Search results for: State space model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9905

Search results for: State space model

8495 Evaluating Performance of Quality-of-Service Routing in Large Networks

Authors: V. Narasimha Raghavan, M. Venkatesh, T. Peer Meera Labbai, Praveen Dwarakanath Prabhu

Abstract:

The performance and complexity of QoS routing depends on the complex interaction between a large set of parameters. This paper investigated the scaling properties of source-directed link-state routing in large core networks. The simulation results show that the routing algorithm, network topology, and link cost function each have a significant impact on the probability of successfully routing new connections. The experiments confirm and extend the findings of other studies, and also lend new insight designing efficient quality-of-service routing policies in large networks.

Keywords: QoS, Link-State Routing, Dijkstra, Path Selection, Path Computation.

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8494 Full-genomic Network Inference for Non-model organisms: A Case Study for the Fungal Pathogen Candida albicans

Authors: Jörg Linde, Ekaterina Buyko, Robert Altwasser, Udo Hahn, Reinhard Guthke

Abstract:

Reverse engineering of full-genomic interaction networks based on compendia of expression data has been successfully applied for a number of model organisms. This study adapts these approaches for an important non-model organism: The major human fungal pathogen Candida albicans. During the infection process, the pathogen can adapt to a wide range of environmental niches and reversibly changes its growth form. Given the importance of these processes, it is important to know how they are regulated. This study presents a reverse engineering strategy able to infer fullgenomic interaction networks for C. albicans based on a linear regression, utilizing the sparseness criterion (LASSO). To overcome the limited amount of expression data and small number of known interactions, we utilize different prior-knowledge sources guiding the network inference to a knowledge driven solution. Since, no database of known interactions for C. albicans exists, we use a textmining system which utilizes full-text research papers to identify known regulatory interactions. By comparing with these known regulatory interactions, we find an optimal value for global modelling parameters weighting the influence of the sparseness criterion and the prior-knowledge. Furthermore, we show that soft integration of prior-knowledge additionally improves the performance. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to state of the art network inference approaches.

Keywords: Pathogen, network inference, text-mining, Candida albicans, LASSO, mutual information, reverse engineering, linear regression, modelling.

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8493 A Block World Problem Based Sudoku Solver

Authors: Luciana Abednego, Cecilia Nugraheni

Abstract:

There are many approaches proposed for solving Sudoku puzzles. One of them is by modelling the puzzles as block world problems. There have been three model for Sudoku solvers based on this approach. Each model expresses Sudoku solver as a parameterized multi agent systems. In this work, we propose a new model which is an improvement over the existing models. This paper presents the development of a Sudoku solver that implements all the proposed models. Some experiments have been conducted to determine the performance of each model.

Keywords: Sudoku puzzle, Sudoku solver, block world problem, parameterized multi agent systems.

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8492 Numerical Applications of Tikhonov Regularization for the Fourier Multiplier Operators

Authors: Fethi Soltani, Adel Almarashi, Idir Mechai

Abstract:

Tikhonov regularization and reproducing kernels are the most popular approaches to solve ill-posed problems in computational mathematics and applications. And the Fourier multiplier operators are an essential tool to extend some known linear transforms in Euclidean Fourier analysis, as: Weierstrass transform, Poisson integral, Hilbert transform, Riesz transforms, Bochner-Riesz mean operators, partial Fourier integral, Riesz potential, Bessel potential, etc. Using the theory of reproducing kernels, we construct a simple and efficient representations for some class of Fourier multiplier operators Tm on the Paley-Wiener space Hh. In addition, we give an error estimate formula for the approximation and obtain some convergence results as the parameters and the independent variables approaches zero. Furthermore, using numerical quadrature integration rules to compute single and multiple integrals, we give numerical examples and we write explicitly the extremal function and the corresponding Fourier multiplier operators.

Keywords: Fourier multiplier operators, Gauss-Kronrod method of integration, Paley-Wiener space, Tikhonov regularization.

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8491 A Nonlinear Parabolic Partial Differential Equation Model for Image Enhancement

Authors: Tudor Barbu

Abstract:

We present a robust nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation (PDE)-based denoising scheme in this article. Our approach is based on a second-order anisotropic diffusion model that is described first. Then, a consistent and explicit numerical approximation algorithm is constructed for this continuous model by using the finite-difference method. Finally, our restoration experiments and method comparison, which prove the effectiveness of this proposed technique, are discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Image denoising and restoration, nonlinear PDE model, anisotropic diffusion, numerical approximation scheme, finite differences.

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8490 Nationalist Approach to the Music Culture in Early Republican Period in Turkey

Authors: Hilmi Yazici

Abstract:

The more homogenized population taken over by the Republic immediately after the Ottoman was being canalized towards the goal of national identity and the historical and cultural structure of the nation was being readdressed and redefined. Modernization and Westernization history of the new Turkey, which started with Ottoman reforms and took its final form with the Kemalist nation-state, politically resulted in transformation from a multinational empire to a “nation-state” and adopted reaching to the level of Western civilizations as a sociology ideal. This objective of change will be achieved, on the one hand, by finding the Turkish culture which was preserved only by the society and by instilling Western civilization to national culture, on the other hand.  In line with this, it is seen that in musical considerations while Turkish folk music was accepted and adopted as an indispensible part of Turkish identity, Turkish classical music was refused on the ground that it was not a part of Turkish identity. Again in this period, it is seen that with the notion of cultural reform, which is a part of “nation building”, the desire to create a national music to be performed with Western techniques brought along deliberate interventions to folk music.

Keywords: Folk song, Nationalism, National music, nation-state, Turkish music.

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8489 Optimal Location of the I/O Point in the Parking System

Authors: Jing Zhang, Jie Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we deal with the optimal I/O point location in an automated parking system. In this system, the S/R machine (storage and retrieve machine) travels independently in vertical and horizontal directions. Based on the characteristics of the parking system and the basic principle of AS/RS system (Automated Storage and Retrieval System), we obtain the continuous model in units of time. For the single command cycle using the randomized storage policy, we calculate the probability density function for the system travel time and thus we develop the travel time model. And we confirm that the travel time model shows a good performance by comparing with discrete case. Finally in this part, we establish the optimal model by minimizing the expected travel time model and it is shown that the optimal location of the I/O point is located at the middle of the left-hand above corner.

Keywords: Parking system, optimal location, response time, S/R machine.

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8488 Case-Based Reasoning: A Hybrid Classification Model Improved with an Expert's Knowledge for High-Dimensional Problems

Authors: Bruno Trstenjak, Dzenana Donko

Abstract:

Data mining and classification of objects is the process of data analysis, using various machine learning techniques, which is used today in various fields of research. This paper presents a concept of hybrid classification model improved with the expert knowledge. The hybrid model in its algorithm has integrated several machine learning techniques (Information Gain, K-means, and Case-Based Reasoning) and the expert’s knowledge into one. The knowledge of experts is used to determine the importance of features. The paper presents the model algorithm and the results of the case study in which the emphasis was put on achieving the maximum classification accuracy without reducing the number of features.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, classification, expert's knowledge, hybrid model.

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8487 A Non-Linear Eddy Viscosity Model for Turbulent Natural Convection in Geophysical Flows

Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

Abstract:

Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD.

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8486 Mechanized Proof of Resistance of Denial of Service Attacks in Voting Protocol with ProVerif

Authors: Bo Meng, Wei Wang

Abstract:

Resistance of denial of service attacks is a key security requirement in voting protocols. Acquisti protocol plays an important role in development of internet voting protocols and claims its security without strong physical assumptions. In this study firstly Acquisti protocol is modeled in extended applied pi calculus, and then resistance of denial of service attacks is proved with ProVerif. The result is that it is not resistance of denial of service attacks because two denial of service attacks are found. Finally we give the method against the denial of service attacks.

Keywords: Applied pi calculus, protocol state, symbolic model, availability.

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8485 Multiple Object Tracking using Particle Swarm Optimization

Authors: Chen-Chien Hsu, Guo-Tang Dai

Abstract:

This paper presents a particle swarm optimization (PSO) based approach for multiple object tracking based on histogram matching. To start with, gray-level histograms are calculated to establish a feature model for each of the target object. The difference between the gray-level histogram corresponding to each particle in the search space and the target object is used as the fitness value. Multiple swarms are created depending on the number of the target objects under tracking. Because of the efficiency and simplicity of the PSO algorithm for global optimization, target objects can be tracked as iterations continue. Experimental results confirm that the proposed PSO algorithm can rapidly converge, allowing real-time tracking of each target object. When the objects being tracked move outside the tracking range, global search capability of the PSO resumes to re-trace the target objects.

Keywords: multiple object tracking, particle swarm optimization, gray-level histogram, image

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8484 Estimating the Runoff Using the Simple Tank Model and Comparing it with the SCS-CN Model - A Case Study of the Dez River Basin

Authors: H. Alaleh, N. Hedayat, A. Alaleh, H. Ayazi, A. Ruhani

Abstract:

Run-offs are considered as important hydrological factors in feasibility studies of river engineering and irrigation-related projects under arid and semi-arid condition. Flood control is one of the crucial factor, the management of which while mitigates its destructive consequences, abstracts considerable volume of renewable water resources. The methodology applied here was based on Mizumura, which applied a mathematical model for simple tank to simulate the rainfall-run-off process in a particular water basin using the data from the observational hydrograph. The model was applied in the Dez River water basin adjacent to Greater Dezful region, Iran in order to simulate and estimate the floods. Results indicated that the calculated hydrographs using the simple tank method, SCS-CN model and the observation hydrographs had a close proximity. It was also found that on average the flood time and discharge peaks in the simple tank were closer to the observational data than the CN method. On the other hand, the calculated flood volume in the CN model was significantly closer to the observational data than the simple tank model.

Keywords: Simple tank, Dez River, run-off, lag time, excess rainfall.

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8483 Quantitative Study for Exchange of Gases from Open Sewer Channel to Atmosphere

Authors: Asif Mansoor, Nasiruddin Khan, Noreen Jamil

Abstract:

In this communication a quantitative modeling approach is applied to construct model for the exchange of gases from open sewer channel to the atmosphere. The data for the exchange of gases of the open sewer channel for the year January 1979 to December 2006 is utilized for the construction of the model. The study reveals that stream flow of the open sewer channel exchanges the toxic gases continuously with time varying scale. We find that the quantitative modeling approach is more parsimonious model for these exchanges. The usual diagnostic tests are applied for the model adequacy. This model is beneficial for planner and managerial bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to overcome future environmental problems.

Keywords: Open sewer channel, Industrial waste, Municipalwaste, Gases exchange, Atmosphere, Stochastic models, Diagnosticschecks.

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8482 An Anisotropic Model of Damage and Unilateral Effect for Brittle Materials

Authors: José Julio de C. Pituba

Abstract:

This work deals with the initial applications and formulation of an anisotropic plastic-damage constitutive model proposed for non-linear analysis of reinforced concrete structures submitted to a loading with change of the sign. The original constitutive model is based on the fundamental hypothesis of energy equivalence between real and continuous medium following the concepts of the Continuum Damage Mechanics. The concrete is assumed as an initial elastic isotropic medium presenting anisotropy, permanent strains and bimodularity (distinct elastic responses whether traction or compression stress states prevail) induced by damage evolution. In order to take into account the bimodularity, two damage tensors governing the rigidity in tension or compression regimes are introduced. Then, some conditions are introduced in the original version of the model in order to simulate the damage unilateral effect. The three-dimensional version of the proposed model is analyzed in order to validate its formulation when compared to micromechanical theory. The one-dimensional version of the model is applied in the analyses of a reinforced concrete beam submitted to a loading with change of the sign. Despite the parametric identification problems, the initial applications show the good performance of the model.

Keywords: Damage model, plastic strain, unilateral effect.

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8481 CFD Simulation of Condensing Vapor Bubble using VOF Model

Authors: Seong-Su Jeon, Seong-Jin Kim, Goon-Cherl Park

Abstract:

In this study, direct numerical simulation for the bubble condensation in the subcooled boiling flow was performed. The main goal was to develop the CFD modeling for the bubble condensation and to evaluate the accuracy of the VOF model with the developed CFD modeling. CFD modeling for the bubble condensation was developed by modeling the source terms in the governing equations of VOF model using UDF. In the modeling, the amount of condensation was determined using the interfacial heat transfer coefficient obtained from the bubble velocity, liquid temperature and bubble diameter every time step. To evaluate the VOF model using the CFD modeling for the bubble condensation, CFD simulation results were compared with SNU experimental results such as bubble volume and shape, interfacial area, bubble diameter and bubble velocity. Simulation results predicted well the behavior of the actual condensing bubble. Therefore, it can be concluded that the VOF model using the CFD modeling for the bubble condensation will be a useful computational fluid dynamics tool for analyzing the behavior of the condensing bubble in a wide range of the subcooled boiling flow.

Keywords: Bubble condensation, CFD modeling, Subcooled boiling flow, VOF model.

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8480 A Novel VLSI Architecture of Hybrid Image Compression Model based on Reversible Blockade Transform

Authors: C. Hemasundara Rao, M. Madhavi Latha

Abstract:

Image compression can improve the performance of the digital systems by reducing time and cost in image storage and transmission without significant reduction of the image quality. Furthermore, the discrete cosine transform has emerged as the new state-of-the art standard for image compression. In this paper, a hybrid image compression technique based on reversible blockade transform coding is proposed. The technique, implemented over regions of interest (ROIs), is based on selection of the coefficients that belong to different transforms, depending on the coefficients is proposed. This method allows: (1) codification of multiple kernals at various degrees of interest, (2) arbitrary shaped spectrum,and (3) flexible adjustment of the compression quality of the image and the background. No standard modification for JPEG2000 decoder was required. The method was applied over different types of images. Results show a better performance for the selected regions, when image coding methods were employed for the whole set of images. We believe that this method is an excellent tool for future image compression research, mainly on images where image coding can be of interest, such as the medical imaging modalities and several multimedia applications. Finally VLSI implementation of proposed method is shown. It is also shown that the kernal of Hartley and Cosine transform gives the better performance than any other model.

Keywords: VLSI, Discrete Cosine Transform, JPEG, Hartleytransform, Radon Transform

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8479 New Dynamic Constitutive Model for OFHC Copper Film

Authors: Jin Sung Kim, Hoon Huh

Abstract:

The material properties of OFHC copper film was investigated with the High-Speed Material Micro Testing Machine (HSMMTM) at the high strain rates. The rate-dependent stress-strain curves from the experiment and the Johnson−Cook curve fitting showed large discrepancies as the plastic strain increases since the constitutive model implies no rate-dependent strain hardening effect. A new constitutive model was proposed in consideration of rate-dependent strain hardening effect. The strain rate hardening term in the new constitutive model consists of the strain rate sensitivity coefficients of the yield strength and strain hardening.

Keywords: Rate dependent material properties, Dynamic constitutive model, OFHC copper film, Strain rate.

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8478 Development of NOx Emission Model for a Tangentially Fired Acid Incinerator

Authors: Elangeshwaran Pathmanathan, Rosdiazli Ibrahim, Vijanth Sagayan Asirvadam

Abstract:

This paper aims to develop a NOx emission model of an acid gas incinerator using Nelder-Mead least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR). Malaysia DOE is actively imposing the Clean Air Regulation to mandate the installation of analytical instrumentation known as Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS) to report emission level online to DOE . As a hardware based analyzer, CEMS is expensive, maintenance intensive and often unreliable. Therefore, software predictive technique is often preferred and considered as a feasible alternative to replace the CEMS for regulatory compliance. The LS-SVR model is built based on the emissions from an acid gas incinerator that operates in a LNG Complex. Simulated Annealing (SA) is first used to determine the initial hyperparameters which are then further optimized based on the performance of the model using Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm. The LS-SVR model is shown to outperform a benchmark model based on backpropagation neural networks (BPNN) in both training and testing data.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, industrial pollution, predictive algorithms, support vector machines

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8477 Hydrodynamic Force on Acoustically Driven Bubble in Sulfuric Acid

Authors: Zeinab Galavani, Reza Rezaei-Nasirabad, Rasoul Sadighi-Bonabi

Abstract:

Using a force balanced translational-radial dynamics, phase space of the moving single bubble sonoluminescence (m- SBSL) in 85% wt sulfuric acid has been numerically calculated. This phase space is compared with that of single bubble sonoluminescence (SBSL) in pure water which has been calculated by using the mere radial dynamics. It is shown that in 85% wt sulfuric acid, in a general agreement with experiment, the bubble-s positional instability threshold lays under the shape instability threshold. At the onset of spatial instability of moving sonoluminescing (SL) bubble in 85% wt sulfuric acid, temporal effects of the hydrodynamic force on the bubble translational-radial dynamics have been investigated. The appearance of non-zero history force on the moving SL bubble is because of proper condition which was produced by high viscosity of acid. Around the moving bubble collapse due to the rapid contraction of the bubble wall, the inertial based added mass force overcomes the viscous based history force and induces acceleration on the bubble translational motion.

Keywords: Bjerknes force, History force, Reynolds number, Sonoluminescence.

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8476 Order Partitioning in Hybrid MTS/MTO Contexts using Fuzzy ANP

Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

A novel concept to balance and tradeoff between make-to-stock and make-to-order has been hybrid MTS/MTO production context. One of the most important decisions involved in the hybrid MTS/MTO environment is determining whether a product is manufactured to stock, to order, or hybrid MTS/MTO strategy. In this paper, a model based on analytic network process is developed to tackle the addressed decision. Since the regarded decision deals with the uncertainty and ambiguity of data as well as experts- and managers- linguistic judgments, the proposed model is equipped with fuzzy sets theory. An important attribute of the model is its generality due to diverse decision factors which are elicited from the literature and developed by the authors. Finally, the model is validated by applying to a real case study to reveal how the proposed model can actually be implemented.

Keywords: Fuzzy analytic network process, Hybrid make-tostock/ make-to-order, Order partitioning, Production planning.

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8475 Software Test Data Generation using Ant Colony Optimization

Authors: Huaizhong Li, C.Peng Lam

Abstract:

State-based testing is frequently used in software testing. Test data generation is one of the key issues in software testing. A properly generated test suite may not only locate the errors in a software system, but also help in reducing the high cost associated with software testing. It is often desired that test data in the form of test sequences within a test suite can be automatically generated to achieve required test coverage. This paper proposes an Ant Colony Optimization approach to test data generation for the state-based software testing.

Keywords: Software testing, ant colony optimization, UML.

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8474 A Study of Thermal Convection in Two Porous Layers Governed by Brinkman's Model in Upper Layer and Darcy's Model in Lower Layer

Authors: M. S. Al-Qurashi

Abstract:

This work examines thermal convection in two porous layers. Flow in the upper layer is governed by Brinkman-s equations model and in the lower layer is governed by Darcy-s model. Legendre polynomials are used to obtain numerical solution when the lower layer is heated from below.

Keywords: Brinkman's law, Darcy's law, porous layers, Legendre polynomials, the Oberbeck-Boussineq approximation.

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8473 Application of Fractional Model Predictive Control to Thermal System

Authors: Aymen Rhouma, Khaled Hcheichi, Sami Hafsi

Abstract:

The article presents an application of Fractional Model Predictive Control (FMPC) to a fractional order thermal system using Controlled Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (CARIMA) model obtained by discretization of a continuous fractional differential equation. Moreover, the output deviation approach is exploited to design the K -step ahead output predictor, and the corresponding control law is obtained by solving a quadratic cost function. Experiment results onto a thermal system are presented to emphasize the performances and the effectiveness of the proposed predictive controller.

Keywords: Fractional model predictive control, fractional order systems, thermal system.

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8472 Modeling of Statistically Multiplexed Non Uniform Activity VBR Video

Authors: J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

This paper reports the feasibility of the ARMA model to describe a bursty video source transmitting over a AAL5 ATM link (VBR traffic). The traffic represents the activity of the action movie "Lethal Weapon 3" transmitted over the ATM network using the Fore System AVA-200 ATM video codec with a peak rate of 100 Mbps and a frame rate of 25. The model parameters were estimated for a single video source and independently multiplexed video sources. It was found that the model ARMA (2, 4) is well-suited for the real data in terms of average rate traffic profile, probability density function, autocorrelation function, burstiness measure, and the pole-zero distribution of the filter model.

Keywords: ARMA, ATM networks, burstiness, multimediatraffic, VBR video.

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8471 An Automation of Check Focusing on CRUD for Requirements Analysis Model in UML

Authors: Shinpei Ogata, Yoshitaka Aoki, Hirotaka Okuda, Saeko Matsuura

Abstract:

A key to success of high quality software development is to define valid and feasible requirements specification. We have proposed a method of model-driven requirements analysis using Unified Modeling Language (UML). The main feature of our method is to automatically generate a Web user interface mock-up from UML requirements analysis model so that we can confirm validity of input/output data for each page and page transition on the system by directly operating the mock-up. This paper proposes a support method to check the validity of a data life cycle by using a model checking tool “UPPAAL" focusing on CRUD (Create, Read, Update and Delete). Exhaustive checking improves the quality of requirements analysis model which are validated by the customers through automatically generated mock-up. The effectiveness of our method is discussed by a case study of requirements modeling of two small projects which are a library management system and a supportive sales system for text books in a university.

Keywords: CRUD, Model Checking, Model Driven Development, Requirements Analysis, Unified Modeling Language, UPPAAL.

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8470 Combustion Analysis of Suspended Sodium Droplet

Authors: T. Watanabe

Abstract:

Combustion analysis of suspended sodium droplet is performed by solving numerically the Navier-Stokes equations and the energy conservation equations. The combustion model consists of the pre-ignition and post-ignition models. The reaction rate for the pre-ignition model is based on the chemical kinetics, while that for the post-ignition model is based on the mass transfer rate of oxygen. The calculated droplet temperature is shown to be in good agreement with the existing experimental data. The temperature field in and around the droplet is obtained as well as the droplet shape variation, and the present numerical model is confirmed to be effective for the combustion analysis.

Keywords: Combustion, analysis, sodium, droplet.

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8469 Analysis of a Secondary Autothermal Reformer Using a Thermodynamic POX Model

Authors: Akbar Zamaniyan, Alireza Behroozsarand, Hadi Ebrahimi

Abstract:

Partial oxidation (POX) of light hydrocarbons (e.g. methane) is occurred in the first part of the autothermal reformer (ATR). The results of the detailed modeling of the reformer based on the thermodynamic model of the POX and 1D heterogeneous catalytic model for the fixed bed section are considered here. According to the results, the overall performance of the ATR can be improved by changing the important feed parameters.

Keywords: Autothermal Reformer, Partial Oxidation, Mathematical Modeling, Process Simulation, Syngas.

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8468 Everyday Life in the City of Kyzylorda and Almaty in the 20-30-s of the XX Century (State Health Services)

Authors: Zhalmagambetov Yerlanbek, Assymova Dariya, Tashieva Saltanat, and Aliya Bolatkhan

Abstract:

The relevance of the study of everyday life in Almaty and Kyzylorda are associated with the emergence of the modern trends in historiography and socializing areas of government reform. The relevance is due to the fact that in the early twentieth century Kyzylorda and Almaty began to develop as a city and this period has a special place in the life of the state. An interesting aspect of the everyday life of the inhabitants of the new city, which was built in the era of Stalin's Five-Year Plans, can be examined through the eyes of the Soviet people living in a specific environment, reflecting the life of the citizens. The study of industrialization of the Soviet Union and the attention paid to new developments in the first five years of everyday aspects as the impact of the modernization of the 1930s was one of the decisive factors in the lives of residents. Among these factors, we would like to highlight the medical field, which is the basis of all human life, specifically focusing on the state of medicine in Alma-Ata in the first 20-30-years of the twentieth century, and analyze the different aspects of human life, determining the quality of medical care to the population during this period.

Keywords: Alma Ata, capital, epidemic diseases, health care, Kyzylorda, the USSR, Vernyj.

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8467 A Simplified Higher-Order Markov Chain Model

Authors: Chao Wang, Ting-Zhu Huang, Chen Jia

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a simplified higher-order Markov chain model for multiple categorical data sequences also called as simplified higher-order multivariate Markov chain model.

Keywords: Higher-order multivariate Markov chain model, Categorical data sequences, Multivariate Markov chain.

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8466 A Hybrid Model of ARIMA and Multiple Polynomial Regression for Uncertainties Modeling of a Serial Production Line

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid b. Ali, Loh Wei Ping, Mohsen Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Keywords: ARIMA, multiple polynomial regression, production throughput, uncertainties

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