Search results for: Crop yield prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1872

Search results for: Crop yield prediction

672 Development of AA2024 Matrix Composites Reinforced with Micro Yttrium through Cold Compaction with Superior Mechanical Properties

Authors: C. H. S. Vidyasagar, D. B. Karunakar

Abstract:

In this present work, five different composite samples with AA2024 as matrix and varying amounts of yttrium (0.1-0.5 wt.%) as reinforcement are developed through cold compaction. The microstructures of the developed composite samples revealed that the yttrium reinforcement caused grain refinement up to 0.3 wt.% and beyond which the refinement is not effective. The microstructure revealed Al2Cu precipitation which strengthened the composite up to 0.3 wt.% yttrium reinforcement. Upon further increase in yttrium reinforcement, the intermetallics and the precipitation coarsen and their corresponding strengthening effect decreases. The mechanical characterization revealed that the composite sample reinforced with 0.3 wt.% yttrium showed highest mechanical properties like 82 HV of hardness, 276 MPa Ultimate Tensile Strength (UTS), 229 MPa Yield Strength (YS) and an elongation (EL) of 18.9% respectively. However, the relative density of the developed composites decreased with the increase in yttrium reinforcement.

Keywords: Mechanical properties, AA 2024 matrix, yttrium reinforcement, cold compaction, precipitation.

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671 New Approach for Load Modeling

Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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670 Energy Evaluation and Utilization of Cassava Peel for Lactating Dairy Cows

Authors: Pipat Lounglawan, Yutthapong Sornwongkaew, Wassana Lounglawan, Wisitiporn Suksombat

Abstract:

The experiment was then conducted to investigate the effect of cassava peel addition in the concentrate on the performance of lactating dairy cows. Twenty four Holstein Friesian crossbred (>87.5% Holstein Friesian) lactating dairy cows in mid lactation; averaging 12.2+2.1 kg of milk, 119+45 days in milk, 44.1+6.2 months old and 449+33 kg live weight, were stratified for milk yield, days in milk, age, stage of lactation and body weight, and then randomly allocated to three treatment groups. The first, second and third groups were fed concentrates containing the respective cassava peel, 0, 20 and 40%. All cows were fed ad libitum corn silage and freely access to clean water. Dry matter intake, 4%FCM, milk composition and body weight change were affected (P<0.05) by the third treatments (40%). The present study indicated that 20% cassava peel can be used in the concentrate for lactating dairy cows.

Keywords: Cassava peel, Energy evaluation, Milk production, Dairy cattle

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669 New Multi-Solid Thermodynamic Model for the Prediction of Wax Formation

Authors: Ehsan Ghanaei, Feridun Esmaeilzadeh, Jamshid Fathi Kaljahi

Abstract:

In the previous multi-solid models,¤ò approach is used for the calculation of fugacity in the liquid phase. For the first time, in the proposed multi-solid thermodynamic model,γ approach has been used for calculation of fugacity in the liquid mixture. Therefore, some activity coefficient models have been studied that the results show that the predictive Wilson model is more appropriate than others. The results demonstrate γ approach using the predictive Wilson model is in more agreement with experimental data than the previous multi-solid models. Also, by this method, generates a new approach for presenting stability analysis in phase equilibrium calculations. Meanwhile, the run time in γ approach is less than the previous methods used ¤ò approach. The results of the new model present 0.75 AAD % (Average Absolute Deviation) from the experimental data which is less than the results error of the previous multi-solid models obviously.

Keywords: Multi-solid thermodynamic model, PredictiveWilson model, Wax formation.

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668 Evaluation of Attribute II Bt Sweet Corn Resistance and Reduced-Risk Insecticide Applications for Control of Corn Earworm

Authors: R. Weinzierl, R. Estes, N. Tinsley, M. Keshlaf

Abstract:

The corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea Boddie, is a serious pest of corn. Larval feeding in ear tips destroys kernels and allows growth of fungi and production of mycotoxins. Infested sweet corn is not marketable. Development of improved transgenic hybrids expressing insecticidal toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) may limit or prevent crop losses. The effectiveness of Attribute® II Bt resistance and applications of Voliam Xpress insecticide were evaluated for effectiveness in controlling corn earworm in plots near Urbana, IL, USA, in 2013. Where no insecticides were applied, ear infestations and kernel damage in Attribute® II ‘Protector’ plots were consistently lower (near zero) than in plots of the non-Bt isoline ‘Garrison.’ Multiple applications of Voliam Xpress significantly reduced the number of corn earworm larvae and kernel damage in the Garrison plots, but infestations and damage in these plots were greater than in Protectorplots that did not receive insecticide applications. Our results indicate that Attribute® II Bt resistance is more effective than multiple applications of an insecticide for preventing losses caused by corn earworm in sweet corn.

Keywords: Bacillus thuringiensis, Helicoverpa zea, insect pest management, transgenic sweet corn.

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667 A Reduced-Bit Multiplication Algorithm for Digital Arithmetic

Authors: Harpreet Singh Dhillon, Abhijit Mitra

Abstract:

A reduced-bit multiplication algorithm based on the ancient Vedic multiplication formulae is proposed in this paper. Both the Vedic multiplication formulae, Urdhva tiryakbhyam and Nikhilam, are first discussed in detail. Urdhva tiryakbhyam, being a general multiplication formula, is equally applicable to all cases of multiplication. It is applied to the digital arithmetic and is shown to yield a multiplier architecture which is very similar to the popular array multiplier. Due to its structure, it leads to a high carry propagation delay in case of multiplication of large numbers. Nikhilam Sutra, on the other hand, is more efficient in the multiplication of large numbers as it reduces the multiplication of two large numbers to that of two smaller numbers. The framework of the proposed algorithm is taken from this Sutra and is further optimized by use of some general arithmetic operations such as expansion and bit-shifting to take advantage of bit-reduction in multiplication. We illustrate the proposed algorithm by reducing a general 4x4-bit multiplication to a single 2 x 2-bit multiplication operation.

Keywords: Multiplication, algorithm, Vedic mathematics, digital arithmetic, reduced-bit.

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666 Kalman Filter Gain Elimination in Linear Estimation

Authors: Nicholas D. Assimakis

Abstract:

In linear estimation, the traditional Kalman filter uses the Kalman filter gain in order to produce estimation and prediction of the n-dimensional state vector using the m-dimensional measurement vector. The computation of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In this paper, a variation of the Kalman filter eliminating the Kalman filter gain is proposed. In the time varying case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix and the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In the time invariant case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix in every iteration. The proposed Kalman filter gain elimination algorithm may be faster than the conventional Kalman filter, depending on the model dimensions.

Keywords: Discrete time, linear estimation, Kalman filter, Kalman filter gain.

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665 NFκB Pathway Modeling for Optimal Drug Combination Therapy on Multiple Myeloma

Authors: Huiming Peng, Jianguo Wen, Hongwei Li, Jeff Chang, Xiaobo Zhou

Abstract:

NFκB activation plays a crucial role in anti-apoptotic responses in response to the apoptotic signaling during tumor necrosis factor (TNFa) stimulation in Multiple Myeloma (MM). Although several drugs have been found effective for the treatment of MM by mainly inhibiting NFκB pathway, there are no any quantitative or qualitative results of comparison assessment on inhibition effect between different single drugs or drug combinations. Computational modeling is becoming increasingly indispensable for applied biological research mainly because it can provide strong quantitative predicting power. In this study, a novel computational pathway modeling approach is employed to comparably assess the inhibition effects of specific single drugs and drug combinations on the NFκB pathway in MM, especially the prediction of synergistic drug combinations.

Keywords: Computational modeling, drug combination, inhibition effect, multiple myeloma, NFkB pathway.

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664 Prediction-Based Midterm Operation Planning for Energy Management of Exhibition Hall

Authors: Doseong Eom, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

Large exhibition halls require a lot of energy to maintain comfortable atmosphere for the visitors viewing inside. One way of reducing the energy cost is to have thermal energy storage systems installed so that the thermal energy can be stored in the middle of night when the energy price is low and then used later when the price is high. To minimize the overall energy cost, however, we should be able to decide how much energy to save during which time period exactly. If we can foresee future energy load and the corresponding cost, we will be able to make such decisions reasonably. In this paper, we use machine learning technique to obtain models for predicting weather conditions and the number of visitors on hourly basis for the next day. Based on the energy load thus predicted, we build a cost-optimal daily operation plan for the thermal energy storage systems and cooling and heating facilities through simulation-based optimization.

Keywords: Building energy management, machine learning, simulation-based optimization, operation planning.

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663 A New Analytical Approach to Reconstruct Residual Stresses Due to Turning Process

Authors: G.H. Farrahi, S.A. Faghidian, D.J. Smith

Abstract:

A thin layer on the component surface can be found with high tensile residual stresses, due to turning operations, which can dangerously affect the fatigue performance of the component. In this paper an analytical approach is presented to reconstruct the residual stress field from a limited incomplete set of measurements. Airy stress function is used as the primary unknown to directly solve the equilibrium equations and satisfying the boundary conditions. In this new method there exists the flexibility to impose the physical conditions that govern the behavior of residual stress to achieve a meaningful complete stress field. The analysis is also coupled to a least squares approximation and a regularization method to provide stability of the inverse problem. The power of this new method is then demonstrated by analyzing some experimental measurements and achieving a good agreement between the model prediction and the results obtained from residual stress measurement.

Keywords: Residual stress, Limited measurements, Inverse problems, Turning process.

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662 Finite Element Modeling to Predict the Effect of Nose Radius on the Equivalent Strain (PEEQ) for Titanium Alloy (Ti-6Al-4V)

Authors: Moaz H. Ali, M. N. M. Ansari, Pang Jing Shen

Abstract:

In present work, prediction the effect of nose radius, rz (mm) on the equivalent strain (PEEQ) and surface finish during the machining of titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) through orthogonal cutting process. The results were performed at several of the nose radiuses, rz (mm) while the cutting speed, vc (m/min), feed rate, f (mm/tooth) and depth of cut, d (mm) were remained constant. The equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) was estimated by using finite element modeling (FEM) and applied through ABAQUS/EXPLICIT software. The simulation results led to conclude that the equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) was increased and surface roughness (Ra) decreased when increasing nose radius, rz (mm) during the machining of titanium alloy (Ti–6Al–4V) in dry cutting conditions.

Keywords: Finite element modeling (FEM), nose radius, plastic strain (PEEQ), titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V).

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661 Graft Copolymerization of Methyl Methacrylate onto Cellulose in Homogeneous Medium – Effect of Solvent and Initiator

Authors: B. Tosh, C. R. Routray

Abstract:

Homogeneous graft copolymerization of methyl methacrylate (MMA) onto cellulose was carried out in N, N – dimethyl acetamide/LiCl (DMAc/LiCl) and dimethyl sulfoxide/ paraformaldehyde (DMSO/PF) solvent system taking ceric ammonium nitrate (CAN), benzoyl peroxide (BPO) and tin (II)-2-ethyl hexanoate [Sn(Oct)2] as initiators. Different grafting parameters like graft yield (GY), grafting efficiency (GE) and total conversion of monomer to polymer (TC) were evaluated at different reaction conditions of temperature, time, and variation of the amount of monomer and initiator. The viscosity average molecular weight of grafted PMMA and number of grafts per cellulose chain were also calculated. The products were characterized by FT-IR and 1H-NMR analyses and possible reaction mechanisms were deduced. Thermal degradation of the grafted products was also studied by thermo-gravimetric analysis (TG) and differential thermo-gravimetry (DTG).

Keywords: Grafting, grafting efficiency, homogeneous medium, methyl methacrylate.

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660 Application of Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Pressure Distribution of a Plunging Airfoil

Authors: F. Rasi Maezabadi, M. Masdari, M. R. Soltani

Abstract:

Series of experimental tests were conducted on a section of a 660 kW wind turbine blade to measure the pressure distribution of this model oscillating in plunging motion. In order to minimize the amount of data required to predict aerodynamic loads of the airfoil, a General Regression Neural Network, GRNN, was trained using the measured experimental data. The network once proved to be accurate enough, was used to predict the flow behavior of the airfoil for the desired conditions. Results showed that with using a few of the acquired data, the trained neural network was able to predict accurate results with minimal errors when compared with the corresponding measured values. Therefore with employing this trained network the aerodynamic coefficients of the plunging airfoil, are predicted accurately at different oscillation frequencies, amplitudes, and angles of attack; hence reducing the cost of tests while achieving acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: Airfoil, experimental, GRNN, Neural Network, Plunging.

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659 Reverse Impact of Temperature as Climate Factor on Milk Production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari

Authors: V. Jafari, M. Jafari

Abstract:

When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.

Keywords: ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari, climate change, impacts, Iran, milk production.

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658 A Meta-Heuristic Algorithm for Set Covering Problem Based on Gravity

Authors: S. Raja Balachandar, K. Kannan

Abstract:

A new Meta heuristic approach called "Randomized gravitational emulation search algorithm (RGES)" for solving large size set covering problems has been designed. This algorithm is found upon introducing randomization concept along with the two of the four primary parameters -velocity- and -gravity- in physics. A new heuristic operator is introduced in the domain of RGES to maintain feasibility specifically for the set covering problem to yield best solutions. The performance of this algorithm has been evaluated on a large set of benchmark problems from OR-library. Computational results showed that the randomized gravitational emulation search algorithm - based heuristic is capable of producing high quality solutions. The performance of this heuristic when compared with other existing heuristic algorithms is found to be excellent in terms of solution quality.

Keywords: Set covering problem, velocity, gravitational force, Newton's law, meta heuristic, combinatorial optimization.

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657 Rheological Behaviors of Crude Oil in the Presence of Water

Authors: Madjid Meriem-Benziane, Hamou Zahloul

Abstract:

The rheological properties of light crude oil and its mixture with water were investigated experimentally. These rheological properties include steady flow behavior, yield stress, transient flow behavior, and viscoelastic behavior. A RheoStress RS600 rheometer was employed in all of the rheological examination tests. The light crude oil exhibits a Newtonian and for emulsion exhibits a non-Newtonian shear thinning behavior over the examined shear rate range of 0.1–120 s-1. In first time, a series of samples of crude oil from the Algerian Sahara has been tested and the results expressed in terms of τ=f(γ) have demonstrated their Newtonian character for the temperature included in [20°C, 70°C]. In second time and at T=20°C, the oil-water emulsions (30%, 50% and 70%) by volume of water), thermodynamically stable, have demonstrated a non-Newtonian rheological behavior that is to say, Herschel-Bulkley and Bingham types. For each type of crude oil-water emulsion, the rheological parameters are calculated by numerical treatment of results.

Keywords: Crude oil Algerian, Emulsion, Newtonian, Non- Newtonian, viscosity.

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656 The Effects of Cow Manure Treated by Fruit Beetle Larvae, Waxworms and Tiger Worms on Plant Growth in Relation to Its Use as Potting Compost

Authors: Waleed S. Alwaneen

Abstract:

Dairy industry is flourishing in world to provide milk and milk products to local population. Besides milk products, dairy industries also generate a substantial amount of cow manure that significantly affects the environment. Moreover, heat produced during the decomposition of the cow manure adversely affects the crop germination. Different companies are producing vermicompost using different species of worms/larvae to overcome the harmful effects using fresh manure. Tiger worm treatment enhanced plant growth, especially in the compost-manure ratio (75% compost, 25% cow manure), followed by a ratio of 50% compost, 50% cow manure.  Results also indicated that plant growth in Waxworm treated manure was weak as compared to plant growth in compost treated with Fruit Beetle (FB), Waxworms (WW), and Control (C) especially in the compost (25% compost, 75% cow manure) and 100% cow manure where there was no growth at all. Freshplant weight, fresh leaf weight and fresh root weight were significantly higher in the compost treated with Tiger worms in (75% compost, 25% cow manure); no evidence was seen for any significant differences in the dry root weight measurement between FB, Tiger worms (TW), WW, Control (C) in all composts. TW produced the best product, especially at the compost ratio of 75% compost, 25% cow manure followed by 50% compost, 50% cow manure.

Keywords: Fruit beetle, tiger worms, waxworms, control.

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655 Finite Element Modeling of Rotating Mixing of Toothpaste

Authors: Inamullah Bhatti, Ahsanullah Baloch, Khadija Qureshi

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to examine the shear thinning behaviour of mixing flow of non-Newtonian fluid like toothpaste in the dissolution container with rotating stirrer. The problem under investigation is related to the chemical industry. Mixing of fluid is performed in a cylindrical container with rotating stirrer, where stirrer is eccentrically placed on the lid of the container. For the simulation purpose the associated motion of the fluid is considered as revolving of the container, with stick stirrer. For numerical prediction, a time-stepping finite element algorithm in a cylindrical polar coordinate system is adopted based on semi-implicit Taylor-Galerkin/pressure-correction scheme. Numerical solutions are obtained for non-Newtonian fluids employing power law model. Variations with power law index have been analysed, with respect to the flow structure and pressure drop.

Keywords: finite element simulation, mixing fluid, rheology, rotating flow, toothpaste

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654 The Effect of Material Properties and Volumetric Changes in Phase Transformation to the Final Residual Stress of Welding Process

Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi

Abstract:

The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo- Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.

Keywords: Residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM.

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653 A Neural Network Approach in Predicting the Blood Glucose Level for Diabetic Patients

Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Ong Pauline, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder, where the improper management of the blood glucose level in the diabetic patients will lead to the risk of heart attack, kidney disease and renal failure. This paper attempts to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the advancing blood glucose levels of the diabetic patients, by combining principal component analysis and wavelet neural network. The proposed system makes separate blood glucose prediction in the morning, afternoon, evening and night intervals, using dataset from one patient covering a period of 77 days. Comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy with other neural network models, which use the same dataset are made. The comparison results showed overall improved accuracy, which indicates the effectiveness of this proposed system.

Keywords: Diabetes Mellitus, principal component analysis, time-series, wavelet neural network.

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652 Prediction of Phenolic Compound Migration Process through Soil Media using Artificial Neural Network Approach

Authors: Supriya Pal, Kalyan Adhikari, Somnath Mukherjee, Sudipta Ghosh

Abstract:

This study presents the application of artificial neural network for modeling the phenolic compound migration through vertical soil column. A three layered feed forward neural network with back propagation training algorithm was developed using forty eight experimental data sets obtained from laboratory fixed bed vertical column tests. The input parameters used in the model were the influent concentration of phenol(mg/L) on the top end of the soil column, depth of the soil column (cm), elapsed time after phenol injection (hr), percentage of clay (%), percentage of silt (%) in soils. The output of the ANN was the effluent phenol concentration (mg/L) from the bottom end of the soil columns. The ANN predicted results were compared with the experimental results of the laboratory tests and the accuracy of the ANN model was evaluated.

Keywords: Modeling, Neural Networks, Phenol, Soil media

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651 Application of Turbulence Modeling in Computational Fluid Dynamics for Airfoil Simulations

Authors: Mohammed Bilal

Abstract:

The precise prediction of aerodynamic behavior is necessary for the design and optimization of airfoils for a variety of applications. Turbulence, a phenomenon of complex and irregular flow, significantly affects the aerodynamic properties of airfoils. Therefore, turbulence modeling is essential for accurately predicting the behavior of airfoils in simulations. This study investigates five commonly employed turbulence models: Spalart-Allmaras (SA) model, k-epsilon model, k-omega model, Reynolds Stress Model (RSM), and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model. The paper includes a comparison of the models' precision, computational expense, and applicability to various flow conditions. The strengths and weaknesses of each model are highlighted, allowing researchers and engineers to make informed decisions regarding simulations of specific airfoils. Unquestionably, the continuous development of turbulence modeling will contribute to further improvements in airfoil design and optimization, which will be advantageous to numerous industries.

Keywords: Computational fluid dynamics, airfoil, turbulence, aircraft.

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650 Hot-Spot Blob Merging for Real-Time Image Segmentation

Authors: K. Kraus, M. Uiberacker, O. Martikainen, R. Reda

Abstract:

One of the major, difficult tasks in automated video surveillance is the segmentation of relevant objects in the scene. Current implementations often yield inconsistent results on average from frame to frame when trying to differentiate partly occluding objects. This paper presents an efficient block-based segmentation algorithm which is capable of separating partly occluding objects and detecting shadows. It has been proven to perform in real time with a maximum duration of 47.48 ms per frame (for 8x8 blocks on a 720x576 image) with a true positive rate of 89.2%. The flexible structure of the algorithm enables adaptations and improvements with little effort. Most of the parameters correspond to relative differences between quantities extracted from the image and should therefore not depend on scene and lighting conditions. Thus presenting a performance oriented segmentation algorithm which is applicable in all critical real time scenarios.

Keywords: Image segmentation, Model-based, Region growing, Blob Analysis, Occlusion, Shadow detection, Intelligent videosurveillance.

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649 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries

Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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648 Study of Salinity Stress and Calcium Interaction on Morphological and Physiological Traits of Vicia villosa under Hydroponic Condition

Authors: Raheleh Khademian, Roghayeh Aminian

Abstract:

For the study of salinity stress on Vicia villosa and calcium effect for modulation of that, an experiment was conducted under hydroponic condition, and some important morphological and physiological characteristics were evaluated. This experiment was conducted as a factorial based on randomized complete design with three replications. The treatments include salinity stress in three levels (0, 50, and 100 mM NaCl) and calcium in two levels (content in Hoagland solution and double content). The results showed that all morphological and physiological traits include root and shoot length, root and shoot wet and dry weight, leaf area, leaf chlorophyll content, RWC, CMS, and biological yield was significantly different from the control and is affected by the salinity stress severely. But, calcium effect on them was not significant despite of decreasing salinity effect.

Keywords: Vicia villossa, salinity stress, calcium, hydroponic.

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647 Tools for Analysis and Optimization of Standalone Green Microgrids

Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

Abstract:

Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.

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646 Influence of Tool Profile on Mechanical Properties of Friction Stir Welded Aluminium Alloy 5083

Authors: A. Chandrashekar, H. N. Reddappa, B. S. Ajaykumar

Abstract:

A Friction stir welding tool is a critical component to the success of the process. The tool typically consists of a rotating round shoulder and a threaded cylindrical pin that heats the work piece, mostly by friction, and moves the softened alloy around it to form the joint. In this research work, an attempt has been made to investigate the relationship between FSW variables mainly tool profile, rotating speed, welding speed and the mechanical properties (tensile strength, yield strength, percentage elongation, and micro hardness) of friction stir welded aluminum alloy 5083 joints. From the experimental details, it can be assessed that the joint produced by using Triflute profile tool has contribute superior mechanical and structural properties as compared to Tapered unthreaded & Threaded tool for 1000rpm.

Keywords: Friction stir welding, Tool profile, Rotating speed, Strength, Speed ratio.

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645 Neuro-Fuzzy Network Based On Extended Kalman Filtering for Financial Time Series

Authors: Chokri Slim

Abstract:

The neural network's performance can be measured by efficiency and accuracy. The major disadvantages of neural network approach are that the generalization capability of neural networks is often significantly low, and it may take a very long time to tune the weights in the net to generate an accurate model for a highly complex and nonlinear systems. This paper presents a novel Neuro-fuzzy architecture based on Extended Kalman filter. To test the performance and applicability of the proposed neuro-fuzzy model, simulation study of nonlinear complex dynamic system is carried out. The proposed method can be applied to an on-line incremental adaptive learning for the prediction of financial time series. A benchmark case studie is used to demonstrate that the proposed model is a superior neuro-fuzzy modeling technique.

Keywords: Neuro-fuzzy, Extended Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, financial time series.

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644 Preparation and Properties of Biopolymer from L-Lactide (LL) and ε-Caprolactone (CL)

Authors: A. Buasri, N. Chaiyut, K. Iamma, K. Kongcharoen, K. Cheunsakulpong

Abstract:

Biopolymers have gained much attention as ecofriendly alternatives to petrochemical-based plastics because they are biodegradable and can be produced from renewable feedstocks. One class of biopolyester with many potential environmentally friendly applications is polylactic acid (PLA) and polycaprolactone (PCL). The PLA/PCL biodegradable copolyesters were synthesized by bulk ring-opening copolymerization of successively added Llactide (LL) and ε-caprolactone (CL) in the presence of toluene, using 1-hexanol as initiator and stannous octoate (Sn(Oct)2) as catalyst. Reaction temperature, reaction time and amount of catalyst were evaluated to obtain optimum reaction conditions. The results showed that the %conversion increased with increases in reaction temperature and reaction time, but after a critical amount of catalyst was reached the %conversion decreased. The yield of PLA/PCL biopolymer achieved 98.02% at the reaction temperature 160 °C, amount of catalyst 0.3 mol% and reaction time of 48 h. In addition, the thermal properties of the product were determined by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA).

Keywords: Biopolymer, Polylactic Acid (PLA), Polycaprolactone (PCL), L-Lactide (LL), ε-Caprolactone (CL)

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643 An Efficient Technique for Extracting Fuzzy Rulesfrom Neural Networks

Authors: Besa Muslimi, Miriam A. M. Capretz, Jagath Samarabandu

Abstract:

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have the ability to model input-output relationships from processing raw data. This characteristic makes them invaluable in industry domains where such knowledge is scarce at best. In the recent decades, in order to overcome the black-box characteristic of ANNs, researchers have attempted to extract the knowledge embedded within ANNs in the form of rules that can be used in inference systems. This paper presents a new technique that is able to extract a small set of rules from a two-layer ANN. The extracted rules yield high classification accuracy when implemented within a fuzzy inference system. The technique targets industry domains that possess less complex problems for which no expert knowledge exists and for which a simpler solution is preferred to a complex one. The proposed technique is more efficient, simple, and applicable than most of the previously proposed techniques.

Keywords: fuzzy rule extraction, fuzzy systems, knowledgeacquisition, pattern recognition, artificial neural networks.

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