Search results for: Systems Analysis and Design

Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

This study empirically examines the long run equilibrium relationship between South Africa’s exports and imports using quarterly data from 1985 to 2012. The theoretical framework used for the study is based on Johansen’s Maximum Likelihood cointegration technique which tests for both the existence and number of cointegration vectors that exists. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant cointegrating relationship is found to exist between exports and imports. The study models this unique linear and lagged relationship using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings of the study confirm the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports.

Keywords: Cointegration lagged, linear, maximum likelihood, vector error correction model.

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Authors: Shiva Subhedar, Abhishek Jain, Shivin Mittal

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Icons are not merely decorative elements in enterprise applications but very often used because of their many advantages such as compactness, visual appeal, etc. Despite these potential advantages, icons often cause usability problems when they are designed without consideration for their many potential downsides. The aim of the current study was to examine the effect of articulatory distance – the distance between the physical appearance of an interface element and what it actually means. In other words, will the subject find the association of the function and its appearance on the interface natural or is the icon difficult for them to associate with its function. We have calculated response time and quality of identification by varying icon concreteness, the context of usage and subject experience in the enterprise context. The subjects were asked to associate icons (prepared for study purpose) with given function options in context and out of context mode. Response time and their selection were recorded for analysis.

Keywords: Icons, icon concreteness, icon recognition, HCI.

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Authors: Vesna Vulić

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Croatia has made large steps forward in the development of higher education over the past 10 years. Purposes and objectives of the tertiary education system are focused on the personal development of young people so that they obtain competences for employment on a flexible labour market. The most frequent tensions between the tertiary institutions and employers are complaints that the current tertiary education system still supplies students with an abundance of theoretical knowledge and not enough practical skills. Polytechnics and schools of professional higher education should deliver professional education and training that will satisfy the needs of their local communities. The 21^st century sets demand on undergraduates as well as their lecturers to strive for the highest standards. The skills students acquire during their studies should serve the needs of their future professional careers. In this context, teaching English for Specific Purposes (ESP) presents an enormous challenge for teachers. They have to cope with teaching the language in classes with a large number of students, limitations of time, inadequate equipment and teaching material; most frequently, this leads to focusing on specialist vocabulary neglecting the development of skills and competences required for future employment. Globalization has transformed the labour market and set new standards a perspective employee should meet. When knowledge of languages is considered, new generic skills and competences are required. Not only skillful written and oral communication is needed, but also information, media, and technology literacy, learning skills which include critical and creative thinking, collaborating and communicating, as well as social skills. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the needs of two groups of ESP first year Undergraduate Professional Administrative Study students taking ESP as a mandatory course: 47 first-year Undergraduate Professional Administrative Study students, 21 first-year employed part-time Undergraduate Professional Administrative Study students and 30 graduates with a degree in Undergraduate Professional Administrative Study with various amounts of work experience. The survey adopted a quantitative approach with the aim to determine the differences between the groups in their perception of the four language skills and different areas of law, as well as getting the insight into students' satisfaction with the current course and their motivation for studying ESP. Their perceptions will be compared to the results of the questionnaire conducted among sector professionals in order to examine how they perceive the same elements of the ESP course content and to what extent it fits into their working environment. The results of the survey indicated that there is a strong correlation between acquiring work experience and the level of importance given to particular areas of law studied in an ESP course which is in line with our initial hypothesis. In conclusion, the results of the survey should help lecturers in re-evaluating and updating their ESP course syllabi.

Keywords: English for Specific Purposes, ESP, language skills, motivation, needs analysis.

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Authors: Yalçın Ozdemir

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to examine to what extend classroom management efficacy, marital status, gender, and teaching experience predict burnout among primary school teachers. Participants of this study were 523 (345 female, 178 male) teachers who completed inventories. The results of multiple regression analysis indicated that three dimensions of teacher burnout (Emotional Exhaustion, Depersonalization, Personal Accomplishment) were affected differently from four predictor variables. Findings indicated that for the emotional exhaustion, classroom management efficacy, marital status and teaching experience; for depersonalization dimension, classroom management efficacy and marital status and finally for the personal accomplishment dimension, classroom management efficacy, gender, and teaching experience were significant predictors.

Keywords: Classroom management efficacy, teacher burnout.

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Authors: K. Hardy, A. Maurushat

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Policy makers are increasingly looking to make evidence-based decisions. Evidence-based decisions have historically used rigorous methodologies of empirical studies by research institutes, as well as less reliable immediate survey/polls often with limited sample sizes. As we move into the era of Big Data analytics, policy makers are looking to different methodologies to deliver reliable empirics in real-time. The question is not why did these people do this for the last 10 years, but why are these people doing this now, and if the this is undesirable, and how can we have an impact to promote change immediately. Big data analytics rely heavily on government data that has been released in to the public domain. The open data movement promises greater productivity and more efficient delivery of services; however, Australian government agencies remain reluctant to release their data to the general public. This paper considers the barriers to releasing government data as open data, and how these barriers might be overcome.

Keywords: Big data, open data, productivity, transparency.

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Authors: L. Sterken, S. Sebben, L. Löfdahl

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In this paper an alternative visualisation approach of the wake behind different vehicle body shapes with simplified and fully-detailed underbody has been proposed and analysed. This allows for a more clear distinction among the different wake regions. This visualisation is based on a transformation of the cartesian coordinates of a chosen wake plane to polar coordinates, using as filter velocities lower than the freestream. This transformation produces a polar wake plot that enables the division and quantification of the wake in a number of sections. In this paper, local drag has been used to visualise the drag contribution of the flow by the different sections. Visually, a balanced wake can be observed by the concentric behaviour of the polar plots. Alternatively, integration of the local drag of each degree section as a ratio of the total local drag yields a quantifiable approach of the wake uniformity, where different sections contribute equally to the local drag, with the exception of the wheels.

Keywords: Coordinate transformation, ground vehicle, local drag, wake.

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Authors: Chih-Cheng Chen, Meng-Lung Lin, Yung-Tan Lee, Tien-Tze Chen

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The rotation of starting pitchers is a strategic issue which has a significant impact on the performance of a professional team. Choosing an optimal starting pitcher from among many alternatives is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In this study, a model using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is proposed with which to arrange the starting pitcher rotation for teams of the Chinese Professional Baseball League. The AHP is used to analyze the structure of the starting pitcher selection problem and to determine the weights of the criteria, while the TOPSIS method is used to make the final ranking. An empirical analysis is conducted to illustrate the utilization of the model for the starting pitcher rotation problem. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

Keywords: AHP, TOPSIS, starting pitcher rotation, CPBL

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Authors: Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, Alberto De Marco

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The area of Project Risk Management (PRM) has been extensively researched, and the utilization of various tools and techniques for managing risk in several industries has been sufficiently reported. Formal and systematic PRM practices have been made available for the construction industry. Based on such body of knowledge, this paper tries to find out the global picture of PRM practices and approaches with the help of a survey to look into the usage of PRM techniques and diffusion of software tools, their level of maturity, and their usefulness in the construction sector. Results show that, despite existing techniques and tools, their usage is limited: software tools are used only by a minority of respondents and their cost is one of the largest hurdles in adoption. Finally, the paper provides some important guidelines for future research regarding quantitative risk analysis techniques and suggestions for PRM software tools development and improvement.

Keywords: Construction industry, Project risk management, Software tools, Survey study.

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Authors: Hanaa E.Sayed, Hossam A. Gabbar, Shigeji Miyazaki

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This paper presents Faults Forecasting System (FFS) that utilizes statistical forecasting techniques in analyzing process variables data in order to forecast faults occurrences. FFS is proposing new idea in detecting faults. Current techniques used in faults detection are based on analyzing the current status of the system variables in order to check if the current status is fault or not. FFS is using forecasting techniques to predict future timing for faults before it happens. Proposed model is applying subset modeling strategy and Bayesian approach in order to decrease dimensionality of the process variables and improve faults forecasting accuracy. A practical experiment, designed and implemented in Okayama University, Japan, is implemented, and the comparison shows that our proposed model is showing high forecasting accuracy and BEFORE-TIME.

Keywords: Bayesian Techniques, Faults Detection, Forecasting techniques, Multivariate Analysis.

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Authors: J. Winkler, S. Chovancová

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The article deals with the relation between rainfall in selected months and subsequent weed infestation of spring barley. The field experiment was performed at Mendel University agricultural enterprise in Žabčice, Czech Republic. Weed infestation was measured in spring barley vegetation in years 2004 to 2012. Barley was grown in three tillage variants: conventional tillage technology (CT), minimization tillage technology (MT), and no tillage (NT). Precipitation was recorded in one-day intervals. Monthly precipitation was calculated from the measured values in the months of October through to April. The technique of canonical correspondence analysis was applied for further statistical processing. 41 different species of weeds were found in the course of the 9-year monitoring period. The results clearly show that precipitation affects the incidence of most weed species in the selected months, but acts differently in the monitored variants of tillage technologies.

Keywords: Weeds, precipitation, tillage, weed infestation forecast.

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Authors: Revathi Venkataraman, M. Pushpalatha, T. Rama Rao

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The lack of any centralized infrastructure in mobile ad hoc networks (MANET) is one of the greatest security concerns in the deployment of wireless networks. Thus communication in MANET functions properly only if the participating nodes cooperate in routing without any malicious intention. However, some of the nodes may be malicious in their behavior, by indulging in flooding attacks on their neighbors. Some others may act malicious by launching active security attacks like denial of service. This paper addresses few related works done on trust evaluation and establishment in ad hoc networks. Related works on flooding attack prevention are reviewed. A new trust approach based on the extent of friendship between the nodes is proposed which makes the nodes to co-operate and prevent flooding attacks in an ad hoc environment. The performance of the trust algorithm is tested in an ad hoc network implementing the Ad hoc On-demand Distance Vector (AODV) protocol.

Keywords: AODV, Flooding, MANETs, trust estimation

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Authors: Muhammad Amjad Sohail, Rizwan Ullah

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This research paper presents the CFD analysis of oscillating airfoil during pitch cycle. Unsteady subsonic flow is simulated for pitching airfoil at Mach number 0.283 and Reynolds number 3.45 millions. Turbulent effects are also considered for this study by using K-ω SST turbulent model. Two-dimensional unsteady compressible Navier-Stokes code including two-equation turbulence model and PISO pressure velocity coupling is used. Pressure based implicit solver with first order implicit unsteady formulation is used. The simulated pitch cycle results are compared with the available experimental data. The results have a good agreement with the experimental data. Aerodynamic characteristics during pitch cycles have been studied and validated.

Keywords: Angle of attack, Centre of pressure, subsonic flow, pitching moment coefficient, turbulence mode

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Authors: Mona Masood, Zakiah Zain

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This study was conducted in Malaysia to discover how meaning and appreciation were construed among 35 Form Five students. Panofsky-s theory was employed to discover the levels of reasoning among students when various types of posters were displayed. The independent variables used were posters that carried explicit and implicit meanings; the moderating variable was students- visual literacy levels while the dependent variable was the implicit interpretation level. One-way ANOVA was applied for the data analysis. The data showed that before students were exposed to Panofsky-s theory, there were differences in thinking between boys, who did not think abstractly or implicit in comparison to girls. The study showed that students- visual literacy in posters depended on the use of visual texts and illustration. This paper discuss further on posters with text only have a tendency to be too abstract as opposed to posters with visuals plus text.

Keywords: explicit visual, implicit visual, visual interpretation, visual literacy

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Authors: Amol Lanke, Hadi Hoseinie, Behzad Ghodrati

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OEE has been used in many industries as measure of performance. However due to limitations of original OEE, it has been modified by various researchers. OEE for mining application is special version of classic equation, carries these limitation over. In this paper it has been aimed to modify the OEE for mining application by introducing the weights to the elements of it and termed as Mine Production index (MPi). As a special application of new index MPishovel has been developed by authors. This can be used for evaluating the shovel effectiveness. Based on analysis, utilization followed by performance and availability were ranked in this order. To check the applicability of this index, a case study was done on four electrical and one hydraulic shovel in a Swedish mine. The results shows that MPishovel can evaluate production effectiveness of shovels and can determine effectiveness values in optimistic view compared to OEE. MPi with calculation not only give the effectiveness but also can predict which elements should be focused for improving the productivity.

Keywords: Mining, Overall equipment efficiency (OEE), Mine Production index, Shovels.

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Authors: Halle Bakhteeyar, Azadeh Maroufmashat, Abbas Maleki, Sourena Sattari Khavas

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In this paper, five options of Iran’s gas flare recovery have been compared via MCDM method. For developing the model, the weighing factor of each indicator an AHP method is used via the Expert-choice software. Several cases were considered in this analysis. They are defined where the priorities were defined always keeping one criterion in first position, while the priorities of the other criteria were defined by ordinal information defining the mutual relations of the criteria and the respective indicators. The results, show that amongst these cases, priority is obtained for CHP usage where availability indicator is highly weighted while the pipeline usage is obtained where environmental indicator highly weighted and the injection priority is obtained where economic indicator is highly weighted and also when the weighing factor of all the criteria are the same the Injection priority is obtained.

Keywords: Flare, Gas, Iran.

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Authors: Zhiqing Zhang, Xiangong Zhou, Zihan Zhou

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Ground fissures can be seen in some cities all over the world. As a special urban geological disaster, ground fissures in Xi'an have caused great harm to infrastructure. Chang'an Road Interchange in Xi'an City is a bridge across ground fissures. The damage to Chang'an Road interchange is the most serious and typical. To study the influence of ground fissures on the bridge, we established a bridge monitoring system. The main monitoring items include elevation monitoring, structural displacement monitoring, etc. The monitoring results show that the typical failure is mainly reflected in the bridge deck damage caused by horizontal tension and vertical dislocation. For the construction of urban interchange spanning ground fissures, the interchange should be divided reasonably, a simple support structure with less restriction should be adopted, and the monitoring of supports should be strengthened to prevent the occurrence of beam falling.

Keywords: Bridge monitoring, ground fissures, typical disease, structural displacement.

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Authors: Shah Ahsanuzzaman Md. Tariq, Fabrizio Granelli

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IEEE 802.11e is the enhanced version of the IEEE 802.11 MAC dedicated to provide Quality of Service of wireless network. It supports QoS by the service differentiation and prioritization mechanism. Data traffic receives different priority based on QoS requirements. Fundamentally, applications are divided into four Access Categories (AC). Each AC has its own buffer queue and behaves as an independent backoff entity. Every frame with a specific priority of data traffic is assigned to one of these access categories. IEEE 802.11e EDCA (Enhanced Distributed Channel Access) is designed to enhance the IEEE 802.11 DCF (Distributed Coordination Function) mechanisms by providing a distributed access method that can support service differentiation among different classes of traffic. Performance of IEEE 802.11e MAC layer with different ACs is evaluated to understand the actual benefits deriving from the MAC enhancements.

Keywords: 802.11e, fairness, enhanced distributed channelaccess, access categories, quality of Service.

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Authors: Andres Gonzalez, Adam Boies, Jacob Swanson, David Kittelson

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The concern of the indoor air quality (IAQ) has been increasing due to its risk to human health. The smoking, sweeping, and stove and stovetop use are the activities that have a major contribution to the indoor air pollution. Outdoor air pollution also affects IAQ. The most important factors over IAQ from cooking activities are the materials, fuels, foods, and ventilation. The low-cost, mobile air quality monitoring (LCMAQM) sensors, is reachable technology to assess the IAQ. This is because of the lower cost of LCMAQM compared to conventional instruments. The IAQ was assessed, using LCMAQM, during cooking activities in a University of Minnesota graduate-housing evaluating different ventilation systems. The gases measured are carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO₂). The particles measured are particle matter (PM) _2.5 micrometer (µm) and lung deposited surface area (LDSA). The measurements are being conducted during April 2019 in Como Student Community Cooperative (CSCC) that is a graduate housing at the University of Minnesota. The measurements are conducted using an electric stove for cooking. The amount and type of food and oil using for cooking are the same for each measurement. There are six measurements: two experiments measure air quality without any ventilation, two using an extractor as mechanical ventilation, and two using the extractor and windows open as mechanical and natural ventilation. 3The results of experiments show that natural ventilation is most efficient system to control particles and CO₂. The natural ventilation reduces the concentration in 79% for LDSA and 55% for PM_2.5, compared to the no ventilation. In the same way, CO₂ reduces its concentration in 35%. A well-mixed vessel model was implemented to assess particle the formation and decay rates. Removal rates by the extractor were significantly higher for LDSA, which is dominated by smaller particles, than for PM_2.5, but in both cases much lower compared to the natural ventilation. There was significant day to day variation in particle concentrations under nominally identical conditions. This may be related to the fat content of the food. Further research is needed to assess the impact of the fat in food on particle generations.

Keywords: Cooking, indoor air quality, low-cost sensor, ventilation.

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Authors: Michal Lysek, Mike Danilovic, Jasmine Lihua Liu

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HMS Industrial Networks AB has been recognized as one of the most innovative companies in the industrial communication industry worldwide. The creation of their Anybus innovation during the 1990s contributed considerably to the company’s success. From inception, HMS’ employees were innovating for the purpose of creating new business (the creation phase). After the Anybus innovation, they began the process of internationalization (the commercialization phase), which in turn led them to concentrate on cost reduction, product quality, delivery precision, operational efficiency, and increasing growth (the growth phase). As a result of this transformation, performing new radical innovations have become more complicated. The purpose of our research was to explore the dynamics of innovation at HMS from the aspect of key actors, activities, and events, over the three phases, in order to understand what led to the creation of their Anybus innovation, and why it has become increasingly challenging for HMS to create new radical innovations for the future. Our research methodology was based on a longitudinal, retrospective study from the inception of HMS in 1988 to 2014, a single case study inspired by the grounded theory approach. We conducted 47 interviews and collected 1 024 historical documents for our research. Our analysis has revealed that HMS’ success in creating the Anybus, and developing a successful business around the innovation, was based on three main capabilities – cultivating customer relations on different managerial and organizational levels, inspiring business relations, and balancing complementary human assets for the purpose of business creation. The success of HMS has turned the management’s attention away from past activities of key actors, of their behavior, and how they influenced and stimulated the creation of radical innovations. Nowadays, they are rhetorically focusing on creativity and innovation. All the while, their real actions put emphasis on growth, cost reduction, product quality, delivery precision, operational efficiency, and moneymaking. In the process of becoming an international company, HMS gradually refocused. In so doing they became profitable and successful, but they also forgot what made them innovative in the first place. Fortunately, HMS’ management has come to realize that this is the case and they are now in search of recapturing innovation once again. Our analysis indicates that HMS’ management is facing several barriers to innovation related path dependency and other lock-in phenomena. HMS’ management has been captured, trapped in their mindset and actions, by the success of the past. But now their future has to be secured, and they have come to realize that moneymaking is not everything. In recent years, HMS’ management have begun to search for innovation once more, in order to recapture their past capabilities for creating radical innovations. In order to unlock their managerial perceptions of customer needs and their counter-innovation driven activities and events, to utilize the full potential of their employees and capture the innovation opportunity for the future.

Keywords: Barriers to innovation, dynamics of innovation, in search of excellence and innovation, radical innovation.

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Authors: Z. Y. Jiang, H. B. Tibar, A. Aljabri

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Optimisation of the physical and mechanical properties of cold rolled thin strips is achieved by controlling the rolling parameters. In this paper, the factors affecting the asymmetrical cold rolling of thin low carbon steel strip have been studied at a speed ratio of 1.1 without lubricant applied. The effect of rolling parameters on the resulting microstructure was also investigated. It was found that under dry condition, work roll shifting and work roll cross angle can improve the strip profile, and the result is more significant with an increase of work roll cross angle rather than that of work roll shifting. However, there was no obvious change in microstructure. In addition, effects of rolling parameters on strip profile and microstructure have also been discussed.

Keywords: Reduction ratio, rolling speed ratio, strip shape, work rolls cross angle, work roll shifting.

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Authors: Ayse Gecer, Nihal Erginel

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Quality control is the crucial step for ISO 9001 Quality System Management Standard for companies. While measuring the quality level of both raw material and semi product/product, the calibration of the measuring device is an essential requirement. Calibration suppliers are in the service sector and therefore the calibration supplier selection is becoming a worthy topic for improving service quality. This study presents the results of a questionnaire about the selection criteria of a calibration supplier. The questionnaire was applied to 103 companies and the results are discussed in this paper. The analysis was made with MINITAB 14.0 statistical programs. “Competence of documentations" and “technical capability" are defined as the prerequisites because of the ISO/IEC17025:2005 standard. Also “warranties and complaint policy", “communication", “service features", “quality" and “performance history" are defined as very important criteria for calibration supplier selection.

Keywords: Calibration, criteria of calibration supplier selection, calibration supplier selection, questionnaire

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Authors: M. N. Norshita, B. Z. Halimah, T. S. Tengku Mohammad

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The implementation of electronic government started since the initiation of Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) by the Malaysia government. The introduction of ICT in the public sector especially e-Government initiatives opens up a new book in the government administration throughout the world. The aim or this paper is to discuss the implementation of e-government in Malaysia, covering the result of public user self assessment on Malaysia's electronic government applications. E-services, e-procurement, Generic Office Environment (GOE), Human Resources Management Information System (HRMIS), Project Monitoring System (PMS), Electronic Labor Exchange (ELX) and e-syariah(religion) were the seven flagship application assessed. The study adopted a crosssectional survey research approach and information system literature were used. The analysis was done for 35 responden in pilot test and there was evidence from public user's perspective to suggest that the e-government applications were generally successful.

Keywords: Electronic government, flagship, multimedia super corridor, public user.

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Authors: Amr A. El Hanafy, Yasir Anwar, Saleh A. Mohamed, Saleh Mohamed Saleh Al-Garni, Jamal S. M. Sabir, Osama A. H. Abu Zinadah, Mohamed Morsi Ahmed

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In the vicinity of red sea about 15 fungi species were isolated from oil contaminated sites. On the basis of aptitude to degrade the crude oil and DCPIP assay, two fungal isolates were selected amongst 15 oil degrading strains. Analysis of ITS-1, ITS-2 and amplicon pyrosequencing studies of fungal diversity revealed that these strains belong to Penicillium and Aspergillus species. Two strains that proved to be the most efficient in degrading crude oil was Aspergillus niger (54%) and Penicillium commune (48%) Subsequent to two weeks of cultivation in BHS medium the degradation rate were recorded by using spectrophotometer and GC-MS. Hence, it is cleared that these fungal strains has capability of degradation and can be utilize for cleaning the Saudi Arabian environment.

Keywords: Fungal strains, hydrocarbon contaminants, molecular identification, biodegradation, GC-MS.

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Authors: Helena Kovačič, Andrej Rus

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The authors of this paper compared ratings for leadership competences of managers in the healthcare sector and professional managers in Slovenia. Managers’ competence scores were analyzed for Slovenia and compared with some other EU countries. Comparisons of correlations yielded significant differences in leader/non-leader healthcare professionals in their relational competences. Cross-cultural comparisons also point to these differences in many countries included in the survey. Comparing these managers with the professional managers, one of the relational competences significantly distinguishes the two groups, namely the competence of taking initiative in establishing contacts with experts outside the organization. What is surprising from our analysis is the high number of competences that significantly differentiate leaders in healthcare from professional managers. Empirically based assessment provided a robust method for assessing and comparing leadership competences and point out significant results for leadership development.

Keywords: Leadership, competences, healthcare.

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Authors: Hazleen Anuar, Nur Aimi Mohd Nasir, Yousuf El-Shekeil

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Durian skin is a newly explores natural fibre potentially reinforced polyolefin for diverse applications. In this work, investigation on the effect of coupling agent, maleic anhydride polypropylene (MAPP) on the mechanical, morphological, and thermal properties of polypropylene (PP) reinforced with durian skin fibre (DSF) was conducted. The presence of 30 wt% DSF significantly reduced the tensile strength of PP-DSF composite. Interestingly, even though the same trend goes to PP-DSF with the presence of MAPP, the reduction is only about 4% relative to unreinforced PP and 18% higher than PP-DSF without MAPP (untreated composite or UTC). The used of MAPP in treated composite (TC) also increased the tensile modulus, flexural properties and degradation temperature. The enhanced mechanical properties are consistent with good interfacial interaction as evidenced under scanning electron microscopy.

Keywords: Durian skin fiber, coupling agent, mechanical properties, thermogravimetry analysis.

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Authors: Reinhard Neck, Guido Schäfer

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In this paper, we explore the macroeconomic effects of the European Single Market on Austria by simulating the McKibbin-Sachs Global Model. Global interdependences and the impact of long-run effects on short-run adjustments are taken into account. We study the sensitivity of the results with respect to different assumptions concerning monetary and fiscal policies for the countries and regions of the world economy. The consequences of different assumptions about budgetary policies in Austria are also investigated. The simulation results are contrasted with ex-post evaluations of the actual impact of Austria’s membership in the Single Market. As a result, it can be concluded that the Austrian participation in the European Single Market entails considerable long-run gains for the Austrian economy with nearly no adverse sideeffects on any macroeconomic target variable.

Keywords: Macroeconomics, European Union, simulation, sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

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The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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Authors: C. Y. Chen

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As the global climate changes, the threat from landslides and debris flows increases. Learning how a watershed initiates landslides under abnormal rainfall conditions and predicting landslide magnitude and frequency distribution is thus important. Landslides show a power-law distribution in the frequency-area distribution. The distribution curve shows an exponent gradient 1.0 in the Sandpile model test. Will the landslide frequency-area statistics show a distribution similar to the Sandpile model under extreme rainfall conditions? The purpose of the study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan. Results of the analysis show that a lower gradient of landslide frequency-area distribution could be attributed to the transportation and deposition of debris flow areas that are included in the landslide area.

Keywords: Landslide, power-law distribution, GIS.

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Authors: Prateek Kishore, T. M. Muruganandam

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Supersonic wind tunnel nozzles are generally capable of producing a constant Mach number flow in the test section of the wind tunnel. As a result, most of the supersonic vehicles are widely designed using steady state flow characteristics which may have errors while facing unsteady situations. This study aims to explore the possibility of varying the Mach number of the flow during wind tunnel operation. The nozzle walls are restricted to be inflexible for cooling near the throat due to high stagnation temperature requirement of the flow to simulate the conditions as experienced by the vehicle. Two simple independent mechanisms, rotation and translation of nozzle walls have been analyzed and the nozzle ranges have been optimized to vary the Mach number from Mach 2 to Mach 5 using minimum number of nozzles in the wind tunnel.

Keywords: Method of characteristics, Nozzle, supersonic wind tunnel, variable Mach number.

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Authors: F. Saptouw

Abstract:

This paper briefly reviews the range of curatorial interventions made to preserve and display the Timbuktu Manuscripts. The government of South Africa and Mali collaborated to preserve the manuscripts, and brief notes will be presented about the value of archives in those specific spaces. The research initiatives of the Tombouctou Manuscripts Project, based at the University of Cape Town, feature prominently in the text. A brief overview of the history of the archive will be presented and its preservation as a key turning point in curating the intellectual history of the continent. ­­­The strategies of preservation, curation, publication and digitization are presented as complimentary interventions. Each materialization of the manuscripts contributes something significant; the complexity of the contribution is dependent primarily on the format of presentation. This integrated reading of the manuscripts is presented as a means to gain a more nuanced understanding of the past, which greatly surpasses how much information would be gleaned from relying on a single media format.

Keywords: Archive, curatorship, cultural heritage, museum practice, Timbuktu manuscripts.

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