Search results for: beta binomial posterior predictive distribution
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2369

Search results for: beta binomial posterior predictive distribution

1199 Stochastic Comparisons of Heterogeneous Samples with Homogeneous Exponential Samples

Authors: Nitin Gupta, Rakesh Kumar Bajaj

Abstract:

In the present communication, stochastic comparison of a series (parallel) system having heterogeneous components with random lifetimes and series (parallel) system having homogeneous exponential components with random lifetimes has been studied. Further, conditions under which such a comparison is possible has been established.

Keywords: Exponential distribution, Order statistics, Star ordering, Stochastic ordering.

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1198 Fuzzy Estimation of Parameters in Statistical Models

Authors: A. Falsafain, S. M. Taheri, M. Mashinchi

Abstract:

Using a set of confidence intervals, we develop a common approach, to construct a fuzzy set as an estimator for unknown parameters in statistical models. We investigate a method to derive the explicit and unique membership function of such fuzzy estimators. The proposed method has been used to derive the fuzzy estimators of the parameters of a Normal distribution and some functions of parameters of two Normal distributions, as well as the parameters of the Exponential and Poisson distributions.

Keywords: Confidence interval. Fuzzy number. Fuzzy estimation.

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1197 Research and Development of Net-Centric Information Sharing Platform

Authors: Xiaoqing Wang, Fang Youyuan, Zheng Yanxing, Gu Tianyang, Zong Jianjian, Tong Jinrong

Abstract:

Compared with traditional distributed environment, the net-centric environment brings on more demanding challenges for information sharing with the characteristics of ultra-large scale and strong distribution, dynamic, autonomy, heterogeneity, redundancy. This paper realizes an information sharing model and a series of core services, through which provides an open, flexible and scalable information sharing platform.

Keywords: Net-centric environment, Information sharing, Metadata registry and catalog, Cross-domain data access control.

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1196 Influence of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Desertification

Authors: Kukuri Tavartkiladze, Nana Bolashvili

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper was separation and study of the part of structure regime, which directly affects the process of desertification. A simple scheme was prepared for the assessment of desertification process; surface air temperature and precipitation for the years of 1936-2009 were analyzed.  The map of distribution of the Desertification Contributing Coefficient in the territory of Georgia was compiled. The simple scheme for identification of the intensity of the desertification contributing process has been developed and the illustrative example of its practical application for the territory of Georgia has been conducted.

Keywords: Climate change, aridity, desertification, precipitation.

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1195 A Comparative Study on Different Approaches to Evaluate Ship Equilibrium Point

Authors: Alessandro A. Zizzari, Francesca Calabrese, Giovanni Indiveri, Andrea Coraddu, Diego Villa

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a comparative study on two different methods for the evaluation of the equilibrium point of a ship, core issue for designing an On Board Stability System (OBSS) module that, starting from geometry information of a ship hull, described by a discrete model in a standard format, and the distribution of all weights onboard calculates the ship floating conditions (in draught, heel and trim).

Keywords: Algorithms, Computer applications, Equilibrium, Marine applications, Stability System.

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1194 Analysis of Plasmids and Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphisms of Acinetobacter baumannii Isolated from Hospitals- AL Jouf Region- KSA

Authors: Samy A. Selim, Nashwa I. Hagag

Abstract:

Abstract–The objectives of the current study are to determine the prevalence, etiological agents, drug susceptibility pattern and plasmid profile of Acinetobacter baumannii isolates from Hospital-Acquired Infections (HAI) at Community Hospital, Al Jouf Province, Saudi Arabia. A total of 1890 patients had developed infection during hospital admission and were included in the study. Among those who developed nosocomial infections, 15(9.4), 10(2.7) and 118 (12.7) had respiratory tract infection (RTI), blood stream infections (BSI) and urinary tract (UTI) respectively. A total of 268 bacterial isolates were isolated from nosocomial infection. S. aureus was reported in 23.5% for of the total isolates followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (17.5%), E. coli (17.2%), P. aeruginosa (11.9%), coagulase negative staphylococcus (9%), A. baumannii (7.1%), Enterobacter spp. (3.4%), Citrobacter freundii (3%), Proteus mirabilis (2.6%), and Proteus vulgaris and Enterococcous faecalis (0.7%). Isolated organisms are multi-drug resistant, predominantly Gram-positive pathogens with a high incidence of methicillin-resistant S. aureus, extended spectrum beta lactamase and vancomycin resistant enterococci organisms. The RFLP (Fragment Length Polymorphisms) patterns of plasmid preparations from isolated A. baumannii isolates had altered RFLP patterns, possibly due to the presence of plasmid(s). Five A. baumannii isolates harbored plasmids all of which were not less than 2.71kbp in molecular weight. Hence, it showed that the gene coding for the isolates were located on the plasmid DNA while the remaining isolates which have no plasmid might showed gene coding for antibiotic resistance being located on chromosomal DNA. Nosocomial infections represent a current problem in Community Hospital, Al Jouf Province, Saudi Arabia. Problems associated with SSI include infection with multidrug resistant pathogens which are difficult to treat and are associated with increased mortality.

Keywords: Hospital-Acquired Infections, Acinetobacter baumannii, antibiotic resistance, plasmid profile, RFLP patterns, Al Jouf Province, Saudi Arabia

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1193 The Design of a Vehicle Traffic Flow Prediction Model for a Gauteng Freeway Based on an Ensemble of Multi-Layer Perceptron

Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

Abstract:

The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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1192 Applying Case-Based Reasoning in Supporting Strategy Decisions

Authors: S. M. Seyedhosseini, A. Makui, M. Ghadami

Abstract:

Globalization and therefore increasing tight competition among companies, have resulted to increase the importance of making well-timed decision. Devising and employing effective strategies, that are flexible and adaptive to changing market, stand a greater chance of being effective in the long-term. In other side, a clear focus on managing the entire product lifecycle has emerged as critical areas for investment. Therefore, applying wellorganized tools to employ past experience in new case, helps to make proper and managerial decisions. Case based reasoning (CBR) is based on a means of solving a new problem by using or adapting solutions to old problems. In this paper, an adapted CBR model with k-nearest neighbor (K-NN) is employed to provide suggestions for better decision making which are adopted for a given product in the middle of life phase. The set of solutions are weighted by CBR in the principle of group decision making. Wrapper approach of genetic algorithm is employed to generate optimal feature subsets. The dataset of the department store, including various products which are collected among two years, have been used. K-fold approach is used to evaluate the classification accuracy rate. Empirical results are compared with classical case based reasoning algorithm which has no special process for feature selection, CBR-PCA algorithm based on filter approach feature selection, and Artificial Neural Network. The results indicate that the predictive performance of the model, compare with two CBR algorithms, in specific case is more effective.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, Genetic algorithm, Groupdecision making, Product management.

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1191 Fatigue Properties and Strength Degradation of Carbon Fibber Reinforced Composites

Authors: Pasquale Verde, Giuseppe Lamanna

Abstract:

A two-parameter fatigue model explicitly accounting for the cyclic as well as the mean stress was used to fit static and fatigue data available in literature concerning carbon fiber reinforced composite laminates subjected tension-tension fatigue. The model confirms the strength–life equal rank assumption and predicts reasonably the probability of failure under cyclic loading. The model parameters were found by best fitting procedures and required a minimum of experimental tests.

Keywords: Fatigue life, strength, composites, Weibull distribution.

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1190 Effect of Plunging Oscillation on an Offshore Wind Turbine Blade Section

Authors: F. Rasi Marzabadi

Abstract:

A series of experiments were carried out to study unsteady behavior of the flow field as well as the boundary layer of an airfoil oscillating in plunging motion in a subsonic wind tunnel. The measurements involved surface pressure distribution complimented with surface-mounted hot-films. The effect of leadingedge roughness that simulates surface irregularities on the wind turbine blades was also studied on variations of aerodynamic loads and boundary layer behavior.

Keywords: Boundary layer transition, plunging, reduced frequency, wind turbine.

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1189 Analysis of Metallothionein Gene MT1A (rs11076161) and MT2A (rs10636) Polymorphisms as a Molecular Marker in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus among Malay Population

Authors: Norsakinah Mohammad Osman, Ali Etemad, Patimah Ismail

Abstract:

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a complex metabolic disorder that characterized by the presence of high glucose in blood that cause from insulin resistance and insufficiency due to deterioration β-cell Langerhans functions. T2DM is commonly caused by the combination of inherited genetic variations as well as our own lifestyle. Metallothionein (MT) is a known cysteine-rich protein responsible in helping zinc homeostasis which is important in insulin signaling and secretion as well as protection our body from reactive oxygen species (ROS). MT scavenged ROS and free radicals in our body happen to be one of the reasons of T2DM and its complications. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of MT1A and MT2A polymorphisms between T2DM and control subjects among Malay populations. This study involved 150 T2DM and 120 Healthy individuals of Malay ethnic with mixed genders. The genomic DNA was extracted from buccal cells and amplified for MT1A and MT2A loci; the 347bp and 238bp banding patterns were respectively produced by mean of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). The PCR products were digested with Mlucl and Tsp451 restriction enzymes respectively and producing fragments lengths of (158/189/347bp) and (103/135/238bp) respectively. The ANOVA test was conducted and it shown that there was a significant difference between diabetic and control subjects for age, BMI, WHR, SBP, FPG, HBA1C, LDL, TG, TC and family history with (P<0.05). While the HDL, CVD risk ratio and DBP does not show any significant difference with (P>0.05). The genotype frequency for AA, AG and GG of MT1A polymorphisms was 72.7%, 22.7% and 4.7% in cases and 15%, 55% and 30% in control respectively. As for MT2A, genotype frequency of GG, GC and CC was 42.7%, 27.3% and 30% in case and 5%, 40% and 55% for control respectively. Both polymorphisms show significant difference between two investigated groups with (P=0.000). The Post hoc test was conducted and shows a significant difference between the genotypes within each polymorphism (P=0. 000). The MT1A and MT2A polymorphisms were believed to be the reliable molecular markers to distinguish the T2DM subjects from healthy individuals in Malay populations.

Keywords: Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM), Metallothionein (MT), MT1A (rs11076161), MT2A (rs10636), Malay, Genetic Polymorphism.

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1188 Oil Refineries Emissions: Source and Impact: A Study using AERMOD

Authors: Amir. AL-Haddad, Hisham. Ettouney, Samiya. Saqer

Abstract:

The main objectives of this paper are to measure pollutants concentrations in the oil refinery area in Kuwait over three periods during one year, obtain recent emission inventory for the three refineries of Kuwait, use AERMOD and the emission inventory to predict pollutants concentrations and distribution, compare model predictions against measured data, and perform numerical experiments to determine conditions at which emission rates and the resulting pollutant dispersion is below maximum allowable limits.

Keywords: Emissions, ISCST3 model, Modeling, Pollutants, Refinery

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1187 Self-Care Behavior and Performance Level Associated with Algerian Chronically Ill Patients

Authors: S. Aberkane, N. Djabali, S. Fafi, A. Baghezza

Abstract:

Chronic illnesses affect many Algerians. It is possible to investigate the impact of illness representations and coping on quality of life and whether illness representations are indirectly associated with quality of life through their influence on coping. This study aims at investigating the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies and quality of life with chronic illness. Illness perceptions are indirectly associated with the quality of life through their influence on coping mediation. A sample of 316 participants with chronic illness living in the region of Batna, Algeria, has been adopted in this study. A correlation statistical analysis is used to determine the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies, and quality of life. Multiple regression analysis was employed to highlight the predictive ability of the dimensions of illness perception and coping strategies on the dependent variables of quality of life, where mediation analysis is considered in the exploration of the indirect effect significance of the mediator. This study provides insights about the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies and quality of life in the considered sample (r = 0.39, p < 0.01). Therefore, it proves that there is an effect of illness identity perception, external and medical attributions related to emotional role, physical functioning, and mental health perceived, and these were fully mediated by the asking for assistance (c’= 0.04, p < 0.05), the guarding (c’= 0.00, p < 0.05), and the task persistence strategy (c’= 0.05, p < 0.05). The findings imply partial support for the common-sense model of illness representations in a chronic illness population. Directions for future research are highlighted, as well as implications for psychotherapeutic interventions which target unhelpful beliefs and maladaptive coping strategies (e.g., cognitive behavioral therapy).

Keywords: Chronic illness, coping, illness perception, quality of life, self-regulation model.

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1186 In-Situ EBSD Observations of Bending for Single-Crystalline Pure Copper

Authors: Takashi Sakai, Saori Yoshikawa, Hideo Morimoto

Abstract:

To understand the material characteristics of singleand poly-crystals of pure copper, the respective relationships between crystallographic orientations and microstructures, and the bending and mechanical properties were examined. And texture distribution is also analyzed. A bending test is performed in a SEM apparatus and while its behaviors are observed in situ. Furthermore, some analytical results related to crystal direction maps, inverse pole figures, and textures were obtained from EBSD analyses.

Keywords: Pure Copper, Bending, Single Crystal, SEM-EBSD Analysis, Texture, Microstructure

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1185 Analysis of the Effect of HV Transmission Lines on the Control Room and its Proposed Shielding

Authors: Diako Azizi, Hosein Heydari, Ahmad Gholami

Abstract:

Today with the rapid growth of telecommunications equipment, electronic and developing more and more networks of power, influence of electromagnetic waves on one another has become hot topic discussions. So in this article, this issue and appropriate mechanisms for EMC operations have been presented. First, impact of high voltage lines on the surrounding environment especially on the control room has been investigated, then to reduce electromagnetic radiation, various methods of shielding are provided and shielding effectiveness of them has been compared. It should be expressed that simulations have been done by the finite element method (FEM).

Keywords: Electrical field, EMC, field distribution, finite element method

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1184 Approximate Range-Sum Queries over Data Cubes Using Cosine Transform

Authors: Wen-Chi Hou, Cheng Luo, Zhewei Jiang, Feng Yan

Abstract:

In this research, we propose to use the discrete cosine transform to approximate the cumulative distributions of data cube cells- values. The cosine transform is known to have a good energy compaction property and thus can approximate data distribution functions easily with small number of coefficients. The derived estimator is accurate and easy to update. We perform experiments to compare its performance with a well-known technique - the (Haar) wavelet. The experimental results show that the cosine transform performs much better than the wavelet in estimation accuracy, speed, space efficiency, and update easiness.

Keywords: DCT, Data Cube

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1183 Time Series Forecasting Using Various Deep Learning Models

Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

Abstract:

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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1182 Analysis of the Black Sea Gas Hydrates

Authors: Sukru Merey, Caglar Sinayuc

Abstract:

Gas hydrate deposits which are found in deep ocean sediments and in permafrost regions are supposed to be a fossil fuel reserve for the future. The Black Sea is also considered rich in terms of gas hydrates. It abundantly contains gas hydrates as methane (CH4~80 to 99.9%) source. In this study, by using the literature, seismic and other data of the Black Sea such as salinity, porosity of the sediments, common gas type, temperature distribution and pressure gradient, the optimum gas production method for the Black Sea gas hydrates was selected as mainly depressurization method. Numerical simulations were run to analyze gas production from gas hydrate deposited in turbidites in the Black Sea by depressurization.

Keywords: Black Sea hydrates, depressurization, turbidites, HydrateResSim.

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1181 Some Studies on Temperature Distribution Modeling of Laser Butt Welding of AISI 304 Stainless Steel Sheets

Authors: N. Siva Shanmugam, G. Buvanashekaran, K. Sankaranarayanasamy

Abstract:

In this research work, investigations are carried out on Continuous Wave (CW) Nd:YAG laser welding system after preliminary experimentation to understand the influencing parameters associated with laser welding of AISI 304. The experimental procedure involves a series of laser welding trials on AISI 304 stainless steel sheets with various combinations of process parameters like beam power, beam incident angle and beam incident angle. An industrial 2 kW CW Nd:YAG laser system, available at Welding Research Institute (WRI), BHEL Tiruchirappalli, is used for conducting the welding trials for this research. After proper tuning of laser beam, laser welding experiments are conducted on AISI 304 grade sheets to evaluate the influence of various input parameters on weld bead geometry i.e. bead width (BW) and depth of penetration (DOP). From the laser welding results, it is noticed that the beam power and welding speed are the two influencing parameters on depth and width of the bead. Three dimensional finite element simulation of high density heat source have been performed for laser welding technique using finite element code ANSYS for predicting the temperature profile of laser beam heat source on AISI 304 stainless steel sheets. The temperature dependent material properties for AISI 304 stainless steel are taken into account in the simulation, which has a great influence in computing the temperature profiles. The latent heat of fusion is considered by the thermal enthalpy of material for calculation of phase transition problem. A Gaussian distribution of heat flux using a moving heat source with a conical shape is used for analyzing the temperature profiles. Experimental and simulated values for weld bead profiles are analyzed for stainless steel material for different beam power, welding speed and beam incident angle. The results obtained from the simulation are compared with those from the experimental data and it is observed that the results of numerical analysis (FEM) are in good agreement with experimental results, with an overall percentage of error estimated to be within ±6%.

Keywords: Laser welding, Butt weld, 304 SS, FEM.

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1180 Information Overload, Information Literacy and Use of Technology by Students

Authors: Elena Krelja Kurelović, Jasminka Tomljanović, Vlatka Davidović

Abstract:

The development of web technologies and mobile devices makes creating, accessing, using and sharing information or communicating with each other simpler every day. However, while the amount of information constantly increasing it is becoming harder to effectively organize and find quality information despite the availability of web search engines, filtering and indexing tools. Although digital technologies have overall positive impact on students’ lives, frequent use of these technologies and digital media enriched with dynamic hypertext and hypermedia content, as well as multitasking, distractions caused by notifications, calls or messages; can decrease the attention span, make thinking, memorizing and learning more difficult, which can lead to stress and mental exhaustion. This is referred to as “information overload”, “information glut” or “information anxiety”. Objective of this study is to determine whether students show signs of information overload and to identify the possible predictors. Research was conducted using a questionnaire developed for the purpose of this study. The results show that students frequently use technology (computers, gadgets and digital media), while they show moderate level of information literacy. They have sometimes experienced symptoms of information overload. According to the statistical analysis, higher frequency of technology use and lower level of information literacy are correlated with larger information overload. The multiple regression analysis has confirmed that the combination of these two independent variables has statistically significant predictive capacity for information overload. Therefore, the information science teachers should pay attention to improving the level of students’ information literacy and educate them about the risks of excessive technology use.

Keywords: Information overload, technology use, digital media, information literacy, students.

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1179 Structural Funds of Polish Agriculture

Authors: Agata Niewiadomska, Adam Niewiadomski

Abstract:

The research objective of the project and article “The impact of Structural Funds on the growth of competitiveness of Polish agriculture" is to assess competitiveness of regions in Poland from the perspective of Polish agriculture by analysing the efficiency of the use of Structural Funds, the economic procedure of their distribution and the regulatory and organisational framework under the Rural Development Programme (RDP). It must be stressed that defining the scope of research in the above manner limits the analysis only to the part of Structural Funds directed to support Polish agriculture.

Keywords: Structural Funds, Polish agriculture, Rural Development Programme.

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1178 Characteristic Function in Estimation of Probability Distribution Moments

Authors: Vladimir S. Timofeev

Abstract:

In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.

Keywords: Characteristic function, distributional moments, robustness, outlier, statistical estimation problem, statistical simulation.

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1177 Development and Analysis of a Machine to Equally Apply Mineral Fertilizer to Soil on Slopes

Authors: Qurbanov Huseyn Nuraddin

Abstract:

Reliable food supply of the population of a country is one of the main directions of the state's economic policy. Grain growing, which is the basis of agriculture, is important in this area. In the cultivation of cereals on slopes, the application of equal amounts of mineral fertilizers to under the soil before sowing is a very important technological process. The low level of technical equipment in this area prevents producers from providing the country with the necessary quality cereals. Experience in the operation of modern technical means has shown that at present, there is a need to provide an equal amount of fertilizer to under the soil on slopes, fully meeting the agro-technical requirements. No fundamental changes have been made to the industrial machines that fertilize under the soil, and unequal application of fertilizers to under the soil on slopes has been applied. This technological process leads to the destruction of new seedlings and reduced productivity due to intolerance to frost during the winter for the plant planted in the fall. In special climatic conditions, there is an optimal fertilization rate for each agricultural product. The application of fertilizers to the soil is one of the conditions that increase their efficiency in the field. As can be seen, the development of a new technical proposal for fertilizing and plowing the slopes in equal amounts on the slopes, improving the technological and design parameters, taking into account the physical and mechanical properties of fertilizers, is very important. Taking into account the above-mentioned issues, a combined plough was developed in our laboratory. Combined plough carries out pre-sowing technological operation in the cultivation of cereals, providing a smooth equal amount of mineral fertilizers to under the soil on the slopes. Mathematical models of a smooth spreader that evenly distributes fertilizers in the field have been developed. Thus, diagrams and graphs obtained without distribution on the eight partitions of the smooth spreader are constructed under the inclined angles of the slopes. Percentage and productivity of equal distribution in the field were noted by practical and theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Combined plough, mineral fertilizer, equal sowing, fertilizer norm, grain-crops, sowing fertilizer.

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1176 Application of Transportation Models for Analysing Future Intercity and Intracity Travel Patterns in Kuwait

Authors: Srikanth Pandurangi, Basheer Mohammed, Nezar Al Sayegh

Abstract:

In order to meet the increasing demand for housing care for Kuwaiti citizens, the government authorities in Kuwait are undertaking a series of projects in the form of new large cities, outside the current urban area. Al Mutlaa City located to the north-west of the Kuwait Metropolitan Area is one such project out of the 15 planned new cities. The city accommodates a wide variety of residential developments, employment opportunities, commercial, recreational, health care and institutional uses. This paper examines the application of comprehensive transportation demand modeling works undertaken in VISUM platform to understand the future intracity and intercity travel distribution patterns in Kuwait. The scope of models developed varied in levels of detail: strategic model update, sub-area models representing future demand of Al Mutlaa City, sub-area models built to estimate the demand in the residential neighborhoods of the city. This paper aims at offering model update framework that facilitates easy integration between sub-area models and strategic national models for unified traffic forecasts. This paper presents the transportation demand modeling results utilized in informing the planning of multi-modal transportation system for Al Mutlaa City. This paper also presents the household survey data collection efforts undertaken using GPS devices (first time in Kuwait) and notebook computer based digital survey forms for interviewing representative sample of citizens and residents. The survey results formed the basis of estimating trip generation rates and trip distribution coefficients used in the strategic base year model calibration and validation process.

Keywords: GPS based household surveys, transportation infrastructure, origin-destination trip matrices, traffic forecasts, transportation demand modeling, travel behavior patterns.

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1175 Cirrhosis Mortality Prediction as Classification Using Frequent Subgraph Mining

Authors: Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Diego Klabjan, Chenxi Ge, Daniela Ladner, Parker Stride

Abstract:

In this work, we use machine learning and data analysis techniques to predict the one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients. Data from 2,322 patients with liver cirrhosis are collected at a single medical center. Different machine learning models are applied to predict one-year mortality. A comprehensive feature space including demographic information, comorbidity, clinical procedure and laboratory tests is being analyzed. A temporal pattern mining technic called Frequent Subgraph Mining (FSM) is being used. Model for End-stage liver disease (MELD) prediction of mortality is used as a comparator. All of our models statistically significantly outperform the MELD-score model and show an average 10% improvement of the area under the curve (AUC). The FSM technic itself does not improve the model significantly, but FSM, together with a machine learning technique called an ensemble, further improves the model performance. With the abundance of data available in healthcare through electronic health records (EHR), existing predictive models can be refined to identify and treat patients at risk for higher mortality. However, due to the sparsity of the temporal information needed by FSM, the FSM model does not yield significant improvements. Our work applies modern machine learning algorithms and data analysis methods on predicting one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients and builds a model that predicts one-year mortality significantly more accurate than the MELD score. We have also tested the potential of FSM and provided a new perspective of the importance of clinical features.

Keywords: machine learning, liver cirrhosis, subgraph mining, supervised learning

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1174 A Research on DC Voltage Offsets Generated by PWM-Controlled Inverters

Authors: Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The increasing penetration of Distributed Generation and storage connected to the distribution network via PWM converters increases the possibility of a DC-component (offset) in voltage or current flowing into the grid. This occurs when even harmonics are present in the network voltage. DC-components can affect the operation and safety of several grid components. Therefore, an investigation of the way they are produced is important in order to take appropriate measures for their elimination. Further research on DC-components that appear on output voltage of converters is performed for different parameters of PWM technique and characteristics of even harmonics.

Keywords: Asymmetric even harmonics, DC-offsets, distributed generation, electric machine drive systems, power quality.

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1173 3D CFD Modelling of the Airflow and Heat Transfer in Cold Room Filled with Dates

Authors: Zina Ghiloufi, Tahar Khir

Abstract:

A transient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to determine the velocity and temperature distribution in different positions cold room during pre-cooling of dates. The turbulence model used is the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) with the standard wall function, the air. The numerical results obtained show that cooling rate is not uniform inside the room; the product at the medium of room has a slower cooling rate. This cooling heterogeneity has a large effect on the energy consumption during cold storage.

Keywords: Numerical simulation, CFD, k-ω (SST), cold room, dates, cooling rate.

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1172 Analysis of a PWM Boost Inverter for Solar Home Application

Authors: Rafia Akhter, Aminul Hoque

Abstract:

Solar Cells are destined to supply electric energy beginning from primary resources. It can charge a battery up to 12V dc. For residential use an inverter for 12V dc to 220Vac conversion is desired. For this a static DC-AC converter is necessarily inserted between the solar cells and the distribution network. This paper describes a new P.W.M. strategy for a voltage source inverter. This modulation strategy reduces the energy losses and harmonics in the P.W.M. voltage source inverter. This technique allows the P.W.M. voltage source inverter to become a new feasible solution for solar home application.

Keywords: Boost Inverter, inverter, duty cycle, PWM

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1171 Design of Digital Differentiator to Optimize Relative Error

Authors: Vinita V. Sondur, Vilas B. Sondur, Narasimha H. Ayachit

Abstract:

It is observed that the Weighted least-square (WLS) technique, including the modifications, results in equiripple error curve. The resultant error as a percent of the ideal value is highly non-uniformly distributed over the range of frequencies for which the differentiator is designed. The present paper proposes a modification to the technique so that the optimization procedure results in lower maximum relative error compared to the ideal values. Simulation results for first order as well as higher order differentiators are given to illustrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Differentiator, equiripple, error distribution, relative error.

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1170 Study of Qualitative and Quantitative Metric for Pixel Factor Mapping and Extended Pixel Mapping Method

Authors: Indradip Banerjee, Souvik Bhattacharyya, Gautam Sanyal

Abstract:

In this paper, an approach is presented to investigate the performance of Pixel Factor Mapping (PFM) and Extended PMM (Pixel Mapping Method) through the qualitative and quantitative approach. These methods are tested against a number of well-known image similarity metrics and statistical distribution techniques. The PFM has been performed in spatial domain as well as frequency domain and the Extended PMM has also been performed in spatial domain through large set of images available in the internet.

Keywords: Qualitative, quantitative, PFM, EXTENDED PMM.

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