Search results for: Grey Incidence Model.

Authors: Yves Lacroix, Van Van Than, Didier Leandri, Pierre Liardet

Abstract:

The western Tombolo of the Giens peninsula in southern France, known as Almanarre beach, is subject to coastal erosion. We are trying to use computer simulation in order to propose solutions to stop this erosion. Our aim was first to determine the main factors for this erosion and successfully apply a coupled hydrosedimentological numerical model based on observations and measurements that have been performed on the site for decades. We have gathered all available information and data about waves, winds, currents, tides, bathymetry, coastal line, and sediments concerning the site. These have been divided into two sets: one devoted to calibrating a numerical model using Mike 21 software, the other to serve as a reference in order to numerically compare the present situation to what it could be if we implemented different types of underwater constructions. This paper presents the first part of the study: selecting and melting different sources into a coherent data basis, identifying the main erosion factors, and calibrating the coupled software model against the selected reference period. Our results bring calibration of the numerical model with good fitting coefficients. They also show that the winter South-Western storm events conjugated to depressive weather conditions constitute a major factor of erosion, mainly due to wave impact in the northern part of the Almanarre beach. Together, current and wind impact is shown negligible.

Keywords: Almanarre beach, coastal erosion, hydro-sedimentological, numerical model.

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Authors: Navjot Kaur, Mini Ghosh, S.S. Bhatia

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This paper proposes and analyzes an SIRS epidemic model incorporating the effects of the awareness programs driven by the media. Media and media driven awareness programs play a promising role in disseminating the information about outbreak of any disease across the globe. This motivates people to take precautionary measures and guides the infected individuals to get hospitalized. Timely hospitalization helps to reduce diagnostic delays and hence results in fast recovery of infected individuals. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the media on the spread and control of infectious diseases. This model is analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. The sensitivity of parameters has been discussed and it has been found that the awareness programs driven by the media have positive impact in reducing the infection prevalence of the infective population in the region under consideration.

Keywords: Infectious diseases, SIRS model, Media, Stability theory, Simulation.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

Adequate management, control, and optimization of cost is an essential element for a successful construction project. A multiple linear regression optimization model was formulated to address the problem of costs associated with pile construction operations. A total of 32 PVC-reinforced concrete piles with diameter of 300 mm, 5.4 m long, were studied during the construction. The soil upon which the piles were installed was mostly silty sand, and completely submerged in water at Bonny, Nigeria. The piles are friction piles installed by boring method, using a piling auger. The volumes of soil removed, the weight of reinforcement cage installed, and volumes of fresh concrete poured into the PVC void were determined. The cost of constructing each pile based on the calculated quantities was determined. A model was derived and subjected to statistical tests using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The model turned out to be adequate, fit, and have a high predictive accuracy with an R2 value of 0.833.

Keywords: Cost optimization modelling, multiple linear models, pile construction, regression models.

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Authors: Jiaji Zhou, Le Liang, Long Chen

Abstract:

Geographic Profiling has successfully assisted investigations for serial crimes. Considering the multi-cluster feature of serial criminal spots, we propose a Multi-point Centrography model as a natural extension of Single-point Centrography for geographic profiling. K-means clustering is first performed on the data samples and then Single-point Centrography is adopted to derive a probability distribution on each cluster. Finally, a weighted combinations of each distribution is formed to make next-crime spot prediction. Experimental study on real cases demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Keywords: Geographic profiling, Centrography model, K-means algorithm

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Authors: Yunyong Guo, Man Wang, Bryan Guo, Nathan Guo

Abstract:

This paper presents an advanced security and privacy model tailored for Telehealth systems, emphasizing end-to-end protection across IoT, Fog, and Cloud components. The proposed model integrates encryption, key management, intrusion detection, and privacy-preserving measures to safeguard patient data. A comprehensive simulation study evaluates the model's effectiveness in scenarios such as unauthorized access, physical breaches, and insider threats. Results indicate notable success in detecting and mitigating threats yet underscore areas for refinement. The study contributes insights into the intricate balance between security and usability in Telehealth environments, setting the stage for continued advancements.

Keywords: Cloud, enhancing security, Fog, IoT, telehealth.

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Authors: V. Viduĉić, J. Žanić Mikuliĉić, M. Raĉić, K. Sladojević

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The research presented in this paper has been focused on analysing the impact of traffic on the sustainable development of tourism in Croatia's Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County by the year 2020, based on the figures and trends reported in 2014 and using the relevant variables that characterise the synergy of traffic and tourism in, speaking from the geographic viewpoint, the most problematic county in the Republic of Croatia. The basic hypothesis has been confirmed through scientifically obtained research results, through the quantification of the model's variables and the direct growth rates of the designed model. On the basis of scientific insights into the sustainable development of traffic and tourism in Dubrovacko- Neretvanska County, it is possible to propose a new information model for traffic at the service of the sustainable development of tourism in the County for the period 2014-2020.

Keywords: Environment protection, hotel industry, private sector, quantification.

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Authors: Alia Abdul Ghaffar, Tom Richardson

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A model reference adaptive control and a fixed gain LQR control were implemented in the height controller of a quadrotor that has parametric uncertainties due to the act of picking up an object of unknown dimension and mass. It is shown that an adaptive controller, unlike the fixed gain controller, is capable of ensuring a stable tracking performance under such condition, although adaptive control suffers from several limitations. The combination of both adaptive and fixed gain control in the controller architecture can result in an enhanced tracking performance in the presence parametric uncertainties.

Keywords: UAV, quadrotor, model reference adaptive control, LQR control.

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Authors: Naeem Muhammad, Yves Vandewoude, Yolande Berbers, Robert Feldt

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The Requirements Abstraction Model (RAM) helps in managing abstraction in requirements by organizing them at four levels (product, feature, function and component). The RAM is adaptable and can be tailored to meet the needs of the various organizations. Because software requirements are an important source of information for developing high-level tests, organizations willing to adopt the RAM model need to know the suitability of the RAM requirements for developing high-level tests. To investigate this suitability, test cases from twenty randomly selected requirements were developed, analyzed and graded. Requirements were selected from the requirements document of a Course Management System, a web based software system that supports teachers and students in performing course related tasks. This paper describes the results of the requirements document analysis. The results show that requirements at lower levels in the RAM are suitable for developing executable tests whereas it is hard to develop from requirements at higher levels.

Keywords: Market-driven requirements engineering, requirements abstraction model, requirements abstraction, system testing.

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Authors: Daohong Yang, Xiang Zhang, Wanting Zhou, Lei Li

Abstract:

Visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (VSLAM) is a technology that gathers information about the surrounding environment to ascertain its own position and create a map. It is widely used in computer vision, robotics, and various other fields. Many visual SLAM systems, such as OBSLAM3, utilize a constant velocity motion model. The utilization of this model facilitates the determination of the initial pose of the current frame, thereby enhancing the efficiency and precision of feature matching. However, it is often difficult to satisfy the constant velocity motion model in actual situations. This can result in a significant deviation between the obtained initial pose and the true value, leading to errors in nonlinear optimization results. Therefore, this paper proposes a motion model based on acceleration that can be applied to most SLAM systems. To provide a more accurate description of the camera pose acceleration, we separate the pose transformation matrix into its rotation matrix and translation vector components. The rotation matrix is now represented by a rotation vector. We assume that, over a short period, the changes in rotating angular velocity and translation vector remain constant. Based on this assumption, the initial pose of the current frame is estimated. In addition, the error of the constant velocity model is analyzed theoretically. Finally, we apply our proposed approach to the ORBSLAM3 system and evaluate two sets of sequences from the TUM datasets. The results show that our proposed method has a more accurate initial pose estimation, resulting in an improvement of 6.61% and 6.46% in the accuracy of the ORBSLAM3 system on the two test sequences, respectively.

Keywords: Error estimation, constant acceleration motion model, pose estimation, visual SLAM.

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Authors: Paul Christodoulides, Georgios Florides, Panayiotis Pouloupatis, Vassilios Messaritis, Lazaros Lazari

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Ground-source heat pumps achieve higher efficiencies than conventional air-source heat pumps because they exchange heat with the ground that is cooler in summer and hotter in winter than the air environment. Earth heat exchangers are essential parts of the ground-source heat pumps and the accurate prediction of their performance is of fundamental importance. This paper presents the development and validation of a numerical model through an incompressible fluid flow, for the simulation of energy and temperature changes in and around a U-tube borehole heat exchanger. The FlexPDE software is used to solve the resulting simultaneous equations that model the heat exchanger. The validated model (through a comparison with experimental data) is then used to extract conclusions on how various parameters like the U-tube diameter, the variation of the ground thermal conductivity and specific heat and the borehole filling material affect the temperature of the fluid.

Keywords: U-tube borehole, energy flow, incompressible fluid, numerical model

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Authors: Chongyang Ye, Rong Liu

Abstract:

Elastic compression stockings (ECSs) have been widely applied in prophylaxis and treatment of chronic venous insufficiency of lower extremities. The medical function of ECS is to improve venous return and increase muscular pumping action to facilitate blood circulation, which is largely determined by the complex interaction between the ECS and lower limb tissues. Understanding the mechanical transmission of ECS along the skin surface, deeper tissues, and vascular system is essential to assess the effectiveness of the ECSs. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) model of the leg-ECS system integrated with a 3D fluid-solid interaction (FSI) model of the leg-vein system was constructed to analyze the biomechanical properties of veins and soft tissues under different ECS compression. The Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of the human leg was divided into three regions, including soft tissues, bones (tibia and fibula) and veins (peroneal vein, great saphenous vein, and small saphenous vein). The ECSs with pressure ranges from 15 to 26 mmHg (Classes I and II) were adopted in the developed FE-FSI model. The soft tissue was assumed as a Neo-Hookean hyperelastic model with the fixed bones, and the ECSs were regarded as an orthotropic elastic shell. The interfacial pressure and stress transmission were simulated by the FE model, and venous hemodynamics properties were simulated by the FSI model. The experimental validation indicated that the simulated interfacial pressure distributions were in accordance with the pressure measurement results. The developed model can be used to predict interfacial pressure, stress transmission, and venous hemodynamics exerted by ECSs and optimize the structure and materials properties of ECSs design, thus improving the efficiency of compression therapy.

Keywords: Elastic compression stockings, fluid-solid interaction, tissue and vein properties, prediction.

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Authors: A. Nabhan, Mohamed R. El-Sharkawy, A. Rashed

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to dedicate the belt drive system faults like cogs missing, misalignment and belt worm using vibration analysis technique. Experimentally, the belt drive test-rig is equipped to measure vibrations signals under different operating conditions. Finite element 3D model of belt drive system is created and vibration response analyzed using commercial finite element software ABAQUS/CAE.  Root mean square (RMS) and Crest Factor will serve as indicators of average amplitude of envelope analysis signals. The vibration signals pattern obtained from the simulation model and experimental data have the same characteristics. It can be concluded that each case of the RMS is more effective in detecting the defect for acceleration response. While Crest Factor parameter has a response with the displacement and velocity of vibration signals. Also it can be noticed that the model has difficulty in completing the solution when the misalignment angle is higher than 1 degree.

Keywords: Simulation model, misalignment, cogs missing and vibration analysis.

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath

Abstract:

This paper features the kinematic modelling of a 5-axis stationary articulated robot arm which is used for doing successful robotic manipulation task in its workspace. To start with, a 5-axes articulated robot was designed entirely from scratch and from indigenous components and a brief kinematic modelling was performed and using this kinematic model, the pick and place task was performed successfully in the work space of the robot. A user friendly GUI was developed in C++ language which was used to perform the successful robotic manipulation task using the developed mathematical kinematic model. This developed kinematic model also incorporates the obstacle avoiding algorithms also during the pick and place operation.

Keywords: Robot, Sensors, Kinematics, Computer, Control, PNP, LCD, Software.

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Authors: Ahmad Seif, Karim Zare, Asadallah Boshra, Mehran Aghaie

Abstract:

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations were performed to compute nitrogen-14 and boron-11 nuclear quadrupole resonance (NQR) spectroscopy parameters in the representative model of armchair boron nitride nanotube (BNNT) for the first time. The considered model consisting of 1 nm length of H-capped (5, 5) single-wall BNNT were first allowed to fully relax and then the NQR calculations were carried out on the geometrically optimized model. The evaluated nuclear quadrupole coupling constants and asymmetry parameters for the mentioned nuclei reveal that the model can be divided into seven layers of nuclei with an equivalent electrostatic environment where those nuclei at the ends of tubes have a very strong electrostatic environment compared to the other nuclei along the length of tubes. The calculations were performed via Gaussian 98 package of program.

Keywords: Armchair Nanotube, Density Functional Theory, Nuclear Quadrupole Resonance.

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Authors: Prathuang Usaborisut, Dithaporn Thungsotanon

Abstract:

Soil compaction induced by a tractor towing trailer becomes a major problem associated to sugarcane productivity. Soil beneath the tractor’s tire is not only under compressing stress but also shearing stress. Therefore, in order to help to understand such effects on soil, this research aimed to determine stress state in soil and predict compaction of soil under a tractive tire. The octahedral stress ratios under the tires were higher than one and much higher under higher draft forces. Moreover, the ratio was increasing with increase of number of tire’s passage. Soil compaction model was developed using data acquired from triaxial tests. The model was then used to predict soil bulk density under tractive tire. The maximum error was about 4% at 15 cm depth under lower draft force and tended to increase with depth and draft force. At depth of 30 cm and under higher draft force, the maximum error was about 16%.

Keywords: Draft force, soil compaction model, stress state, tractive tire.

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Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Päivi Leino-Arjas, Kustaa Piha, Akseli Aittomäki, Peppiina Saastamoinen, Ossi Rahkonen, Eero Lahelma

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Sickness absence represents a major economic and social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model applicability to complicated longitudinal data.

Keywords: Sickness absence, longitudinal data, methodologies, mix-distribution model.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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Authors: Chuang-Chun Chiou, Chien-Ju Liu, Jenteng Tsai

Abstract:

Due to the rise of aging population, effective utilization of healthcare resources has become an important issue. With the advance of ICT technology, the application of tele-healthcare service has received more attention than ever. The main purpose of this research is to investigate how to conduct innovative design for tele-healthcare service based on user-s perspectives. First, the healthcare service blueprint was used to describe the processes of tele-healthcare service delivery, and then construct PZB service quality gap model based on the literature and practitioners- interviews. Next, TRIZ theory is applied to implement service innovation. We found the proposed service innovation procedures can effectively improve the quality of service design.

Keywords: Tele-homecare, Service blueprint, TRIZ, PZB model

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Authors: Faisal Asad Aburub

Abstract:

Many organizations are investing in web applications and technologies in order to be competitive, some of them could not achieve its goals. The quality of web-based applications could play an important role for organizations to be competitive. So the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of quality of web-based applications to achieve a competitive advantage. A new model has been developed. An empirical investigation was performed on a banking sector in Jordan to test the new model. The results show that impact of web-based applications on competitive advantage is significant. Finally, further work is planned to validate and evaluate the proposed model using several domains.

Keywords: Competitive advantage, web-based applications, empirical investigation.

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Authors: Youngjae Jin, Daeshik Kim

Abstract:

This paper describes a cycle accurate simulation results of weight values learned by an auto-encoder behavior model in terms of pre-route simulation. Given the results we visualized the first layer representations with natural images. Many common deep learning threads have focused on learning high-level abstraction of unlabeled raw data by unsupervised feature learning. However, in the process of handling such a huge amount of data, the learning method’s computation complexity and time limited advanced research. These limitations came from the fact these algorithms were computed by using only single core CPUs. For this reason, parallel-based hardware, FPGAs, was seen as a possible solution to overcome these limitations. We adopted and simulated the ready-made auto-encoder to design a behavior model in VerilogHDL before designing hardware. With the auto-encoder behavior model pre-route simulation, we obtained the cycle accurate results of the parameter of each hidden layer by using MODELSIM. The cycle accurate results are very important factor in designing a parallel-based digital hardware. Finally this paper shows an appropriate operation of behavior model based pre-route simulation. Moreover, we visualized learning latent representations of the first hidden layer with Kyoto natural image dataset.

Keywords: Auto-encoder, Behavior model simulation, Digital hardware design, Pre-route simulation, Unsupervised feature learning.

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Authors: Manato Ono, Hiromitsu Ogawa, Naohiro Ban, Yoshihisa Ishida

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This paper deals with a design method of a discrete modified Internal Model Control (IMC) for a plant with an integrator and dead time. If there is a load disturbance in the input or output side of the plant, the proposed control system can eliminate the steady-state error caused by it. The disturbance compensator in this method is simple and its order is low regardless of that of a plant. The simulation studies show that the proposed method has superior performance for a load disturbance rejection and robustness.

Keywords: Internal Model Control, Smith Predictor, Dead time, Integrator.

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Authors: A. Shamsi, N. Choupani

Abstract:

Active vibration isolation systems are less commonly used than passive systems due to their associated cost and power requirements. In principle, semi-active isolation systems can deliver the versatility, adaptability and higher performance of fully active systems for a fraction of the power consumption. Various semi-active control algorithms have been suggested in the past. This paper studies the 4DOF model of semi-active suspension performance controlled by on–off and continuous skyhook damping control strategy. The frequency and transient responses of model are evaluated in terms of body acceleration, roll angle and tire deflection and are compared with that of a passive damper. The results show that the semi-active system controlled by skyhook strategy always provides better isolation than a conventional passively damped system except at tire natural frequencies.

Keywords: Semi-active suspension system, Skyhook, Vibration isolation, 4DOF model.

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Authors: Emrah Bulut, Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida

Abstract:

In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.

Keywords: C-means clustering, Fuzzy time series, Multi-variate design

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Azadeh Maddahi, Arash Tahriri

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is developing a model for audit quality, with regard to the contextual and environmental attributes of the audit profession in Iran. For this purpose, using an exploratory approach, and because of the special attributes of the auditing profession in Iran in terms of the legal environment, regulatory and supervisory mechanisms, audit firms size, and etc., we used grounded theory approach as a qualitative research method. Therefore, we got the opinions of the experts in the auditing and capital market areas through unstructured interviews. As a result, the authors revealed the determinants of audit quality, and by using these determinants, developed an Integrated Audit Quality Model, including causal conditions, intervening conditions, context, as well as action strategies related to AQ and their consequences. In this research, audit quality is studied using a systemic approach. According to this approach, the quality of inputs, processes, and outputs of auditing determines the quality of auditing, therefore, the quality of all different parts of this system is considered.

Keywords: Audit quality, integrated audit quality model, audit supply, demand for audit service, grounded theory.

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Authors: V. Nikkhah Rashidabad, M. Manteghian, M. Masoumi, S. Mousavian, D. Ashouri

Abstract:

In this research, the capability of neural networks in  modeling and learning complicated and nonlinear relations has been  used to develop a model for the prediction of changes in the diameter  of bubbles in pool boiling distilled water. The input parameters used  in the development of this network include element temperature, heat  flux, and retention time of bubbles. The test data obtained from the  experiment of the pool boiling of distilled water, and the  measurement of the bubbles form on the cylindrical element. The  model was developed based on training algorithm, which is  typologically of back-propagation type. Considering the correlation  coefficient obtained from this model is 0.9633. This shows that this  model can be trusted for the simulation and modeling of the size of  bubble and thermal transfer of boiling.

Keywords: Bubble Diameter, Heat Flux, Neural Network, Training Algorithm.

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Authors: Ramayah Thurasamy, Osman Mohamad, Azizah Omar, Malliga Marimuthu

Abstract:

This paper presents the research agenda that has been proposed to develop an integrated model to explain technology adoption of SMEs in Malaysia. SMEs form over 90% of all business entities in Malaysia and they have been contributing to the development of the nation. Technology adoption has been a thorn issue among SMEs as they require big outlay which might not be available to the SMEs. Although resource has been an issue among SMEs they cannot lie low and ignore the technological advancements that are taking place at a rapid pace. With that in mind this paper proposes a model to explain the technology adoption issue among SMEs.

Keywords: Technology adoption, integrated model, Small and Medium Enterprises (SME), Malaysia

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Authors: Zenaide Carvalho da Silva, Andrey Ricardo Pimentel, Leandro Rodrigues Ferreira

Abstract:

Learning styles (LSs) correspond to the individual preferences of a person regarding the modes and forms in which he/she prefers to learn throughout the teaching/learning process. The content presentation of learning objects (LOs) using knowledge about the students’ LSs offers them digital educational resources tailored to their individual learning preferences. In this context, the most relevant characteristics of the LSs along with the most appropriate forms of LOs' content presentation were mapped and associated. Such was performed in order to define the composition of an adaptive model of LO's content presentation considering the LSs, which was called Adaptation of Content Presentation of Learning Objects Considering Learning Styles (ACPLOLS). LO prototypes were created with interfaces that were adapted to students' LSs. These prototypes were based on a model created for validation of the approaches that were used, which were established through experiments with the students. The results of subjective measures of students' emotional responses demonstrated that the ACPLOLS has reached the desired results in relation to the adequacy of the LOs interface, in accordance with the Felder-Silverman LSs Model.

Keywords: Adaptation, interface, learning styles, learning objects, students.

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Authors: B. R. Shen, J. R. Wang, J. H. Yang, S. W. Chen, C. Shih, Y. Chiang, Y. F. Chang, Y. H. Huang

Abstract:

In this research, TRACE code with the interface code-SNAP was used to simulate and analyze the SBO (station blackout) accident which occurred in Maanshan PWR (pressurized water reactor) nuclear power plant (NPP). There are four main steps in this research. First, the SBO accident data of Maanshan NPP were collected. Second, the TRACE/SNAP model of Maanshan NPP was established by using these data. Third, this TRACE/SNAP model was used to perform the simulation and analysis of SBO accident. Finally, the simulation and analysis of SBO with mitigation equipments was performed. The analysis results of TRACE are consistent with the data of Maanshan NPP. The mitigation equipments of Maanshan can maintain the safety of Maanshan in the SBO according to the TRACE predictions.

Keywords: PWR, TRACE, SBO, Maanshan.

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Authors: Abeer Amayri, Akif A. Bulgak

Abstract:

Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products. As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a US automotive company having two assembly plants and four potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works in practice.

Keywords: Global supply chains, quality, stochastic programming, supplier selection.

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Authors: M. Karimpour, N. Elkhoury, L. Hitihamillage, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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There is a necessity among rail transportation authorities for a superior understanding of the rail track degradation overtime and the factors influencing rail degradation. They need an accurate technique to identify the time when rail tracks fail or need maintenance. In turn, this will help to increase the level of safety and comfort of the passengers and the vehicles as well as improve the cost effectiveness of maintenance activities. An accurate model can play a key role in prediction of the long-term behaviour of railroad tracks. An accurate model can decrease the cost of maintenance. In this research, the rail track degradation is predicted using an autoregressive moving average with exogenous input (ARMAX). An ARMAX has been implemented on Melbourne tram data to estimate the values for the tram track degradation. Gauge values and rail usage in Million Gross Tone (MGT) are the main parameters used in the model. The developed model can accurately predict the future status of the tram tracks.

Keywords: ARMAX, Dynamic systems, MGT, Prediction, Rail degradation.

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