Search results for: Code validation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1167

Search results for: Code validation

57 Nonlinear Finite Element Modeling of Deep Beam Resting on Linear and Nonlinear Random Soil

Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

Abstract:

An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.

Keywords: Finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability.

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56 Neutronic Study of Two Reactor Cores Cooled with Light and Heavy Water Using Computation Method

Authors: Z. Gholamzadeh, A. Zali, S. A. H. Feghhi, C. Tenreiro, Y. Kadi, M. Rezazadeh, M. Aref

Abstract:

Most HWRs currently use natural uranium fuel. Using enriched uranium fuel results in a significant improvement in fuel cycle costs and uranium utilization. On the other hand, reactivity changes of HWRs over the full range of operating conditions from cold shutdown to full power are small. This reduces the required reactivity worth of control devices and minimizes local flux distribution perturbations, minimizing potential problems due to transient local overheating of fuel. Analyzing heavy water effectiveness on neutronic parameters such as enrichment requirements, peaking factor and reactivity is important and should pay attention as primary concepts of a HWR core designing. Two nuclear nuclear reactors of CANDU-type and hexagonal-type reactor cores of 33 fuel assemblies and 19 assemblies in 1.04 P/D have been respectively simulated using MCNP-4C code. Using heavy water and light water as moderator have been compared for achieving less reactivity insertion and enrichment requirements. Two fuel matrixes of (232Th/235U)O2 and (238/235U)O2 have been compared to achieve more economical and safe design. Heavy water not only decreased enrichment needs, but it concluded in negative reactivity insertions during moderator density variations. Thorium oxide fuel assemblies of 2.3% enrichment loaded into the core of heavy water moderator resulted in 0.751 fission to absorption ratio and peaking factor of 1.7 using. Heavy water not only provides negative reactivity insertion during temperature raises which changes moderator density but concluded in 2 to 10 kg reduction of enrichment requirements, depend on geometry type.

Keywords: MCNP-4C, Reactor core, Multiplication factor, Reactivity, Peaking factor.

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55 Web Data Scraping Technology Using Term Frequency Inverse Document Frequency to Enhance the Big Data Quality on Sentiment Analysis

Authors: Sangita Pokhrel, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Swathi Ganesan

Abstract:

Tourism is a booming industry with huge future potential for global wealth and employment. There are countless data generated over social media sites every day, creating numerous opportunities to bring more insights to decision-makers. The integration of big data technology into the tourism industry will allow companies to conclude where their customers have been and what they like. This information can then be used by businesses, such as those in charge of managing visitor centres or hotels, etc., and the tourist can get a clear idea of places before visiting. The technical perspective of natural language is processed by analysing the sentiment features of online reviews from tourists, and we then supply an enhanced long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for sentiment feature extraction of travel reviews. We have constructed a web review database using a crawler and web scraping technique for experimental validation to evaluate the effectiveness of our methodology. The text form of sentences was first classified through VADER and RoBERTa model to get the polarity of the reviews. In this paper, we have conducted study methods for feature extraction, such as Count Vectorization and Term Frequency – Inverse Document Frequency (TFIDF) Vectorization and implemented Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classifier algorithm for the sentiment analysis to decide if the tourist’s attitude towards the destinations is positive, negative, or simply neutral based on the review text that they posted online. The results demonstrated that from the CNN algorithm, after pre-processing and cleaning the dataset, we received an accuracy of 96.12% for the positive and negative sentiment analysis.

Keywords: Counter vectorization, Convolutional Neural Network, Crawler, data technology, Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM, Web Scraping, sentiment analysis.

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54 Nuclear Fuel Safety Threshold Determined by Logistic Regression Plus Uncertainty

Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

Abstract:

Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: Logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation.

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53 Machine Learning Techniques in Bank Credit Analysis

Authors: Fernanda M. Assef, Maria Teresinha A. Steiner

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The aim of this paper is to compare and discuss better classifier algorithm options for credit risk assessment by applying different Machine Learning techniques. Using records from a Brazilian financial institution, this study uses a database of 5,432 companies that are clients of the bank, where 2,600 clients are classified as non-defaulters, 1,551 are classified as defaulters and 1,281 are temporarily defaulters, meaning that the clients are overdue on their payments for up 180 days. For each case, a total of 15 attributes was considered for a one-against-all assessment using four different techniques: Artificial Neural Networks Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP), Artificial Neural Networks Radial Basis Functions (ANN-RBF), Logistic Regression (LR) and finally Support Vector Machines (SVM). For each method, different parameters were analyzed in order to obtain different results when the best of each technique was compared. Initially the data were coded in thermometer code (numerical attributes) or dummy coding (for nominal attributes). The methods were then evaluated for each parameter and the best result of each technique was compared in terms of accuracy, false positives, false negatives, true positives and true negatives. This comparison showed that the best method, in terms of accuracy, was ANN-RBF (79.20% for non-defaulter classification, 97.74% for defaulters and 75.37% for the temporarily defaulter classification). However, the best accuracy does not always represent the best technique. For instance, on the classification of temporarily defaulters, this technique, in terms of false positives, was surpassed by SVM, which had the lowest rate (0.07%) of false positive classifications. All these intrinsic details are discussed considering the results found, and an overview of what was presented is shown in the conclusion of this study.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, ANNs, classifier algorithms, credit risk assessment, logistic regression, machine learning, support vector machines.

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52 The Effect of Cyclic Speed on the Wear Properties of Molybdenum Disulfide Greases under Extreme Pressure Loading Using 4 Balls Wear Tests

Authors: Gabi Nehme

Abstract:

The relationship between different types of Molybdenum disulfide greases under extreme pressure loading and different speed situations have been studied using Design of Experiment (DOE) under 1200rpm steady state rotational speed and cyclic frequencies between 2400 and 1200rpm using a Plint machine software to set up the different rotational speed situations.  Research described here is aimed at providing good friction and wear performance while optimizing cyclic frequencies and MoS2 concentration due to the recent concern about grease behavior in extreme pressure applications. Extreme load of 785 Newton was used in conjunction with different cyclic frequencies (2400rpm -3.75min, 1200rpm -7.5min, 2400rpm -3.75min, 1200rpm -7.5min), to examine lithium based grease with and without MoS2 for equal number of revolutions, and a total run of 36000 revolutions; then compared to 1200rpm steady speed for the same total number of revolutions. 4 Ball wear tester was utilized to run large number of experiments randomly selected by the DOE software. The grease was combined with fine grade MoS2 or technical grade then heated to 750C and the wear scar width was collected at the end of each test. DOE model validation results verify that the data were very significant and can be applied to a wide range of extreme pressure applications. Based on simulation results and Scanning Electron images (SEM), it has been found that wear was largely dependent on the cyclic frequency condition. It is believed that technical grade MoS2 greases under faster cyclic speeds perform better and provides antiwear film that can resist extreme pressure loadings. Figures showed reduced wear scars width and improved frictional values.

 

Keywords: MoS2 grease, wear, friction, extreme load, cyclic frequencies, aircraft grade bearing.

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51 A Simple and Empirical Refraction Correction Method for UAV-Based Shallow-Water Photogrammetry

Authors: I GD Yudha Partama, A. Kanno, Y. Akamatsu, R. Inui, M. Goto, M. Sekine

Abstract:

The aerial photogrammetry of shallow water bottoms has the potential to be an efficient high-resolution survey technique for shallow water topography, thanks to the advent of convenient UAV and automatic image processing techniques Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Multi-View Stereo (MVS)). However, it suffers from the systematic overestimation of the bottom elevation, due to the light refraction at the air-water interface. In this study, we present an empirical method to correct for the effect of refraction after the usual SfM-MVS processing, using common software. The presented method utilizes the empirical relation between the measured true depth and the estimated apparent depth to generate an empirical correction factor. Furthermore, this correction factor was utilized to convert the apparent water depth into a refraction-corrected (real-scale) water depth. To examine its effectiveness, we applied the method to two river sites, and compared the RMS errors in the corrected bottom elevations with those obtained by three existing methods. The result shows that the presented method is more effective than the two existing methods: The method without applying correction factor and the method utilizes the refractive index of water (1.34) as correction factor. In comparison with the remaining existing method, which used the additive terms (offset) after calculating correction factor, the presented method performs well in Site 2 and worse in Site 1. However, we found this linear regression method to be unstable when the training data used for calibration are limited. It also suffers from a large negative bias in the correction factor when the apparent water depth estimated is affected by noise, according to our numerical experiment. Overall, the good accuracy of refraction correction method depends on various factors such as the locations, image acquisition, and GPS measurement conditions. The most effective method can be selected by using statistical selection (e.g. leave-one-out cross validation).

Keywords: Bottom elevation, multi-view stereo, river, structure-from-motion.

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50 Reading against the Grain: Transcodifying Stimulus Meaning

Authors: Aba-Carina Pârlog

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The paper shows that on transferring sense from the SL to the TL, the translator’s reading against the grain determines the creation of a faulty pattern of rendering the original meaning in the receiving culture which reflects the use of misleading transformative codes. In this case, the translator is a writer per se who decides what goes in and out of the book, how the style is to be ciphered and what elements of ideology are to be highlighted. The paper also proves that figurative language must not be flattened for the sake of clarity or naturalness. The missing figurative elements make the translated text less interesting, less challenging and less vivid which reflects poorly on the writer. There is a close connection between style and the writer’s person. If the writer’s style is very much altered in a translation, the translation is useless as the original writer and his / her imaginative world can no longer be discovered. The purpose of the paper is to prove that adaptation is a dangerous tool which leads to variants that sometimes reflect the original less than the reader would wish to. It contradicts the very essence of the process of translation which is that of making an original work available in a foreign language. If the adaptive transformative codes are so flexible that they encourage the translator to repeatedly leave out parts of the original work, then a subversive pattern emerges which changes the entire book. In conclusion, as a result of using adaptation, manipulative or subversive effects are created in the translated work. This is generally achieved by adding new words or connotations, creating new figures of speech or using explicitations. The additional meanings of the original work are neglected and the translator creates new meanings, implications, emphases and contexts. Again s/he turns into a new author who enjoys the freedom of expressing his / her own ideas without the constraints of the original text. Reading against the grain is unadvisable during the process of translation and consequently, following personal common sense becomes essential in the field of translation as well as everywhere else, so that translation should not become a source of fantasy.

Keywords: Speculative aesthetics, substance of expression, transformative code, translation.

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49 Identifying a Drug Addict Person Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Mustafa Al Sukar, Azzam Sleit, Abdullatif Abu-Dalhoum, Bassam Al-Kasasbeh

Abstract:

Use and abuse of drugs by teens is very common and can have dangerous consequences. The drugs contribute to physical and sexual aggression such as assault or rape. Some teenagers regularly use drugs to compensate for depression, anxiety or a lack of positive social skills. Teen resort to smoking should not be minimized because it can be "gateway drugs" for other drugs (marijuana, cocaine, hallucinogens, inhalants, and heroin). The combination of teenagers' curiosity, risk taking behavior, and social pressure make it very difficult to say no. This leads most teenagers to the questions: "Will it hurt to try once?" Nowadays, technological advances are changing our lives very rapidly and adding a lot of technologies that help us to track the risk of drug abuse such as smart phones, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), Internet of Things (IoT), etc. This technique may help us to early discovery of drug abuse in order to prevent an aggravation of the influence of drugs on the abuser. In this paper, we have developed a Decision Support System (DSS) for detecting the drug abuse using Artificial Neural Network (ANN); we used a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) feed-forward neural network in developing the system. The input layer includes 50 variables while the output layer contains one neuron which indicates whether the person is a drug addict. An iterative process is used to determine the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons in each one. We used multiple experiment models that have been completed with Log-Sigmoid transfer function. Particularly, 10-fold cross validation schemes are used to access the generalization of the proposed system. The experiment results have obtained 98.42% classification accuracy for correct diagnosis in our system. The data had been taken from 184 cases in Jordan according to a set of questions compiled from Specialists, and data have been obtained through the families of drug abusers.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Decision Support System, drug abuse, drug addiction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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48 Social Enterprise Concept in Sustaining Agro-Industry Development in Indonesia: Case Study of Yourgood Social Business

Authors: Koko Iwan Agus Kurniawan, Dwi Purnomo, Anas Bunyamin, Arif Rahman Jaya

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Fruters model is a concept of technopreneurship-based on empowerment, in which technology research results were designed to create high value-added products and implemented as a locomotive of collaborative empowerment; thereby, the impact was widely spread. This model still needs to be inventoried and validated concerning the influenced variables in the business growth process. Model validation accompanied by mapping was required to be applicable to Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) agro-industry based on sustainable social business and existing real cases. This research explained the empowerment model of Yourgood, an SME, which emphasized on empowering the farmers/ breeders in farmers in rural areas, Cipageran, Cimahi, to housewives in urban areas, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. This research reviewed some works of literature discussing the agro-industrial development associated with the empowerment and social business process and gained a unique business model picture with the social business platform as well. Through the mapped business model, there were several advantages such as technology acquisition, independence, capital generation, good investment growth, strengthening of collaboration, and improvement of social impacts that can be replicated on other businesses. This research used analytical-descriptive research method consisting of qualitative analysis with design thinking approach and that of quantitative with the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process). Based on the results, the development of the enterprise’s process was highly affected by supplying farmers with the score of 0.248 out of 1, being the most valuable for the existence of the enterprise. It was followed by university (0.178), supplying farmers (0.153), business actors (0.128), government (0.100), distributor (0.092), techno-preneurship laboratory (0.069), banking (0.033), and Non-Government Organization (NGO) (0.031).

Keywords: Agro-Industry, small medium enterprises (SMEs), empowerment, design thinking, AHP, business model canvas, social business.

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47 LTE Performance Analysis in the City of Bogota Northern Zone for Two Different Mobile Broadband Operators over Qualipoc

Authors: Víctor D. Rodríguez, Edith P. Estupiñán, Juan C. Martínez

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The evolution in mobile broadband technologies has allowed to increase the download rates in users considering the current services. The evaluation of technical parameters at the link level is of vital importance to validate the quality and veracity of the connection, thus avoiding large losses of data, time and productivity. Some of these failures may occur between the eNodeB (Evolved Node B) and the user equipment (UE), so the link between the end device and the base station can be observed. LTE (Long Term Evolution) is considered one of the IP-oriented mobile broadband technologies that work stably for data and VoIP (Voice Over IP) for those devices that have that feature. This research presents a technical analysis of the connection and channeling processes between UE and eNodeB with the TAC (Tracking Area Code) variables, and analysis of performance variables (Throughput, Signal to Interference and Noise Ratio (SINR)). Three measurement scenarios were proposed in the city of Bogotá using QualiPoc, where two operators were evaluated (Operator 1 and Operator 2). Once the data were obtained, an analysis of the variables was performed determining that the data obtained in transmission modes vary depending on the parameters BLER (Block Error Rate), performance and SNR (Signal-to-Noise Ratio). In the case of both operators, differences in transmission modes are detected and this is reflected in the quality of the signal. In addition, due to the fact that both operators work in different frequencies, it can be seen that Operator 1, despite having spectrum in Band 7 (2600 MHz), together with Operator 2, is reassigning to another frequency, a lower band, which is AWS (1700 MHz), but the difference in signal quality with respect to the establishment with data by the provider Operator 2 and the difference found in the transmission modes determined by the eNodeB in Operator 1 is remarkable.

Keywords: BLER, LTE, Network, Qualipoc, SNR.

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46 Transcriptomics Analysis on Comparing Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer versus Normal Lung, and Early Stage Compared versus Late-Stages of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Authors: Achitphol Chookaew, Paramee Thongsukhsai, Patamarerk Engsontia, Narongwit Nakwan, Pritsana Raugrut

Abstract:

Lung cancer is one of the most common malignancies and primary cause of death due to cancer worldwide. Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the main subtype in which majority of patients present with advanced-stage disease. Herein, we analyzed differentially expressed genes to find potential biomarkers for lung cancer diagnosis as well as prognostic markers. We used transcriptome data from our 2 NSCLC patients and public data (GSE81089) composing of 8 NSCLC and 10 normal lung tissues. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between NSCLC and normal tissue and between early-stage and late-stage NSCLC were analyzed by the DESeq2. Pairwise correlation was used to find the DEGs with false discovery rate (FDR) adjusted p-value £ 0.05 and |log2 fold change| ³ 4 for NSCLC versus normal and FDR adjusted p-value £ 0.05 with |log2 fold change| ³ 2 for early versus late-stage NSCLC. Bioinformatic tools were used for functional and pathway analysis. Moreover, the top ten genes in each comparison group were verified the expression and survival analysis via GEPIA. We found 150 up-regulated and 45 down-regulated genes in NSCLC compared to normal tissues. Many immnunoglobulin-related genes e.g., IGHV4-4, IGHV5-10-1, IGHV4-31, IGHV4-61, and IGHV1-69D were significantly up-regulated. 22 genes were up-regulated, and five genes were down-regulated in late-stage compared to early-stage NSCLC. The top five DEGs genes were KRT6B, SPRR1A, KRT13, KRT6A and KRT5. Keratin 6B (KRT6B) was the most significantly increased gene in the late-stage NSCLC. From GEPIA analysis, we concluded that IGHV4-31 and IGKV1-9 might be used as diagnostic biomarkers, while KRT6B and KRT6A might be used as prognostic biomarkers. However, further clinical validation is needed.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, differentially expressed genes, non-small cell lung cancer, transcriptomics.

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45 Development of a Paediatric Head Model for the Computational Analysis of Head Impact Interactions

Authors: G. A. Khalid, M. D. Jones, R. Prabhu, A. Mason-Jones, W. Whittington, H. Bakhtiarydavijani, P. S. Theobald

Abstract:

Head injury in childhood is a common cause of death or permanent disability from injury. However, despite its frequency and significance, there is little understanding of how a child’s head responds during injurious loading. Whilst Infant Post Mortem Human Subject (PMHS) experimentation is a logical approach to understand injury biomechanics, it is the authors’ opinion that a lack of subject availability is hindering potential progress. Computer modelling adds great value when considering adult populations; however, its potential remains largely untapped for infant surrogates. The complexities of child growth and development, which result in age dependent changes in anatomy, geometry and physical response characteristics, present new challenges for computational simulation. Further geometric challenges are presented by the intricate infant cranial bones, which are separated by sutures and fontanelles and demonstrate a visible fibre orientation. This study presents an FE model of a newborn infant’s head, developed from high-resolution computer tomography scans, informed by published tissue material properties. To mimic the fibre orientation of immature cranial bone, anisotropic properties were applied to the FE cranial bone model, with elastic moduli representing the bone response both parallel and perpendicular to the fibre orientation. Biofiedility of the computational model was confirmed by global validation against published PMHS data, by replicating experimental impact tests with a series of computational simulations, in terms of head kinematic responses. Numerical results confirm that the FE head model’s mechanical response is in favourable agreement with the PMHS drop test results.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, impact simulation, infant head trauma, material properties, post mortem human subjects.

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44 Load Transfer Mechanism Based Unified Strut-and-Tie Modeling for Design of Concrete Beams

Authors: Ahmed, M., Yasser A., Mahmoud H., Ahmed, A., Abdulla M. S., Nazar, S.

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Strut-and-Tie Models (STM) for the design of concrete beams, comprising of struts, ties, nodes as the basic tools, is conceptually simple, but its realization for complex concrete structure is not straightforward and depends on flow of internal forces in the structure. STM technique has won wide acceptance for deep member and shear design. STM technique is a unified approach that considers all load effects (bending, axial, shear, and torsion) simultaneously, not just applicable to shear loading only. The present study is to portray Strut-and-Tie Modeling based on Load-Transfer-Mechanisms as a unified method to analyze, design and detailing for deep and slender concrete beams. Three shear span- effective depth ratio (a/ d) are recommended for the modeling of STM elements corresponding to dominant load paths. The study also discusses the research work conduct on effective stress of concrete, tie end anchorage, and transverse reinforcement demand under different load transfer mechanism. It is also highlighted that to make the STM versatile tool for design of beams applicable to all shear spans, the effective stress of concrete and, transverse reinforcement demand, inclined angle of strut, and anchorage requirements of tie bars is required to be correlated with respect to load transfer mechanism. The country code provisions are to be modified and updated to apply for generalized design of concrete deep and slender member using load transfer mechanism based STM technique. Examples available in literature are reanalyzed with refined STM based on load transfer mechanisms and results are compared. It is concluded from the results that proposed approach will require true reinforcement demand depending on dominant force transfer action in concrete beam.

Keywords: Deep member, Load transfer mechanism, Strut-and-Tie Model, Strut, Truss.

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43 A Case Study on Performance of Isolated Bridges under Near-Fault Ground Motion

Authors: Daniele Losanno, H. A. Hadad, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

This paper presents a numerical investigation on the seismic performance of a benchmark bridge with different optimal isolation systems under near fault ground motion. Usually, very large displacements make seismic isolation an unfeasible solution due to boundary conditions, especially in case of existing bridges or high risk seismic regions. Hence, near-fault ground motions are most likely to affect either structures with long natural period range like isolated structures or structures sensitive to velocity content such as viscously damped structures. The work is aimed at analyzing the seismic performance of a three-span continuous bridge designed with different isolation systems having different levels of damping. The case study was analyzed in different configurations including: (a) simply supported, (b) isolated with lead rubber bearings (LRBs), (c) isolated with rubber isolators and 10% classical damping (HDLRBs), and (d) isolated with rubber isolators and 70% supplemental damping ratio. Case (d) represents an alternative control strategy that combines the effect of seismic isolation with additional supplemental damping trying to take advantages from both solutions. The bridge is modeled in SAP2000 and solved by time history direct-integration analyses under a set of six recorded near-fault ground motions. In addition to this, a set of analysis under Italian code provided seismic action is also conducted, in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the suggested optimal control strategies under far field seismic action. Results of the analysis demonstrated that an isolated bridge equipped with HDLRBs and a total equivalent damping ratio of 70% represents a very effective design solution for both mitigation of displacement demand at the isolation level and base shear reduction in the piers also in case of near fault ground motion.

Keywords: Isolated bridges, optimal design, near-fault motion, supplemental damping.

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42 Hierarchical Operation Strategies for Grid Connected Building Microgrid with Energy Storage and Photovoltatic Source

Authors: Seon-Ho Yoon, Jin-Young Choi, Dong-Jun Won

Abstract:

This paper presents hierarchical operation strategies which are minimizing operation error between day ahead operation plan and real time operation. Operating power systems between centralized and decentralized approaches can be represented as hierarchical control scheme, featured as primary control, secondary control and tertiary control. Primary control is known as local control, featuring fast response. Secondary control is referred to as microgrid Energy Management System (EMS). Tertiary control is responsible of coordinating the operations of multi-microgrids. In this paper, we formulated 3 stage microgrid operation strategies which are similar to hierarchical control scheme. First stage is to set a day ahead scheduled output power of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) which is only controllable source in microgrid and it is optimized to minimize cost of exchanged power with main grid using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. Second stage is to control the active and reactive power of BESS to be operated in day ahead scheduled plan in case that State of Charge (SOC) error occurs between real time and scheduled plan. The third is rescheduling the system when the predicted error is over the limited value. The first stage can be compared with the secondary control in that it adjusts the active power. The second stage is comparable to the primary control in that it controls the error in local manner. The third stage is compared with the secondary control in that it manages power balancing. The proposed strategies will be applied to one of the buildings in Electronics and Telecommunication Research Institute (ETRI). The building microgrid is composed of Photovoltaic (PV) generation, BESS and load and it will be interconnected with the main grid. Main purpose of that is minimizing operation cost and to be operated in scheduled plan. Simulation results support validation of proposed strategies.

Keywords: Battery energy storage system, energy management system, microgrid, particle swarm optimization.

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41 An Introduction to the Concept of Environmental Audit: Indian Context

Authors: Pradip Kumar Das

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Phenomenal growth of population and industry exploits the environment in varied ways. Consequently, the greenhouse effect and other allied problems are threatening mankind the world over. Protection and up gradation of environment have, therefore, become the prime necessity all of mankind for the sustainable development of environment. People in humbler walks of life including the corporate citizens have become aware of the impacts of environmental pollution. Governments of various nations have entered the picture with laws and regulations to correct and cure the effects of present and past violations of environmental practices and to obstruct future violations of good environmental disciplines. In this perspective, environmental audit directs verification and validation to ensure that the various environmental laws are complied with and adequate care has been taken towards environmental protection and preservation. The discipline of environmental audit has experienced expressive development throughout the world. It examines the positive and negative effects of the activities of an enterprise on environment and provides an in-depth study of the company processes any growth in realizing long-term strategic goals. Environmental audit helps corporations assess its achievement, correct deficiencies and reduce risk to the health and improving safety. Environmental audit being a strong management tool should be administered by industry for its own self-assessment. Developed countries all over the globe have gone ahead in environment quantification; but unfortunately, there is a lack of awareness about pollution and environmental hazards among the common people in India. In the light of this situation, the conceptual analysis of this study is concerned with the rationale of environmental audit on the industry and the society as a whole and highlights the emerging dimensions in the auditing theory and practices. A modest attempt has been made to throw light on the recent development in environmental audit in developing nations like India and the problems associated with the implementation of environmental audit. The conceptual study also reflects that despite different obstacles, environmental audit is becoming an increasing aspect within the corporate sectors in India and lastly, conclusions along with suggestions have been offered to improve the current scenario.

Keywords: Environmental audit, environmental hazards, environmental laws, environmental protection, environmental preservation.

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40 Bounded Rational Heterogeneous Agents in Artificial Stock Markets: Literature Review and Research Direction

Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

Abstract:

In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent’s attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: Artificial stock markets, agent based simulation, bounded rationality, behavioral finance, artificial neural network, interaction, scale-free networks.

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39 Fault-Tolerant Control Study and Classification: Case Study of a Hydraulic-Press Model Simulated in Real-Time

Authors: Jorge Rodriguez-Guerra, Carlos Calleja, Aron Pujana, Iker Elorza, Ana Maria Macarulla

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Society demands more reliable manufacturing processes capable of producing high quality products in shorter production cycles. New control algorithms have been studied to satisfy this paradigm, in which Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) plays a significant role. It is suitable to detect, isolate and adapt a system when a harmful or faulty situation appears. In this paper, a general overview about FTC characteristics are exposed; highlighting the properties a system must ensure to be considered faultless. In addition, a research to identify which are the main FTC techniques and a classification based on their characteristics is presented in two main groups: Active Fault-Tolerant Controllers (AFTCs) and Passive Fault-Tolerant Controllers (PFTCs). AFTC encompasses the techniques capable of re-configuring the process control algorithm after the fault has been detected, while PFTC comprehends the algorithms robust enough to bypass the fault without further modifications. The mentioned re-configuration requires two stages, one focused on detection, isolation and identification of the fault source and the other one in charge of re-designing the control algorithm by two approaches: fault accommodation and control re-design. From the algorithms studied, one has been selected and applied to a case study based on an industrial hydraulic-press. The developed model has been embedded under a real-time validation platform, which allows testing the FTC algorithms and analyse how the system will respond when a fault arises in similar conditions as a machine will have on factory. One AFTC approach has been picked up as the methodology the system will follow in the fault recovery process. In a first instance, the fault will be detected, isolated and identified by means of a neural network. In a second instance, the control algorithm will be re-configured to overcome the fault and continue working without human interaction.

Keywords: Fault-tolerant control, electro-hydraulic actuator, fault detection and isolation, control re-design, real-time.

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38 Simulation of Soil-Pile Interaction of Steel Batter Piles Penetrated in Sandy Soil Subjected to Pull-Out Loads

Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill

Abstract:

Superstructures like offshore platforms, tall buildings, transition towers, skyscrapers and bridges are normally designed to resist compression, uplift and lateral forces from wind waves, negative skin friction, ship impact and other applied loads. Better understanding and the precise simulation of the response of batter piles under the action of independent uplift loads is a vital topic and an area of active research in the field of geotechnical engineering. This paper investigates the use of finite element code (FEC) to examine the behaviour of model batter piles penetrated in dense sand, subjected to pull-out pressure by means of numerical modelling. The concept of the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation) has been used in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and adjacent soil in the bearing zone is simulated by nonlinear p-y curves. The analysis was conducted on different pile slenderness ratios (lc⁄d) ranging from 7.5, 15.22 and 30 respectively. In addition, the optimum batter angle for a model steel pile penetrated in dense sand has been chosen to be 20° as this is the best angle for this simulation as demonstrated by other researcher published in literature. In this numerical analysis, the soil response is idealized as elasto-plastic and the model piles are described as elastic materials for the purpose of simulation. The results revealed that the applied loads affect the pullout pile capacity as well as the lateral pile response for dense sand together with varying shear strength parameters linked to the pile critical depth. Furthermore, the pile pull-out capacity increases with increasing the pile aspect ratios.

Keywords: Slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), pull-out capacity.

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37 Political Economy of Integrated Soil Fertility Management in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Authors: Oluwatoyin D. Kolawole, Oarabile Mogobe, Lapologang Magole

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Although many factors play a significant role in agricultural production and productivity, the importance of soil fertility cannot be underestimated. The extent to which small farmers are able to manage the fertility of their farmlands is crucial in agricultural development particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).  This paper assesses the nutrient status of selected farmers’ fields in relation to how government policy addresses the allocation of and access to agricultural inputs (e.g. chemical fertilizers) in a unique social-ecological environment of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. It also analyses small farmers and soil scientists’ perceptions about the political economy of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) in the area. A multi-stage sampling procedure was used to elicit quantitative and qualitative information from 228 farmers and 9 soil researchers through the use of interview schedules and questionnaires, respectively. Knowledge validation workshops and focus group discussions (FGDs) were also used to collect qualitative data from farmers. Thirty-three composite soil samples were collected from 30 farmers’ plots in three farming communities of Makalamabedi, Nokaneng and Mohembo for laboratory analysis. While meeting points exist, farmers and scientists have divergent perspectives on soil fertility management. Laboratory analysis carried out shows that most soils in the wetland and the adjoining dry-land/upland surroundings are low in essential nutrients as well as in cation exchange capacity (CEC). Although results suggest the identification and use of appropriate inorganic fertilizers, the low CEC is an indication that holistic cultural practices, which are beyond mere chemical fertilizations, are critical and more desirable for improved soil health and sustainable livelihoods in the area. Farmers’ age (t= -0.728; p≤0.10); their perceptions about the political economy (t = -0.485; p≤0.01) of ISFM; and their preference for the use of local knowledge in soil fertility management (t = -10.254; p≤0.01) had a significant relationship with how they perceived their involvement in the implementation of ISFM.

Keywords: Access, Botswana, ecology, inputs, Okavango Delta, policy, scientists, small farmers, soil fertility.

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36 Development of a Tilt-Rotor Aircraft Model Using System Identification Technique

Authors: Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello, Ferdinando Montemari

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The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Flapping Dynamics, Flight Dynamics, System Identification, Tilt-Rotor Modeling and Simulation.

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35 Development and Validation of Cylindrical Linear Oscillating Generator

Authors: Sungin Jeong

Abstract:

This paper presents a linear oscillating generator of cylindrical type for hybrid electric vehicle application. The focus of the study is the suggestion of the optimal model and the design rule of the cylindrical linear oscillating generator with permanent magnet in the back-iron translator. The cylindrical topology is achieved using equivalent magnetic circuit considering leakage elements as initial modeling. This topology with permanent magnet in the back-iron translator is described by number of phases and displacement of stroke. For more accurate analysis of an oscillating machine, it will be compared by moving just one-pole pitch forward and backward the thrust of single-phase system and three-phase system. Through the analysis and comparison, a single-phase system of cylindrical topology as the optimal topology is selected. Finally, the detailed design of the optimal topology takes the magnetic saturation effects into account by finite element analysis. Besides, the losses are examined to obtain more accurate results; copper loss in the conductors of machine windings, eddy-current loss of permanent magnet, and iron-loss of specific material of electrical steel. The considerations of thermal performances and mechanical robustness are essential, because they have an effect on the entire efficiency and the insulations of the machine due to the losses of the high temperature generated in each region of the generator. Besides electric machine with linear oscillating movement requires a support system that can resist dynamic forces and mechanical masses. As a result, the fatigue analysis of shaft is achieved by the kinetic equations. Also, the thermal characteristics are analyzed by the operating frequency in each region. The results of this study will give a very important design rule in the design of linear oscillating machines. It enables us to more accurate machine design and more accurate prediction of machine performances.

Keywords: Equivalent magnetic circuit, finite element analysis, hybrid electric vehicle, free piston engine, cylindrical linear oscillating generator

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34 Factors Militating the Organization of Intramural Sport Programs in Secondary Schools: A Case Study of the Ekiti West Local Government Area of Ekiti State, Nigeria

Authors: Adewole Taiwo Adelabu

Abstract:

The study investigated the factors militating the organization of intramural sports programs in secondary schools in Ekiti State, Nigeria. The purpose of the study was to identify the factors affecting the organization of sports in secondary schools and also to proffer possible solutions to these factors. The study employed the inferential statistics of chi-square (x2). Five research hypotheses were formulated. The population for the study was all the students in the government-owned secondary schools in Ekiti West Local Government of Ekiti State Nigeria. The sample for the study was 60 students in three schools within the local government selected through simple random sampling techniques. The instrument used for the study was a self-developed questionnaire by the researcher for data collection. The instrument was presented to experts and academicians in the field of Human Kinetics and Health Education for construct and content validation. A reliability test was conducted which involves 10 students who are not part of the study. The test-retest coefficient of 0.74 was obtained which attested to the fact that the instrument was reliable enough for the study. The validated questionnaire was administered to the students in their various schools by the researcher with the help of two research assistants; the questionnaires were filled and returned to the researcher immediately. The data collected were analyzed using the descriptive statistics of frequency count, percentage and mean to analyze demographic data in section A of the questionnaire, while inferential statistics of chi-square was used to test the hypotheses at 0.05 alpha level. The results of the study revealed that personnel, fund, schedule (time) were significant factors that affect the organization of intramural sport programs among students in secondary schools in Ekiti West Local Government Area of the State. The study also revealed that organization of intramural sports programs among students of secondary schools will improve and motivate students’ participation in sports beyond the local level. However, facilities and equipment is not a significant factor affecting the organization of intramural sports among secondary school students in Ekiti West Local Government Area.

Keywords: Challenge, militating, intramural sport, programs.

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33 Performance Based Seismic Retrofit of Masonry Infilled Reinforced Concrete Frames Using Passive Energy Dissipation Devices

Authors: Alok Madan, Arshad K. Hashmi

Abstract:

The paper presents a plastic analysis procedure based on the energy balance concept for performance based seismic retrofit of multi-story multi-bay masonry infilled reinforced concrete (R/C) frames with a ‘soft’ ground story using passive energy dissipation (PED) devices with the objective of achieving a target performance level of the retrofitted R/C frame for a given seismic hazard level at the building site. The proposed energy based plastic analysis procedure was employed for developing performance based design (PBD) formulations for PED devices for a simulated application in seismic retrofit of existing frame structures designed in compliance with the prevalent standard codes of practice. The PBD formulations developed for PED devices were implemented for simulated seismic retrofit of a representative code-compliant masonry infilled R/C frame with a ‘soft’ ground story using friction dampers as the PED device. Non-linear dynamic analyses of the retrofitted masonry infilled R/C frames is performed to investigate the efficacy and accuracy of the proposed energy based plastic analysis procedure in achieving the target performance level under design level earthquakes. Results of non-linear dynamic analyses demonstrate that the maximum inter-story drifts in the masonry infilled R/C frames with a ‘soft’ ground story that is retrofitted with the friction dampers designed using the proposed PBD formulations are controlled within the target drifts under near-field as well far-field earthquakes.

Keywords: Energy Methods, Masonry Infilled Frame, Near-field Earthquakes, Seismic Protection, Supplemental damping devices.

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32 Application of Transportation Models for Analysing Future Intercity and Intracity Travel Patterns in Kuwait

Authors: Srikanth Pandurangi, Basheer Mohammed, Nezar Al Sayegh

Abstract:

In order to meet the increasing demand for housing care for Kuwaiti citizens, the government authorities in Kuwait are undertaking a series of projects in the form of new large cities, outside the current urban area. Al Mutlaa City located to the north-west of the Kuwait Metropolitan Area is one such project out of the 15 planned new cities. The city accommodates a wide variety of residential developments, employment opportunities, commercial, recreational, health care and institutional uses. This paper examines the application of comprehensive transportation demand modeling works undertaken in VISUM platform to understand the future intracity and intercity travel distribution patterns in Kuwait. The scope of models developed varied in levels of detail: strategic model update, sub-area models representing future demand of Al Mutlaa City, sub-area models built to estimate the demand in the residential neighborhoods of the city. This paper aims at offering model update framework that facilitates easy integration between sub-area models and strategic national models for unified traffic forecasts. This paper presents the transportation demand modeling results utilized in informing the planning of multi-modal transportation system for Al Mutlaa City. This paper also presents the household survey data collection efforts undertaken using GPS devices (first time in Kuwait) and notebook computer based digital survey forms for interviewing representative sample of citizens and residents. The survey results formed the basis of estimating trip generation rates and trip distribution coefficients used in the strategic base year model calibration and validation process.

Keywords: GPS based household surveys, transportation infrastructure, origin-destination trip matrices, traffic forecasts, transportation demand modeling, travel behavior patterns.

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31 Influential Parameters in Estimating Soil Properties from Cone Penetrating Test: An Artificial Neural Network Study

Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

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The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: Angle of internal friction, Cone penetrating test, General regression neural network, Soil modulus of elasticity.

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30 64 bit Computer Architectures for Space Applications – A study

Authors: Niveditha Domse, Kris Kumar, K. N. Balasubramanya Murthy

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The more recent satellite projects/programs makes extensive usage of real – time embedded systems. 16 bit processors which meet the Mil-Std-1750 standard architecture have been used in on-board systems. Most of the Space Applications have been written in ADA. From a futuristic point of view, 32 bit/ 64 bit processors are needed in the area of spacecraft computing and therefore an effort is desirable in the study and survey of 64 bit architectures for space applications. This will also result in significant technology development in terms of VLSI and software tools for ADA (as the legacy code is in ADA). There are several basic requirements for a special processor for this purpose. They include Radiation Hardened (RadHard) devices, very low power dissipation, compatibility with existing operational systems, scalable architectures for higher computational needs, reliability, higher memory and I/O bandwidth, predictability, realtime operating system and manufacturability of such processors. Further on, these may include selection of FPGA devices, selection of EDA tool chains, design flow, partitioning of the design, pin count, performance evaluation, timing analysis etc. This project deals with a brief study of 32 and 64 bit processors readily available in the market and designing/ fabricating a 64 bit RISC processor named RISC MicroProcessor with added functionalities of an extended double precision floating point unit and a 32 bit signal processing unit acting as co-processors. In this paper, we emphasize the ease and importance of using Open Core (OpenSparc T1 Verilog RTL) and Open “Source" EDA tools such as Icarus to develop FPGA based prototypes quickly. Commercial tools such as Xilinx ISE for Synthesis are also used when appropriate.

Keywords: RISC MicroProcessor, RPC – RISC Processor Core, PBX – Processor to Block Interface part of the Interconnection Network, BPX – Block to Processor Interface part of the Interconnection Network, FPU – Floating Point Unit, SPU – Signal Processing Unit, WB – Wishbone Interface, CTU – Clock and Test Unit

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29 Development of an Automatic Calibration Framework for Hydrologic Modelling Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: Automatic calibration framework, approximate Bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform.

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28 Machine Learning Techniques for Short-Term Rain Forecasting System in the Northeastern Part of Thailand

Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

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This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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