Nuclear Fuel Safety Threshold Determined by Logistic Regression Plus Uncertainty

Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

Abstract:

Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: Logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1129668

References:

[1] M. Vickerd, "Dealing with Historical Discrepancies: The Recovery of National Research Experiment (NRX) Reactor Fuel Rods at Chalk River Laboratories (CRL)-13324." (1953): 1-13.
[2] G. Steinhauser, A. Brandl, T.E. Johnson "Comparison of the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: A review of the environmental impacts." Science of the Total Environment 470 (2014): 800-817.
[3] K.A. Terrani, S.J. Zinkle, L.L. Snead, Advanced oxidation-resistant iron-based alloys for LWR fuel cladding. J. Nucl. Mater. 448, (2014): 420-435.
[4] C.P. Deck, GM Jacobsen, J. Sheeder, O. Gutierrez, J. Zhang, J. Stone, H.E. Khalifa, C.A. Back. "Characterization of SiC–SiC composites for accident tolerant fuel cladding." Journal of Nuclear Materials 466 (2015): 667-681.
[5] F. D'auria, A. Petruzzi, N. Muellner, O. Mazzantani, "The BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) Challenge in Current Licensing of Nuclear Reactors." ASME 2011 Pressure Vessel and Piping Conference, PVP2011-57794, Baltimore (Md, US). (2011).
[6] A. Petruzzi, F. D'Auria, J. Micaelli, A. De Crecy, J. Royen "The BEMUSE programme (best-estimate methods-uncertainty and sensitivity evaluation)." (2004).
[7] A. Kovtonyuk, A. Petruzzi, F. Auria. Post-BEMUSE Reflood Model Input Uncertainty Methods (PREMIUM) Benchmark Phase II: Identification of Influential Parameters. No. NEA-CSNI-R--2014-14. Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development, 2015.
[8] C. Vitanza, RIA failure threshold and LOCA limit at high burnup. J. Nucl. Sci. Technol. 43, (2006) 1074-1079.G.
[9] C. Nam, Y.H. Jeong, Y.H. Jung, A statistical approach to predict the failure enthalpy and reliability of irradiated PWR fuel rods during reactivity-initiated accidents. Nucl. Technol. 136,(2001) 158-168.
[10] D. Imholte, A. Fatih. "Comparison of nuclear pulse reactor facilities with reactivity-initiated-accident testing capability." Progress in Nuclear Energy 91 (2016): 310-324.
[11] V. Bessiron, "Modelling of clad-to-coolant heat transfer for RIA applications." Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology 44.2 (2007): 211-221.D.
[12] B. Cazalis, J. Desquines, S. Carassou, T. Le Jolu, C. Bernaudat, "The plane strain tests in the PROMETRA program." Journal of Nuclear Materials 472 (2016): 127-142.
[13] L. Sagrado, E. Herranz. "Modeling RIA benchmark cases with FRAPTRAN and SCANAIR: A comparative exercise." Nuclear Engineering and Design 278 (2014): 150-162.
[14] A.H. deMenibus, J. Sercombe, Q. Auzoux, C. Poussard, Thermomechanical loading applied on the cladding tube during the pellet-cladding mechanical interaction phase of a rapid reactivity initiated accident. J. Nucl. Mater. 453, (2014) 210-213.
[15] P.E. MacDonald, S.L. Seiffert, Z.R. Martinson, R.K. McCardell, D.E. Owen, S.K. Fukuda, Assessment of light-water-reactor fuel damage during a reactivity-initiated accident. Nucl. Safety 21, (1980): 582-602.
[16] T. Fuketa, H. Sasajima, T. Sugiyama, Behavior of high-burnup PWR fuels with low-tin Zircaloy-4 cladding under reactivity-initiated-accident conditions. Nucl. Technol., 133, (2001) 50-62.
[17] B.Q. Leyva, "Numerical solution of the integro-differential equation of the point kinetics of nuclear reactors as an ODE." Annals of Nuclear Energy 78 (2015): 160-165.
[18] A.E. Aboander, Y.M. Hamada, "Power series solution (PWS) of nuclear reactor dynamics with Newtonian temperature feedback." Annals of Nuclear Energy 30.10 (2003): 1111-1122.
[19] G. Hampel, K. Eberhardt. "Utilization of the research reactor TRIGA Mainz." IAEA Technical Meeting on Commercial Products and Services of Research Reactors, Vienna, 2010.
[20] P.E. MacDonald, S.L. Seiffert, Z.R. Martinson, R.K. McCardell, D.E. Owen, S.K. Fukuda "Assessment of light-water-reactor fuel damage during a reactivity-initiated accident." Nucl. Safety 21.5 (1980): 582-602.
[21] L.O. Jernkvist, A.R. Massih, Nuclear fuel behaviour under reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) condition: State-of-the-art report. NEA OECD, NEA N° 6847, (2010) 1-208.
[22] Z. Hózer, L. Maróti, Review of RIA safety criteria for VVER fuel. Unclassified NEA/CSNI/R (2003) 8/VOL1, 21 (2003).
[23] J.Y.R. Rashid, R.O. Montgomery, W.F. Lyon, R. Yang, A cladding failure model for fuel rods subjected to operational and accident transients. In: Proc. IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Nuclear Fuel Behavior Modeling at High Burnup and its Experimental Support 451, (2001): 187-199.
[24] F.E. Harrell, Regression Modeling Strategies: With Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression, and Survival Analysis. Springer Science & Business Media, Berlin.(2013).
[25] D.W. Hosmer Jr, S. Lemeshow, Applied Logistic Regression. John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey (2004).
[26] P.M. Clifford, The US nuclear regulatory commission's strategy for revising the ria acceptance criteria. American Nuclear Society, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526, United States,(2007) 543-545.
[27] R. Montgomery, R. Yang, Topical report on reactivity-initiated accident: Bases for RIA fuel and core coolability criteria. EPRI topical report,(2002):1002865.
[28] P.M. Clifford, Technical and regulatory basis for the reactivity-initiated accident acceptance criteria and guidance, revision 1. American Nuclear Society, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (United States) (2015).
[29] K.J. Geelhood, W.G. Luscher, C.E. Beyer,"FRAPCON-4.0: Integral assessment. Technical Report NUREG-CR-7022, vol.1-2." Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (2014).
[30] K.J. Geelhood, W.G. Luscher, C.E. Beyer, J.M. Cuta, “FRAPTRAN 1.5: A computer code for the transient analysis of oxide fuel rods,” US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, NUREG/CR-7023, vol 1 and vol 2, 148 (2014).