Search results for: time series modeling.

Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah

Abstract:

A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and distribution of worm gear drives, and to calculate the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness. In the approach, the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well-established formulae of spur gear loading and stresses. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. Based on the slicing method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share are obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: Gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line.

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Authors: Nitish Kumar Vaja, Oumar Barry, Brian DeJong

Abstract:

Aeolian vibrations are the major cause for the failure of conductor cables. Using a Stockbridge damper reduces these vibrations and increases the life span of the conductor cable. Designing an efficient Stockbridge damper that suits the conductor cable requires a robust mathematical model with minimum assumptions. However it is not easy to analytically model the complex geometry of the messenger. Therefore an equivalent stiffness must be determined so that it can be used in the analytical model. This paper examines the bending stiffness of the cable and discusses the effect of this stiffness on the natural frequencies. The obtained equivalent stiffness compensates for the assumption of modeling the messenger as a rod. The results from the free vibration analysis of the analytical model with the equivalent stiffness is validated using the full scale finite element model of the Stockbridge damper.

Keywords: Equivalent stiffness, finite element model, free vibration response, Stockbridge damper.

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Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

Abstract:

A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement, environmental sustainability.

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Authors: M. Capocelli, A. Caputo, M. De Falco, D. Mazzei, V. Piemonte

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental results and the related modeling of a thermal energy storage (TES) facility, ideated and realized by ENEA and realizing the thermocline with an innovative geometry. Firstly, the thermal energy exchange model of an equivalent shell & tube heat exchanger is described and tested to reproduce the performance of the spiral exchanger installed in the TES. Through the regression of the experimental data, a first-order thermocline model was also validated to provide an analytical function of the thermocline, useful for the performance evaluation and the comparison with other systems and implementation in simulations of integrated systems (e.g. power plants). The experimental data obtained from the plant start-up and the short-cut modeling of the system can be useful for the process analysis, for the scale-up of the thermal storage system and to investigate the feasibility of its implementation in actual case-studies.

Keywords: Thermocline, modelling, heat exchange, spiral, shell, tube.

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Authors: Munther I. Kandah, Fahmi A. Abu Al-Rub, Lucy Bawarish, Mira Bawarish, Hiba Al-Tamimi, Reem Khalil, Raja'a Sa, ada

Abstract:

In this project cadmium ions were adsorbed from aqueous solutions onto either date pits; a cheap agricultural and nontoxic material, or chemically activated carbon prepared from date pits using phosphoric acid. A series of experiments were conducted in a batch adsorption technique to assess the feasibility of using the prepared adsorbents. The effects of the process variables such as initial cadmium ions concentration, contact time, solution pH and adsorbent dose on the adsorption capacity of both adsorbents were studied. The experimental data were tested using different isotherm models such as Langmuir, Freundlich, Tempkin and Dubinin- Radushkevich. The results showed that although the equilibrium data could be described by all models used, Langmuir model gave slightly better results when using activated carbon while Freundlich model, gave better results with date pits.

Keywords: Adsorption, Cadmium, Chemical Activation, DatePits.

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Authors: S. Jain, Y. Deshpande

Abstract:

The fluid mechanics principle is used extensively in designing axial flow fans and their associated equipment. This paper presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of air flow distribution from a radiator axial flow fan used in an acid pump truck Tier4 (APT T4) Repower. This axial flow fan augments the transfer of heat from the engine mounted on the APT T4. CFD analysis was performed for an area weighted average static pressure difference at the inlet and outlet of the fan. Pressure contours, velocity vectors, and path lines were plotted for detailing the flow characteristics for different orientations of the fan blade. The results were then compared and verified against known theoretical observations and actual experimental data. This study shows that a CFD simulation can be very useful for predicting and understanding the flow distribution from a radiator fan for further research work.

Keywords: Computational fluid dynamics (CFD), acid pump truck (APT) Tier4 Repower, axial flow fan, area weighted average static pressure difference, and contour plots.

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Authors: Abdu Masanawa Sagir

Abstract:

In this paper, linear multistep technique using power series as the basis function is used to develop the block methods which are suitable for generating direct solution of the special second order ordinary differential equations of the form y′′ = f(x,y), a < = x < = b with associated initial or boundary conditions. The continuaous hybrid formulations enable us to differentiate and evaluate at some grids and off – grid points to obtain two different three discrete schemes, each of order (4,4,4)T, which were used in block form for parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. The computational burden and computer time wastage involved in the usual reduction of second order problem into system of first order equations are avoided by this approach. Furthermore, a stability analysis and efficiency of the block method are tested on linear and non-linear ordinary differential equations whose solutions are oscillatory or nearly periodic in nature, and the results obtained compared favourably with the exact solution.

Keywords: Block Method, Hybrid, Linear Multistep Method, Self – starting, Special Second Order.

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Authors: Ankit Agrawal, Ankush Mittal

Abstract:

A gene network gives the knowledge of the regulatory relationships among the genes. Each gene has its activators and inhibitors that regulate its expression positively and negatively respectively. Genes themselves are believed to act as activators and inhibitors of other genes. They can even activate one set of genes and inhibit another set. Identifying gene networks is one of the most crucial and challenging problems in Bioinformatics. Most work done so far either assumes that there is no time delay in gene regulation or there is a constant time delay. We here propose a Dynamic Time- Lagged Correlation Based Method (DTCBM) to learn the gene networks, which uses time-lagged correlation to find the potential gene interactions, and then uses a post-processing stage to remove false gene interactions to common parents, and finally uses dynamic correlation thresholds for each gene to construct the gene network. DTCBM finds correlation between gene expression signals shifted in time, and therefore takes into consideration the multi time delay relationships among the genes. The implementation of our method is done in MATLAB and experimental results on Saccharomyces cerevisiae gene expression data and comparison with other methods indicate that it has a better performance.

Keywords: Activators, correlation, dynamic time-lagged correlation based method, inhibitors, multi-time delay gene network.

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Authors: Neeraj Mohan, Parvinder S. Sandhu, Hardeep Singh

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Software maintenance is extremely important activity in software development life cycle. It involves a lot of human efforts, cost and time. Software maintenance may be further subdivided into different activities such as fault prediction, fault detection, fault prevention, fault correction etc. This topic has gained substantial attention due to sophisticated and complex applications, commercial hardware, clustered architecture and artificial intelligence. In this paper we surveyed the work done in the field of software maintenance. Software fault prediction has been studied in context of fault prone modules, self healing systems, developer information, maintenance models etc. Still a lot of things like modeling and weightage of impact of different kind of faults in the various types of software systems need to be explored in the field of fault severity.

Keywords: Fault prediction, Software Maintenance, Automated Fault Prediction, and Failure Mode Analysis

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Authors: Airoldi G., Bumby J. R., Dominy C., G.L. Ingram, Lim C. H., Mahkamov K., N. L. Brown, A. Mebarki, M. Shanel

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Axial Flux Permanent Magnet (AFPM) Machines require effective cooling due to their high power density. The detrimental effects of overheating such as degradation of the insulation materials, magnets demagnetization, and increase of Joule losses are well known. This paper describes the CFD simulations performed on a test rig model of an air cooled Axial Flux Permanent Magnet (AFPM) generator built at Durham University to identify the temperatures and heat transfer coefficient on the stator. The Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes and the Energy equations are solved and the flow pattern and heat transfer developing inside the machine are described. The Nusselt number on the stator surfaces has been found. The dependency of the heat transfer on the flow field is described temperature field obtained. Tests on an experimental are undergoing in order to validate the CFD results.

Keywords: Axial flux permanent magnet machines, thermal modeling, CFD.

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Authors: G. F. Guimarães, A. R. de Faria, R. R. Rego, A. L. R. D’Oliveira

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One of the most relevant phenomena in manufacturing is the residual stress state development through the manufacturing chain. In most cases, the residual stresses have their origin in the heterogenous plastification produced by the processes. Although a few manufacturing processes have been successfully approached by numerical modeling, there is still lack of understanding on how these processes' interactions will affect the final stress state. The objective of this work is to analyze the effect of the grinding procedure on the residual stress state generated by a quasi-static indentation. The model consists in a simplified approach of shot peening, modeling four cases with variations in indenter size and force. This model was validated through topography, measured by optical 3D focus-variation. The indentation model configured with two loads was then exposed to two grinding procedures and the result was analyzed. It was observed that the grinding procedure will have a significant effect on the stress state.

Keywords: plasticity, residual stress, finite element method, manufacturing

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Authors: N. Zaki Alamdari, M. Banihashemi, A. Mirghasemi

Abstract:

To estimate the risks of dam failure phenomenon, it is necessary to understand this phenomenon and the involved governing factors. Overtopping and piping are the two main reasons of earthdam failures. In the piping context, the piping is determined as a phenomenon which is occurred between two phases, the water liquid and the solid soil. In this investigation, the onset of piping and its development, as well as the movement of water in soil, are numerically approached. In this regard, a one-dimensional numerical model based on the mass-conserving finite-volume method is developed and applied in order to simulate the piping phenomenon in a continuous circular tunnel of given initial length and radius, located between upstream and downstream. The simulation result includes the time-variations of radius along the tunnel until the radius value reaches its critical and the piping phenomenon converts to overtopping.

Keywords: Earth dam, dam break, piping, internal erosion

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Authors: Udaya Kumar Reddy K. R, K. Viswanathan Iyer

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Given a simple connected unweighted undirected graph G = (V (G), E(G)) with |V (G)| = n and |E(G)| = m, we present a new algorithm for the all-pairs shortest-path (APSP) problem. The running time of our algorithm is in O(n2 log n). This bound is an improvement over previous best known O(n2.376) time bound of Raimund Seidel (1995) for general graphs. The algorithm presented does not rely on fast matrix multiplication. Our algorithm with slight modifications, enables us to compute the APSP problem for unweighted directed graph in time O(n2 log n), improving a previous best known O(n2.575) time bound of Uri Zwick (2002).

Keywords: Distance in graphs, Dynamic programming, Graphalgorithms, Shortest paths.

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

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The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of a high performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice River catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: Flood prediction process, High performance computing, Online flood prediction system, Parallelization.

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Authors: A. Mojtaba Aghajani, B. Leila Shavakhi

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Energy intensity(energy consumption intensity) is a global index which computes the required energy for producing a specific value of goods and services in each country. It is computed in terms of initial energy supply or final energy consumption. In this study (research) Divisia method is used to decompose energy consumption and energy intensity. This method decomposes consumption and energy intensity to production effects, structural and net intensity and could be done as time series or two-periodical. This study analytically investigates consumption changes and energy intensity on economical sectors of Iran and more specific on road transportation(rail road and road).Our results show that the contribution of structural effect (change in economical activities combination) is very low and the effect of net energy consumption has the higher contribution in consumption changes and energy intensity. In other words, the high consumption of energy is due to Intensity of energy consumption and is not to structural effect of transportation sector.

Keywords: Divisia Method, Energy Intensity, Net IntensityEffect, Road Transportation , Structural Effect.

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Authors: Barıs Kocer, Ahmet Arslan

Abstract:

Travelling salesman problem (TSP) is a combinational optimization problem and solution approaches have been applied many real world problems. Pure TSP assumes the cities to visit are fixed in time and thus solutions are created to find shortest path according to these point. But some of the points are canceled to visit in time. If the problem is not time crucial it is not important to determine new routing plan but if the points are changing rapidly and time is necessary do decide a new route plan a new approach should be applied in such cases. We developed a route plan transfer method based on transfer learning and we achieved high performance against determining a new model from scratch in every change.

Keywords: genetic algorithms, transfer learning, travellingsalesman problem

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Authors: V. I. Thajudin Ahamed, P. Dhanasekaran, A. Naseem, N. G. Karthick, T. K. Abdul Jaleel, Paul K.Joseph

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It is established that the instantaneous heart rate (HR) of healthy humans keeps on changing. Analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has become a popular non invasive tool for assessing the activities of autonomic nervous system. Depressed HRV has been found in several disorders, like diabetes mellitus (DM) and coronary artery disease, characterised by autonomic nervous dysfunction. A new technique, which searches for pattern repeatability in a time series, is proposed specifically for the analysis of heart rate data. These set of indices, which are termed as pattern repeatability measure and pattern repeatability ratio are compared with approximate entropy and sample entropy. In our analysis, based on the method developed, it is observed that heart rate variability is significantly different for DM patients, particularly for patients with diabetic foot ulcer.

Keywords: Autonomic nervous system, diabetes mellitus, heart rate variability, pattern identification, sample entropy

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Authors: D. B. Gohil

Abstract:

Closed die forging is a very complex process, and measurement of actual forces for real material is difficult and time consuming. Hence, the modelling technique has taken the advantage of carrying out the experimentation with the proper model material which needs lesser forces and relatively low temperature. The results of experiments on the model material then may be correlated with the actual material by using the theory of similarity. There are several methods available to resolve the complexity involved in the closed die forging process. Finite Element Method (FEM) and Finite Difference Method (FDM) are relatively difficult as compared to the slab method. The slab method is very popular and very widely used by the people working on shop floor because it is relatively easy to apply and reasonably accurate for most of the common forging load requirement computations.

Keywords: Experimentation, forging, process modeling, strain distribution.

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Authors: Marios M. Hadjiandreou, Raul Conejeros, Ian Wilson

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This study presents a mathematical modeling approach to the planning of HIV therapies on an individual basis. The model replicates clinical data from typical-progressors to AIDS for all stages of the disease with good agreement. Clinical data from rapid-progressors and long-term non-progressors is also matched by estimation of immune system parameters only. The ability of the model to reproduce these phenomena validates the formulation, a fact which is exploited in the investigation of effective therapies. The therapy investigation suggests that, unlike continuous therapy, structured treatment interruptions (STIs) are able to control the increase in both the drug-sensitive and drug-resistant virus population and, hence, prevent the ultimate progression from HIV to AIDS. The optimization results further suggest that even patients characterised by the same progression type can respond very differently to the same treatment and that the latter should be designed on a case-by-case basis. Such a methodology is presented here.

Keywords: AIDS, chemotherapy, mathematical modeling, optimal control, progression.

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Authors: F. Tafnout, E. Belut, B. Oesterlé, J.R. Fontaine

Abstract:

As a part of the development of a numerical method of close capture exhausts systems for machining devices, a test rig recreating a situation similar to a grinding operation, but in a perfectly controlled environment, is used. The properties of the obtained spray of solid particles are initially characterized using particle tracking velocimetry (PTV), in order to obtain input and validation parameters for numerical simulations. The dispersion of a tracer gas (SF6) emitted simultaneously with the particle jet is then studied experimentally, as the dispersion of such a gas is representative of that of finer particles, whose aerodynamic response time is negligible. Finally, complete modeling of the test rig is achieved to allow comparison with experimental results and thus to progress towards validation of the models used to describe a twophase flow generated by machining operation.

Keywords: Pollutants, capture, tracer gas, SF6, PTV, numericalmodeling.

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Authors: Nan Li, Ying Wang

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Using entropy weight and TOPSIS method, a comprehensive evaluation is done on the development level of Chinese regional service industry in this paper. Firstly, based on existing research results, an evaluation index system is constructed from the scale of development, the industrial structure and the economic benefits. An evaluation model is then built up based on entropy weight and TOPSIS, and an empirical analysis is conducted on the development level of service industries in 31 Chinese provinces during 2006 and 2009 from the two dimensions or time series and cross section, which provides new idea for assessing regional service industry. Furthermore, the 31 provinces are classified into four categories based on the evaluation results, and deep analysis is carried out on the evaluation results.

Keywords: Chinese regional service industry, Development level, Entropy weight, TOPSIS Evaluation Method

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Authors: Carol B.Collins, M. H. N Tabrizi

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The purposes of this paper are to (1) promote excellence in computer science by suggesting a cohesive innovative approach to fill well documented deficiencies in current computer science education, (2) justify (using the authors- and others anecdotal evidence from both the classroom and the real world) why this approach holds great potential to successfully eliminate the deficiencies, (3) invite other professionals to join the authors in proof of concept research. The authors- experiences, though anecdotal, strongly suggest that a new approach involving visual modeling technologies should allow computer science programs to retain a greater percentage of prospective and declared majors as students become more engaged learners, more successful problem-solvers, and better prepared as programmers. In addition, the graduates of such computer science programs will make greater contributions to the profession as skilled problem-solvers. Instead of wearily rememorizing code as they move to the next course, students will have the problem-solving skills to think and work in more sophisticated and creative ways.

Keywords: Algorithms, CASE, Problem-solving, UML.

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Authors: Ivan C. Mustakerov, Daniela I. Borissova

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The paper proposes an approach to ranking a set of potential countries to invest taking into account the investor point of view about importance of different economic indicators. For the goal, a ranking algorithm that contributes to rational decision making is proposed. The described algorithm is based on combinatorial optimization modeling and repeated multi-criteria tasks solution. The final result is list of countries ranked in respect of investor preferences about importance of economic indicators for investment attractiveness. Different scenarios are simulated conforming to different investors preferences. A numerical example with real dataset of indicators is solved. The numerical testing shows the applicability of the described algorithm. The proposed approach can be used with any sets of indicators as ranking criteria reflecting different points of view of investors. 

Keywords: Combinatorial optimization modeling, economics investment attractiveness, economics ranking algorithm, multi-criteria problems.

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Authors: Ritu Ahlawat

Abstract:

Among all geo-hydrological relationships, rainfallrunoff relationship is of utmost importance in any hydrological investigation and water resource planning. Spatial variation, lag time involved in obtaining areal estimates for the basin as a whole can affect the parameterization in design stage as well as in planning stage. In conventional hydrological processing of data, spatial aspect is either ignored or interpolated at sub-basin level. Temporal variation when analysed for different stages can provide clues for its spatial effectiveness. The interplay of space-time variation at pixel level can provide better understanding of basin parameters. Sustenance of design structures for different return periods and their spatial auto-correlations should be studied at different geographical scales for better management and planning of water resources. In order to understand the relative effect of spatio-temporal variation in hydrological data network, a detailed geo-hydrological analysis of Betwa river catchment falling in Lower Yamuna Basin is presented in this paper. Moreover, the exact estimates about the availability of water in the Betwa river catchment, especially in the wake of recent Betwa-Ken linkage project, need thorough scientific investigation for better planning. Therefore, an attempt in this direction is made here to analyse the existing hydrological and meteorological data with the help of SPSS, GIS and MS-EXCEL software. A comparison of spatial and temporal correlations at subcatchment level in case of upper Betwa reaches has been made to demonstrate the representativeness of rain gauges. First, flows at different locations are used to derive correlation and regression coefficients. Then, long-term normal water yield estimates based on pixel-wise regression coefficients of rainfall-runoff relationship have been mapped. The areal values obtained from these maps can definitely improve upon estimates based on point-based extrapolations or areal interpolations.

Keywords: Catchment's runoff estimates, influence area regional regression coefficients, runoff yield series,

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Authors: Young S. Bang, Dong H. Yoon, Seung H. Yoo

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Emergency Core Coolant Bypass (ECC Bypass) has been regarded as an important phenomenon to peak cladding temperature of large-break loss-of-coolant-accidents (LBLOCA) in nuclear power plants (NPP). A modeling scheme to address the ECC Bypass phenomena and the calculation of LBLOCA using that scheme are discussed in the present paper. A hydraulic form loss coefficient (HFLC) from the reactor vessel downcomer to the broken cold leg is predicted by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code with a variation of the void fraction incoming from the downcomer. The maximum, mean, and minimum values of FLC are derived from the CFD results and are incorporated into the LBLOCA calculation using a system thermal-hydraulic code, MARS-KS. As a relevant parameter addressing the ECC Bypass phenomena, the FLC to the break and its range are proposed.

Keywords: CFD analysis, ECC Bypass, hydraulic form loss coefficient, system thermal-hydraulic code.

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Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

Abstract:

This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matérn, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matérn, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian Process Regression, Ensemble Kernels, Bayesian Optimization, Pharmaceutical Sales Analysis, Time Series Forecasting, Data Analysis.

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Authors: Raja Das, M. K. Pradhan

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparative study between two neural network models namely General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) are used to estimate radial overcut produced during Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM). Four input parameters have been employed: discharge current (Ip), pulse on time (Ton), Duty fraction (Tau) and discharge voltage (V). Recently, artificial intelligence techniques, as it is emerged as an effective tool that could be used to replace time consuming procedures in various scientific or engineering applications, explicitly in prediction and estimation of the complex and nonlinear process. The both networks are trained, and the prediction results are tested with the unseen validation set of the experiment and analysed. It is found that the performance of both the networks are found to be in good agreement with average percentage error less than 11% and the correlation coefficient obtained for the validation data set for GRNN and BPNN is more than 91%. However, it is much faster to train GRNN network than a BPNN and GRNN is often more accurate than BPNN. GRNN requires more memory space to store the model, GRNN features fast learning that does not require an iterative procedure, and highly parallel structure. GRNN networks are slower than multilayer perceptron networks at classifying new cases.

Keywords: Electrical-discharge machining, General Regression Neural Network, Back-propagation Neural Network, Radial Overcut.

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Zixin Liu

Abstract:

The problem of robust stability and robust stabilization for a class of discrete-time uncertain systems with time delay is investigated. Based on Tchebychev inequality, by constructing a new augmented Lyapunov function, some improved sufficient conditions ensuring exponential stability and stabilization are established. These conditions are expressed in the forms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), whose feasibility can be easily checked by using Matlab LMI Toolbox. Compared with some previous results derived in the literature, the new obtained criteria have less conservatism. Two numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the improvement and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Robust stabilization, robust stability, discrete-time system, time delay.

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Authors: A.K. Baliarsingh, S. Panda, A.K. Mohanty, C. Ardil

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This paper presents a systematic approach for designing Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) based supplementary damping controllers for damping low frequency oscillations in a single-machine infinite-bus power system. Detailed investigations have been carried out considering the four alternatives UPFC based damping controller namely modulating index of series inverter (mB), modulating index of shunt inverter (mE), phase angle of series inverter (δB ) and phase angle of the shunt inverter (δE ). The design problem of the proposed controllers is formulated as an optimization problem and Real- Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) is employed to optimize damping controller parameters. Simulation results are presented and compared with a conventional method of tuning the damping controller parameters to show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed design approach.

Keywords: Power System Oscillations, Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA), Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS), Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC), Damping Controller.

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