Search results for: Relevance Vector Regression.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1564

Search results for: Relevance Vector Regression.

664 Cost Sensitive Feature Selection in Decision-Theoretic Rough Set Models for Customer Churn Prediction: The Case of Telecommunication Sector Customers

Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

Abstract:

In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: Churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection.

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663 How Celebrities can be used in Advertising to the Best Advantage?

Authors: Laimona Sliburyte

Abstract:

The ever increasing product diversity and competition on the market of goods and services has dictated the pace of growth in the number of advertisements. Despite their admittedly diminished effectiveness over the recent years, advertisements remain the favored method of sales promotion. Consequently, the challenge for an advertiser is to explore every possible avenue of making an advertisement more noticeable, attractive and impellent for consumers. One way to achieve this is through invoking celebrity endorsements. On the one hand, the use of a celebrity to endorse a product involves substantial costs, however, on the other hand, it does not immediately guarantee the success of an advertisement. The question of how celebrities can be used in advertising to the best advantage is therefore of utmost importance. Celebrity endorsements have become commonplace: empirical evidence indicates that approximately 20 to 25 per cent of advertisements feature some famous person as a product endorser. The popularity of celebrity endorsements demonstrates the relevance of the topic, especially in the context of the current global economic downturn, when companies are forced to save in order to survive, yet simultaneously to heavily invest in advertising and sales promotion. The issue of the effective use of celebrity endorsements also figures prominently in the academic discourse. The study presented below is thus aimed at exploring what qualities (characteristics) of a celebrity endorser have an impact on the ffectiveness of the advertisement in which he/she appears and how.

Keywords: Advertising, celebrity, celebrity endorsements, effectiveness of celebrity.

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662 An Improved Algorithm for Calculation of the Third-order Orthogonal Tensor Product Expansion by Using Singular Value Decomposition

Authors: Chiharu Okuma, Naoki Yamamoto, Jun Murakami

Abstract:

As a method of expanding a higher-order tensor data to tensor products of vectors we have proposed the Third-order Orthogonal Tensor Product Expansion (3OTPE) that did similar expansion as Higher-Order Singular Value Decomposition (HOSVD). In this paper we provide a computation algorithm to improve our previous method, in which SVD is applied to the matrix that constituted by the contraction of original tensor data and one of the expansion vector obtained. The residual of the improved method is smaller than the previous method, truncating the expanding tensor products to the same number of terms. Moreover, the residual is smaller than HOSVD when applying to color image data. It is able to be confirmed that the computing time of improved method is the same as the previous method and considerably better than HOSVD.

Keywords: Singular value decomposition (SVD), higher-orderSVD (HOSVD), outer product expansion, power method.

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661 Model-Based Automotive Partitioning and Mapping for Embedded Multicore Systems

Authors: Robert H¨ottger, Lukas Krawczyk, Burkhard Igel

Abstract:

This paper introduces novel approaches to partitioning and mapping in terms of model-based embedded multicore system engineering and further discusses benefits, industrial relevance and features in common with existing approaches. In order to assess and evaluate results, both approaches have been applied to a real industrial application as well as to various prototypical demonstrative applications, that have been developed and implemented for different purposes. Evaluations show, that such applications improve significantly according to performance, energy efficiency, meeting timing constraints and covering maintaining issues by using the AMALTHEA platform and the implemented approaches. Furthermore, the model-based design provides an open, expandable, platform independent and scalable exchange format between OEMs, suppliers and developers on different levels. Our proposed mechanisms provide meaningful multicore system utilization since load balancing by means of partitioning and mapping is effectively performed with regard to the modeled systems including hardware, software, operating system, scheduling, constraints, configuration and more data.

Keywords: Partitioning, mapping, distributed systems, scheduling, embedded multicore systems, model-based, system analysis.

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660 Local Mesh Co-Occurrence Pattern for Content Based Image Retrieval

Authors: C. Yesubai Rubavathi, R. Ravi

Abstract:

This paper presents the local mesh co-occurrence patterns (LMCoP) using HSV color space for image retrieval system. HSV color space is used in this method to utilize color, intensity and brightness of images. Local mesh patterns are applied to define the local information of image and gray level co-occurrence is used to obtain the co-occurrence of LMeP pixels. Local mesh co-occurrence pattern extracts the local directional information from local mesh pattern and converts it into a well-mannered feature vector using gray level co-occurrence matrix. The proposed method is tested on three different databases called MIT VisTex, Corel, and STex. Also, this algorithm is compared with existing methods, and results in terms of precision and recall are shown in this paper.

Keywords: Content-based image retrieval system, HSV color space, gray level co-occurrence matrix, local mesh pattern.

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659 In vitro and in vivo Anticancer Activity of Nanosize Zinc Oxide Composites of Doxorubicin

Authors: E. R. Arakelova, S. G. Grigoryan, F. G. Arsenyan, N. S. Babayan, R. M. Grigoryan, N. K. Sarkisyan

Abstract:

The nanotechnology offers some exciting possibilities in cancer treatment, including the possibility of destroying tumors with minimal damage to healthy tissue and organs by targeted drug delivery systems. Considerable achievements in investigations aimed at the use of ZnO nanoparticles and nanocontainers in diagnostics and antitumor therapy were described. However, there are substantial obstacles to the purposes to be achieved by the use of zinc oxide nanosize materials in antitumor therapy. Among the serious problems are the techniques of obtaining ZnO nanosize materials. The article presents a new vector delivery system for the known antitumor drug, doxorubicin in the form of polymeric (PEO, starch-NaCMC) hydrogels, in which nanosize ZnO film of a certain thickness are deposited directly on the drug surface on glass substrate by DC-magnetron sputtering of a zinc target. Anticancer activity in vitro and in vivo of those nanosize zinc oxide composites is shown.

Keywords: Anticancer activity, cancer specificity, doxorubicin, zinc oxide.

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658 Unsupervised Outlier Detection in Streaming Data Using Weighted Clustering

Authors: Yogita, Durga Toshniwal

Abstract:

Outlier detection in streaming data is very challenging because streaming data cannot be scanned multiple times and also new concepts may keep evolving. Irrelevant attributes can be termed as noisy attributes and such attributes further magnify the challenge of working with data streams. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised outlier detection scheme for streaming data. This scheme is based on clustering as clustering is an unsupervised data mining task and it does not require labeled data, both density based and partitioning clustering are combined for outlier detection. In this scheme partitioning clustering is also used to assign weights to attributes depending upon their respective relevance and weights are adaptive. Weighted attributes are helpful to reduce or remove the effect of noisy attributes. Keeping in view the challenges of streaming data, the proposed scheme is incremental and adaptive to concept evolution. Experimental results on synthetic and real world data sets show that our proposed approach outperforms other existing approach (CORM) in terms of outlier detection rate, false alarm rate, and increasing percentages of outliers.

Keywords: Concept Evolution, Irrelevant Attributes, Streaming Data, Unsupervised Outlier Detection.

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657 A Study on Finding Similar Document with Multiple Categories

Authors: R. Saraçoğlu, N. Allahverdi

Abstract:

Searching similar documents and document management subjects have important place in text mining. One of the most important parts of similar document research studies is the process of classifying or clustering the documents. In this study, a similar document search approach that includes discussion of out the case of belonging to multiple categories (multiple categories problem) has been carried. The proposed method that based on Fuzzy Similarity Classification (FSC) has been compared with Rocchio algorithm and naive Bayes method which are widely used in text mining. Empirical results show that the proposed method is quite successful and can be applied effectively. For the second stage, multiple categories vector method based on information of categories regarding to frequency of being seen together has been used. Empirical results show that achievement is increased almost two times, when proposed method is compared with classical approach.

Keywords: Document similarity, Fuzzy classification, Multiple categories, Text mining.

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656 Comparative Study on Swarm Intelligence Techniques for Biclustering of Microarray Gene Expression Data

Authors: R. Balamurugan, A. M. Natarajan, K. Premalatha

Abstract:

Microarray gene expression data play a vital in biological processes, gene regulation and disease mechanism. Biclustering in gene expression data is a subset of the genes indicating consistent patterns under the subset of the conditions. Finding a biclustering is an optimization problem. In recent years, swarm intelligence techniques are popular due to the fact that many real-world problems are increasingly large, complex and dynamic. By reasons of the size and complexity of the problems, it is necessary to find an optimization technique whose efficiency is measured by finding the near optimal solution within a reasonable amount of time. In this paper, the algorithmic concepts of the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Shuffled Frog Leaping (SFL) and Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithms have been analyzed for the four benchmark gene expression dataset. The experiment results show that CS outperforms PSO and SFL for 3 datasets and SFL give better performance in one dataset. Also this work determines the biological relevance of the biclusters with Gene Ontology in terms of function, process and component.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, Shuffled frog leaping, Cuckoo search, biclustering, gene expression data.

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655 Flocking Behaviors for Multiple Groups with Heterogeneous Agents

Authors: Jae Moon Lee

Abstract:

Most of researches for conventional simulations were studied focusing on flocks with a single species. While there exist the flocking behaviors with a single species in nature, the flocking behaviors are frequently observed with multi-species. This paper studies on the flocking simulation for heterogeneous agents. In order to simulate the flocks for heterogeneous agents, the conventional method uses the identifier of flock, while the proposed method defines the feature vector of agent and uses the similarity between agents by comparing with those feature vectors. Based on the similarity, the paper proposed the attractive force and repulsive force and then executed the simulation by applying two forces. The results of simulation showed that flock formation with heterogeneous agents is very natural in both cases. In addition, it showed that unlike the existing method, the proposed method can not only control the density of the flocks, but also be possible for two different groups of agents to flock close to each other if they have a high similarity.

Keywords: Flocking behavior, heterogeneous agents, similarity, simulation

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654 Transmission Performance of Millimeter Wave Multiband OFDM UWB Wireless Signal over Fiber System

Authors: M. Mohamed, X. Zhang, K. Wu, M. Elfituri, A. Legnain

Abstract:

Performance of millimeter-wave (mm-wave) multiband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MB-OFDM) ultrawideband (UWB) signal generation using frequency quadrupling technique and transmission over fiber is experimentally investigated. The frequency quadrupling is achived by using only one Mach- Zehnder modulator (MZM) that is biased at maximum transmission (MATB) point. At the output, a frequency quadrupling signal is obtained then sent to a second MZM. This MZM is used for MBOFDM UWB signal modulation. In this work, we demonstrate 30- GHz mm-wave wireless that carries three-bands OFDM UWB signals, and error vector magnitude (EVM) is used to analyze the transmission quality. It is found that our proposed technique leads to an improvement of 3.5 dB in EVM at 40% of local oscillator (LO) modulation with comparison to the technique using two cascaded MZMs biased at minimum transmission (MITB) point.

Keywords: Optical communication, Frequency up-conversion, Mach-Zehnder modulator, millimeter wave generation, radio over fiber

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653 Automatic Classification of the Stand-to-Sit Phase in the TUG Test Using Machine Learning

Authors: Y. A. Adla, R. Soubra, M. Kasab, M. O. Diab, A. Chkeir

Abstract:

Over the past several years, researchers have shown a great interest in assessing the mobility of elderly people to measure their functional status. Usually, such an assessment is done by conducting tests that require the subject to walk a certain distance, turn around, and finally sit back down. Consequently, this study aims to provide an at home monitoring system to assess the patient’s status continuously. Thus, we proposed a technique to automatically detect when a subject sits down while walking at home. In this study, we utilized a Doppler radar system to capture the motion of the subjects. More than 20 features were extracted from the radar signals out of which 11 were chosen based on their Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC > 0.75). Accordingly, the sequential floating forward selection wrapper was applied to further narrow down the final feature vector. Finally, five features were introduced to the Linear Discriminant Analysis classifier and an accuracy of 93.75% was achieved as well as a precision and recall of 95% and 90% respectively.

Keywords: Doppler radar system, stand-to-sit phase, TUG test, machine learning, classification

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652 Analysis of Feature Space for a 2d/3d Vision based Emotion Recognition Method

Authors: Robert Niese, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Bernd Michaelis

Abstract:

In modern human computer interaction systems (HCI), emotion recognition is becoming an imperative characteristic. The quest for effective and reliable emotion recognition in HCI has resulted in a need for better face detection, feature extraction and classification. In this paper we present results of feature space analysis after briefly explaining our fully automatic vision based emotion recognition method. We demonstrate the compactness of the feature space and show how the 2d/3d based method achieves superior features for the purpose of emotion classification. Also it is exposed that through feature normalization a widely person independent feature space is created. As a consequence, the classifier architecture has only a minor influence on the classification result. This is particularly elucidated with the help of confusion matrices. For this purpose advanced classification algorithms, such as Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Networks are employed, as well as the simple k- Nearest Neighbor classifier.

Keywords: Facial expression analysis, Feature extraction, Image processing, Pattern Recognition, Application.

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651 Several Aspects of the Conceptual Framework of Financial Reporting

Authors: Nadezhda Kvatashidze

Abstract:

The conceptual framework of International Financial Reporting Standards determines the basic principles of accounting. The said principles have multiple applications, with professional judgments being one of those. Recognition and assessment of the information contained in financial reporting, especially so the somewhat uncertain events and transactions and/or the ones regarding which there is no standard or interpretation are based on professional judgments. Professional judgments aim at the formulation of expert assumptions regarding the specifics of the circumstances and events to be entered into the report based on the conceptual framework terms and principles. Experts have to make a choice in favor of one of the aforesaid and simulate the situations applying multi-variant accounting estimates and judgment. In making the choice, one should consider all the factors, which may help represent the information in the best way possible. Professional judgment determines the relevance and faithful representation of the presented information, which makes it more useful for the existing and potential investors. In order to assess the prospected net cash flows, the information must be predictable and reliable. The publication contains critical analysis of the aforementioned problems. The fact that the International Financial Reporting Standards are developed continuously makes the issue all the more important and that is another point discussed in the study.

Keywords: Conceptual Framework for financial reporting, Qualitative characteristics of financial information, Professional judgement, Cost constraints, Financial reporting.

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650 Ethnic Andean Concepts of Health and Illness in the Post-Colombian World and Its Relevance Today

Authors: Elizabeth J. Currie, Fernando Ortega Perez

Abstract:

—‘MEDICINE’ is a new project funded under the EC Horizon 2020 Marie-Sklodowska Curie Actions, to determine concepts of health and healing from a culturally specific indigenous context, using a framework of interdisciplinary methods which integrates archaeological-historical, ethnographic and modern health sciences approaches. The study will generate new theoretical and methodological approaches to model how peoples survive and adapt their traditional belief systems in a context of alien cultural impacts. In the immediate wake of the conquest of Peru by invading Spanish armies and ideology, native Andeans responded by forming the Taki Onkoy millenarian movement, which rejected European philosophical and ontological teachings, claiming “you make us sick”. The study explores how people’s experience of their world and their health beliefs within it, is fundamentally shaped by their inherent beliefs about the nature of being and identity in relation to the wider cosmos. Cultural and health belief systems and related rituals or behaviors sustain a people’s sense of identity, wellbeing and integrity. In the event of dislocation and persecution these may change into devolved forms, which eventually inter-relate with ‘modern’ biomedical systems of health in as yet unidentified ways. The development of new conceptual frameworks that model this process will greatly expand our understanding of how people survive and adapt in response to cultural trauma. It will also demonstrate the continuing role, relevance and use of TM in present-day indigenous communities. Studies will first be made of relevant pre-Colombian material culture, and then of early colonial period ethnohistorical texts which document the health beliefs and ritual practices still employed by indigenous Andean societies at the advent of the 17th century Jesuit campaigns of persecution - ‘Extirpación de las Idolatrías’. Core beliefs drawn from these baseline studies will then be used to construct a questionnaire about current health beliefs and practices to be taken into the study population of indigenous Quechua peoples in the northern Andean region of Ecuador. Their current systems of knowledge and medicine have evolved within complex historical contexts of both the conquest by invading Inca armies in the late 15th century, followed a generation later by Spain, into new forms. A new model will be developed of contemporary  Andean concepts of health, illness and healing demonstrating  the way these have changed through time. With this, a ‘policy tool’ will be constructed as a bridhging facility into contemporary global scenarios relevant to other Indigenous, First Nations, and migrant peoples to provide a means through which their traditional health beliefs and current needs may be more appropriately understood and met. This paper presents findings from the first analytical phases of the work based upon the study of the literature and the archaeological records. The study offers a novel perspective and methods in the development policies sensitive to indigenous and minority people’s health needs.

Keywords: Andean ethnomedicine, andean health beliefs, health beliefs models, traditional medicine.

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649 Estimating Reaction Rate Constants with Neural Networks

Authors: Benedek Kovacs, Janos Toth

Abstract:

Solutions are proposed for the central problem of estimating the reaction rate coefficients in homogeneous kinetics. The first is based upon the fact that the right hand side of a kinetic differential equation is linear in the rate constants, whereas the second one uses the technique of neural networks. This second one is discussed deeply and its advantages, disadvantages and conditions of applicability are analyzed in the mirror of the first one. Numerical analysis carried out on practical models using simulated data, and our programs written in Mathematica.

Keywords: Neural networks, parameter estimation, linear regression, kinetic models, reaction rate coefficients.

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648 Frame Texture Classification Method (FTCM) Applied on Mammograms for Detection of Abnormalities

Authors: Kjersti Engan, Karl Skretting, Jostein Herredsvela, Thor Ole Gulsrud

Abstract:

Texture classification is an important image processing task with a broad application range. Many different techniques for texture classification have been explored. Using sparse approximation as a feature extraction method for texture classification is a relatively new approach, and Skretting et al. recently presented the Frame Texture Classification Method (FTCM), showing very good results on classical texture images. As an extension of that work the FTCM is here tested on a real world application as detection of abnormalities in mammograms. Some extensions to the original FTCM that are useful in some applications are implemented; two different smoothing techniques and a vector augmentation technique. Both detection of microcalcifications (as a primary detection technique and as a last stage of a detection scheme), and soft tissue lesions in mammograms are explored. All the results are interesting, and especially the results using FTCM on regions of interest as the last stage in a detection scheme for microcalcifications are promising.

Keywords: detection, mammogram, texture classification, dictionary learning, FTCM

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647 Word Stemming Algorithms and Retrieval Effectiveness in Malay and Arabic Documents Retrieval Systems

Authors: Tengku Mohd T. Sembok

Abstract:

Documents retrieval in Information Retrieval Systems (IRS) is generally about understanding of information in the documents concern. The more the system able to understand the contents of documents the more effective will be the retrieval outcomes. But understanding of the contents is a very complex task. Conventional IRS apply algorithms that can only approximate the meaning of document contents through keywords approach using vector space model. Keywords may be unstemmed or stemmed. When keywords are stemmed and conflated in retrieving process, we are a step forwards in applying semantic technology in IRS. Word stemming is a process in morphological analysis under natural language processing, before syntactic and semantic analysis. We have developed algorithms for Malay and Arabic and incorporated stemming in our experimental systems in order to measure retrieval effectiveness. The results have shown that the retrieval effectiveness has increased when stemming is used in the systems.

Keywords: Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing, Artificial Intelligence.

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646 Power Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation

Authors: S. H. Oudjana, A. Hellal, I. Hadj Mahammed

Abstract:

Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is an important task in renewable energy power system planning and operating. This paper explores the application of neural networks (NN) to study the design of photovoltaic power generation forecasting systems for one week ahead using weather databases include the global irradiance, and temperature of Ghardaia city (south of Algeria) using a data acquisition system. Simulations were run and the results are discussed showing that neural networks Technique is capable to decrease the photovoltaic power generation forecasting error.

Keywords: Photovoltaic Power Forecasting, Regression, Neural Networks.

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645 Highly Conductive Polycrystalline Metallic Ring in a Magnetic Field

Authors: Isao Tomita

Abstract:

Electrical conduction in a quasi-one-dimensional polycrystalline metallic ring with a long electron phase coherence length realized at low temperature is investigated. In this situation, the wave nature of electrons is important in the ring, where the electrical current I can be induced by a vector potential that arises from a static magnetic field applied perpendicularly to the ring’s area. It is shown that if the average grain size of the polycrystalline ring becomes large (or comparable to the Fermi wavelength), the electrical current I increases to ~I0, where I0 is a current in a disorder-free ring. The cause of this increasing effect is examined, and this takes place if the electron localization length in the polycrystalline potential increases with increasing grain size, which gives rise to coherent connection of tails of a localized electron wave function in the ring and thus provides highly coherent electrical conduction.

Keywords: Electrical Conduction, Electron Phase Coherence, Polycrystalline Metal, Magnetic Field.

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644 Usage of Military Spending, Debt Servicing and Growth for Dealing with Emergency Plan of Indian External Debt

Authors: Sahbi Farhani

Abstract:

This study investigates the relationship between external debt and military spending in case of India over the period of 1970–2012. In doing so, we have applied the structural break unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of the variables. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to test whether cointegration exists in presence of structural breaks stemming in the series. Our results indicate the cointegration among external debt, military spending, debt servicing, and economic growth. Moreover, military spending and debt servicing add in external debt. Economic growth helps in lowering external debt. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis and Granger causality test reveal that military spending and economic growth cause external debt. The feedback effect also exists between external debt and debt servicing in case of India.

Keywords: External debt, military spending, ARDL approach, structural breaks, India.

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643 The Influence of Social Network Websites on Level of user Satisfaction

Authors: Pedram Behyar, Maryam Heidari, Zahra Bayat

Abstract:

the purpose of this research is to identify and clarify factors which have positive effect among user satisfaction and their social networking through websites. The examined factors in this research are; innovation, ease of use, trustworthy and customer support which are defined as satisfaction factors. To obtain reliable research approaches and to have better result in this research four hypothesizes used to test. This hypothesis testing has been done by correlation, regression and test of normality by using “SPSS16" also the data which was analyzed by this software. this data was gathered from prepaid questionnaire.

Keywords: Customer Satisfaction, Social Network Website

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642 Material Failure Process Simulation by Improve Finite Elements with Embedded Discontinuities

Authors: Juárez-Luna Gelacio, Ayala Gustavo, Retama-Velasco Jaime

Abstract:

This paper shows the advantages of the material failure process simulation by improve finite elements with embedded discontinuities, using a new definition of traction vector, dependent on the discontinuity length and the angle. Particularly, two families of this kind of elements are compared: kinematically optimal symmetric and statically and kinematically optimal non-symmetric. The constitutive model to describe the behavior of the material in the symmetric formulation is a traction-displacement jump relationship equipped with softening after reaching the failure surface.

To show the validity of this symmetric formulation, representative numerical examples illustrating the performance of the proposed formulation are presented. It is shown that the non-symmetric family may over or underestimate the energy required to create a discontinuity, as this effect is related with the total length of the discontinuity, fact that is not noticed when the discontinuity path is a straight line.

Keywords: Variational formulation, strong discontinuity, embedded discontinuities, strain localization.

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641 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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640 Influential Parameters in Estimating Soil Properties from Cone Penetrating Test: An Artificial Neural Network Study

Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

Abstract:

The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: Angle of internal friction, Cone penetrating test, General regression neural network, Soil modulus of elasticity.

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639 Research Regarding Resistance Characteristics of Biscuits Assortment Using Cone Penetrometer

Authors: G.–A. Constantin, G. Voicu, E.–M. Stefan, P. Tudor, G. Paraschiv, M.–G. Munteanu

Abstract:

In the activity of handling and transport of food products, the products may be subjected to mechanical stresses that may lead to their deterioration by deformation, breaking, or crushing. This is the case for biscuits, regardless of their type (gluten-free or sugary), the addition of ingredients or flour from which they are made. However, gluten-free biscuits have a higher mechanical resistance to breakage or crushing compared to easily shattered sugar biscuits (especially those for children). The paper presents the results of the experimental evaluation of the texture for four varieties of commercial biscuits, using the penetrometer equipped with needle cone at five different additional weights on the cone-rod. The assortments of biscuits tested in the laboratory were Petit Beurre, Picnic, and Maia (all three manufactured by RoStar, Romania) and Sultani diet biscuits, manufactured by Eti Burcak Sultani (Turkey, in packs of 138 g). For the four varieties of biscuits and the five additional weights (50, 77, 100, 150 and 177 g), the experimental data obtained were subjected to regression analysis in the MS Office Excel program, using Velon's relationship (h = a∙ln(t) + b). The regression curves were analysed comparatively in order to identify possible differences and to highlight the variation of the penetration depth h, in relation to the time t. Based on the penetration depth between two-time intervals (every 5 seconds), the curves of variation of the penetration speed in relation to time were then drawn. It was found that Velon's law verifies the experimental data for all assortments of biscuits and for all five additional weights. The correlation coefficient R2 had in most of the analysed cases values over 0.850. The values recorded for the penetration depth were framed, in general, within 45-55 p.u. (penetrometric units) at an additional mass of 50 g, respectively between 155-168 p.u., at an additional mass of 177 g, at Petit Beurre biscuits. For Sultani diet biscuits, the values of the penetration depth were within the limits of 32-35 p.u., at an additional weight of 50 g and between 80-114 p.u., at an additional weight of 177g. The data presented in the paper can be used by both operators on the manufacturing technology flow, as well as by the traders of these food products, in order to establish the most efficient parametric of the working regimes (when packaging and handling).

Keywords: Biscuits resistance/texture, penetration depth, penetration velocity, sharp pin penetrometer.

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638 The Laser Line Detection for Autonomous Mapping Based on Color Segmentation

Authors: Pavel Chmelar, Martin Dobrovolny

Abstract:

Laser projection or laser footprint detection is today widely used in many fields of robotics, measurement or electronics. The system accuracy strictly depends on precise laser footprint detection on target objects. This article deals with the laser line detection based on the RGB segmentation and the component labeling. As a measurement device was used the developed optical rangefinder. The optical rangefinder is equipped with vertical sweeping of the laser beam and high quality camera. This system was developed mainly for automatic exploration and mapping of unknown spaces. In the first section is presented a new detection algorithm. In the second section are presented measurements results. The measurements were performed in variable light conditions in interiors. The last part of the article present achieved results and their differences between day and night measurements.

Keywords: Automatic mapping, color segmentation, component labeling, distance measurement, laser line detection, vector map.

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637 Low Latency Routing Algorithm for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Ad-Hoc Networks

Authors: Abdel Ilah Alshabtat, Liang Dong

Abstract:

In this paper, we proposed a new routing protocol for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) that equipped with directional antenna. We named this protocol Directional Optimized Link State Routing Protocol (DOLSR). This protocol is based on the well known protocol that is called Optimized Link State Routing Protocol (OLSR). We focused in our protocol on the multipoint relay (MPR) concept which is the most important feature of this protocol. We developed a heuristic that allows DOLSR protocol to minimize the number of the multipoint relays. With this new protocol the number of overhead packets will be reduced and the End-to-End delay of the network will also be minimized. We showed through simulation that our protocol outperformed Optimized Link State Routing Protocol, Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) protocol and Ad- Hoc On demand Distance Vector (AODV) routing protocol in reducing the End-to-End delay and enhancing the overall throughput. Our evaluation of the previous protocols was based on the OPNET network simulation tool.

Keywords: Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks, Ad-Hoc RoutingProtocols, Optimized link State Routing Protocol, Unmanned AerialVehicles, Directional Antenna.

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636 A Hybrid Gene Selection Technique Using Improved Mutual Information and Fisher Score for Cancer Classification Using Microarrays

Authors: M. Anidha, K. Premalatha

Abstract:

Feature Selection is significant in order to perform constructive classification in the area of cancer diagnosis. However, a large number of features compared to the number of samples makes the task of classification computationally very hard and prone to errors in microarray gene expression datasets. In this paper, we present an innovative method for selecting highly informative gene subsets of gene expression data that effectively classifies the cancer data into tumorous and non-tumorous. The hybrid gene selection technique comprises of combined Mutual Information and Fisher score to select informative genes. The gene selection is validated by classification using Support Vector Machine (SVM) which is a supervised learning algorithm capable of solving complex classification problems. The results obtained from improved Mutual Information and F-Score with SVM as a classifier has produced efficient results.

Keywords: Gene selection, mutual information, Fisher score, classification, SVM.

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635 Malaria Prone Zones of West Bengal: A Spatio-Temporal Scenario

Authors: Meghna Maiti, Utpal Roy

Abstract:

In India, till today, malaria is considered to be one of the significant infectious diseases. Most of the cases regional geographical factors are the principal elements to let the places a unique identity. The incidence and intensity of infectious diseases are quite common and affect different places differently across the nation. The present study aims to identify spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots of malaria incidence and their seasonal variation during the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20 in the state of West Bengal in India. As malaria is a vector-borne disease, numbers of positive test results are to be reported by the laboratories to the Department of Health, West Bengal (through the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme). Data on block-wise monthly malaria positive cases are collected from Health Management Information System (HMIS), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. Moran’s I statistic is performed to assess the spatial autocorrelation of malaria incidence. The spatial statistical analysis mainly Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) cluster and Local Geary Cluster are applied to find the spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots and seasonal variability of malaria incidence over the three periods. The result indicates that the spatial distribution of malaria is clustered during each of the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20. The analysis shows that in all the cases, high-high clusters are primarily concentrated in the western (Purulia, Paschim Medinipur districts), central (Maldah, Murshidabad districts) and the northern parts (Jalpaiguri, Kochbihar districts) and low-low clusters are found in the lower Gangetic plain (central-south) mainly and northern parts of West Bengal during the stipulated period. Apart from this seasonal variability inter-year variation is also visible. The results from different methods of this study indicate significant variation in the spatial distribution of malaria incidence in West Bengal and high incidence clusters are primarily persistently concentrated over the western part during 2012-2020 along with a strong seasonal pattern with a peak in rainy and autumn. By applying the different techniques in identifying the different degrees of incidence zones of malaria across West Bengal, some specific pockets or malaria hotspots are marked and identified where the incidence rates are quite harmonious over the different periods. From this analysis, it is clear that malaria is not a disease that is distributed uniformly across the state; some specific pockets are more prone to be affected in particular seasons of each year. Disease ecology and spatial patterns must be the factors in explaining the real factors for the higher incidence of this issue within those affected districts. The further study mainly by applying empirical approach is needed for discerning the strong relationship between communicable disease and other associated affecting factors.

Keywords: Malaria, infectious diseases, spatial statistics, spatial autocorrelation, LISA.

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