Search results for: Statistical models and Timed automata

Authors: M. D. Nayeri, M. M. Mashhadi, K. Mohajeri

Abstract:

Defining strategic position of the organizations within the industry environment is one of the basic and most important phases of strategic planning to which extent that one of the fundamental schools of strategic planning is the strategic positioning school. In today-s knowledge-based economy and dynamic environment, it is essential for universities as the centers of education, knowledge creation and knowledge worker evolvement. Till now, variant models with different approaches to strategic positioning are deployed in defining the strategic position within the various industries. Balanced Scorecard as one of the powerful models for strategic positioning, analyzes all aspects of the organization evenly. In this paper with the consideration of BSC strength in strategic evaluation, it is used for analyzing the environmental position of the best-s Iranian Business Schools. The results could be used in developing strategic plans for these schools as well as other Iranian Management and Business Schools.

Keywords: Strategic planning, Strategic position, Balancedscorecard, Higher education institutions.

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Authors: Ahmed Hossam_ ElDin, Ahmed Farag, Ibrahim Madi., Hanaa Karawia

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In our modern society electricity is vital to our health, safety, comfort and well-being. While our daily use of electricity is often taken for granted, public concern has arisen about potential adverse health effects from electric and magnetic – electromagnetic – fields (EMFs) produced by our use of electricity. This paper aims to compare between the measured magnetic field values and the simulated models for the indoor medium to low voltage (MV/LV) distribution substations. To calculate the magnetic flux density in the substations, interactive software SUBCALC is used which is based on closed form solution of the Biot-Savart law with 3D conductor model. The comparison between the measured values and the simulated models was acceptable. However there were some discrepancies, as expected, may be due to the current variation during measurements.

Keywords: Distribution substation, magnetic field, measurement, simulation.

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Authors: V. Uma Rani, K. Soma Sundaram

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The major challenge faced by wireless sensor networks is security. Because of dynamic and collaborative nature of sensor networks the connected sensor devices makes the network unusable. To solve this issue, a trust model is required to find malicious, selfish and compromised insiders by evaluating trust worthiness sensors from the network. It supports the decision making processes in wireless sensor networks such as pre key-distribution, cluster head selection, data aggregation, routing and self reconfiguration of sensor nodes. This paper discussed the kinds of trust model, trust metrics used to address attacks by monitoring certain behavior of network. It describes the major design issues and their countermeasures of building trust model. It also discusses existing trust models used in various decision making process of wireless sensor networks.

Keywords: Attacks, Security, Trust, Trust model, Wireless sensor network.

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Authors: Yuanqing Li, Changyi Lei, Zhaopeng Xue, Zhuo Zheng, Yanbo Long

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In agricultural production and breeding, implementing automatic picking robot in orchard farming to reduce human labour and error is challenging. The core function of it is automatic identification based on machine vision. This paper focuses on apple detection and counting in orchards and implements several deep learning methods. Extensive datasets are used and a semi-automatic annotation method is proposed. The proposed deep learning models are in state-of-the-art YOLO family. In view of the essence of the models with various backbones, a multi-dimensional comparison in details is made in terms of counting accuracy, mAP and model memory, laying the foundation for realising automatic precision agriculture.

Keywords: Agricultural object detection, Deep learning, machine vision, YOLO family.

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Authors: M. Vatani, A. R. Rahimi, F. Brazandeh, A. Sanati nezhad

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Although the STL (stereo lithography) file format is widely used as a de facto industry standard in the rapid prototyping industry due to its simplicity and ability to tessellation of almost all surfaces, but there are always some defects and shortcoming in their usage, which many of them are difficult to correct manually. In processing the complex models, size of the file and its defects grow extremely, therefore, correcting STL files become difficult. In this paper through optimizing the exiting algorithms, size of the files and memory usage of computers to process them will be reduced. In spite of type and extent of the errors in STL files, the tail-to-head searching method and analysis of the nearest distance between tails and heads techniques were used. As a result STL models sliced rapidly, and fully closed contours produced effectively and errorless.

Keywords: Layer manufacturing, STL files, slicing algorithm, nearest distance analysis.

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Authors: Quy Dang Nguyen, Reza Nakhaie Jazar

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The paper investigates vibration dynamics of tire-road separation for a quarter-car model; this separation model is developed to be close to the real situation considering the tire is able to separate from the ground plane. A set of piecewise linear mathematical models is developed and matches the in-contact and no-contact states to be considered as mother models for further investigations. The bound dynamics are numerically simulated in the time response and phase portraits. The separation analysis may determine which values of suspension parameters can delay and avoid the no-contact phenomenon, which results in improving ride comfort and eliminating the potentially dangerous oscillation. Finally, model verification is carried out in the MSC-ADAMS environment.

Keywords: Quarter-car vibrations, tire-road separation, separation analysis, separation dynamics, ride comfort, ADAMS validation.

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Authors: Ademola K. Aremu, Joseph. C. Igbeka

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The performance of box-type solar cookers has been reported by several researchers but little attention was paid to the effect of the type of insulation material on the energy and exergy efficiency of these cookers. This research aimed at evaluating the energy and exergy efficiencies of the box-type cookers containing different insulation materials. Energy and exergy efficiencies of five box-type solar cookers insulated with maize cob, air (control), maize husk, coconut coir and polyurethane foam respectively were obtained over a period of three years. The cookers were evaluated using water heating test procedures in determining the energy and exergy analysis. The results were subjected to statistical analysis using ANOVA. The result shows that the average energy input for the five solar cookers were: 245.5, 252.2, 248.7, 241.5 and 245.5J respectively while their respective average energy losses were: 201.2, 212.7, 208.4, 189.1 and 199.8J. The average exergy input for five cookers were: 228.2, 234.4, 231.1, 224.4 and 228.2J respectively while their respective average exergy losses were: 223.4, 230.6, 226.9, 218.9 and 223.0J. The energy and exergy efficiency was highest in the cooker with coconut coir (37.35 and 3.90% respectively) in the first year but was lowest for air (11 and 1.07% respectively) in the third year. Statistical analysis showed significant difference between the energy and exergy efficiencies over the years. These results reiterate the importance of a good insulating material for a box-type solar cooker.

Keywords: Efficiency, energy, exergy, heating, insolation.

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Authors: Qasem Qananwah, Ahmad Dagamseh, Hiam AlQuran, Khalid Shaker Ibrahim

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Blood pressure helps the physicians greatly to have a deep insight into the cardiovascular system. The determination of individual blood pressure is a standard clinical procedure considered for cardiovascular system problems. The conventional techniques to measure blood pressure (e.g. cuff method) allows a limited number of readings for a certain period (e.g. every 5-10 minutes). Additionally, these systems cause turbulence to blood flow; impeding continuous blood pressure monitoring, especially in emergency cases or critically ill persons. In this paper, the most important statistical features in the photoplethysmogram (PPG) signals were extracted to estimate the blood pressure noninvasively. PPG signals from more than 40 subjects were measured and analyzed and 12 features were extracted. The features were fed to principal component analysis (PCA) to find the most important independent features that have the highest correlation with blood pressure. The results show that the stiffness index means and standard deviation for the beat-to-beat heart rate were the most important features. A model representing both features for Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP) and Diastolic Blood Pressure (DBP) was obtained using a statistical regression technique. Surface fitting is used to best fit the series of data and the results show that the error value in estimating the SBP is 4.95% and in estimating the DBP is 3.99%.

Keywords: Blood pressure, noninvasive optical system, PCA, continuous monitoring.

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Authors: Aissam Belghiat, Mustapha Bourahla

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Models are placed by modeling paradigm at the center of development process. These models are represented by languages, like UML the language standardized by the OMG which became necessary for development. Moreover the ontology engineering paradigm places ontologies at the center of development process; in this paradigm we find OWL the principal language for knowledge representation. Building ontologies from scratch is generally a difficult task. The bridging between UML and OWL appeared on several regards such as the classes and associations. In this paper, we have to profit from convergence between UML and OWL to propose an approach based on Meta-Modelling and Graph Grammars and registered in the MDA architecture for the automatic generation of OWL ontologies from UML class diagrams. The transformation is based on transformation rules; the level of abstraction in these rules is close to the application in order to have usable ontologies. We illustrate this approach by an example.

Keywords: ATOM3, MDA, Ontology, OWL, UML

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Authors: Ayesha Zaman, Tanvir Atahary, Shahida Rafiq

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Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging(fMRI) is a noninvasive imaging technique that measures the hemodynamic response related to neural activity in the human brain. Event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (efMRI) is a form of functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) in which a series of fMRI images are time-locked to a stimulus presentation and averaged together over many trials. Again an event related potential (ERP) is a measured brain response that is directly the result of a thought or perception. Here the neuronal response of human visual cortex in normal healthy patients have been studied. The patients were asked to perform a visual three choice reaction task; from the relative response of each patient corresponding neuronal activity in visual cortex was imaged. The average number of neurons in the adult human primary visual cortex, in each hemisphere has been estimated at around 140 million. Statistical analysis of this experiment was done with SPM5(Statistical Parametric Mapping version 5) software. The result shows a robust design of imaging the neuronal activity of human visual cortex.

Keywords: Echo Planner Imaging, Event related Response, General Linear Model, Visual Neuronal Response.

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Authors: Z. Heirany, M. Ghaemian

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Behavior of dams against the seismic loads has been studied by many researchers. Most of them proposed new numerical methods to investigate the dam safety. In this paper, to study the effect of nonlinear parameters of concrete in gravity dams, a twodimensional approach was used including the finite element method, staggered method and smeared crack approach. Effective parameters in the models are physical properties of concrete such as modulus of elasticity, tensile strength and specific fracture energy. Two different models were used in foundation (mass-less and massed) in order to determine the seismic response of concrete gravity dams. Results show that when the nonlinear analysis includes the dam- foundation interaction, the foundation-s mass, flexibility and radiation damping are important in gravity dam-s response.

Keywords: Numerical methods; concrete gravity dams; finiteelement method; boundary condition

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Authors: C. Pislaru, A. Shebani

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This paper uses the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for system identification of nonlinear systems. Five nonlinear systems are used to examine the activity of RBFNN in system modeling of nonlinear systems; the five nonlinear systems are dual tank system, single tank system, DC motor system, and two academic models. The feed forward method is considered in this work for modelling the non-linear dynamic models, where the KMeans clustering algorithm used in this paper to select the centers of radial basis function network, because it is reliable, offers fast convergence and can handle large data sets. The least mean square method is used to adjust the weights to the output layer, and Euclidean distance method used to measure the width of the Gaussian function.

Keywords: System identification, Nonlinear system, Neural networks, RBF neural network.

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Authors: Nhon Do, Tam Pham

Abstract:

Knowledge bases are basic components of expert systems or intelligent computational programs. Knowledge bases provide knowledge, events that serve deduction activity, computation and control. Therefore, researching and developing of models for knowledge representation play an important role in computer science, especially in Artificial Intelligence Science and intelligent educational software. In this paper, the extensive deduction computational model is proposed to design knowledge bases whose attributes are able to be real values or functional values. The system can also solve problems based on knowledge bases. Moreover, the models and algorithms are applied to produce the educational software for solving alternating current problems or solving set of equations automatically.

Keywords: Educational software, artificial intelligence, knowledge base systems, knowledge representation.

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Authors: Wisam F. Al-Azzo, Borhanuddin Mohd. Ali

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This paper addresses the problem of peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. It also introduces a new PAPR reduction technique based on adaptive square-rooting (SQRT) companding process. The SQRT process of the proposed technique changes the statistical characteristics of the OFDM output signals from Rayleigh distribution to Gaussian-like distribution. This change in statistical distribution results changes of both the peak and average power values of OFDM signals, and consequently reduces significantly the PAPR. For the 64QAM OFDM system using 512 subcarriers, up to 6 dB reduction in PAPR was achieved by square-rooting technique with fixed degradation in bit error rate (BER) equal to 3 dB. However, the PAPR is reduced at the expense of only -15 dB out-ofband spectral shoulder re-growth below the in-band signal level. The proposed adaptive SQRT technique is superior in terms of BER performance than the original, non-adaptive, square-rooting technique when the required reduction in PAPR is no more than 5 dB. Also, it provides fixed amount of PAPR reduction in which it is not available in the original SQRT technique.

Keywords: complementary cumulative distribution function(CCDF), OFDM, peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR), adaptivesquare-rooting PAPR reduction technique.

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Authors: Tharini N. de Silva, Xiao Zhibo, Zhao Rui, Mao Kezhi

Abstract:

Causal relation identification is a crucial task in information extraction and knowledge discovery. In this work, we present two approaches to causal relation identification. The first is a classification model trained on a set of knowledge-based features. The second is a deep learning based approach training a model using convolutional neural networks to classify causal relations. We experiment with several different convolutional neural networks (CNN) models based on previous work on relation extraction as well as our own research. Our models are able to identify both explicit and implicit causal relations as well as the direction of the causal relation. The results of our experiments show a higher accuracy than previously achieved for causal relation identification tasks.

Keywords: Causal relation identification, convolutional neural networks, natural Language Processing, Machine Learning.

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Authors: L. Ramirez, E. Guillén, J. Sánchez

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Some of the main goals about telecare such as monitoring, treatment, telediagnostic are deployed with the integration of applications with specific appliances. In order to achieve a coherent model to integrate software, hardware, and healthcare systems, different telehealth models with Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, artificial intelligence, etc. have been implemented, and their advantages are still under analysis. In this paper, we propose an integrated model based on IoT architecture and cloud computing telehealth center. Analytics module is presented as a solution to control an ideal diagnostic about some diseases. Specific features are then compared with the recently deployed conventional models in telemedicine. The main advantage of this model is the availability of controlling the security and privacy about patient information and the optimization on processing and acquiring clinical parameters according to technical characteristics.

Keywords: Analytics, telemedicine, internet of things, cloud computing.

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Authors: Kai Häussermann, Christoph Hubig, Paul Levi, Frank Leymann, Oliver Siemoneit, Matthias Wieland, Oliver Zweigle

Abstract:

Using spatial models as a shared common basis of information about the environment for different kinds of contextaware systems has been a heavily researched topic in the last years. Thereby the research focused on how to create, to update, and to merge spatial models so as to enable highly dynamic, consistent and coherent spatial models at large scale. In this paper however, we want to concentrate on how context-aware applications could use this information so as to adapt their behavior according to the situation they are in. The main idea is to provide the spatial model infrastructure with a situation recognition component based on generic situation templates. A situation template is – as part of a much larger situation template library – an abstract, machinereadable description of a certain basic situation type, which could be used by different applications to evaluate their situation. In this paper, different theoretical and practical issues – technical, ethical and philosophical ones – are discussed important for understanding and developing situation dependent systems based on situation templates. A basic system design is presented which allows for the reasoning with uncertain data using an improved version of a learning algorithm for the automatic adaption of situation templates. Finally, for supporting the development of adaptive applications, we present a new situation-aware adaptation concept based on workflows.

Keywords: context-awareness, ethics, facilitation of system use through workflows, situation recognition and learning based on situation templates and situation ontology's, theory of situationaware systems

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Authors: María-Dolores Cubiles-de-la-Vega, Rafael Pino-Mejías, Esther-Lydia Silva-Ramírez

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A dissimilarity measure between the empiric characteristic functions of the subsamples associated to the different classes in a multivariate data set is proposed. This measure can be efficiently computed, and it depends on all the cases of each class. It may be used to find groups of similar classes, which could be joined for further analysis, or it could be employed to perform an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis of the set of classes. The final tree can serve to build a family of binary classification models, offering an alternative approach to the multi-class SVM problem. We have tested this dendrogram based SVM approach with the oneagainst- one SVM approach over four publicly available data sets, three of them being microarray data. Both performances have been found equivalent, but the first solution requires a smaller number of binary SVM models.

Keywords: Cluster Analysis, Empiric Characteristic Function, Multi-class SVM, R.

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Authors: Fahad Alanazi, Andrew Jones

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Digital forensics seeks to achieve the successful investigation of digital crimes through obtaining acceptable evidence from digital devices that can be presented in a court of law. Thus, the digital forensics investigation is normally performed through a number of phases in order to achieve the required level of accuracy in the investigation processes. Since 1984 there have been a number of models and frameworks developed to support the digital investigation processes. In this paper, we review a number of the investigation processes that have been produced throughout the years and introduce a proposed digital forensic model which is based on the scope of the Saudi Arabia investigation process. The proposed model has been integrated with existing models for the investigation processes and produced a new phase to deal with a situation where there is initially insufficient evidence.

Keywords: Digital forensics, Process, Metadata, Traceback, Saudi Arabia.

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Authors: Caroline E. Mendes, Alberto C. Badino

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Pneumatic reactors have been widely employed in various sectors of the chemical industry, especially where are required high heat and mass transfer rates. This study aimed to obtain correlations that allow the prediction of gas hold-up (Ԑ) and volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (k_La), and compare these values, for three models of pneumatic reactors on two scales utilizing Newtonian fluids. Values of k_La ​​were obtained using the dynamic pressure-step method, while e was used for a new proposed measure. Comparing the three models of reactors studied, it was observed that the mass transfer was superior to draft-tube airlift, reaching e of 0.173 and k_La of 0.00904s^-1. All correlations showed good fit to the experimental data (R²≥94%), and comparisons with correlations from the literature demonstrate the need for further similar studies due to shortage of data available, mainly for airlift reactors and high viscosity fluids.

Keywords: Bubble column, internal loop airlift, gas hold-up, kLa.

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Authors: C. I. Abiodun, S. O. Azi, J. S. Ojo, P. Akinyemi

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The design of accurate and reliable mobile communication systems depends majorly on the suitability of path loss prediction methods and the adaptability of the methods to various environments of interest. In this research, the results of the adaptability of radio channel behavior are presented based on practical measurements carried out in the 1800 MHz frequency band. The measurements are carried out in typical urban, suburban and rural environments in Ekiti State, Southwestern part of Nigeria. A total number of seven base stations of MTN GSM service located in the studied environments were monitored. Path loss and break point distances were deduced from the measured received signal strength (RSS) and a practical path loss model is proposed based on the deduced break point distances. The proposed two slope model, regression line and four existing path loss models were compared with the measured path loss values. The standard deviations of each model with respect to the measured path loss were estimated for each base station. The proposed model and regression line exhibited lowest standard deviations followed by the Cost231-Hata model when compared with the Erceg Ericsson and SUI models. Generally, the proposed two-slope model shows closest agreement with the measured values with a mean error values of 2 to 6 dB. These results show that, either the proposed two slope model or Cost 231-Hata model may be used to predict path loss values in mobile micro cell coverage in the well-considered environments. Information from this work will be useful for link design of microwave band wireless access systems in the region.

Keywords: Break-point distances, path loss models, path loss exponent, received signal strength.

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Authors: Boyan Bontchev, Dessislava Vassileva

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Internet computer games turn to be more and more attractive within the context of technology enhanced learning. Educational games as quizzes and quests have gained significant success in appealing and motivating learners to study in a different way and provoke steadily increasing interest in new methods of application. Board games are specific group of games where figures are manipulated in competitive play mode with race conditions on a surface according predefined rules. The article represents a new, formalized model of traditional quizzes, puzzles and quests shown as multimedia board games which facilitates the construction process of such games. Authors provide different examples of quizzes and their models in order to demonstrate the model is quite general and does support not only quizzes, mazes and quests but also any set of teaching activities. The execution process of such models is explained and, as well, how they can be useful for creation and delivery of adaptive e-learning courseware.

Keywords: Quiz, board game, e-learning, adaptive.

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Authors: Jaswinder Kaur, Satwinder Singh, Karanjeet Singh Kahlon

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Accurate software cost estimates are critical to both developers and customers. They can be used for generating request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring and control. The exact relationship between the attributes of the effort estimation is difficult to establish. A neural network is good at discovering relationships and pattern in the data. So, in this paper a comparative analysis among existing Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model and Neural Network Based Model is performed. Neural Network has outperformed the other considered models. Hence, we proposed Neural Network system as a soft computing approach to model the effort estimation of the software systems.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural Network, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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Authors: Yazan M. Alatrash, Han-ok Kang, Hyun-gi Yoon, Shen Zhang, Juhyeon Yoon

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Flow coastdown phenomena are very important to secure nuclear fuel integrity during loss of off-site power accidents. In this study, primary coolant flow coastdown phenomena are investigated for the Jordan Research and Training Reactor (JRTR) using a simulation software package, Modular Modeling System (MMS). Two MMS models are built. The first one is a simple model to investigate the characteristics of the primary coolant pump only. The second one is a model for a simulation of the Primary Coolant System (PCS) loop, in which all the detailed design data of the JRTR PCS system are modeled, including the geometrical arrangement data. The same design data for a PCS pump are used for both models. Coastdown curves obtained from the two models are compared to study the PCS loop coolant inertia effect on a flow coastdown. Results showed that the loop coolant inertia effect is found to be small in the JRTR PCS loop, i.e., about one second increases in a coastdown half time required to halve the coolant flow rate. The effects of different flywheel inertia on the flow coastdown are also investigated. It is demonstrated that the coastdown half time increases with the flywheel inertia linearly. The designed coastdown half time is proved to be well above the design requirement for the fuel integrity.

Keywords: Flow Coastdown, Loop Coolant Inertia, Modeling, Research Reactor.

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Authors: J. García-Pérez

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An approach to compute optimum seismic design parameters is presented. It is based on the optimization of the expected present value of the total cost, which includes the initial cost of structures as well as the cost due to earthquakes. Different types of seismicity models are considered, including one for characteristic earthquakes. Uncertainties are included in some variables to observe the influence on optimum values. Optimum seismic design coefficients are computed for three different structural types representing high, medium and low rise buildings, located near and far from the seismic sources. Ordinary and important structures are considered in the analysis. The results of optimum values show an important influence of seismicity models as well as of uncertainties on the variables.

Keywords: Importance factors, optimum parameters, seismic losses, seismic risk, total cost.

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Authors: Ö.F. Ursavas, H. Karal

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In this study it is aimed to determine the level of preservice teachers- computer phobia. Whether or not computer phobia meaningfully varies statistically according to gender and computer experience has been tested in the study. The study was performed on 430 pre-service teachers at the Education Faculty in Rize/Turkey. Data in the study were collected through the Computer Phobia Scale consisting of the “Personal Knowledge Questionnaire", “Computer Anxiety Rating Scale", and “Computer Thought Survey". In this study, data were analyzed with statistical processes such as t test, and correlation analysis. According to results of statistical analyses, computer phobia of male pre-service teachers does not statistically vary depending on their gender. Although male preservice teachers have higher computer anxiety scores, they have lower computer thought scores. It was also observed that there is a negative and intensive relation between computer experience and computer anxiety. Meanwhile it was found out that pre-service teachers using computer regularly indicated lower computer anxiety. Obtained results were tried to be discussed in terms of the number of computer classes in the Education Faculty curriculum, hours of computer class and the computer availability of student teachers.

Keywords: Computer phobia, computer anxiety, computer thought, pre-service teachers.

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Authors: Yi-Chang Chen, Shan-Lin Chang, Chia-Chun Wu

Abstract:

Unlike this study focused extensively on trading behavior of option market, those researches were just taken their attention to model-driven option pricing. For example, Black-Scholes (B-S) model is one of the most famous option pricing models. However, the arguments of B-S model are previously mentioned by some pricing models reviewing. This paper following suggests the importance of the dynamic character for option pricing, which is also the reason why using the genetic algorithm (GA). Because of its natural selection and species evolution, this study proposed a hybrid model, the Genetic-BS model which combining GA and B-S to estimate the price more accurate. As for the final experiments, the result shows that the output estimated price with lower MAE value than the calculated price by either B-S model or its enhanced one, Gram-Charlier garch (G-C garch) model. Finally, this work would conclude that the Genetic-BS pricing model is exactly practical.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, Genetic-BS, option pricing model.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

Abstract:

In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices over the past five years of 10 major tech companies: Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We implemented and tested three models – a linear regressor model, a k-nearest neighbor model (KNN), and a sequential neural network – and two algorithms – Multiplicative Weight Update and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: Finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market.

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Authors: Trevor E. Davis, Isaac Cassar, Yi-Kai Lo, Wentai Liu

Abstract:

This study models the use of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation on skin with a disk electrode in order to simulate tissue damage. The current density distribution above a disk electrode is known to be a dynamic and non-uniform quantity that is intensified at the edges of the disk. The non-uniformity is subject to change through using various electrode geometries or stimulation methods. One of these methods known as edge-retarded stimulation has shown to reduce this edge enhancement. Though progress has been made in modeling the behavior of a disk electrode, little has been done to test the validity of these models in simulating the actual heat transfer from the electrode. This simulation uses finite element software to couple the injection of current from a disk electrode to heat transfer described by the Pennesbioheat transfer equation. An example application of this model is studying an experimental form of stimulation, known as edge-retarded stimulation. The edge-retarded stimulation method will reduce the current density at the edges of the electrode. It is hypothesized that reducing the current density edge enhancement effect will, in turn, reduce temperature change and tissue damage at the edges of these electrodes. This study tests this hypothesis as a demonstration of the capabilities of this model. The edge-retarded stimulation proved to be safer after this simulation. It is shown that temperature change and the fraction of tissue necrosis is much greater in the square wave stimulation. These results bring implications for changes of procedures in transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation and transcutaneous spinal cord stimulation as well.

Keywords: Bioheat transfer, Electrode, Neuroprosthetics, TENS, Transcutaneous stimulation.

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