Expected Present Value of Losses in the Computation of Optimum Seismic Design Parameters
Authors: J. García-Pérez
Abstract:
An approach to compute optimum seismic design parameters is presented. It is based on the optimization of the expected present value of the total cost, which includes the initial cost of structures as well as the cost due to earthquakes. Different types of seismicity models are considered, including one for characteristic earthquakes. Uncertainties are included in some variables to observe the influence on optimum values. Optimum seismic design coefficients are computed for three different structural types representing high, medium and low rise buildings, located near and far from the seismic sources. Ordinary and important structures are considered in the analysis. The results of optimum values show an important influence of seismicity models as well as of uncertainties on the variables.
Keywords: Importance factors, optimum parameters, seismic losses, seismic risk, total cost.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1124493
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1354References:
[1] E. Rosenblueth, “Closure to probabilistic design to resist earthquakes”, Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Div. Proc. ASCE, 90, 1964.
[2] L. Esteva, “Bases para la formulación de diseño sísmico”, PhD thesis, Faculty of Engineering, UNAM, 1968.
[3] J. R. Benjamin, J.R., and A:C: Cornell, “Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers”, McGraw-Hill, New York. 1970.
[4] A. Tversky, and D. Kahneman, “Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty”. J Risk Uncertainty, 5: 297- 323, 1992.
[5] B. Gutenberg, and C.F. Richter, 1954. „Seismicity of the earth”, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1954.
[6] C. A. Cornell, and E. Vanmarcke, “The major influences on seismic risk”, Proceedings of the IV world congress in earthquake engineering, A 169-183. 1969.
[7] S. K. Singh, M. Rodríguez, and L. Esteva, “Statistics of small earthquakes and frequency of occurrence of large earthquakes along the Mexican subduction zone” Bulleting of the Seismological Society of America, 73: 1779-96, 1983.
[8] R. R. Young, and K.L. Coppersmith, “Implications of fault slip rates and earthquake occurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates”, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1985, 75: 939-64, 1985.
[9] S. K. Singh, E. Mena, R. Castro, and C. Carmona, “Empirical prediction of ground motion in Mexico City from coastal earthquakes” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 77(5): 1862-7, 1987.
[10] S. K. Singh, M. Ordaz, J. G. Anderson, M. Rodríguez, R. Quaas,, and E. Mena, “Analysis of near-source strong motion recordings along the Mexican subduction zone”, Bulleting of the Seismological Society of America, 79 (6): 1697-717, 1989.
[11] N. M. Ambraseys, “Behavior of foundation materials during strong earthquakes”, Proceedings fourth European symposium on earthquake engineering, 1972.
[12] H. P. Hong, and E. Rosenblueth, “Model for generation of subduction earthquakes”, Earthquake Spectra, 4(3); 481-98, 1988.
[13] J. M. Jara, and E. Rosenblueth, “Probability distribution of times between subduction earthquakes”, Earthquake Spectra, 4(3); 499-529, 1988.
[14] K. Shimasaki, and T. Nakata, “Time-predictable recurrence for large earthquakes”, Geophysical Research Letters, 7:279-282, 19080.
[15] A. Kiremidjian, and T. Anagnos, “Stochastic slip predictable model for earthquake occurrence”, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 74: 739-55, 1984.
[16] R. V. Whitman, J. M. Biggs, J. Brennan III, C. A. Cornell, R. Y. de Neufville, and E. Vanmarcke, “Summary of methodology and pilot application”, Seismic decision analysis report no. 9, department of Civil engineering, MIT, 1973.
[17] G. Grandori, “Seismic zoning as a problem of optimization”, Proceedings of the 2nd international conference on structural safety and reliability, p. 613-24, 1977.
[18] J. M.Ferrito, J. M. “Economics of seismic design for new buildings”, Journal of Structural Engineering, ASCE; 110 (12): 2925-37, 1984.
[19] E. Rosenblueth, “What should we do with structural reliabilities”, Reliability and risk analysis in civil engineering. Proceedings of the 5th international conference on applications of statistics and probability in soil and structural engineering, 1987.
[20] E. Vargas, and J. M. Jara, “Influencia del coeficiente sísmico de diseño en el costo de edificios con marcos de concreto”, Memorias del VIII congreso nacional de ingeniería sísmica y VII congreso nacional de ingeniería estructural. Acapulco, Gro., nov, 1989.
[21] L. Esteva, O. Díaz, A.Terán and J. García, “Costos probables de daños causados por temblores en construcciones”. Internal Report 8750. Instituto de Ingeniería, UNAM, 1988.
[22] M. Ordaz, R. Meli, C. Montoya-Dulché,,L. Sánchez, and L. E. Pérez-Rocha, “Data base for seismic risk assessment in Mexico City” International symposium on earthquake disaster prevention, CENAPRED, pp 99-109, 1992.
[23] J. García-Pérez, “The value of risk reduction in optimum seismic design”, 15th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering, Lisboa, Portugal, 2012.
[24] E. J. Mishan, “Evaluation of life and limb: a theoretical approach”, Journal of Political Economy, 79: 4, 687-705, 1971.
[25] D. Usher, “An imputation to the measure of economic growth for changes in life expectancy”, Conference on research in income and wealth, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1971.
[26] E. Rosenblueth, “Optimum design for infrequent disturbances”, Proceedings of ASCE, Journal of the Structural Division, 102 (ST9), 1807-25, 1976.
[27] E. Rosenblueth, “Two-point estimates in probabilities”, Applied mathematical modelling, 5, 329-335, 1981.
[28] M. L. Cropper, and P. R. Portney, “Discounting human lives. Resources”, 108: 1-4, 1992.
[29] E. Rosenblueth, “Diseño óptimo en ingeniería sísmica”, X Congreso Nacional de Ingeniería sísmica. Puerto Vallarta México, 963-75, 1993.
[30] J. García-Pérez, “Seismic zoning for initial- and total-cost minimization”, Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics; 29:847-65, 2000.
[31] J. García-Pérez, F. Castellanos, O. Díaz, “Optimum seismic zoning for multiple types of structures”, Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics; 32, (5), 711-730, 2003.
[32] J. García-Pérez, and R. Riaño, “Optimum seismic zoning using an artificial neural network”, accepted for publication in Earthquake Spectra, may, 2015.
[33] J. García-Pérez, F. Castellanos, and O. Díaz, “Occupancy importance factor in earthquake engineering”, Engineering Structures, 27, 1625-32, 2005.