Search results for: Money demand function
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3144

Search results for: Money demand function

3084 Evaluation of Short-Term Load Forecasting Techniques Applied for Smart Micro Grids

Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

Abstract:

Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.

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3083 Subclasses of Bi-Univalent Functions Associated with Hohlov Operator

Authors: Rashidah Omar, Suzeini Abdul Halim, Aini Janteng

Abstract:

The coefficients estimate problem for Taylor-Maclaurin series is still an open problem especially for a function in the subclass of bi-univalent functions. A function f ϵ A is said to be bi-univalent in the open unit disk D if both f and f-1 are univalent in D. The symbol A denotes the class of all analytic functions f in D and it is normalized by the conditions f(0) = f’(0) – 1=0. The class of bi-univalent is denoted by  The subordination concept is used in determining second and third Taylor-Maclaurin coefficients. The upper bound for second and third coefficients is estimated for functions in the subclasses of bi-univalent functions which are subordinated to the function φ. An analytic function f is subordinate to an analytic function g if there is an analytic function w defined on D with w(0) = 0 and |w(z)| < 1 satisfying f(z) = g[w(z)]. In this paper, two subclasses of bi-univalent functions associated with Hohlov operator are introduced. The bound for second and third coefficients of functions in these subclasses is determined using subordination. The findings would generalize the previous related works of several earlier authors.

Keywords: Analytic functions, bi-univalent functions, Hohlov operator, subordination.

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3082 Potential of Energy Conservation of Daylight Linked Lighting System in India

Authors: Biswajit Biswas

Abstract:

Demand of energy is increasing faster than the generation. It leads shortage of power in all sectors of society. At peak hours this shortage is higher. Unless we utilize energy efficient technology, it is very difficult to minimize the shortage of energy. So energy efficiency program and energy conservation has an important role. Energy efficient technologies are cost intensive hence it is always not possible to implement in country like India. In the recent study, an educational building with operating hours from 10:00 a.m. to 05:00 p.m. has been selected to quantify the possibility of lighting energy conservation. As the operating hour is in daytime, integration of daylight with artificial lighting system will definitely reduce the lighting energy consumption. Moreover the initial investment has been given priority and hence the existing lighting installation was unaltered. An automatic controller has been designed which will be operated as a function of daylight through windows and the lighting system of the room will function accordingly. The result of the study of integrating daylight gave quite satisfactory for visual comfort as well as energy conservation.

Keywords: Lighting energy, energy efficiency, daylight, illumination, energy conservation.

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3081 Explicit Chain Homotopic Function to Compute Hochschild Homology of the Polynomial Algebra

Authors: Z. Altawallbeh

Abstract:

In this paper, an explicit homotopic function is constructed to compute the Hochschild homology of a finite dimensional free k-module V. Because the polynomial algebra is of course fundamental in the computation of the Hochschild homology HH and the cyclic homology CH of commutative algebras, we concentrate our work to compute HH of the polynomial algebra, by providing certain homotopic function.

Keywords: Exterior algebra, free resolution, free and projective modules, Hochschild homology, homotopic function, symmetric algebra.

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3080 Some Solitary Wave Solutions of Generalized Pochhammer-Chree Equation via Exp-function Method

Authors: Kourosh Parand, Jamal Amani Rad

Abstract:

In this paper, Exp-function method is used for some exact solitary solutions of the generalized Pochhammer-Chree equation. It has been shown that the Exp-function method, with the help of symbolic computation, provides a very effective and powerful mathematical tool for solving nonlinear partial differential equations. As a result, some exact solitary solutions are obtained. It is shown that the Exp-function method is direct, effective, succinct and can be used for many other nonlinear partial differential equations.

Keywords: Exp-function method, generalized Pochhammer- Chree equation, solitary wave solution, ODE's.

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3079 A New Approach to Solve Blasius Equation using Parameter Identification of Nonlinear Functions based on the Bees Algorithm (BA)

Authors: E. Assareh, M.A. Behrang, M. Ghalambaz, A.R. Noghrehabadi, A. Ghanbarzadeh

Abstract:

In this paper, a new approach is introduced to solve Blasius equation using parameter identification of a nonlinear function which is used as approximation function. Bees Algorithm (BA) is applied in order to find the adjustable parameters of approximation function regarding minimizing a fitness function including these parameters (i.e. adjustable parameters). These parameters are determined how the approximation function has to satisfy the boundary conditions. In order to demonstrate the presented method, the obtained results are compared with another numerical method. Present method can be easily extended to solve a wide range of problems.

Keywords: Bees Algorithm (BA); Approximate Solutions; Blasius Differential Equation.

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3078 Extremal Properties of Generalized Class of Close-to-convex Functions

Authors: Norlyda Mohamed, Daud Mohamad, Shaharuddin Cik Soh

Abstract:

Let Gα ,β (γ ,δ ) denote the class of function f (z), f (0) = f ′(0)−1= 0 which satisfied e δ {αf ′(z)+ βzf ′′(z)}> γ i Re in the open unit disk D = {z ∈ı : z < 1} for some α ∈ı (α ≠ 0) , β ∈ı and γ ∈ı (0 ≤γ <α ) where δ ≤ π and α cosδ −γ > 0 . In this paper, we determine some extremal properties including distortion theorem and argument of f ′( z ) .

Keywords: Argument of f ′(z) , Carathéodory Function, Closeto- convex Function, Distortion Theorem, Extremal Properties

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3077 Consumer Product Demand Forecasting based on Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine

Authors: Karin Kandananond

Abstract:

The nature of consumer products causes the difficulty in forecasting the future demands and the accuracy of the forecasts significantly affects the overall performance of the supply chain system. In this study, two data mining methods, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), were utilized to predict the demand of consumer products. The training data used was the actual demand of six different products from a consumer product company in Thailand. The results indicated that SVM had a better forecast quality (in term of MAPE) than ANN in every category of products. Moreover, another important finding was the margin difference of MAPE from these two methods was significantly high when the data was highly correlated.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Bullwhip effect, Consumer products, Demand forecasting, Supply chain, Support vector machine (SVM).

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3076 Housing Loans Determinants before and during Financial Crisis

Authors: Josip Visković, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Ines Ivić

Abstract:

Housing loans play an important role in CEE countries’ economies. This fact is based on their share in total loans to households and their importance for economic activity and growth in CEE countries. Therefore, it is important to find out key determinants of housing loans demand in these countries. The aim of this study is to research and analyze the determinants of the demand for housing loans in Croatia. In this regard, the effect of economic activity, loan terms and real estate prices were analyzed. Also, the aim of this study is to find out what motivates people to take housing loans. Therefore, primarily empirical study was conducted among the Croatian residents. The results show that demand for housing loans is positively affected by economic growth, higher personal income and flexible loan terms, while it is negatively affected by interest rate rise.

Keywords: CEE countries, Croatia, demand determinants, housing loans.

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3075 The Study of the Discrete Risk Model with Random Income

Authors: Peichen Zhao

Abstract:

In this paper, we extend the compound binomial model to the case where the premium income process, based on a binomial process, is no longer a linear function. First, a mathematically recursive formula is derived for non ruin probability, and then, we examine the expected discounted penalty function, satisfy a defect renewal equation. Third, the asymptotic estimate for the expected discounted penalty function is then given. Finally, we give two examples of ruin quantities to illustrate applications of the recursive formula and the asymptotic estimate for penalty function.

Keywords: Discounted penalty function, compound binomial process, recursive formula, discrete renewal equation, asymptotic estimate.

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3074 Clustering Unstructured Text Documents Using Fading Function

Authors: Pallav Roxy, Durga Toshniwal

Abstract:

Clustering unstructured text documents is an important issue in data mining community and has a number of applications such as document archive filtering, document organization and topic detection and subject tracing. In the real world, some of the already clustered documents may not be of importance while new documents of more significance may evolve. Most of the work done so far in clustering unstructured text documents overlooks this aspect of clustering. This paper, addresses this issue by using the Fading Function. The unstructured text documents are clustered. And for each cluster a statistics structure called Cluster Profile (CP) is implemented. The cluster profile incorporates the Fading Function. This Fading Function keeps an account of the time-dependent importance of the cluster. The work proposes a novel algorithm Clustering n-ary Merge Algorithm (CnMA) for unstructured text documents, that uses Cluster Profile and Fading Function. Experimental results illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed technique are also included.

Keywords: Clustering, Text Mining, Unstructured TextDocuments, Fading Function.

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3073 A Dual Fitness Function Genetic Algorithm: Application on Deterministic Identical Machine Scheduling

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan, Gürsel A. Süer

Abstract:

In this paper a genetic algorithm (GA) with dual-fitness function is proposed and applied to solve the deterministic identical machine scheduling problem. The mating fitness function value was used to determine the mating for chromosomes, while the selection fitness function value was used to determine their survivals. The performance of this algorithm was tested on deterministic identical machine scheduling using simulated data. The results obtained from the proposed GA were compared with classical GA and integer programming (IP). Results showed that dual-fitness function GA outperformed the classical single-fitness function GA with statistical significance for large problems and was competitive to IP, particularly when large size problems were used.

Keywords: Machine scheduling, Genetic algorithms, Due dates, Number of tardy jobs, Number of early jobs, Integer programming, Dual Fitness functions.

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3072 Water Demand Prediction for Touristic Mecca City in Saudi Arabia using Neural Networks

Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali

Abstract:

Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.

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3071 Seismic Assessment of Old Existing RC Buildings with Masonry Infill in Madinah as per ASCE

Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

Abstract:

An existing RC building in Madinah is seismically evaluated with and without infill wall. Four model systems have been considered i.e. model I (no infill), model IIA (strut infill-update from field test), model IIB (strut infill- ASCE/SEI 41) and model IIC (strut infill-Soft storey- ASCE/SEI 41). Three dimensional pushover analyses have been carried out using SAP2000 software incorporating inelastic material behavior for concrete, steel and infill walls. Infill wall has been modeled as equivalent strut according to suggested equation matching field test measurements and to the ASCE/SEI 41 equation. The effect of building modeling on the performance point as well as capacity and demand spectra due to EQ design spectrum function in Madinah area has been investigated. The response modification factor (R) for the 5 story RC building is evaluated from capacity and demand spectra (ATC-40) for the studied models. The results are summarized and discussed.

Keywords: Infill wall, Pushover Analysis, Response Modification Factor, Seismic Assessment.

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3070 Intelligent Caching in on-demand Routing Protocol for Mobile Adhoc Networks

Authors: Shobha.K.R., K. Rajanikanth

Abstract:

An on-demand routing protocol for wireless ad hoc networks is one that searches for and attempts to discover a route to some destination node only when a sending node originates a data packet addressed to that node. In order to avoid the need for such a route discovery to be performed before each data packet is sent, such routing protocols must cache routes previously discovered. This paper presents an analysis of the effect of intelligent caching in a non clustered network, using on-demand routing protocols in wireless ad hoc networks. The analysis carried out is based on the Dynamic Source Routing protocol (DSR), which operates entirely on-demand. DSR uses the cache in every node to save the paths that are learnt during route discovery procedure. In this implementation, caching these paths only at intermediate nodes and using the paths from these caches when required is tried. This technique helps in storing more number of routes that are learnt without erasing the entries in the cache, to store a new route that is learnt. The simulation results on DSR have shown that this technique drastically increases the available memory for caching the routes discovered without affecting the performance of the DSR routing protocol in any way, except for a small increase in end to end delay.

Keywords: Caching, DSR, on demand routing, MANET.

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3069 Two-Level Identification of HVAC Consumers for Demand Response Potential Estimation Based on Setpoint Change

Authors: M. Naserian, M. Jooshaki, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, M. Hossein Mohammadi Sanjani, A. Oraee

Abstract:

In recent years, the development of communication infrastructure and smart meters have facilitated the utilization of demand-side resources which can enhance stability and economic efficiency of power systems. Direct load control programs can play an important role in the utilization of demand-side resources in the residential sector. However, investments required for installing control equipment can be a limiting factor in the development of such demand response programs. Thus, selection of consumers with higher potentials is crucial to the success of a direct load control program. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which due to the heat capacity of buildings feature relatively high flexibility, make up a major part of household consumption. Considering that the consumption of HVAC systems depends highly on the ambient temperature and bearing in mind the high investments required for control systems enabling direct load control demand response programs, in this paper, a solution is presented to uncover consumers with high air conditioner demand among a large number of consumers and to measure the demand response potential of such consumers. This can pave the way for estimating the investments needed for the implementation of direct load control programs for residential HVAC systems and for estimating the demand response potentials in a distribution system. In doing so, we first cluster consumers into several groups based on the correlation coefficients between hourly consumption data and hourly temperature data using K-means algorithm. Then, by applying a recent algorithm to the hourly consumption and temperature data, consumers with high air conditioner consumption are identified. Finally, demand response potential of such consumers is estimated based on the equivalent desired temperature setpoint changes.

Keywords: Data-driven analysis, demand response, direct load control, HVAC system.

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3068 Function of miR-125b in Zebrafish Neurogenesis

Authors: Minh T. N. Le, Cathleen Teh, Ng Shyh-Chang, Vladimir Korzh, Harvey F. Lodish, Bing Lim

Abstract:

MicroRNAs are an important class of gene expression regulators that are involved in many biological processes including embryogenesis. miR-125b is a conserved microRNA that is enriched in the nervous system. We have previously reported the function of miR-125b in neuronal differentiation of human cell lines. We also discovered the function of miR-125b in regulating p53 in human and zebrafish. Here we further characterize the brain defects in zebrafish embryos injected with morpholinos against miR-125b. Our data confirm the essential role of miR-125b in brain morphogenesis particularly in maintaining the balance between proliferation, cell death and differentiation. We identified lunatic fringe (lfng) as an additional target of miR-125b in human and zebrafish and suggest that lfng may mediate the function of miR-125b in neurogenesis. Together, this report reveals new insights into the function of miR- 125b during neural development of zebrafish.

Keywords: microRNA, miR-125b, neurogenesis, zebrafish.

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3067 A Practical and Efficient Evaluation Function for 3D Model Based Vehicle Matching

Authors: Yuan Zheng

Abstract:

3D model-based vehicle matching provides a new way for vehicle recognition, localization and tracking. Its key is to construct an evaluation function, also called fitness function, to measure the degree of vehicle matching. The existing fitness functions often poorly perform when the clutter and occlusion exist in traffic scenarios. In this paper, we present a practical and efficient fitness function. Unlike the existing evaluation functions, the proposed fitness function is to study the vehicle matching problem from both local and global perspectives, which exploits the pixel gradient information as well as the silhouette information. In view of the discrepancy between 3D vehicle model and real vehicle, a weighting strategy is introduced to differently treat the fitting of the model’s wireframes. Additionally, a normalization operation for the model’s projection is performed to improve the accuracy of the matching. Experimental results on real traffic videos reveal that the proposed fitness function is efficient and robust to the cluttered background and partial occlusion.

Keywords: 3D-2D matching, fitness function, 3D vehicle model, local image gradient, silhouette information.

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3066 Smart Grid Simulator

Authors: Andrei Ursachi, Dorin Bordeasu

Abstract:

The Smart Grid Simulator is a computer software based on advance algorithms which has as the main purpose to lower the energy bill in the most optimized price efficient way as possible for private households, companies or energy providers. It combines the energy provided by a number of solar modules and wind turbines with the consumption of one household or a cluster of nearby households and information regarding weather conditions and energy prices in order to predict the amount of energy that can be produced by renewable energy sources and the amount of energy that will be bought from the distributor for the following day. The user of the system will not only be able to minimize his expenditures on energy factures, but also he will be informed about his hourly consumption, electricity prices fluctuation and money spent for energy bought as well as how much money he saved each day and since he installed the system. The paper outlines the algorithm that supports the Smart Grid Simulator idea and presents preliminary test results that supports the discussion and implementation of the system.

Keywords: Applied Science, Renewable energy sources, Smart Grid, Sustainable energy.

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3065 Energy Aware Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector Protocol for QoS Routing

Authors: J. Seetaram, P. Satish Kumar

Abstract:

Mobile Adhoc Networks (MANETs) are infrastructure-less, dynamic network of collections of wireless mobile nodes communicating with each other without any centralized authority. A MANET is a mobile device of interconnections through wireless links, forming a dynamic topology. Routing protocols have a big role in data transmission across a network. Routing protocols, two major classifications are unipath and multipath. This study evaluates performance of an on-demand multipath routing protocol named Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV). This study proposes Energy Aware AOMDV (EAAOMDV) an extension of AOMDV which decreases energy consumed on a route.

Keywords: Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET), unipath, multipath, Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV).

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3064 An Estimation of Rice Output Supply Response in Sierra Leone: A Nerlovian Model Approach

Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Issa Fofana, Brima Gegbe, Tamba I. Isaac

Abstract:

Rice grain is Sierra Leone’s staple food and the nation imports over 120,000 metric tons annually due to a shortfall in its cultivation. Thus, the insufficient level of the crop's cultivation in Sierra Leone is caused by many problems and this led to the endlessly widening supply and demand for the crop within the country. Consequently, this has instigated the government to spend huge money on the importation of this grain that would have been otherwise cultivated domestically at a cheaper cost. Hence, this research attempts to explore the response of rice supply with respect to its demand in Sierra Leone within the period 1980-2010. The Nerlovian adjustment model to the Sierra Leone rice data set within the period 1980-2010 was used. The estimated trend equations revealed that time had significant effect on output, productivity (yield) and area (acreage) of rice grain within the period 1980-2010 and this occurred generally at the 1% level of significance. The results showed that, almost the entire growth in output had the tendency to increase in the area cultivated to the crop. The time trend variable that was included for government policy intervention showed an insignificant effect on all the variables considered in this research. Therefore, both the short-run and long-run price response was inelastic since all their values were less than one. From the findings above, immediate actions that will lead to productivity growth in rice cultivation are required. To achieve the above, the responsible agencies should provide extension service schemes to farmers as well as motivating them on the adoption of modern rice varieties and technology in their rice cultivation ventures.

Keywords: Nerlovian adjustment model, price elasticities, Sierra Leone, Trend equations.

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3063 Production Planning for Animal Food Industry under Demand Uncertainty

Authors: Pirom Thangchitpianpol, Suttipong Jumroonrut

Abstract:

This research investigates the distribution of food demand for animal food and the optimum amount of that food production at minimum cost. The data consist of customer purchase orders for the food of laying hens, price of food for laying hens, cost per unit for the food inventory, cost related to food of laying hens in which the food is out of stock, such as fine, overtime, urgent purchase for material. They were collected from January, 1990 to December, 2013 from a factory in Nakhonratchasima province. The collected data are analyzed in order to explore the distribution of the monthly food demand for the laying hens and to see the rate of inventory per unit. The results are used in a stochastic linear programming model for aggregate planning in which the optimum production or minimum cost could be obtained. Programming algorithms in MATLAB and tools in Linprog software are used to get the solution. The distribution of the food demand for laying hens and the random numbers are used in the model. The study shows that the distribution of monthly food demand for laying has a normal distribution, the monthly average amount (unit: 30 kg) of production from January to December. The minimum total cost average for 12 months is Baht 62,329,181.77. Therefore, the production planning can reduce the cost by 14.64% from real cost.

Keywords: Animal food, Stochastic linear programming, Production planning, Demand Uncertainty.

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3062 Monte Carlo Analysis and Fuzzy Sets for Uncertainty Propagation in SIS Performance Assessment

Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

Abstract:

The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFDavg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

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3061 Application of ANN for Estimation of Power Demand of Villages in Sulaymaniyah Governorate

Authors: A. Majeed, P. Ali

Abstract:

Before designing an electrical system, the estimation of load is necessary for unit sizing and demand-generation balancing. The system could be a stand-alone system for a village or grid connected or integrated renewable energy to grid connection, especially as there are non–electrified villages in developing countries. In the classical model, the energy demand was found by estimating the household appliances multiplied with the amount of their rating and the duration of their operation, but in this paper, information exists for electrified villages could be used to predict the demand, as villages almost have the same life style. This paper describes a method used to predict the average energy consumed in each two months for every consumer living in a village by Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The input data are collected using a regional survey for samples of consumers representing typical types of different living, household appliances and energy consumption by a list of information, and the output data are collected from administration office of Piramagrun for each corresponding consumer. The result of this study shows that the average demand for different consumers from four villages in different months throughout the year is approximately 12 kWh/day, this model estimates the average demand/day for every consumer with a mean absolute percent error of 11.8%, and MathWorks software package MATLAB version 7.6.0 that contains and facilitate Neural Network Toolbox was used.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, load estimation, regional survey, rural electrification.

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3060 Defuzzification of Periodic Membership Function on Circular Coordinates

Authors: Takashi Mitsuishi, Koji Saigusa

Abstract:

This paper presents circular polar coordinates transformation of periodic fuzzy membership function. The purpose is identification of domain of periodic membership functions in consequent part of IF-THEN rules. Proposed methods in this paper remove complicatedness concerning domain of periodic membership function from defuzzification in fuzzy approximate reasoning. Defuzzification on circular polar coordinates is also proposed.

Keywords: Defuzzification, periodic membership function, polar coordinates transformation.

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3059 Composite Distributed Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning Considering Security

Authors: Amir Lotfi, Seyed Hamid Hosseini

Abstract:

During the recent past, due to the increase of electrical energy demand and governmental resources constraints in creating additional capacity in the generation, transmission, and distribution, privatization, and restructuring in electrical industry have been considered. So, in most of the countries, different parts of electrical industry like generation, transmission, and distribution have been separated in order to create competition. Considering these changes, environmental issues, energy growth, investment of private equity in energy generation units and difficulties of transmission lines expansion, distributed generation (DG) units have been used in power systems. Moreover, reduction in the need for transmission and distribution, the increase of reliability, improvement of power quality, and reduction of power loss have caused DG to be placed in power systems. On the other hand, considering low liquidity need, private investors tend to spend their money for DGs. In this project, the main goal is to offer an algorithm for planning and placing DGs in order to reduce the need for transmission and distribution network.

Keywords: Planning, transmission, distributed generation, power security, power systems.

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3058 Mobile Robot Path Planning Utilizing Probability Recursive Function

Authors: Ethar H. Khalil, Bahaa I. Kazem

Abstract:

In this work a software simulation model has been proposed for two driven wheels mobile robot path planning; that can navigate in dynamic environment with static distributed obstacles. The work involves utilizing Bezier curve method in a proposed N order matrix form; for engineering the mobile robot path. The Bezier curve drawbacks in this field have been diagnosed. Two directions: Up and Right function has been proposed; Probability Recursive Function (PRF) to overcome those drawbacks. PRF functionality has been developed through a proposed; obstacle detection function, optimization function which has the capability of prediction the optimum path without comparison between all feasible paths, and N order Bezier curve function that ensures the drawing of the obtained path. The simulation results that have been taken showed; the mobile robot travels successfully from starting point and reaching its goal point. All obstacles that are located in its way have been avoided. This navigation is being done successfully using the proposed PRF techniques.

Keywords: Mobile robot, path planning, Bezier curve.

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3057 An Autonomous Collaborative Forecasting System Implementation – The First Step towards Successful CPFR System

Authors: Chi-Fang Huang, Yun-Shiow Chen, Yun-Kung Chung

Abstract:

In the past decade, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been regarded as an instrument for problem-solving and decision-making; indeed, they have already done with a substantial efficiency and effectiveness improvement in industries and businesses. In this paper, the Back-Propagation neural Networks (BPNs) will be modulated to demonstrate the performance of the collaborative forecasting (CF) function of a Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR®) system. CPFR functions the balance between the sufficient product supply and the necessary customer demand in a Supply and Demand Chain (SDC). Several classical standard BPN will be grouped, collaborated and exploited for the easy implementation of the proposed modular ANN framework based on the topology of a SDC. Each individual BPN is applied as a modular tool to perform the task of forecasting SKUs (Stock-Keeping Units) levels that are managed and supervised at a POS (point of sale), a wholesaler, and a manufacturer in an SDC. The proposed modular BPN-based CF system will be exemplified and experimentally verified using lots of datasets of the simulated SDC. The experimental results showed that a complex CF problem can be divided into a group of simpler sub-problems based on the single independent trading partners distributed over SDC, and its SKU forecasting accuracy was satisfied when the system forecasted values compared to the original simulated SDC data. The primary task of implementing an autonomous CF involves the study of supervised ANN learning methodology which aims at making “knowledgeable" decision for the best SKU sales plan and stocks management.

Keywords: CPFR, artificial neural networks, global logistics, supply and demand chain.

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3056 A Novel Deinterlacing Algorithm Based on Adaptive Polynomial Interpolation

Authors: Seung-Won Jung, Hye-Soo Kim, Le Thanh Ha, Seung-Jin Baek, Sung-Jea Ko

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel deinterlacing algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm approximates the distribution of the luminance into a polynomial function. Instead of using one polynomial function for all pixels, different polynomial functions are used for the uniform, texture, and directional edge regions. The function coefficients for each region are computed by matrix multiplications. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method performs better than the conventional algorithms.

Keywords: Deinterlacing, polynomial interpolation.

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3055 Application of GM (1, 1) Model Group Based on Recursive Solution in China's Energy Demand Forecasting

Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

Abstract:

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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