Search results for: spatial distribution

Authors: Adrian O’Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

Abstract:

Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: Empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient.

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Authors: Satoru Kaneko, Takeshi Ito, Kensuke Akiyama, Manabu Yasui, Chihiro Kato, Satomi Tanaka, Yasuo Hirabayashi, Takeshi Ozawa, Akira Matsuno, Takashi Nire, Hiroshi Funakubo, Mamoru Yoshimoto

Abstract:

As application of re-activation of backside on power device Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT), laser annealing was employed to irradiate amorphous silicon substrate, and resistivities were measured using four point probe measurement. For annealing the amorphous silicon two lasers were used at wavelength of visible green (532 nm) together with Infrared (793 nm). While the green laser efficiently increased temperature at top surface the Infrared laser reached more deep inside and was effective for melting the top surface. A finite element method was employed to evaluate time dependent thermal distribution in silicon substrate.

Keywords: laser, annealing, silicon, recrystallization, thermal distribution, resistivity, finite element method, absorption, melting point, latent heat of fusion.

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Authors: Miika Toivanen, Jouko Lampinen

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This paper presents an online method that learns the corresponding points of an object from un-annotated grayscale images containing instances of the object. In the first image being processed, an ensemble of node points is automatically selected which is matched in the subsequent images. A Bayesian posterior distribution for the locations of the nodes in the images is formed. The likelihood is formed from Gabor responses and the prior assumes the mean shape of the node ensemble to be similar in a translation and scale free space. An association model is applied for separating the object nodes and background nodes. The posterior distribution is sampled with Sequential Monte Carlo method. The matched object nodes are inferred to be the corresponding points of the object instances. The results show that our system matches the object nodes as accurately as other methods that train the model with annotated training images.

Keywords: Bayesian modeling, Gabor filters, Online learning, Sequential Monte Carlo.

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Authors: J. X. Dong, C. J. An, Z. Chen, E. H. Owens, M. C. Boufadel, E. Taylor, K. Lee

Abstract:

Shorelines are vulnerable to significant environmental impacts from oil spills. Stranded oil can cause potential short- to long-term detrimental effects along beaches that include injuries to ecosystem, socio-economic and cultural resources. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling approach is developed to evaluate the fate and transport of spilled oil for hypothetical oiled shoreline cases under various combinations of beach geomorphology and environmental conditions. The developed model estimates the spatial and temporal distribution of spilled oil for the various test conditions, using the finite volume method and considering the physical transport (dispersion and advection), sinks, and sorption processes. The model includes a user-friendly interface for data input on variables such as beach properties, environmental conditions, and physical-chemical properties of spilled oil. An experimental meso-scale tank design was used to test the developed model for dissolved petroleum hydrocarbon within shorelines. The simulated results for effects of different sediment substrates, oil types, and shoreline features for the transport of spilled oil are comparable to that obtained with a commercially available model. Results show that the properties of substrates and the oil removal by shoreline effects have significant impacts on oil transport in the beach area. Sensitivity analysis, through the application of the one-step-at-a-time method (OAT), for the 3D model identified hydraulic conductivity as the most sensitive parameter. The 3D numerical model allows users to examine the behavior of oil on and within beaches, assess potential environmental impacts, and provide technical support for decisions related to shoreline clean-up operations.

Keywords: dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons, environmental multimedia model, finite volume method, FVM, sensitivity analysis, total petroleum hydrocarbons, TPH

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Authors: Doraid Dalalah

Abstract:

A topologically oriented neural network is very efficient for real-time path planning for a mobile robot in changing environments. When using a recurrent neural network for this purpose and with the combination of the partial differential equation of heat transfer and the distributed potential concept of the network, the problem of obstacle avoidance of trajectory planning for a moving robot can be efficiently solved. The related dimensional network represents the state variables and the topology of the robot's working space. In this paper two approaches to problem solution are proposed. The first approach relies on the potential distribution of attraction distributed around the moving target, acting as a unique local extreme in the net, with the gradient of the state variables directing the current flow toward the source of the potential heat. The second approach considers two attractive and repulsive potential sources to decrease the time of potential distribution. Computer simulations have been carried out to interrogate the performance of the proposed approaches.

Keywords: Mobile robot, Path Planning, Mesh, Potential field.

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Authors: F.Ebrahimi, A.Rastgo

Abstract:

Analytical investigation of the free vibration behavior of circular functionally graded (FG) plates integrated with two uniformly distributed actuator layers made of piezoelectric (PZT4) material on the top and bottom surfaces of the circular FG plate based on the classical plate theory (CPT) is presented in this paper. The material properties of the functionally graded substrate plate are assumed to be graded in the thickness direction according to the power-law distribution in terms of the volume fractions of the constituents and the distribution of electric potential field along the thickness direction of piezoelectric layers is simulated by a quadratic function. The differential equations of motion are solved analytically for clamped edge boundary condition of the plate. The detailed mathematical derivations are presented and Numerical investigations are performed for FG plates with two surface-bonded piezoelectric layers. Emphasis is placed on investigating the effect of varying the gradient index of FG plate on the free vibration characteristics of the structure. The results are verified by those obtained from threedimensional finite element analyses.

Keywords: Circular plate, CPT, Functionally graded, Piezoelectric.

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Authors: M. O. Hamzah, M. R. M. Hasan

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Binder drainage test is widely used to set an upper limit to the design binder content of porous asphalt. However, the presence of high amount of fine particles in the drained binder may affect the accuracy of the test result. This paper presents a study to characterize the composition and particle size distribution of fine particles accumulated in the drained binder. Fine aggregates and filler in the drained binder were extracted using a suitable solvent. Then, wet and dry sieve analysis was carried out to identify the actual composition of the extracted fine aggregates and filler. From the results, almost half of the drained binder consisted of fine aggregates and this significantly affects the accuracy of the design binder content of porous asphalt mix. This simple finding highlights the importance of taking into account the presence of fine aggregates in the calculation of drained binder.

Keywords: Porous asphalt, Binder drainage test, Drained binder, Fine particle proportion

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Authors: D. Benasciutti, M. Gallina, M. Gh. Munteanu, F. Flumian

Abstract:

This paper presents a numerical approach for the static and dynamic analysis of hydrodynamic radial journal bearings. In the first part, the effect of shaft and housing deformability on pressure distribution within oil film is investigated. An iterative algorithm that couples Reynolds equation with a plane finite elements (FE) structural model is solved. Viscosity-to-pressure dependency (Vogel- Barus equation) is also included. The deformed lubrication gap and the overall stress state are obtained. Numerical results are presented with reference to a typical journal bearing configuration at two different inlet oil temperatures. Obtained results show the great influence of bearing components structural deformation on oil pressure distribution, compared with results for ideally rigid components. In the second part, a numerical approach based on perturbation method is used to compute stiffness and damping matrices, which characterize the journal bearing dynamic behavior.

Keywords: Journal bearing, finite elements, deformation, dynamic analysis

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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Authors: Yasaman Tohidi, Shidvash Vakilipour, Saeed Ebadi Tavallaee, Shahin Vakilipoor Takaloo, Hossein Amiri

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The numerical modeling is performed to study the effects of N₂ addition to the fuel stream on the flame structure and temperature distribution of methane-air swirl diffusion flames with different swirl intensities. The Open source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) has been utilized as the computational tool. Flamelet approach along with modified k-ε model is employed to model the flame characteristics.  The results indicate that the presence of N₂ in the fuel stream leads to the flame temperature reduction. By increasing of swirl intensity, the flame structure changes significantly. The flame has a conical shape in low swirl intensity; however, it has an hour glass-shape with a shorter length in high swirl intensity. The effects of N₂ dilution decrease the flame length in all swirl intensities; however, the rate of reduction is more noticeable in low swirl intensity.

Keywords: Swirl diffusion flame, N2 dilution, OpenFOAM, Swirl intensity.

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Authors: Petar Sarajcev, Josip Vasilj, Damir Jakus

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This paper presents a novel statistical description of the counterpoise effective length due to lightning surges, where the (impulse) effective length had been obtained by means of regressive formulas applied to the transient simulation results. The effective length is described in terms of a statistical distribution function, from which median, mean, variance, and other parameters of interest could be readily obtained. The influence of lightning current amplitude, lightning front duration, and soil resistivity on the effective length has been accounted for, assuming statistical nature of these parameters. A method for determining the optimal counterpoise length, in terms of the statistical impulse effective length, is also presented. It is based on estimating the number of dangerous events associated with lightning strikes. Proposed statistical description and the associated method provide valuable information which could aid the design engineer in optimising physical lengths of counterpoises in different grounding arrangements and soil resistivity situations.

Keywords: Counterpoise, Grounding conductor, Effective length, Lightning, Monte Carlo method, Statistical distribution.

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Authors: Aresh Vikram Singh, Sarika Nagar

Abstract:

The tamarind based resin containing hydroxypropane sulphonic acid groups has been synthesized and their adsorption behavior for heavy metal ions has been investigated using batch and column experiments. The hydroxypropane sulphonic acid group has been incorporated onto tamarind by a modified Porath's method of functionalisation of polysaccharides. The tamarind hydroxypropane sulphonic acid (THPSA) resin can selectively remove of heavy metal ions, which are contained in industrial wastewater. The THPSA resin was characterized by FTIR and thermogravimetric analysis. The effects of various adsorption conditions, such as pH, treatment time and adsorbent dose were also investigated. The optimum adsorption condition was found at pH 6, 120 minutes of equilibrium time and 0.1 gram of resin dose. The orders of distribution coefficient values were determined.

Keywords: Distribution coefficient, industrial wastewater, polysaccharides, tamarind hydroxypropane sulphonic acid resin, thermogravimetric analysis.

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Authors: Toshihiko Sasama, Takahide Yanaka, Kazunori Sugahara, Hiroshi Masuyama

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In order to monitor for traffic traversal, sensors can be deployed to perform collaborative target detection. Such a sensor network achieves a certain level of detection performance with the associated costs of deployment and routing protocol. This paper addresses these two points of sensor deployment and routing algorithm in the situation where the absolute quantity of sensors or total energy becomes insufficient. This discussion on the best deployment system concluded that two kinds of deployments; Normal and Power law distributions, show 6 and 3 times longer than Random distribution in the duration of coverage, respectively. The other discussion on routing algorithm to achieve good performance in each deployment system was also addressed. This discussion concluded that, in place of the traditional algorithm, a new algorithm can extend the time of coverage duration by 4 times in a Normal distribution, and in the circumstance where every deployed sensor operates as a binary model.

Keywords: binary sensor, coverage rate, power energy consumption, routing algorithm, sensor deployment

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Authors: J.C. Umavathi

Abstract:

The linear stability of nanofluid convection in a horizontal porous layer is examined theoretically when the walls of the porous layer are subjected to time-periodic temperature modulation. The model used for the nanofluid incorporates the effects of Brownian motion and thermopherosis, while the Darcy model is used for the porous medium. The analysis revels that for a typical nanofluid (with large Lewis number) the prime effect of the nanofluids is via a buoyancy effect coupled with the conservation of nanoparticles. The contribution of nanoparticles to the thermal energy equation being a second-order effect. It is found that the critical thermal Rayleigh number can be found reduced or decreased by a substantial amount, depending on whether the basic nanoparticle distribution is top-heavy or bottom-heavy. Oscillatory instability is possible in the case of a bottom-heavy nanoparticle distribution, phase angle and frequency of modulation.

Keywords: Brownian motion and thermophoresis, Porous medium, Nanofluid, Natural convection, Thermal modulation.

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Authors: Bogusław Schreyer

Abstract:

The paper enquires on the two methods of the wheeled robot braking torque control. Those two methods are applied when the adhesion coefficient under left side wheels is different from the adhesion coefficient under the right side wheels. In case of the select-low (SL) method the braking torque on both wheels is controlled by the signals originating from the wheels on the side of the lower adhesion. In the select-high (SH) method the torque is controlled by the signals originating from the wheels on the side of the higher adhesion. The SL method is securing stable and secure robot behaviors during the braking process. However, the efficiency of this method is relatively low. The SH method is more efficient in terms of time and braking distance but in some situations may cause wheels blocking. It is important to monitor the velocity of all wheels and then take a decision about the braking torque distribution accordingly. In case of the SH method the braking torque slope may require significant decrease in order to avoid wheel blocking.

Keywords: Select-high method, select-low method, torque distribution, wheeled robot.

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Authors: Yiqiong Yuan, Jun Sun, Dongmei Zhou, Jianan Sun

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In this paper, we presented a Multi-Objective Random Drift Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (MORDPSO-CD) based on RDPSO and crowding distance sorting to improve the convergence and distribution with less computation cost. MORDPSO-CD makes the most of RDPSO to approach the true Pareto optimal solutions fast. We adopt the crowding distance sorting technique to update and maintain the archived optimal solutions. Introducing the crowding distance technique into MORDPSO can make the leader particles find the true Pareto solution ultimately. The simulation results reveal that the proposed algorithm has better convergence and distribution.

Keywords: Multi-objective optimization, random drift particle swarm optimization, crowding distance, Pareto optimal solution.

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Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

Abstract:

The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: Functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity.

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Authors: Nursyafiqah Abdul Kahar, Niraku Rosmawati Ahmad, Hisham Mohamad, Siti Nuruljannah Mohd Marzuki

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Assessment of geotechnical properties of the subsoil is necessary for generating relevant input for the design and construction of a foundation. It is significant for the future development in the area. The focus of this research is to investigate the preliminary geotechnical properties of the uncemented sandstone from Kati formation at Puncak Iskandar, Seri Iskandar. A series of basic soil tests, oedometer and direct shear box tests were carried out to obtain the soil parameters. The uncemented sandstone of Kati Formation was found to have well-graded and poorly graded sand distribution, depending on the location where the samples were obtained. The sand grains distribution was in a range of 82%-100% while, the specific gravity of the uncemented sandstone is in the range 2.65-2.86. The preconsolidation pressure for USB3 was 990 kPa indicating that the sandstone at USB3 sample had undergone 990 kPa of overburden pressure. The angle of friction for uncemented sandstone was ranging between 23.34°-32.92°.

Keywords: Geotechnical properties, Kati formation, uncemented sandstone, oedometer test, shear box test.

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Authors: Abdullah Y. Al-Hossain

Abstract:

This paper considers inference under progressive type II censoring with a compound Rayleigh failure time distribution. The maximum likelihood (ML), and Bayes methods are used for estimating the unknown parameters as well as some lifetime parameters, namely reliability and hazard functions. We obtained Bayes estimators using the conjugate priors for two shape and scale parameters. When the two parameters are unknown, the closed-form expressions of the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained. We use Lindley.s approximation to compute the Bayes estimates. Another Bayes estimator has been obtained based on continuous-discrete joint prior for the unknown parameters. An example with the real data is discussed to illustrate the proposed method. Finally, we made comparisons between these estimators and the maximum likelihood estimators using a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Keywords: Progressive type II censoring, compound Rayleigh failure time distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, Bayes estimation, Lindley's approximation method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Y. Harold Robinson, M. Rajaram

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Wireless mesh networking is rapidly gaining in popularity with a variety of users: from municipalities to enterprises, from telecom service providers to public safety and military organizations. This increasing popularity is based on two basic facts: ease of deployment and increase in network capacity expressed in bandwidth per footage; WMNs do not rely on any fixed infrastructure. Many efforts have been used to maximizing throughput of the network in a multi-channel multi-radio wireless mesh network. Current approaches are purely based on either static or dynamic channel allocation approaches. In this paper, we use a hybrid multichannel multi radio wireless mesh networking architecture, where static and dynamic interfaces are built in the nodes. Dynamic Adaptive Channel Allocation protocol (DACA), it considers optimization for both throughput and delay in the channel allocation. The assignment of the channel has been allocated to be codependent with the routing problem in the wireless mesh network and that should be based on passage flow on every link. Temporal and spatial relationship rises to re compute the channel assignment every time when the pattern changes in mesh network, channel assignment algorithms assign channels in network. In this paper a computing path which captures the available path bandwidth is the proposed information and the proficient routing protocol based on the new path which provides both static and dynamic links. The consistency property guarantees that each node makes an appropriate packet forwarding decision and balancing the control usage of the network, so that a data packet will traverse through the right path.

Keywords: Wireless mesh network, spatial time division multiple access, hybrid topology, timeslot allocation.

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Authors: W. Intagun, T. Khamdaeng, P. Prom-ngarm, N. Panyoyai

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Biochar has been used as a soil amendment since it has high porous structure and has proper nutrients and chemical properties for plants. Product yields produced from biochar kiln are dependent on process parameters and kiln types used. The objective of this research is to investigate the effect of core puncture diameter on biochar kiln efficiency, i.e., yields of biochar and produced gas. Corncobs were used as raw material to produce biochar. Briquettes from agricultural wastes were used as fuel. Each treatment was performed by changing the core puncture diameter. From the experiment, it is revealed that the yield of biochar at the core puncture diameter of 3.18 mm, 4.76 mm, and 6.35 mm was 10.62 wt. %, 24.12 wt. %, and 12.24 wt. %, of total solid yields, respectively. The yield of produced gas increased with increasing the core puncture diameter. The maximum percentage by weight of the yield of produced gas was 81.53 wt. % which was found at the core puncture diameter of 6.35 mm. The core puncture diameter was furthermore found to affect the temperature distribution inside the kiln and its thermal efficiency. In conclusion, the high efficient biochar kiln can be designed and constructed by using the proper core puncture diameter.

Keywords: Anila stove, biochar, soil conditioning materials, temperature distribution.

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Authors: Mohd Zamri Osman, Mohd Aizaini Maarof, Mohd Foad Rohani

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Human skin detection recognized as the primary step in most of the applications such as face detection, illicit image filtering, hand recognition and video surveillance. The performance of any skin detection applications greatly relies on the two components: feature extraction and classification method. Skin color is the most vital information used for skin detection purpose. However, color feature alone sometimes could not handle images with having same color distribution with skin color. A color feature of pixel-based does not eliminate the skin-like color due to the intensity of skin and skin-like color fall under the same distribution. Hence, the statistical color analysis will be exploited such mean and standard deviation as an additional feature to increase the reliability of skin detector. In this paper, we studied the effectiveness of statistical color feature for human skin detection. Furthermore, the paper analyzed the integrated color and texture using eight classifiers with three color spaces of RGB, YCbCr, and HSV. The experimental results show that the integrating statistical feature using Random Forest classifier achieved a significant performance with an F1-score 0.969.

Keywords: Color space, neural network, random forest, skin detection, statistical feature.

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Authors: Basharat Ali Haider, Naveed Durrani, Nadeem Aizud, Salimuddin Zahir

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The aerodynamic stall control of a baseline 13-percent thick NASA GA(W)-2 airfoil using a synthetic jet actuator (SJA) is presented in this paper. Unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are solved on a hybrid grid using a commercial software to simulate the effects of a synthetic jet actuator located at 13% of the chord from the leading edge at a Reynolds number Re = 2.1x106 and incidence angles from 16 to 22 degrees. The experimental data for the pressure distribution at Re = 3x106 and aerodynamic coefficients at Re = 2.1x106 (angle of attack varied from -16 to 22 degrees) without SJA is compared with the computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation as a baseline validation. A good agreement of the CFD simulations is obtained for aerodynamic coefficients and pressure distribution. A working SJA has been integrated with the baseline airfoil and initial focus is on the aerodynamic stall control at angles of attack from 16 to 22 degrees. The results show a noticeable improvement in the aerodynamic performance with increase in lift and decrease in drag at these post stall regimes.

Keywords: Active flow control, Aerodynamic stall, Airfoilperformance, Synthetic jet actuator.

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Authors: N. Gigauri, V. Kukhalashvili, V. Sesadze, A. Surmava, L. Intskirveli

Abstract:

Pollution of the Tbilisi atmospheric air with PM2.5 and PM10 in usual and pandemic situations by using the data of 5 stationary observation points is investigated. The values of the statistical characteristic parameters of PM in the atmosphere of Tbilisi are analyzed and trend graphs are constructed. By means of analysis of pollution levels in the quarantine and usual periods the proportion of vehicle traffic in pollution of city is estimated. Experimental measurements of PM2.5, PM10 in the atmosphere have been carried out in different districts of the city and map of the distribution of their concentrations were constructed. It is shown that maximum pollution values are recorded in the city center and along major motorways. It is shown that the average monthly concentrations vary in the range of 0.6-1.6 Maximum Permissible Concentration (MPC). Average daily values of concentration vary at 2-4 days intervals. The distribution of PM10 generated as a result of traffic is numerical modeled. The modeling results are compared with the observation data.

Keywords: Air pollution, numerical modeling, PM2.5, PM10.

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: Transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation.

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Authors: S. Ahmed Sinthia

Abstract:

Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, is one of the densely populated cities in the world. Due to rapid urbanization 60% of its population lives in slum and squatter settlements. The reason behind this poverty is low economic growth, inequitable distribution of income, unequal distribution of productive assets, unemployment and underemployment, high rate of population growth, low level of human resource development, natural disasters, and limited access to public services. Along with poverty, creating pressure on urban land, shelter, plots, open spaces this creates environmental and ecological degradation. These constraints are mostly resulted from the failures of the government policies and measures and only Government can solve this problem. This is now prime time to establish planning and environmental management policy and sustainable urban development for the city and for the urban slum dwellers which are free from eviction, criminals, rent seekers and other miscreants.

Keywords: Economic and resource constraints, environmental degradation and management, government policy, land management and policy, sustainable development.

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Authors: A. Shaygani, R. Saifi, M. S. Saidi, M. Sani

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Particle size distribution, the most important characteristics of aerosols, is obtained through electrical characterization techniques. The dynamics of charged nanoparticles under the influence of electric field in Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (EMS) reveals the size distribution of these particles. The accuracy of this measurement is influenced by flow conditions, geometry, electric field and particle charging process, therefore by the transfer function (transfer matrix) of the instrument. In this work, a wire-cylinder corona charger was designed and the combined fielddiffusion charging process of injected poly-disperse aerosol particles was numerically simulated as a prerequisite for the study of a multichannel EMS. The result, a cloud of particles with no uniform charge distribution, was introduced to the EMS. The flow pattern and electric field in the EMS were simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to obtain particle trajectories in the device and therefore to calculate the reported signal by each electrometer. According to the output signals (resulted from bombardment of particles and transferring their charges as currents), we proposed a modification to the size of detecting rings (which are connected to electrometers) in order to evaluate particle size distributions more accurately. Based on the capability of the system to transfer information contents about size distribution of the injected particles, we proposed a benchmark for the assessment of optimality of the design. This method applies the concept of Von Neumann entropy and borrows the definition of entropy from information theory (Shannon entropy) to measure optimality. Entropy, according to the Shannon entropy, is the ''average amount of information contained in an event, sample or character extracted from a data stream''. Evaluating the responses (signals) which were obtained via various configurations of detecting rings, the best configuration which gave the best predictions about the size distributions of injected particles, was the modified configuration. It was also the one that had the maximum amount of entropy. A reasonable consistency was also observed between the accuracy of the predictions and the entropy content of each configuration. In this method, entropy is extracted from the transfer matrix of the instrument for each configuration. Ultimately, various clouds of particles were introduced to the simulations and predicted size distributions were compared to the exact size distributions.

Keywords: Aerosol Nano-Particle, CFD, Electrical Mobility Spectrometer, Von Neumann entropy.

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Authors: Josu Arteche, Jesus Orbe

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The log periodogram regression is widely used in empirical applications because of its simplicity, since only a least squares regression is required to estimate the memory parameter, d, its good asymptotic properties and its robustness to misspecification of the short term behavior of the series. However, the asymptotic distribution is a poor approximation of the (unknown) finite sample distribution if the sample size is small. Here the finite sample performance of different nonparametric residual bootstrap procedures is analyzed when applied to construct confidence intervals. In particular, in addition to the basic residual bootstrap, the local and block bootstrap that might adequately replicate the structure that may arise in the errors of the regression are considered when the series shows weak dependence in addition to the long memory component. Bias correcting bootstrap to adjust the bias caused by that structure is also considered. Finally, the performance of the bootstrap in log periodogram regression based confidence intervals is assessed in different type of models and how its performance changes as sample size increases.

Keywords: bootstrap, confidence interval, log periodogram regression, long memory.

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Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Abstract:

Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: Fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, monte carlo simulation, reliability, wind turbine.

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi

Abstract:

In this paper, Bayesian online inference in models of data series are constructed by change-points algorithm, which separated the observed time series into independent series and study the change and variation of the regime of the data with related statistical characteristics. variation of statistical characteristics of time series data often represent separated phenomena in the some dynamical system, like a change in state of brain dynamical reflected in EEG signal data measurement or a change in important regime of data in many dynamical system. In this paper, prediction algorithm for studying change point location in some time series data is simulated. It is verified that pattern of proposed distribution of data has important factor on simpler and smother fluctuation of hazard rate parameter and also for better identification of change point locations. Finally, the conditions of how the time series distribution effect on factors in this approach are explained and validated with different time series databases for some dynamical system.

Keywords: Time series, fluctuation in statistical characteristics, optimal learning.

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