Search results for: Time varying channel

Authors: Chien-Wei Hung, Fu-Hau Hsu, Chuan-Sheng Wang, Chia-Hao Lee

Abstract:

Nowadays, the abuse of keyloggers is one of the most widespread approaches to steal sensitive information. In this paper, we propose an On-Screen Prompts Approach to Keyloggers (OSPAK) and its analysis, which is installed in public computers. OSPAK utilizes a canvas to cue users when their keystrokes are going to be logged or ignored by OSPAK. This approach can protect computers against recoding sensitive inputs, which obfuscates keyloggers with letters inserted among users' keystrokes. It adds a canvas below each password field in a webpage and consists of three parts: two background areas, a hit area and a moving foreground object. Letters at different valid time intervals are combined in accordance with their time interval orders, and valid time intervals are interleaved with invalid time intervals. It utilizes animation to visualize valid time intervals and invalid time intervals, which can be integrated in a webpage as a browser extension. We have tested it against a series of known keyloggers and also performed a study with 95 users to evaluate how easily the tool is used. Experimental results made by volunteers show that OSPAK is a simple approach.

Keywords: Authentication, computer security, keylogger, privacy, information leakage.

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Authors: Chimin Tsai

Abstract:

This work consists of three parts. First, the alias-free condition for the conventional two-channel quadrature mirror filter bank is analyzed using complex arithmetic. Second, the approach developed in the first part is applied to the complex quadrature mirror filter bank. Accordingly, the structure is simplified and the theory is easier to follow. Finally, a new class of complex quadrature mirror filter banks is proposed. Interesting properties of this new structure are also discussed.

Keywords: Aliasing cancellation, complex signal processing, polyphase realization, quadrature mirror filter banks.

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Authors: Shumin Hou, Yourong Li, Sanxing Zhao

Abstract:

Much time series data is generally from continuous dynamic system. Firstly, this paper studies the detection of the nonlinearity of time series from continuous dynamics systems by applying the Phase-randomized surrogate algorithm. Then, the Delay Vector Variance (DVV) method is introduced into nonlinearity test. The results show that under the different sampling conditions, the opposite detection of nonlinearity is obtained via using traditional test statistics methods, which include the third-order autocovariance and the asymmetry due to time reversal. Whereas the DVV method can perform well on determining nonlinear of Lorenz signal. It indicates that the proposed method can describe the continuous dynamics signal effectively.

Keywords: Nonlinearity, Time series, continuous dynamics system, DVV method

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba, Jean-Pierre Dubois, Georges El Soury

Abstract:

Fifth generation wireless networks guarantee significant capacity enhancement to suit more clients and services at higher information rates with better reliability while consuming less power. The deployment of massive multiple-input-multiple-output technology guarantees broadband wireless networks with the use of base station antenna arrays to serve a large number of users on the same frequency and time-slot channels. In this work, we evaluate the performance of massive multiple-input-multiple-output systems (MIMO) systems in 5^th generation cellular networks in terms of capacity and bit error rate. Several cases were considered and analyzed to compare the performance of massive MIMO systems while varying the number of antennas at both transmitting and receiving ends. We found that, unlike classical MIMO systems, reducing the number of transmit antennas while increasing the number of antennas at the receiver end provides a better solution to performance enhancement. In addition, enhanced orthogonal frequency division multiplexing and beam division multiple access schemes further improve the performance of massive MIMO systems and make them more reliable.

Keywords: Beam division multiple access, D2D communication, enhanced OFDM, fifth generation broadband, massive MIMO.

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Authors: M.J. Sharifi

Abstract:

Several models have been introduced so far for single electron box, SEB, which all of them were restricted to DC response and or low temperature limit. In this paper we introduce a new time dependent, high temperature analytical model for SEB for the first time. DC behavior of the introduced model will be verified against SIMON software and its time behavior will be verified against a newly published paper regarding step response of SEB.

Keywords: Single electron box, SPICE, SIMON, Timedependent, Circuit model.

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Authors: Okay Gunes

Abstract:

In this article, a new method is proposed for the measuring of well-being inequality through a model composed of superimposing satisfaction waves. The displacement of households’ satisfactory state (i.e. satisfaction) is defined in a satisfaction string. The duration of the satisfactory state for a given period is measured in order to determine the relationship between utility and total satisfactory time, itself dependent on the density and tension of each satisfaction string. Thus, individual cardinal total satisfaction values are computed by way of a one-dimensional form for scalar sinusoidal (harmonic) moving wave function, using satisfaction waves with varying amplitudes and frequencies which allow us to measure wellbeing inequality. One advantage to using satisfaction waves is the ability to show that individual utility and consumption amounts would probably not commute; hence, it is impossible to measure or to know simultaneously the values of these observables from the dataset. Thus, we crystallize the problem by using a Heisenberg-type uncertainty resolution for self-adjoint economic operators. We propose to eliminate any estimation bias by correlating the standard deviations of selected economic operators; this is achieved by replacing the aforementioned observed uncertainties with households’ perceived uncertainties (i.e. corrected standard deviations) obtained through the logarithmic psychophysical law proposed by Weber and Fechner.

Keywords: Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, superimposing satisfaction waves, Weber–Fechner law, well-being inequality.

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Authors: Alexey V. Klyuev, Valery P. Samarin, Viktor F. Klyuev

Abstract:

A power measurement algorithm of the input mix components of the noise signal and narrowband interference is considered using functional transformations of the input mix in the postdetection processing channel. The algorithm efficiency analysis has been carried out for different interference-to-signal ratio. Algorithm performance features have been explored by numerical experiment results.

Keywords: Noise signal, continuous narrowband interference, signal power, spectrum width, detection.

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Authors: Ryad Zemouri, Paul Ciprian Patic

Abstract:

An adaptive software reliability prediction model using evolutionary connectionist approach based on Recurrent Radial Basis Function architecture is proposed. Based on the currently available software failure time data, Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the k Gaussian nodes. The corresponding optimized neural network architecture is iteratively and dynamically reconfigured in real-time as new actual failure time data arrives. The performance of our proposed approach has been tested using sixteen real-time software failure data. Numerical results show that our proposed approach is robust across different software projects, and has a better performance with respect to next-steppredictability compared to existing neural network model for failure time prediction.

Keywords: Neural network, Prediction error, Recurrent RadialBasis Function Network, Reliability prediction.

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Authors: Delfim Soares Jr.

Abstract:

In this work, a new family of time marching procedures based on Green’s function matrices is presented. The formulation is based on the development of new recurrence relationships, which employ time integral terms to treat initial condition values. These integral terms are numerically evaluated taking into account Newton-Cotes formulas. The Green’s matrices of the model are also numerically computed, taking into account the generalized-α method and subcycling techniques. As it is discussed and illustrated along the text, the proposed procedure is efficient and accurate, providing a very attractive time marching technique. 

Keywords: Dynamics, Time-Marching, Green’s Function, Generalized-α Method, Subcycling.

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Authors: J. P. Dubois, Omar M. Abdul-Latif

Abstract:

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a statistical learning tool developed to a more complex concept of structural risk minimization (SRM). In this paper, SVM is applied to signal detection in communication systems in the presence of channel noise in various environments in the form of Rayleigh fading, additive white Gaussian background noise (AWGN), and interference noise generalized as additive color Gaussian noise (ACGN). The structure and performance of SVM in terms of the bit error rate (BER) metric is derived and simulated for these advanced stochastic noise models and the computational complexity of the implementation, in terms of average computational time per bit, is also presented. The performance of SVM is then compared to conventional binary signaling optimal model-based detector driven by binary phase shift keying (BPSK) modulation. We show that the SVM performance is superior to that of conventional matched filter-, innovation filter-, and Wiener filter-driven detectors, even in the presence of random Doppler carrier deviation, especially for low SNR (signal-to-noise ratio) ranges. For large SNR, the performance of the SVM was similar to that of the classical detectors. However, the convergence between SVM and maximum likelihood detection occurred at a higher SNR as the noise environment became more hostile.

Keywords: Colour noise, Doppler shift, innovation filter, least square-support vector machine, matched filter, Rayleigh fading, Wiener filter.

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Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Hailong Zhu

Abstract:

In this paper, the three species food chain model on time scales is established. The Monod–Haldane functional response and time delay are considered. With the help of coincidence degree theory, existence of periodic solutions is investigated, which unifies the continuous and discrete analogies.

Keywords: Food chain system, periodic solution, time scales, coincidence degree.

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Authors: Siddeeq Y. Ameen, Mohammed K. Yousif

Abstract:

Cooperative communication systems are considered to be a promising technology to improve the system capacity, reliability and performances over fading wireless channels. Cooperative relaying system with a single antenna will be able to reach the advantages of multiple antenna communication systems. It is ideally suitable for the distributed communication systems; the relays can cooperate and form virtual MIMO systems. Thus the paper will aim to investigate the possible enhancement of cooperated system using decode and forward protocol. On the decode and forward an attempt to cancel or at least reduce the interference instead of increasing the SNR values is achieved. The latter can be achieved via the use group of relays depending on the channel status from source to relay and relay to destination respectively.

In the proposed system, the transmission time has been divided into two phases to be used by the decode and forward protocol. The first phase has been allocated for the source to transmit its data whereas the relays and destination nodes are in receiving mode. On the other hand, the second phase is allocated for the first and second groups of relay nodes to relay the data to the destination node. Simulations results have shown an improvement in performance is achieved compared to the conventional decode and forward in terms of BER and transmission rate.

Keywords: Cooperative systems, decode and forward, interference cancellation, virtual MIMO.

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Authors: Naveed Ahmed, Gunar Matthies

Abstract:

We deal with the numerical solution of time-dependent convection-diffusion-reaction equations. We combine the local projection stabilization method for the space discretization with two different time discretization schemes: the continuous Galerkin-Petrov (cGP) method and the discontinuous Galerkin (dG) method of polynomial of degree k. We establish the optimal error estimates and present numerical results which shows that the cGP(k) and dG(k)- methods are accurate of order k +1, respectively, in the whole time interval. Moreover, the cGP(k)-method is superconvergent of order 2k and dG(k)-method is of order 2k +1 at the discrete time points. Furthermore, the dependence of the results on the choice of the stabilization parameter are discussed and compared.

Keywords: Convection-diffusion-reaction equations, stabilized finite elements, discontinuous Galerkin, continuous Galerkin-Petrov.

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Authors: Adnan Muharemovic, Hidajet Salkic, Mario Klaric, Irfan Turkovic, Aida Muharemovic

Abstract:

In nature, electromagnetic fields always appear like atmosphere static electric field, the earth's static magnetic field and the wide-rang frequency electromagnetic field caused by lightening. However, besides natural electromagnetic fields (EMF), today human beings are mostly exposed to artificial electromagnetic fields due to technology progress and outspread use of electrical devices. To evaluate nuisance of EMF, it is necessary to know field intensity for every frequency which appears and compare it with allowed values. Low frequency EMF-s around transmission and distribution lines are time-varying quasi-static electromagnetic fields which have conservative component of low frequency electrical field caused by charges and eddy component of low frequency magnetic field caused by currents. Displacement current or field delay are negligible, so energy flow in quasi-static EMF involves diffusion, analog like heat transfer. Electrical and magnetic field can be analyzed separately. This paper analysis the numerical calculations in ELF-400 software of EMF in distribution substation in shopping center. Analyzing the results it is possible to specify locations exposed to the fields and give useful suggestion to eliminate electromagnetic effect or reduce it on acceptable level within the non-ionizing radiation norms and norms of protection from EMF.

Keywords: Electromagnetic Field, Density of Electromagnetic Flow, Place of Proffesional Exposure, Place of Increased Sensitivity

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Authors: S. D. El Wakil, M. Pladsen

Abstract:

Fiber reinforced polymeric (FRP) composites are finding wide-spread industrial applications because of their exceptionally high specific strength and specific modulus of elasticity. Nevertheless, it is very seldom to get ready-for-use components or products made of FRP composites. Secondary processing by machining, particularly drilling, is almost always required to make holes for fastening components together to produce assemblies. That creates problems since the FRP composites are neither homogeneous nor isotropic. Some of the problems that are encountered include the subsequent damage in the region around the drilled hole and the drilling – induced delamination of the layer of ply, that occurs both at the entrance and the exit planes of the work piece. Evidently, the functionality of the work piece would be detrimentally affected. The current work was carried out with the aim of eliminating or at least minimizing the work piece damage associated with drilling of FPR composites. Each test specimen involves a woven reinforced graphite fiber/epoxy composite having a thickness of 12.5 mm (0.5 inch). A large number of test specimens were subjected to drilling operations with different combinations of feed rates and cutting speeds. The drilling induced damage was taken as the absolute value of the difference between the drilled hole diameter and the nominal one taken as a percentage of the nominal diameter. The later was determined for each combination of feed rate and cutting speed, and a matrix comprising those values was established, where the columns indicate varying feed rate while and rows indicate varying cutting speeds. Next, the analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach was employed using Minitab software, in order to obtain the combination that would improve the drilling induced damage. Experimental results show that low feed rates coupled with low cutting speeds yielded the best results.

Keywords: Drilling of Composites, dimensional accuracy of holes drilled in composites, delamination and charring, graphite-epoxy composites.

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Authors: A. Rawangpai, B. Maraungsri, N. Chomnawang

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental results on artificial ageing test of 22 kV XLPE cable for distribution system application in Thailand. XLPE insulating material of 22 kV cable was sliced to 60-70 μm in thick and was subjected to ac high voltage at 23 Ôùª C, 60 Ôùª C and 75 Ôùª C. Testing voltage was constantly applied to the specimen until breakdown. Breakdown voltage and time to breakdown were used to evaluate life time of insulating material. Furthermore, the physical model by J. P. Crine for predicts life time of XLPE insulating material was adopted as life time model and was calculated in order to compare the experimental results. Acceptable life time results were obtained from Crine-s model comparing with the experimental result. In addition, fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) for chemical analysis and scanning electron microscope (SEM) for physical analysis were conducted on tested specimens.

Keywords: Artificial accelerated ageing test, XLPE cable, distribution system, insulating material, life time, life time model

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Authors: Hun Go, Ji-Su Kim, Dong-Ho Lee

Abstract:

This study considers the problem of determining operation and maintenance schedules for a containership equipped with components during its sailing according to a pre-determined navigation schedule. The operation schedule, which specifies work time of each component, determines the due-date of each maintenance activity, and the maintenance schedule specifies the actual start time of each maintenance activity. The main constraints are component requirements, workforce availability, working time limitation, and inter-maintenance time. To represent the problem mathematically, a mixed integer programming model is developed. Then, due to the problem complexity, we suggest a heuristic for the objective of minimizing the sum of earliness and tardiness between the due-date and the starting time of each maintenance activity. Computational experiments were done on various test instances and the results are reported.

Keywords: Containerships, operation and preventive maintenance schedules, integer programming, heuristic

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Authors: J.-C. Cexus, A.O. Boudraa

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In this paper, a new approach for target recognition based on the Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm of Huang etal. [11] and the energy tracking operator of Teager [13]-[14] is introduced. The conjunction of these two methods is called Teager-Huang analysis. This approach is well suited for nonstationary signals analysis. The impulse response (IR) of target is first band pass filtered into subsignals (components) called Intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with well defined Instantaneous frequency (IF) and Instantaneous amplitude (IA). Each IMF is a zero-mean AM-FM component. In second step, the energy of each IMF is tracked using the Teager energy operator (TEO). IF and IA, useful to describe the time-varying characteristics of the signal, are estimated using the Energy separation algorithm (ESA) algorithm of Maragos et al .[16]-[17]. In third step, a set of features such as skewness and kurtosis are extracted from the IF, IA and IMF energy functions. The Teager-Huang analysis is tested on set of synthetic IRs of Sonar targets with different physical characteristics (density, velocity, shape,? ). PCA is first applied to features to discriminate between manufactured and natural targets. The manufactured patterns are classified into spheres and cylinders. One hundred percent of correct recognition is achieved with twenty three echoes where sixteen IRs, used for training, are free noise and seven IRs, used for testing phase, are corrupted with white Gaussian noise.

Keywords: Target recognition, Empirical mode decomposition, Teager-Kaiser energy operator, Features extraction.

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Authors: Yong-Gyu Lee, Gilwon Yoon

Abstract:

Image processing for capsule endoscopy requires large memory and it takes hours for diagnosis since operation time is normally more than 8 hours. A real-time analysis algorithm of capsule images can be clinically very useful. It can differentiate abnormal tissue from health structure and provide with correlation information among the images. Bleeding is our interest in this regard and we propose a method of detecting frames with potential bleeding in real-time. Our detection algorithm is based on statistical analysis and the shapes of bleeding spots. We tested our algorithm with 30 cases of capsule endoscopy in the digestive track. Results were excellent where a sensitivity of 99% and a specificity of 97% were achieved in detecting the image frames with bleeding spots.

Keywords: bleeding, capsule endoscopy, image processing, real time analysis

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Authors: Sunil Patel, Pallab Maji

Abstract:

To study the effect of adversarial attack environment must be controlled. Autonomous driving includes mainly 5 phases sense, perceive, map, plan, and drive. Autonomous vehicles sense their surrounding with the help of different sensors like cameras, radars, and lidars. Deep learning techniques are considered Blackbox and found to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks. In this research, we study the effect of the various known adversarial attacks with the help of the Unreal Engine-based, high-fidelity, real-time raytraced simulated environment. The goal of this experiment is to find out if adversarial attacks work in moving vehicles and if an unknown network may be targeted. We discovered that the existing Blackbox and Whitebox attacks have varying effects on different traffic signs. We observed that attacks that impair detection in static scenarios do not have the same effect on moving vehicles. It was found that some adversarial attacks with hardly noticeable perturbations entirely blocked the recognition of certain traffic signs. We observed that the daylight condition has a substantial impact on the model's performance by simulating the interplay of light on traffic signs. Our findings have been found to closely resemble outcomes encountered in the real world.

Keywords: Adversarial attack simulation, computer simulation, ray-traced environment, realistic simulation, unreal engine.

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Authors: Saeed Mian Qaisar, Laurent Fesquet, Marc Renaudin

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The frequency contents of the non-stationary signals vary with time. For proper characterization of such signals, a smart time-frequency representation is necessary. Classically, the STFT (short-time Fourier transform) is employed for this purpose. Its limitation is the fixed timefrequency resolution. To overcome this drawback an enhanced STFT version is devised. It is based on the signal driven sampling scheme, which is named as the cross-level sampling. It can adapt the sampling frequency and the window function (length plus shape) by following the input signal local variations. This adaptation results into the proposed technique appealing features, which are the adaptive time-frequency resolution and the computational efficiency.

Keywords: Level Crossing Sampling, Activity Selection, Adaptive Resolution Analysis, Computational Complexity.

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Authors: Sameh Al-Natour, Izak Benbasat

Abstract:

The introduction of a multitude of new and interactive e-commerce information technology (IT) artifacts has impacted adoption research. Rather than solely functioning as productivity tools, new IT artifacts assume the roles of interaction mediators and social actors. This paper describes the varying roles assumed by IT artifacts, and proposes and distinguishes between four distinct foci of how the artifacts are evaluated. It further proposes a theoretical model that maps the different views of IT artifacts to four distinct types of evaluations.

Keywords: IT adoption, IT artifacts, similarity, social actor.

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Authors: Seung Woo Lee, So Jeong Nam, Jai-Kyung Lee

Abstract:

It can be said that the business sector is faced with a range of challenges–a rapidly changing business environment, an increase and diversification of customers- demands and the consequent need for quick response–for having in place flexible management and production info systems. As a matter of fact, many manufacturers have adopted production info management systems such as MES and ERP. Nevertheless, managers are having difficulties obtaining ever-changing production process information in real time, or responding quickly to any change in production related needs on the basis of such information. This is because they rely on poor production info systems which are not capable of providing real-time factory settings. If the manufacturer doesn-t have a capacity for collecting or digitalizing the 4 Ms (Man, Machine, Material, Method), which are resources for production, on a real time basis, it might to difficult to effectively maintain the information on production process. In this regard, this paper will introduce some new alternatives to the existing methods of collecting the 4 Ms in real time, which are currently comprise the production field.

Keywords: 4M, Acquisition of Data on shop-floor, Real-time machine interface

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Authors: C. Pacheco, A. Cipriano

Abstract:

A new concept of response system is proposed for filling the gap that exists in reducing vulnerability during immediate response to natural disasters. Real Time Early Response Systems (RTERSs) incorporate real time information as feedback data for closing control loop and for generating real time situation assessment. A review of the state of the art on works that fit the concept of RTERS is presented, and it is found that they are mainly focused on manmade disasters. At the same time, in response phase of natural disaster management many works are involved in creating early warning systems, but just few efforts have been put on deciding what to do once an alarm is activated. In this context a RTERS arises as a useful tool for supporting people in their decision making process during natural disasters after an event is detected, and also as an innovative context for applying well-known automation technologies and automatic control concepts and tools.

Keywords: Disaster management, emergency response system, natural disasters, real time.

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Authors: Anthony Spiteri Staines

Abstract:

This paper examines and compares several of the most common real time methods. These methods are CORE, YSM, MASCOT, JSD, DARTS, RTSAD, ADARTS, CODARTS, HOOD, HRT-HOOD, ROOM, UML, UML-RT. The methods are compared using attributes like i) usability, ii) compositionality and iii) proper RT notations available. Finally some comparison results are given and discussed.

Keywords: Software Engineering Methods, MethodComparison, Real Time Analysis and Design.

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Authors: Prashant P. Bedekar, Sudhir R. Bhide, Vijay S. Kale

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Overcurrent (OC) relays are the major protection devices in a distribution system. The operating time of the OC relays are to be coordinated properly to avoid the mal-operation of the backup relays. The OC relay time coordination in ring fed distribution networks is a highly constrained optimization problem which can be stated as a linear programming problem (LPP). The purpose is to find an optimum relay setting to minimize the time of operation of relays and at the same time, to keep the relays properly coordinated to avoid the mal-operation of relays. This paper presents two phase simplex method for optimum time coordination of OC relays. The method is based on the simplex algorithm which is used to find optimum solution of LPP. The method introduces artificial variables to get an initial basic feasible solution (IBFS). Artificial variables are removed using iterative process of first phase which minimizes the auxiliary objective function. The second phase minimizes the original objective function and gives the optimum time coordination of OC relays.

Keywords: Constrained optimization, LPP, Overcurrent relaycoordination, Two-phase simplex method.

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Authors: Ime R. Udotong, Justina I. R. Udotong, Ofonime U. M. John

Abstract:

Ibeno, Nigeria hosts the operational base of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU), a subsidiary of ExxonMobil and the current highest oil & condensate producer in Nigeria. Besides MPNU, other oil companies operate onshore, on the continental shelf and deep offshore of the Atlantic Ocean in Ibeno, Nigeria. This study was designed to delineate oil polluted sites in Ibeno, Nigeria using geophysical methods of electrical resistivity (ER) and ground penetrating radar (GPR). Results obtained revealed that there have been hydrocarbon contaminations of this environment by past crude oil spills as observed from high resistivity values and GPR profiles which clearly show the distribution, thickness and lateral extent of hydrocarbon contamination as represented on the radargram reflector tones. Contaminations were of varying degrees, ranging from slight to high, indicating levels of substantial attenuation of crude oil contamination over time. Moreover, the display of relatively lower resistivities of locations outside the impacted areas compared to resistivity values within the impacted areas and the 3-D Cartesian images of oil contaminant plume depicted by red, light brown and magenta for high, low and very low oil impacted areas, respectively confirmed significant recent pollution of the study area with crude oil.

Keywords: Electrical resistivity, geophysical investigations, ground penetrating radar, oil-polluted sites.

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Authors: Nuray Uçar, Mervin Ölmez, Özge Alptoğa, Nilgün K. Yavuz, Ayşen Önen

Abstract:

In recent years, research on continuous graphene oxide fibers has been intensified. Therefore, many factors of production stages are being studied. In this study, the effect of exfoliation time and presence of activated carbon particle (ACP) on graphene oxide fiber’s properties has been analyzed. It has been seen that cross-sectional appearance of sample with ACP is harsh and porous because of ACP. The addition of ACP did not change the electrical conductivity. However, ACP results in an enormous decrease of mechanical properties. Longer exfoliation time results to higher crystallinity degree, C/O ratio and less d space between layers. The breaking strength and electrical conductivity of sample with less exfoliation time is some higher than sample with high exfoliation time.

Keywords: Activated carbon, coagulation by wet spinning, exfoliation, graphene oxide fiber.

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Authors: J. Arneric, A. Rozga

Abstract:

In this paper usefulness of quasi-Newton iteration procedure in parameters estimation of the conditional variance equation within BHHH algorithm is presented. Analytical solution of maximization of the likelihood function using first and second derivatives is too complex when the variance is time-varying. The advantage of BHHH algorithm in comparison to the other optimization algorithms is that requires no third derivatives with assured convergence. To simplify optimization procedure BHHH algorithm uses the approximation of the matrix of second derivatives according to information identity. However, parameters estimation in a/symmetric GARCH(1,1) model assuming normal distribution of returns is not that simple, i.e. it is difficult to solve it analytically. Maximum of the likelihood function can be founded by iteration procedure until no further increase can be found. Because the solutions of the numerical optimization are very sensitive to the initial values, GARCH(1,1) model starting parameters are defined. The number of iterations can be reduced using starting values close to the global maximum. Optimization procedure will be illustrated in framework of modeling volatility on daily basis of the most liquid stocks on Croatian capital market: Podravka stocks (food industry), Petrokemija stocks (fertilizer industry) and Ericsson Nikola Tesla stocks (information-s-communications industry).

Keywords: Heteroscedasticity, Log-likelihood Maximization, Quasi-Newton iteration procedure, Volatility.

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Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

Abstract:

Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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