Search results for: seismic vulnerability index

Authors: Hamidou Diallo, Marianne Guille

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This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS) and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay its debts and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. For AEs, the evolution of the proportion of countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by a relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.

Keywords: GDP growth, early warning system, advanced economies, developing countries.

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: Machine learning, stock market trading, logistic principal component analysis, automated stock investment system.

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Authors: Amirali Shirazibeheshti, Tarik Radwan, Alireza Ettefaghian, Farbod Khanizadeh, George Wilson, Cristina Luca

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Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. This work evaluates the association between the average risk score and measures of socioeconomic status (index of multiple deprivation) and health (index of health and disability). The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, suggesting that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medication. The risk may be monitored and controlled in a healthcare management system that is well-equipped with tools implementing appropriate techniques of artificial intelligence.

Keywords: Anticholinergic medication, socioeconomic status, deprivation, clustering, risk analysis.

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Authors: Somayeh Negahdari, Mohsen Ghanbarzadeh, Masoud Nikbakht, Heshmatolah Tavakol

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Asthma, obesity and overweight are the main factors causing change within the heart and respiratory airways. Asthma symptoms are normally observed during exercising. Epidemiological studies have indicated asthma symptoms occurring due to certain lifestyle habits; for example, a sedentary lifestyle. In this study, eight weeks of aerobic exercises resulted in a positive effect overall in overweight women experiencing mild chronic asthma. The quasi-experimental applied research has been done based on experimental and control groups. The experimental group (seven patients) and control group (n = 7) were graded before and after the test. According to the Borg dyspnea and fatigue Perception Index, the training intensity has determined. Participants in the study performed a sub-maximal aerobic activity schedule (45% to 80% of maximum heart rate) for two months, while the control group (n = 7) stayed away from aerobic exercise. Data evaluation and analysis of covariance compared both the pre-test and post-test with paired t-test at significance level of P≤ 0.05. After eight weeks of exercise, the results of the experimental group show a significant decrease in resting heart rate, systolic blood pressure, minute ventilation, while a significant increase in maximal oxygen uptake and tolerance activity (P ≤ 0.05). In the control group, there was no significant difference in these parameters ((P ≤ 0.05). The results indicate the aerobic activity can strengthen the respiratory muscles, while other physiological factors could result in breathing and heart recovery. Aerobic activity also resulted in favorable changes in cardiovascular parameters, and exercise tolerance of overweight women with chronic asthma.

Keywords: Asthma, respiratory cardiac index, exercise tolerance, aerobic, overweight.

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Authors: Toufik Karech, Abderahmen Benseghir, Tayeb Bouzid

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This work presents a 2D numerical simulation of an earth dam to assess the behavior of its foundation after a treatment by stone columns. This treatment aims to improve the bearing capacity, to increase the mechanical properties of the soil, to accelerate the consolidation, to reduce the settlements and to eliminate the liquefaction phenomenon in case of seismic excitation. For the evaluation of the pore pressures, the position of the phreatic line and the flow network was defined, and a seepage analysis was performed with the software MIDAS Soil Works. The consolidation calculation is performed through a simulation of the actual construction stages of the dam. These analyzes were performed using the Mohr-Coulomb soil model and the results are compared with the actual measurements of settlement gauges implanted in the dam. An analysis of the bearing capacity was conducted to show the role of stone columns in improving the bearing capacity of the foundation.

Keywords: Earth dam, dam foundation, numerical simulation, stone columns, seepage analysis, consolidation, bearing capacity.

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Authors: M. F. Yilmaz, B. Ö. Çağlayan

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Fragility curve is an effective common used tool to determine the earthquake performance of structural and nonstructural components. Also, it is used to determine the nonlinear behavior of bridges. There are many historical bridges in the Turkish railway network; the earthquake performances of these bridges are needed to be investigated. To derive fragility curve Intensity measures (IMs) and Engineering demand parameters (EDP) are needed to be determined. And the relation between IMs and EDP are needed to be derived. In this study, a typical simply supported steel girder riveted railway bridge is studied. Fragility curves of this bridge are derived by two parameters lognormal distribution. Time history analyses are done for selected 60 real earthquake data to determine the relation between IMs and EDP. Moreover, efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency of three different IMs are discussed. PGA, Sa(0.2s) and Sa(1s), the most common used IMs parameters for fragility curve in the literature, are taken into consideration in terms of efficiency, practicality and sufficiency.

Keywords: Railway bridges, earthquake performance, fragility analyses, selection of intensity measures.

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Authors: Behnaz Zohouri, Mahdi Zowghiand, Mohsen haghighi

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In this paper, a method for decision making in fuzzy environment is presented.A new subjective and objective integrated approach is introduced that used to assign weight attributes in fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (FMADM) problems and alternatives and fmally ranked by proposed method.

Keywords: Multiple Attribute Decision Making, Triangular fuzzy numbers, ranking index, Fuzzy Entropy.

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Authors: A. R. Aswatha, T. Basavaraju, N. Bhaskara Rao

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This paper presents a new technique for the optimum placement of processors to minimize the total effective communication load under multi-processor communication dominated environment. This is achieved by placing heavily loaded processors near each other and lightly loaded ones far away from one another in the physical grid locations. The results are mathematically proved for the Algorithms are described.

Keywords: Ascending Sort Index Vector, EffectiveCommunication Load, Effective Distance Matrix, OptimalPlacement, Sorting Order.

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Authors: M.H. Ahmad Fadzil, Esa Prakasa, Hurriyatul Fitriyah, Hermawan Nugroho, Azura Mohd Affandi, S.H. Hussein

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Psoriasis is a widespread skin disease affecting up to 2% population with plaque psoriasis accounting to about 80%. It can be identified as a red lesion and for the higher severity the lesion is usually covered with rough scale. Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) scoring is the gold standard method for measuring psoriasis severity. Scaliness is one of PASI parameter that needs to be quantified in PASI scoring. Surface roughness of lesion can be used as a scaliness feature, since existing scale on lesion surface makes the lesion rougher. The dermatologist usually assesses the severity through their tactile sense, therefore direct contact between doctor and patient is required. The problem is the doctor may not assess the lesion objectively. In this paper, a digital image analysis technique is developed to objectively determine the scaliness of the psoriasis lesion and provide the PASI scaliness score. Psoriasis lesion is modelled by a rough surface. The rough surface is created by superimposing a smooth average (curve) surface with a triangular waveform. For roughness determination, a polynomial surface fitting is used to estimate average surface followed by a subtraction between rough and average surface to give elevation surface (surface deviations). Roughness index is calculated by using average roughness equation to the height map matrix. The roughness algorithm has been tested to 444 lesion models. From roughness validation result, only 6 models can not be accepted (percentage error is greater than 10%). These errors occur due the scanned image quality. Roughness algorithm is validated for roughness measurement on abrasive papers at flat surface. The Pearson-s correlation coefficient of grade value (G) of abrasive paper and Ra is -0.9488, its shows there is a strong relation between G and Ra. The algorithm needs to be improved by surface filtering, especially to overcome a problem with noisy data.

Keywords: psoriasis, roughness algorithm, polynomial surfacefitting.

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Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Mustafa Nihat Demirci, Mehmet Nuri Salur

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Environmental pollution has detrimental effects on the quality of our life and its scope has reached such an extent that measures are being taken both at the national and international levels to reduce, prevent and mitigate its impact on social, economic and political spheres. Therefore, awareness of environmental problems has been increasing among stakeholders and accordingly among companies. It is seen that corporate reporting is expanding beyond environmental performance. Primary purpose of publishing an environmental report is to provide specific audiences with useful, meaningful information. This paper is intended to analyze the extent and qualification of environmental disclosures of Turkish publicly quoted firms and see how it varies from one sector to another. The data for the study were collected from annual activity reports of companies, listed on the corporate governance index (BIST-XKURY) of Istanbul Stock Exchange. Content analysis was the research methodology used to measure the extent of environmental disclosure. Accordingly, 2015 annual activity reports of companies that carry out business in some particular fields were acquired from Capital Market Board, websites of Public Disclosure Platform and companies’ own websites. These reports were categorized into five main aspects: Environmental policies, environmental management systems, environmental protection and conservation activities, environmental awareness and information on environmental lawsuits. Subsequently, each component was divided into several variables related to what each firm is supposed to disclose about environmental information. In this context, the nature and scope of the information disclosed on each item were assessed according to five different ways (N.I: No Information; G.E.: General Explanations; Q.E.: Qualitative Detailed Explanations; N.E.: Quantitative (numerical) Detailed Explanations; Q.&N.E.: Both Qualitative and Quantitative Explanations).

Keywords: Environmental accounting, disclosure, corporate governance, content analysis.

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Authors: Yen-Po Wang, Ming-Chih Huang, Ming-Lian Chang

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A scheme integrated with deterministic–stochastic subspace system identification and the method of damage localization vector is proposed in this study for damage detection of structures based on seismic response data. A series of shaking table tests using a five-storey steel frame has been conducted in National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE), Taiwan. Damage condition is simulated by reducing the cross-sectional area of some of the columns at the bottom. Both single and combinations of multiple damage conditions at various locations have been considered. In the system identification analysis, either full or partial observation conditions have been taken into account. It has been shown that the damaged stories can be identified from global responses of the structure to earthquakes if sufficiently observed. In addition to detecting damage(s) with respect to the intact structure, identification of new or extended damages of the as-damaged (ill-conditioned) counterpart has also been studied. The proposed scheme proves to be effective.

Keywords: Damage locating vectors, deterministic-stochastic subspace system, shaking table tests, system identification.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Baradaran, Farhad Hamzezarghani, Mehdi Rastegari Ghiri, Zahra Mirsanjari

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Passive control methods can be utilized to build earthquake resistant structures, and also to strengthen the vulnerable ones. In this paper, we studied the effect of this system in increasing the ductility and energy dissipation and also modeled the behavior of this type of eccentric bracing, and compared the hysteresis diagram of the modeled samples with the laboratory samples. We studied several samples of frames with vertical shear-links in order to assess the behavior of this type of eccentric bracing. Each of these samples was modeled in finite element software ANSYS 9.0, and was analyzed under the static cyclic loading. It was found that vertical shear-links have a more stable hysteresis loops. Another analysis showed that using honeycomb beams as the horizontal beam along with steel reinforcement has no negative effect on the hysteresis behavior of the sample.

Keywords: Vertical shear-link, passive control, cyclic analysis, energy dissipation, honeycomb beam.

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Authors: Mimi Mohaffyza Mohamad, Yee Mei Heong, Nurfirdawati Muhammad Hanafi Tee Tze Kiong

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This study is conducted to investigate the disparity of between learning styles and cognitive abilities specifically in Vocational Education.  Felder and Silverman Learning Styles Model (FSLSM) was applied to measure the students’ learning styles while the content in Building Construction Subject consists; knowledge, skills and problem solving were taken into account in constructing the elements of cognitive abilities. Building Construction is one of the vocational courses offered in Vocational Education structure. There are four dimension of learning styles proposed by Felder and Silverman intended to capture student learning preferences with regards to processing either active or reflective, perception based on sensing or intuitive, input of information used visual or verbal and understanding information represent with sequential or global learner. Felder-Solomon Learning Styles Index was developed based on FSLSM and the questions were used to identify what type of student learning preferences. The index consists 44 item-questions characterize for learning styles dimension in FSLSM. The achievement test was developed to determine the students’ cognitive abilities. The quantitative data was analyzed in descriptive and inferential statistic involving Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA). The study discovered students are tending to be visual learners and each type of learner having significant difference whereas cognitive abilities there are different finding for each type of learners in knowledge, skills and problem solving. This study concludes the gap between type of learner and the cognitive abilities in few illustrations and it explained how the connecting made. The finding may help teachers to facilitate students more effectively and to boost the student’s cognitive abilities.

Keywords: Learning Styles, Cognitive Abilities, Dimension of Learning Styles, Learning Preferences.

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Authors: Soltani Amir, Hu Jiaxin

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Determination of optimal parameters of a passive  control system device is the primary objective of this study.  Expanding upon the use of control devices in wind and earthquake  hazard reduction has led to development of various control systems.  The advantage of non-linearity characteristics in a passive control  device and the optimal control method using LQR algorithm are  explained in this study. Finally, this paper introduces a simple  approach to determine optimum parameters of a nonlinear viscous  damper for vibration control of structures. A MATLAB program is  used to produce the dynamic motion of the structure considering the  stiffness matrix of the SDOF frame and the non-linear damping  effect. This study concluded that the proposed system (variable  damping system) has better performance in system response control  than a linear damping system. Also, according to the energy  dissipation graph, the total energy loss is greater in non-linear  damping system than other systems.

 

Keywords: Passive Control System, Damping Devices, Viscous Dampers, Control Algorithm.

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Authors: Lakshmi Keshav, V. G. Srisanthi

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In this experimental investigation shake table tests were conducted on two reduced models that represent normal single room building constructed by Compressed Stabilized Earth Block (CSEB) from locally available soil. One model was constructed with earthquake resisting features (EQRF) having sill band, lintel band and vertical bands to control the building vibration and another one was without Earthquake Resisting Features. To examine the seismic capacity of the models particularly when it is subjected to long-period ground motion by large amplitude by many cycles of repeated loading, the test specimen was shaken repeatedly until the failure. The test results from Hi-end Data Acquisition system show that model with EQRF behave better than without EQRF. This modified masonry model with new material combined with new bands is used to improve the behavior of masonry building.

Keywords: Earth Quake Resisting Features, Compressed Stabilized Earth Blocks, Masonry structures, Shake table testing, Horizontal and vertical bands.

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Authors: Fatema-Tuz-Zahura, Raquib Ahsan

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Punching shear failure is usually the governing failure mode of flat plate structures. Punching failure is brittle in nature which induces more vulnerability to this type of structure. In the present study, a 3D finite element model of a flat plate with low reinforcement ratio and without any transverse reinforcement has been developed. Punching shear stress and the deflection data were obtained on the surface of the flat plate as well as through the thickness of the model from numerical simulations. The obtained data were compared with the experimental results. Variation of punching stress with respect to deflection as obtained from numerical results is found to be in good agreement with the experimental results; the range of variation of punching stress is within 5%. The numerical simulation shows an early and gradual onset of nonlinearity, whereas the same is late and abrupt as observed in the experimental results. The range of variation of punching stress for different slab thicknesses between experimental and numerical results is less than 15%. The developed numerical model is useful to complement available punching test series performed in the past. The results obtained from the numerical model will be helpful for designing retrofitting schemes of flat plates.

Keywords: Flat plate, finite element model, punching shear, reinforcement ratio.

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Authors: Valeriy Naumov, Olli Martikainen

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In this paper we propose new method for simultaneous generating multiple quantiles corresponding to given probability levels from data streams and massive data sets. This method provides a basis for development of single-pass low-storage quantile estimation algorithms, which differ in complexity, storage requirement and accuracy. We demonstrate that such algorithms may perform well even for heavy-tailed data.

Keywords: Quantile estimation, data stream, heavy-taileddistribution, tail index.

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Authors: Thomas Jin-Chee Liu, Jin-Wei Liang, Wei-Long Chen, Teng-Hui Chen

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The finite element analysis is adopted in this primary study. Using the Tsai-Wu criterion and delamination criterion, the stacking sequence [45/0₄/-45₄/90₄]_s is the final optimal design for the wheelchair frame. On the contrary, the uni-directional laminates, i.e. [90₁₃]_s, [45₁₃]_s and [-45₁₃]_s, are bad designs due to the higher failure indexes.

Keywords: Wheelchair frame, stacking sequence, failure index, finite element.

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Authors: Marni Pazos, Blanca Mendoza, Luis Gimeno

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The relationship between tropical cyclogenesis and solar activity is addressed in this paper, analyzing the relationship between important parameters in the evolution of tropical cyclones as the CAPE, wind shear and relative vorticity, and the Dst geomagnetic index as a parameter of solar activity. The apparent relationship between all this phenomena has a different response depending on the phase of the solar cycles.

Keywords: tropical cyclones, solar-earth relationship, climate change.

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Authors: Onkar Bhat Kodical, Sridhar Srinivasan, N.K. Srinath

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Tool Tracker is a client-server based application. It is essentially a catalogue of various network monitoring and management tools that are available online. There is a database maintained on the server side that contains the information about various tools. Several clients can access this information simultaneously and utilize this information. The various categories of tools considered are packet sniffers, port mappers, port scanners, encryption tools, and vulnerability scanners etc for the development of this application. This application provides a front end through which the user can invoke any tool from a central repository for the purpose of packet sniffing, port scanning, network analysis etc. Apart from the tool, its description and the help files associated with it would also be stored in the central repository. This facility will enable the user to view the documentation pertaining to the tool without having to download and install the tool. The application would update the central repository with the latest versions of the tools. The application would inform the user about the availability of a newer version of the tool currently being used and give the choice of installing the newer version to the user. Thus ToolTracker provides any network administrator that much needed abstraction and ease-ofuse with respect to the tools that he can use to efficiently monitor a network.

Keywords: Network monitoring, single platform, client/server application, version management.

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Authors: H. Malachova, A. Oulehlova, D. Rezac

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Crisis preparedness training is the best possible strategy for identifying weak points, understanding vulnerability, and finding possible strategies for mitigation of blackout consequences. Training represents an effective tool for developing abilities and skills to cope with crisis situations. This article builds on the results of the research carried out in the field of preparation, realization, process, and impacts of training on subjects of energy sector critical infrastructure as a part of crisis preparedness. The research has revealed that the subjects of energy sector critical infrastructure have not realized training and therefore are not prepared for the restoration of the energy supply and black start after blackout regardless of the fact that most subjects state blackout and subsequent black start as key dangers. Training, together with mutual communication and processed crisis documentation, represent a basis for successful solutions for dealing with emergency situations. This text presents the suggested model of SIMEX simulator as a tool which supports managing crisis situations, containing training environment. Training models, possibilities of constructive simulation making use of non-aggregated as well as aggregated entities and tools of communication channels of individual simulator nodes have been introduced by the article.

Keywords: Energetic critical infrastructure, preparedness, training, simulation.

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Authors: C. Barreto Carvalho, C. da Motta, M. Sousa, J. Cabral, A. L. Carvalho, E. B. Peixoto

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The aim of the current study was to develop and validate a Response to Stressful Situations Scale (RSSS) for the Portuguese population. This scale assesses the degree of stress experienced in scenarios that can constitute positive, negative and more neutral stressors, and also describes the physiological, emotional and behavioral reactions to those events according to their intensity. These scenarios include typical stressor scenarios relevant to patients with schizophrenia, which are currently absent from most scales, assessing specific risks that these stressors may bring on subjects, which may prove useful in non-clinical and clinical populations (i.e. Patients with mood or anxiety disorders, schizophrenia). Results from Principal Components Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis of two adult samples from general population allowed to confirm a three-factor model with good fit indices: χ2 (144)= 370.211, p = 0.000; GFI = 0.928; CFI = 0.927; TLI = 0.914, RMSEA = 0.055, P(rmsea ≤0.005) = .096; PCFI = .781. Further data analysis of the scale revealed that RSSS is an adequate assessment tool of stress response in adults to be used in further research and clinical settings, with good psychometric characteristics, adequate divergent and convergent validity, good temporal stability and high internal consistency.

Keywords: Assessment, stress events, stress response, stress vulnerability.

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, Jung Kyu Choi, Yong Ju Kwak, Oh Hyeon Jeon, Woo Young Jung

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In this study, we investigated the buckling performance of basalt fiber reinforced polymer (BFRP) sandwich infill panels. Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) is a major evolution for energy dissipation when used as infill material of frame structure, a basic Polymer Matrix Composite (PMC) infill wall system consists of two FRP laminates surrounding an infill of foam core. Furthermore, this type of component is for retrofitting and strengthening frame structure to withstand the seismic disaster. In-plane compression was considered in the numerical analysis with ABAQUS platform to determine the buckling failure load of BFRP infill panel system. The present result shows that the sandwich BFRP infill panel system has higher resistance to buckling failure than those of glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) infill panel system, i.e. 16% increase in buckling resistance capacity.

Keywords: Basalt fiber reinforced polymer, buckling performance, FEM analysis, sandwich infill panel.

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Authors: Emad Amar, Tawfik Khattab, Fatma Zada

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Predicting earthquakes is an important issue in the study of geography. Accurate prediction of earthquakes can help people to take effective measures to minimize the loss of personal and economic damage, such as large casualties, destruction of buildings and broken of traffic, occurred within a few seconds. United States Geological Survey (USGS) science organization provides reliable scientific information about Earthquake Existed throughout history & the Preliminary database from the National Center Earthquake Information (NEIC) show some useful factors to predict an earthquake in a seismic area like Aleutian Arc in the U.S. state of Alaska. The main advantage of this prediction method that it does not require any assumption, it makes prediction according to the future evolution of the object's time series. The article compares between simulation data result from trained BP and RBF neural network versus actual output result from the system calculations. Therefore, this article focuses on analysis of data relating to real earthquakes. Evaluation results show better accuracy and higher speed by using radial basis functions (RBF) neural network.

Keywords: BP neural network, Prediction, RBF neural network.

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Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

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The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: Agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes.

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Authors: C. Iihoshi, G.A. MacRae, G.W. Rodgers, J.G. Chase

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Slab sliding system (SSS) with Coulomb friction  interface between slab and supporting frame is a passive structural  vibration control technology. The system can significantly reduce the  slab acceleration and accompanied lateral force of the frame. At the  same time it is expected to cause the slab displacement magnification  by sliding movement. To obtain the general comprehensive seismic  response of a single story structure, inelastic response spectra were  computed for a large ensemble of ground motions and a practical range  of structural periods and friction coefficient values. It was shown that  long period structures have no trade-off relation between force  reduction and displacement magnification with respect to elastic  response, unlike short period structures. For structures with the  majority of mass in the slab, the displacement magnification value can  be predicted according to simple inelastic displacement relation for  inelastically responding SDOF structures because the system behaves  elastically to a SDOF structure.

 

Keywords: Earthquake, Isolation, Slab, Sliding.

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Authors: Ebrahim Khalilzadeh Vahidi, Maryam Mokhtari Malekabadi

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This paper highlights the importance of the selection of the building-s wall material,and the shortcomings of the most commonly used framed structures with masonry infills .The objective of this study is investigating the behavior of infill walls as structural components in existing structures.Structural infill walls are very important in structural behavior under earthquake effects. Structural capacity under the effect of earthquake,displacement and relative story displacement are affected by the structural irregularities .The presence of nonstructural masonry infill walls can modify extensively the global seismic behavior of framed buildings .The stability and integrity of reinforced concrete frames are enhanced by masonry infill walls. Masonry infill walls alter displacement and base shear of the frame as well. Short columns have great importance during earthquakes,because their failure may lead to additional structural failures and result in total building collapse. Consequently the effects of short columns are considered in this study.

Keywords: Short columns , Infill masonary wall , Buildings , Earthquake.

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Authors: M. R. Rouhi, S. Shafiei, A. Taghavipour, H. Adibi-Asl, A. Doosthoseini

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This research targets at alleviating the problem of range anxiety associated with the battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by considering mechanical and control aspects of the powertrain. In this way, all the energy consuming components and their effect on reducing the range of the BEV and battery life index are identified. On the other hand, an appropriate control strategy is designed to guarantee the performance of the BEV and the extended electric range which is evaluated by an extensive simulation procedure and a real-world driving schedule.

Keywords: Battery, electric vehicles EV, ultra-capacitor.

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Authors: Rajendra Kumar Isaac, Monisha Isaac

Abstract:

Climate variability and changes are the emerging challenges for Indian agriculture with the growing population to ensure national food security. A study was conducted to assess the Climatic Change effects in medium to low altitude areas of the Himalayan region causing changes in land use and cereal crop productivity with the various climatic parameters. The rainfall and temperature changes from 1951 to 2013 were studied at four locations of varying altitudes, namely Hardwar, Rudra Prayag, Uttar Kashi and Tehri Garwal. It was observed that there is noticeable increment in temperature on all the four locations. It was surprisingly observed that the mean rainfall intensity of 30 minutes duration has increased at the rate of 0.1 mm/hours since 2000. The study shows that the combined effect of increasing temperature, rainfall, runoff and urbanization at the mid-Himalayan region is causing an increase in various climatic disasters and changes in agriculture patterns. A noticeable change in cropping patterns, crop productivity and land use change was observed. Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are necessary to ensure that sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture. Appropriate information is necessary for farmers, as well as planners and decision makers for developing, disseminating and adopting climate-smart technologies.

Keywords: Climate variability, agriculture, land use, mitigation strategies.

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Authors: A. Khosravi, S. Ghadirian, J. S. McCartney

Abstract:

Evaluation of the seismic-induced settlement of an unsaturated soil layer depends on several variables, among which the small strain shear modulus, G_max, and soil’s state of stress have been demonstrated to be of particular significance. Recent interpretation of trends in G_max revealed considerable effects of the degree of saturation and hydraulic hysteresis on the shear stiffness of soils in unsaturated states. Accordingly, the soil layer is expected to experience different settlement behaviors depending on the soil saturation and seasonal weathering conditions. In this study, a semi-empirical formulation was adapted to extend an existing G_max model to infer hysteretic effects along different paths of the SWRC including scanning curves. The suitability of the proposed approach is validated against experimental results from a suction-controlled resonant column test and from data reported in literature. The model was observed to follow the experimental data along different paths of the SWRC, and showed a slight hysteresis in shear modulus along the scanning curves.

Keywords: Hydraulic hysteresis, Scanning path, Small strain shear modulus, Unsaturated soil.

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