Search results for: fuzzy multi-criteria decision making

Authors: Sun K. Yoo, Ki-Chang Nam, Hyun-Young Shin, Ho-Seong Moon, Hee Cheol Kang

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Automated intelligent, clinical decision support systems generally promote to help or to assist physicians and patients regarding to prevention of diseases or treatment of illnesses using computer represented knowledge and information. In this paper, assessment factors affecting the proper design of clinical decision support system were investigated. The required procedure steps for gathering the data from clinical trial and extracting the information from large volume of healthcare repositories were listed, which are necessary for validation and verification of evidence-based implementation of clinical decision support system. The goal of this paper is to extract useful evaluation factors affecting the quality of the clinical decision support system in the design, development, and implementation of a computer-based decision support system.

Keywords: Evaluation, Clinical Decision Support System.

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Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie

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This paper aims at improving the performance of the tableting process using statistical quality control and fuzzy goal programming. The tableting process was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for three critical responses including the averages of a tablet’s weight, hardness, and thickness. At initial process factor settings, the estimated process capability index values for the tablet’s averages of weight, hardness, and thickness were 0.58, 3.36, and 0.88, respectively. The L₉ array was utilized to provide experimentation design. Fuzzy goal programming was then employed to find the combination of optimal factor settings. Optimization results showed that the process capability index values for a tablet’s averages of weight, hardness, and thickness were improved to 1.03, 4.42, and 1.42, respectively. Such improvements resulted in significant savings in quality and production costs.

Keywords: Fuzzy goal programming, control charts, process capability, tablet optimization.

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Authors: Daesung Moon, Woo-Yong Choi, Kiyoung Moon

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Fuzzy fingerprint vault is a recently developed cryptographic construct based on the polynomial reconstruction problem to secure critical data with the fingerprint data. However, the previous researches are not applicable to the fingerprint having a few minutiae since they use a fixed degree of the polynomial without considering the number of fingerprint minutiae. To solve this problem, we use an adaptive degree of the polynomial considering the number of minutiae extracted from each user. Also, we apply multiple polynomials to avoid the possible degradation of the security of a simple solution(i.e., using a low-degree polynomial). Based on the experimental results, our method can make the possible attack difficult 2192 times more than using a low-degree polynomial as well as verify the users having a few minutiae.

Keywords: Fuzzy vault, fingerprint recognition multiple polynomials.

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Authors: Shreyash Sinai Kunde, Siddhang Tendulkar, Shiv Prakash Gupta, Gaurav Kumar, Suresh Mikkili

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One of the major power quality concerns in modern times is the problem of current harmonics. The current harmonics is caused due to the increase in non-linear loads which is largely dominated by power electronics devices. The Shunt active filtering is one of the best solutions for mitigating current harmonics. This paper describes a fuzzy logic controller based (FLC) based three Phase Shunt active Filter to achieve low current harmonic distortion (THD) and Reactive power compensation. The performance of fuzzy logic controller is analysed under both balanced sinusoidal and unbalanced sinusoidal source condition. The above controller serves the purpose of maintaining DC Capacitor Voltage constant. The proposed shunt active filter uses hysteresis current controller for current control of IGBT based PWM inverter. The simulation results of model in Simulink MATLAB reveals satisfying results.

Keywords: Shunt active filter, Current harmonics, Fuzzy logic controller, Hysteresis current controller.

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Authors: Mohamad K. Hasan, Hameed Al-Qaheri

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Optimization plays an important role in most real world applications that support decision makers to take the right decision regarding the strategic directions and operations of the system they manage. Solutions for traffic management and traffic congestion problems are considered major problems that most decision making authorities for cities around the world are looking for. This review paper gives a full description of the traffic problem as part of the transportation planning process and present a view as a framework of urban transportation system analysis where the core of the system is a transportation network equilibrium model that is based on optimization techniques and that can also be used for evaluating an alternative solution or a combination of alternative solutions for the traffic congestion. Different transportation network equilibrium models are reviewed from the sequential approach to the multiclass combining trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, trip assignment and departure time model. A GIS-Based intelligent decision support system framework for urban transportation system analysis is suggested for implementation where the selection of optimized alternative solutions, single or packages, will be based on an intelligent agent rather than human being which would lead to reduction in time, cost and the elimination of the difficulty, by human being, for finding the best solution to the traffic congestion problem.

Keywords: Multiclass simultaneous transportation equilibrium models, transportation planning, urban transportation systems analysis, intelligent decision support system.

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Authors: Bainian Li, Kongsheng Zhang, Jian Xu

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In this paper we study the fuzzy c-mean clustering algorithm combined with principal components method. Demonstratively analysis indicate that the new clustering method is well rather than some clustering algorithms. We also consider the validity of clustering method.

Keywords: FCM algorithm, Principal Components Analysis, Clustervalidity

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Authors: J. Mehena, M. C. Adhikary

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In this paper, a spatial multiple-kernel fuzzy C-means (SMKFCM) algorithm is introduced for segmentation problem. A linear combination of multiples kernels with spatial information is used in the kernel FCM (KFCM) and the updating rules for the linear coefficients of the composite kernels are derived as well. Fuzzy cmeans (FCM) based techniques have been widely used in medical image segmentation problem due to their simplicity and fast convergence. The proposed SMKFCM algorithm provides us a new flexible vehicle to fuse different pixel information in medical image segmentation and detection of MR images. To evaluate the robustness of the proposed segmentation algorithm in noisy environment, we add noise in medical brain tumor MR images and calculated the success rate and segmentation accuracy. From the experimental results it is clear that the proposed algorithm has better performance than those of other FCM based techniques for noisy medical MR images.

Keywords: Clustering, fuzzy C-means, image segmentation, MR images, multiple kernels.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

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In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate. We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic forecasting used in academic research and in research and application by the governmental and other institutions

Keywords: Linear models, Macroeconomics, Neuro-Fuzzy, Non-Linear models

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Authors: Mohammad Hasan Raouf, Ebrahim Rasooli Anarmarzi, Hamid Lesani, Javad Olamaei

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This paper proposes the application of a hierarchical fuzzy system (HFS) based on multi-input power system stabilizer (MPSS) and also Static Var Compensator (SVC) in multi-machine environment.The number of rules grows exponentially with the number of variables in a conventional fuzzy logic system. The proposed HFS method is developed to solve this problem. To reduce the number of rules the HFS consists of a number of low-dimensional fuzzy systems in a hierarchical structure. In fact, by using HFS the total number of involved rules increases only linearly with the number of input variables. In the MPSS, to have better efficiency an auxiliary signal of reactive power deviation (ΔQ) is added with ΔP+ Δω input type Power system stabilizer (PSS). Phasor model of SVC is described and used in this paper. The performances of MPSS, Conventional power system stabilizer (CPSS), hierarchical Fuzzy Multi-input Power System Stabilizer (HFMPSS) and the proposed method in damping inter-area mode of oscillation are examined in response to disturbances. By using digital simulations the comparative study is illustrated. It can be seen that the proposed PSS is performing satisfactorily within the whole range of disturbances.

Keywords: Power system stabilizer (PSS), hierarchical fuzzysystem (HFS), Static VAR compensator (SVC)

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Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

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This paper examines the problem of designing a robust H8 state-feedback controller for a class of nonlinear two-time scale systems with Markovian Jumps described by a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear two-time scale systems to have an H8 performance are derived. The proposed approach does not involve the separation of states into slow and fast ones and it can be applied not only to standard, but also to nonstandard nonlinear two-time scale systems. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the design developed in this paper.

Keywords: TS fuzzy, Markovian jumps, LMI, two-time scale systems.

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Authors: S. Cherif, S. Marcos, M. Jaidane

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In this paper the behavior of the decision feedback equalizers (DFEs) adapted by the decision-directed or the constant modulus blind algorithms is presented. An analysis of the error surface of the corresponding criterion cost functions is first developed. With the intention of avoiding the ill-convergence of the algorithm, the paper proposes to modify the shape of the cost function error surface by using a soft decision instead of the hard one. This was shown to reduce the influence of false decisions and to smooth the undesirable minima. Modified algorithms using the soft decision during a pseudo-training phase with an automatic switch to the properly tracking phase are then derived. Computer simulations show that these modified algorithms present better ability to avoid local minima than conventional ones.

Keywords: Blind DFEs, decision-directed algorithm, constant modulus algorithm, cost function analysis, convergence analysis, soft decision.

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

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Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins’s problem, Double-input rule module, Fuzzy inference model, Obstacle avoidance, Single-input rule module.

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Authors: Pablo Cardozo Herrera

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In a dynamic market of Information Technology (IT) Service and with high quality demands and high performance requirements in decreasing costs, it is imperative that IT companies invest organizational effort in order to increase the effectiveness of their Information Technology Service Management (ITSM) processes through the improvement of ITSM project management and through solid support to the strategic decision-making process of IT directors. In this article, the author presents an analysis of common issues of IT companies around the world, with strategic needs of information unmet that provoke their ITSM processes and projects management that do not achieve the effectiveness and efficiency expected of their results. In response to the issues raised, the author proposes a framework consisting of an innovative theoretical framework model of ITSM management and a technological solution aligned to the Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) good practices guidance and ISO/IEC 20000-1 requirements. The article describes a research that proves the proposed framework is able to integrate, manage and coordinate in a holistic way, measurable and auditable, all ITSM processes and projects of IT organization and utilize the effectiveness assessment achieved for their strategic decision-making process increasing the process maturity level and improving the capacity of an efficient management.

Keywords: Innovation in IT services, ITSM processes, ITIL and ISO/IEC 20000-1, IT service management, IT service excellence.

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Authors: Radim Farana, Bogdan Walek, Michal Janosek, Jaroslav Zacek

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This paper presents the advantages of fuzzy control use in technological processes control. The paper presents a real application of the Linguistic Fuzzy-Logic Control, developed at the University of Ostrava for the control of physical models in the Intelligent Systems Laboratory. The paper presents an example of a sensitive non-linear model, such as a magnetic levitation model and obtained results which show how modern information technologies can help to solve actual technical problems. A special method based on the LFLC controller with partial components is presented in this paper followed by the method of automatic context change, which is very helpful to achieve more accurate control results. The main advantage of the used system is its robustness in changing conditions demonstrated by comparing with conventional PID controller. This technology and real models are also used as a background for problem-oriented teaching, realized at the department for master students and their collaborative as well as individual final projects.

Keywords: Control, fuzzy logic, sensitive system, technological proves.

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Authors: Pisit Potjanajaruwit

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The objectives of the study were to determine the marketing mix factors that influencing tourist’s destination decision making for cultural tourism in the Chonburi province. Both quantitative and qualitative data were applied in this study. The samples of 400 cases for quantitative analysis were tourists (both Thai and foreign) who were interested in cultural tourism in the Chonburi province, and traveled to cultural sites in Chonburi and 14 representatives from provincial tourism committee of Chonburi and local tourism experts. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. The study found that Thai and foreign tourists are influenced by different important marketing mix factors. The important factors for Thai respondents were physical evidence, price, people, and place at high importance level. For foreign respondents, physical evidence, price, people, and process were high importance level, whereas, product, place and promotion were moderate importance level.

Keywords: Chonburi Province, Decision Making for cultural tourism, Marketing Mixed.

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Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

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This paper investigates the problem of designing a robust state-feedback controller for a class of uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear systems that guarantees the L2-gain from an exogenous input to a regulated output is less than or equal to a prescribed value. First, we approximate this class of uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear systems by a class of uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models with Markovian jumps. Then, based on an LMI approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear systems to have an H performance are derived. An illustrative example is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed design techniques.

Keywords: Robust H, Fuzzy Control, Markovian Jump Systems, LMI.

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Authors: Tao Zhao, Xin Wang

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With the increasing complexity of engineering problems, the traditional, single-objective and deterministic optimization method can not meet people-s requirements. A multi-objective fuzzy optimization model of resource input is built for M chlor-alkali chemical eco-industrial park in this paper. First, the model is changed into the form that can be solved by genetic algorithm using fuzzy theory. And then, a fitness function is constructed for genetic algorithm. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show that the method compared with traditional single-objective optimization method is more practical and efficient.

Keywords: Fitness function, genetic algorithm, multi-objectivefuzzy optimization, satisfaction degree membership function.

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Authors: G. M. Arun Prasath, N. Arthi

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This work proposed a multi-objective mathematical programming approach to select the appropriate supply network elements. The multi-item multi-objective production-distribution inventory model is formulated with possible constraints under fuzzy environment. The unit cost has taken under fuzzy environment. The inventory model and warehouse location model has combined to formulate the production-distribution inventory model. Warehouse location is important in supply chain network. Particularly, if a company maintains more selling stores it cannot maintain individual secondary warehouse near to each selling store. Hence, maintaining the optimum number of secondary warehouses is important. Hence, the combined mathematical model is formulated to reduce the total expenditure of the organization by arranging the network of minimum number of secondary warehouses. Numerical example has been taken to illustrate the proposed model.

Keywords: Fuzzy inventory model, warehouse location model, triangular fuzzy number, secondary warehouse, LINGO software.

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Authors: Zahra Morshedi

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Environmental considerations have become an integral part of developmental thinking and decision making in many countries. It is growing rapidly in importance as a discipline of its own. Preventive approaches have been used at the evolutional process of environmental management as a broad and dynamic system for dealing with pollution and environmental degradation. In this regard, Environmental Assessment as an activity for identification and prediction of project’s impacts carried out in the world and its legal significance dates back to late 1960. In Iran, according to the Article 2 of Environmental Protection Act, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) should be prepared for seven categories of project. This article has been actively implementing by Department of Environment at 1997. World Bank in 1989 attempted to introducing application of Environmental Assessment for making decision about projects which are required financial assistance in developing countries. So, preparing EIA for obtaining World Bank loan was obligated. Alborz Project is one of the World Bank Projects in Iran which is environmentally significant. Seven out of ten W.B safeguard policies were considered at this project. In this paper, Alborz project, objectives, safeguard policies and role of environmental management will be elaborated

Keywords: AILWMP, EIA, Environmental Management, Safeguard Policies.

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for the classification of an unstructured format description for identification of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support file format selection with just the unstructured text description that comprises the most important format features for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the file format indentification method employs file format classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with an estimation of required file format. Our goal is to make use of a format specification knowledge base aggregated from a different Web sources in order to select file format for a particular institution. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert, the file format for his institution. The proposed methods facilitate the selection of file format and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and specifications of file formats. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the file formats is presented as a file format vocabulary that comprises most common terms that are characteristic for all researched formats. The goal is to suggest a particular file format based on this vocabulary for analysis by an expert. The sample file format calculation and the calculation results including probabilities are presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: Data mining, digital libraries, digital preservation, file format.

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Authors: N. Chayaopas, W. Assawinchaichote

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In order to maximize energy capturing from wind energy, controlling the doubly fed induction generator to have optimal power from the wind, generator speed and output electrical power control in wind energy system have a great importance due to the nonlinear behavior of wind velocities. In this paper purposes the design of a control scheme is developed for power control of wind energy system via H∞ fuzzy integral controller. Firstly, the nonlinear system is represented in term of a TS fuzzy control design via linear matrix inequality approach to find the optimal controller to have an H∞ performance are derived. The proposed control method extract the maximum energy from the wind and overcome the nonlinearity and disturbances problems of wind energy system which give good tracking performance and high efficiency power output of the DFIG.

Keywords: H∞ fuzzy integral control, linear matrix inequality, wind energy system, doubly fed induction generator (DFIG).

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Authors: Omid Heydarnia, Akbar Allahverdizadeh, Behnam Dadashzadeh, M. R. Sayyed Noorani

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Underactuated biped robots control is one of the interesting topics in robotics. The main difficulties are its highly nonlinear dynamics, open-loop instability, and discrete event at the end of the gait. One of the methods to control underactuated systems is the partial feedback linearization, but it is not robust against uncertainties and disturbances that restrict its performance to control biped walking and running. In this paper, fuzzy partial feedback linearization is presented to overcome its drawback. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the proposed method to generate stable and robust biped walking and running gaits.

Keywords: Underactuated system, biped robot, fuzzy control, partial feedback linearization.

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Authors: A. Ghaffari, A. Meghdari, D. Naderi, S. Eslami

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In this paper an algorithm based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller is provided to enhance the tipover stability of mobile manipulators when they are subjected to predefined trajectories for the end-effector and the vehicle. The controller creates proper configurations for the manipulator to prevent the robot from being overturned. The optimal configuration and thus the most favorable control are obtained through soft computing approaches including a combination of genetic algorithm, neural networks, and fuzzy logic. The proposed algorithm, in this paper, is that a look-up table is designed by employing the obtained values from the genetic algorithm in order to minimize the performance index and by using this data base, rule bases are designed for the ANFIS controller and will be exerted on the actuators to enhance the tipover stability of the mobile manipulator. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Mobile Manipulator, Tipover Stability Enhancement, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Controller System, Soft Computing.

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Authors: Kavala Kiran Kumar, R. Govardhana Rao

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Active power filter continues to be a powerful tool to control harmonics in power systems thereby enhancing the power quality. This paper presents a fuzzy tuned PID controller based shunt active filter to diminish the harmonics caused by non linear loads like thyristor bridge rectifiers and imbalanced loads. Here Fuzzy controller provides the tuning of PID, based on firing of thyristor bridge rectifiers and variations in input rms current. The shunt APF system is implemented with three phase current controlled Voltage Source Inverter (VSI) and is connected at the point of common coupling for compensating the current harmonics by injecting equal but opposite filter currents. These controllers are capable of controlling dc-side capacitor voltage and estimating reference currents. Hysteresis Current Controller (HCC) is used to generate switching signals for the voltage source inverter. Simulation studies are carried out with non linear loads like thyristor bridge rectifier along with unbalanced loads and the results proved that the APF along with fuzzy tuned PID controller work flawlessly for different firing angles of non linear load.

Keywords: Active power filters (APF), Fuzzy logic controller (FLC), Hysteresis current controller (HCC), PID, Total harmonic Distortion (THD), Voltage source inverter (VSI).

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Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus, Isnanto, Annisa Nugraheni, Farida Rahmawati

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A Negotiation Support is required on a value-based decision to enable each stakeholder to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with the other stakeholders. This study demonstrates a process of negotiation support model for selection of a building system from value-based design perspective. The perspective is based on comparison of function and cost of a building system. Multi criteria decision techniques were applied to determine the relative value of the alternative solutions for performing the function. A satisfying option game theory are applied to the criteria of value-based decision which are LCC (life cycle cost) and function based FAST. The results demonstrate a negotiation process to select priorities of a building system. The support model can be extended to an automated negotiation by combining value based decision method, group decision and negotiation support.

Keywords: NSS, Value-based, Decision, Construction.

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Authors: Stella Y. Ng, John B. Peacock, Kay Chuan Tan

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This paper discusses the use of a computerized test to measure the decision-making abilities of teenage basketball players in Singapore. There are five sections in this test – Competitive state anxiety inventory-2 (CSAI-2) questionnaire (measures player’s cognitive anxiety, somatic anxiety and self-confidence), Corsi block-tapping task (measures player’s short-term spatial memory), situation awareness global assessment technique (SAGAT) (measures players’ situation awareness in a basketball game), multiple choice questions on basketball knowledge (measures players’ knowledge of basketball rules and concepts), and lastly, a learning test that requires participants to recall and recognize basketball set plays (measures player’s ability to learn and recognize set plays). A total of 25 basketball players, aged 14 to 16 years old, from three secondary school teams participated in this experiment. The results that these basketball players obtained from this cognitive test were then used to compare with their physical fitness and basketball performance.

Keywords: Basketball, cognitive abilities, computerized test, decision-making.

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Authors: Xiangbin Zhu

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EDF (Early Deadline First) algorithm is a very important scheduling algorithm for real- time systems . The EDF algorithm assigns priorities to each job according to their absolute deadlines and has good performance when the real-time system is not overloaded. When the real-time system is overloaded, many misdeadlines will be produced. But these misdeadlines are not uniformly distributed, which usually focus on some tasks. In this paper, we present an adaptive fuzzy control scheduling based on EDF algorithm. The improved algorithm can have a rectangular distribution of misdeadline ratios among all real-time tasks when the system is overloaded. To evaluate the effectiveness of the improved algorithm, we have done extensive simulation studies. The simulation results show that the new algorithm is superior to the old algorithm.

Keywords: Fuzzy control, real-time systems, EDF, misdeadline ratio.

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Authors: Masrour Dowlatabadi, Jalil Shirazi

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In this paper, an improved edge detection algorithm based on fuzzy combination of mathematical morphology and wavelet transform is proposed. The combined method is proposed to overcome the limitation of wavelet based edge detection and mathematical morphology based edge detection in noisy images. Experimental results show superiority of the proposed method, as compared to the traditional Prewitt, wavelet based and morphology based edge detection methods. The proposed method is an effective edge detection method for noisy image and keeps clear and continuous edges.

Keywords: Edge detection, Wavelet transform, Mathematical morphology, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Abdullah M. Almeshal, Mohammad R. Alenezi, Talal H. Alzanki

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This paper presents a hybrid fuzzy logic control strategy for a unicycle trajectory following robot on irregular terrains. In literature, researchers have presented the design of path tracking controllers of mobile robots on non-frictional surface. In this work, the robot is simulated to drive on irregular terrains with contrasting frictional profiles of peat and rough gravel. A hybrid fuzzy logic controller is utilised to stabilise and drive the robot precisely with the predefined trajectory and overcome the frictional impact. The controller gains and scaling factors were optimised using spiral dynamics optimisation algorithm to minimise the mean square error of the linear and angular velocities of the unicycle robot. The robot was simulated on various frictional surfaces and terrains and the controller was able to stabilise the robot with a superior performance that is shown via simulation results.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic control, mobile robot, trajectory tracking, spiral dynamic algorithm.

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Authors: Min Min Swe Zin

Abstract:

This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.

Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.

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