Search results for: World food model.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9187

Search results for: World food model.

8467 Analysis of P, d and 3He Elastically Scattered by 11B Nuclei at Different Energies

Authors: Ahmed H. Amer, A. Amar, Sh. Hamada, I. I. Bondouk

Abstract:

Elastic scattering of Protons and deuterons from 11B nuclei at different p, d energies have been analyzed within the framework of optical model code (ECIS88). The elastic scattering of 3He+11B nuclear system at different 3He energies have been analyzed using double folding model code (FRESCO). The real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Volumetric integrals of the real and imaginary potential depths (JR, JW) have been calculated for 3He+11B system. The agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical calculations in the whole angular range is fairly good. Normalization factor Nr is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 1.236.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model parameters, double folding model, nuclear density distribution.

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8466 The Role of the Shamanistic Music in the Kazakh Folk Culture

Authors: T. H. Gabitov, M. Serikkyzy, G. A. Abdurazakova, A. A. Merkhayeva, N. ZH. Mukhabayev

Abstract:

The relics of traditional folk culture in Kazakhstan are ceremonies or their fragments - such as weddings, funerals, shamanism. The world of spiritual creatures, spirits-protectors, spirits-helpers, injury spirits, spirits of illnesses, etc., is described in detail in shamanic rites (in Kazakh culture it is called bakslyk). The study of these displays of folk culture, which reflect the peoples` ethnic mentality or notions about the structure, values and hierarchies of the universe, includes collection and recording of the field materials and their interpretation, i.e. reconstruction of those meanings which were initially embodied or “coded" in folklore. A distinctive feature of Kazakh nomadic culture is its self-preservation and actualization, almost untouched the ancient mythologies of the world, in particular, the mythologies connected with music, musical instruments and the creator of music. Within the frameworks of the traditional culture the word and the music keep the sacral meaning. The ritual melodies and what they carry – the holly, and at the same time unexplored, powerful and threatening, uncontrolled by people world – keep on attributing the soul to all, connected with culture.

Keywords: Shamanism, ritual, folk culture, music.

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8465 Designing a Framework for Network Security Protection

Authors: Eric P. Jiang

Abstract:

As the Internet continues to grow at a rapid pace as the primary medium for communications and commerce and as telecommunication networks and systems continue to expand their global reach, digital information has become the most popular and important information resource and our dependence upon the underlying cyber infrastructure has been increasing significantly. Unfortunately, as our dependency has grown, so has the threat to the cyber infrastructure from spammers, attackers and criminal enterprises. In this paper, we propose a new machine learning based network intrusion detection framework for cyber security. The detection process of the framework consists of two stages: model construction and intrusion detection. In the model construction stage, a semi-supervised machine learning algorithm is applied to a collected set of network audit data to generate a profile of normal network behavior and in the intrusion detection stage, input network events are analyzed and compared with the patterns gathered in the profile, and some of them are then flagged as anomalies should these events are sufficiently far from the expected normal behavior. The proposed framework is particularly applicable to the situations where there is only a small amount of labeled network training data available, which is very typical in real world network environments.

Keywords: classification, data analysis and mining, network intrusion detection, semi-supervised learning.

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8464 Periodic Oscillations in a Delay Population Model

Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a nonlinear delay population model is investigated. Choosing the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we demonstrate that Hopf bifurcation will occur when the delay exceeds a critical value. Global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established. Numerical simulations supporting the theoretical findings are included.

Keywords: Population model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Global Hopf bifurcation.

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8463 Ethnobotany and Distribution of Dioscoreahispida Dennst. (Dioscoreaceae) in Besut, Marang and Setiu Districts of Terengganu, Peninsular Malaysia

Authors: M. Nashriyah, T. Salmah, M.Y. NurAtiqah, O. Siti Nor Indah, A.W. MuhamadAzhar, S. Munirah, Y. Nornasuha, A. Abdul Manaf

Abstract:

Dioscorea species or commonly named as yam is reported to be one of the major food sources worldwide. This ethnobotanical study was conducted to document local knowledge and potentials of DioscoreahispidaDennst. and to investigate and record its distribution in three districts of Terengganu. Information was gathered from 23 villagers from three districts of Besut, Marang and Setiu by using semi-structured questionnaire. The villagers were randomly selected and no appointment was made prior to the visits. For distribution, the location of Dioscoreahispida was recorded by using the Global Positioning System (GPS). The villagers identified Dioscoreahispida or locally named ubigadong by looking at the physical characteristics that include its leaf shape, stem and the color of the tuber-s flesh. The villagers used Dioscoreahispida in many ways in their life such as for food, medicinal purposes and fish poison.

Keywords: Dioscoreahispida, ethnobotany, intoxicating yam, ubigadong, Terengganu.

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8462 Improved Fuzzy Neural Modeling for Underwater Vehicles

Authors: O. Hassanein, Sreenatha G. Anavatti, Tapabrata Ray

Abstract:

The dynamics of the Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are highly nonlinear and time varying and the hydrodynamic coefficients of vehicles are difficult to estimate accurately because of the variations of these coefficients with different navigation conditions and external disturbances. This study presents the on-line system identification of AUV dynamics to obtain the coupled nonlinear dynamic model of AUV as a black box. This black box has an input-output relationship based upon on-line adaptive fuzzy model and adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model techniques to overcome the uncertain external disturbance and the difficulties of modelling the hydrodynamic forces of the AUVs instead of using the mathematical model with hydrodynamic parameters estimation. The models- parameters are adapted according to the back propagation algorithm based upon the error between the identified model and the actual output of the plant. The proposed ANFN model adopts a functional link neural network (FLNN) as the consequent part of the fuzzy rules. Thus, the consequent part of the ANFN model is a nonlinear combination of input variables. Fuzzy control system is applied to guide and control the AUV using both adaptive models and mathematical model. Simulation results show the superiority of the proposed adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model in tracking of the behavior of the AUV accurately even in the presence of noise and disturbance.

Keywords: AUV, AUV dynamic model, fuzzy control, fuzzy modelling, adaptive fuzzy control, back propagation, system identification, neural fuzzy model, FLNN.

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8461 Balancing Tourism and Environment: The ETM Model

Authors: U.V Jose, Muhammed Nahar, Vijayakumar S., Sonia Jose

Abstract:

Environment both endowed and built are essential for tourism. However tourism and environment maintains a complex relationship, where in most cases environment is at the receiving end. Many tourism development activities have adverse environmental effects, mainly emanating from construction of general infrastructure and tourism facilities. These negative impacts of tourism can lead to the destruction of precious natural resources on which it depends. These effects vary between locations; and its effect on a hill destination is highly critical. This study aims at developing a Sustainable Tourism Planning Model for an environmentally sensitive tourism destination in Kerala, India. Being part of the Nilgiri mountain ranges, Munnar falls in the Western Ghats, one of the biological hotspots in the world. Endowed with a unique high altitude environment Munnar inherits highly significant ecological wealth. Giving prime importance to the protection of this ecological heritage, the study proposes a tourism planning model with resource conservation and sustainability as the paramount focus. Conceiving a novel approach towards sustainable tourism planning, the study proposes to assess tourism attractions using Ecological Sensitivity Index (ESI) and Tourism Attractiveness Index (TAI). Integration of these two indices will form the Ecology – Tourism Matrix (ETM), outlining the base for tourism planning in an environmentally sensitive destination. The ETM Matrix leads to a classification of tourism nodes according to its Conservation Significance and Tourism Significance. The spatial integration of such nodes based on the Hub & Spoke Principle constitutes sub – regions within the STZ. Ensuing analyses lead to specific guidelines for the STZ as a whole, specific tourism nodes, hubs and sub-regions. The study results in a multi – dimensional output, viz., (1) Classification system for tourism nodes in an environmentally sensitive region/ destination (2) Conservation / Tourism Development Strategies and Guidelines for the micro and macro regions and (3) A Sustainable Tourism Planning Tool particularly for Ecologically Sensitive Destinations, which can be adapted for other destinations as well.

Keywords: Tourism, Environment, Spatial Planning, Model

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8460 A Hybrid Recommender System based on Collaborative Filtering and Cloud Model

Authors: Chein-Shung Hwang, Ruei-Siang Fong

Abstract:

User-based Collaborative filtering (CF), one of the most prevailing and efficient recommendation techniques, provides personalized recommendations to users based on the opinions of other users. Although the CF technique has been successfully applied in various applications, it suffers from serious sparsity problems. The cloud-model approach addresses the sparsity problems by constructing the user-s global preference represented by a cloud eigenvector. The user-based CF approach works well with dense datasets while the cloud-model CF approach has a greater performance when the dataset is sparse. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach that integrates the predictions from both the user-based CF and the cloud-model CF approaches. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid approach can ameliorate the sparsity problem and provide an improved prediction quality.

Keywords: Cloud model, Collaborative filtering, Hybridrecommender system

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8459 Space Vector PWM and Model Predictive Control for Voltage Source Inverter Control

Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a comparative assessment of Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for two-level three phase (2L-3P) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). VSI with associated system is subjected to both control techniques and the results are compared. Matlab/Simulink was used to model, simulate and validate the control schemes. Findings of this study show that MPC is superior to SVPWM in terms of total harmonic distortion (THD) and implementation.

Keywords: Model Predictive Control, Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation, Voltage Source Inverter.

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8458 Numerical Investigation of Wave Interaction with Double Vertical Slotted Walls

Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

Abstract:

Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: Coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient.

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8457 Model Order Reduction for Frequency Response and Effect of Order of Method for Matching Condition

Authors: Aref Ghafouri, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

Abstract:

In this paper, model order reduction method is used for approximation in linear and nonlinearity aspects in some experimental data. This method can be used for obtaining offline reduced model for approximation of experimental data and can produce and follow the data and order of system and also it can match to experimental data in some frequency ratios. In this study, the method is compared in different experimental data and influence of choosing of order of the model reduction for obtaining the best and sufficient matching condition for following the data is investigated in format of imaginary and reality part of the frequency response curve and finally the effect and important parameter of number of order reduction in nonlinear experimental data is explained further.

Keywords: Frequency response, Order of model reduction, frequency matching condition.

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8456 A New Physical Modeling for Multiquantum Well Structure APD Considering Nonuniformity of Electric Field in Active Regin

Authors: F. Barzegar, M. H. Sheikhi

Abstract:

In the present work we model a Multiquantum Well structure Separate Absorption and Charge Multiplication Avalanche Photodiode (MQW-SACM-APD), while the Absorption region coincide with the MQW. We consider the nonuniformity of electric field using split-step method in active region. This model is based on the carrier rate equations in the different regions of the device. Using the model we obtain the photocurrent, and dark current. As an example, InGaAs/InP SACM-APD and MQW-SACM-APD are simulated. There is a good agreement between the simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: Avalanche Photodiode, Physical Model, MultiquantumWell, Split Step Method.

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8455 The Ability of Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Based On Nelson-Siegel and Svensson Model

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

Abstract:

Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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8454 A Hybrid Algorithm for Collaborative Transportation Planning among Carriers

Authors: Elham Jelodari Mamaghani, Christian Prins, Haoxun Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, there is concentration on collaborative transportation planning (CTP) among multiple carriers with pickup and delivery requests and time windows. This problem is a vehicle routing problem with constraints from standard vehicle routing problems and new constraints from a real-world application. In the problem, each carrier has a finite number of vehicles, and each request is a pickup and delivery request with time window. Moreover, each carrier has reserved requests, which must be served by itself, whereas its exchangeable requests can be outsourced to and served by other carriers. This collaboration among carriers can help them to reduce total transportation costs. A mixed integer programming model is proposed to the problem. To solve the model, a hybrid algorithm that combines Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing (GASA) is proposed. This algorithm takes advantages of GASA at the same time. After tuning the parameters of the algorithm with the Taguchi method, the experiments are conducted and experimental results are provided for the hybrid algorithm. The results are compared with those obtained by a commercial solver. The comparison indicates that the GASA significantly outperforms the commercial solver.

Keywords: Centralized collaborative transportation, collaborative transportation with pickup and delivery, collaborative transportation with time windows, hybrid algorithm of GA and SA.

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8453 Modeling Decentralized Source-Separation Systems for Urban Waste Management

Authors: Bernard J.H. Ng, Apostolos Giannis, Victor Chang, Rainer Stegmann, Jing-Yuan Wang

Abstract:

Decentralized eco-sanitation system is a promising and sustainable mode comparing to the century-old centralized conventional sanitation system. The decentralized concept relies on an environmentally and economically sound management of water, nutrient and energy fluxes. Source-separation systems for urban waste management collect different solid waste and wastewater streams separately to facilitate the recovery of valuable resources from wastewater (energy, nutrients). A resource recovery centre constituted for 20,000 people will act as the functional unit for the treatment of urban waste of a high-density population community, like Singapore. The decentralized system includes urine treatment, faeces and food waste co-digestion, and horticultural waste and organic fraction of municipal solid waste treatment in composting plants. A design model is developed to estimate the input and output in terms of materials and energy. The inputs of urine (yellow water, YW) and faeces (brown water, BW) are calculated by considering the daily mean production of urine and faeces by humans and the water consumption of no-mix vacuum toilet (0.2 and 1 L flushing water for urine and faeces, respectively). The food waste (FW) production is estimated to be 150 g wet weight/person/day. The YW is collected and discharged by gravity into tank. It was found that two days are required for urine hydrolysis and struvite precipitation. The maximum nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) recovery are 150-266 kg/day and 20-70 kg/day, respectively. In contrast, BW and FW are mixed for co-digestion in a thermophilic acidification tank and later a decentralized/centralized methanogenic reactor is used for biogas production. It is determined that 6.16-15.67 m3/h methane is produced which is equivalent to 0.07-0.19 kWh/ca/day. The digestion residues are treated with horticultural waste and organic fraction of municipal waste in co-composting plants.

Keywords: Decentralization, ecological sanitation, material flow analysis, source-separation

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8452 The Masquerade of Life, Our Many Selves and Issues of Privacy

Authors: Karen Armstrong

Abstract:

This paper explores the importance of privacy in a contemporary online world. Crucial to the discussion is the idea of the Lacanian postmodern fragmented self and the problem of how to ensure that we have room to fully explore various aspects of our personalities in an environment which is–or at least feels--safe and free from observation by others. The paper begins with an exploration of the idea of the self with particular regard to the ways in which contemporary life and technology seems to have multiplied the various faces or masks which we present in different contexts. A brief history of privacy and surveillance follows. Finally, the paper ends with an affirmation of the importance of private space as an essential component of our spiritual and emotional well-being in today-s wired world.

Keywords: Lacan, panopticon, postmodern, privacy, surveillance.

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8451 Sensory Evaluation of Diversified Sweet Potato Drinks among Consumers: Implication for Malnutrition Reduction in Nigeria

Authors: Meludu Nkiru T., Fakere Bosede Felicia

Abstract:

Diversification of the processing of crops is a very important way of reducing food insecurity, perishability of most perishable crops and generates verities. Sweet potato has been diversified in various ways by researchers through processing into different forms for consumption. The study considered diversifying the crop into different drinks by combining it with different high nutrient acceptable cereal. There was significant relationship between the educational background of the respondents and level of acceptability of the sweet potato drinks (χ 2 = 1.033 and P = 0.05). Interestingly, significant relationship existed between the most preferred sweet potato drink by the respondents and level of acceptability of the sweet potato drinks (r = 0.394, P = 0.031). The high level of acceptability of the drinks will lead to enhanced production of the crops required for the drinks that would assist in income generation and alleviating food and nutrition insecurity.

Keywords: Diversification, Malnutrition, Sensory Evaluation, Sweet Potato.

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8450 Predicting DHF Incidence in Northern Thailand using Time Series Analysis Technique

Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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8449 From I.A Richards to Web 3.0: Preparing Our Students for Tomorrow's World

Authors: Karen Armstrong

Abstract:

This paper offers suggestions for educators at all levels about how to better prepare our students for the future, by building on the past. The discussion begins with a summary of changes in the World Wide Web, especially as the term Web 3.0 is being heard. The bulk of the discussion is retrospective and concerned with an overview of traditional teaching and research approaches as they evolved during the 20th century beginning with those grounded in the Cartesian reality of IA Richards- (1929) Practical Criticism. The paper concludes with a proposal of five strategies which incorporate timeless elements from the past as well as cutting-edge elements from today, in order to better prepare our students for the future.

Keywords: Web 3.0, Web 2.0 IA Richards, literacy education, new literacies, technology, paradigm shifts.

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8448 Kinetic Study of Gluconic Acid Batch Fermentation by Aspergillus niger

Authors: Akbarningrum Fatmawati, Rudy Agustriyanto, Lindawati

Abstract:

Gluconic acid is one of interesting chemical products in industries such as detergents, leather, photographic, textile, and especially in food and pharmaceutical industries. Fermentation is an advantageous process to produce gluconic acid. Mathematical modeling is important in the design and operation of fermentation process. In fact, kinetic data must be available for modeling. The kinetic parameters of gluconic acid production by Aspergillus niger in batch culture was studied in this research at initial substrate concentration of 150, 200 and 250 g/l. The kinetic models used were logistic equation for growth, Luedeking-Piret equation for gluconic acid formation, and Luedeking-Piret-like equation for glucose consumption. The Kinetic parameters in the model were obtained by minimizing non linear least squares curve fitting.

Keywords: Aspergillus niger, fermentation, gluconic acid, kinetic.

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8447 Application of RS and GIS Technique for Identifying Groundwater Potential Zone in Gomukhi Nadhi Sub Basin, South India

Authors: Punitha Periyasamy, Mahalingam Sudalaimuthu, Sachikanta Nanda, Arasu Sundaram

Abstract:

India holds 17.5% of the world’s population but has only 2% of the total geographical area of the world where 27.35% of the area is categorized as wasteland due to lack of or less groundwater. So there is a demand for excessive groundwater for agricultural and non agricultural activities to balance its growth rate. With this in mind, an attempt is made to find the groundwater potential zone in Gomukhi Nadhi sub basin of Vellar River basin, TamilNadu, India covering an area of 1146.6 Sq.Km consists of 9 blocks from Peddanaickanpalayam to Virudhachalam in the sub basin. The thematic maps such as Geology, Geomorphology, Lineament, Landuse and Landcover and Drainage are prepared for the study area using IRS P6 data. The collateral data includes rainfall, water level, soil map are collected for analysis and inference. The digital elevation model (DEM) is generated using Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) and the slope of the study area is obtained. ArcGIS 10.1 acts as a powerful spatial analysis tool to find out the ground water potential zones in the study area by means of weighted overlay analysis. Each individual parameter of the thematic maps are ranked and weighted in accordance with their influence to increase the water level in the ground. The potential zones in the study area are classified viz., Very Good, Good, Moderate, Poor with its aerial extent of 15.67, 381.06, 575.38, 174.49 Sq.Km respectively.

Keywords: ArcGIS, DEM, Groundwater, Recharge, Weighted Overlay.

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8446 Forming Simulation of Thermoplastic Pre-Impregnated Textile Composite

Authors: Masato Nishi, Tetsushi Kaburagi, Masashi Kurose, Tei Hirashima, Tetsusei Kurasiki

Abstract:

The process of thermoforming a carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP) has increased its presence in the automotive industry for its wide applicability to the mass production car. A non-isothermal forming for CFRTP can shorten its cycle time to less than 1 minute. In this paper, the textile reinforcement FE model which the authors proposed in a previous work is extended to the CFRTP model for non-isothermal forming simulation. The effect of thermoplastic is given by adding shell elements which consider thermal effect to the textile reinforcement model. By applying Reuss model to the stress calculation of thermoplastic, the proposed model can accurately predict in-plane shear behavior, which is the key deformation mode during forming, in the range of the process temperature. Using the proposed model, thermoforming simulation was conducted and the results are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: Carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP), Finite element analysis (FEA), Pre-impregnated textile composite, Non-isothermal forming.

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8445 Input-Output Analysis in Laptop Computer Manufacturing

Authors: H. Z. Ulukan, E. Demircioğlu, M. Erol Genevois

Abstract:

The scope of this paper and the aim of proposed model were to apply monetary Input –Output (I-O) analysis to point out the importance of reusing know-how and other requirements in order to reduce the production costs in a manufacturing process for a laptop computer. I-O approach using the monetary input-output model is employed to demonstrate the impacts of different factors in a manufacturing process. A sensitivity analysis showing the correlation between these different factors is also presented. It is expected that the recommended model would have an advantageous effect in the cost minimization process.

Keywords: Input-Output Analysis, Monetary Input-Output Model, Manufacturing Process, Laptop Computer.

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8444 The Amino-Acid Score and Physical Growth: Implications for the Assessment of Protein Quality

Authors: P. Grasgruber, J. Cacek, S. Hřebíčková

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to test the reliability of various standards that assess the quality of proteins via the “amino-acid score” and serve as a nutritional guideline for both children and adults. The height of young men in 42 European countries, Australia, New Zealand and USA was compared with the average consumption of food (after FAOSTAT, 2009) and a subsequent statistical analysis identified types of food with the most pronounced effect on physical growth. The results show that milk products and pork meat are by far the most significant nutritional factors in this regard. Cereals, vegetables and especially wheat played a strongly negative role. The results generally agreed best with the amino-acid score of proteins according to the standard of FAO 1985. In our opinion, the new standard of FAO 2007 underestimates the importance of tryptophan, which should provoke a debate about new modifications of the FAO guidelines.

Keywords: Protein quality, amino-acid score, physical growth, male height.

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8443 Forecasting of Flash Floods over Wadi Watier –Sinai Peninsula Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany

Abstract:

Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.

Keywords: Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.

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8442 Speeding up Nonlinear Time History Analysis of Base-Isolated Structures Using a Nonlinear Exponential Model

Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

The nonlinear time history analysis of seismically base-isolated structures can require a significant computational effort when the behavior of each seismic isolator is predicted by adopting the widely used differential equation Bouc-Wen model. In this paper, a nonlinear exponential model, able to simulate the response of seismic isolation bearings within a relatively large displacements range, is described and adopted in order to reduce the numerical computations and speed up the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Compared to the Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one does not require the numerical solution of a nonlinear differential equation for each time step of the analysis. The seismic response of a 3d base-isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to harmonic earthquake excitation is simulated by modeling each isolator using the proposed analytical model. The comparison of the numerical results and computational time with those obtained by modeling the lead rubber bearings using the Bouc-Wen model demonstrates the good accuracy of the proposed model and its capability to reduce significantly the computational effort of the analysis.

Keywords: Base isolation, computational efficiency, nonlinear exponential model, nonlinear time history analysis.

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8441 Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya

Authors: Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen, Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi, Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

Abstract:

In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work, social and recreational). The variables of the model have been predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation. The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for intercity travel.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, improved intercity transport, intercity mode-choice behavior, disaggregate analysis.

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8440 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: China's Grand Strategy in Central Asia

Authors: Mara Gubaidullina, Aigerim Yelibayeva

Abstract:

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is one of the successful outcomes of China's foreign policy since the end of the Cold war. The expansion of multilateral ties all over the world by dint of pursuing institutional strategies as SCO, identify China as a more constructive power. SCO became a new model of cooperation that was formed on remains of collapsed Soviet system, and predetermined China's geopolitical role in the region. As the fast developing effective regional mechanism, SCO today has more of external impact on the international system and forms a new type of interaction for promoting China's grand strategy of 'peaceful rise'.

Keywords: Central Asia, China's grand strategy, Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

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8439 Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment with Modified Diffusion Model

Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Prior research has not effectively investigated how the profitability of Chinese branches affect FDIs in China [1, 2], so this study for the first time incorporates realistic earnings information to systematically investigate effects of innovation, imitation, and profit factors of FDI diffusions from Taiwan to China. Our nonlinear least square (NLS) model, which incorporates earnings factors, forms a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) in numerical simulation programs. The model parameters are obtained through a genetic algorithms (GA) technique and then optimized with the collected data for the best accuracy. Particularly, Taiwanese regulatory FDI restrictions are also considered in our modified model to meet the realistic conditions. To validate the model-s effectiveness, this investigation compares the prediction accuracy of modified model with the conventional diffusion model, which does not take account of the profitability factors. The results clearly demonstrate the internal influence to be positive, as early FDI adopters- consistent praises of FDI attract potential firms to make the same move. The former erects a behavior model for the latter to imitate their foreign investment decision. Particularly, the results of modified diffusion models show that the earnings from Chinese branches are positively related to the internal influence. In general, the imitating tendency of potential consumers is substantially hindered by the losses in the Chinese branches, and these firms would invest less into China. The FDI inflow extension depends on earnings of Chinese branches, and companies will adjust their FDI strategies based on the returns. Since this research has proved that earning is an influential factor on FDI dynamics, our revised model explicitly performs superior in prediction ability than conventional diffusion model.

Keywords: diffusion model, genetic algorithms, nonlinear leastsquares (NLS) model, prediction error.

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8438 Using Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filter Track 3D Arm Motion based on Hierarchical Limb Model

Authors: XueSong Yu, JiaFeng Liu, XiangLong Tang, JianHua Huang

Abstract:

For improving the efficiency of human 3D tracking, we present an algorithm to track 3D Arm Motion. First, the Hierarchy Limb Model (HLM) is proposed based on the human 3D skeleton model. Second, via graph decomposition, the arm motion state space, modeled by HLM, can be discomposed into two low dimension subspaces: root nodes and leaf nodes. Finally, Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filter is used to estimate the 3D arm motion. The result of experiment shows that our algorithm can advance the computation efficiency.

Keywords: Hierarchy Limb Model; Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filter; 3D tracking

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