Search results for: Stochastic Distribution.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2115

Search results for: Stochastic Distribution.

1425 Creating Maintenance Cost Model for University Buildings

Authors: AbdulLateef A. Olanrewaju, Arazi Idrus, Mohd F. Khamidi

Abstract:

Maintenance costs incurred on building differs. The difference can be as results of the types, functions, age, building health index, size, form height, location and complexity of the building. These are contributing to the difficulty in maintenance development of deterministic maintenance cost model. This paper is concerns with reporting the preliminary findings on the creation of building maintenance cost distributions for universities in Malaysia. This study is triggered by the need to provide guides on maintenance costs distributions for decision making. For this purpose, a survey questionnaire was conducted to investigate the distribution of maintenance costs in the universities. Altogether, responses were received from twenty universities comprising both private and publicly owned. The research found that engineering services, roofing and finishes were the elements contributing the larger segment of the maintenance costs. Furthermore, the study indicates the significance of maintenance cost distribution as decision making tool towards maintenance management.

Keywords: Performance matrix, university buildings, costmodel, Malaysia

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1424 An Enhanced Situational Awareness of AUV's Mission by Multirate Neural Control

Authors: Igor Astrov, Mikhail Pikkov

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the neural control of depth flight of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). Constant depth flight is a challenging but important task for AUVs to achieve high level of autonomy under adverse conditions. With the SA strategy, we proposed a multirate neural control of an AUV trajectory using neural network model reference controller for a nontrivial mid-small size AUV "r2D4" stochastic model. This control system has been demonstrated and evaluated by simulation of diving maneuvers using software package Simulink. From the simulation results it can be seen that the chosen AUV model is stable in the presence of high noise, and also can be concluded that the fast SA of similar AUV systems with economy in energy of batteries can be asserted during the underwater missions in search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Autonomous underwater vehicles, multirate systems, neurocontrollers, situational awareness.

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1423 Fuzzy Control of Macroeconomic Models

Authors: Andre A. Keller

Abstract:

The optimal control is one of the possible controllers for a dynamic system, having a linear quadratic regulator and using the Pontryagin-s principle or the dynamic programming method . Stochastic disturbances may affect the coefficients (multiplicative disturbances) or the equations (additive disturbances), provided that the shocks are not too great . Nevertheless, this approach encounters difficulties when uncertainties are very important or when the probability calculus is of no help with very imprecise data. The fuzzy logic contributes to a pragmatic solution of such a problem since it operates on fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy controller acts as an artificial decision maker that operates in a closed-loop system in real time. This contribution seeks to explore the tracking problem and control of dynamic macroeconomic models using a fuzzy learning algorithm. A two inputs - single output (TISO) fuzzy model is applied to the linear fluctuation model of Phillips and to the nonlinear growth model of Goodwin.

Keywords: fuzzy control, macroeconomic model, multiplier - accelerator, nonlinear accelerator, stabilization policy.

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1422 Transient Three Dimensional FE Modeling for Thermal Analysis of Pulsed Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding of Aluminum Alloy

Authors: N. Karunakaran, V. Balasubramanian

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of a study aimed at establishing the temperature distribution during the welding of aluminum alloy plates by Pulsed Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (PCGTAW) and Constant Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (CCGTAW) processes. Pulsing of the GTA welding current influences the dimensions and solidification rate of the fused zone, it also reduces the weld pool volume hence a narrower bead. In this investigation, the base material considered was aluminum alloy AA 6351 T6, which is finding use in aircraft, automobile and high-speed train components. A finite element analysis was carried out using ANSYS, and the results of the FEA were compared with the experimental results. It is evident from the study that the finite element analysis using ANSYS can be effectively used to model PCGTAW process for finding temperature distribution.

Keywords: Gas tungsten arc welding, pulsed current, finite element analysis, thermal analysis, aluminum alloy.

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1421 Residence Time Distribution in a Two Impinging Streams Cyclone Reactor: CFD Prediction and Experimental Validation

Authors: Nahid Ghasemi, Morteza Sohrabi, Yasan Soleymani

Abstract:

The quantified residence time distribution (RTD) provides a numerical characterization of mixing in a reactor, thus allowing the process engineer to better understand mixing performance of the reactor.This paper discusses computational studies to investigate flow patterns in a two impinging streams cyclone reactor(TISCR) . Flow in the reactor was modeled with computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Utilizing the Eulerian- Lagrangian approach, implemented in FLUENT (V6.3.22), particle trajectories were obtained by solving the particle force balance equations. From simulation results obtained at different Δts, the mean residence time (tm) and the mean square deviation (σ2) were calculated. a good agreement can be observed between predicted and experimental data. Simulation results indicate that the behavior of complex reactor systems can be predicted using the CFD technique with minimum data requirement for validation.

Keywords: Impinging streams reactor, Residence timedistribution, CFD, Eulerian-Lagrangian approach

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1420 Redesigning Business Processes: A Method Based on Simulation and Process Mining Techniques

Authors: Zahra Mohammadnazari, Fateme Rostambeygi, Fatemeh Dehrouyeh, Hwang Ki-Soon, Amir Aghsami

Abstract:

Corporations have always prioritized efforts to examine and improve processes. Various metrics, such as the cost and time required to implement the process and can be specified in this regard. Process improvement can be defined as an improvement of these indicators. This is accomplished by looking at prospective adjustments to the current executive process model or the resources allotted to it. Research has been conducted in this paper to the improve the procurement process and aims to explore assessment prospects in the project using a combination of process mining and simulation (benefiting from Play-In and Play-Out methodologies). To run the simulation, we will need to complete the control flow diagram, institution settings, resource settings, and activity settings. The process of mining event logs yields the process control flow. However, both the entry of institutions and the distribution of resources must be modeled. The rate of admission of institutions and the distribution of time for the implementation of activities will be determined in the next step.

Keywords: Business reengineering, Petri net, process-based simulation, process mining.

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1419 Thixomixing as Novel Method for Fabrication Aluminum Composite with Carbon and Alumina Fibers

Authors: Ebrahim Akbarzadeh, Josep A. Picas Barrachina, Maite Baile Puig

Abstract:

This study focuses on a novel method for dispersion and distribution of reinforcement under high intensive shear stress to produce metal composites. The polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based short carbon fiber (Csf) and Nextel 610 alumina fiber were dispersed under high intensive shearing at mushy zone in semi-solid of A356 by a novel method. The bundles and clusters were embedded by infiltration of slurry into the clusters, thus leading to a uniform microstructure. The fibers were embedded homogenously into the aluminum around 576-580°C with around 46% of solid fraction. Other experiments at 615°C and 568°C which are contained 0% and 90% solid respectively were not successful for dispersion and infiltration of aluminum into bundles of Csf. The alumina fiber has been cracked by high shearing load. The morphologies and crystalline phase were evaluated by SEM and XRD. The adopted thixo-process effectively improved the adherence and distribution of Csf into Al that can be developed to produce various composites by thixomixing.

Keywords: Aluminum, carbon fiber, alumina fiber, thixomixing, adhesion.

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1418 Assessment of Pollution of the Rustavi City’s Atmosphere with Microaerosols

Authors: N. Gigauri, A. Surmava

Abstract:

According to observational data, experimental measurements and numerical modelling, the pollution of one of the industrial centers of Georgia, Rustavi City’s atmosphere with micro aerosols are assessed. Monthly, daily and hourly changes of the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in the city atmosphere are analyzed. It is accepted that PM2.5 concentrations are always lower than PM10 concentrations, but their change curve is the same. In addition, it has been noted that the maximum concentrations of particles in the atmosphere of Rustavi city will be reached at any part of the day, which is determined by the total impact of the traffic flow and industrial facilities. Through numerical modelling, the influence of background western light air, gentle and fresh breeze on the distribution of particulate matter in the atmosphere was calculated. Calculations showed that background light air and gentle breeze lead to an increase the concentrations of microaerosols in the city's atmosphere, while fresh breeze contributes to the dispersion of dusty clouds. As a result, the level of dust in the city is decreasing, but the distribution area is expanding.

Keywords: Air pollution, numerical modeling, experimental measurement, PM2.5, PM10.

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1417 Unsteady 3D Post-Stall Aerodynamics Accounting for Effective Loss in Camber Due to Flow Separation

Authors: Aritras Roy, Rinku Mukherjee

Abstract:

The current study couples a quasi-steady Vortex Lattice Method and a camber correcting technique, ‘Decambering’ for unsteady post-stall flow prediction. The wake is force-free and discrete such that the wake lattices move with the free-stream once shed from the wing. It is observed that the time-averaged unsteady coefficient of lift sees a relative drop at post-stall angles of attack in comparison to its steady counterpart for some angles of attack. Multiple solutions occur at post-stall and three different algorithms to choose solutions in these regimes show both unsteadiness and non-convergence of the iterations. The distribution of coefficient of lift on the wing span also shows sawtooth. Distribution of vorticity changes both along span and in the direction of the free-stream as the wake develops over time with distinct roll-up, which increases with time.

Keywords: Post-stall, unsteady, wing, aerodynamics.

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1416 Multiple Sequence Alignment Using Optimization Algorithms

Authors: M. F. Omar, R. A. Salam, R. Abdullah, N. A. Rashid

Abstract:

Proteins or genes that have similar sequences are likely to perform the same function. One of the most widely used techniques for sequence comparison is sequence alignment. Sequence alignment allows mismatches and insertion/deletion, which represents biological mutations. Sequence alignment is usually performed only on two sequences. Multiple sequence alignment, is a natural extension of two-sequence alignment. In multiple sequence alignment, the emphasis is to find optimal alignment for a group of sequences. Several applicable techniques were observed in this research, from traditional method such as dynamic programming to the extend of widely used stochastic optimization method such as Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and Simulated Annealing. A framework with combination of Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing is presented to solve Multiple Sequence Alignment problem. The Genetic Algorithm phase will try to find new region of solution while Simulated Annealing can be considered as an alignment improver for any near optimal solution produced by GAs.

Keywords: Simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, sequence alignment, multiple sequence alignment.

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1415 Reliability Approximation through the Discretization of Random Variables using Reversed Hazard Rate Function

Authors: Tirthankar Ghosh, Dilip Roy, Nimai Kumar Chandra

Abstract:

Sometime it is difficult to determine the exact reliability for complex systems in analytical procedures. Approximate solution of this problem can be provided through discretization of random variables. In this paper we describe the usefulness of discretization of a random variable using the reversed hazard rate function of its continuous version. Discretization of the exponential distribution has been demonstrated. Applications of this approach have also been cited. Numerical calculations indicate that the proposed approach gives very good approximation of reliability of complex systems under stress-strength set-up. The performance of the proposed approach is better than the existing discrete concentration method of discretization. This approach is conceptually simple, handles analytic intractability and reduces computational time. The approach can be applied in manufacturing industries for producing high-reliable items.

Keywords: Discretization, Reversed Hazard Rate, Exponential distribution, reliability approximation, engineering item.

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1414 Effects of Discharge Fan on the Drying Efficiency in Flat-bed type Dryer

Authors: Jafar Hashemi, Reza Tabatabaekoloor, Toshinori Kimura

Abstract:

The study of interaction among the grain, moisture, and the surrounding space (air) is key to understanding the graindrying process. In Iran, rice (mostly Indica type) is dried by flat bed type dryer until the final MC reaches to 6 to 8%. The experiments were conducted to examine the effect of application of discharge fan with different heights of paddy on the drying efficiency. Experiments were designed based on two different configurations of the drying methods; with and without discharge fan with three different heights of paddy including; 5, 10, and 15 cm. The humid heated air will be going out immediately by the suction of discharge fan. The drying time is established upon the average final MC to achieve about 8%. To save energy and reduce the drying time, the distribution of temperature between layers should be fast and uniform with minimum difference; otherwise the difference of MC gradient between layers will be high and will induce grain breakage. The difference of final MC between layers in the two methods was 48-73%. The steady state of temperature between the two methods has saved time in the range of 10-20%, and the efficiency of temperature distribution increased 17-26% by the use of discharge fan.

Keywords: FBT Dryer, Final MC, Discharge Fan.

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1413 A Fully-Automated Disturbance Analysis Vision for the Smart Grid Based on Smart Switch Data

Authors: Bernardo Cedano, Ahmed H. Eltom, Bob Hay, Jim Glass, Raga Ahmed

Abstract:

The deployment of smart grid devices such as smart meters and smart switches (SS) supported by a reliable and fast communications system makes automated distribution possible, and thus, provides great benefits to electric power consumers and providers alike. However, more research is needed before the full utility of smart switch data is realized. This paper presents new automated switching techniques using SS within the electric power grid. A concise background of the SS is provided, and operational examples are shown. Organization and presentation of data obtained from SS are shown in the context of the future goal of total automation of the distribution network. The description of application techniques, the examples of success with SS, and the vision outlined in this paper serve to motivate future research pertinent to disturbance analysis automation.

Keywords: Disturbance automation, electric power grid, smart grid, smart switch.

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1412 Form of Distribution of Traffic Accident and Environment Factors of Road Affecting of Traffic Accident in Dusit District, Only Area Responsible of Samsen Police Station

Authors: Musthaya Patchanee

Abstract:

This research aimed to study form of traffic distribution and environmental factors of road that affect traffic accidents in Dusit District, only areas responsible of Samsen Police Station. Data used in this analysis is the secondary data of traffic accident case from year 2011. Observed area units are 15 traffic lines that are under responsible of Samsen Police Station. Technique and method used are the Cartographic Method, the Correlation Analysis, and the Multiple Regression Analysis. The results of form of traffic accidents show that, the Samsen Road area had most traffic accidents (24.29%), second was Rachvithi Road(18.10%), third was Sukhothai Road (15.71%), fourth was Rachasrima Road (12.38%), and fifth was Amnuaysongkram Road(7.62%). The result from Dusit District, onlyareasresponsibleofSamsen police station, has suggested that the scale of accidents have high positive correlation with statistic significant at level 0.05 and the frequency of travel (r=0.857). Traffic intersection point (r=0.763)and traffic control equipments (r=0.713) are relevant factors respectively. By using the Multiple Regression Analysis, travel frequency is the only one that has considerable influences on traffic accidents in Dusit district only Samsen Police Station area. Also, a factor in frequency of travel can explain the change in traffic accidents scale to 73.40 (R2 = 0.734). By using the Multiple regression summation from analysis was Ŷ=-7.977+0.044X6

Keywords: Form of Traffic Distribution, Environmental Factors of road, Traffic Accidents, Dusit District.

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1411 Influence of Maximum Fatigue Load on Probabilistic Aspect of Fatigue Crack Propagation Life at Specified Grown Crack in Magnesium Alloys

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The principal purpose of this paper is to find the influence of maximum fatigue load on the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack in magnesium alloys. The experiments of fatigue crack propagation are carried out in laboratory air under different conditions of the maximum fatigue loads to obtain the fatigue crack propagation data for the statistical analysis. In order to analyze the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life, the goodness-of fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack is implemented through Anderson-Darling test. The good probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is also verified under the conditions of the maximum fatigue loads.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation life, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load, probability.

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1410 An Exact MCNP Modeling of Pebble Bed Reactors

Authors: Amin Abedi, Naser Vosoughi, Mohammad Bagher Ghofrani

Abstract:

Double heterogeneity of randomly located pebbles in the core and Coated Fuel Particles (CFPs) in the pebbles are specific features in pebble bed reactors and usually, because of difficulty to model with MCNP code capabilities, are neglected. In this study, characteristics of HTR-10, Tsinghua University research reactor, are used and not only double heterogeneous but also truncated CFPs and Pebbles are considered.Firstly, 8335 CFPs are distributed randomly in a pebble and then the core of reactor is filled with those pebbles and graphite pebbles as moderator such that 57:43 ratio of fuel and moderator pebbles is established.Finally, four different core configurations are modeled. They are Simple Cubic (SC) structure with truncated pebbles,SC structure without truncated pebble, and Simple Hexagonal(SH) structure without truncated pebbles and SH structure with truncated pebbles. Results like effective multiplication factor (Keff), critical height,etc. are compared with available data.

Keywords: Double Heterogeneity, HTR-10, MCNP, Pebble Bed Reactor, Stochastic Geometry.

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1409 Fashion Consumption for Fashion Innovators: A Study of Fashion Consumption Behavior of Innovators and Non-Innovators

Authors: Vaishali P. Joshi, Pallav Joshi

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to examine the differences fashion innovators and non-fashion innovators in their fashion consumption behavior in terms of their pre-purchase behavior, purchase behavior and post purchase behavior. The questionnaire was distributed to a female college student for data collection for achieving the objective of the first part of the study. Question-related to fashion innovativeness and fashion consumption behavior was asked. The sample was comprised of 81 college females ages 18 through 30 who were attending Business Management degree. A series of attitude questions was used to categorize respondents on the Innovativeness Scale. 32 respondents with a score of 21 and above were designated as Fashion innovators and the remainder (49) as Non-fashion innovators. Findings showed that there exist significant differences between innovators and non-innovators in their fashion consumption behavior. Data was analyzed through frequency distribution table. Many differences were found in the behavior of innovators and non-innovators in terms of their pre-purchase, actual purchase, and post-purchase behavior.

Keywords: Consumption behavior, fashion, innovativeness, frequency distribution table.

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1408 The Autoregresive Analysis for Wind Turbine Signal Postprocessing

Authors: Daniel Pereiro, Felix Martinez, Iker Urresti, Ana Gomez Gonzalez

Abstract:

Today modern simulations solutions in the wind turbine industry have achieved a high degree of complexity and detail in result. Limitations exist when it is time to validate model results against measurements. Regarding Model validation it is of special interest to identify mode frequencies and to differentiate them from the different excitations. A wind turbine is a complex device and measurements regarding any part of the assembly show a lot of noise. Input excitations are difficult or even impossible to measure due to the stochastic nature of the environment. Traditional techniques for frequency analysis or features extraction are widely used to analyze wind turbine sensor signals, but have several limitations specially attending to non stationary signals (Events). A new technique based on autoregresive analysis techniques is introduced here for a specific application, a comparison and examples related to different events in the wind turbine operations are presented.

Keywords: Wind turbine, signal processing, mode extraction.

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1407 Analysis on Spatiotemporal Pattern of Land Surface Temperature in Kunming City, China

Authors: Jinrui Ren, Li Wu

Abstract:

Anthropogenic activities and changes of underlying surface affect the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature in Kunming. Taking Kunming city as the research area, the surface temperature in 2000, 2010 and 2020 as the research object, using ENVI 5.3 and ArcGIS 10.8 as auxiliary tools, and based on the spatial autocorrelation method, this paper devoted to exploring the interactions among the changes of surface temperature, urban heat island effect and land use type, so as to provide theoretical basis and scientific basis for mitigating climate change. The results showed that: (1) The heat island effect was obvious in Kunming City, the high temperature area increased from 604 km2 in 2000 to 1269 km2 in 2020, and the sub-high temperature area reached 1099 km2 in 2020; (2) In terms of space, the spatial distribution of LST was significantly different with the change of underlying surface. The high temperature zone extended in three directions: south, north and east. The overall spatial distribution pattern of LST was high in the east and low in the west. (3) The inter-annual fluctuation of land surface temperature (LST) was large, and the growth rate was faster, from 2000 to 2010. The lowest temperature in 2000 was 13.45 ℃, which raised to 19.71 ℃ in 2010, and the temperature difference in 10 years was 6.26 ℃. (4) The land use/land cover type has a strong effect on the change of LST: the man-made land made a great contribution to the increase of LST, followed by grassland and farmland, while forest and water have a significant cooling effect on LST. To sum up, the variation of surface temperature in Kunming is the result of the interactions of human activities and climate change.

Keywords: Surface temperature, urban heat island effect, land use cover type, spatiotemporal variation.

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1406 Analysis of Cyclic Elastic-Plastic Loading of Shaft Based On Kinematic Hardening Model

Authors: Isa Ahmadi, Ramin Khamedi

Abstract:

In this paper, the elasto-plastic and cyclic torsion of a shaft is studied using a finite element method. The Prager kinematic hardening theory of plasticity with the Ramberg and Osgood stress-strain equation is used to evaluate the cyclic loading behavior of the shaft under the torsional loading. The material of shaft is assumed to follow the non-linear strain hardening property based on the Prager model. The finite element method with C1 continuity is developed and used for solution of the governing equations of the problem. The successive substitution iterative method is used to calculate the distribution of stresses and plastic strains in the shaft due to cyclic loads. The shear stress, effective stress, residual stress and elastic and plastic shear strain distribution are presented in the numerical results.

Keywords: Cyclic Loading, Finite Element Analysis, Prager Kinematic Hardening Model, Torsion of shaft.

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1405 Weigh-in-Motion Data Analysis Software for Developing Traffic Data for Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design

Authors: M. A. Hasan, M. R. Islam, R. A. Tarefder

Abstract:

Currently, there are few user friendly Weigh-in- Motion (WIM) data analysis softwares available which can produce traffic input data for the recently developed AASHTOWare pavement Mechanistic-Empirical (ME) design software. However, these softwares have only rudimentary Quality Control (QC) processes. Therefore, they cannot properly deal with erroneous WIM data. As the pavement performance is highly sensible to the quality of WIM data, it is highly recommended to use more refined QC process on raw WIM data to get a good result. This study develops a userfriendly software, which can produce traffic input for the ME design software. This software takes the raw data (Class and Weight data) collected from the WIM station and processes it with a sophisticated QC procedure. Traffic data such as traffic volume, traffic distribution, axle load spectra, etc. can be obtained from this software; which can directly be used in the ME design software.

Keywords: Weigh-in-motion, software, axle load spectra, traffic distribution, AASHTOWare.

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1404 Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Surface Water Treatment Pilot Plant

Authors: C.-M. Militaru, A. Pǎcalǎ, I. Vlaicu, K. Bodor, G.-A. Dumitrel, T. Todinca

Abstract:

A mathematical model for the hydrodynamics of a surface water treatment pilot plant was developed and validated by the determination of the residence time distribution (RTD) for the main equipments of the unit. The well known models of ideal/real mixing, ideal displacement (plug flow) and (one-dimensional axial) dispersion model were combined in order to identify the structure that gives the best fitting of the experimental data for each equipment of the pilot plant. RTD experimental results have shown that pilot plant hydrodynamics can be quite well approximated by a combination of simple mathematical models, structure which is suitable for engineering applications. Validated hydrodynamic models will be further used in the evaluation and selection of the most suitable coagulation-flocculation reagents, optimum operating conditions (injection point, reaction times, etc.), in order to improve the quality of the drinking water.

Keywords: drinking water, hydrodynamic modeling, pilot plant, residence time distribution, surface water.

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1403 Dynamic Fast Tracing and Smoothing Technique for Geiger-Muller Dosimeter

Authors: M. Ebrahimi Shohani, S. M. Taheri, S. M. Golgoun

Abstract:

Environmental radiation dosimeter is a kind of detector that measures the dose of the radiation area. Dosimeter registers the radiation and converts it to the dose according to the calibration parameters. The limit of a dose is different at each radiation area and this limit should be notified and reported to the user and health physics department. The stochastic nature of radiation is the reason for the fluctuation of any gamma detector dosimetry. In this research we investigated Geiger-Muller type of dosimeter and tried to improve the dose measurement. Geiger-Muller dosimeter is a counter that converts registered radiation to the dose. Therefore, for better data analysis, it is necessary to apply an algorithm to smooth statistical variations of registered radiation. We proposed a method to smooth these fluctuations much more and also proposed a dynamic way to trace rapid changes of radiations. Results show that our method is fast and reliable method in comparison the traditional method.

Keywords: Geiger-Muller, radiation detection, smoothing algorithms, dosimeter, dose calculation.

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1402 Segmentation of Piecewise Polynomial Regression Model by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

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1401 Human Growth Curve Estimation through a Combination of Longitudinal and Cross-sectional Data

Authors: Sedigheh Mirzaei S., Debasis Sengupta

Abstract:

Parametric models have been quite popular for studying human growth, particularly in relation to biological parameters such as peak size velocity and age at peak size velocity. Longitudinal data are generally considered to be vital for fittinga parametric model to individual-specific data, and for studying the distribution of these biological parameters in a human population. However, cross-sectional data are easier to obtain than longitudinal data. In this paper, we present a method of combining longitudinal and cross-sectional data for the purpose of estimating the distribution of the biological parameters. We demonstrate, through simulations in the special case ofthePreece Baines model, how estimates based on longitudinal data can be improved upon by harnessing the information contained in cross-sectional data.We study the extent of improvement for different mixes of the two types of data, and finally illustrate the use of the method through data collected by the Indian Statistical Institute.

Keywords: Preece-Baines growth model, MCMC method, Mixed effect model

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1400 Non-Revenue Water Management in Palestine

Authors: Samah Jawad Jabari

Abstract:

Water is the most important and valuable resource not only for human life but also for all living things on the planet. The water supply utilities should fulfill the water requirement quantitatively and qualitatively. Drinking water systems are exposed to both natural (hurricanes and flood) and manmade hazards (risks) that are common in Palestine. Non-Revenue Water (NRW) is a manmade risk which remains a major concern in Palestine, as the NRW levels are estimated to be at a high level. In this research, Hebron city water distribution network was taken as a case study to estimate and audit the NRW levels. The research also investigated the state of the existing water distribution system in the study area by investigating the water losses and obtained more information on NRW prevention and management practices. Data and information have been collected from the Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) and Hebron Municipality (HM) archive. In addition to that, a questionnaire has been designed and administered by the researcher in order to collect the necessary data for water auditing. The questionnaire also assessed the views of stakeholder in PWA and HM (staff) on the current status of the NRW in the Hebron water distribution system. The important result obtained by this research shows that NRW in Hebron city was high and in excess of 30%. The main factors that contribute to NRW were the inaccuracies in billing volumes, unauthorized consumption, and the method of estimating consumptions through faulty meters. Policy for NRW reduction is available in Palestine; however, it is clear that the number of qualified staff available to carry out the activities related to leak detection is low, and that there is a lack of appropriate technologies to reduce water losses and undertake sufficient system maintenance, which needs to be improved to enhance the performance of the network and decrease the level of NRW losses.

Keywords: Non-revenue water, water auditing, leak detection, water meters.

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1399 Implementation of Feed-in Tariffs into Multi-Energy Systems

Authors: M. Schulze, P. Crespo Del Granado

Abstract:

This paper considers the influence of promotion instruments for renewable energy sources (RES) on a multi-energy modeling framework. In Europe, so called Feed-in Tariffs are successfully used as incentive structures to increase the amount of energy produced by RES. Because of the stochastic nature of large scale integration of distributed generation, many problems have occurred regarding the quality and stability of supply. Hence, a macroscopic model was developed in order to optimize the power supply of the local energy infrastructure, which includes electricity, natural gas, fuel oil and district heating as energy carriers. Unique features of the model are the integration of RES and the adoption of Feed-in Tariffs into one optimization stage. Sensitivity studies are carried out to examine the system behavior under changing profits for the feed-in of RES. With a setup of three energy exchanging regions and a multi-period optimization, the impact of costs and profits are determined.

Keywords: Distributed generation, optimization methods, power system modeling, renewable energy.

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1398 A New Damage Identification Strategy for SHM Based On FBGs and Bayesian Model Updating Method

Authors: Yanhui Zhang, Wenyu Yang

Abstract:

One of the difficulties of the vibration-based damage identification methods is the nonuniqueness of the results of damage identification. The different damage locations and severity may cause the identical response signal, which is even more severe for detection of the multiple damage. This paper proposes a new strategy for damage detection to avoid this nonuniqueness. This strategy firstly determines the approximates damage area based on the statistical pattern recognition method using the dynamic strain signal measured by the distributed fiber Bragg grating, and then accurately evaluates the damage information based on the Bayesian model updating method using the experimental modal data. The stochastic simulation method is then used to compute the high-dimensional integral in the Bayesian problem. Finally, an experiment of the plate structure, simulating one part of mechanical structure, is used to verify the effectiveness of this approach.

Keywords: Bayesian method, damage detection, fiber Bragg grating, structural health monitoring.

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1397 Gold Nanoparticle: Synthesis, Characterization, Clinico-Pathological, Pathological, and Bio-Distribution Studies in Rabbits

Authors: M. M. Bashandy, A. R. Ahmed, M. El-Gaffary, Sahar S. Abd El-Rahman

Abstract:

This study evaluated the acute toxicity and tissue distribution of intravenously administered gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) in male rabbits. Rabbits were exposed to single dose of AuNPs (300 μg/ kg). Toxic effects were assessed via general behavior, hematological parameters, serum biochemical parameters, and histopathological examination of various rabbits’ organs. Inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was used to determine gold concentrations in tissue samples collected at predetermined time intervals. After one week, AuNPs exerted no obvious acute toxicity in rabbits. However, inflammatory reactions were observed in liver, lungs and kidneys accompanied with mild absolute neutrophilia and significant monocytosis. The highest gold levels were found in the spleen and liver followed by lungs, and kidneys. These results indicated that AuNPs could be distributed extensively to various tissues in the body, but primarily in the spleen and liver.

Keywords: Gold nanoparticles, toxicity, pathology, hematology, liver function, kidney function.

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1396 Multipurpose Three Dimensional Finite Element Procedure for Thermal Analysis in Pulsed Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding of AZ 31B Magnesium Alloy Sheets

Authors: N.Karunakaran, V.Balasubramanian

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of a study aimed at establishing the temperature distribution during the welding of magnesium alloy sheets by Pulsed Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (PCGTAW) and Constant Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (CCGTAW) processes. Pulsing of the GTAW welding current influences the dimensions and solidification rate of the fused zone, it also reduces the weld pool volume hence a narrower bead. In this investigation, the base material considered was 2mm thin AZ 31 B magnesium alloy, which is finding use in aircraft, automobile and high-speed train components. A finite element analysis was carried out using ANSYS, and the results of the FEA were compared with the experimental results. It is evident from this study that the finite element analysis using ANSYS can be effectively used to model PCGTAW process for finding temperature distribution.

Keywords: gas tungsten arc welding, pulsed current, finiteelement analysis, thermal analysis, magnesium alloy.

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