Search results for: similarity function.

Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

Abstract:

The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFD_avg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

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Authors: Mahdi Shaneh, Azizollah Taheri

Abstract:

The goal of this project is to design a system to recognition voice commands. Most of voice recognition systems contain two main modules as follow “feature extraction" and “feature matching". In this project, MFCC algorithm is used to simulate feature extraction module. Using this algorithm, the cepstral coefficients are calculated on mel frequency scale. VQ (vector quantization) method will be used for reduction of amount of data to decrease computation time. In the feature matching stage Euclidean distance is applied as similarity criterion. Because of high accuracy of used algorithms, the accuracy of this voice command system is high. Using these algorithms, by at least 5 times repetition for each command, in a single training session, and then twice in each testing session zero error rate in recognition of commands is achieved.

Keywords: MFCC, Vector quantization, Vocal tract, Voicecommand.

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Authors: Lihui Ma, Kunlun Xin, Suiqing Liu

Abstract:

Modern managements of water distribution system (WDS) need water quality models that are able to accurately predict the dynamics of water quality variations within the distribution system environment. Before water quality models can be applied to solve system problems, they should be calibrated. Although former researchers use GA solver to calibrate relative parameters, it is difficult to apply on the large-scale or medium-scale real system for long computational time. In this paper a new method is designed which combines both macro and detailed model to optimize the water quality parameters. This new combinational algorithm uses radial basis function (RBF) metamodeling as a surrogate to be optimized for the purpose of decreasing the times of time-consuming water quality simulation and can realize rapidly the calibration of pipe wall reaction coefficients of chlorine model of large-scaled WDS. After two cases study this method is testified to be more efficient and promising, and deserve to generalize in the future.

Keywords: Metamodeling, model calibration, radial basisfunction, water distribution system, water quality model.

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Authors: Zanariah Mohd Yusof, Siti Khuzaimah Soid, Ahmad Sukri Abd Aziz, Seripah Awang Kechil

Abstract:

Unsteady magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) boundary layer flow and heat transfer over a continuously stretching surface in the presence of radiation is examined. By similarity transformation, the governing partial differential equations are transformed to a set of ordinary differential equations. Numerical solutions are obtained by employing the Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method scheme with shooting technique in Maple software environment. The effects of unsteadiness parameter, radiation parameter, magnetic parameter and Prandtl number on the heat transfer characteristics are obtained and discussed. It is found that the heat transfer rate at the surface increases as the Prandtl number and unsteadiness parameter increase but decreases with magnetic and radiation parameter.

Keywords: Heat transfer, magnetohydrodynamics, radiation, unsteadiness.

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Authors: Bhaskar Thakker, Anoop Lal Vyas

Abstract:

Wrist pulse analysis for identification of health status is found in Ancient Indian as well as Chinese literature. The preprocessing of wrist pulse is necessary to remove outlier pulses and fluctuations prior to the analysis of pulse pressure signal. This paper discusses the identification of irregular pulses present in the pulse series and intricacies associated with the extraction of time domain pulse features. An approach of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) has been utilized for the identification of outlier pulses in the wrist pulse series. The ambiguity present in the identification of pulse features is resolved with the help of first derivative of Ensemble Average of wrist pulse series. An algorithm for detecting tidal and dicrotic notch in individual wrist pulse segment is proposed.

Keywords: Wrist Pulse Segment, Ensemble Average, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), Pulse Similarity Vector.

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Authors: S. K. Pillai, M. K. Jeyakumar

Abstract:

Estimation of model parameters is necessary to predict the behavior of a system. Model parameters are estimated using optimization criteria. Most algorithms use historical data to estimate model parameters. The known target values (actual) and the output produced by the model are compared. The differences between the two form the basis to estimate the parameters. In order to compare different models developed using the same data different criteria are used. The data obtained for short scale projects are used here. We consider software effort estimation problem using radial basis function network. The accuracy comparison is made using various existing criteria for one and two predictors. Then, we propose a new criterion based on linear least squares for evaluation and compared the results of one and two predictors. We have considered another data set and evaluated prediction accuracy using the new criterion. The new criterion is easy to comprehend compared to single statistic. Although software effort estimation is considered, this method is applicable for any modeling and prediction.

Keywords: Software effort estimation, accuracy, Radial Basis Function, linear least squares.

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Authors: Constantin Pehoiu

Abstract:

School physical education, through its objectives and contents, efficiently valorizes the pupils- abilities, developing them, especially the coordinative skill component, which is the basis of movement learning, of the development of the daily motility and also of the special, refined motility required by the practice of certain sports. Medium school age offers the nervous and motor substratum needed for the acquisition of complex motor habits, a substratum that is essential for the coordinative skill. Individuals differ as to the level at which this function is performed, the extent to which this function turns an individual into a person that is adapted and adaptable to complex and various situations. Spatio-temporal orientation, together with movement combination and coupling, and with kinesthetic, balance, motor reaction, movement transformation and rhythm differentiation form the coordinative skills. From our viewpoint, these are characteristic features with high levels of manifestation in a complex psychomotor act - valorizing the quality of one-s talent - as well as indices pertaining to one-s psychomotor intelligence and creativity.

Keywords: development, lesson, spatio-temporal orientation, physical education.

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Authors: Rafik Medjoudj, Rabah Medjoudj, D. Aissani

Abstract:

The electrical substation components are often subject to degradation due to over-voltage or over-current, caused by a short circuit or a lightning. A particular interest is given to the circuit breaker, regarding the importance of its function and its dangerous failure. This component degrades gradually due to the use, and it is also subject to the shock process resulted from the stress of isolating the fault when a short circuit occurs in the system. In this paper, based on failure mechanisms developments, the wear out of the circuit breaker contacts is modeled. The aim of this work is to evaluate its reliability and consequently its residual lifetime. The shock process is based on two random variables such as: the arrival of shocks and their magnitudes. The arrival of shocks was modeled using homogeneous Poisson process (HPP). By simulation, the dates of short-circuit arrivals were generated accompanied with their magnitudes. The same principle of simulation is applied to the amount of cumulative wear out contacts. The objective reached is to find the formulation of the wear function depending on the number of solicitations of the circuit breaker.

Keywords: reliability, short-circuit, models of shocks.

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Authors: Watcharakorn Thongchuay, Puntip Toghaw, Montri Maleewong

Abstract:

The Wavelet-Galerkin finite element method for solving the one-dimensional heat equation is presented in this work. Two types of basis functions which are the Lagrange and multi-level wavelet bases are employed to derive the full form of matrix system. We consider both linear and quadratic bases in the Galerkin method. Time derivative is approximated by polynomial time basis that provides easily extend the order of approximation in time space. Our numerical results show that the rate of convergences for the linear Lagrange and the linear wavelet bases are the same and in order 2 while the rate of convergences for the quadratic Lagrange and the quadratic wavelet bases are approximately in order 4. It also reveals that the wavelet basis provides an easy treatment to improve numerical resolutions that can be done by increasing just its desired levels in the multilevel construction process.

Keywords: Galerkin finite element method, Heat equation , Lagrange basis function, Wavelet basis function.

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Authors: Rakesh Prajapati, Purvik Patel, Hardik Patel

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Productivity and quality are two important aspects that have become great concerns in today’s competitive global market. Every production/manufacturing unit mainly focuses on these areas in relation to the process, as well as the product developed. The electrical discharge machining (EDM) process, even now it is an experience process, wherein the selected parameters are still often far from the maximum, and at the same time selecting optimization parameters is costly and time consuming. Material Removal Rate (MRR) during the process has been considered as a productivity estimate with the aim to maximize it, with an intention of minimizing surface roughness taken as most important output parameter. These two opposites in nature requirements have been simultaneously satisfied by selecting an optimal process environment (optimal parameter setting). Objective function is obtained by Regression Analysis and Analysis of Variance. Then objective function is optimized using Genetic Algorithm technique. The model is shown to be effective; MRR and Surface Roughness improved using optimized machining parameters.

Keywords: Material removal rate, TWR, OC, DOE, ANOVA, MINITAB.

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Authors: M. Habchi, S.M. Mesli, M. Kotbi

Abstract:

The Reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) simulation is applied in the study of an aqueous electrolyte LiCl6H2O. On the basis of the available experimental neutron scattering data, RMC computes pair radial distribution functions in order to explore the structural features of the system. The obtained results include some unrealistic features. To overcome this problem, we use the Hybrid Reverse Monte Carlo (HRMC), incorporating an energy constraint in addition to the commonly used constraints derived from experimental data. Our results show a good agreement between experimental and computed partial distribution functions (PDFs) as well as a significant improvement in pair partial distribution curves. This kind of study can be considered as a useful test for a defined interaction model for conventional simulation techniques.

Keywords: RMC simulation, HRMC simulation, energy constraint, screened potential, glassy state, liquid state, partial distribution function, pair partial distribution function.

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Authors: M.G.A. Nassef, Linghan Li, C. Schenck, B. Kuhfuss

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Design and modeling of nonlinear systems require the knowledge of all inside acting parameters and effects. An empirical alternative is to identify the system-s transfer function from input and output data as a black box model. This paper presents a procedure using least squares algorithm for the identification of a feed drive system coefficients in time domain using a reduced model based on windowed input and output data. The command and response of the axis are first measured in the first 4 ms, and then least squares are applied to predict the transfer function coefficients for this displacement segment. From the identified coefficients, the next command response segments are estimated. The obtained results reveal a considerable potential of least squares method to identify the system-s time-based coefficients and predict accurately the command response as compared to measurements.

Keywords: feed drive systems, least squares algorithm, onlineparameter identification, short time window

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Authors: Wan Chian Li, Justie Su-Tzu Juan, Yi-Chun Wang, Shu-Chuan Chen

Abstract:

The evolutionary tree is an important topic in bioinformation. In 2006, Chen and Lindsay proposed a new method to build the mixture tree from DNA sequences. Mixture tree is a new type evolutionary tree, and it has two additional information besides the information of ordinary evolutionary tree. One of the information is time parameter, and the other is the set of mutated sites. In 2008, Lin and Juan proposed an algorithm to compute the distance between two mixture trees. Their algorithm computes the distance with only considering the time parameter between two mixture trees. In this paper, we proposes a method to measure the similarity of two mixture trees with considering the set of mutated sites and develops two algorithm to compute the distance between two mixture trees. The time complexity of these two proposed algorithms are O(n2 × max{h(T1), h(T2)}) and O(n2), respectively

Keywords: evolutionary tree, mixture tree, mutated site, distance.

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Authors: Hu Haibo, Zhao Hong

Abstract:

Gaussian mixture background model is widely used in moving target detection of the image sequences. However, traditional Gaussian mixture background model usually considers the time continuity of the pixels, and establishes background through statistical distribution of pixels without taking into account the pixels- spatial similarity, which will cause noise, imperfection and other problems. This paper proposes a new Gaussian mixture modeling approach, which combines the color and gradient of the spatial information, and integrates the spatial information of the pixel sequences to establish Gaussian mixture background. The experimental results show that the movement background can be extracted accurately and efficiently, and the algorithm is more robust, and can work in real time in tracking applications.

Keywords: Gaussian mixture model, real-time tracking, sequence image, gradient.

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Authors: S. S. P. M. Isa, N. M. Arifin, R. Nazar, N. Bachok, F. M. Ali, I. Pop

Abstract:

A theoretical study has been presented to describe the boundary layer flow and heat transfer on an exponentially shrinking sheet with a variable wall temperature and suction, in the presence of magnetic field. The governing nonlinear partial differential equations are converted into ordinary differential equations by similarity transformation, which are then solved numerically using the shooting method. Results for the skin friction coefficient, local Nusselt number, velocity profiles as well as temperature profiles are presented through graphs and tables for several sets of values of the parameters. The effects of the governing parameters on the flow and heat transfer characteristics are thoroughly examined.

Keywords: Exponentially shrinking sheet, magnetic field, mixed convection, suction.

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Authors: Kai-Long Hsiao

Abstract:

In this study, an analysis has been performed for free convection with radiation effect over a thermal forming nonlinearly stretching sheet. Parameters n, k0, Pr, G represent the dominance of the nonlinearly effect, radiation effect, heat transfer and free convection effects which have been presented in governing equations, respectively. The similarity transformation and the finite-difference methods have been used to analyze the present problem. From the results, we find that the effects of parameters n, k0, Pr, Ec and G to the nonlinearly stretching sheet. The increase of Prandtl number Pr, free convection parameter G or radiation parameter k0 resulting in the increase of heat transfer effects, but increase of the viscous dissipation number Ec will decrease of heat transfer effect.

Keywords: Nonlinearly stretching sheet, Free convection, Finite-difference, Radiation effect.

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Authors: Chih-Cheng Chen, Meng-Lung Lin, Yung-Tan Lee, Tien-Tze Chen

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The rotation of starting pitchers is a strategic issue which has a significant impact on the performance of a professional team. Choosing an optimal starting pitcher from among many alternatives is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In this study, a model using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is proposed with which to arrange the starting pitcher rotation for teams of the Chinese Professional Baseball League. The AHP is used to analyze the structure of the starting pitcher selection problem and to determine the weights of the criteria, while the TOPSIS method is used to make the final ranking. An empirical analysis is conducted to illustrate the utilization of the model for the starting pitcher rotation problem. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

Keywords: AHP, TOPSIS, starting pitcher rotation, CPBL

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiple criteria evaluation analysis for airline quality rating using the preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) approaches. The airline quality rating was developed as an objective method for assessing airline quality on combined multiple performance criteria and the importance weights of criteria. The selected multiple performance criteria were determined as on-time arrivals, mishandled baggage, involuntary denied boardings, and consumer complaints. The multiple criteria decision making analysis results show that the alternative ( a2) airline is the best-rated airline.

Keywords: airline quality rating, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS, TOPSIS

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Authors: Baharak Khoshkholgh-Sima, Soroush Sardari, Jalal Izadi Mobarakeh, Ramezan Ali Khavari-Nejad

Abstract:

There is an urgent need to develop novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) drugs that are active against drug resistant bacteria but, more importantly, kill persistent bacteria. Our study structured based on integrated analysis of metabolic pathways, small molecule screening and similarity Search in PubChem Database. Metabolic analysis approaches based on Unified weighted used for potent target selection. Our results suggest that pantothenate synthetase (panC) and and 3-methyl-2-oxobutanoate hydroxymethyl transferase (panB) as a appropriate drug targets. In our study, we used pantothenate synthetase because of existence inhibitors. We have reported the discovery of new antitubercular compounds through ligand based approaches using computational tools.

Keywords: In Silico, Ligand-based Virtual Screening, Metabolic Pathways, Mycobacterium tuberculosis

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Authors: Helen Zhang

Abstract:

Accurate segmentation of the airways from CT scans is crucial for early diagnosis of lung cancer. However, the existing airway segmentation algorithms often rely on thin-slice CT scans, which can be inconvenient and costly. This paper presents a set of machine learning-based 3D super-resolution algorithms along heterogenous dimensions to improve the resolution of thicker CT scans to reduce the reliance on thin-slice scans. To evaluate the efficacy of the super-resolution algorithms, quantitative assessments using PSNR (Peak Signal to Noise Ratio) and SSIM (Structural SIMilarity index) were performed. The impact of super-resolution on airway segmentation accuracy is also studied. The proposed approach has the potential to make airway segmentation more accessible and affordable, thereby facilitating early diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer.

Keywords: 3D super-resolution, airway segmentation, thin-slice CT scans, machine learning.

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Authors: Seong-Bae Park, Sang-Soo Kim, Sewook Oh, Zooyl Zeong, Hojin Lee, Seong Rae Park

Abstract:

An ontology is widely used in many kinds of applications as a knowledge representation tool for domain knowledge. However, even though an ontology schema is well prepared by domain experts, it is tedious and cost-intensive to add instances into the ontology. The most confident and trust-worthy way to add instances into the ontology is to gather instances from tables in the related Web pages. In automatic populating of instances, the primary task is to find the most proper concept among all possible concepts within the ontology for a given table. This paper proposes a novel method for this problem by defining the similarity between the table and the concept using the overlap of their properties. According to a series of experiments, the proposed method achieves 76.98% of accuracy. This implies that the proposed method is a plausible way for automatic ontology population from Web tables.

Keywords: Ontology population, domain knowledge consolidation, target concept selection, property overlap.

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Authors: Wenzhe Li, Xiaoyu Ying, Grace Ding

Abstract:

Architecture plane form is an important consideration in the design of green buildings due to its significant impact on energy performance. The most effective method to consider energy performance in the early design stages is parametric modelling. This paper presents a methodology to program plane forms using MATLAB language, generating 16 kinds of plane forms by changing four designed parameters. DesignBuilder (an energy consumption simulation software) was proposed to simulate the energy consumption of the generated planes. A regression mathematical model was established to study the relationship between the plane forms and their energy consumption. The main finding of the study suggested that there was a cubic function relationship between the depth-ratio of U-shaped buildings and energy consumption, and there is also a cubic function relationship between the width-ratio and energy consumption. In the design, the depth-ratio of U-shaped buildings should not be less than 2.5, and the width-ratio should not be less than 2.

Keywords: Graphic parameterization, green building design, mathematical model, U-shaped buildings.

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Authors: Dursun Aydın

Abstract:

In this paper, estimation of the linear regression model is made by ordinary least squares method and the partially linear regression model is estimated by penalized least squares method using smoothing spline. Then, it is investigated that differences and similarity in the sum of squares related for linear regression and partial linear regression models (semi-parametric regression models). It is denoted that the sum of squares in linear regression is reduced to sum of squares in partial linear regression models. Furthermore, we indicated that various sums of squares in the linear regression are similar to different deviance statements in partial linear regression. In addition to, coefficient of the determination derived in linear regression model is easily generalized to coefficient of the determination of the partial linear regression model. For this aim, it is made two different applications. A simulated and a real data set are considered to prove the claim mentioned here. In this way, this study is supported with a simulation and a real data example.

Keywords: Partial Linear Regression Model, Linear RegressionModel, Residuals, Deviance, Smoothing Spline.

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Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

Abstract:

The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: Evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO.

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Authors: Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Moonyong Lee

Abstract:

The interactions between input/output variables are a very common phenomenon encountered in the design of multi-loop controllers for interacting multivariable processes, which can be a serious obstacle for achieving a good overall performance of multiloop control system. To overcome this impediment, the decomposed dynamic interaction analysis is proposed by decomposing the multiloop control system into a set of n independent SISO systems with the corresponding effective open-loop transfer function (EOTF) within the dynamic interactions embedded explicitly. For each EOTF, the reduced model is independently formulated by using the proposed reduction design strategy, and then the paired multi-loop proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is derived quite simply and straightforwardly by using internal model control (IMC) theory. This design method can easily be implemented for various industrial processes because of its effectiveness. Several case studies are considered to demonstrate the superior of the proposed method.

Keywords: Multi-loop PID controller, internal model control(IMC), effective open-loop transfer function (EOTF)

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Authors: Osama Mohamed Elrajubi, Idris El-Feghi, Mohamed Abu Baker Saghayer

Abstract:

This paper describes an identification of specific shapes within binary images using the morphological Hit-or-Miss Transform (HMT). Hit-or-Miss transform is a general binary morphological operation that can be used in searching of particular patterns of foreground and background pixels in an image. It is actually a basic operation of binary morphology since almost all other binary morphological operators are derived from it. The input of this method is a binary image and a structuring element (a template which will be searched in a binary image) while the output is another binary image. In this paper a modification of Hit-or-Miss transform has been proposed. The accuracy of algorithm is adjusted according to the similarity of the template and the sought template. The implementation of this method has been done by C language. The algorithm has been tested on several images and the results have shown that this new method can be used for similar shape detection.

Keywords: Hit-or/and-Miss Operator/Transform, HMT, binary morphological operation, shape detection, binary images processing.

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Authors: Peter A. Bibby

Abstract:

Research has suggested that implicit learning tasks may rely on episodic processing to generate above chance performance on the standard classification tasks. The current research examines the invariant features task (McGeorge and Burton, 1990) and argues that such episodic processing is indeed important. The results of the experiment suggest that both rejection and similarity strategies are used by participants in this task to simultaneously reject unfamiliar items and to accept (falsely) familiar items. Primarily these decisions are based on the presence of low or high frequency goal based features of the stimuli presented in the incidental learning phase. It is proposed that a goal based analysis of the incidental learning task provides a simple step in understanding which features of the episodic processing are most important for explaining the match between incidental, implicit learning and test performance.

Keywords: Episodic processing, incidental learning, implicitlearning, invariant learning.

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Authors: Sidhartha Panda, N.P.Padhy, R.N.Patel

Abstract:

This paper presents a procedure for modeling and tuning the parameters of Thyristor Controlled Series Compensation (TCSC) controller in a multi-machine power system to improve transient stability. First a simple transfer function model of TCSC controller for stability improvement is developed and the parameters of the proposed controller are optimally tuned. Genetic algorithm (GA) is employed for the optimization of the parameter-constrained nonlinear optimization problem implemented in a simulation environment. By minimizing an objective function in which the oscillatory rotor angle deviations of the generators are involved, transient stability performance of the system is improved. The proposed TCSC controller is tested on a multi-machine system and the simulation results are presented. The nonlinear simulation results validate the effectiveness of proposed approach for transient stability improvement in a multimachine power system installed with a TCSC. The simulation results also show that the proposed TCSC controller is also effective in damping low frequency oscillations.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, TCSC, transient stability, multimachinepower system.

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Authors: V. Vicente E. Mujica, Gustavo Gonzalez

Abstract:

The global coverage of broadband multimedia and internet-based services in terrestrial-satellite networks demand particular interests for satellite providers in order to enhance services with low latencies and high signal quality to diverse users. In particular, the delay of on-board processing is an inherent source of latency in a satellite communication that sometimes is discarded for the end-to-end delay of the satellite link. The frame work for this paper includes modelling of an on-orbit satellite payload using an agent model that can reproduce the properties of processing delays. In essence, a comparison of different spatial interpolation methods is carried out to evaluate physical data obtained by an GEO satellite in order to define a discretization function for determining that delay. Furthermore, the performance of the proposed agent and the development of a delay discretization function are together validated by simulating an hybrid satellite and terrestrial network. Simulation results show high accuracy according to the characteristics of initial data points of processing delay for Ku bands.

Keywords: Terrestrial-satellite networks, latency, on-orbit satellite payload, simulation.

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Authors: Ajay Shekhar Pandey, D. Singh, S. K. Sinha

Abstract:

A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.

Keywords: Load forecasting, clustering, fuzzy inference.

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