Search results for: mixed method analysis

Authors: Min Sun, Zhenyu Liu

Abstract:

In this paper, a new descent-projection method with a new search direction for monotone structured variational inequalities is proposed. The method is simple, which needs only projections and some function evaluations, so its computational load is very tiny. Under mild conditions on the problem-s data, the method is proved to converges globally. Some preliminary computational results are also reported to illustrate the efficiency of the method.

Keywords: variational inequalities, monotone function, global convergence.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

In this paper, a model is proposed to determine the life distribution parameters of the useful life region for the PV system utilizing a combination of non-parametric and linear regression analysis for the failure data of these systems. Results showed that this method is dependable for analyzing failure time data for such reliable systems when the data is scarce.

Keywords: Masking, Bathtub model, reliability, non-parametric analysis, useful life.

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Authors: Diako Azizi, Ahmad Gholami, Vahid Abbasi

Abstract:

High voltage generators are being subject to higher voltage rating and are being designed to operate in harsh conditions. Stator windings are the main component of generators in which Electrical, magnetically and thermal stresses remain major failures for insulation degradation accelerated aging. A large number of generators failed due to stator winding problems, mainly insulation deterioration. Insulation degradation assessment plays vital role in the asset life management. Mostly the stator failure is catastrophic causing significant damage to the plant. Other than generation loss, stator failure involves heavy repair or replacement cost. Electro thermal analysis is the main characteristic for improvement design of stator slot-s insulation. Dielectric parameters such as insulation thickness, spacing, material types, geometry of winding and slot are major design consideration. A very powerful method available to analyze electro thermal performance is Finite Element Method (FEM) which is used in this paper. The analysis of various stator coil and slot configurations are used to design the better dielectric system to reduce electrical and thermal stresses in order to increase the power of generator in the same volume of core. This paper describes the process used to perform classical design and improvement analysis of stator slot-s insulation.

Keywords: Electromagnetic field, field distribution, insulation, winding, finite element method

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Authors: Thea Freese

Abstract:

Environmental legislation to protect North and Baltic Sea areas from harmful vessel-source emissions has received increased political attention in recent years. Legislative measures are expected to show positive effects on the health of the marine environment and society. At the same time, compliance might increase the costs to industry and have effects on freight rates and volumes shipped with potential negative repercussions on the environment. Building on an exploratory sequential mixed methods approach, this research project will study the economic effects of maritime environmental legislation in two phases. In Phase I, exploratory in-depth interviews were conducted with 12 experts from various stakeholder groups aiming at identifying variables influencing the relationship between environmental legislation, freight rates and volumes shipped. Influencing factors like compliance, enforcement and modal shift were identified and studied. Phase II will comprise of a quantitative study conducted with the aim of verifying the theory build in Phase I and quantifying economic effects of rules on shipping pollution. Research in this field might inform policy-makers about determinants of behaviour of ship operators in the face of the law and might further the development of a comprehensive legal system for marine environmental protection. At the present stage of research, first tentative results from the qualitative phase may be examined and open research questions to be addressed in the quantitative phase as well as possible research designs for phase II may be discussed. Input from other researchers will be highly valuable at this point.

Keywords: Clean shipping operations, compliance, maritime environmental legislation, maritime law and economics, mixed methods research, North and Baltic Sea area.

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Authors: Shazalina Mat Zin, Ahmad Abd. Majid, Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail, Muhammad Abbas

Abstract:

The generalized wave equation models various problems in sciences and engineering. In this paper, a new three-time level implicit approach based on cubic trigonometric B-spline for the approximate solution of wave equation is developed. The usual finite difference approach is used to discretize the time derivative while cubic trigonometric B-spline is applied as an interpolating function in the space dimension. Von Neumann stability analysis is used to analyze the proposed method. Two problems are discussed to exhibit the feasibility and capability of the method. The absolute errors and maximum error are computed to assess the performance of the proposed method. The results were found to be in good agreement with known solutions and with existing schemes in literature.

Keywords: Collocation method, Cubic trigonometric B-spline, Finite difference, Wave equation.

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Authors: Murugan Marimuthu, Jeyabharath Rajaih

Abstract:

This paper describes a simple way to control the speed of PMBLDC motor using Fuzzy logic control method. In the conventional PI controller the performance of the motor system is simulated and the speed is regulated by using PI controller. These methods used to improve the performance of PMSM drives, but in some cases at different operating conditions when the dynamics of the system also vary over time and it can change the reference speed, parameter variations and the load disturbance. The simulation is powered with the MATLAB program to get a reliable and flexible simulation. In order to highlight the effectiveness of the speed control method the FLC method is used. The proposed method targeted in achieving the improved dynamic performance and avoids the variations of the motor drive. This drive has high accuracy, robust operation from near zero to high speed. The effectiveness and flexibility of the individual techniques of the speed control method will be thoroughly discussed for merits and demerits and finally verified through simulation and experimental results for comparative analysis.

Keywords: Hall position sensors, permanent magnet brushless DC motor, PI controller, Fuzzy Controller.

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Authors: A. Farshidianfar, P. Oliazadeh, M. H. Farshidianfar

Abstract:

In order to study the free vibration of simply supported circular cylindrical shells; an analytical procedure is developed and discussed in detail. To identify its’ validity, the exact technique was applied to four different shell theories 1) Soedel, 2) Flugge, 3) Morley-Koiter, and 4) Donnell. The exact procedure was compared favorably with experimental results and those obtained using the numerical finite element method. A literature review reveals that beam functions are used extensively as an approximation for simply supported boundary conditions. The effects of this approximate method were also investigated on the natural frequencies by comparing results with those of the exact analysis.

Keywords: Circular Cylindrical Shell, Free Vibration, Natural Frequency.

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Authors: Azeemsha Thacham Poyil, Nasimudeen KM

Abstract:

This research paper presents some methods to assess the performance of Wigner Ville Distribution for Time-Frequency representation of non-stationary signals, in comparison with the other representations like STFT, Spectrogram etc. The simultaneous timefrequency resolution of WVD is one of the important properties which makes it preferable for analysis and detection of linear FM and transient signals. There are two algorithms proposed here to assess the resolution and to compare the performance of signal detection. First method is based on the measurement of area under timefrequency plot; in case of a linear FM signal analysis. A second method is based on the instantaneous power calculation and is used in case of transient, non-stationary signals. The implementation is explained briefly for both methods with suitable diagrams. The accuracy of the measurements is validated to show the better performance of WVD representation in comparison with STFT and Spectrograms.

Keywords: WVD: Wigner Ville Distribution, STFT: Short Time Fourier Transform, FT: Fourier Transform, TFR: Time-Frequency Representation, FM: Frequency Modulation, LFM Signal: Linear FM Signal, JTFA: Joint time frequency analysis.

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Authors: R. Samsudin, Yogendra, Hairil Satar, Y.Zaidey

Abstract:

Power transformer consists of components which are under consistent thermal and electrical stresses. The major component which degrades under these stresses is the paper insulation of the power transformer. At site, lightning impulses and cable faults may cause the winding deformation. In addition, the winding may deform due to impact during transportation. A deformed winding will excite more stress to its insulating paper thus will degrade it. Insulation degradation will shorten the life-span of the transformer. Currently there are two methods of detecting the winding deformation which are Sweep Frequency Response Analysis (SFRA) and Low Voltage Impulse Test (LVI). The latter injects current pulses to the winding and capture the admittance plot. In this paper, a transformer which experienced overheating and arcing was identified, and both SFRA and LVI were performed. Next, the transformer was brought to the factory for untanking. The untanking results revealed that the LVI is more accurate than the SFRA method for this case study.

Keywords: Winding Deformation, Arcing, Dissolved GasAnalysis, Sweep Frequency Response Analysis, Low VoltageImpulse Method

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Authors: Amin Almasi

Abstract:

Reliability assessment and risk analysis of rotating machine rotors in various overload and malfunction situations present challenge to engineers and operators. In this paper a new analytical method for evaluation of rotor under large deformation is addressed. Model is presented in general form to include also composite rotors. Presented simulation procedure is based on variational work method and has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, large displacement, nonlinear support effect and rotor contacting other machine components. New shape functions are presented which capable to predict accurate nonlinear profile of rotor. The closed form solutions for various operating and malfunction situations are expressed. Analytical simulation results are discussed

Keywords: Large Deformation, Nonlinear, Rotor.

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Authors: Reza Cheraghi Kootiani, Ariffin Bin Samsuri

Abstract:

To derive the fractional flow equation oil displacement will be assumed to take place under the so-called diffusive flow condition. The constraints are that fluid saturations at any point in the linear displacement path are uniformly distributed with respect to thickness; this allows the displacement to be described mathematically in one dimension. The simultaneous flow of oil and water can be modeled using thickness averaged relative permeability, along the centerline of the reservoir. The condition for fluid potential equilibrium is simply that of hydrostatic equilibrium for which the saturation distribution can be determined as a function of capillary pressure and therefore, height. That is the fluids are distributed in accordance with capillary-gravity equilibrium. This paper focused on the fraction flow of water versus cumulative oil recoveries using Buckley Leverett method. Several field cases have been developed to aid in analysis. Producing watercut (at surface conditions) will be compared with the cumulative oil recovery at breakthrough for the flowing fluid.

Keywords: Fractional Flow, Fluid Saturations, Permeability, Cumulative Oil Recoveries, Buckley Leverett Method.

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Authors: J.S.C. Prentice

Abstract:

The RK5GL3 method is a numerical method for solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations, and is based on a combination of a fifth-order Runge-Kutta method and 3-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. In this paper we describe the propagation of local errors in this method, and show that the global order of RK5GL3 is expected to be six, one better than the underlying Runge- Kutta method.

Keywords: RK5GL3, RKrGLm, Runge-Kutta, Gauss-Legendre, initial value problem, order, local error, global error.

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Authors: F. Sokhanvar, A. B. Khoshnevis

Abstract:

In the present work steady inviscid hypersonic flows are calculated by approximate Method. Maslens' inverse method is the chosen approximate method. For the inverse problem, parabolic shock shape is chosen for the two-dimensional flow, and the body shape and flow field are calculated using Maslen's method. For the axisymmetric inverse problem paraboloidal shock is chosen and the surface distribution of pressure is obtained.

Keywords: Hypersonic flow, Inverse problem method

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Authors: Diako Azizi, Ahmad Gholami, Vahid Abbasi

Abstract:

High voltage generators are being subject to higher voltage rating and are being designed to operate in harsh conditions. Stator windings are the main component of generators in which Electrical, magnetical and thermal stresses remain major failures for insulation degradation accelerated aging. A large number of generators failed due to stator winding problems, mainly insulation deterioration. Insulation degradation assessment plays vital role in the asset life management. Mostly the stator failure is catastrophic causing significant damage to the plant. Other than generation loss, stator failure involves heavy repair or replacement cost. Electro thermal analysis is the main characteristic for improvement design of stator slot-s insulation. Dielectric parameters such as insulation thickness, spacing, material types, geometry of winding and slot are major design consideration. A very powerful method available to analyze electro thermal performance is Finite Element Method (FEM) which is used in this paper. The analysis of various stator coil and slot configurations are used to design the better dielectric system to reduce electrical and thermal stresses in order to increase the power of generator in the same volume of core. This paper describes the process used to perform classical design and improvement analysis of stator slot-s insulation.

Keywords: Electrical field, field distribution, insulation, winding, finite element method, electro thermal

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Authors: José Peralta, Gabriela Peretti, Eduardo Romero, Carlos Marqués

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new performance characterization for the test strategy intended for second order filters denominated Transient Analysis Method (TRAM). We evaluate the ability of the addressed test strategy for detecting deviation faults under simultaneous statistical fluctuation of the non-faulty parameters. For this purpose, we use Monte Carlo simulations and a fault model that considers as faulty only one component of the filter under test while the others components adopt random values (within their tolerance band) obtained from their statistical distributions. The new data reported here show (for the filters under study) the presence of hard-to-test components and relatively low fault coverage values for small deviation faults. These results suggest that the fault coverage value obtained using only nominal values for the non-faulty components (the traditional evaluation of TRAM) seem to be a poor predictor of the test performance.

Keywords: testing, fault analysis, analog filter test, parametric faults detection.

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Authors: Yong-Quan Zhou, Deng-Xu He, Zheng Nong

Abstract:

In this paper two models using a functional network were employed to solving classification problem. Functional networks are generalized neural networks, which permit the specification of their initial topology using knowledge about the problem at hand. In this case, and after analyzing the available data and their relations, we systematically discuss a numerical analysis method used for functional network, and apply two functional network models to solving XOR problem. The XOR problem that cannot be solved with two-layered neural network can be solved by two-layered functional network, which reveals a potent computational power of functional networks, and the performance of the proposed model was validated using classification problems.

Keywords: Functional network, neural network, XOR problem, classification, numerical analysis method.

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Authors: E. Krasnova, E. Bulgakova, V. Shchemelinin

Abstract:

The paper deals with acoustic-spectrographic voice identification method in terms of its performance in non-native language speech. Performance evaluation is conducted by comparing the result of the analysis of recordings containing native language speech with recordings that contain foreign language speech. Our research is based on Tajik and Russian speech of Tajik native speakers due to the character of the criminal situation with drug trafficking. We propose a pilot experiment that represents a primary attempt enter the field.

Keywords: Speaker identification, acoustic-spectrographic method, non-native speech.

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Authors: I. Krasnova, L. Dukalska, D. Seglina, K. Juhnevica, E. Sne, D. Karklina

Abstract:

Experiments were carried out at the Latvia State Institute of Fruit-Growing in 2011. Fresh-cut minimally processed apple and pear mixed salad were packed by passive modified atmosphere (MAP) in PP containers, which were hermetically sealed by breathable conventional BOPP PropafreshTM P2GAF, and Amcor Agrifresh films. Biodegradable NatureFlexTM NVS INNOVIA Films and VC999 BioPack PLA films coated with a barrier of pure silicon oxide (SiOx) were used to compare the fresh-cut produce quality with this packed in conventional packaging films. Samples were cold stored at temperature +4.0±0.5 °C up to 10 days. The quality of salad was evaluated by physicochemical properties – weight losses, moisture, firmness, the effect of packaging modes on the colour, dynamics in headspace atmosphere concentration (CO2 and O2), titratable acidity values, as well as by microbiological contamination (yeasts, moulds and total bacteria count) of salads, analyzing before packaging and after 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 storage days.

Keywords: Biodegradable packaging, conventional, fresh-cut fruit salad

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Authors: R. Xu, X. Zhao, X. Li, C. Kwan, C.-I Chang

Abstract:

An image texture analysis and target recognition approach of using an improved image texture feature coding method (TFCM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) for target detection is presented. With our proposed target detection framework, targets of interest can be detected accurately. Cascade-Sliding-Window technique was also developed for automated target localization. Application to mammogram showed that over 88% of normal mammograms and 80% of abnormal mammograms can be correctly identified. The approach was also successfully applied to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) images for target detection.

Keywords: Image texture analysis, feature extraction, target detection, pattern classification.

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Authors: Jeries Khoury

Abstract:

The use of legendary, folkloric and religious symbols is one of the most important phenomena in modern Arabic poetry. Interestingly enough, most of the modern Arabic poetry’s pioneers were so fascinated by the biblical symbols and they managed to use many modern techniques to make these symbols adequate for their personal life from one side and fit to their Islamic beliefs from the other. One of the most famous poets to do so was al-Sayya:b. The way he employed one of these symbols ‘job’, the new features he adds to this character and the link between this character and his personal life will be discussed in this study. Besides, the study will examine the influence of al-Sayya:b on another modern poet Saadi Yusuf, who, following al-Sayya:b, used the character of Job in a special way, by mixing its features with al-Sayya:b’s personal features and in this way creating a new mixed character. A semantic, cultural and comparative analysis of the poems written by al-Sayya:b himself and the other poets who evoked the mixed image of al-Sayya:b-Job, can reveal the changes Arab poets made to the original biblical figure of Job to bring it closer to Islamic culture. The paper will make an intensive use of intertextuality idioms in order to shed light on the network of relations between three kinds of texts (indeed three ‘palimpsests’: 1- biblical- the primary text; 2- poetic- al-Syya:b’s secondary version; 3- re-poetic- Sa’di Yusuf’s tertiary version). The bottom line in this paper is that that al-Sayya:b was directly influenced by the dramatic biblical story of Job more than the brief Quranic version of the story. In fact, the ‘new’ character of Job designed by al-Sayya:b himself differs from the original one in many aspects that we can safely say it is the Sayyabian-Job that cannot be found in the poems of any other poets, unless they are evoking the own tragedy of al-Sayya:b himself, like what Saadi Yusuf did.

Keywords: Arabic poetry, intertextuality, job, meter, modernism, symbolism.

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Authors: Reza Ziaie Moayed, Ehsan Azini

Abstract:

Jet grouting (JG) is one of the methods of improving and increasing the strength and bearing of soil in which the high pressure water or grout is injected through the nozzles into the soil. During this process, a part of the soil and grout particles comes out of the drill borehole, and the other part is mixed up with the grout in place, as a result of this process, a mass of modified soil is created. The purpose of this method is to change the soil into a mixture of soil and cement, commonly known as "soil-cement". In this paper, first, the principles of high pressure injection and then the effective parameters in the JG method are described. Then, the tests on the samples taken from the columns formed from the excavation around the soil-cement columns, as well as the static loading test on the created column, are discussed. In the other part of this paper, the soil behavior models for numerical modeling in PLAXIS software are mentioned. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the results of numerical modeling based on in-situ static loading tests. The results indicate an acceptable agreement between the results of the tests mentioned and the modeling results. Also, modeling with this software as an appropriate option for technical feasibility can be used to soil improvement using JG.

Keywords: Jet grouting column, Soil improvement, Numerical modeling, In-situ loading test.

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Authors: W. Rowan, Y. O’Connor, L. Lynch, C. Heavin

Abstract:

Situation Awareness can offer the potential for conscious dynamic reflection. In an era of online health data sharing, it is becoming increasingly important that users of health social networks (HSNs) have the information necessary to make informed decisions as part of the registration process and in the provision of eConsent. This research aims to leverage an adapted Situation Awareness (SA) model to explore users’ decision making processes in the provision of eConsent. A HSN platform was used to investigate these behaviours. A mixed methods approach was taken. This involved the observation of registration behaviours followed by a questionnaire and focus group/s. Early results suggest that users are apt to automatically accept eConsent, and only later consider the long-term implications of sharing their personal health information. Further steps are required to continue developing knowledge and understanding of this important eConsent process. The next step in this research will be to develop a set of guidelines for the improved presentation of eConsent on the HSN platform.

Keywords: eConsent, health social network, mixed methods, situation awareness.

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Authors: Yuriy Tasinkevych, Eugene Danicki

Abstract:

Planar systems of electrodes arranged on both sides of dielectric piezoelectric layer are applied in numerous transducers. They are capable of electronic beam-steering of generated wave both in azimuth and elevation. The wave-beam control is achieved by addressable driving of two-dimensional transducer through proper voltage supply of electrodes on opposite surfaces of the layer. In this paper a semi-analytical method of analysis of the considered transducer is proposed, which is a generalization of the well-known BIS-expansion method. It was earlier exploited with great success in the theory of interdigital transducers of surface acoustic waves, theory of elastic wave scattering by cracks and certain advanced electrostatic problems. The corresponding nontrivial electrostatic problem is formulated and solved numerically.

Keywords: Beamforming, transducer array, BIS-expansion.

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Authors: Yuriy Tasinkevych, Eugene Danicki

Abstract:

Planar systems of electrodes arranged on both sides of dielectric piezoelectric layer are applied in numerous transducers. They are capable of electronic beam-steering of generated wave both in azimuth and elevation. The wave-beam control is achieved by addressable driving of two-dimensional transducer through proper voltage supply of electrodes on opposite surfaces of the layer. In this paper a semi-analytical method of analysis of the considered transducer is proposed, which is a generalization of the well-known BIS-expansion method. It was earlier exploited with great success in the theory of interdigital transducers of surface acoustic waves, theory of elastic wave scattering by cracks and certain advanced electrostatic problems. The corresponding nontrivial electrostatic problem is formulated and solved numerically.

Keywords: Beamforming, transducer array, BIS-expansion.

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Authors: C. C. Wang, N. S. Pai, H. T. Yau, T. T. Liao, M. J. Jang, C. W. Lee, W. M. Hong

Abstract:

Horizontal platform system (HPS) is popularly applied in offshore and earthquake technology, but it is difficult and time-consuming for regulation. In order to understand the nonlinear dynamic behavior of HPS and reduce the cost when using it, this paper employs differential transformation method to study the bifurcation behavior of HPS. The numerical results reveal a complex dynamic behavior comprising periodic, sub-harmonic, and chaotic responses. Furthermore, the results reveal the changes which take place in the dynamic behavior of the HPS as the external torque is increased. Therefore, the proposed method provides an effective means of gaining insights into the nonlinear dynamics of horizontal platform system.

Keywords: horizontal platform system, differentialtransformation method, chaotic.

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Authors: Jaharah A. Ghani, Muhammad Rizal, Ahmad Sayuti, Mohd Zaki Nuawi, Mohd Nizam Ab. Rahman, Che Hassan Che Haron

Abstract:

This study presents a new method for detecting the cutting tool wear based on the measured cutting force signals using the regression model and I-kaz method. The detection of tool wear was done automatically using the in-house developed regression model and 3D graphic presentation of I-kaz 3D coefficient during machining process. The machining tests were carried out on a CNC turning machine Colchester Master Tornado T4 in dry cutting condition, and Kistler 9255B dynamometer was used to measure the cutting force signals, which then stored and displayed in the DasyLab software. The progression of the cutting tool flank wear land (VB) was indicated by the amount of the cutting force generated. Later, the I-kaz was used to analyze all the cutting force signals from beginning of the cut until the rejection stage of the cutting tool. Results of the IKaz analysis were represented by various characteristic of I-kaz 3D coefficient and 3D graphic presentation. The I-kaz 3D coefficient number decreases when the tool wear increases. This method can be used for real time tool wear monitoring.

Keywords: mathematical model, I-kaz method, tool wear

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Authors: M. Nageswara Rao, N. Sumathi, V. S. N. K. Chaitanya

Abstract:

In electrical power system, high voltage insulators are necessary for consistent performance. All insulators are exposed to different mechanical and electrical stresses. Mechanical stresses occur due to various loads such as wind load, hardware and conductors weight. Electrical stresses are due to over voltages and operating voltages. The performance analysis of polymer insulators is an essential, as most of the electrical utility companies are employing polymer insulators for new and updated transmission lines. In this paper, electric field is analyzed for 400 kV silicone (SiR) composite insulator by COULOMB 3D software based on boundary element method. The field results are compared with EPRI reference values. Our results proved that values at critical regions are very less compared to EPRI reference values. And also experimentally 400 kV single V suspension string is evaluated as per IEC standards.

Keywords: Electric field analysis, silicone composite insulator, boundary element method, RIV, Corona.

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Authors: Chia-Chih Wei, Yun-Qi Li, Ssu-Ying Chen, Hsuan-Jung Chen, Hsi-Wen Yang, Chih-Yuan Chen, Chien-Chon Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we used a high-quality anodization technique to make a colored wind chime with a nano-tube structure anodic film, which controls the length-to-diameter ratio of an aluminum rod and controls the oxide film structure on the surface of the aluminum rod by an anodizing method. The research experiment used hard anodization to grow a controllable thickness of anodic film on an aluminum alloy surface. The hard anodization film has high hardness, high insulation, high-temperature resistance, good corrosion resistance, colors, and mass production properties that can be further applied to transportation, electronic products, biomedical fields, or energy industry applications. This study also provides in-depth research and a detailed discussion of the related process of aluminum alloy surface hard anodizing, including pre-anodization, anodization, and post-anodization. The experiment parameters of anodization include using a mixed acid solution of sulfuric acid and oxalic acid as an anodization electrolyte and controlling the temperature, time, current density, and final voltage to obtain the anodic film. In the results of the experiments, the properties of the anodic film, including thickness, hardness, insulation, and corrosion characteristics, the microstructure of the anode film were measured, and the hard anodization efficiency was calculated. Thereby it can obtain different transmission speeds of sound in the aluminum rod. And, different audio sounds can present on the aluminum rod. Another feature of the present experiment result is the use of the anodizing method and dyeing method, laser engraving patterning and electrophoresis method to make good-quality colored aluminum wind chimes.

Keywords: Anodization, aluminum, wind chime, nano-tube.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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Authors: A. Nuric, S. Nuric, L. Kricak, I. Lapandic, R. Husagic

Abstract:

This paper describes topic of computer simulation with regard to the ground movement above an underground mine. Simulation made with software package ADINA for nonlinear elastic-plastic analysis with finite elements method. The one of representative profiles from Mine 'Stara Jama' in Zenica has been investigated. A collection and selection of both geo-mechanical data and geometric parameters of the mine was necessary for performing these simulations. Results of estimation have been compared with measured values (vertical displacement of surface), and then simulation performed with assumed dynamic and dimensions of excavation, over a period of time. Results are presented with bitmaps and charts.

Keywords: Computer, finite element method, mine, nonlinear analysis, numerical modeling, simulation, subsidence.

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