Search results for: forecasting accuracy

Authors: GuoQiang Peng, Yi Sun

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the work in [1], we further give a general model for acquiring knowledge, which first focuses on the research of how and when things involved in problems are made then describes the goals, the energy and the time to give an optimum model to decide how many related things are supposed to be involved in. Finally, we acquire knowledge from this model in which there are the attributes, actions and connections of the things involved at the time when they are born and the time in their life. This model not only improves AI theories, but also surely brings the effectiveness and accuracy for AI system because systems are given more knowledge when reasoning or computing is used to bring about results.

Keywords: Time, knowledge, model.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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Authors: Wen-Chi Hou, Cheng Luo, Zhewei Jiang, Feng Yan

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In this research, we propose to use the discrete cosine transform to approximate the cumulative distributions of data cube cells- values. The cosine transform is known to have a good energy compaction property and thus can approximate data distribution functions easily with small number of coefficients. The derived estimator is accurate and easy to update. We perform experiments to compare its performance with a well-known technique - the (Haar) wavelet. The experimental results show that the cosine transform performs much better than the wavelet in estimation accuracy, speed, space efficiency, and update easiness.

Keywords: DCT, Data Cube

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Authors: Li Xu, Huanbao Jiang, Zhenfei Huang, Lailai Zhang

Abstract:

In recent years, as global warming, the sea-ice extent of North Arctic undergoes an evident decrease and Arctic channel has attracted the attention of shipping industry. Ice crystals existing in the seawater of Arctic channel which enter the seawater system of the ship with the seawater were found blocking the seawater pipe. The appearance of cooler paralysis, auxiliary machine error and even ship power system paralysis may be happened if seriously. In order to reduce the effect of high temperature in auxiliary equipment, seawater system will use external ice-water to participate in the cooling cycle and achieve the state of its flow. The distribution of ice crystals in seawater pipe can be achieved. As the ice slurry system is solid liquid two-phase system, the flow process of ice-water mixture is very complex and diverse. In this paper, the flow process in seawater pipe of ice slurry is simulated with fluid dynamics simulation software based on k-ε turbulence model. As the ice packing fraction is a key factor effecting the distribution of ice crystals, the influence of ice packing fraction on the flowing process of ice slurry is analyzed. In this work, the simulation results show that as the ice packing fraction is relatively large, the distribution of ice crystals is uneven in the flowing process of the seawater which has such disadvantage as increase the possibility of blocking, that will provide scientific forecasting methods for the forming of ice block in seawater piping system. It has important significance for the reliability of the operating of polar ships in the future.

Keywords: Ice slurry, seawater pipe, ice packing fraction, numerical simulation.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Gholamreza Hojjati, Kourosh Parand

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In this paper we propose a class of second derivative multistep methods for solving some well-known classes of Lane- Emden type equations which are nonlinear ordinary differential equations on the semi-infinite domain. These methods, which have good stability and accuracy properties, are useful in deal with stiff ODEs. We show superiority of these methods by applying them on the some famous Lane-Emden type equations.

Keywords: Lane-Emden type equations, nonlinear ODE, stiff problems, multistep methods, astrophysics.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Understanding driving behavior is a complicated researching topic. To describe accurate speed, flow and density of a multiclass users traffic flow, an adequate model is needed. In this study, we propose the concept of standard passenger car equivalent (SPCE) instead of passenger car equivalent (PCE) to estimate the influence of heavy vehicles and slow cars. Traffic cellular automata model is employed to calibrate and validate the results. According to the simulated results, the SPCE transformations present good accuracy.

Keywords: traffic flow, passenger car equivalent, cellular automata

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Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Martti Viljanen

Abstract:

A new analytical model is developed which provides close-formed solutions for both transient indoor and envelope temperature changes in buildings. Time-dependent boundary temperature is presented as Fourier series which can approximate real weather conditions. The final close-formed solutions are simple, concise, and comprehensive. The model was compared with numerical results and good accuracy was obtained. The model can be used as design and control guidelines in engineering applications for analysing mechanical heat transfer properties for buildings.

Keywords: Analytical model, heat transfer, whole building.

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Authors: N. Kumaresan, J. Kavikumar, M. Kumudthaa, Kuru Ratnavelu

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In this paper, solution of fuzzy differential equation under general differentiability is obtained by genetic programming (GP). The obtained solution in this method is equivalent or very close to the exact solution of the problem. Accuracy of the solution to this problem is qualitatively better. An illustrative numerical example is presented for the proposed method.

Keywords: Fuzzy differential equation, Generalized differentiability, Genetic programming and H-difference.

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Authors: Zhengsheng Wang, Jing Qi, Chuntao Liu, Yuanjun Li

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The harmonic Arnoldi method can be used to find interior eigenpairs of large matrices. However, it has been shown that this method may converge erratically and even may fail to do so. In this paper, we present a new method for computing interior eigenpairs of large nonsymmetric matrices, which is called weighted harmonic Arnoldi method. The implementation of the method has been tested by numerical examples, the results show that the method converges fast and works with high accuracy.

Keywords: Harmonic Arnoldi method, weighted harmonic Arnoldi method, eigenpair, interior eigenproblem, non symmetric matrix.

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Authors: Yiqin Lin, Liang Bao, Qinghua Wu, Liping Zhou

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In this paper, we propose a direct method based on the real Schur factorization for solving the projected Sylvester equation with relatively small size. The algebraic formula of the solution of the projected continuous-time Sylvester equation is presented. The computational cost of the direct method is estimated. Numerical experiments show that this direct method has high accuracy.

Keywords: Projected Sylvester equation, Schur factorization, Spectral projection, Direct method.

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Authors: Jalal Karam

Abstract:

In real-field applications, the correct determination of voice segments highly improves the overall system accuracy and minimises the total computation time. This paper presents reliable measures of speech compression by detcting the end points of the speech signals prior to compressing them. The two different compession schemes used are the Global threshold and the Level- Dependent threshold techniques. The performance of the proposed method is tested wirh the Signal to Noise Ratios, Peak Signal to Noise Ratios and Normalized Root Mean Square Error parameter measures.

Keywords: Wavelets, End-points Detection, Compression.

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Authors: Long Kim Vu, Ban Dang Nguyen

Abstract:

In this paper, the finite element method (FEM) is utilized to simulate the comprehensive process including tightening, releasing and self-loosening of a bolt joint under transverse vibration. Following to the accurate geometry of helical threads, an absolutely hexahedral meshing is implemented. The accuracy of simulation process is verified and validated by comparison with the experimental results on clamping force-vibration relationship, which shows the sufficient correlation. Further analysis with different amplitude and frequency of transverse vibration is done to determine the dominant factor inducing the failure.

Keywords: Bolt self-loosening, contact state, FEM, transverse vibration.

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Authors: S. N. Moghaddas Tafreshi, S. M. Amin Ghotbi

Abstract:

This paper presents a numerical study for investigating the effectiveness of geocell reinforcement in reducing pressure and settlement over EPS geofoam blocks in road embankments. A 3-D FEM model of soil and geofoam was created in ABAQUS, and geocell was also modeled realistically using membrane elements. The accuracy of the model was tested by comparing its results with previous works. Sensitivity analyses showed that reinforcing the soil cover with geocell has a significant influence on the reduction of imposed stresses over geofoam and consequently decreasing its deformation.

Keywords: EPS geofoam, road embankments, geocell, reinforcement, lightweight fill.

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Authors: A. Sopharak, B. Uyyanonvara, S. Barman

Abstract:

Diabetic retinopathy is characterized by the development of retinal microaneurysms. The damage can be prevented if disease is treated in its early stages. In this paper, we are comparing Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Naïve Bayes (NB) classifiers for automatic microaneurysm detection in images acquired through non-dilated pupils. The Nearest Neighbor classifier is used as a baseline for comparison. Detected microaneurysms are validated with expert ophthalmologists’ hand-drawn ground-truths. The sensitivity, specificity, precision and accuracy of each method are also compared.

Keywords: Diabetic retinopathy, microaneurysm, Naïve Bayes classifier, SVM classifier.

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Authors: Ji Hoon Kim, Hyung Gi Min, Jae Dong Cho, Jae Hoon Jang, Sung-Ha Kwon, Eun Tae Jeung

Abstract:

Since MEMS gyro sensors measure not angle of rotation but angular rate, an estimator is designed to estimate the angles in many applications. Gyro and accelerometer are used to improve estimating accuracy of the angle. This paper presents a method of finding filter coefficients of the well-known estimator which is to get rotation angles from gyro and accelerometer data. In order to verify the performance of our method, the estimated angle is compared with the encoder output in a rotary pendulum system.

Keywords: gyro, accelerometer, estimator, least square.

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Authors: Qurban A. Memon, Mohammad S. Laghari

Abstract:

Integration of system process information obtained through an image processing system with an evolving knowledge database to improve the accuracy and predictability of wear particle analysis is the main focus of the paper. The objective is to automate intelligently the analysis process of wear particle using classification via self organizing maps. This is achieved using relationship measurements among corresponding attributes of various measurements for wear particle. Finally, visualization technique is proposed that helps the viewer in understanding and utilizing these relationships that enable accurate diagnostics.

Keywords: Neural Network, Relationship Measurement, Selforganizing Clusters, Wear Particle Analysis.

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Authors: Jose J.CarreñoZagarra, Rodolfo Villamizar Mejía

Abstract:

This work describes a CACSD tool for automatic design of robust controllers for hydraulic turbines. The tool calculates the optimal
 controller using the MATLAB hinfopt function and it serves as a practical and effective solution for the laborious task of designing a different controller for each type of turbine and generator, and different parameters and conditions of the plant. Results of the simulation of a generating unit subject to parameters variation show the accuracy and efficiency of the obtained robust controllers.

Keywords: Robust Control, Hydroelectric System Turbine, Control H∞, CACSD

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Authors: Yong-Gyu Lee, Gilwon Yoon

Abstract:

Automatic detection of bleeding is of practical importance since capsule endoscopy produces an extremely large number of images. Algorithm development of bleeding detection in the digestive tract is difficult due to different contrasts among the images, food dregs, secretion and others. In this study, were assigned weighting factors derived from the independent features of the contrast and brightness between bleeding and normality. Spectral analysis based on weighting factors was fast and accurate. Results were a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 90% when the accuracy was determined for each pixel out of 42 endoscope images.

Keywords: bleeding, capsule endoscopy, image analysis, weighted spectrum

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Authors: Do Hyeung Kim, Dae Hee Seo, Byung Doo Kim, Byung Gil Lee

Abstract:

As many recent researches being implemented in aviation and maritime aspects, strong doubts have been raised concerning the reliability of the estimation of collision risk. It is shown that using position and velocity of objects can lead to imprecise results. In this paper, therefore, a new approach to the estimation of collision risks using pose and shape of objects is proposed. Simulation results are presented validating the accuracy of the new criterion to adapt to collision risk algorithm based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: Collision risk, Pose and shape, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Sudipta Majumdar, Harish Parthasarathy

Abstract:

In this paper, a wavelet based method is proposed to identify the constant coefficients of a second order linear system and is compared with the least squares method. The proposed method shows improved accuracy of parameter estimation as compared to the least squares method. Additionally, it has the advantage of smaller data requirement and storage requirement as compared to the least squares method.

Keywords: Least squares method, linear system, system identification, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Pushpa B. Patil, Manesh B. Kokare

Abstract:

This paper presents content-based image retrieval (CBIR) frameworks with relevance feedback (RF) based on combined learning of support vector machines (SVM) and AdaBoosts. The framework incorporates only most relevant images obtained from both the learning algorithm. To speed up the system, it removes irrelevant images from the database, which are returned from SVM learner. It is the key to achieve the effective retrieval performance in terms of time and accuracy. The experimental results show that this framework had significant improvement in retrieval effectiveness, which can finally improve the retrieval performance.

Keywords: Image retrieval, relevance feedback, wavelet transform.

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Authors: S.G.Venkatesh, S.K.Ayyaswamy, G.Hariharan

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a framework to determine Haar solutions of Bratu-type equations that are widely applicable in fuel ignition of the combustion theory and heat transfer. The method is proposed by applying Haar series for the highest derivatives and integrate the series. Several examples are given to confirm the efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed algorithm. The results show that the proposed way is quite reasonable when compared to exact solution.

Keywords: Haar wavelet method, Bratu's problem, boundary value problems, initial value problems, adomain decomposition method.

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Authors: L. Krpalkova, N. O' Mahony, A. Carvalho, S. Campbell, G. Corkery, E. Broderick, J. Walsh

Abstract:

Farm management and operations will drastically change due to access to real-time data, real-time forecasting and tracking of physical items in combination with Internet of Things (IoT) developments to further automate farm operations. Dairy farms have embraced technological innovations and procured vast amounts of permanent data streams during the past decade; however, the integration of this information to improve the whole farm decision-making process does not exist. It is now imperative to develop a system that can collect, integrate, manage, and analyze on-farm and off-farm data in real-time for practical and relevant environmental and economic actions. The developed systems, based on machine learning and artificial intelligence, need to be connected for useful output, a better understanding of the whole farming issue and environmental impact. Evolutionary Computing (EC) can be very effective in finding the optimal combination of sets of some objects and finally, in strategy determination. The system of the future should be able to manage the dairy farm as well as an experienced dairy farm manager with a team of the best agricultural advisors. All these changes should bring resilience and sustainability to dairy farming as well as improving and maintaining good animal welfare and the quality of dairy products. This review aims to provide an insight into the state-of-the-art of big data applications and EC in relation to smart dairy farming and identify the most important research and development challenges to be addressed in the future. Smart dairy farming influences every area of management and its uptake has become a continuing trend.

Keywords: Big data, evolutionary computing, cloud, precision technologies

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Authors: Chei-Chang Chiou, Sen-Wei Wang, Yu-Min Wang

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between corporate governance and pricing for initial public offerings (IPOs). Empirical result finds that the prediction of pricing of IPOs with corporate governance added can have a rather higher degree of predicting accuracy than that of non governance added during the training and testing samples. Therefore, it can be observed that corporate governance mechanism can affect the pricing of IPOs

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, corporate governance, initial public offerings.

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Authors: K. Freedman

Abstract:

In the present study, a support vector machine (SVM) learning approach to character recognition is proposed. Simple feature detectors, similar to those found in the human visual system, were used in the SVM classifier. Alphabetic characters were rotated to 8 different angles and using the proposed cognitive model, all characters were recognized with 100% accuracy and specificity. These same results were found in psychiatric studies of human character recognition.

Keywords: Character recognition, cognitive model, support vector machine learning.

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Authors: Alireza Ansariyar, Safieh Laaly

Abstract:

Over the last decades, the vehicle industry has shown increased interest in integrating autonomous, connected, and electrical technologies in vehicle design with the primary hope of improving mobility and road safety while reducing transportation’s environmental impact. Using the State of Maryland (M.D.) in the United States as a pilot study, this research investigates Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) fuel consumption and air pollutants including Carbon Monoxide (CO), Particulate Matter (PM), and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and utilizes meaningful linear regression models to predict CAV’s environmental effects. Maryland transportation network was simulated in VISUM software, and data on a set of variables were collected through a comprehensive survey. The number of pollutants and fuel consumption were obtained for the time interval 2010 to 2021 from the macro simulation. Eventually, four linear regression models were proposed to predict the amount of C.O., NOx, PM pollutants, and fuel consumption in the future. The results highlighted that CAVs’ pollutants and fuel consumption have a significant correlation with the income, age, and race of the CAV customers. Furthermore, the reliability of four statistical models was compared with the reliability of macro simulation model outputs in the year 2030. The error of three pollutants and fuel consumption was obtained at less than 9% by statistical models in SPSS. This study is expected to assist researchers and policymakers with planning decisions to reduce CAV environmental impacts in M.D.

Keywords: Connected and autonomous vehicles, statistical model, environmental effects, pollutants and fuel consumption, VISUM, linear regression models.

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Authors: A. M. Tahsini, S. A. Hosseini

Abstract:

In the present study, the surface temperature history of the adaptor part in a two-stage supersonic launch vehicle is accurately predicted. The full Navier-Stokes equations are used to estimate the aerodynamic heat flux and the one-dimensional heat conduction in solid phase is used to compute the temperature history. The instantaneous surface temperature is used to improve the applied heat flux, to improve the accuracy of the results.

Keywords: Aerodynamic heating, Heat conduction, Numerical simulation, Supersonic flight, Launch vehicle.

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Authors: A. Chidley, F. Roger, A. Traidia

Abstract:

A method is presented for using thermo-mechanical fatigue analysis as a tool in the design of automotive heat exchangers. Use of infra-red thermography to measure the real thermal history in the heat exchanger reduces the time necessary for calculating design parameters and improves prediction accuracy. Thermal shocks are the primary cause of heat exchanger damage. Thermo-mechanical simulation is based on the mean behavior of the aluminum tubes used in the heat exchanger. An energetic fatigue criterion is used to detect critical zones.

Keywords: Heat exchanger, Fatigue, Thermal shocks. I.

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Authors: Yi He, Nutdechatorn Puangngernmak, Suramate Chalermwisutkul

Abstract:

Microwave heating process has been developed about sixty years while measurement system has also progressed. Because of irradiation of high frequency of microwave, researchers have been utilized many costly technical instrument measuring parameters to evaluate the performance of microwave heating system. Therefore, this paper is intended to present an easier and feasible efficiency measurement method. It can help inspecting efficiency of microwave heating system with good accuracy, while the method can also give reference to optimizing procedure for microwave heating system for various load material

Keywords: measurement, microwave heating system, systemic power efficiency

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