Search results for: Load forecast

Authors: Maryam Jamela Ismail, Rosdiazli Ibrahim, Idris Ismail

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In the oil and gas industry, energy prediction can help the distributor and customer to forecast the outgoing and incoming gas through the pipeline. It will also help to eliminate any uncertainties in gas metering for billing purposes. The objective of this paper is to develop Neural Network Model for energy consumption and analyze the performance model. This paper provides a comprehensive review on published research on the energy consumption prediction which focuses on structures and the parameters used in developing Neural Network models. This paper is then focused on the parameter selection of the neural network prediction model development for energy consumption and analysis on the result. The most reliable model that gives the most accurate result is proposed for the prediction. The result shows that the proposed neural network energy prediction model is able to demonstrate an adequate performance with least Root Mean Square Error.

Keywords: Energy Prediction, Multilayer Feedforward, Levenberg-Marquardt, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

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Authors: M. A. Karim

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In countries with hot climates, air-conditioning forms a large proportion of annual peak electrical demand, requiring expansion of power plants to meet the peak demand, which goes unused most of the time. Use of well-designed cool storage can offset the peak demand to a large extent. In this study, an air conditioning system with naturally stratified storage tank was designed, constructed and tested. A new type of diffuser was designed and used in this study. Factors that influence the performance of chilled water storage tanks were investigated. The results indicated that stratified storage tank consistently stratified well without any physical barrier. Investigation also showed that storage efficiency decreased with increasing flow rate due to increased mixing of warm and chilled water. Diffuser design and layout primarily affected the mixing near the inlet diffuser and the extent of this mixing had primary influence on the shape of the thermocline. The heat conduction through tank walls and through the thermocline caused widening of mixed volume. Thermal efficiency of stratified storage tanks was as high as 90 percent, which indicates that stratified tanks can effectively be used as a load management technique.

Keywords: Cool Thermal Storage, Diffuser, Natural Stratification, Efficiency Improvement, Load management.

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Authors: Samir J. Deshmukh, Lalit B. Bhuyar, Shashank B. Thakre

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Partial combustion of biomass in the gasifier generates producer gas that can be used for heating purposes and as supplementary or sole fuel in internal combustion engines. In this study, the virgin biomass obtained from hingan shell is used as the feedstock for gasifier to generate producer gas. The gasifier-engine system is operated on diesel and on esters of vegetable oil of hingan in liquid fuel mode operation and then on liquid fuel and producer gas combination in dual fuel mode operation. The performance and emission characteristics of the CI engine is analyzed by running the engine in liquid fuel mode operation and in dual fuel mode operation at different load conditions with respect to maximum diesel savings in the dual fuel mode operation. It was observed that specific energy consumption in the dual fuel mode of operation is found to be in the higher side at all load conditions. The brake thermal efficiency of the engine using diesel or hingan oil methyl ester (HOME) is higher than that of dual fuel mode operation. A diesel replacement in the tune of 60% in dual fuel mode is possible with the use of hingan shell producer gas. The emissions parameters such CO, HC, NOx, CO2 and smoke are higher in the case of dual fuel mode of operation as compared to that of liquid fuel mode.

Keywords: Esters, performance, producer gas, vegetable oil.

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Authors: Abass Braimah, Maha Hussein Abdallah

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The global ascendancy of terrorist attacks on building infrastructure with economic and heritage significance has increased awareness of the possibility of terrorism in Canada. Many structures in Canada that are at risk of terrorist attacks include government buildings, built many years ago of historic stone masonry construction. Although many researchers are investigating ways to retrofit masonry stone buildings to mitigate the effect of blast loadings, lack of knowledge on the dynamic behavior of historic stone masonry structures under blast loads makes it difficult to ascertain the effectiveness of the retrofitting techniques. This paper presents a review of open-source literature for the experimental and numerical stone masonry structures under blast loads. This review yielded very little information of the response of the historic stone masonry structures under blast loads. Thus, a comprehensive study is needed to understand the blast load effects on historic stone masonry buildings. The out-of-plane response of historic masonry structures to blast loads is investigated by using single-degree-of-freedom analysis. This approach presents equations that can be used effectively in the analysis of historic masonry walls to out-of-plane blast loading.

Keywords: Blast loads, historical buildings, masonry structure, single-degree-of-freedom analysis.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: Abdelrahman Ahmed Mohamed Osman

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Over the past few years, a number of efforts have been exerted to build parallel processing systems that utilize the idle power of LAN-s and PC-s available in many homes and corporations. The main advantage of these approaches is that they provide cheap parallel processing environments for those who cannot afford the expenses of supercomputers and parallel processing hardware. However, most of the solutions provided are not very flexible in the use of available resources and very difficult to install and setup. In this paper, a multi-level web-based parallel processing system (MWPS) is designed (appendix). MWPS is based on the idea of volunteer computing, very flexible, easy to setup and easy to use. MWPS allows three types of subscribers: simple volunteers (single computers), super volunteers (full networks) and end users. All of these entities are coordinated transparently through a secure web site. Volunteer nodes provide the required processing power needed by the system end users. There is no limit on the number of volunteer nodes, and accordingly the system can grow indefinitely. Both volunteer and system users must register and subscribe. Once, they subscribe, each entity is provided with the appropriate MWPS components. These components are very easy to install. Super volunteer nodes are provided with special components that make it possible to delegate some of the load to their inner nodes. These inner nodes may also delegate some of the load to some other lower level inner nodes .... and so on. It is the responsibility of the parent super nodes to coordinate the delegation process and deliver the results back to the user. MWPS uses a simple behavior-based scheduler that takes into consideration the current load and previous behavior of processing nodes. Nodes that fulfill their contracts within the expected time get a high degree of trust. Nodes that fail to satisfy their contract get a lower degree of trust. MWPS is based on the .NET framework and provides the minimal level of security expected in distributed processing environments. Users and processing nodes are fully authenticated. Communications and messages between nodes are very secure. The system has been implemented using C#. MWPS may be used by any group of people or companies to establish a parallel processing or grid environment.

Keywords: Volunteer computing, Parallel Processing, XMLWebServices, .NET Remoting, Tuplespace.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Tabatabaei, Mohammad Bagher Haddadi, Mojtaba Saeedimoghadam, Ali Vaseghi Ardekani

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Economic Dispatch (ED) is one of the most challenging problems of power system since it is difficult to determine the optimum generation scheduling to meet the particular load demand with the minimum fuel costs while all constraints are satisfied. The objective of the Economic Dispatch Problems (EDPs) of electric power generation is to schedule the committed generating units outputs so as to meet the required load demand at minimum operating cost while satisfying all units and system equality and inequality constraints. In this paper, an efficient and practical steady-state genetic algorithm (SSGAs) has been proposed for solving the economic dispatch problem. The objective is to minimize the total generation fuel cost and keep the power flows within the security limits. To achieve that, the present work is developed to determine the optimal location and size of capacitors in transmission power system where, the Participation Factor Algorithm and the Steady State Genetic Algorithm are proposed to select the best locations for the capacitors and determine the optimal size for them.

Keywords: Economic Dispatch, Lagrange, Capacitors Placement, Losses Reduction, Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

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In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: Cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm.

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Authors: S. A. Che Osmi, W. M. F. Wan Ishak, H. Kim, M. A. Azman, M. A. Ramli

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River is one of important water sources for many activities including industrial and domestic usage such as daily usage, transportation, power supply and recreational activities. However, increasing activities in a river has grown the sources of pollutant enters the water bodies, and degraded the water quality of the river. It becomes a challenge to develop an effective river management to ensure the water sources of the river are well managed and regulated. In Malaysia, several approaches for river management have been implemented such as Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) program for coordinating the management of resources in a natural environment based on river basin to ensure their sustainability lead by Department of Drainage and Irrigation (DID), Malaysia. Nowadays, Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) is one of the best approaches for river management in Malaysia. TMDL implementation is regulated and implemented in the United States. A study on the development of TMDL in Malacca River has been carried out by doing water quality monitoring, the development of water quality model by using Environmental Fluid Dynamic Codes (EFDC), and TMDL implementation plan. The implementation of TMDL will help the stakeholders and regulators to control and improve the water quality of the river. It is one of the good approaches for river management in Malaysia.

Keywords: EFDC, river management, TMDL, water quality modelling.

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Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

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Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: Mine Uslu Uysal

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This paper interested in the mechanical deformation behavior of shear deformable functionally graded ceramic-metal (FGM) plates. Theoretical formulations are based on power law theory when build up functional graded material. The mechanical properties of the plate are graded in the thickness direction according to a power-law Displacement and stress is obtained using finite element method (FEM). The load is supposed to be a uniform distribution over the plate surface (XY plane) and varied in the thickness direction only. An FGM’s gradation in material properties allows the designer to tailor material response to meet design criteria. An FGM made of ceramic and metal can provide the thermal protection and load carrying capability in one material thus eliminating the problem of thermo-mechanical deformation behavior. This thesis will explore analysis of FGM flat plates and shell panels, and their applications to r structural problems. FGMs are first characterized as flat plates under pressure in order to understand the effect variation of material properties has on structural response. In addition, results are compared to published results in order to show the accuracy of modeling FGMs using ABAQUS software.

Keywords: Functionally graded material, finite element method, thermal and structural loading.

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Authors: Fariba Shavakhi Zavareh, Hadi Fotoohabadi, Reza Sedaghati

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Due to the continuous increment of the load demand, identification of weaker buses, improvement of voltage profile and power losses in the context of the voltage stability problems has become one of the major concerns for the larger, complex, interconnected power systems. The objective of this paper is to review the impact of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) controller in Wind generators connected electrical network for maintaining voltage stability. Wind energy could be the growing renewable energy due to several advantages. The influence of wind generators on power quality is a significant issue; non uniform power production causes variations in system voltage and frequency. Therefore, wind farm requires high reactive power compensation; the advances in high power semiconducting devices have led to the development of FACTS. The FACTS devices such as for example SVC inject reactive power into the system which helps in maintaining a better voltage profile. The performance is evaluated on an IEEE 14 bus system, two wind generators are connected at low voltage buses to meet the increased load demand and SVC devices are integrated at the buses with wind generators to keep voltage stability. Power flows, nodal voltage magnitudes and angles of the power network are obtained by iterative solutions using MIPOWER.

Keywords: Voltage Profile, FACTS Device, SVC, Distributed Generation.

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Authors: Jae Chul Cha, Sandeep K. Gupta

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The demand for higher performance graphics continues to grow because of the incessant desire towards realism. And, rapid advances in fabrication technology have enabled us to build several processor cores on a single die. Hence, it is important to develop single chip parallel architectures for such data-intensive applications. In this paper, we propose an efficient PIM architectures tailored for computer graphics which requires a large number of memory accesses. We then address the two important tasks necessary for maximally exploiting the parallelism provided by the architecture, namely, partitioning and placement of graphic data, which affect respectively load balances and communication costs. Under the constraints of uniform partitioning, we develop approaches for optimal partitioning and placement, which significantly reduce search space. We also present heuristics for identifying near-optimal placement, since the search space for placement is impractically large despite our optimization. We then demonstrate the effectiveness of our partitioning and placement approaches via analysis of example scenes; simulation results show considerable search space reductions, and our heuristics for placement performs close to optimal – the average ratio of communication overheads between our heuristics and the optimal was 1.05. Our uniform partitioning showed average load-balance ratio of 1.47 for geometry processing and 1.44 for rasterization, which is reasonable.

Keywords: Data Partitioning and Placement, Graphics, PIM, Search Space Reduction.

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Authors: S. Ganesh

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Power distribution systems typically have tie and sectionalizing switches whose states determine the topological configuration of the network. The aim of network reconfiguration of the distribution network is to minimize the losses for a load arrangement at a particular time. Thus the objective function is to minimize the losses of the network by satisfying the distribution network constraints. The various constraints are radiality, voltage limits and the power balance condition. In this paper the status of the switches is obtained by using Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm. ABC is based on a particular intelligent behavior of honeybee swarms. ABC is developed based on inspecting the behaviors of real bees to find nectar and sharing the information of food sources to the bees in the hive. The proposed methodology has three stages. In stage one ABC is used to find the tie switches, in stage two the identified tie switches are checked for radiality constraint and if the radilaity constraint is satisfied then the procedure is proceeded to stage three otherwise the process is repeated. In stage three load flow analysis is performed. The process is repeated till the losses are minimized. The ABC is implemented to find the power flow path and the Forward Sweeper algorithm is used to calculate the power flow parameters. The proposed methodology is applied for a 33–bus single feeder distribution network using MATLAB.

Keywords: Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm, Distribution system, Loss reduction, Network reconfiguration.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

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Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: Swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, MIKE21, sediment.

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Authors: M. S. Manikandan, K. V. Nithish Kumar, M. Krishnamoorthi, V. Ganesh

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The Automobile Braking System has a crucial role for safety of the passenger and riding quality of the vehicle. The braking force mainly depends on normal reaction on the wheel and the co-efficient of friction between the tire and the road surface. Whenever a vehicle is loaded, the normal reaction on the rear wheel is increased. Thus the amount of braking force required to halt the vehicle with minimum stopping distance, is based on the pillion load on the vehicle. In this work, in order to vary the braking force in two wheelers, the mechanical leverage which operates the master cylinder is varied based on the pillion load. Thus the amount of braking force developed between ground and tire is varied. This optimum braking force on the disc brake helps in attaining the minimum vehicle stopping distance. In addition to that, it also helps in preventing sliding. Thus the system results in reducing the stopping distance of the two wheelers and providing a better braking efficiency than the conventional braking system.

Keywords: Braking force, Master cylinder, Mechanical leverage, Minimum stopping distance.

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Authors: Mohammad M. Khan, Gajendra Dixit

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Partially lubricated sliding wear behaviour of a zinc-based alloy reinforced with 10wt% SiC particles has been studied as a function of applied load and solid lubricant particle size and has been compared with that of matrix alloy and conventionally used grey cast iron. The wear tests were conducted at the sliding velocities of 2.1m/sec in various partial lubricated conditions using pin on disc machine as per ASTM G-99-05. Base oil (SAE 20W-40) or mixture of the base oil with 5wt% graphite of particle sizes (7-10 µm) and (100 µm) were used for creating lubricated conditions. The matrix alloy revealed primary dendrites of a and eutectoid a + h and Î phases in the Inter dendritic regions. Similar microstructure has been depicted by the composite with an additional presence of the dispersoid SiC particles. In the case of cast iron, flakes of graphite were observed in the matrix; the latter comprised of (majority of) pearlite and (limited quantity of) ferrite. Results show a large improvement in wear resistance of the zinc-based alloy after reinforcement with SiC particles. The cast iron shows intermediate response between the matrix alloy and composite. The solid lubrication improved the wear resistance and friction behaviour of both the reinforced and base alloy. Moreover, minimum wear rate is obtained in oil+ 5wt % graphite (7-10 µm) lubricated environment for the matrix alloy and composite while for cast iron addition of solid lubricant increases the wear rate and minimum wear rate is obtained in case of oil lubricated environment. The cast iron experienced higher frictional heating than the matrix alloy and composite in all the cases especially at higher load condition. As far as friction coefficient is concerned, a mixed trend of behaviour was noted. The wear rate and frictional heating increased with load while friction coefficient was affected in an opposite manner. Test duration influenced the frictional heating and friction coefficient of the samples in a mixed manner.

Keywords: Solid lubricant, sliding wear grey cast iron, zinc based metal matrix composites.

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Authors: A. M. Wahab, E. Rustighi

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Elastomeric dielectric material has recently become a new alternative for actuator technology. The characteristics of dielectric elastomers placed between two electrodes to withstand large strain when electrodes are charged has attracted the attention of many researcher to study this material for actuator technology. Thus, in the past few years Danfoss Ventures A/S has established their own dielectric electro-active polymer (DEAP), which was called PolyPower. The main objective of this work was to investigate the dynamic characteristics for vibration control of a PolyPower actuator folded in ‘pull’ configuration. A range of experiments was carried out on the folded actuator including passive (without electrical load) and active (with electrical load) testing. For both categories static and dynamic testing have been done to determine the behavior of folded DEAP actuator. Voltage-Strain experiments show that the DEAP folded actuator is a non-linear system. It is also shown that the voltage supplied has no effect on the natural frequency. Finally, varying AC voltage with different amplitude and frequency shows the parameters that influence the performance of DEAP folded actuator. As a result, the actuator performance dominated by the frequency dependence of the elastic response and was less influenced by dielectric properties.

Keywords: Dielectric Electro-active Polymer, Pull Actuator, Static, Dynamic, Electromechanical.

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Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

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Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.

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Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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Authors: Wenjuan Du, Jingtian Bi, Tong Wang, Haifeng Wang

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Grid connection of a large-scale wind farm affects power system small-signal angular stability in two aspects. Firstly, connection of the wind farm brings about the change of load flow and configuration of a power system. Secondly, the dynamic interaction is introduced by the wind farm with the synchronous generators (SGs) in the power system. This paper proposes a method to assess the two aspects of the effect of the wind farm on power system small-signal angular stability. The effect of the change of load flow/system configuration brought about by the wind farm can be examined separately by displacing wind farms with constant power sources, then the effect of the dynamic interaction of the wind farm with the SGs can be also computed individually. Thus, a clearer picture and better understanding on the power system small-signal angular stability as affected by grid connection of the large-scale wind farm are provided. In the paper, an example power system with grid connection of a wind farm is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: power system small-signal angular stability, power system low-frequency oscillations, electromechanical oscillation modes, wind farms, double fed induction generator (DFIG)

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Authors: Limouzade E., Joorabian M.

Abstract:

Most of the losses in a power system relate to the distribution sector which always has been considered. From the important factors which contribute to increase losses in the distribution system is the existence of radioactive flows. The most common way to compensate the radioactive power in the system is the power to use parallel capacitors. In addition to reducing the losses, the advantages of capacitor placement are the reduction of the losses in the release peak of network capacity and improving the voltage profile. The point which should be considered in capacitor placement is the optimal placement and specification of the amount of the capacitor in order to maximize the advantages of capacitor placement. In this paper, a new technique has been offered for the placement and the specification of the amount of the constant capacitors in the radius distribution network on the basis of Genetic Algorithm (GA). The existing optimal methods for capacitor placement are mostly including those which reduce the losses and voltage profile simultaneously. But the retaliation cost and load changes have not been considered as influential UN the target function .In this article, a holistic approach has been considered for the optimal response to this problem which includes all the parameters in the distribution network: The price of the phase voltage and load changes. So, a vast inquiry is required for all the possible responses. So, in this article, we use Genetic Algorithm (GA) as the most powerful method for optimal inquiry.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm (GA), capacitor placement, voltage profile, network losses, Simulating Annealing (SA), distribution network.

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Authors: Rouaz Idriss, Bourahla Nour-Eddine, Kahlouche Farah, Rafa Sid Ali

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The stability of structures made of light-gauge steel depends highly on the contribution of Shear Wall Panel (SWP) systems under horizontal forces due to wind or earthquake loads. Steel plate sheathing is often used with these panels made of cold formed steel (CFS) to improve its shear strength. In order to predict the shear strength resistance, two methods are presented in this paper. In the first method, the steel plate sheathing is modeled with plats strip taking into account only the tension and compression force due to the horizontal load, where both track and stud are modeled according to the geometrical and mechanical characteristics of the specimen used in the experiments. The theoretical background and empirical formulations of this method are presented in this paper. However, the second method is based on a micro modeling of the cold formed steel Shear Wall Panel “CFS-SWP” using Abaqus software. A nonlinear analysis was carried out with an in-plan monotonic load. Finally, the comparison between these two methods shows that the micro modeling with Abaqus gives better prediction of shear resistance of SWP than strips method. However, the latter is easier and less time consuming than the micro modeling method.

Keywords: Cold Formed Steel Shear Wall Panel, CFS-SWP, micro modeling, nonlinear analysis, strip method.

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Authors: Bruno Félix, André Vasconcelos, José Tribolet

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Nowadays increasingly the population makes use of Information Technology (IT). As such, in recent year the Portuguese government increased its focus on using the IT for improving people-s life and began to develop a set of measures to enable the modernization of the Public Administration, and so reducing the gap between Public Administration and citizens.Thus the Portuguese Government launched the Simplex Program. However these SIMPLEX eGov measures, which have been implemented over the years, present a serious challenge: how to forecast its impact on existing Information Systems Architecture (ISA). Thus, this research is focus in addressing the problem of automating the evaluation of the actual impact of implementation an eGovSimplification and Modernization measures in the Information Systems Architecture. To realize the evaluation we proposes a Framework, which is supported by some key concepts as: Quality Factors, ISA modeling, Multicriteria Approach, Polarity Profile and Quality Metrics

Keywords: Information System Architecture, Evaluation, eGov Simplification measure, Multicriteria Evaluation

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Pei-Shan Kao

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This paper discusses the reaction of investors in the Taiwan stock market to the most probable unknown earnings-related information and the most probable known earnings-related information. As compared with the previous literature regarding the effect of an official announcement of earnings forecast revision, this paper further analyzes investors’ cognitive bias toward the unknown and known earnings-related information, and the role of media during the investors' reactions to the foresaid information shocks. The empirical results show that both the unknown and known earnings-related information provides useful information content for a stock market. In addition, cognitive bias and disposition effect are the behavioral pitfalls that commonly occur in the process of the investors' reactions to the earnings-related information. Finally, media coverage has a remarkable influence upon the investors' trading decisions.

Keywords: Cognitive bias, role of media, disposition effect, earnings-related information, behavioral pitfall.

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Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Yongho Chung, Sang C. Park

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Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: Performance Forecasting, Simulation, Virtual Manned Assembly Line.

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, Linear mixed model, Multivariate conditional autoregressive model, Spatial time series.

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Authors: Chong Zhang, Mu-Xuan Tao

Abstract:

In several earthquakes, numerous reinforced concrete (RC) frames subjected to seismic excitation demonstrated a collapse pattern characterized by column hinges, though designed according to the Strong-Column-Weak-Beam (S-C-W-B) criteria. The effect of biaxial seismic excitation on the disparity between design and actual performance is carefully investigated in this article. First, a modified load contour method is proposed to derive a closed-form equation of biaxial bending moment strength, which is verified by numerical and experimental tests. Afterwards, a group of time history analyses of a simple frame modeled by fiber beam-column elements subjected to biaxial seismic excitation are conducted to verify that the current S-C-W-B criteria are not adequate to prevent the occurrence of column hinges. A biaxial over-strength factor is developed based on the proposed equation, and the reinforcement of columns is appropriately amplified with this factor to prevent the occurrence of column hinges under biaxial excitation, which is proved to be effective by another group of time history analyses.

Keywords: Biaxial bending moment strength, biaxial seismic excitation, fiber beam-column model, load contour method, strong-column-weak-beam.

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Authors: Saeedeh Bakhtiari, Johannes Depessemier, Stijn Hertelé, Wim De Waele

Abstract:

High cycle fatigue comprising up to 10⁷ load cycles has been the subject of many studies, and the behavior of many materials was recorded adequately in this regime. However, many applications involve larger numbers of load cycles during the lifetime of machine components. In this ultra-high cycle regime, other failure mechanisms play, and the concept of a fatigue endurance limit (assumed for materials such as steel) is often an oversimplification of reality. When machine component design demands a high geometrical complexity, cast iron grades become interesting candidate materials. Grey cast iron is known for its low cost, high compressive strength, and good damping properties. However, the ultra-high cycle fatigue behavior of cast iron is poorly documented. The current work focuses on the ultra-high cycle fatigue behavior of EN-GJL-250 (GG25) grey cast iron by developing an ultrasonic (20 kHz) fatigue testing system. Moreover, the testing machine is instrumented to measure the temperature and the displacement of  the specimen, and to control the temperature. The high resonance frequency allowed to assess the  behavior of the cast iron of interest within a matter of days for ultra-high numbers of cycles, and repeat the tests to quantify the natural scatter in fatigue resistance.

Keywords: GG25, cast iron, ultra-high cycle fatigue, ultrasonic test.

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

Abstract:

Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. It is difficult to find analytical solution of these non-linear equations. Hence, in this paper verification of the finite element model has been carried out against available numerical predictions and field data. The results of the model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29km at both sites (15km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400km downstream in the Indus River from Sukkur barrage of Sindh, Pakistan, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed the daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for flood warnings in advance.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, Flood Forecasting, HEC-RAS, Indus river.

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