Search results for: Error index (J)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2247

Search results for: Error index (J)

1617 Ramification of Oil Prices on Renewable Energy Deployment

Authors: Osamah A. Alsayegh

Abstract:

This paper contributes to the literature by updating the analysis of the impact of the recent oil prices fall on the renewable energy (RE) industry and deployment. The research analysis uses the Renewable Energy Industrial Index (RENIXX), which tracks the world’s 30 largest publicly traded companies and oil prices daily data from January 2003 to March 2016. RENIXX represents RE industries developing solar, wind, geothermal, bioenergy, hydropower and fuel cells technologies. This paper tests the hypothesis that claims high oil prices encourage the substitution of alternate energy sources for conventional energy sources. Furthermore, it discusses RENIXX performance behavior with respect to the governments’ policies factor that investors should take into account. Moreover, the paper proposes a theoretical model that relates RE industry progress with oil prices and policies through the fuzzy logic system.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, investment, policy, stock exchange index.

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1616 Total and Partial Factor Productivity Analysis of Irrigated Wheat in Iran by Separate of Exploitation Scales

Authors: Hassan Masoumi, Rashed Alavi

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the strategic crops in Iran, on which the household food basket is highly dependent. Although this crop is cultivated and produced in almost all provinces of the country, its production efficiency is lower than the global and regional averages due to the lack of optimal use of allocated resources. In this research, which was carried out with a documentary and library method, first, the total and partial productivity indices of irrigated wheat production were calculated in large, medium and small exploitation scales in different provinces of the country, and then the provinces were clustered in terms of these indices. The results showed that the total productivity of production factors had a direct correlation with the scale of exploitation, so that with the increase in the size of exploitations, the total productivity index increased. On the scale of small exploitations, North Khorasan, Zanjan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, on a medium scale, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province and on the scale of large exploitations, Zanjan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces, Kohkiloyeh and Boyer Ahmad and North Khorasan, with better use of production resources compared to other provinces, were placed in the best cluster in terms of total productivity index. The high total productivity index in Zanjan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province is related to the higher productivity of factors such as mechanization and land in these provinces. Finally, the methods of using these factors in productive provinces, along with technical and specialized regional guidelines, can facilitate the improvement of productivity in less productive provinces.

Keywords: Clustering, Irrigated wheat, Iran, total productivity.

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1615 Optimal Placement of DG in Distribution System to Mitigate Power Quality Disturbances

Authors: G.V.K Murthy, S. Sivanagaraju, S. Satyanarayana, B. Hanumantha Rao

Abstract:

Distributed Generation (DG) systems are considered an integral part in future distribution system planning. Appropriate size and location of distributed generation plays a significant role in minimizing power losses in distribution systems. Among the benefits of distributed generation is the reduction in active power losses, which can improve the system performance, reliability and power quality. In this paper, Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal DG-unit size and location by loss sensitivity index in order to minimize the real power loss, total harmonic distortion (THD) and voltage sag index improvement. Simulation study is conducted on 69-bus radial test system to verify the efficacy of the proposed method.

Keywords: Distributed generation, artificial bee colony method, loss reduction, radial distribution network.

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1614 New Echocardiographic Morphofunctional Diastolic Index (MFDI) in Differentiation of Normal Left Ventricular Filling from Pseudonormal and Restrictive

Authors: N. Nelasov, D. Safonov, M. Babaev, E. Mirzojan, O. Eroshenko, M. Morgunov, A. Erofeeva

Abstract:

We have shown previously that reflected high intensity motion signals (RIMS) can be used for detection of left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction (DD). It is also well known, that left atrial (LA) dimension can be used as a marker of DD. In this study we decided to analyze the diagnostic role of new echocardiographic morphofunctional diastolic index (MFDI) in differentiation of normal filling of LV from pseudonormal and restrictive. MFDI includes LA dimension and velocity of early diastolic component ea of RIMS (MFDI = LA/ea).  

343 healthy subjects and patients with various cardiac pathology underwent dopplerechocardiographic exam. According to the criteria of "Don" classification scheme 155 subjects had signs of normal LV filling (N) and 55 - of pseudonormal and restrictive filling (PN + R). LA dimension was performed in standard manner. RIMS were registered by conventional pulsed wave Doppler from apical 4-chamber view, when the sample volume was positioned between the tips of mitral leaflets. The velocity of early diastolic component of RIMS was measured. After calculation of MFDI mean values of this index in two groups (N and PN + R) were compared. The cutoff value of MFDI for differentiation of patients with N and PN + R was determined.

Mean value of MFDI in subjects with normal filling was 1.38+0.33 and in patients with pseudonormal and restrictive filling 2.43+0.43; p<0.0001. The cutoff value of MFDI > 2.0 separated subjects with normal LV filling from subjects with pseudonormal and restrictive filling with sensitivity 89.1% and specificity 97.4%.

Keywords: Dopplerechocardiography, diastolic dysfunction, left atrium, reflected high intensity motion signals.

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1613 Impact of Government Spending on Private Consumption and on the Economy: Case of Thailand

Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak

Abstract:

The recent global financial problem urges government to play role in stimulating the economy due to the fact that private sector has little ability to purchase during the recession. A concerned question is whether the increased government spending crowds out private consumption and whether it helps stimulate the economy. If the government spending policy is effective; the private consumption is expected to increase and can compensate the recent extra government expense. In this study, the government spending is categorized into government consumption spending and government capital spending. The study firstly examines consumer consumption along the line with the demand function in microeconomic theory. Three categories of private consumption are used in the study. Those are food consumption, non food consumption, and services consumption. The dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System of the three categories of the private consumption is estimated using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The estimated model indicates the substituting effects (negative impacts) of the government consumption spending on budget shares of private non food consumption and of the government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption, respectively. Nevertheless the result does not necessarily indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the non food and the food consumption means fallen total private consumption. Microeconomic consumer demand analysis clearly indicates changes in component structure of aggregate expenditure in the economy as a result of the government spending policy. The macroeconomic concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (the government consumption spending and the government capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate for their relationship using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The macroeconomic study found no effect of the government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP. Therefore no crowding out effect of the government spending is found on the private consumption but it is ineffective and even inefficient expenditure as found reducing growth of the GDP in the context of Thailand.

Keywords: government consumption spending, governmentcapital spending, private consumption on food, non food, andservices, Vector Error Correction Mechanism, Almost Ideal DemandSystem, substitution effect, complementary effect, consumer demand, aggregate demand

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1612 Assessment of Vulnerability Curves Using Vulnerability Index Method for Reinforced Concrete Structures

Authors: F. I. Belheouane, M. Bensaibi

Abstract:

The seismic feedback experiences in Algeria have shown higher percentage of damages for non-code conforming reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. Furthermore, the vulnerability of these buildings was further aggravated due to presence of many factors (e.g. weak the seismic capacity of these buildings, shorts columns, Pounding effect, etc.). Consequently Seismic risk assessments were carried out on populations of buildings to identify the buildings most likely to undergo losses during an earthquake. The results of such studies are important in the mitigation of losses under future seismic events as they allow strengthening intervention and disaster management plans to be drawn up. Within this paper, the state of the existing structures is assessed using "the vulnerability index" method. This method allows the classification of RC constructions taking into account both, structural and non structural parameters, considered to be ones of the main parameters governing the vulnerability of the structure. Based on seismic feedback from past earthquakes DPM (damage probability matrices) were developed too.

Keywords: Seismic vulnerability, Reinforced concrete buildings, Earthquake, DPM, Algeria.

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1611 The Effect of Saturates on Rheological and Aging Characteristics of Bitumen

Authors: Madi Hermadi, Kemas A. Zamhari, Ahmad T. bin A. Karim, Mohd. E. Abdullah, Ling Lloyd L.

Abstract:

According to Rostler method (ASTM D 2006), saturates content of bitumen is determined based on its reactivity to sulphuric acid. While Corbett method (ASTM D 4124) based on its polarity level. This paper presents results from the study on the effect of saturates content determined by two different fractionation methods on the rheological and aging characteristics of bitumen. The result indicated that the increment of saturates content tended to reduce all the rheological characteristics concerned. Bitumen became less elastic, less viscous, and less resistant to plastic deformation, but became more resistant to fatigue cracking. After short and long term aging process, the treatment effect coefficients of saturates decreased, saturates became thicker due to aging process. This study concludes that saturates is not really stable or reactive in aging process. Therefore, the reactivity of saturates should be considered in bitumen aging index

Keywords: Aging index, bitumen, saturates, rheolgy.

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1610 Assessment of Drought Tolerance Maize Hybrids at Grain Growth Stage in Mediterranean Area

Authors: Ayman El Sabagh, Celaleddin Barutçular, Hirofumi Saneoka

Abstract:

Drought is one of the most serious problems posing a grave threat to cereals production including maize. Maize improvement in drought-stress tolerance poses a great challenge as the global need for food and bio-energy increases. Thus, the current study was planned to explore the variations and determine the performance of target traits of maize hybrids at grain growth stage under drought conditions during 2014 under Adana, Mediterranean climate conditions, Turkey. Maize hybrids (Sancia, Indaco, 71May69, Aaccel, Calgary, 70May82, 72May80) were evaluated under (irrigated and water stress). Results revealed that, grain yield and yield traits had a negative effects because of water stress conditions compared with the normal irrigation. As well as, based on the result under normal irrigation, the maximum biological yield and harvest index were recorded. According to the differences among hybrids were found that, significant differences were observed among hybrids with respect to yield and yield traits under current research. Based on the results, grain weight had more effect on grain yield than grain number during grain filling growth stage under water stress conditions. In this concern, according to low drought susceptibility index (less grain yield losses), the hybrid (Indaco) was more stable in grain number and grain weight. Consequently, it may be concluded that this hybrid would be recommended for use in the future breeding programs for production of drought tolerant hybrids.

Keywords: Drought susceptibility index, grain filling, grain yield, maize, water stress.

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1609 Capacity of Overloaded DS-CDMA System on Rayleigh Fading Channel with Timing Error

Authors: Preetam Kumar

Abstract:

The number of users supported in a DS-CDMA cellular system is typically less than spreading factor (N), and the system is said to be underloaded. Overloading is a technique to accommodate more number of users than the spreading factor N. In O/O overloading scheme, the first set is assigned to the N synchronous users and the second set is assigned to the additional synchronous users. An iterative multistage soft decision interference cancellation (SDIC) receiver is used to remove high level of interference between the two sets. Performance is evaluated in terms of the maximum number acceptable users so that the system performance is degraded slightly compared to the single user performance at a specified BER. In this paper, the capacity of CDMA based O/O overloading scheme is evaluated with SDIC receiver. It is observed that O/O scheme using orthogonal Gold codes provides 25% channel overloading (N=64) for synchronous DS-CDMA system on an AWGN channel in the uplink at a BER of 1e-5.For a Rayleigh faded channel, the critical capacity is 40% at a BER of 5e-5 assuming synchronous users. But in practical systems, perfect chip timing is very difficult to maintain in the uplink.. We have shown that the overloading performance reduces to 11% for a timing synchronization error of 0.02Tc for a BER of 1e-5.

Keywords: DS-CDMA, Interference Cancellation, MultiuserDetection, Orthogonal codes, Overloading.

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1608 Predicting the Impact of the Defect on the Overall Environment in Function Based Systems

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Urvashi Malhotra, E. Ardil

Abstract:

There is lot of work done in prediction of the fault proneness of the software systems. But, it is the severity of the faults that is more important than number of faults existing in the developed system as the major faults matters most for a developer and those major faults needs immediate attention. In this paper, we tried to predict the level of impact of the existing faults in software systems. Neuro-Fuzzy based predictor models is applied NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in C programming language. As Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. So, CFS is used for the selecting the best metrics that have highly correlated with level of severity of faults. The results are compared with the prediction results of Logistic Models (LMT) that was earlier quoted as the best technique in [17]. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provide a relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the modeling of the level of impact of faults in function based systems.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Faults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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1607 Optimal Placement and Sizing of SVC for Load Margin Improvement Using BF Algorithm

Authors: Santi Behera, M. Tripathy, J. K. Satapathy

Abstract:

Power systems are operating under stressed condition due to continuous increase in demand of load. This can lead to voltage instability problem when face additional load increase or contingency. In order to avoid voltage instability suitable size of reactive power compensation at optimal location in the system is required which improves the load margin. This work aims at obtaining optimal size as well as location of compensation in the 39- bus New England system with the help of Bacteria Foraging and Genetic algorithms. To reduce the computational time the work identifies weak candidate buses in the system, and then picks only two of them to take part in the optimization. The objective function is based on a recently proposed voltage stability index which takes into account the weighted average sensitivity index is a simpler and faster approach than the conventional CPF algorithm. BFOA has been found to give better results compared to GA.

Keywords: BFOA, GA, SSVSL, WASI.

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1606 Effect of Non-Newtonian Behavior of Oil Phase on Oil-Water Stratified Flow in a Horizontal Channel

Authors: Satish Kumar Dewangan, Santosh Kumar Senapati

Abstract:

The present work focuses on the investigation of the effect of non-Newtonian behavior on the oil-water stratified flow in a horizontal channel using ANSYS Fluent. Coupled level set and volume of fluid (CLSVOF) has been used to capture the evolving interface assuming unsteady, coaxial flow with constant fluid properties. The diametric variation of oil volume fraction, mixture velocity, total pressure and pressure gradient has been studied. Non-Newtonian behavior of oil has been represented by the power law model in order to investigate the effect of flow behavior index. Stratified flow pattern tends to assume dispersed flow pattern with the change in the behavior of oil to non-Newtonian. The pressure gradient is found to be very much sensitive to the flow behavior index. The findings could be useful in designing the transportation pipe line in petroleum industries.

Keywords: Oil-water stratified flow, horizontal channel, CLSVOF, non–Newtonian behavior.

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1605 Refractive Index, Excess Molar Volume and Viscometric Study of Binary Liquid Mixture of Morpholine with Cumene at 298.15 K, 303.15 K, and 308.15 K

Authors: B. K. Gill, Himani Sharma, V. K. Rattan

Abstract:

Experimental data of refractive index, excess molar volume and viscosity of binary mixture of morpholine with cumene over the whole composition range at 298.15 K, 303.15 K, 308.15 K and normal atmospheric pressure have been measured. The experimental data were used to compute the density, deviation in molar refraction, deviation in viscosity and excess Gibbs free energy of activation as a function of composition. The experimental viscosity data have been correlated with empirical equations like Grunberg- Nissan, Herric correlation and three body McAllister’s equation. The excess thermodynamic properties were fitted to Redlich-Kister polynomial equation. The variation of these properties with composition and temperature of the binary mixtures are discussed in terms of intermolecular interactions.

Keywords: Cumene, excess Gibbs free energy, excess molar volume, morpholine.

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1604 Quick Spatial Assessment of Drought Information Derived from MODIS Imagery Using Amplitude Analysis

Authors: Meng-Lung Lin, Qiubing Wang, Fujun Sun, Tzu-How Chu, Yi-Shiang Shiu

Abstract:

The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) derived from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) have been widely used to identify spatial information of drought condition. The relationship between NDVI and NDMI has been analyzed using Pearson correlation analysis and showed strong positive relationship. The drought indices have detected drought conditions and identified spatial extents of drought. A comparison between normal year and drought year demonstrates that the amplitude analysis considered both vegetation and moisture condition is an effective method to identify drought condition. We proposed the amplitude analysis is useful for quick spatial assessment of drought information at a regional scale.

Keywords: NDVI, NDMI, Drought, remote sensing, spatialassessment.

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1603 Genome-Wide Analysis of BES1/BZR1 Gene Family in Five Plant Species

Authors: Jafar Ahmadi, Zhohreh Asiaban, Sedigheh Fabriki Ourang

Abstract:

Brassinosteroids (BRs) regulate cell elongation, vascular differentiation, senescence, and stress responses. BRs signal through the BES1/BZR1 family of transcription factors, which regulate hundreds of target genes involved in this pathway. In this research a comprehensive genome-wide analysis was carried out in BES1/BZR1 gene family in Arabidopsis thaliana, Cucumis sativus, Vitis vinifera, Glycin max and Brachypodium distachyon. Specifications of the desired sequences, dot plot and hydropathy plot were analyzed in the protein and genome sequences of five plant species. The maximum amino acid length was attributed to protein sequence Brdic3g with 374aa and the minimum amino acid length was attributed to protein sequence Gm7g with 163aa. The maximum Instability index was attributed to protein sequence AT1G19350 equal with 79.99 and the minimum Instability index was attributed to protein sequence Gm5g equal with 33.22. Aliphatic index of these protein sequences ranged from 47.82 to 78.79 in Arabidopsis thaliana, 49.91 to 57.50 in Vitis vinifera, 55.09 to 82.43 in Glycin max, 54.09 to 54.28 in Brachypodium distachyon 55.36 to 56.83 in Cucumis sativus. Overall, data obtained from our investigation contributes a better understanding of the complexity of the BES1/BZR1 gene family and provides the first step towards directing future experimental designs to perform systematic analysis of the functions of the BES1/BZR1 gene family.

Keywords: BES1/BZR1, Brassinosteroids, Phylogenetic analysis, Transcription factor.

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1602 High Speed Bitwise Search for Digital Forensic System

Authors: Hyungkeun Jee, Jooyoung Lee, Dowon Hong

Abstract:

The most common forensic activity is searching a hard disk for string of data. Nowadays, investigators and analysts are increasingly experiencing large, even terabyte sized data sets when conducting digital investigations. Therefore consecutive searching can take weeks to complete successfully. There are two primary search methods: index-based search and bitwise search. Index-based searching is very fast after the initial indexing but initial indexing takes a long time. In this paper, we discuss a high speed bitwise search model for large-scale digital forensic investigations. We used pattern matching board, which is generally used for network security, to search for string and complex regular expressions. Our results indicate that in many cases, the use of pattern matching board can substantially increase the performance of digital forensic search tools.

Keywords: Digital forensics, search, regular expression.

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1601 An Approach towards Designing an Energy Efficient Building through Embodied Energy Assessment: A Case of Apartment Building in Composite Climate

Authors: Ambalika Ekka

Abstract:

In today’s world, the growing demand for urban built forms has resulted in the production and consumption of building materials i.e. embodied energy in building construction, leading to pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, new buildings will offer a unique opportunity to implement more energy efficient building without compromising on building performance of the building. Embodied energy of building materials forms major contribution to embodied energy in buildings. The paper results in an approach towards designing an energy efficient apartment building through embodied energy assessment. This paper discusses the trend of residential development in Rourkela, which includes three case studies of the contemporary houses, followed by architectural elements, number of storeys, predominant material use and plot sizes using primary data. It results in identification of predominant material used and other characteristics in urban area. Further, the embodied energy coefficients of various dominant building materials and alternative materials manufactured in Indian Industry is taken in consideration from secondary source i.e. literature study. The paper analyses the embodied energy by estimating materials and operational energy of proposed building followed by altering the specifications of the materials based on the building components i.e. walls, flooring, windows, insulation and roof through res build India software and comparison of different options is assessed with consideration of sustainable parameters. This paper results that autoclaved aerated concrete block only reaches the energy performance Index benchmark i.e. 69.35 kWh/m2 yr i.e. by saving 4% of operational energy and as embodied energy has no particular index, out of all materials it has the highest EE 23206202.43  MJ.

Keywords: Energy efficient, embodied energy, energy performance index, building materials.

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1600 Analysis of Message Authentication in Turbo Coded Halftoned Images using Exit Charts

Authors: Andhe Dharani, P. S. Satyanarayana, Andhe Pallavi

Abstract:

Considering payload, reliability, security and operational lifetime as major constraints in transmission of images we put forward in this paper a steganographic technique implemented at the physical layer. We suggest transmission of Halftoned images (payload constraint) in wireless sensor networks to reduce the amount of transmitted data. For low power and interference limited applications Turbo codes provide suitable reliability. Ensuring security is one of the highest priorities in many sensor networks. The Turbo Code structure apart from providing forward error correction can be utilized to provide for encryption. We first consider the Halftoned image and then the method of embedding a block of data (called secret) in this Halftoned image during the turbo encoding process is presented. The small modifications required at the turbo decoder end to extract the embedded data are presented next. The implementation complexity and the degradation of the BER (bit error rate) in the Turbo based stego system are analyzed. Using some of the entropy based crypt analytic techniques we show that the strength of our Turbo based stego system approaches that found in the OTPs (one time pad).

Keywords: Halftoning, Turbo codes, security, operationallifetime, Turbo based stego system.

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1599 Neural Network Optimal Power Flow(NN-OPF) based on IPSO with Developed Load Cluster Method

Authors: Mat Syai'in, Adi Soeprijanto

Abstract:

An Optimal Power Flow based on Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (OPF-IPSO) with Generator Capability Curve Constraint is used by NN-OPF as a reference to get pattern of generator scheduling. There are three stages in Designing NN-OPF. The first stage is design of OPF-IPSO with generator capability curve constraint. The second stage is clustering load to specific range and calculating its index. The third stage is training NN-OPF using constructive back propagation method. In training process total load and load index used as input, and pattern of generator scheduling used as output. Data used in this paper is power system of Java-Bali. Software used in this simulation is MATLAB.

Keywords: Optimal Power Flow, Generator Capability Curve, Improved Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network

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1598 Molding Properties of Cobalt-Chrome-Based Feedstocks Used in Low-Pressure Powder Injection Molding

Authors: Ehsan Gholami, Vincent Demers

Abstract:

Low-pressure powder injection molding is an emerging technology for cost-effectively producing complex shape metallic parts with the proper dimensional tolerances, either in high or in low production volumes. In this study, the molding properties of cobalt-chrome-based feedstocks were evaluated for use in a low-pressure powder injection molding process. The rheological properties of feedstock formulations were obtained by mixing metallic powder with a proprietary wax-based binder system. Rheological parameters such as reference viscosity, shear rate sensitivity index, and activation energy for viscous flow, were extracted from the viscosity profiles and introduced into the Weir model to calculate the moldability index. Feedstocks were experimentally injected into a spiral mold cavity to validate the injection performance calculated with the model.

Keywords: Binder, feedstock, moldability, powder injection molding, viscosity.

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1597 Evaluation of Neighbourhood Characteristics and Active Transport Mode Choice

Authors: Tayebeh Saghapour, Sara Moridpour, Russell George Thompson

Abstract:

One of the common aims of transport policy makers is to switch people’s travel to active transport. For this purpose, a variety of transport goals and investments should be programmed to increase the propensity towards active transport mode choice. This paper aims to investigate whether built environment features in neighbourhoods could enhance the odds of active transportation. The present study introduces an index measuring public transport accessibility (PTAI), and a walkability index along with socioeconomic variables to investigate mode choice behaviour. Using travel behaviour data, an ordered logit regression model is applied to examine the impacts of explanatory variables on walking trips. The findings indicated that high rates of active travel are consistently associated with higher levels of walking and public transport accessibility.

Keywords: Active transport, public transport accessibility, walkability, ordered logit model.

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1596 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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1595 A Finite Precision Block Floating Point Treatment to Direct Form, Cascaded and Parallel FIR Digital Filters

Authors: Abhijit Mitra

Abstract:

This paper proposes an efficient finite precision block floating point (BFP) treatment to the fixed coefficient finite impulse response (FIR) digital filter. The treatment includes effective implementation of all the three forms of the conventional FIR filters, namely, direct form, cascaded and par- allel, and a roundoff error analysis of them in the BFP format. An effective block formatting algorithm together with an adaptive scaling factor is pro- posed to make the realizations more simple from hardware view point. To this end, a generic relation between the tap weight vector length and the input block length is deduced. The implementation scheme also emphasises on a simple block exponent update technique to prevent overflow even during the block to block transition phase. The roundoff noise is also investigated along the analogous lines, taking into consideration these implementational issues. The simulation results show that the BFP roundoff errors depend on the sig- nal level almost in the same way as floating point roundoff noise, resulting in approximately constant signal to noise ratio over a relatively large dynamic range.

Keywords: Finite impulse response digital filters, Cascade structure, Parallel structure, Block floating point arithmetic, Roundoff error.

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1594 Software Maintenance Severity Prediction for Object Oriented Systems

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Roma Jaswal, Sandeep Khimta, Shailendra Singh

Abstract:

As the majority of faults are found in a few of its modules so there is a need to investigate the modules that are affected severely as compared to other modules and proper maintenance need to be done in time especially for the critical applications. As, Neural networks, which have been already applied in software engineering applications to build reliability growth models predict the gross change or reusability metrics. Neural networks are non-linear sophisticated modeling techniques that are able to model complex functions. Neural network techniques are used when exact nature of input and outputs is not known. A key feature is that they learn the relationship between input and output through training. In this present work, various Neural Network Based techniques are explored and comparative analysis is performed for the prediction of level of need of maintenance by predicting level severity of faults present in NASA-s public domain defect dataset. The comparison of different algorithms is made on the basis of Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and Accuracy Values. It is concluded that Generalized Regression Networks is the best algorithm for classification of the software components into different level of severity of impact of the faults. The algorithm can be used to develop model that can be used for identifying modules that are heavily affected by the faults.

Keywords: Neural Network, Software faults, Software Metric.

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1593 Assessing the Effect of the Position of the Cavities on the Inner Plate of the Steel Shear Wall under Time History Dynamic Analysis

Authors: Masoud Mahdavi, Mojtaba Farzaneh Moghadam

Abstract:

The seismic forces caused by the waves created in the depths of the earth during the earthquake hit the structure and cause the building to vibrate. Creating large seismic forces will cause low-strength sections in the structure to suffer extensive surface damage. The use of new steel shear walls in steel structures has caused the strength of the building and its main members (columns) to increase due to the reduction and depreciation of seismic forces during earthquakes. In the present study, an attempt was made to evaluate a type of steel shear wall that has regular holes in the inner sheet by modeling the finite element model with Abacus software. The shear wall of the steel plate, measuring 6000 × 3000 mm (one floor) and 3 mm thickness, was modeled with four different pores with a cross-sectional area. The shear wall was dynamically subjected to a time history of 5 seconds by three accelerators, El Centro, Imperial Valley and Kobe. The results showed that increasing the distance between the geometric center of the hole and the geometric center of the inner plate in the steel shear wall (increasing the RCS index) caused the total maximum acceleration to be transferred from the perimeter of the hole to horizontal and vertical beams. The results also show that there is no direct relationship between RCS index and total acceleration in steel shear wall and RCS index is separate from the peak ground acceleration value of earthquake.

Keywords: Hollow Steel plate shear wall, time history analysis, finite element method, Abaqus Software.

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1592 Monitoring and Fault-Recovery Capacity with Waveguide Grating-based Optical Switch over WDM/OCDMA-PON

Authors: Yao-Tang Chang, Chuen-Ching Wang, Shu-Han Hu

Abstract:

In order to implement flexibility as well as survivable capacities over passive optical network (PON), a new automatic random fault-recovery mechanism with array-waveguide-grating based (AWG-based) optical switch (OSW) is presented. Firstly, wavelength-division-multiplexing and optical code-division multiple-access (WDM/OCDMA) scheme are configured to meet the various geographical locations requirement between optical network unit (ONU) and optical line terminal (OLT). The AWG-base optical switch is designed and viewed as central star-mesh topology to prohibit/decrease the duplicated redundant elements such as fiber and transceiver as well. Hence, by simple monitoring and routing switch algorithm, random fault-recovery capacity is achieved over bi-directional (up/downstream) WDM/OCDMA scheme. When error of distribution fiber (DF) takes place or bit-error-rate (BER) is higher than 10-9 requirement, the primary/slave AWG-based OSW are adjusted and controlled dynamically to restore the affected ONU groups via the other working DFs immediately.

Keywords: Random fault recovery mechanism, Array-waveguide-grating based optical switch (AWG- based OSW), wavelength-division-multiplexing and optical code-divisionmultiple-access (WDM/ OCDMA)

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1591 Perceptions of Climate Change Risk to Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study of Patale Community Forestry User Group, Nepal

Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forestbased communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: Climate change, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities, risk perceptions.

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1590 Discrete Polyphase Matched Filtering-based Soft Timing Estimation for Mobile Wireless Systems

Authors: Thomas O. Olwal, Michael A. van Wyk, Barend J. van Wyk

Abstract:

In this paper we present a soft timing phase estimation (STPE) method for wireless mobile receivers operating in low signal to noise ratios (SNRs). Discrete Polyphase Matched (DPM) filters, a Log-maximum a posterior probability (MAP) and/or a Soft-output Viterbi algorithm (SOVA) are combined to derive a new timing recovery (TR) scheme. We apply this scheme to wireless cellular communication system model that comprises of a raised cosine filter (RCF), a bit-interleaved turbo-coded multi-level modulation (BITMM) scheme and the channel is assumed to be memory-less. Furthermore, no clock signals are transmitted to the receiver contrary to the classical data aided (DA) models. This new model ensures that both the bandwidth and power of the communication system is conserved. However, the computational complexity of ideal turbo synchronization is increased by 50%. Several simulation tests on bit error rate (BER) and block error rate (BLER) versus low SNR reveal that the proposed iterative soft timing recovery (ISTR) scheme outperforms the conventional schemes.

Keywords: discrete polyphase matched filters, maximum likelihood estimators, soft timing phase estimation, wireless mobile systems.

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1589 Reliability Assessment of Bangladesh Power System Using Recursive Algorithm

Authors: Nahid-Al-Masood, Jubaer Ahmed, Amina Hasan Abedin, S. R. Deeba, Faeza Hafiz, Mahmuda Begum

Abstract:

An electric utility-s main concern is to plan, design, operate and maintain its power supply to provide an acceptable level of reliability to its users. This clearly requires that standards of reliability be specified and used in all three sectors of the power system, i.e., generation, transmission and distribution. That is why reliability of a power system is always a major concern to power system planners. This paper presents the reliability analysis of Bangladesh Power System (BPS). Reliability index, loss of load probability (LOLP) of BPS is evaluated using recursive algorithm and considering no de-rated states of generators. BPS has sixty one generators and a total installed capacity of 5275 MW. The maximum demand of BPS is about 5000 MW. The relevant data of the generators and hourly load profiles are collected from the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) of Bangladesh and reliability index 'LOLP' is assessed for the period of last ten years.

Keywords: Recursive algorithm, LOLP, forced outage rate, cumulative probability.

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1588 In Cognitive Radio the Analysis of Bit-Error- Rate (BER) by using PSO Algorithm

Authors: Shrikrishan Yadav, Akhilesh Saini, Krishna Chandra Roy

Abstract:

The electromagnetic spectrum is a natural resource and hence well-organized usage of the limited natural resources is the necessities for better communication. The present static frequency allocation schemes cannot accommodate demands of the rapidly increasing number of higher data rate services. Therefore, dynamic usage of the spectrum must be distinguished from the static usage to increase the availability of frequency spectrum. Cognitive radio is not a single piece of apparatus but it is a technology that can incorporate components spread across a network. It offers great promise for improving system efficiency, spectrum utilization, more effective applications, reduction in interference and reduced complexity of usage for users. Cognitive radio is aware of its environmental, internal state, and location, and autonomously adjusts its operations to achieve designed objectives. It first senses its spectral environment over a wide frequency band, and then adapts the parameters to maximize spectrum efficiency with high performance. This paper only focuses on the analysis of Bit-Error-Rate in cognitive radio by using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm. It is theoretically as well as practically analyzed and interpreted in the sense of advantages and drawbacks and how BER affects the efficiency and performance of the communication system.

Keywords: BER, Cognitive Radio, Environmental Parameters, PSO, Radio spectrum, Transmission Parameters

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