Search results for: energy demand simulation
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 6488

Search results for: energy demand simulation

158 Life Cycle Assessment of Seawater Desalinization in Western Australia

Authors: Wahidul K. Biswas

Abstract:

Perth will run out of available sustainable natural water resources by 2015 if nothing is done to slow usage rates, according to a Western Australian study [1]. Alternative water technology options need to be considered for the long-term guaranteed supply of water for agricultural, commercial, domestic and industrial purposes. Seawater is an alternative source of water for human consumption, because seawater can be desalinated and supplied in large quantities to a very high quality. While seawater desalination is a promising option, the technology requires a large amount of energy which is typically generated from fossil fuels. The combustion of fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases (GHG) and, is implicated in climate change. In addition to environmental emissions from electricity generation for desalination, greenhouse gases are emitted in the production of chemicals and membranes for water treatment. Since Australia is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, it is important to quantify greenhouse gas emissions from desalinated water production. A life cycle assessment (LCA) has been carried out to determine the greenhouse gas emissions from the production of 1 gigalitre (GL) of water from the new plant. In this LCA analysis, a new desalination plant that will be installed in Bunbury, Western Australia, and known as Southern Seawater Desalinization Plant (SSDP), was taken as a case study. The system boundary of the LCA mainly consists of three stages: seawater extraction, treatment and delivery. The analysis found that the equivalent of 3,890 tonnes of CO2 could be emitted from the production of 1 GL of desalinated water. This LCA analysis has also identified that the reverse osmosis process would cause the most significant greenhouse emissions as a result of the electricity used if this is generated from fossil fuels

Keywords: Desalinization, Greenhouse gas emissions, life cycle assessment.

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157 Application of Voltage Stability Indices for Proper Placement of STATCOM under Load Increase Scenario

Authors: A. S. Telang, P. P. Bedekar

Abstract:

In today’s world, electrical energy has become an indispensable component of all aspects of modern human life. Reliability, security and stability are the key aspects of any power system. Failure to meet any of these three aspects results into a great impediment to modern life. Modern power systems are being subjected to heavily stressed conditions leading to voltage stability problems. If the voltage stability problems are not mitigated properly through proper voltage stability assessment methods, cascading events may occur which may lead to voltage collapse or blackout events. Modern FACTS devices like STATCOM are one of the measures to overcome the blackout problems. As these devices are very costly, they must be installed properly at suitable locations, mostly at weak bus. Line voltage stability indices such as FVSI, Lmn and LQP play important role for identification of a weak bus. This paper presents evaluation of these line stability indices for the assessment of reliable information about the closeness of the power system to voltage collapse. PSAT is a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox, of which CPF is an important feature which has been extensively used for the placement of STATCOM to assess the stability. Novelty of the present research work lies in that the active and reactive load has been changed simultaneously at all the load buses under consideration. MATLAB code has been developed for the same and tested successfully on various standard IEEE test systems. The results for standard IEEE14 bus test system, specifically, are presented in this paper.

Keywords: Voltage stability analysis, voltage collapse, PSAT, CPF, VSI, FVSI, Lmn, LQP.

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156 Enhancement Effect of Superparamagnetic Iron Oxide Nanoparticle-Based MRI Contrast Agent at Different Concentrations and Magnetic Field Strengths

Authors: Bimali Sanjeevani Weerakoon, Toshiaki Osuga, Takehisa Konishi

Abstract:

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Contrast Agents (MRI-CM) are significant in the clinical and biological imaging as they have the ability to alter the normal tissue contrast, thereby affecting the signal intensity to enhance the visibility and detectability of images. Superparamagnetic Iron Oxide (SPIO) nanoparticles, coated with dextran or carboxydextran are currently available for clinical MR imaging of the liver. Most SPIO contrast agents are T2 shortening agents and Resovist (Ferucarbotran) is one of a clinically tested, organ-specific, SPIO agent which has a low molecular carboxydextran coating. The enhancement effect of Resovist depends on its relaxivity which in turn depends on factors like magnetic field strength, concentrations, nanoparticle properties, pH and temperature. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the impact of field strength and different contrast concentrations on enhancement effects of Resovist. The study explored the MRI signal intensity of Resovist in the physiological range of plasma from T2-weighted spin echo sequence at three magnetic field strengths: 0.47 T (r1=15, r2=101), 1.5 T (r1=7.4, r2=95), and 3 T (r1=3.3, r2=160) and the range of contrast concentrations by a mathematical simulation. Relaxivities of r1 and r2 (L mmol-1 Sec-1) were obtained from a previous study and the selected concentrations were 0.05, 0.06, 0.07, 0.08, 0.09, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0 mmol/L. T2-weighted images were simulated using TR/TE ratio as 2000 ms /100 ms. According to the reference literature, with increasing magnetic field strengths, the r1 relaxivity tends to decrease while the r2 did not show any systematic relationship with the selected field strengths. In parallel, this study results revealed that the signal intensity of Resovist at lower concentrations tends to increase than the higher concentrations. The highest reported signal intensity was observed in the low field strength of 0.47 T. The maximum signal intensities for 0.47 T, 1.5 T and 3 T were found at the concentration levels of 0.05, 0.06 and 0.05 mmol/L, respectively. Furthermore, it was revealed that, the concentrations higher than the above, the signal intensity was decreased exponentially. An inverse relationship can be found between the field strength and T2 relaxation time, whereas, the field strength was increased, T2 relaxation time was decreased accordingly. However, resulted T2 relaxation time was not significantly different between 0.47 T and 1.5 T in this study. Moreover, a linear correlation of transverse relaxation rates (1/T2, s–1) with the concentrations of Resovist can be observed. According to these results, it can conclude that the concentration of SPIO nanoparticle contrast agents and the field strengths of MRI are two important parameters which can affect the signal intensity of T2-weighted SE sequence. Therefore, when MR imaging those two parameters should be considered prudently.

Keywords: Concentration, Resovist, Field strength, Relaxivity, Signal intensity.

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155 Predicting the Effect of Vibro Stone Column Installation on Performance of Reinforced Foundations

Authors: K. Al Ammari, B. G. Clarke

Abstract:

Soil improvement using vibro stone column techniques consists of two main parts: (1) the installed load bearing columns of well-compacted, coarse-grained material and (2) the improvements to the surrounding soil due to vibro compaction. Extensive research work has been carried out over the last 20 years to understand the improvement in the composite foundation performance due to the second part mentioned above. Nevertheless, few of these studies have tried to quantify some of the key design parameters, namely the changes in the stiffness and stress state of the treated soil, or have consider these parameters in the design and calculation process. Consequently, empirical and conservative design methods are still being used by ground improvement companies with a significant variety of results in engineering practice. Two-dimensional finite element study to develop an axisymmetric model of a single stone column reinforced foundation was performed using PLAXIS 2D AE to quantify the effect of the vibro installation of this column in soft saturated clay. Settlement and bearing performance were studied as an essential part of the design and calculation of the stone column foundation. Particular attention was paid to the large deformation in the soft clay around the installed column caused by the lateral expansion. So updated mesh advanced option was taken in the analysis. In this analysis, different degrees of stone column lateral expansions were simulated and numerically analyzed, and then the changes in the stress state, stiffness, settlement performance and bearing capacity were quantified. It was found that application of radial expansion will produce a horizontal stress in the soft clay mass that gradually decrease as the distance from the stone column axis increases. The excess pore pressure due to the undrained conditions starts to dissipate immediately after finishing the column installation, allowing the horizontal stress to relax. Changes in the coefficient of the lateral earth pressure K ٭, which is very important in representing the stress state, and the new stiffness distribution in the reinforced clay mass, were estimated. More encouraging results showed that increasing the expansion during column installation has a noticeable effect on improving the bearing capacity and reducing the settlement of reinforced ground, So, a design method should include this significant effect of the applied lateral displacement during the stone column instillation in simulation and numerical analysis design.

Keywords: Bearing capacity, design, Installation, numerical analysis, settlement, stone column.

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154 Effect of Exit Annular Area on the Flow Field Characteristics of an Unconfined Premixed Annular Swirl Burner

Authors: Vishnu Raj, Chockalingam Prathap

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to explore the impact of variation in the exit annular area on the local flow field features and the flame stability of an annular premixed swirl burner (unconfined) operated with a premixed n-butane air mixture at an equivalence ratio (Φ) = 1, 1 bar, and 300K. A swirl burner with an axial swirl generator having a swirl number of 1.5 was used. Three different burner heads were chosen to have the exit area increased from 100%, 160%, and 220% resulting in inner and outer diameters and cross-sectional areas as (1) 10 mm & 15 mm, 98 mm2 (2) 17.5 mm & 22.5 mm, 157 mm2 and (3) 25 mm & 30 mm, 216 mm2. The bulk velocity and Reynolds number based on the hydraulic diameter and unburned gas properties were kept constant at 12 m/s and 4000. (i) Planar Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) with TiO2 seeding particles and (ii) CH* chemiluminescence was used to measure the velocity fields and reaction zones of the swirl flames at 5 Hz, respectively. Velocity fields and the jet spreading rates measured at the isothermal and reactive conditions revealed that the presence of a flame significantly altered the flow field in the radial direction due to the gas expansion. Important observations from the flame measurements were: the height and maximum width of the recirculation bubbles normalized by the hydraulic diameter, and the jet spreading angles for the flames for the three exit area cases were: (a) 4.52, 1.95, 34◦, (b) 6.78, 2.37, 26◦, and (c) 8.73, 2.32, 22◦. The lean blowout (LBO) was also measured, and the respective equivalence ratios were: 0.80, 0.92, and 0.82. LBO was relatively narrow for the 157 mm2 case. For this case, PIV measurements showed that Turbulent Kinetic Energy and turbulent intensity were relatively high compared to the other two cases, resulting in higher stretch rates and narrower LBO.

Keywords: Chemiluminescence, jet spreading rate, lean blow out, swirl flow.

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153 The Potential Use of Nanofilters to Supply Potable Water in Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Watershed Basin

Authors: Sara Zamani, Mojtaba Fazeli, Abdollah Rashidi Mehrabadi

Abstract:

In a world worried about water resources with the shadow of drought and famine looming all around, the quality of water is as important as its quantity. The source of all concerns is the constant reduction of per capita quality water for different uses. Iran With an average annual precipitation of 250 mm compared to the 800 mm world average, Iran is considered a water scarce country and the disparity in the rainfall distribution, the limitations of renewable resources and the population concentration in the margins of desert and water scarce areas have intensified the problem. The shortage of per capita renewable freshwater and its poor quality in large areas of the country, which have saline, brackish or hard water resources, and the profusion of natural and artificial pollutant have caused the deterioration of water quality. Among methods of treatment and use of these waters one can refer to the application of membrane technologies, which have come into focus in recent years due to their great advantages. This process is quite efficient in eliminating multi-capacity ions; and due to the possibilities of production at different capacities, application as treatment process in points of use, and the need for less energy in comparison to Reverse Osmosis processes, it can revolutionize the water and wastewater sector in years to come. The article studied the different capacities of water resources in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea watershed basins, and processes the possibility of using nanofiltration process to treat brackish and non-conventional waters in these basins.

Keywords: Membrane processes, saline waters, brackish waters, hard waters, zoning water quality in the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea Watershed area, nanofiltration.

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152 Metal Inert Gas Welding-Based-Shaped Metal Deposition in Additive Layered Manufacturing: A Review

Authors: Adnan A. Ugla, Hassan J. Khaudair, Ahmed R. J. Almusawi

Abstract:

Shaped Metal Deposition (SMD) in additive layered manufacturing technique is a promising alternative to traditional manufacturing used for manufacturing large, expensive metal components with complex geometry in addition to producing free structures by building materials in a layer by layer technique. The present paper is a comprehensive review of the literature and the latest rapid manufacturing technologies of the SMD technique. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively review the most prominent facts that researchers have dealt with in the SMD techniques especially those associated with the cold wire feed. The intent of this study is to review the literature presented on metal deposition processes and their classifications, including SMD process using Wire + Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) which divides into wire + tungsten inert gas (TIG), metal inert gas (MIG), or plasma. This literary research presented covers extensive details on bead geometry, process parameters and heat input or arc energy resulting from the deposition process in both cases MIG and Tandem-MIG in SMD process. Furthermore, SMD may be done using Single Wire-MIG (SW-MIG) welding and SMD using Double Wire-MIG (DW-MIG) welding. The present review shows that the method of deposition of metals when using the DW-MIG process can be considered a distinctive and low-cost method to produce large metal components due to high deposition rates as well as reduce the input of high temperature generated during deposition and reduce the distortions. However, the accuracy and surface finish of the MIG-SMD are less as compared to electron and laser beam.

Keywords: Shaped metal deposition, additive manufacturing, double-wire feed, cold feed wire.

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151 An Initial Assessment of the Potential Contribution of ‘Community Empowerment’ to Mitigating the Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation, in Giam Siak Kecil-Bukit Batu Biosphere Reserve

Authors: A. Sunkar, Y. Santosa, S. B. Rushayati

Abstract:

Indonesia has experienced annual forest fires that have rapidly destroyed and degraded its forests. Fires in the peat swamp forests of Riau Province, have set the stage for problems to worsen, this being the ecosystem most prone to fires (which are also the most difficult, to extinguish). Despite various efforts to curb deforestation, and forest degradation processes, severe forest fires are still occurring. To find an effective solution, the basic causes of the problems must be identified. It is therefore critical to have an indepth understanding of the underlying causal factors that have contributed to deforestation and forest degradation as a whole, in order to attain reductions in their rates. An assessment of the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation was carried out, in order to design and implement measures that could slow these destructive processes. Research was conducted in Giam Siak Kecil–Bukit Batu Biosphere Reserve (GSKBB BR), in the Riau Province of Sumatera, Indonesia. A biosphere reserve was selected as the study site because such reserves aim to reconcile conservation with sustainable development. A biosphere reserve should promote a range of local human activities, together with development values that are in line spatially and economically with the area conservation values, through use of a zoning system. Moreover, GSKBB BR is an area with vast peatlands, and is experiencing forest fires annually. Various factors were analysed to assess the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in GSKBB BR; data were collected from focus group discussions with stakeholders, key informant interviews with key stakeholders, field observation and a literature review. Landsat satellite imagery was used to map forest-cover changes for various periods. Analysis of landsat images, taken during the period 2010-2014, revealed that within the non-protected area of core zone, there was a trend towards decreasing peat swamp forest areas, increasing land clearance, and increasing areas of community oilpalm and rubber plantations. Fire was used for land clearing and most of the forest fires occurred in the most populous area (the transition area). The study found a relationship between the deforested/ degraded areas, and certain distance variables, i.e. distance from roads, villages and the borders between the core area and the buffer zone. The further the distance from the core area of the reserve, the higher was the degree of deforestation and forest degradation. Research findings suggested that agricultural expansion may be the direct cause of deforestation and forest degradation in the reserve, whereas socio-economic factors were the underlying driver of forest cover changes; such factors consisting of a combination of sociocultural, infrastructural, technological, institutional (policy and governance), demographic (population pressure) and economic (market demand) considerations. These findings indicated that local factors/problems were the critical causes of deforestation and degradation in GSKBB BR. This research therefore concluded that reductions in deforestation and forest degradation in GSKBB BR could be achieved through ‘local actor’-tailored approaches such as community empowerment.

Keywords: Actor-led solution, community empowerment, drivers of deforestation and forest degradation, Giam Siak Kecil– Bukit Batu Biosphere Reserve.

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150 Low-Cost Monitoring System for Hydroponic Urban Vertical Farms

Authors: Francesco Ruscio, Paolo Paoletti, Jens Thomas, Paul Myers, Sebastiano Fichera

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of a low-cost monitoring system for a hydroponic urban vertical farm, enabling its automation and a quantitative assessment of the farm performance. Urban farming has seen increasing interest in the last decade thanks to the development of energy efficient and affordable LED lights; however, the optimal configuration of such systems (i.e. amount of nutrients, light-on time, ambient temperature etc.) is mostly based on the farmers’ experience and empirical guidelines. Moreover, even if simple, the maintenance of such systems is labor intensive as it requires water to be topped-up periodically, mixing of the nutrients etc. To unlock the full potential of urban farming, a quantitative understanding of the role that each variable plays in the growth of the plants is needed, together with a higher degree of automation. The low-cost monitoring system proposed in this paper is a step toward filling this knowledge and technological gap, as it enables collection of sensor data related to water and air temperature, water level, humidity, pressure, light intensity, pH and electric conductivity without requiring any human intervention. More sensors and actuators can also easily be added thanks to the modular design of the proposed platform. Data can be accessed remotely via a simple web interface. The proposed platform can be used both for quantitatively optimizing the setup of the farms and for automating some of the most labor-intensive maintenance activities. Moreover, such monitoring system can also potentially be used for high-level decision making, once enough data are collected.

Keywords: Automation, hydroponics, internet of things, monitoring system, urban farming.

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149 A Lactose-Free Yogurt Using Membrane Systems and Modified Milk Protein Concentrate: Production and Characterization

Authors: Shahram Naghizadeh Raeisi, Ali Alghooneh

Abstract:

Using membrane technology and modification of milk protein structural properties, a lactose free yogurt was developed. The functional, textural and structural properties of the sample were evaluated and compared with the commercial ones. Results showed that the modification of protein in high fat set yogurt resulted in 11.55%, 18%, 20.21% and 7.08% higher hardness, consistency, water holding capacity, and shininess values compared with the control one. Furthermore, these indices of modified low fat set yogurt were 21.40%, 25.41%, 28.15% & 10.58% higher than the control one, which could be related to the gel network microstructural properties in yogurt formulated with modified protein. In this way, in comparison with the control one, the index of linkage strength (A), the number of linkages (z), and time scale of linkages (λrel) of the high fat modified yogurt were 22.10%, 50.68%, 21.82% higher than the control one; whereas, the average linear distance between two adjacent crosslinks (ξ), was 16.77% lower than the control one. For low fat modified yogurt, A, z, λrel, and ξ indices were 34.30%, 61.70% and 42.60% higher and 19.20% lower than the control one, respectively. The shelf life of modified yogurt was extended to 10 weeks in the refrigerator, while, the control set yogurt had a 3 weeks shelf life. The acidity of high fat and low fat modified yogurts increased from 76 to 84 and 72 to 80 Dornic degrees during 10 weeks of storage, respectively, whereas for control high fat and low fat yogurts they increased from 82 to 122 and 77 to 112 Dornic degrees, respectively. This behavior could be due to the elimination of microorganism’s source of energy in modified yogurt. Furthermore, the calories of high fat and low fat lactose free yogurts were 25% and 40% lower than their control samples, respectively. Generally, results showed that the lactose free yogurt with modified protein, despite of 1% lower protein content than the control one, showed better functional properties, nutritional properties, network parameters, and shelf stability, which could be promising in the set yogurt industry.

Keywords: Lactose free, low calorie, network properties, protein modification.

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148 Influence of Compactive Efforts on Cement- Bagasse Ash Treatment of Expansive Black Cotton Soil

Authors: Moses, G, Osinubi, K. J.

Abstract:

A laboratory study on the influence of compactive effort on expansive black cotton specimens treated with up to 8% ordinary Portland cement (OPC) admixed with up to 8% bagasse ash (BA) by dry weight of soil and compacted using the energies of the standard Proctor (SP), West African Standard (WAS) or “intermediate” and modified Proctor (MP) were undertaken. The expansive black cotton soil was classified as A-7-6 (16) or CL using the American Association of Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and Unified Soil Classification System (USCS), respectively. The 7day unconfined compressive strength (UCS) values of the natural soil for SP, WAS and MP compactive efforts are 286, 401 and 515kN/m2 respectively, while peak values of 1019, 1328 and 1420kN/m2 recorded at 8% OPC/ 6% BA, 8% OPC/ 2% BA and 6% OPC/ 4% BA treatments, respectively were less than the UCS value of 1710kN/m2 conventionally used as criterion for adequate cement stabilization. The soaked California bearing ratio (CBR) values of the OPC/BA stabilized soil increased with higher energy level from 2, 4 and 10% for the natural soil to Peak values of 55, 18 and 8% were recorded at 8% OPC/4% BA 8% OPC/2% BA and 8% OPC/4% BA, treatments when SP, WAS and MP compactive effort were used, respectively. The durability of specimens was determined by immersion in water. Soils treatment at 8% OPC/ 4% BA blend gave a value of 50% resistance to loss in strength value which is acceptable because of the harsh test condition of 7 days soaking period specimens were subjected instead of the 4 days soaking period that specified a minimum resistance to loss in strength of 80%. Finally An optimal blend of is 8% OPC/ 4% BA is recommended for treatment of expansive black cotton soil for use as a sub-base material.

Keywords: Bagasse ash, California bearing ratio, Compaction, Durability, Ordinary Portland cement, Unconfined compressive strength.

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147 Petrology Investigation of Apatite Minerals in the Esfordi Mine, Yazd, Iran

Authors: Haleh Rezaei Zanjirabadi, Fatemeh Saberi, Bahman Rahimzadeh, Fariborz Masoudi, Mohammad Rahgosha

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In this study, apatite minerals from the iron-phosphate deposit of Yazd have been investigated within the microcontinent zone of Iran in the Zagros structural zone. The geological units in the Esfordi area belong to the pre-Cambrian to lower-Cambrian age, consisting of a succession of carbonate rocks (dolomite), shale, tuff, sandstone, and volcanic rocks. In addition to the mentioned sedimentary and volcanic rocks, the granitoid mass of Bahabad, which is the largest intrusive mass in the region, has intruded into the eastern part of this series and has caused its metamorphism and alteration. After collecting the available data, various samples of Esfordi’s apatite were prepared, and their mineralogy and crystallography were investigated using laboratory methods such as petrographic microscopy, Raman spectroscopy, EDS (Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy), and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). In non-destructive Raman spectroscopy, the molecular structure of apatite minerals was revealed in four distinct spectral ranges. Initially, the spectra of phosphate and aluminum bonds with O2HO, OH, were observed, followed by the identification of Cl, OH, Al, Na, Ca and hydroxyl units depending on the type of apatite mineral family. In SEM analysis, based on various shapes and different phases of apatites, their constituent major elements were identified through EDS, indicating that the samples from the Esfordi mining area exhibit a dense and coherent texture with smooth surfaces. Based on the elemental analysis results by EDS, the apatites in the Esfordi area are classified into the calcic apatite group.

Keywords: Petrology, apatite, Esfordi, EDS, SEM, Scanning Electron Microscopy, Raman spectroscopy.

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146 Development of a Smart System for Measuring Strain Levels of Natural Gas and Petroleum Pipelines on Earthquake Fault Lines in Türkiye

Authors: Ahmet Yetik, Seyit Ali Kara, Cevat Özarpa

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Load changes occur on natural gas and oil pipelines due to natural disasters. The displacement of the soil around the natural gas and oil pipes due to situations that may cause erosion, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods, is the source of this load change. The exposure of natural gas and oil pipes to variable loads causes deformation, cracks, and breaks in these pipes. Such cracks and breaks can cause significant damage to people and the environment, including the risk of explosions. Especially with the examinations made after natural disasters, it can be easily understood which of the pipes has sustained more damage in those quake-affected regions. It has been determined that earthquakes in Türkiye have caused permanent damage to pipelines. This project was initiated in response to the identification of cracks and gas leaks in the insulation gaskets placed in the pipelines, especially at the junction points. In this study, a SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) application has been developed to monitor load changes caused by natural disasters. The developed SCADA application monitors the changes in the x, y, and z axes of the stresses occurring in the pipes with the help of strain gauge sensors placed on the pipes. For the developed SCADA system, test setups in accordance with the standards were created during the fieldwork. The test setups created were integrated into the SCADA system, and the system was followed up. Thanks to the SCADA system developed with the field application, the load changes that will occur on the natural gas and oil pipes are instantly monitored, and the accumulations that may create a load on the pipes and their surroundings are immediately intervened, and new risks that may arise are prevented. It has contributed to energy supply security, asset management, pipeline holistic management, and overall sustainability in the industry.

Keywords: Earthquake, natural gas pipes, oil pipes, voltage measurement, landslide.

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145 An Analysis of Gamification in the Post-Secondary Classroom

Authors: F. Saccucci

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Gamification has now started to take root in the post-secondary classroom. Educators have learned much about gamification to date but there is still a great deal to learn. One definition of gamification is the ability to engage post-secondary students with games that are fun and correlate to class room curriculum. There is no shortage of literature illustrating the advantages of gamification in the class room. This study is an extension of similar thought as well as an extension of a previous study where in class testing proved with the used of paired T-test that gamification did significantly improve the students’ understanding of subject material. Gamification itself in the class room can range from high end computer simulated software to paper based games of which both have advantages and disadvantages. This analysis used a paper based game to highlight certain qualitative advantages of gamification. The paper based game in this analysis was inexpensive, required low preparation time for the faculty member and consumed approximately 20 minutes of class room time. Data for the study was collected through in class student feedback surveys and narrative from the faculty member moderating the game. Students were randomly selected into groups of four. Qualitative advantages identified in this analysis included: 1. Students had a chance to meet, connect and know other students. 2. Students enjoyed the gamification process given there was a sense of fun and competition. 3. The post assessment that followed the simulation game was not part of their grade calculation therefore it was an opportunity to participate in a low risk activity whereby students could subsequently self-assess their understanding of the subject material. 4. In the view of the student, content knowledge did increase after the gamification process. These qualitative advantages identified in this analysis contribute to the argument that there should be an attempt to use gamification in today’s post-secondary class room. The analysis also highlighted that eighty (80) percent of the respondents believe twenty minutes devoted to the gamification process was appropriate, however twenty (20) percentage of respondents believed that rather than scheduling a gamification process and its post quiz in the last week, a review for the final exam may have been more useful. An additional study to this hopes to determine if the scheduling of the gamification had any correlation to a percentage of the students not wanting to be engaged in the process. As well, the additional study hopes to determine at what incremental level of time invested in class room gamification produce no material incremental benefits to the student as well as determine if any correlation exist between respondents preferring not to have it at the end of the semester to students not believing the gamification process added to the increase of their curricular knowledge.

Keywords: Gamification, inexpensive, qualitative advantages, post-secondary.

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144 Corrosion Analysis and Interfacial Characterization of Al – Steel Metal Inert Gas Weld - Braze Dissimilar Joints by Micro Area X-Ray Diffraction Technique

Authors: S. S. Sravanthi, Swati Ghosh Acharyya

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Automotive light weighting is of major prominence in the current times due to its contribution in improved fuel economy and reduced environmental pollution. Various arc welding technologies are being employed in the production of automobile components with reduced weight. The present study is of practical importance since it involves preferential substitution of Zinc coated mild steel with a light weight alloy such as 6061 Aluminium by means of Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) – Brazing technique at different processing parameters. However, the fabricated joints have shown the generation of Al – Fe layer at the interfacial regions which was confirmed by the Scanning Electron Microscope and Energy Dispersion Spectroscopy. These Al-Fe compounds not only affect the mechanical strength, but also predominantly deteriorate the corrosion resistance of the joints. Hence, it is essential to understand the phases formed in this layer and their crystal structure. Micro area X - ray diffraction technique has been exclusively used for this study. Moreover, the crevice corrosion analysis at the joint interfaces was done by exposing the joints to 5 wt.% FeCl3 solution at regular time intervals as per ASTM G 48-03. The joints have shown a decreased crevice corrosion resistance with increased heat intensity. Inner surfaces of welds have shown severe oxide cracking and a remarkable weight loss when exposed to concentrated FeCl3. The weight loss was enhanced with decreased filler wire feed rate and increased heat intensity. 

Keywords: Automobiles, welding, corrosion, lap joints, Micro XRD.

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143 Optimization of a Bioremediation Strategy for an Urban Stream of Matanza-Riachuelo Basin

Authors: María D. Groppa, Andrea Trentini, Myriam Zawoznik, Roxana Bigi, Carlos Nadra, Patricia L. Marconi

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In the present work, a remediation bioprocess based on the use of a local isolate of the microalgae Chlorella vulgaris immobilized in alginate beads is proposed. This process was shown to be effective for the reduction of several chemical and microbial contaminants present in Cildáñez stream, a water course that is part of the Matanza-Riachuelo Basin (Buenos Aires, Argentina). The bioprocess, involving the culture of the microalga in autotrophic conditions in a stirred-tank bioreactor supplied with a marine propeller for 6 days, allowed a significant reduction of Escherichia coli and total coliform numbers (over 95%), as well as of ammoniacal nitrogen (96%), nitrates (86%), nitrites (98%), and total phosphorus (53%) contents. Pb content was also significantly diminished after the bioprocess (95%). Standardized cytotoxicity tests using Allium cepa seeds and Cildáñez water pre- and post-remediation were also performed. Germination rate and mitotic index of onion seeds imbibed in Cildáñez water subjected to the bioprocess was similar to that observed in seeds imbibed in distilled water and significantly superior to that registered when untreated Cildáñez water was used for imbibition. Our results demonstrate the potential of this simple and cost-effective technology to remove urban-water contaminants, offering as an additional advantage the possibility of an easy biomass recovery, which may become a source of alternative energy.

Keywords: Bioreactor, bioremediation, Chlorella vulgaris, Matanza-Riachuelo basin, microalgae.

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142 Consumption Pattern and Dietary Practices of Pregnant Women in Odeda Local Government Area of Ogun State

Authors: Ademuyiwa, M. O., Sanni, S. A.

Abstract:

The importance of maternal nutritional practices during pregnancy cannot be overemphasized. This paper assessed the consumption pattern and dietary practices of 50 pregnant women selected using purposive sampling technique from three health care centres (Primary Health Care Centre, Obantoko; Primary Health Care Centre Alabata; and the General Hospital, Odeda) in Odeda Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Structured questionnaire was used to elicit information on socioeconomic status, consumption pattern and dietary practices. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS, 17). The results indicated that about 58% of the pregnant women were below the age of 30 while 42% were ages 28-40 years. Only 16% had tertiary education while (38%) had secondary education, 52% earn income through petty trading. On food intake, 52% got their energy source from rice on a daily basis, followed by pap (38%) and eko (34%). For protein intake, 36% consumed bean cake on a daily basis while 66% consumed moinmoin 2-3 times a week. Orange (48%) and Green Leafy vegetable (40%) accounted for the mostly consumed fruit and vegetable on daily basis. In terms of animal origin, fish (76%), meat (58%) and eggs (30%) were consumed daily, while chicken and snail were consumed occasionally by 54% and 42%, respectively. Forty-six percent (46%) of the pregnant women eat more than three times daily; while 60% of the women eat outside their homes with 42% respondents eat out lunch and only two percent least eaten out dinner. It is important to increase in awareness campaign to sensitize the pregnant women on the importance of good nutrition especially fruits, vegetables and dairy products. 

Keywords: Consumption Pattern, Dietary Practices, Pregnant, Women, Nigeria.

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141 Heat Transfer Analysis of a Multiphase Oxygen Reactor Heated by a Helical Tube in the Cu-Cl Cycle of a Hydrogen Production

Authors: Mohammed W. Abdulrahman

Abstract:

In the thermochemical water splitting process by Cu-Cl cycle, oxygen gas is produced by an endothermic thermolysis process at a temperature of 530oC. Oxygen production reactor is a three-phase reactor involving cuprous chloride molten salt, copper oxychloride solid reactant and oxygen gas. To perform optimal performance, the oxygen reactor requires accurate control of heat transfer to the molten salt and decomposing solid particles within the thermolysis reactor. In this paper, the scale up analysis of the oxygen reactor that is heated by an internal helical tube is performed from the perspective of heat transfer. A heat balance of the oxygen reactor is investigated to analyze the size of the reactor that provides the required heat input for different rates of hydrogen production. It is found that the helical tube wall and the service side constitute the largest thermal resistances of the oxygen reactor system. In the analysis of this paper, the Cu-Cl cycle is assumed to be heated by two types of nuclear reactor, which are HTGR and CANDU SCWR. It is concluded that using CANDU SCWR requires more heat transfer rate by 3-4 times than that when using HTGR. The effect of the reactor aspect ratio is also studied and it is found that increasing the aspect ratio decreases the number of reactors and the rate of decrease in the number of reactors decreases by increasing the aspect ratio. Comparisons between the results of this study and pervious results of material balances in the oxygen reactor show that the size of the oxygen reactor is dominated by the heat balance rather than the material balance.

Keywords: Heat transfer, Cu-Cl cycle, hydrogen production, oxygen, clean energy.

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140 Effect of Pole Weight on Nordic Walking

Authors: Takeshi Sato, Mizuki Nakajima, Macky Kato, Shoji Igawa

Abstract:

The purpose of study was to investigate the effect of varying pole weights on energy expenditure, upper limb and lower limb muscle activity as Electromyogram during Nordic walking (NW). Four healthy men [age = 22.5 (±1.0) years, body mass = 61.4 (±3.6) kg, height = 170.3 (±4.3) cm] and three healthy women [age = 22.7 (±2.9) years, body mass = 53.0 (±1.7) kg, height = 156.7 (±4.5) cm] participated in the experiments after informed consent. Seven healthy subjects were tested on the treadmill, walking, walking (W) with Nordic Poles (NW) and walking with 1kg weight Nordic Poles (NW+1). Walking speed was 6 km per hours in all trials. Eight EMG activities were recorded by bipolar surface methods in biceps brachii, triceps brachii, trapezius, deltoideus, tibialis anterior, medial gastrocnemius, rectus femoris and biceps femoris muscles. And heart rate (HR), oxygen uptake (VO2), and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) were measured. The level of significance was set at a = 0.05, with p < 0.05 regarded as statistically significant. Our results confirmed that use of NW poles increased HR at a given upper arm muscle activity but decreased lower limb EMGs in comparison with W. Moreover NW was able to increase more step lengths with hip joint extension during NW rather than W. Also, EMG revealed higher activation of upper limb for almost all NW and 1kgNW tests plus added masses compared to W (p < 0.05). Therefore, it was thought either of NW and 1kgNW were to have benefit as a physical exercise for safe, feasible, and readily training for a wide range of aged people in the quality of daily life. However, there was no significant effected in leg muscles activity by using 1kgNW except for upper arm muscle activity during Nordic pole walking.

Keywords: Nordic walking, electromyogram, heart rate.

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139 Plasma Spraying of 316 Stainless Steel on Aluminum and Investigation of Coat/Substrate Interface

Authors: P. Abachi, T. W. Coyle, P. S. Musavi Gharavi

Abstract:

By applying coating onto a structural component, the corrosion and/or wear resistance requirements of the surface can be fulfilled. Since the layer adhesion of the coating influences the mechanical integrity of the coat/substrate interface during the service time, it should be examined accurately. At the present work, the tensile bonding strength of the 316 stainless steel plasma sprayed coating on aluminum substrate was determined by using tensile adhesion test, TAT, specimen. The interfacial fracture toughness was specified using four-point bend specimen containing a saw notch and modified chevron-notched short-bar (SB) specimen. The coating microstructure and fractured specimen surface were examined by using scanning electron- and optical-microscopy. The investigation of coated surface after tensile adhesion test indicates that the failure mechanism is mostly cohesive and rarely adhesive type. The calculated value of critical strain energy release rate proposes relatively good interface status. It seems that four-point bending test offers a potentially more sensitive means for evaluation of mechanical integrity of coating/substrate interfaces than is possible with the tensile test. The fracture toughness value reported for the modified chevron-notched short-bar specimen testing cannot be taken as absolute value because its calculation is based on the minimum stress intensity coefficient value which has been suggested for the fracture toughness determination of homogeneous parts in the ASTM E1304-97 standard. 

Keywords: Bonding strength, four-point bend test, interfacial fracture toughness, modified chevron-notched short-bar specimen, plasma sprayed coating.

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138 Assessing the Potential of a Waste Material for Cement Replacement and the Effect of Its Fineness in Soft Soil Stabilisation

Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, W. Atherton, F. Ruddock, E. Loffil

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This paper represents the results of experimental work to investigate the suitability of a waste material (WM) for soft soil stabilisation. In addition, the effect of particle size distribution (PSD) of the waste material on its performance as a soil stabiliser was investigated. The WM used in this study is produced from the incineration processes in domestic energy power plant and it is available in two different grades of fineness (coarse waste material (CWM) and fine waste material (FWM)). An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic matter content has been used in this study. The suitability of the CWM and FWM to improve the physical and engineering properties of the selected soil was evaluated dependant on the results obtained from the consistency limits, compaction characteristics (optimum moisture content (OMC) and maximum dry density (MDD)); along with the unconfined compressive strength test (UCS). Different percentages of CWM were added to the soft soil (3, 6, 9, 12 and 15%) to produce various admixtures. Then the UCS test was carried out on specimens under different curing periods (zero, 7, 14, and 28 days) to find the optimum percentage of CWM. The optimum and other two percentages (either side of the optimum content) were used for FWM to evaluate the effect of the fineness of the WM on UCS of the stabilised soil. Results indicated that both types of the WM used in this study improved the physical properties of the soft soil where the index of plasticity (IP) was decreased significantly. IP was decreased from 21 to 13.64 and 13.10 with 12% of CWM and 15% of FWM respectively. The results of the unconfined compressive strength test indicated that 12% of CWM was the optimum and this percentage developed the UCS value from 202kPa to 500kPa for 28 days cured samples, which is equal, approximately 2.5 times the UCS value for untreated soil. Moreover, this percentage provided 1.4 times the value of UCS for stabilized soil-CWA by using FWM which recorded just under 700kPa after 28 days curing. 

Keywords: Soft soil stabilisation, waste materials, fineness, and unconfined compressive strength.

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137 Relocation of Plastic Hinge of Interior Beam-Column Connections with Intermediate Bars in Reinforced Concrete and T-Section Steel Inserts in Precast Concrete Frames

Authors: P. Wongmatar, C. Hansapinyo, C. Buachart

Abstract:

Failure of typical seismic frames has been found by plastic hinge occurring on beams section near column faces. On the other hand, the seismic capacity of the frames can be enhanced if the plastic hinges of the beams are shifted away from the column faces. This paper presents detailing of reinforcements in the interior beam– column connections aiming to relocate the plastic hinge of reinforced concrete and precast concrete frames. Four specimens were tested under quasi-static cyclic load including two monolithic specimens and two precast specimens. For one monolithic specimen, typical seismic reinforcement was provided and considered as a reference specimen named M1. The other reinforced concrete frame M2 contained additional intermediate steel in the connection area compared with the specimen M1. For the precast specimens, embedded T-section steels in joint were provided, with and without diagonal bars in the connection area for specimen P1 and P2, respectively. The test results indicated the ductile failure with beam flexural failure in monolithic specimen M1 and the intermediate steel increased strength and improved joint performance of specimen M2. For the precast specimens, cracks generated at the end of the steel inserts. However, slipping of reinforcing steel lapped in top of the beams was seen before yielding of the main bars leading to the brittle failure. The diagonal bars in precast specimens P2 improved the connection stiffness and the energy dissipation capacity.

Keywords: Relocation, Plastic hinge, Intermediate bar, Tsection steel, Precast concrete frame.

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136 Flat Miniature Heat Pipes for Electronics Cooling: State of the Art, Experimental and Theoretical Analysis

Authors: M.C. Zaghdoudi, S. Maalej, J. Mansouri, M.B.H. Sassi

Abstract:

An experimental study is realized in order to verify the Mini Heat Pipe (MHP) concept for cooling high power dissipation electronic components and determines the potential advantages of constructing mini channels as an integrated part of a flat heat pipe. A Flat Mini Heat Pipe (FMHP) prototype including a capillary structure composed of parallel rectangular microchannels is manufactured and a filling apparatus is developed in order to charge the FMHP. The heat transfer improvement obtained by comparing the heat pipe thermal resistance to the heat conduction thermal resistance of a copper plate having the same dimensions as the tested FMHP is demonstrated for different heat input flux rates. Moreover, the heat transfer in the evaporator and condenser sections are analyzed, and heat transfer laws are proposed. In the theoretical part of this work, a detailed mathematical model of a FMHP with axial microchannels is developed in which the fluid flow is considered along with the heat and mass transfer processes during evaporation and condensation. The model is based on the equations for the mass, momentum and energy conservation, which are written for the evaporator, adiabatic, and condenser zones. The model, which permits to simulate several shapes of microchannels, can predict the maximum heat transfer capacity of FMHP, the optimal fluid mass, and the flow and thermal parameters along the FMHP. The comparison between experimental and model results shows the good ability of the numerical model to predict the axial temperature distribution along the FMHP.

Keywords: Electronics Cooling, Micro Heat Pipe, Mini Heat Pipe, Mini Heat Spreader, Capillary grooves.

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135 Forgeability Study of Medium Carbon Micro-Alloyed Forging Steel

Authors: M. I. Equbal, R.K. Ohdar, B. Singh, P. Talukdar

Abstract:

Micro-alloyed steel components are used in automotive industry for the necessity to make the manufacturing process cycles shorter when compared to conventional steel by eliminating heat treatment cycles, so an important saving of costs and energy can be reached by reducing the number of operations. Microalloying elements like vanadium, niobium or titanium have been added to medium carbon steels to achieve grain refinement with or without precipitation strengthening along with uniform microstructure throughout the matrix. Present study reports the applicability of medium carbon vanadium micro-alloyed steel in hot forging. Forgeability has been determined with respect to different cooling rates, after forging in a hydraulic press at 50% diameter reduction in temperature range of 900-11000C. Final microstructures, hardness, tensile strength, and impact strength have been evaluated. The friction coefficients of different lubricating conditions, viz., graphite in hydraulic oil, graphite in furnace oil, DF 150 (Graphite, Water-Based) die lubricant and dry or without any lubrication were obtained from the ring compression test for the above micro-alloyed steel. Results of ring compression tests indicate that graphite in hydraulic oil lubricant is preferred for free forging and dry lubricant is preferred for die forging operation. Exceptionally good forgeability and high resistance to fracture, especially for faster cooling rate has been observed for fine equiaxed ferrite-pearlite grains, some amount of bainite and fine precipitates of vanadium carbides and carbonitrides. The results indicated that the cooling rate has a remarkable effect on the microstructure and mechanical properties at room temperature.

Keywords: Cooling rate, Hot forging, Micro-alloyed, Ring compression.

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134 A Visual Analytics Tool for the Structural Health Monitoring of an Aircraft Panel

Authors: F. M. Pisano, M. Ciminello

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Aerospace, mechanical, and civil engineering infrastructures can take advantages from damage detection and identification strategies in terms of maintenance cost reduction and operational life improvements, as well for safety scopes. The challenge is to detect so called “barely visible impact damage” (BVID), due to low/medium energy impacts, that can progressively compromise the structure integrity. The occurrence of any local change in material properties, that can degrade the structure performance, is to be monitored using so called Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems, in charge of comparing the structure states before and after damage occurs. SHM seeks for any "anomalous" response collected by means of sensor networks and then analyzed using appropriate algorithms. Independently of the specific analysis approach adopted for structural damage detection and localization, textual reports, tables and graphs describing possible outlier coordinates and damage severity are usually provided as artifacts to be elaborated for information extraction about the current health conditions of the structure under investigation. Visual Analytics can support the processing of monitored measurements offering data navigation and exploration tools leveraging the native human capabilities of understanding images faster than texts and tables. Herein, a SHM system enrichment by integration of a Visual Analytics component is investigated. Analytical dashboards have been created by combining worksheets, so that a useful Visual Analytics tool is provided to structural analysts for exploring the structure health conditions examined by a Principal Component Analysis based algorithm.

Keywords: Interactive dashboards, optical fibers, structural health monitoring, visual analytics.

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133 Evaluation of Bakery Products Made from Barley-Gelatinized Corn Flour and Wheat-Defatted Rice Bran Flour Composites

Authors: Ahmed M. S. Hussein, Sahar Y. Al-Okbi

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In the present research, whole meal barley flour (WBF) was supplemented with gelatinized corn flour (GCF) in 0 and 30%. Whole meal wheat flour (WWF) was mixed with defatted rice bran (DRB) to produce 0, 20, 25, and 30% replacement levels. Rheological properties of dough were studied. Thermal properties and starch crystallinity of flours were evaluated. Flat bread, balady bread and pie were prepared from the different flour blends. The different bakeries were sensory evaluated. Color of raw materials and crust of bakery products were determined. Nutrients contents of raw flours and food products were assessed. Results showed that addition of GCF to WBF increased the viscosity and falling number of the produced dough. Water absorption, dough development time and dough stability increased with increasing the level of DRB in dough while, weakening and mixing tolerance index decreased. Extensibility and energy decreased, while, resistance to extension increased as DRB level increased. Gelatinized temperature of WWF, WBF, GCF, and DRB were 13.26, 35.09, 28.33, and 39.63, respectively. Starch crystallinity was affected when DRB was added to WWF. The highest protein content was present in balady bread made from 70% WWF and 30% DRB. The highest calcium, phosphorus, and potassium levels were present in products made from 100% WBF. Sensory attributes of the products were slightly affected by adding DRB and GCF. Conclusion: Addition of DRB or GCF to WWF or WBF, respectively affect the physical, chemical, rheological and sensory properties of balady bread, flat bread, and pie while improved their nutritive values.

Keywords: Bakeries, rheological properties, chemical and sensory attributes, flour thermal properties and starch crystallinity.

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132 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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131 Evaluation of the Discoloration of Methyl Orange Using Black Sand as Semiconductor through Photocatalytic Oxidation and Reduction

Authors: P. Acosta-Santamaría, A. Ibatá-Soto, A. López-Vásquez

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Organic compounds in wastewaters coming from textile and pharmaceutical industry generated multiple harmful effects on the environment and the human health. One of them is the methyl orange (MeO), an azoic dye considered to be a recalcitrant compound. The heterogeneous photocatalysis emerges as an alternative for treating this type of hazardous compounds, through the generation of OH radicals using radiation and a semiconductor oxide. According to the author’s knowledge, catalysts such as TiO2 doped with metals show high efficiency in degrading MeO; however, this presents economic limitations on industrial scale. Black sand can be considered as a naturally doped catalyst because in its structure is common to find compounds such as titanium, iron and aluminum oxides, also elements such as zircon, cadmium, manganese, etc. This study reports the photocatalytic activity of the mineral black sand used as semiconductor in the discoloration of MeO by oxidation and reduction photocatalytic techniques. For this, magnetic composites from the mineral were prepared (RM, M1, M2 and NM) and their activity were tested through MeO discoloration while TiO2 was used as reference. For the fractions, chemical, morphological and structural characterizations were performed using Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-Ray (SEM-EDX), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) analysis. M2 fraction showed higher MeO discoloration (93%) in oxidation conditions at pH 2 and it could be due to the presence of ferric oxides. However, the best result to reduction process was using M1 fraction (20%) at pH 2, which contains a higher titanium percentage. In the first process, hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) was used as electron donor agent. According to the results, black sand mineral can be used as natural semiconductor in photocatalytic process. It could be considered as a photocatalyst precursor in such processes, due to its low cost and easy access.

Keywords: Black sand mineral, methyl orange, oxidation, photocatalysis, reduction.

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130 Forecast of the Small Wind Turbines Sales with Replacement Purchases and with or without Account of Price Changes

Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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129 Identification of Risks Associated with Process Automation Systems

Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

Abstract:

A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: Distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system.

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