Search results for: Risk model

Authors: Eakarat Boonreang

Abstract:

The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities did not participate in the natural disaster management. Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and information about the capacity building and the natural disaster management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be consist of 1) link operation and information in the natural disaster management between nation, province, local and community levels, 2) enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate to the natural disaster management, 3) establish proactive natural disaster management both planning and implementation, 4) decentralize the natural disaster management to local government organizations, 5) construct public awareness in the natural disaster management to community, 6) support Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7) emphasis on participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.

Keywords: Capacity Building, Community Based Disaster Risk Management, Natural Disaster Management, Thailand.

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Authors: Maryam Jamela Ismail, Rosdiazli Ibrahim, Idris Ismail

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In the oil and gas industry, energy prediction can help the distributor and customer to forecast the outgoing and incoming gas through the pipeline. It will also help to eliminate any uncertainties in gas metering for billing purposes. The objective of this paper is to develop Neural Network Model for energy consumption and analyze the performance model. This paper provides a comprehensive review on published research on the energy consumption prediction which focuses on structures and the parameters used in developing Neural Network models. This paper is then focused on the parameter selection of the neural network prediction model development for energy consumption and analysis on the result. The most reliable model that gives the most accurate result is proposed for the prediction. The result shows that the proposed neural network energy prediction model is able to demonstrate an adequate performance with least Root Mean Square Error.

Keywords: Energy Prediction, Multilayer Feedforward, Levenberg-Marquardt, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

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Authors: A. Bachrata, N. Marie, F. Bertrand, J. B. Droin

Abstract:

The in-depth understanding of severe accident propagation in Generation IV of nuclear reactors is important so that appropriate risk management can be undertaken early in their design process. This paper is focused on model improvements in the SIMMER code in order to perform studies of severe accident mitigation of Sodium Fast Reactor. During the design process of the mitigation devices dedicated to extraction of molten fuel from the core region, the molten fuel propagation from the core up to the core catcher has to be studied. In this aim, analytical as well as the complex thermohydraulic simulations with SIMMER-III code are performed. The studies presented in this paper focus on physical phenomena and associated physical models that influence the corium relocation. Firstly, the molten pool heat exchange with surrounding structures is analyzed since it influences directly the instant of rupture of the dedicated tubes favoring the corium relocation for mitigation purpose. After the corium penetration into mitigation tubes, the fuel-coolant interactions result in formation of debris bed. Analyses of debris bed fluidization as well as sinking into a fluid are presented in this paper.

Keywords: Corium, mitigation tubes, SIMMER-III, sodium fast reactor (SFR).

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Authors: Anwar Jarndal

Abstract:

In this paper, a genetic-neural-network (GNN) based large-signal model for GaN HEMTs is presented along with its parameters extraction procedure. The model is easy to construct and implement in CAD software and requires only DC and S-parameter measurements. An improved decomposition technique is used to model self-heating effect. Two GNN models are constructed to simulate isothermal drain current and power dissipation, respectively. The two model are then composed to simulate the drain current. The modeling procedure was applied to a packaged GaN-on-Si HEMT and the developed model is validated by comparing its large-signal simulation with measured data. A very good agreement between the simulation and measurement is obtained.

Keywords: GaN HEMT, computer-aided design & modeling, neural networks, genetic optimization.

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Authors: Nabhan Hamadneh, Michael Dixon, Peter Cole, David Murray

Abstract:

This work presents the Risk Threshold RED (RTRED) congestion control strategy for TCP networks. In addition to the maximum and minimum thresholds in existing RED-based strategies, we add a third dropping level. This new dropping level is the risk threshold which works with the actual and average queue sizes to detect the immediate congestion in gateways. Congestion reaction by RTRED is on time. The reaction to congestion is neither too early, to avoid unfair packet losses, nor too late to avoid packet dropping from time-outs. We compared our novel strategy with RED and ARED strategies for TCP congestion handling using a NS-2 simulation script. We found that the RTRED strategy outperformed RED and ARED.

Keywords: AQM, congestion control, RED, TCP.

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: Age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Porush Bassi, Amanpreet Singh Brar

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Various models have been derived by studying large number of completed software projects from various organizations and applications to explore how project sizes mapped into project effort. But, still there is a need to prediction accuracy of the models. As Neuro-fuzzy based system is able to approximate the non-linear function with more precision. So, Neuro-Fuzzy system is used as a soft computing approach to generate model by formulating the relationship based on its training. In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy technique is used for software estimation modeling of on NASA software project data and performance of the developed models are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili and Doty Models mentioned in the literature.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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Authors: Ashwani K. Rana, Narottam Chand, Vinod Kapoor

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This paper presents a new compact analytical model of the gate leakage current in high-k based nano scale MOSFET by assuming a two-step inelastic trap-assisted tunneling (ITAT) process as the conduction mechanism. This model is based on an inelastic trap-assisted tunneling (ITAT) mechanism combined with a semiempirical gate leakage current formulation in the BSIM 4 model. The gate tunneling currents have been calculated as a function of gate voltage for different gate dielectrics structures such as HfO2, Al2O3 and Si3N4 with EOT (equivalent oxide thickness) of 1.0 nm. The proposed model is compared and contrasted with santaurus simulation results to verify the accuracy of the model and excellent agreement is found between the analytical and simulated data. It is observed that proposed analytical model is suitable for different highk gate dielectrics simply by adjusting two fitting parameters. It was also shown that gate leakages reduced with the introduction of high-k gate dielectric in place of SiO2.

Keywords: Analytical model, High-k gate dielectrics, inelastic trap assisted tunneling, metal–oxide–semiconductor (MOS) devices.

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Authors: Reza Gharehkhani

Abstract:

Sedimentation in reservoirs lowers the quality of consumed water, reduce the volume of reservoir, lowers the controllable amount of flood, increases the risk of water overflow during possible floods and the risk of reversal and reduction of dam's useful life. So in all stages of dam establishment such as cognitive studies, phase-1 studies of design, control, construction and maintenance, the problem of sedimentation in reservoir should be considered. What engineers need to do is examine and develop the methods to keep effective capacity of a reservoir, however engineers should also consider the influences of the methods on the flood disaster, functions of water use facilities and environmental issues.This article first examines the sedimentation in reservoirs and shows how to control it and then discusses the studies about the sedimens in Siazakh Dam.

Keywords: Sedimentation, Reservoir, Sediment Control, Dam

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Authors: Asaiel Alohaly

Abstract:

A theoretical framework for corporate governance is needed to bridge the gap between the corporate governance of private companies and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). The two dominant models, being shareholder and stakeholder, do not always address the specific requirements and challenges posed by ‘hybrid’ companies; namely, previously national bodies that have been privatised while the government retains significant control or holds a majority of shares. Thus, an exploratory theoretical study is needed to identify how ‘hybrid’ companies should be defined and why the state model should be acknowledged since it is the less conspicuous model in comparison with the shareholder and stakeholder models. This research focuses on the state model of corporate governance to understand the complex ownership, control pattern, goals, and corporate governance of these hybrid companies. The significance of this research lies in the fact that there is a limited available publication on the state model. This research argues for the state model, which proceeds from an understanding of the institutionally embedded characteristics of hybrid companies, where the government as a shareholder, is either a majority of the total shares, or has been granted power based on the rule of law; the company bylaws.

Keywords: Corporate governance, control, shareholders, state model.

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Authors: Kisik Song, Sungjoo Lee

Abstract:

Recent years have seen an increasing number of patent disputes due to excessive competition in the global market and a reduced technology life-cycle; this has increased the risk of investment in technology development. While many global companies have started developing a methodology to identify promising technologies and assess for decisions, the existing methodology still has some limitations. Post hoc assessments of the new technology are not being performed, especially to determine whether the suggested technologies turned out to be promising. For example, in existing quantitative patent analysis, a patent’s citation information has served as an important metric for quality assessment, but this analysis cannot be applied to recently registered patents because such information accumulates over time. Therefore, we propose a new technology assessment model that can replace citation information and positively affect technological development based on post hoc analysis of the patents for promising technologies. Additionally, we collect customer reviews on a target technology to extract keywords that show the customers’ needs, and we determine how many keywords are covered in the new technology. Finally, we construct a portfolio (based on a technology assessment from patent information) and a customer-based marketability assessment (based on review data), and we use them to visualize the characteristics of the new technologies.

Keywords: Technology assessment, patents, citation information, opinion mining.

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Authors: Mujde Turkkan, Nurkan Yagiz

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The vibrations, caused by the irregularities of the road surface, are to be suppressed via suspension systems. In this paper, sliding mode control for a half bus model with air suspension system is presented. The bus is modelled as five degrees of freedom (DoF) system. The mathematical model of the half bus is developed using Lagrange Equations. For time domain analysis, the bus model is assumed to travel at certain speed over the bump road. The numerical results of the analysis indicate that the sliding mode controllers can be effectively used to suppress the vibrations and to improve the ride comfort of the busses.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, bus model, air suspension.

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Authors: Julinda Keçi

Abstract:

In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and useroriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework, this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: construction, design, economic, legal, market, natural, operation, political, project finance, project selection and relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.

Keywords: Construction, infrastructure, public private partnerships, risks.

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Authors: D. H. Kim, Y. H. Kim, T. Kim

Abstract:

A new method identifies coupled fluid-structure system with a reduced set of state variables is presented. Assuming that the structural model is known a priori either from an analysis or a test and using linear transformations between structural and aeroelastic states, it is possible to deduce aerodynamic information from sampled time histories of the aeroelastic system. More specifically given a finite set of structural modes the method extracts generalized aerodynamic force matrix corresponding to these mode shapes. Once the aerodynamic forces are known, an aeroelastic reduced-order model can be constructed in discrete-time, state-space format by coupling the structural model and the aerodynamic system. The resulting reduced-order model is suitable for constant Mach, varying density analysis.

Keywords: ROM (Reduced-Order Model), aero elasticity, AGARD 445.6 wing.

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Authors: Nabila Charkaoui

Abstract:

Interest in Human Consciousness has been revived in the late 20th century from different scientific disciplines. Consciousness studies involve both its understanding and its application. In this paper, a computational model of the minimum consciousness functions necessary in my point of view for Artificial Intelligence applications is presented with the aim of improving the way computations will be made in the future. In section I, human consciousness is briefly described according to the scope of this paper. In section II, a minimum set of consciousness functions is defined - based on the literature reviewed - to be modelled, and then a computational model of these functions is presented in section III. In section IV, an analysis of the model is carried out to describe its functioning in detail.

Keywords: Consciousness, perception, attention.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

Herpes zoster is a disease that manifests as a dermatological condition. The characteristic of this disease is an irritating skin rash with blisters. This is often limited to one side of body. From the data of Herpes zoster cases in Thailand, we found that age structure effects to the transmission of this disease. In this study, we construct the age structural model of Herpes zoster in Thailand. The local stability analysis of this model is given. The numerical solutions are shown to confirm the analytical results.

Keywords: Age structural model, Herpes zoster, local stability, Numerical solution.

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Authors: Jan Erik Stellet

Abstract:

This article presents a detailed analysis and comparative performance evaluation of model reference adaptive control systems. In contrast to classical control theory, adaptive control methods allow to deal with time-variant processes. Inspired by the works [1] and [2], two methods based on the MIT rule and Lyapunov rule are applied to a linear first order system. The system is simulated and it is investigated how changes to the adaptation gain affect the system performance. Furthermore, variations in the reference model parameters, that is changing the desired closed-loop behaviour are examinded.

Keywords: Adaptive control systems, Adaptation gain, MIT rule, Lyapunov rule, Model reference adaptive control.

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Authors: Tanvir Ahmed, Thanh N. Long, Phan T. Huong, Donald E. Stewart

Abstract:

This paper presents views on condom use and the contexts of safe and unsafe sexual practices with different sexual partners and their relationships among Injecting Drug Users (IDUs) in Hai Phong, Vietnam. Fifteen IDUs participated and two local interviewers conducted qualitative semi-structured face-to-face interviews in September-October, 2012 in Vietnamese language. Data were analyzed thematically. Non-protective condom attitudes include negotiate or convince Female Sex Workers (FSW); not realizing risk, importance or necessity; partner doesn’t like, and having extra money/drug from clients. On the other hand, self-awareness, family-consciousness, suspicion of STI presence, fear of getting HIV, and client negotiation sometimes resulted in a safe-sex practice. A thematic diagram was developed to present the relationship (strong/weak) between condom attitude and sexual practice (safe/unsafe) by partner types. The experiences and views reflected in the qualitative information emphasize the heightened need for safe-sex education especially among young IDUs (male/female) highlighting sexual transmission risk.

Keywords: AIDS, HIV, injecting drug user, risk behaviors, Vietnam.

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Authors: Mohd Shahrom Ismail, B.T. Hang Tuah Baharudin, K.K.B. Hon

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In this paper, a methodology of a model based on predicting the tool forces oblique machining are introduced by adopting the orthogonal technique. The applied analytical calculation is mostly based on Devries model and some parts of the methodology are employed from Amareggo-Brown model. Model validation is performed by comparing experimental data with the prediction results on machining titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) based on micro-cutting tool perspective. Good agreements with the experiments are observed. A detailed friction form that affected the tool forces also been examined with reasonable results obtained.

Keywords: dynamics machining, micro cutting tool, Tool forces

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Authors: M. Rychlik, R. Roszak, M. Morzynski, M. Nowak, H. Hausa, K. Kotecki

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Article presents the geometry and structure reconstruction procedure of the aircraft model for flatter research (based on the I22-IRYDA aircraft). For reconstruction the Reverse Engineering techniques and advanced surface modeling CAD tools are used. Authors discuss all stages of data acquisition process, computation and analysis of measured data. For acquisition the three dimensional structured light scanner was used. In the further sections, details of reconstruction process are present. Geometry reconstruction procedure transform measured input data (points cloud) into the three dimensional parametric computer model (NURBS solid model) which is compatible with CAD systems. Parallel to the geometry of the aircraft, the internal structure (structural model) are extracted and modeled. In last chapter the evaluation of obtained models are discussed.

Keywords: computer modeling, numerical simulation, Reverse Engineering, structural model

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Authors: Yung-Yuan Hsu

Abstract:

The primary objective of this paper was to construct a “kinematic parameter-independent modeling of three-axis machine tools for geometric error measurement" technique. Improving the accuracy of the geometric error for three-axis machine tools is one of the machine tools- core techniques. This paper first applied the traditional method of HTM to deduce the geometric error model for three-axis machine tools. This geometric error model was related to the three-axis kinematic parameters where the overall errors was relative to the machine reference coordinate system. Given that the measurement of the linear axis in this model should be on the ideal motion axis, there were practical difficulties. Through a measurement method consolidating translational errors and rotational errors in the geometric error model, we simplified the three-axis geometric error model to a kinematic parameter-independent model. Finally, based on the new measurement method corresponding to this error model, we established a truly practical and more accurate error measuring technique for three-axis machine tools.

Keywords: Three-axis machine tool, Geometric error, HTM, Error measuring

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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Authors: M. A. Serag-Eldin

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of simple measurements conducted on a model of a wind-driven venturi-type room ventilator. The ventilator design is new and was developed employing mathematical modeling. However, the computational model was not validated experimentally for the particular application considered. The paper presents the performance of the ventilator model under laboratory conditions, for five different wind tunnel speeds. The results are used to both demonstrate the effectiveness of the new design and to validate the computational model employed to develop it.

Keywords: Venturi-flow, ventilation, Wind-energy, Wind flow.

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Authors: Ali Heidari

Abstract:

This paper presents the principles for improving flood mitigation operation in multipurpose dams and maximizing reservoir performance during flood occurrence with a focus on the real-time operation of gated spillways. The criteria of operation include the safety of dams during flood management, minimizing the downstream flood risk by decreasing the flood hazard and fulfilling water supply and other purposes of the dam operation in mid and long terms horizons. The parameters deemed to be important include flood inflow, outlet capacity restrictions, downstream flood inundation damages, economic revenue of dam operation, and environmental and sedimentation restrictions. A simulation model was used to determine the real-time release of the Dez Dam located in the Dez Rivers in southwest Iran, considering the gate regulation curves for the gated spillway. The results of the simulation model show that there is a possibility to improve the current procedures used in the real-time operation of the dams, particularly using gate regulation curves and early flood forecasting system results. The Dez Dam operation data show that in one of the best flood control records, 17% of the total active volume and flood control pool of the reservoir have not been used in decreasing the downstream flood hazard despite the availability of a flood forecasting system.

Keywords: Dam operation, flood control criteria, Dez Dam, Iran.

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Authors: Irisa Murniece, Daina Karklina, Ruta Galoburda

Abstract:

From food consumption surveys has been found that potato consumption comparing to other European countries is one of the highest. Hence acrylamide (AA) intake coming from fried potatoes in population might be high as well. The aim of the research was to determine acrylamide content and estimate intake of acrylamide from roasted potatoes bred and cultivated in Latvia. Five common Latvian potato varieties were selected: Lenora, Brasla, Imanta, Zile, and Madara. A two-year research was conducted during two periods: just after harvesting and after six months of storage. Time and temperature (210 ± 5°C) was recorded during frying. AA was extracted from potatoes by solid phase extraction and AA content was determined by LC-MS/MS. estimated intake of acrylamide ranges from 0.012 to 0.496μgkg-1 BW per day.

Keywords: potato, roasting, variety, acrylamide, Latvia, risk assessment.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a severe health problem caused by morbid obesity, the severest form of obesity. The components of MetS are rather stable in adults. However, the diagnosis of MetS in morbid obese (MO) children still constitutes a matter of discussion. The aim of this study was to develop a formula, which facilitated the diagnosis of MetS in MO children and was capable of discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings. The study population comprised MO children. Age and sex-dependent body mass index (BMI) percentiles of the children were above 99. Increased blood pressure, elevated fasting blood glucose (FBG), elevated triglycerides (TRG) and/or decreased high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in addition to central obesity were listed as MetS components for each child. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, there were 42 MO children without MetS components. Second group was composed of 44 MO children with at least two MetS components. Anthropometric measurements including weight, height, waist and hip circumferences were performed during physical examination. BMI and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values were calculated. Informed consent forms were obtained from the parents of the children. Institutional Non-Interventional Clinical Studies Ethics Committee approved the study design. Routine biochemical analyses including FBG, insulin (INS), TRG, HDL-C were performed. The performance and the clinical utility of Diagnostic Obesity Notation Model Assessment Metabolic Syndrome Index (DONMA MetS index) [(INS/FBG)/(HDL-C/TRG)*100] was tested. Appropriate statistical tests were applied to the study data. p value smaller than 0.05 was defined as significant. MetS index values were 41.6 ± 5.1 in MO group and 104.4 ± 12.8 in MetS group. Corresponding values for HDL-C values were 54.5 ± 13.2 mg/dl and 44.2 ± 11.5 mg/dl. There was a statistically significant difference between the groups (p < 0.001). Upon evaluation of the correlations between MetS index and HDL-C values, a much stronger negative correlation was found in MetS group (r = -0.515; p = 0.001) in comparison with the correlation detected in MO group (r = -0.371; p = 0.016). From these findings, it was concluded that the statistical significance degree of the difference between MO and MetS groups was highly acceptable for this recently introduced MetS index. This was due to the involvement of all of the biochemically defined MetS components into the index. This is particularly important because each of these four parameters used in the formula is a cardiac risk factor. Aside from discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings, MetS index introduced in this study is important from the cardiovascular risk point of view in MetS group of children.

Keywords: Fasting blood glucose, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, insulin, metabolic syndrome, morbid obesity, triglycerides.

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Authors: Ali Taee Zade, Siamak Rasulzadeh, Reza Torkashvan

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Although Model Driven Architecture has taken successful steps toward model-based software development, this approach still faces complex situations and ambiguous questions while applying to real world software systems. One of these questions - which has taken the most interest and focus - is how model transforms between different abstraction levels, MDA proposes. In this paper, we propose an approach based on Story Driven Modeling and Aspect Oriented Programming to ease these transformations. Service Oriented Architecture is taken as the target model to test the proposed mechanism in a functional system. Service Oriented Architecture and Model Driven Architecture [1] are both considered as the frontiers of their own domain in the software world. Following components - which was the greatest step after object oriented - SOA is introduced, focusing on more integrated and automated software solutions. On the other hand - and from the designers' point of view - MDA is just initiating another evolution. MDA is considered as the next big step after UML in designing domain.

Keywords: SOA, MDA, SDM, Model Transformation, Middleware Transparency, Aspects and Jini.

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Authors: Azlina Abu Bakar, Abdul Fatah Wan Sidek

Abstract:

Well-being has been given special emphasis in quality of life. It involves living a meaningful, life satisfaction, stability and happiness in life. Well-being also concerns the satisfaction of physical, psychological, social needs and demands of an individual. The purpose of this study was to validate three-factor measurement model of well-being using structural equation modeling (SEM). The conceptions of well-being measured such dimensions as physical, psychological and social well-being. This study was done based on a total sample of 650 adolescents from east-coast of peninsular Malaysia. The Well-Being Scales which was adapted from [1] was used in this study. The items were hypothesized a priori to have nonzero loadings on all dimensions in the model. The findings of the SEM demonstrated that it is a good fitting model which the proposed model fits the driving theory; (x2df = 1.268; GFI = .994; CFI = .998; TLI= .996; p = .255; RMSEA = .021). Composite reliability (CR) was .93 and average variance extracted (AVE) was 58%. The model in this study fits with the sample of data and well-being is important to bring sustainable development to the mainstream.

Keywords: Adolescence, Structural Equation Modeling, Sustainable Development, Well-Being.

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.

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Authors: Nipun Manirajan, Heeralal Gargama, Sushil Guhe, Manoj Prabhakaran

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In railway industry, train sets are designed based on contractual requirements (mission profile), where reliability targets are measured in terms of mean distance between failures (MDBF). However, during the beginning of revenue services, trains do not achieve the designed mission profile distance (mileage) within the timeframe due to infrastructure constraints, scarcity of commuters or other operational challenges thereby not respecting the original design inputs. Since trains do not run sufficiently and do not achieve the designed mileage within the specified time, car builder has a risk of not achieving the contractual MDBF target. This paper proposes a constant failure rate based model to deal with the situations where mileage accumulation is not a part of the design mission profile. The model provides appropriate MDBF target to be demonstrated based on actual accumulated mileage. A case study of rolling stock running in the field is undertaken to analyze the failure data and MDBF target demonstration during low mileage accumulation. The results of case study prove that with the proposed method, reliability targets are achieved under low mileage accumulation.

Keywords: Mean distance between failures, mileage based reliability, reliability target normalization, rolling stock reliability.

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