Search results for: Support vector regression

Authors: Kemal Izci

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Assessment forms an important part of instruction. Assessment that aims to support learning is known as formative assessment and it contributes student’s learning gain and motivation. However, teachers rarely use assessment formatively to aid their students’ learning. Thus, reviewing the factors that limit or support teachers’ practices of formative assessment will be crucial for guiding educators to support prospective teachers in using formative assessment and also eliminate limiting factors to let practicing teachers to engage in formative assessment practices during their instruction. The study, by using teacher’s change environment framework, reviews literature on formative assessment and presents a tentative model that illustrates the factors impacting teachers’ adoption of formative assessment in their teaching. The results showed that there are four main factors consisting personal, contextual, resource-related and external factors that influence teachers’ practices of formative assessment.

Keywords: Assessment practices, formative assessment, teachers, factors for use of formative assessment.

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Authors: Florin Gorunescu

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Diagnosis can be achieved by building a model of a certain organ under surveillance and comparing it with the real time physiological measurements taken from the patient. This paper deals with the presentation of the benefits of using Data Mining techniques in the computer-aided diagnosis (CAD), focusing on the cancer detection, in order to help doctors to make optimal decisions quickly and accurately. In the field of the noninvasive diagnosis techniques, the endoscopic ultrasound elastography (EUSE) is a recent elasticity imaging technique, allowing characterizing the difference between malignant and benign tumors. Digitalizing and summarizing the main EUSE sample movies features in a vector form concern with the use of the exploratory data analysis (EDA). Neural networks are then trained on the corresponding EUSE sample movies vector input in such a way that these intelligent systems are able to offer a very precise and objective diagnosis, discriminating between benign and malignant tumors. A concrete application of these Data Mining techniques illustrates the suitability and the reliability of this methodology in CAD.

Keywords: Endoscopic ultrasound elastography, exploratorydata analysis, neural networks, non-invasive cancer detection.

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Authors: Yakin Hajlaoui, Richard Labib, Jean-Franc¸ois Plante, Michel Gamache

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This study presents the Multi-Layer Inverse Distance Weighting Model (ML-IDW), inspired by the mathematical formulation of both multi-layer neural networks (ML-NNs) and Inverse Distance Weighting model (IDW). ML-IDW leverages ML-NNs’ processing capabilities, characterized by compositions of learnable non-linear functions applied to input features, and incorporates IDW’s ability to learn anisotropic spatial dependencies, presenting a promising solution for nonlinear spatial interpolation and learning from complex spatial data. We employ gradient descent and backpropagation to train ML-IDW. The performance of the proposed model is compared against conventional spatial interpolation models such as Kriging and standard IDW on regression and classification tasks using simulated spatial datasets of varying complexity. Our results highlight the efficacy of ML-IDW, particularly in handling complex spatial dataset, exhibiting lower mean square error in regression and higher F1 score in classification.

Keywords: Deep Learning, Multi-Layer Neural Networks, Gradient Descent, Spatial Interpolation, Inverse Distance Weighting.

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Authors: Musarrat Jabeen

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Thoughtful intelligence offers a sustainable position to enhance the influence of decision-makers. Thoughtful Intelligence implies the understanding to realize the impact of one’s thoughts, words and actions on the survival, dignity and development of the individuals, groups and nations. Thoughtful intelligence has received minimal consideration in the area of Decision Support Systems, with an end goal to evaluate the quantity of knowledge and its viability. This pattern degraded the imbibed contribution of thoughtful intelligence required for sustainable decision making. Given the concern, this paper concentrates on the question: How to present a model of Thoughtful Decision Support System (TDSS)? The aim of this paper is to appreciate the concepts of thoughtful intelligence and insinuate a Decision Support System based on thoughtful intelligence. Thoughtful intelligence includes three dynamic competencies: i) Realization about long term impacts of decisions that are made in a specific time and space, ii) A great sense of taking actions, iii) Intense interconnectivity with people and nature and; seven associate competencies, of Righteousness, Purposefulness, Understanding, Contemplation, Sincerity, Mindfulness, and Nurturing. The study utilizes two methods: Focused group discussion to count prevailing Decision Support Systems; 70% results of focus group discussions found six decision support systems and the positive inexistence of thoughtful intelligence among decision support systems regarding sustainable decision making. Delphi focused on defining thoughtful intelligence to model (TDSS). 65% results helped to conceptualize (definition and description) of thoughtful intelligence. TDSS is offered here as an addition in the decision making literature. The clients are top leaders.

Keywords: Thoughtful intelligence, Sustainable decision making, Thoughtful decision support system.

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Authors: U. Bottigli, D.Cascio, F. Fauci, B. Golosio, R. Magro, G.L. Masala, P. Oliva, G. Raso, S.Stumbo

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Purpose of this work is the development of an automatic classification system which could be useful for radiologists in the investigation of breast cancer. The software has been designed in the framework of the MAGIC-5 collaboration. In the automatic classification system the suspicious regions with high probability to include a lesion are extracted from the image as regions of interest (ROIs). Each ROI is characterized by some features based on morphological lesion differences. Some classifiers as a Feed Forward Neural Network, a K-Nearest Neighbours and a Support Vector Machine are used to distinguish the pathological records from the healthy ones. The results obtained in terms of sensitivity (percentage of pathological ROIs correctly classified) and specificity (percentage of non-pathological ROIs correctly classified) will be presented through the Receive Operating Characteristic curve (ROC). In particular the best performances are 88% ± 1 of area under ROC curve obtained with the Feed Forward Neural Network.

Keywords: Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbours, SupportVector Machine, Computer Aided Diagnosis.

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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Authors: Ahmed Kamil Hasan Al-Ali, Bouchra Senadji, Ganesh Naik

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We propose a system to real environmental noise and channel mismatch for forensic speaker verification systems. This method is based on suppressing various types of real environmental noise by using independent component analysis (ICA) algorithm. The enhanced speech signal is applied to mel frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC) or MFCC feature warping to extract the essential characteristics of the speech signal. Channel effects are reduced using an intermediate vector (i-vector) and probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) approach for classification. The proposed algorithm is evaluated by using an Australian forensic voice comparison database, combined with car, street and home noises from QUT-NOISE at a signal to noise ratio (SNR) ranging from -10 dB to 10 dB. Experimental results indicate that the MFCC feature warping-ICA achieves a reduction in equal error rate about (48.22%, 44.66%, and 50.07%) over using MFCC feature warping when the test speech signals are corrupted with random sessions of street, car, and home noises at -10 dB SNR.

Keywords: Noisy forensic speaker verification, ICA algorithm, MFCC, MFCC feature warping.

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: Neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression.

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Authors: H. Loumi-Fergane, A. Belaidi

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The problem of symmetries in field theory has been analyzed using geometric frameworks, such as the multisymplectic models by using in particular the multivector field formalism. In this paper, we expand the vector fields associated to infinitesimal symmetries which give rise to invariant quantities as Noether currents for classical field theories and relativistic mechanic using the multisymplectic geometry where the Poincaré-Cartan form has thus been greatly simplified using the Second Order Partial Differential Equation (SOPDE) for multi-vector fields verifying Euler equations. These symmetries have been classified naturally according to the construction of the fiber bundle used.  In this work, unlike other works using the analytical method, our geometric model has allowed us firstly to distinguish the angular moments of the gauge field obtained during different transformations while these moments are gathered in a single expression and are obtained during a rotation in the Minkowsky space. Secondly, no conditions are imposed on the Lagrangian of the mechanics with respect to its dependence in time and in qⁱ, the currents obtained naturally from the transformations are respectively the energy and the momentum of the system.

Keywords: Field theories, relativistic mechanics, Lagrangian formalism, multisymplectic geometry, symmetries, Noether theorem, conservation laws.

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Authors: Margarita Zavala, Julio Rolón, Gabriel Chavira, José González, Jorge Orozco, Roberto Pichardo

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Adolescence is a neuralgic stage in the formation of every human being, generally at this stage is when the middle school level is studied. In 2006 in Mexico incorporated “mentoring" space to assist students in their integration and participation in life. In public middle schools, is sometimes difficult to be aware of situations that affect students because of the number of them and traditional records management. Whit this they lose the opportunity to provide timely support as a preventive way. In order to provide this support, it is required to know the students by detecting the relevant information that has greater impact on their learning process. This research is looking to check if it is possible to identify student’s relevant information to detect when it is at risk, and then to propose a model to manage in a proper way such information.

Keywords: Adolescence, mentoring, middle school students, mentoring system support.

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Authors: Stephen Akuma, Timothy Ndera

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Information seekers get “lost in hyperspace” due to the voluminous documents updated daily on the internet. Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHS) are used to direct learners to their target goals. One of the most common AHS designed to help information seekers to overcome the problem of information overload is the Adaptive Education Hypermedia System (AEHS). However, this paper focuses on AEHS that adopts the learning preference of high school students and deliver learning content according to this preference throughout their learning experience. The research developed a prototype system for predicting students’ learning preference from the Visual, Aural, Read-Write and Kinesthetic (VARK) learning style model and adopting the learning content suitable to their preference. The predicting strength of several classifiers was compared and we found Support Vector Machine (SVM) to be more accurate in predicting learning style based on users’ preferences.

Keywords: Hypermedia, adaptive education, learning style, lesson content, user profile, prediction, feedback, adaptive hypermedia, learning style.

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Authors: Patricia B. Cruz, Catrina Jean G. Valenzuela, Analyn N. Yumang

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Nearly a hundred per million of the Filipino population is diagnosed with Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD). The early stage of CKD has no symptoms and can only be discovered once the patient undergoes urinalysis. Over the years, different methods were discovered and used for the quantification of the urinary albumin such as the immunochemical assays where most of these methods require large machinery that has a high cost in maintenance and resources, and a dipstick test which is yet to be proven and is still debated as a reliable method in detecting early stages of microalbuminuria. This research study involves the use of the liquid chromatography concept in microfluidic instruments with biosensor as a means of separation and detection respectively, and linear regression to quantify human urinary albumin. The researchers’ main objective was to create a miniature system that quantifies and detect patients’ urinary albumin while reducing the amount of volume used per five test samples. For this study, 30 urine samples of unknown albumin concentrations were tested using VITROS Analyzer and the microfluidic system for comparison. Based on the data shared by both methods, the actual vs. predicted regression were able to create a positive linear relationship with an R² of 0.9995 and a linear equation of y = 1.09x + 0.07, indicating that the predicted values and actual values are approximately equal. Furthermore, the microfluidic instrument uses 75% less in total volume – sample and reagents combined, compared to the VITROS Analyzer per five test samples.

Keywords: Chronic kidney disease, microfluidics, linear regression, VITROS analyzer, urinary albumin.

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.

Keywords: Covariance, logistic model, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: A.Venkadesan, S.Himavathi, A.Muthuramalingam

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Rotor Flux based Model Reference Adaptive System (RF-MRAS) is the most popularly used conventional speed estimation scheme for sensor-less IM drives. In this scheme, the voltage model equations are used for the reference model. This encounters major drawbacks at low frequencies/speed which leads to the poor performance of RF-MRAS. Replacing the reference model using Neural Network (NN) based flux estimator provides an alternate solution and addresses such drawbacks. This paper identifies an NN based flux estimator using Single Neuron Cascaded (SNC) Architecture. The proposed SNC-NN model replaces the conventional voltage model in RF-MRAS to form a novel MRAS scheme named as SNC-NN-MRAS. Through simulation the proposed SNC-NN-MRAS is shown to be promising in terms of all major issues and robustness to parameter variation. The suitability of the proposed SNC-NN-MRAS based speed estimator and its advantages over RF-MRAS for sensor-less induction motor drives is comprehensively presented through extensive simulations.

Keywords: Sensor-less operation, vector-controlled IM drives, SNC-NN-MRAS, single neuron cascaded architecture, RF-MRAS, artificial neural network

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Authors: Shamirah-Farah Faleel, Cai-Lian Tam, Teck-Heang Lee, Wai-Mun Har, Yie-Chu Foo

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The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of perceived social support and stress on the coping capability and level of depression of foreign and local students in Malaysia. Using convenience sampling, 200 students from three universities in Selangor, Malaysia participated in the study. The results of this study revealed that there was a significant relationship between perceived social support and coping capability. It is also found that there is a negative relationship between coping capability and depression. Further, stress and depression are positively related whereas stress and coping capability are negatively related. Lastly, there is no significant difference for the stress level and coping capability amongst local and foreign students.

Keywords: Coping capability, depression, perceived social support, stress.

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Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Josef Navrátil

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Managing the emergency situations at the Emergency Staff requires a high co-operation between its members and their fast decision making. For these purpose it is necessary to prepare Emergency Staff members adequately. The aim of this paper is to describe the development of information support that focuses to emergency staff processes and effective decisions. The information support is based on the principles of process management, and Process Framework for Emergency Management was used during the development. The output is the information system that allows users to simulate an emergency situation, including effective decision making. The system also evaluates the progress of the emergency processes solving by quantitative and qualitative indicators. By using the simulator, a higher quality education of specialists can be achieved. Therefore, negative impacts resulting from arising emergency situations can be directly reduced.

Keywords: Information Support for Emergency Staff, Effective Decisions, Process Framework, Simulation of Emergency Processes, System Development.

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Authors: Andrew Reilly, Nancy A. Rudd

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The appearance management behavior of tanning by gay men is examined through the lens of Impression Formation. The study proposes that body image, self-esteem, and internalized homophobia are connected and affect the motives for engaging in sun, salon, and cosmetic tanning. Motives examined were: to look masculine, to look attractive to (potential) partners, to look attractive in general, to socialize, to meet a peer standard, and for personal satisfaction. Using regression analysis to examine data of 103 gay men who engage in at least one method of tanning, results reveal that components of body image and internalized homophobia–but not self-esteem–are linked to various motives and methods of tanning. These findings support and extend the literature of Impression Formation Theory and provide practitioners in the health and healthrelated fields new avenues to pursue when dealing with diseases related to tanning.

Keywords: Body image, gay men, tanning.

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Authors: Ing-Jr Ding

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This paper presents a technical speaker adaptation method called WMLLR, which is based on maximum likelihood linear regression (MLLR). In MLLR, a linear regression-based transform which adapted the HMM mean vectors was calculated to maximize the likelihood of adaptation data. In this paper, the prior knowledge of the initial model is adequately incorporated into the adaptation. A series of speaker adaptation experiments are carried out at a 30 famous city names database to investigate the efficiency of the proposed method. Experimental results show that the WMLLR method outperforms the conventional MLLR method, especially when only few utterances from a new speaker are available for adaptation.

Keywords: hidden Markov model, maximum likelihood linearregression, speech recognition, speaker adaptation.

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Authors: A. Gagat-Matuła

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The article is concerned in the issue of social support and quality of life of youth suffering from cerebral palsy, who are temporarily orphaned due to the emigration of a parent. Migration causes multi-aspect consequences in various spheres of life. They are particularly severe for the functioning of families. Temporal parting of parents and children, especially the disabled, is a difficult situation. In this case, the family structure is changed, as well as the quality of life of its members. Children can handle migration parting in a better or worse way; these can be divided into properly functioning and manifesting behaviour disorders. In conditions of the progressing phenomenon of labour migration of Poles and a wide spectrum of consequences for the whole social life, it is essential to undertake actions aimed at support of migrants and their families. This article focuses mainly on social support and quality of families members, of which, are the labour migrants perceived by youth suffering from cerebral palsy. The quantitative method was used in this study. In the study, the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS) by Diener, was used. The analysed group consisted of 50 persons (37 girls and 13 boys), aged 16 years to 18 years, whose parents are labour migrants. The results indicate that the quality of life and social support for youth suffering from cerebral palsy who are temporarily orphaned is at a low and average level.

Keywords: Social support, quality of life, migration, cerebral palsy.

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Authors: Rozilawati Binti Dollah, Masaki Aono

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Classifying biomedical literature is a difficult and challenging task, especially when a large number of biomedical articles should be organized into a hierarchical structure. In this paper, we present an approach for classifying a collection of biomedical text abstracts downloaded from Medline database with the help of ontology alignment. To accomplish our goal, we construct two types of hierarchies, the OHSUMED disease hierarchy and the Medline abstract disease hierarchies from the OHSUMED dataset and the Medline abstracts, respectively. Then, we enrich the OHSUMED disease hierarchy before adapting it to ontology alignment process for finding probable concepts or categories. Subsequently, we compute the cosine similarity between the vector in probable concepts (in the “enriched" OHSUMED disease hierarchy) and the vector in Medline abstract disease hierarchies. Finally, we assign category to the new Medline abstracts based on the similarity score. The results obtained from the experiments show the performance of our proposed approach for hierarchical classification is slightly better than the performance of the multi-class flat classification.

Keywords: Biomedical literature, hierarchical text classification, ontology alignment, text mining.

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Authors: Wayne Goodridge, Alexander Nikov, Ashok Sahai

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Multi criteria decision making (MCDM) methods like analytic hierarchy process, ELECTRE and multi-attribute utility theory are critically studied. They have irregularities in terms of the reliability of ranking of the best alternatives. The Routing Decision Support (RDS) algorithm is trying to improve some of their deficiencies. This paper gives a mathematical verification that the RDS algorithm conforms to the test criteria for an effective MCDM method when a linear preference function is considered.

Keywords: Decision support systems, linear preference function, multi-criteria decision-making algorithm, analytic hierarchy process.

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Authors: Sajjad Ahmed, Knut Hinkelmann, Flavio Corradini

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Fake news detection research is still in the early stage as this is a relatively new phenomenon in the interest raised by society. Machine learning helps to solve complex problems and to build AI systems nowadays and especially in those cases where we have tacit knowledge or the knowledge that is not known. We used machine learning algorithms and for identification of fake news; we applied three classifiers; Passive Aggressive, Naïve Bayes, and Support Vector Machine. Simple classification is not completely correct in fake news detection because classification methods are not specialized for fake news. With the integration of machine learning and text-based processing, we can detect fake news and build classifiers that can classify the news data. Text classification mainly focuses on extracting various features of text and after that incorporating those features into classification. The big challenge in this area is the lack of an efficient way to differentiate between fake and non-fake due to the unavailability of corpora. We applied three different machine learning classifiers on two publicly available datasets. Experimental analysis based on the existing dataset indicates a very encouraging and improved performance.

Keywords: Fake news detection, types of fake news, machine learning, natural language processing, classification techniques.

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Authors: Omer Nebil Yaveroglu, Tolga Can

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In this study, a high accuracy protein-protein interaction prediction method is developed. The importance of the proposed method is that it only uses sequence information of proteins while predicting interaction. The method extracts phylogenetic profiles of proteins by using their sequence information. Combining the phylogenetic profiles of two proteins by checking existence of homologs in different species and fitting this combined profile into a statistical model, it is possible to make predictions about the interaction status of two proteins. For this purpose, we apply a collection of pattern recognition techniques on the dataset of combined phylogenetic profiles of protein pairs. Support Vector Machines, Feature Extraction using ReliefF, Naive Bayes Classification, K-Nearest Neighborhood Classification, Decision Trees, and Random Forest Classification are the methods we applied for finding the classification method that best predicts the interaction status of protein pairs. Random Forest Classification outperformed all other methods with a prediction accuracy of 76.93%

Keywords: Protein Interaction Prediction, Phylogenetic Profile, SVM , ReliefF, Decision Trees, Random Forest Classification

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Authors: M. Bohlouli, M. Analoui

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For complete support of Quality of Service, it is better that environment itself predicts resource requirements of a job by using special methods in the Grid computing. The exact and correct prediction causes exact matching of required resources with available resources. After the execution of each job, the used resources will be saved in the active database named "History". At first some of the attributes will be exploit from the main job and according to a defined similarity algorithm the most similar executed job will be exploited from "History" using statistic terms such as linear regression or average, resource requirements will be predicted. The new idea in this research is based on active database and centralized history maintenance. Implementation and testing of the proposed architecture results in accuracy percentage of 96.68% to predict CPU usage of jobs and 91.29% of memory usage and 89.80% of the band width usage.

Keywords: Active Database, Grid Computing, ResourceRequirement Prediction, Scheduling,

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Authors: Haji Ali Haji, Hussein Suleman, Ulrike Rivett

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This paper presents the design, development and evaluation of an application prototype developed to support tuberculosis (TB) patients’ treatment adherence. The system makes use of graphics and voice reminders as opposed to text messaging to encourage patients to follow their medication routine. To evaluate the effect of the prototype applications, participants were given mobile phones on which the reminder system was installed. Thirty-eight people, including TB health workers and patients from Zanzibar, Tanzania, participated in the evaluation exercises. The results indicate that the participants found the mobile image-based application is useful to support TB treatment. All participants understood and interpreted the intended meaning of every image correctly. The study findings revealed that the use of a mobile visualbased application may have potential benefit to support TB patients (both literate and illiterate) in their treatment processes.

Keywords: ICT4D, mobile technology, tuberculosis, visualbased reminder.

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Authors: Qurban A Memon, Shakeel A. Khoja

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Generally, administrative systems in an academic environment are disjoint and support independent queries. The objective in this work is to semantically connect these independent systems to provide support to queries run on the integrated platform. The proposed framework, by enriching educational material in the legacy systems, provides a value-added semantics layer where activities such as annotation, query and reasoning can be carried out to support management requirements. We discuss the development of this ontology framework with a case study of UAE University program administration to show how semantic web technologies can be used by administration to develop student profiles for better academic program management.

Keywords: Academic Program Administration, Semantic Web, Web Technology

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Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Tarik Agouti, Abdessadek Tikniouine

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This paper discusses the intake of combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems, to generate an integrated analysis process dealing with complex multi-criteria decision-making situations. In this context, a multi-agent modeling is presented for decision support systems by combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems. The proposed modeling which consists in performing the multi-agent system (MAS) architecture, procedure and protocol of the negotiation model is elaborated as a decision support tool for complex decision-making environments. Our objective is to take advantage from the multi-agent system which distributes resources and computational capabilities across interconnected agents, and provide a problem modeling in terms of autonomous interacting component-agents. Thus, the identification and evaluation of criteria as well as the evaluation and ranking of alternatives in a decision support situation will be performed by organizing tasks and user preferences between different agents in order to reach the right decision. At the end, an illustrative example is conducted to demonstrate the function and effectiveness of our MAS modeling.

Keywords: Multidimensional Analysis, OLAP Analysis, Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, Multi-Agent System, Decision Support System.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak

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The recent global financial problem urges government to play role in stimulating the economy due to the fact that private sector has little ability to purchase during the recession. A concerned question is whether the increased government spending crowds out private consumption and whether it helps stimulate the economy. If the government spending policy is effective; the private consumption is expected to increase and can compensate the recent extra government expense. In this study, the government spending is categorized into government consumption spending and government capital spending. The study firstly examines consumer consumption along the line with the demand function in microeconomic theory. Three categories of private consumption are used in the study. Those are food consumption, non food consumption, and services consumption. The dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System of the three categories of the private consumption is estimated using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The estimated model indicates the substituting effects (negative impacts) of the government consumption spending on budget shares of private non food consumption and of the government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption, respectively. Nevertheless the result does not necessarily indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the non food and the food consumption means fallen total private consumption. Microeconomic consumer demand analysis clearly indicates changes in component structure of aggregate expenditure in the economy as a result of the government spending policy. The macroeconomic concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (the government consumption spending and the government capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate for their relationship using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The macroeconomic study found no effect of the government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP. Therefore no crowding out effect of the government spending is found on the private consumption but it is ineffective and even inefficient expenditure as found reducing growth of the GDP in the context of Thailand.

Keywords: government consumption spending, governmentcapital spending, private consumption on food, non food, andservices, Vector Error Correction Mechanism, Almost Ideal DemandSystem, substitution effect, complementary effect, consumer demand, aggregate demand

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Authors: Ben-Edigbe J, RahmanR

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Since primary school trips usually start from home, attention by many scholars have been focused on the home end for data gathering. Thereafter category analysis has often been relied upon when predicting school travel demands. In this paper, school end was relied on for data gathering and multivariate regression for future travel demand prediction. 9859 pupils were surveyed by way of questionnaires at 21 primary schools. The town was divided into 5 zones. The study was carried out in Skudai Town, Malaysia. Based on the hypothesis that the number of primary school trip ends are expected to be the same because school trips are fixed, the choice of trip end would have inconsequential effect on the outcome. The study compared empirical data for home and school trip end productions and attractions. Variance from both data results was insignificant, although some claims from home based family survey were found to be grossly exaggerated. Data from the school trip ends was relied on for travel demand prediction because of its completeness. Accessibility, trip attraction and trip production were then related to school trip rates under daylight and dry weather conditions. The paper concluded that, accessibility is an important parameter when predicting demand for future school trip rates.

Keywords: Trip generation, regression analysis, multiple linearregressions

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