Search results for: Numerical probability modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4556

Search results for: Numerical probability modeling

3986 Study of Aerodynamic Characteristics of the Unmanned Aircraft in the Wake

Authors: O. Solovyov, S. Eryomenko, V. Kobrin, V. Chmovzh

Abstract:

The methodology of numerical simulation and calculation of aerodynamic characteristics of aircraft taking into account impact of wake on it has been developed. The results of numerical experiment in comparison with the data obtained in the wind tunnel are presented. Efficiency of methodology of calculation and the reliability of the results is shown.

Keywords: Unmanned aircraft, vortex wake, aerodynamic characteristics.

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3985 Landscape Data Transformation: Categorical Descriptions to Numerical Descriptors

Authors: Dennis A. Apuan

Abstract:

Categorical data based on description of the agricultural landscape imposed some mathematical and analytical limitations. This problem however can be overcome by data transformation through coding scheme and the use of non-parametric multivariate approach. The present study describes data transformation from qualitative to numerical descriptors. In a collection of 103 random soil samples over a 60 hectare field, categorical data were obtained from the following variables: levels of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, pH, hue, chroma, value and data on topography, vegetation type, and the presence of rocks. Categorical data were coded, and Spearman-s rho correlation was then calculated using PAST software ver. 1.78 in which Principal Component Analysis was based. Results revealed successful data transformation, generating 1030 quantitative descriptors. Visualization based on the new set of descriptors showed clear differences among sites, and amount of variation was successfully measured. Possible applications of data transformation are discussed.

Keywords: data transformation, numerical descriptors, principalcomponent analysis

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3984 Numerical Analysis of Wave and Hydrodynamic Models for Energy Balance and Primitive Equations

Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. Humphries, Prungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai, Wiriya Lueangaram

Abstract:

A numerical analysis of wave and hydrodynamic models is used to investigate the influence of WAve and Storm Surge (WASS) in the regional and coastal zones. The numerical analyzed system consists of the WAve Model Cycle 4 (WAMC4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) which used to solve the energy balance and primitive equations respectively. The results of both models presented the incorporated surface wave in the regional zone affected the coastal storm surge zone. Specifically, the results indicated that the WASS generally under the approximation is not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment. The wave–induced surface stress affected the storm surge can significantly improve storm surge prediction. Finally, the calibration of wave module according to the minimum error of the significant wave height (Hs) is not necessarily result in the optimum wave module in the WASS analyzed system for the WASS prediction.

Keywords: energy balance equation, numerical analysis, primitiveequation, storm surge, wave.

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3983 A Bayesian Network Reliability Modeling for FlexRay Systems

Authors: Kuen-Long Leu, Yung-Yuan Chen, Chin-Long Wey, Jwu-E Chen, Chung-Hsien Hsu

Abstract:

The increasing importance of FlexRay systems in automotive domain inspires unceasingly relative researches. One primary issue among researches is to verify the reliability of FlexRay systems either from protocol aspect or from system design aspect. However, research rarely discusses the effect of network topology on the system reliability. In this paper, we will illustrate how to model the reliability of FlexRay systems with various network topologies by a well-known probabilistic reasoning technology, Bayesian Network. In this illustration, we especially investigate the effectiveness of error containment built in star topology and fault-tolerant midpoint synchronization algorithm adopted in FlexRay communication protocol. Through a FlexRay steer-by-wire case study, the influence of different topologies on the failure probability of the FlexRay steerby- wire system is demonstrated. The notable value of this research is to show that the Bayesian Network inference is a powerful and feasible method for the reliability assessment of FlexRay systems.

Keywords: Bayesian Network, FlexRay, fault tolerance, network topology, reliability.

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3982 Unsupervised Feature Selection Using Feature Density Functions

Authors: Mina Alibeigi, Sattar Hashemi, Ali Hamzeh

Abstract:

Since dealing with high dimensional data is computationally complex and sometimes even intractable, recently several feature reductions methods have been developed to reduce the dimensionality of the data in order to simplify the calculation analysis in various applications such as text categorization, signal processing, image retrieval, gene expressions and etc. Among feature reduction techniques, feature selection is one the most popular methods due to the preservation of the original features. In this paper, we propose a new unsupervised feature selection method which will remove redundant features from the original feature space by the use of probability density functions of various features. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method, popular feature selection methods have been implemented and compared. Experimental results on the several datasets derived from UCI repository database, illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods in comparison with the other compared methods in terms of both classification accuracy and the number of selected features.

Keywords: Feature, Feature Selection, Filter, Probability Density Function

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3981 Analysis of a Coupled Hydro-Sedimentological Numerical Model for the Tombolo of GIENS

Authors: Yves Lacroix, Van Van Than, Didier Leandri, Pierre Liardet

Abstract:

The western Tombolo of the Giens peninsula in southern France, known as Almanarre beach, is subject to coastal erosion. We are trying to use computer simulation in order to propose solutions to stop this erosion. Our aim was first to determine the main factors for this erosion and successfully apply a coupled hydrosedimentological numerical model based on observations and measurements that have been performed on the site for decades. We have gathered all available information and data about waves, winds, currents, tides, bathymetry, coastal line, and sediments concerning the site. These have been divided into two sets: one devoted to calibrating a numerical model using Mike 21 software, the other to serve as a reference in order to numerically compare the present situation to what it could be if we implemented different types of underwater constructions. This paper presents the first part of the study: selecting and melting different sources into a coherent data basis, identifying the main erosion factors, and calibrating the coupled software model against the selected reference period. Our results bring calibration of the numerical model with good fitting coefficients. They also show that the winter South-Western storm events conjugated to depressive weather conditions constitute a major factor of erosion, mainly due to wave impact in the northern part of the Almanarre beach. Together, current and wind impact is shown negligible.

Keywords: Almanarre beach, coastal erosion, hydro-sedimentological, numerical model.

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3980 A Generic e-Tutor for Graphical Problems

Authors: B.W. Field

Abstract:

For a variety of safety and economic reasons, engineering undergraduates in Australia have experienced diminishing access to the real hardware that is typically the embodiment of their theoretical studies. This trend will delay the development of practical competence, decrease the ability to model and design, and suppress motivation. The author has attempted to address this concern by creating a software tool that contains both photographic images of real machinery, and sets of graphical modeling 'tools'. Academics from a range of disciplines can use the software to set tutorial tasks, and incorporate feedback comments for a range of student responses. An evaluation of the software demonstrated that students who had solved modeling problems with the aid of the electronic tutor performed significantly better in formal examinations with similar problems. The 2-D graphical diagnostic routines in the Tutor have the potential to be used in a wider range of problem-solving tasks.

Keywords: CAL, graphics, modeling, structural distillation, tutoring.

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3979 Mathematics Anxiety among Male and Female Students

Authors: Wern Lin Yeo, Choo Kim Tan, Sook Ling Lew

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship of anxiety level between male and female undergraduates at a private university in Malaysia. Convenient sampling method used in this study in which the students were selected based on the grouping assigned by the faculty. There were 214 undergraduates who registered the probability courses had participated in this study. Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) was the instrument used in study which used to determine students’ anxiety level towards probability. Reliability and validity of instrument was done before the major study was conducted. In the major study, students were given briefing about the study conducted. Participation of this study was voluntary. Students were given consent form to determine whether they agree to participate in the study. Duration of two weeks was given for students to complete the given online questionnaire. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) to determine the level of anxiety. There were three anxiety level, i.e., low, average and high. Students’ anxiety level was determined based on their scores obtained compared with the mean and standard deviation. If the scores obtained were below mean and standard deviation, the anxiety level was low. If the scores were at below and above the mean and between one standard deviation, the anxiety level was average. If the scores were above the mean and greater than one standard deviation, the anxiety level was high. Results showed that both of genders were having average anxiety level. Among low, average and high anxiety level, frequency of males were found to be higher as compared to females. Hence, the mean values obtained for males (M = 3.62) was higher than females (M = 3.42). In order to be significant of anxiety level among the gender, the p-value should be less than .05. The p-value obtained in this study was .117. However, this value was greater than .05. Thus, there was no significant difference of anxiety level among the gender. In other words, there was no relationship of anxiety level with the gender.

Keywords: Anxiety level, gender, mathematics anxiety, probability and statistics.

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3978 Study of Real Gas Behavior in a Single-Stage Gas Gun

Authors: A. Moradi, S. Khodadadiyan

Abstract:

In this paper, one-dimensional analysis of flow in a single-stage gas gun is conducted. The compressible inviscid flow equations are numerically solved by the second-order Roe TVD method, by using moving boundaries. For investigation of real gas effect the Noble-Able equation is applied. The numerical results are compared with the experimental data to validate the numerical scheme. The results show that with using the Noble-Able equation, the muzzle velocity decreases.

Keywords: Gas gun, Roe, projectile, muzzle velocity

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3977 A Distance Function for Data with Missing Values and Its Application

Authors: Loai AbdAllah, Ilan Shimshoni

Abstract:

Missing values in data are common in real world applications. Since the performance of many data mining algorithms depend critically on it being given a good metric over the input space, we decided in this paper to define a distance function for unlabeled datasets with missing values. We use the Bhattacharyya distance, which measures the similarity of two probability distributions, to define our new distance function. According to this distance, the distance between two points without missing attributes values is simply the Mahalanobis distance. When on the other hand there is a missing value of one of the coordinates, the distance is computed according to the distribution of the missing coordinate. Our distance is general and can be used as part of any algorithm that computes the distance between data points. Because its performance depends strongly on the chosen distance measure, we opted for the k nearest neighbor classifier to evaluate its ability to accurately reflect object similarity. We experimented on standard numerical datasets from the UCI repository from different fields. On these datasets we simulated missing values and compared the performance of the kNN classifier using our distance to other three basic methods. Our  experiments show that kNN using our distance function outperforms the kNN using other methods. Moreover, the runtime performance of our method is only slightly higher than the other methods.

Keywords: Missing values, Distance metric, Bhattacharyya distance.

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3976 Numerical Simulations of Shear Driven Square and Triangular Cavity by Using Lattice Boltzmann Scheme

Authors: A. M. Fudhail, N. A. C. Sidik, M. Z. M. Rody, H. M. Zahir, M.T. Musthafah

Abstract:

In this paper, fluid flow patterns of steady incompressible flow inside shear driven cavity are studied. The numerical simulations are conducted by using lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) for different Reynolds numbers. In order to simulate the flow, derivation of macroscopic hydrodynamics equations from the continuous Boltzmann equation need to be performed. Then, the numerical results of shear-driven flow inside square and triangular cavity are compared with results found in literature review. Present study found that flow patterns are affected by the geometry of the cavity and the Reynolds numbers used.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann method, shear driven cavity, square cavity, triangular cavity.

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3975 Numerical Simulations of Frost Heave Using COMSOL Multiphysics Software in Unsaturated Freezing Soils

Authors: Sara Soltanpour, Adolfo Foriero

Abstract:

Frost heave is arguably the most problematic adverse phenomenon in cold region areas. It is a complex process that depends on heat and water transfer. The coupled physical fields generate considerable heave stresses as well as deformations. In the present study, a coupled Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical (THM) model using COMSOL Multiphysics in frozen unsaturated soils, such as fine sand, is investigated. Particular attention to the frost heave and temperature distribution, as well as the water migrating during soil freezing, is assessed. The results obtained from the numerical simulations are consistent with the results measured in the full-scale tests conducted by Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL).

Keywords: Frost heave, numerical simulations, COMSOL software, unsaturated freezing soil.

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3974 Numerical Simulation of Restenosis in a Stented Coronary Artery

Authors: Weronika Kurowska-Nouyrigat, Jacek Szumbarski

Abstract:

Nowadays, cardiac disease is one of the most common cause of death. Each year almost one million of angioplasty interventions and stents implantations are made all over the world. Unfortunately, in 20-30% of cases neointimal proliferations leads to restenosis occurring within the following period of 3-6 months. Three major factors are believed to contribute mostly to the edge restenosis: (a) mechanical damage of the artery-s wall caused by the stent implantation, (b) interaction between the stent and the blood constituents and (c) endothelial growth stimulation by small (lower that 1.5 Pa) and oscillating wall shear stress. Assuming that this last actor is particularly important, a numerical model of restenosis basing on wall shear stress distribution in the stented artery was elaborated. A numerical simulations of the development of in-stent restenosis have been performed and realistic geometric patterns of a progressing lumen reduction have been obtained

Keywords: Coronary artery disease, coronary blood flow, instent restenosis.

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3973 Numerical Simulation of Minimum Distance Jet Impingement Heat Transfer

Authors: Aman Agarwal, Georg Klepp

Abstract:

Impinging jets are used in various industrial areas as a cooling and drying technique. The current research is concerned with the means of improving the heat transfer for configurations with a minimum distance of the nozzle to the impingement surface. The impingement heat transfer is described using numerical methods over a wide range of parameters for an array of planar jets. These parameters include varying jet flow speed, width of nozzle, distance of nozzle, angle of the jet flow, velocity and geometry of the impingement surface. Normal pressure and shear stress are computed as additional parameters. Using dimensionless characteristic numbers the parameters and the results are correlated to gain generalized equations. The results demonstrate the effect of the investigated parameters on the flow.

Keywords: Heat Transfer Coefficient, Minimum distance jet impingement, Numerical simulation, Dimensionless coefficients.

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3972 A Numerical Algorithm for Positive Solutions of Concave and Convex Elliptic Equation on R2

Authors: Hailong Zhu, Zhaoxiang Li

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate numerically positive solutions of the equation -Δu = λuq+up with Dirichlet boundary condition in a boundary domain ╬® for λ > 0 and 0 < q < 1 < p < 2*, we will compute and visualize the range of λ, this problem achieves a numerical solution.

Keywords: positive solutions, concave-convex, sub-super solution method, pseudo arclength method.

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3971 Human Behavior Modeling in Video Surveillance of Conference Halls

Authors: Nour Charara, Hussein Charara, Omar Abou Khaled, Hani Abdallah, Elena Mugellini

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a human behavior modeling approach in videos scenes. This approach is used to model the normal behaviors in the conference halls. We exploited the Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis technique (PLSA), using the 'Bag-of-Terms' paradigm, as a tool for exploring video data to learn the model by grouping similar activities. Our term vocabulary consists of 3D spatio-temporal patch groups assigned by the direction of motion. Our video representation ensures the spatial information, the object trajectory, and the motion. The main importance of this approach is that it can be adapted to detect abnormal behaviors in order to ensure and enhance human security.

Keywords: Activity modeling, clustering, PLSA, video representation.

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3970 Centralized Cooperative Spectrum Sensing with MIMO in the Reporting Network over κ − μ Fading Channel

Authors: S Hariharan, K Chaitanya, P Muthuchidambaranathan

Abstract:

The IEEE 802.22 working group aims to drive the Digital Video Broadcasting-Terrestrial (DVB-T) bands for data communication to the rural area without interfering the TV broadcast. In this paper, we arrive at a closed-form expression for average detection probability of Fusion center (FC) with multiple antenna over the κ − μ fading channel model. We consider a centralized cooperative multiple antenna network for reporting. The DVB-T samples forwarded by the secondary user (SU) were combined using Maximum ratio combiner at FC, an energy detection is performed to make the decision. The fading effects of the channel degrades the detection probability of the FC, a generalized independent and identically distributed (IID) κ − μ and an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel is considered for reporting and sensing respectively. The proposed system performance is verified through simulation results.

Keywords: IEEE 802.22, Cooperative spectrum sensing, Multiple antenna, κ − μ .

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3969 Modeling and Analysis of Twelve-phase (Multi- Phase) DSTATCOM for Multi-Phase Load Circuits

Authors: Zakir Husain

Abstract:

This paper presents modeling and analysis of 12-phase distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM), which is capable of balancing the source currents in spite of unbalanced loading and phase outages. In addition to balance the supply current, the power factor can be set to a desired value. The theory of instantaneous symmetrical components is used to generate the twelve-phase reference currents. These reference currents are then tracked using current controlled voltage source inverter, operated in a hysteresis band control scheme. An ideal compensator in place of physical realization of the compensator is used. The performance of the proposed DTATCOM is validated through MATLAB simulation and detailed simulation results are given.

Keywords: DSTATCOM, Modeling, Load balancing, Multiphase, Power factor correction.

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3968 Parameter Tuning of Complex Systems Modeled in Agent Based Modeling and Simulation

Authors: Rabia Korkmaz Tan, Şebnem Bora

Abstract:

The major problem encountered when modeling complex systems with agent-based modeling and simulation techniques is the existence of large parameter spaces. A complex system model cannot be expected to reflect the whole of the real system, but by specifying the most appropriate parameters, the actual system can be represented by the model under certain conditions. When the studies conducted in recent years were reviewed, it has been observed that there are few studies for parameter tuning problem in agent based simulations, and these studies have focused on tuning parameters of a single model. In this study, an approach of parameter tuning is proposed by using metaheuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colonies (ABC), Firefly (FA) algorithms. With this hybrid structured study, the parameter tuning problems of the models in the different fields were solved. The new approach offered was tested in two different models, and its achievements in different problems were compared. The simulations and the results reveal that this proposed study is better than the existing parameter tuning studies.

Keywords: Parameter tuning, agent based modeling and simulation, metaheuristic algorithms, complex systems.

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3967 Derivation of Empirical Formulae to Predict Pressure and Impulsive Asymptotes for P-I Diagrams of One-way RC Panels

Authors: Azrul A. Mutalib, Masoud Abedini, Shahrizan Baharom, Hong Hao

Abstract:

There are only limited studies that directly correlate the increase in reinforced concrete (RC) panel structural capacities in resisting the blast loads with different RC panel structural properties in terms of blast loading characteristics, RC panel dimensions, steel reinforcement ratio and concrete material strength. In this paper, numerical analyses of dynamic response and damage of the one-way RC panel to blast loads are carried out using the commercial software LS-DYNA. A series of simulations are performed to predict the blast response and damage of columns with different level and magnitude of blast loads. The numerical results are used to develop pressureimpulse (P-I) diagrams of one-way RC panels. Based on the numerical results, the empirical formulae are derived to calculate the pressure and impulse asymptotes of the P-I diagrams of RC panels. The results presented in this paper can be used to construct P-I diagrams of RC panels with different concrete and reinforcement properties. The P-I diagrams are very useful to assess panel capacities in resisting different blast loads.

Keywords: One-way reinforced concrete (RC) panels, Explosive loads, LS-DYNA Software, Pressure-Impulse (P-I) diagram, Numerical.

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3966 Numerical Prediction of NOX in the Exhaust of a Compression Ignition Engine

Authors: A. A. Pawar, R. R. Kulkarni

Abstract:

For numerical prediction of the NOX in the exhaust of a compression ignition engine a model was developed by considering the parameter equivalence ratio. This model was validated by comparing the predicted results of NOX with experimental ones. The ultimate aim of the work was to access the applicability, robustness and performance of the improved NOX model against other NOX models.

Keywords: Biodiesel fueled engine, equivalence ratio, Compression ignition engine, exhausts gas temperature, NOX formation.

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3965 Performance Analysis of the Time-Based and Periodogram-Based Energy Detector for Spectrum Sensing

Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

Abstract:

Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing.

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3964 Stability Analysis for an Extended Model of the Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Thyroid Axis

Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

Abstract:

We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid homoeostatic mechanism in endocrine system. We introduce to this system two types of couplings and delay. In our model, feedback controls the secretion of thyroid hormones and delay reflects time lags required for transportation of the hormones. The influence of delayed feedback on the stability behaviour of the system is discussed. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. This system of equations describes normal activity of the thyroid and also a couple of types of malfunctions (e.g. hyperthyroidism).

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, ordinary differential equations, endocrine system, stability analysis.

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3963 Noise-Improved Signal Detection in Nonlinear Threshold Systems

Authors: Youguo Wang, Lenan Wu

Abstract:

We discuss the signal detection through nonlinear threshold systems. The detection performance is assessed by the probability of error Per . We establish that: (1) when the signal is complete suprathreshold, noise always degrades the signal detection both in the single threshold system and in the parallel array of threshold devices. (2) When the signal is a little subthreshold, noise degrades signal detection in the single threshold system. But in the parallel array, noise can improve signal detection, i.e., stochastic resonance (SR) exists in the array. (3) When the signal is predominant subthreshold, noise always can improve signal detection and SR always exists not only in the single threshold system but also in the parallel array. (4) Array can improve signal detection by raising the number of threshold devices. These results extend further the applicability of SR in signal detection.

Keywords: Probability of error, signal detection, stochasticresonance, threshold system.

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3962 Effects of Stream Tube Numbers on Flow and Sediments using GSTARS-3-A Case Study of the Karkheh Reservoir Dam in Western Dezful

Authors: M. H. Ayazi, M. Qamari, N.Hedayat, A. Rohani

Abstract:

Simulation of the flow and sedimentation process in the reservoir dams can be made by two methods of physical and mathematical modeling. The study area was within a region which ranged from the Jelogir hydrometric station to the Karkheh reservoir dam aimed at investigating the effects of stream tubes on the GSTARS-3 model behavior. The methodologies was to run the model based on 5 stream tubes in order to observe the influence of each scenario on longitudinal profiles, cross-section, flow velocity and bed load sediment size. Results further suggest that the use of two stream tubes or more which result in the semi-two-dimensional model will yield relatively closer results to the observational data than a singular stream tube modeling. Moreover, the results of modeling with three stream tubes shown to yield a relatively close results with the observational data. The overall conclusion of the paper is with applying various stream tubes; it would be possible to yield a significant influence on the modeling behavior Vis-a Vis the bed load sediment size.

Keywords: Karkheh, stream tubes, GSTARS-3 Model, Jelogir hydrometric station.

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3961 Development of a Numerical Model to Predict Wear in Grouted Connections for Offshore Wind Turbine Generators

Authors: Paul Dallyn, Ashraf El-Hamalawi, Alessandro Palmeri, Bob Knight

Abstract:

In order to better understand the long term implications of the grout wear failure mode in large-diameter plainsided grouted connections, a numerical model has been developed and calibrated that can take advantage of existing operational plant data to predict the wear accumulation for the actual load conditions experienced over a given period, thus limiting the requirement for expensive monitoring systems. This model has been derived and calibrated based on site structural condition monitoring (SCM) data and supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA) data for two operational wind turbine generator substructures afflicted with this challenge, along with experimentally derived wear rates.

Keywords: Grouted Connection, Numerical Model, Offshore Structure, Wear, Wind Energy.

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3960 Effect of Type of Pile and Its Installation Method on Pile Bearing Capacity by Physical Modeling in Frustum Confining Vessel

Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, M. Mortezaee

Abstract:

Various factors such as the method of installation, the pile type, the pile material and the pile shape, can affect the final bearing capacity of a pile executed in the soil; among them, the method of installation is of special importance. The physical modeling is among the best options in the laboratory study of the piles behavior. Therefore, the current paper first presents and reviews the frustum confining vessel (FCV) as a suitable tool for physical modeling of deep foundations. Then, by describing the loading tests of two open-ended and closed-end steel piles, each of which has been performed in two methods, “with displacement" and "without displacement", the effect of end conditions and installation method on the final bearing capacity of the pile is investigated. The soil used in the current paper is silty sand of Firuzkuh, Iran. The results of the experiments show that in general the without displacement installation method has a larger bearing capacity in both piles, and in a specific method of installation the closed ended pile shows a slightly higher bearing capacity.

Keywords: physical modeling, frustum confining vessel, pile, bearing capacity, installation method

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3959 Production Throughput Modeling under Five Uncertain Variables Using Bayesian Inference

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

Abstract:

Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

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3958 Impacts of Biofuels on Air Quality: Northern Portugal Case Study

Authors: Ribeiro I., Tavares A.M., Sá E., Lopes M.

Abstract:

The increased use of biodiesel implies variations on both greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions. Some studies point out that the use of biodiesel blends on diesel can help in controlling air pollution and promote a reduction of CO2 emissions. Reductions on PM, SO2, VOC and CO emissions are also expected, however NOx emissions may increase, which may potentiate O3 formation. This work aims to assess the impact of the biodiesel use on air quality, through a numerical modeling study, taking the Northern region of Portugal as a case study. The emission scenarios are focused on 2008 (baseline year) and 2020 (target year of Renewable Energy Directive-RED) and on three biodiesel blends (B0, B10 and B20). In a general way the use of biodiesel by 2020 will reduce the CO2 and air pollutants emissions in the Northern Portugal, improving air quality. However it will be in a very small extension.

Keywords: air quality, biodiesel, emission scenarios, RED.

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3957 A New Method to Solve a Non Linear Differential System

Authors: Seifedine Kadry

Abstract:

In this article, our objective is the analysis of the resolution of non-linear differential systems by combining Newton and Continuation (N-C) method. The iterative numerical methods converge where the initial condition is chosen close to the exact solution. The question of choosing the initial condition is answered by N-C method.

Keywords: Continuation Method, Newton Method, Finite Difference Method, Numerical Analysis and Non-Linear partial Differential Equation.

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