Search results for: Seismic Early Warning System

Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany

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Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.

Keywords: Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.

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Authors: Hamidou Diallo, Marianne Guille

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This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS) and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay its debts and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. For AEs, the evolution of the proportion of countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by a relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.

Keywords: GDP growth, early warning system, advanced economies, developing countries.

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Authors: Keivan Abdollahi, Alireza Mortezaei

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The main objective of seismic rehabilitation in the foundations is decreasing the range of horizontal and vertical vibrations and omitting high frequencies contents under the seismic loading. In this regard, the advantages of micropiles network is utilized. Reduction in vibration range of foundation can be achieved by using high dynamic rigidness module such as deep foundations. In addition, natural frequency of pile and soil system increases in regard to rising of system rigidness. Accordingly, the main strategy is decreasing of horizontal and vertical seismic vibrations of the structure. In this case, considering the impact of foundation, pile and improved soil foundation is a primary concern. Therefore, in this paper, effective factors are studied on the seismic rehabilitation of foundations applying network micropiles in sandy soils with nonlinear reaction.

Keywords: Micropile network, rehabilitation, vibration, seismic load.

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Authors: Kaan Yamanturk, Cihan Dogruoz

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Seismic isolators have been utilized around the world to protect the structures, nonstructural components and contents from the damaging effects of earthquakes. In Structural Engineering, seismic isolation is used for protecting buildings and its vibration-sensitive contents from earthquakes. Seismic isolation is a passive control system that lowers effective earthquake forces by utilizing flexible bearings. One of the most significant isolation systems is seismic isolators. In this paper, double pendulum type Teflon coated seismic isolators utilized in a city hospital project by Guris Construction and Engineering Co. Inc, located in Kutahya, Turkey, have been investigated. Totally, 498 seismic isolators were applied in the project. These isolators are double friction pendulum type seismic isolation devices. The review of current practices is also examined in this study. The focus of this study is related to the application of passive seismic isolation systems for buildings as practiced in Kutahya City Hospital Project. Based on the study, the acceleration at the top floor will be 0.18 g and it will decrease 0.01 g in every floor. Therefore, seismic isolators are very important for buildings located in earthquake zones.

Keywords: Maximum considered earthquake, moment resisting frame, seismic isolator, seismic design.

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Authors: Chang-Guk Sun, Jin-Soo Shin

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In this study, an inland metropolitan area, Gwangju, in Korea was selected to assess the amplification potential of earthquake motion and provide the information for regional seismic countermeasure. A geographic information system-based expert system was implemented for reliably predicting the spatial geotechnical layers in the entire region of interesting by building a geo-knowledge database. Particularly, the database consists of the existing boring data gathered from the prior geotechnical projects and the surface geo-knowledge data acquired from the site visit. For practical application of the geo-knowledge database to estimate the earthquake hazard potential related to site amplification effects at the study area, seismic zoning maps on geotechnical parameters, such as the bedrock depth and the site period, were created within GIS framework. In addition, seismic zonation of site classification was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design at any site in the study area. KeywordsEarthquake hazard, geo-knowledge, geographic information system, seismic zonation, site period.

Keywords: Earthquake hazard, geo-knowledge, geographic information system, seismic zonation, site period.

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Authors: Y. P. Wang, J. K. Chen, C. H. Lee, G. H. Huang, M. C. Wang, S. W. Chen, Y. T. Kuan, H. C. Lin, C. Y. Huang, W. H. Liang, W. C. Lin, H. C. Yu

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The hi-tech industries in the Science Park at southern Taiwan were heavily damaged by a strong earthquake early 2016. The financial loss in this event was attributed primarily to the automated stocker system handling fully processed products, and recovery of the automated stocker system from the aftermath proved to contribute major lead time. Therefore, development of effective means for protection of stockers against earthquakes has become the highest priority for risk minimization and business continuity. This study proposes to mitigate the seismic response of the stockers by introducing viscous fluid dampers in between the ceiling and the top of the stockers. The stocker is expected to vibrate less violently with a passive control force on top. Linear damper is considered in this application with an optimal damping coefficient determined from a preliminary parametric study. The damper is small in size in comparison with those adopted for building or bridge applications. Component test of the dampers has been carried out to make sure they meet the design requirement. Shake table tests have been further conducted to verify the proposed scheme under realistic earthquake conditions. Encouraging results have been achieved by effectively reducing the seismic responses of up to 60% and preventing the FOUPs from falling off the shelves that would otherwise be the case if left unprotected. Effectiveness of adopting a viscous fluid damper for seismic control of the stocker on top against the ceiling has been confirmed. This technique has been adopted by Macronix International Co., LTD for seismic retrofit of existing stockers. Demonstrative projects on the application of the proposed technique are planned underway for other companies in the display industry as well.

Keywords: Hi-tech industries, seismic protection, automated stocker system, viscous fluid damper.

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Authors: C. Pacheco, A. Cipriano

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A new concept of response system is proposed for filling the gap that exists in reducing vulnerability during immediate response to natural disasters. Real Time Early Response Systems (RTERSs) incorporate real time information as feedback data for closing control loop and for generating real time situation assessment. A review of the state of the art on works that fit the concept of RTERS is presented, and it is found that they are mainly focused on manmade disasters. At the same time, in response phase of natural disaster management many works are involved in creating early warning systems, but just few efforts have been put on deciding what to do once an alarm is activated. In this context a RTERS arises as a useful tool for supporting people in their decision making process during natural disasters after an event is detected, and also as an innovative context for applying well-known automation technologies and automatic control concepts and tools.

Keywords: Disaster management, emergency response system, natural disasters, real time.

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Authors: Babak H. Mamamqani, Alimohammad Entezarmahdi

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There are many researches on parameters affecting seismic behavior of steel moment frames. Great deal of these researches considers cover plate connections with or without haunch and direct beam to column connection for exterior columns. Also there are experimental results for interior connections with equal beam depth on both sides but not much research has been performed on the seismic behavior of joints with unequal beam depth. Based on previous experimental results, a series of companion analyses have been set up considering different beam height and connection detailing configuration to investigate the seismic behavior of the connections. Results of this study indicate that when the differences between beams height on both side increases, use of haunch connection system leads to significant improvement in the seismic response whereas other configurations did not provide satisfying results.

Keywords: Analytical modeling, Haunch connection, Seismic design, Unequal beam depth.

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Authors: Mohd Hafiz Musa, Zulfadhli Hasan Adli, M . N . Khairul Arifin

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In seismic survey, the information regarding the velocity of compression wave (Vp) as well as shear wave (Vs) are very useful especially during the seismic interpretation. Previous studies showed that both Vp and Vs determined by above methods are totally different with respect to each other but offered good approximation. In this study, both Vp and Vs of consolidated granite rock were studied by using ultrasonic testing method and seismic refraction method. In ultrasonic testing, two different condition of rock are used which is dry and wet. The differences between Vp and Vs getting by using ultrasonic testing and seismic refraction were investigated and studied. The effect of water content in granite rock towards the value of Vp and Vs during ultrasonic testing are also measured. Within this work, the tolerance of the differences between the velocity of seismic wave getting from ultrasonic testing and the velocity of seismic wave getting from seismic refraction are also measured and investigated.

Keywords: Compressional wave, Granite, Shear Wave, Velocity

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Authors: Kahil Amar, Boukais Said, Kezmane Ali, Hamizi Mohand, Hannachi Naceur Eddine

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The principle of the seismic performance evaluation methods is to provide a measure of capability for a building or set of buildings to be damaged by an earthquake. The common objective of many of these methods is to supply classification criteria. The purpose of this study is to present a method for assessing the seismic performance of structures, based on Pushover method; we are particularly interested in reinforced concrete frame structures, which represent a significant percentage of damaged structures after a seismic event. The work is based on the characterization of seismic movement of the various earthquake zones in terms of PGA and PGD that is obtained by means of SIMQK_GR and PRISM software and the correlation between the points of performance and the scalar characterizing the earthquakes will developed.

Keywords: Seismic performance, Pushover method, characterization of seismic motion, harmfulness of the seismic signal

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Authors: Zi-Ang Li, Mu-Xuan Tao

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During the process of the industrialization of steel structure housing, a composite structural system with separated gravity and lateral resistant systems has been applied in engineering practices, which consists of composite frame with hinged beam-column joints, steel brace and RC shear wall. As an attempt in steel structural system area, seismic performance evaluation of the separated composite structure is important for further application in steel housing. This paper focuses on the seismic performance comparison of the separated composite structural system and traditional steel frame-shear wall system under the same inter-story drift ratio (IDR) provision limit. The same architectural layout of a high-rise building is designed as two different structural systems at the same IDR level, and finite element analysis using pushover method is carried out. Static pushover analysis implies that the separated structural system exhibits different lateral deformation mode and failure mechanism with traditional steel frame-shear wall system. Different indexes are adopted and discussed in seismic performance evaluation, including IDR, safe factor (SF), shear wall damage, etc. The performance under maximum considered earthquake (MCE) demand spectrum shows that the shear wall damage of two structural systems are similar; the separated composite structural system exhibits less plastic hinges; and the SF index value of the separated composite structural system is higher than the steel frame shear wall structural system.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, seismic performance evaluation, separated composite structural system, static pushover analysis.

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Authors: Mahmoud Miri, Abdolreza Zare, Hossein Abbas zadeh

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The knee bracing steel frame (KBF) is a new kind of energy dissipating frame, which combines excellent ductility and lateral stiffness. In this framing system, a special form of diagonal brace connected to a knee element instead of beam-column joint, is investigated. Recently, a similar system was proposed and named as chevron knee bracing system (CKB) which in comparison with the former system has a better energy absorption characteristic and at the same time retains the elastic nature of the structures. Knee bracing can provide a stiffer bracing system but reduces the ductility of the steel frame. Chevron knee bracing can be employed to provide the desired ductility level for a design. In this article, relation between seismic performance and structural parameters of the two above mentioned systems are investigated and compared. Frames with similar dimensions but various heights in both systems are designed according to Iranian code of practice for seismic resistant design of building, and then based on a non-linear push over static analysis; the seismic parameters such as behavior factor and performance levels are compared.

Keywords: Seismic behaviour, ordinary knee bracing frame, Chevron knee brace, behaviour factor, performance level.

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Authors: M. Benbrahim, K. Benjelloun, A. Ibenbrahim, M. Kasmi, E. Ardil

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The automatic discrimination of seismic signals is an important practical goal for the earth-science observatories due to the large amount of information that they receive continuously. An essential discrimination task is to allocate the incoming signal to a group associated with the kind of physical phenomena producing it. In this paper, we present new techniques for seismic signals classification: local, regional and global discrimination. These techniques were tested on seismic signals from the data base of the National Geophysical Institute of the Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique (Morocco) by using the Moroccan software for seismic signals analysis.

Keywords: Seismic signals, local discrimination, regionaldiscrimination, global discrimination, Moroccan software for seismicsignals analysis.

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Authors: E. Dabbour, S. M. Easa

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Most of the collision warning systems currently available in the automotive market are mainly designed to warn against imminent rear-end and lane-changing collisions. No collision warning system is commercially available to warn against imminent turning collisions at intersections, especially for left-turn collisions when a driver attempts to make a left-turn at either a signalized or non-signalized intersection, conflicting with the path of other approaching vehicles traveling on the opposite-direction traffic stream. One of the major factors that lead to left-turn collisions is the human error and misjudgment of the driver of the turning vehicle when perceiving the speed and acceleration of other vehicles traveling on the opposite-direction traffic stream; therefore, using a properly-designed collision warning system will likely reduce, or even eliminate, this type of collisions by reducing human error. This paper introduces perceptual framework for a proposed collision warning system that can detect imminent left-turn collisions at intersections. The system utilizes a commercially-available detection sensor (either a radar sensor or a laser detector) to detect approaching vehicles traveling on the opposite-direction traffic stream and calculate their speeds and acceleration rates to estimate the time-tocollision and compare that time to the time required for the turning vehicle to clear the intersection. When calculating the time required for the turning vehicle to clear the intersection, consideration is given to the perception-reaction time of the driver of the turning vehicle, which is the time required by the driver to perceive the message given by the warning system and react to it by engaging the throttle. A regression model was developed to estimate perception-reaction time based on age and gender of the driver of the host vehicle. Desired acceleration rate selected by the driver of the turning vehicle, when making the left-turn movement, is another human factor that is considered by the system. Another regression model was developed to estimate the acceleration rate selected by the driver of the turning vehicle based on driver-s age and gender as well as on the location and speed of the nearest approaching vehicle along with the maximum acceleration rate provided by the mechanical characteristics of the turning vehicle. By comparing time-to-collision with the time required for the turning vehicle to clear the intersection, the system displays a message to the driver of the turning vehicle when departure is safe. An application example is provided to illustrate the logic algorithm of the proposed system.

Keywords: Collision warning systems, intelligent transportationsystems, vehicle safety.

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Authors: Do-Kyu, Hwang, Ho-Young Kim, Ho-Hyeoung Choi, Gi-Beom Park, Jae-Hoon Lee

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Currently there are many use of threaded reinforcing bars in construction fields because those do not need additional screw processing when connecting reinforcing bar by threaded coupler. In this study, reinforced concrete bridge piers using threaded rebar coupler system at the plastic hinge area were tested to evaluate seismic performance. The test results showed that threads of the threaded rebar coupler system could be loosened while under tension-compression cyclic loading because tolerance and rib face angle of a threaded rebar coupler system are greater than that of a conventional ribbed rebar coupler system. As a result, cracks were concentrated just outside of the mechanical coupler and stiffness of reinforced concrete bridge pier decreased. Therefore, it is recommended that connection ratio of mechanical couplers in one section shall be below 50% in order that cracks are not concentrated just outside of the mechanical coupler. Also, reduced stiffness of the specimen should be considered when using the threaded rebar coupler system.

Keywords: Reinforced concrete column, seismic performance, threaded rebar coupler, threaded reinforcing bar.

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Authors: Yuan-Hong Ho, Chiung-Ju Huang

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This article presents a monitoring indicators system that predicts whether a local government in Taiwan is heading for fiscal distress and identifies a suitable fiscal policy that would allow the local government to achieve fiscal balance in the long run. This system is relevant to stockholders’ interest, simple for national audit bodies to use, and provides an early warning of fiscal distress that allows preventative action to be taken.

Keywords: Fiscal distress, fiscal health, monitoring signals, 10-point scale.

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Authors: Jelena R. Pejović, Nina N. Serdar

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This paper presents an analysis of the “Performance-Based” seismic design method, in order to overcome the perceived disadvantages and limitations of the existing seismic design approach based on force, in engineering practice. Bearing in mind, the specificity of the earthquake as a load and the fact that the seismic resistance of the structures solely depends on its behaviour in the nonlinear field, traditional seismic design approach based on force and linear analysis is not adequate. “Performance-Based” seismic design method is based on nonlinear analysis and can be used in everyday engineering practice. This paper presents the application of this method to eight-story high reinforced concrete building with combined structural system (reinforced concrete frame structural system in one direction and reinforced concrete ductile wall system in other direction). The nonlinear time-history analysis is performed on the spatial model of the structure using program Perform 3D, where the structure is exposed to forty real earthquake records. For considered building, large number of results were obtained. It was concluded that using this method we could, with a high degree of reliability, evaluate structural behavior under earthquake. It is obtained significant differences in the response of structures to various earthquake records. Also analysis showed that frame structural system had not performed well at the effect of earthquake records on soil like sand and gravel, while a ductile wall system had a satisfactory behavior on different types of soils.

Keywords: Ductile wall, frame system, nonlinear time-history analysis, performance-based methodology, RC building.

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Authors: Nidhi Sharma, V. K. Banga

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Nowadays, driving support systems, such as car navigation systems, are getting common, and they support drivers in several aspects. It is important for driving support systems to detect status of driver's consciousness. Particularly, detecting driver's drowsiness could prevent drivers from collisions caused by drowsy driving. In this paper, we discuss the various artificial detection methods for detecting driver's drowsiness processing technique. This system is based on facial images analysis for warning the driver of drowsiness or in attention to prevent traffic accidents.

Keywords: Neuro-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-FelixModel, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model, GA Based Model, GeneticAlgorithm.

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Authors: Maria S. Trimintziou, Michael G. Sakellariou, Prodromos N. Psarropoulos

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The current study focuses on the seismic design of offshore pipelines against active faults. After an extensive literature review of the provisions of the seismic norms worldwide and of the available analytical methods, the study simulates numerically (through finite-element modeling and strain-based criteria) the distress of offshore pipelines subjected to PGDs induced by active normal and reverse seismic faults at the seabed. Factors, such as the geometrical properties of the fault, the mechanical properties of the ruptured soil formations, and the pipeline characteristics, are examined. After some interesting conclusions regarding the seismic vulnerability of offshore pipelines, potential cost-effective mitigation measures are proposed taking into account constructability issues.

Keywords: Active faults, Seismic design, offshore pipelines.

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Authors: Carlos Mendez Galindo, Toshiro Hayashikawa, Javier Gil Belda

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This paper investigates the effectiveness of the use of seismic isolation devices on the overall 3D seismic response of curved highway viaducts with an emphasis on expansion joints. Furthermore, an evaluation of the effectiveness of the use of cable restrainers is presented. For this purpose, the bridge seismic performance has been evaluated on four different radii of curvature, considering two cases: restrained and unrestrained curved viaducts. Depending on the radius of curvature, three-dimensional non-linear dynamic analysis shows the vulnerability of curved viaducts to pounding and deck unseating damage. In this study, the efficiency of using LRB supports combined with cable restrainers on curved viaducts is demonstrated, not only by reducing in all cases the possible damage, but also by providing a similar behavior in the viaducts despite of curvature radius.

Keywords: Nonlinear dynamic response, seismic design, seismic isolation, unseating prevention system.

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Authors: Birendra Kumar Bohara

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The hillside building shows different behavior as a flat ground building in lateral loading. Especially the step back building in the sloping ground has different seismic behavior. The hillside building 3D model having different types of structural elements is introduced and analyzed with a seismic effect. The structural elements such as the shear wall, steel, and concrete bracing are used to resist the earthquake load and compared with without using any shear wall and bracing system. The X, inverted V, and diagonal bracing are used. The total nine models are prepared in ETABs finite element coding software. The linear dynamic analysis is the response spectrum analysis (RSA) carried out to study dynamic behaviors in means of top story displacement, story drift, fundamental time period, story stiffness, and story shear. The results are analyzed and made some decisions based on seismic performance. It is also observed that it is better to use the X bracing system for lateral load resisting elements.

Keywords: Step-back buildings, bracing system, hill side buildings, response spectrum method.

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Authors: Takumi Ito, Kurumi Kurokawa, Dong Hang Wu, Takashi Nagumo, Haruhiko Hirata

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The structural system of wooden house by two-by-four method is widely adopted in any countries, and a various type of vibration control system for building structures has been developed on country with frequent earthquake. In this study, a vibration control device called “Scaling Frame” (SF) is suggested, and which is applied to wooden two-by-four method structures. This paper performs the experimental study to investigate the restoring force characteristics of two-by-four with SF device installed. The seismic resistant performance is estimated experimentally, and also the applicability and effectiveness are discussing.

Keywords: Two-by-four method, seismic vibration control, horizontally loading test, restoring force characteristics.

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Authors: Mohammed Benbrahim, Adil Daoudi, Khalid Benjelloun, Aomar Ibenbrahim

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The automatic discrimination of seismic signals is an important practical goal for earth-science observatories due to the large amount of information that they receive continuously. An essential discrimination task is to allocate the incoming signal to a group associated with the kind of physical phenomena producing it. In this paper, two classes of seismic signals recorded routinely in geophysical laboratory of the National Center for Scientific and Technical Research in Morocco are considered. They correspond to signals associated to local earthquakes and chemical explosions. The approach adopted for the development of an automatic discrimination system is a modular system composed by three blocs: 1) Representation, 2) Dimensionality reduction and 3) Classification. The originality of our work consists in the use of a new wavelet called "modified Mexican hat wavelet" in the representation stage. For the dimensionality reduction, we propose a new algorithm based on the random projection and the principal component analysis.

Keywords: Seismic signals, Wavelets, Dimensionality reduction, Artificial neural networks, Classification.

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Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

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Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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Authors: Roberto Sabatini, Alessandro Gardi, Mark A. Richardson

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The availability of powerful eye-safe laser sources and the recent advancements in electro-optical and mechanical beam-steering components have allowed laser-based Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) to become a promising technology for obstacle warning and avoidance in a variety of manned and unmanned aircraft applications. LIDAR outstanding angular resolution and accuracy characteristics are coupled to its good detection performance in a wide range of incidence angles and weather conditions, providing an ideal obstacle avoidance solution, which is especially attractive in low-level flying platforms such as helicopters and small-to-medium size Unmanned Aircraft (UA). The Laser Obstacle Avoidance Marconi (LOAM) system is one of such systems, which was jointly developed and tested by SELEX-ES and the Italian Air Force Research and Flight Test Centre. The system was originally conceived for military rotorcraft platforms and, in this paper, we briefly review the previous work and discuss in more details some of the key development activities required for integration of LOAM on UA platforms. The main hardware and software design features of this LOAM variant are presented, including a brief description of the system interfaces and sensor characteristics, together with the system performance models and data processing algorithms for obstacle detection, classification and avoidance. In particular, the paper focuses on the algorithm proposed for optimal avoidance trajectory generation in UA applications.

Keywords: LIDAR, Low-Level Flight, Nap-of-the-Earth Flight, Near Infra-Red, Obstacle Avoidance, Obstacle Detection, Obstacle Warning System, Sense and Avoid, Trajectory Optimisation, Unmanned Aircraft.

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Authors: S. A. Razavian Amrei, G.Ghodrati Amiri, D. Rezaei

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This paper presents probabilistic horizontal seismic hazard assessment of Naghan, Iran. It displays the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) for the return period of 475, 950 and 2475 years. The output of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on peak ground acceleration (PGA), which is the most common criterion in designing of buildings. A catalogue of seismic events that includes both historical and instrumental events was developed and covers the period from 840 to 2009. The seismic sources that affect the hazard in Naghan were identified within the radius of 200 km and the recurrence relationships of these sources were generated by Kijko and Sellevoll. Finally Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) has been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Naghan for different hazard levels by using SEISRISK III software.

Keywords: Seismic Hazard Assessment, Seismicity Parameters, PGA, Naghan, Iran

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Authors: Bryce Benson, Sooin Lee, Ashwin Belle

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Unrecognized or delayed identification of patient deterioration is a key cause of in-hospitals adverse events. Clinicians rely on vital signs monitoring to recognize patient deterioration. However, due to ever increasing nursing workloads and the manual effort required, vital signs tend to be measured and recorded intermittently, and inconsistently causing large gaps during patient monitoring. Additionally, during deterioration, the body’s autonomic nervous system activates compensatory mechanisms causing the vital signs to be lagging indicators of underlying hemodynamic decline. This study analyzes the predictive efficacy of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability (AHI) system, an automated tool that was designed to help clinicians in early identification of deteriorating patients. The lead time analysis in this retrospective observational study assesses how far in advance AHI predicted deterioration prior to the start of an episode of hemodynamic instability (HI) becoming evident through vital signs? Results indicate that of the 362 episodes of HI in this study, 308 episodes (85%) were correctly predicted by the AHI system with a median lead time of 57 minutes and an average of 4 hours (240.5 minutes). Of the 54 episodes not predicted, AHI detected 45 of them while the episode of HI was ongoing. Of the 9 undetected, 5 were not detected by AHI due to either missing or noisy input ECG data during the episode of HI. In total, AHI was able to either predict or detect 98.9% of all episodes of HI in this study. These results suggest that AHI could provide an additional ‘pair of eyes’ on patients, continuously filling the monitoring gaps and consequently giving the patient care team the ability to be far more proactive in patient monitoring and adverse event management.

Keywords: Clinical deterioration prediction, decision support system, early warning system, hemodynamic status, physiologic monitoring.

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is a fundamental issue even for moderate to low seismic hazard regions. This fact is even more important when dealing with old structures such as those located in Annaba city (Algeria), which the majority of dates back to the French colonial era from 1830. This category of buildings is in high risk due to their highly degradation state, heterogeneous materials and intrusive modifications to structural and non-structural elements. Furthermore, they are usually shelter a dense population, which is exposed to such risk. In order to undertake a suitable seismic risk mitigation strategies and reinforcement process for such structures, it is essential to estimate their seismic resistance capacity at a large scale. In this sense, two seismic vulnerability index methods and damage estimation have been adapted and applied to a pilot-scale building area located in the moderate seismic hazard region of Annaba city: The first one based on the EMS-98 building typologies, and the second one derived from the Italian GNDT approach. To perform this task, the authors took the advantage of an existing data survey previously performed for other purposes. The results obtained from the application of the two methods were integrated and compared using a geographic information system tool (GIS), with the ultimate goal of supporting the city council of Annaba for the implementation of risk mitigation and emergency planning strategies.

Keywords: Annaba city, EMS98 concept, GNDT method, old city center, seismic vulnerability index, unreinforced masonry buildings.

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Authors: Z.D. Yang, E.S.S. Lam

Abstract:

Considering the merits and limitations of energy dissipation system, seismic isolation system and suspension system, a new earthquake resistant system is proposed and is demonstrated numerically through a frame-core structure. Base isolators and story isolators are installed in the proposed system. The former “isolates" the frame from the foundation and the latter “separates" the frame from the center core. Equations of motion are formulated to study the response of the proposed structural system to strong earthquake motion. As compared with the fixed-base building system, the proposed structural system shows substantial reduction on structural response.

Keywords: Base Isolator, Core-tube, Isolated frame, Seismic Mitigation, Story Isolator

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Authors: J. García-Pérez

Abstract:

An approach to compute optimum seismic design parameters is presented. It is based on the optimization of the expected present value of the total cost, which includes the initial cost of structures as well as the cost due to earthquakes. Different types of seismicity models are considered, including one for characteristic earthquakes. Uncertainties are included in some variables to observe the influence on optimum values. Optimum seismic design coefficients are computed for three different structural types representing high, medium and low rise buildings, located near and far from the seismic sources. Ordinary and important structures are considered in the analysis. The results of optimum values show an important influence of seismicity models as well as of uncertainties on the variables.

Keywords: Importance factors, optimum parameters, seismic losses, seismic risk, total cost.

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