Search results for: MOV - protected series capacitors
993 2D Graphical Analysis of Wastewater Influent Capacity Time Series
Authors: Monika Chuchro, Maciej Dwornik
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The extraction of meaningful information from image could be an alternative method for time series analysis. In this paper, we propose a graphical analysis of time series grouped into table with adjusted colour scale for numerical values. The advantages of this method are also discussed. The proposed method is easy to understand and is flexible to implement the standard methods of pattern recognition and verification, especially for noisy environmental data.Keywords: graphical analysis, time series, seasonality, noisy environmental data
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1455992 The Relations between the Fractal Properties of the River Networks and the River Flow Time Series
Authors: M. H. Fattahi, H. Jahangiri
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All the geophysical phenomena including river networks and flow time series are fractal events inherently and fractal patterns can be investigated through their behaviors. A non-linear system like a river basin can well be analyzed by a non-linear measure such as the fractal analysis. A bilateral study is held on the fractal properties of the river network and the river flow time series. A moving window technique is utilized to scan the fractal properties of them. Results depict both events follow the same strategy regarding to the fractal properties. Both the river network and the time series fractal dimension tend to saturate in a distinct value.Keywords: river flow time series, fractal, river networks
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1692991 A New Hybrid Optimization Method for Optimum Distribution Capacitor Planning
Authors: A. R. Seifi
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This work presents a new algorithm based on a combination of fuzzy (FUZ), Dynamic Programming (DP), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach for capacitor allocation in distribution feeders. The problem formulation considers two distinct objectives related to total cost of power loss and total cost of capacitors including the purchase and installation costs. The novel formulation is a multi-objective and non-differentiable optimization problem. The proposed method of this article uses fuzzy reasoning for sitting of capacitors in radial distribution feeders, DP for sizing and finally GA for finding the optimum shape of membership functions which are used in fuzzy reasoning stage. The proposed method has been implemented in a software package and its effectiveness has been verified through a 9-bus radial distribution feeder for the sake of conclusions supports. A comparison has been done among the proposed method of this paper and similar methods in other research works that shows the effectiveness of the proposed method of this paper for solving optimum capacitor planning problem.
Keywords: Capacitor planning, Fuzzy logic method, Genetic Algorithm, Dynamic programming, Radial Distribution feeder
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1613990 Solution of Two-Point Nonlinear Boundary Problems Using Taylor Series Approximation and the Ying Buzu Shu Algorithm
Authors: U. C. Amadi, N. A. Udoh
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One of the major challenges faced in solving initial and boundary problems is how to find approximate solutions with minimal deviation from the exact solution without so much rigor and complications. The Taylor series method provides a simple way of obtaining an infinite series which converges to the exact solution for initial value problems and this method of solution is somewhat limited for a two point boundary problem since the infinite series has to be truncated to include the boundary conditions. In this paper, the Ying Buzu Shu algorithm is used to solve a two point boundary nonlinear diffusion problem for the fourth and sixth order solution and compare their relative error and rate of convergence to the exact solution.
Keywords: Ying Buzu Shu, nonlinear boundary problem, Taylor series algorithm, infinite series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 466989 Effect of Implementation of Nonlinear Sequence Transformations on Power Series Expansion for a Class of Non-Linear Abel Equations
Authors: Javad Abdalkhani
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Convergence of power series solutions for a class of non-linear Abel type equations, including an equation that arises in nonlinear cooling of semi-infinite rods, is very slow inside their small radius of convergence. Beyond that the corresponding power series are wildly divergent. Implementation of nonlinear sequence transformation allow effortless evaluation of these power series on very large intervals..Keywords: Nonlinear transformation, Abel Volterra Equations, Mathematica
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1310988 Applying a Noise Reduction Method to Reveal Chaos in the River Flow Time Series
Authors: Mohammad H. Fattahi
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Chaotic analysis has been performed on the river flow time series before and after applying the wavelet based de-noising techniques in order to investigate the noise content effects on chaotic nature of flow series. In this study, 38 years of monthly runoff data of three gauging stations were used. Gauging stations were located in Ghar-e-Aghaj river basin, Fars province, Iran. Noise level of time series was estimated with the aid of Gaussian kernel algorithm. This step was found to be crucial in preventing removal of the vital data such as memory, correlation and trend from the time series in addition to the noise during de-noising process.
Keywords: Chaotic behavior, wavelet, noise reduction, river flow.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2097987 Differentiation of Heart Rate Time Series from Electroencephalogram and Noise
Authors: V. I. Thajudin Ahamed, P. Dhanasekaran, Paul Joseph K.
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Analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has become a popular non-invasive tool for assessing the activities of autonomic nervous system. Most of the methods were hired from techniques used for time series analysis. Currently used methods are time domain, frequency domain, geometrical and fractal methods. A new technique, which searches for pattern repeatability in a time series, is proposed for quantifying heart rate (HR) time series. These set of indices, which are termed as pattern repeatability measure and pattern repeatability ratio are able to distinguish HR data clearly from noise and electroencephalogram (EEG). The results of analysis using these measures give an insight into the fundamental difference between the composition of HR time series with respect to EEG and noise.Keywords: Approximate entropy, heart rate variability, noise, pattern repeatability, and sample entropy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1739986 Time Series Forecasting Using Independent Component Analysis
Authors: Theodor D. Popescu
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The paper presents a method for multivariate time series forecasting using Independent Component Analysis (ICA), as a preprocessing tool. The idea of this approach is to do the forecasting in the space of independent components (sources), and then to transform back the results to the original time series space. The forecasting can be done separately and with a different method for each component, depending on its time structure. The paper gives also a review of the main algorithms for independent component analysis in the case of instantaneous mixture models, using second and high-order statistics. The method has been applied in simulation to an artificial multivariate time series with five components, generated from three sources and a mixing matrix, randomly generated.Keywords: Independent Component Analysis, second order statistics, simulation, time series forecasting
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1783985 The Optimal Placement of Capacitor in Order to Reduce Losses and the Profile of Distribution Network Voltage with GA, SA
Authors: Limouzade E., Joorabian M.
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Most of the losses in a power system relate to the distribution sector which always has been considered. From the important factors which contribute to increase losses in the distribution system is the existence of radioactive flows. The most common way to compensate the radioactive power in the system is the power to use parallel capacitors. In addition to reducing the losses, the advantages of capacitor placement are the reduction of the losses in the release peak of network capacity and improving the voltage profile. The point which should be considered in capacitor placement is the optimal placement and specification of the amount of the capacitor in order to maximize the advantages of capacitor placement. In this paper, a new technique has been offered for the placement and the specification of the amount of the constant capacitors in the radius distribution network on the basis of Genetic Algorithm (GA). The existing optimal methods for capacitor placement are mostly including those which reduce the losses and voltage profile simultaneously. But the retaliation cost and load changes have not been considered as influential UN the target function .In this article, a holistic approach has been considered for the optimal response to this problem which includes all the parameters in the distribution network: The price of the phase voltage and load changes. So, a vast inquiry is required for all the possible responses. So, in this article, we use Genetic Algorithm (GA) as the most powerful method for optimal inquiry.Keywords: Genetic Algorithm (GA), capacitor placement, voltage profile, network losses, Simulating Annealing (SA), distribution network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1539984 Statistical Reliability Based Modeling of Series and Parallel Operating Systems using Extreme Value Theory
Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi, Mojtaba Mahdavi
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This paper tries to represent a new method for computing the reliability of a system which is arranged in series or parallel model. In this method we estimate life distribution function of whole structure using the asymptotic Extreme Value (EV) distribution of Type I, or Gumbel theory. We use EV distribution in minimal mode, for estimate the life distribution function of series structure and maximal mode for parallel system. All parameters also are estimated by Moments method. Reliability function and failure (hazard) rate and p-th percentile point of each function are determined. Other important indexes such as Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Mean Time to repair (MTTR), for non-repairable and renewal systems in both of series and parallel structure will be computed.Keywords: Reliability, extreme value, parallel, series, lifedistribution
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2093983 Computational Intelligence Hybrid Learning Approach to Time Series Forecasting
Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu
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Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1564982 Revealing Nonlinear Couplings between Oscillators from Time Series
Authors: B.P. Bezruchko, D.A. Smirnov
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Quantitative characterization of nonlinear directional couplings between stochastic oscillators from data is considered. We suggest coupling characteristics readily interpreted from a physical viewpoint and their estimators. An expression for a statistical significance level is derived analytically that allows reliable coupling detection from a relatively short time series. Performance of the technique is demonstrated in numerical experiments.Keywords: Nonlinear time series analysis, directional couplings, coupled oscillators.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1269981 Fuzzy Metric Approach for Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting based on Frequency Density Based Partitioning
Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil
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In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.
Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3228980 Role of Community Youths in Conservation of Forests and Protected Areas of Bangladesh
Authors: Obaidul Fattah Tanvir, Zinat Ara Afroze
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Community living adjacent to forests and Protected Areas, especially in South Asian countries, have a common practice in extracting resources for their living and livelihoods. This extraction of resources, because the way it is done, destroys the biophysical features of the area. Deforestation, wildlife poaching, illegal logging, unauthorized hill cutting etc. are some of the serious issues of concern for the sustainability of the natural resources that has a direct impact on environment and climate as a whole. To ensure community involvement in conservation initiatives of the state, community based forest management, commonly known as Comanagement, has been in practice in 6 South Asian countries. These are -India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Involving community in forestry management was initiated first in Bangladesh in 1979 and reached as an effective co-management approach through a several paradigm shifts. This idea of Comanagement has been institutionalized through a Government Order (GO) by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh on November 23, 2009. This GO clearly defines the structure and functions of Co-management and its different bodies. Bangladesh Forest Department has been working in association with community to conserve and manage the Forests and Protected areas of Bangladesh following this legal document. Demographically young people constitute the largest segment of population in Bangladesh. This group, if properly sensitized, can produce valuable impacts on the conservation initiatives, both by community and government. This study traced the major factors that motivate community youths to work effectively with different tiers of comanagement organizations in conservation of forests and Protected Areas of Bangladesh. For the purpose of this study, 3 FGDs were conducted with 30 youths from the community living around the Protected Areas of Cox’s bazar, South East corner of Bangladesh, who are actively involved in Co-management organizations. KII were conducted with 5 key officials of Forest Department stationed at Cox’s Bazar. 2 FGDs were conducted with the representatives of 7 Co-management organizations working in Cox’s Bazar region and approaches of different community outreach activities conducted for forest conservation by 3 private organizations and Projects have been reviewed. Also secondary literatures were reviewed for the history and evolution of Co-management in Bangladesh and six South Asian countries. This study found that innovative community outreach activities that are financed by public and private sectors involving youths and community as a whole have played a pivotal role in conservation of forests and Protected Areas of the region. This approach can be replicated in other regions of Bangladesh as well as other countries of South Asia where Co-Management exists in practice.Keywords: Community, co-management, conservation, forests, protected areas, youth.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3763979 An ACO Based Algorithm for Distribution Networks Including Dispersed Generations
Authors: B. Bahmani Firouzi, T. Niknam, M. Nayeripour
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With Power system movement toward restructuring along with factors such as life environment pollution, problems of transmission expansion and with advancement in construction technology of small generation units, it is expected that small units like wind turbines, fuel cells, photovoltaic, ... that most of the time connect to the distribution networks play a very essential role in electric power industry. With increase in developing usage of small generation units, management of distribution networks should be reviewed. The target of this paper is to present a new method for optimal management of active and reactive power in distribution networks with regard to costs pertaining to various types of dispersed generations, capacitors and cost of electric energy achieved from network. In other words, in this method it-s endeavored to select optimal sources of active and reactive power generation and controlling equipments such as dispersed generations, capacitors, under load tapchanger transformers and substations in a way that firstly costs in relation to them are minimized and secondly technical and physical constraints are regarded. Because the optimal management of distribution networks is an optimization problem with continuous and discrete variables, the new evolutionary method based on Ant Colony Algorithm has been applied. The simulation results of the method tested on two cases containing 23 and 34 buses exist and will be shown at later sections.
Keywords: Distributed Generation, Optimal Operation Management of distribution networks, Ant Colony Optimization(ACO).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1714978 Forecasting Enrollment Model Based on First-Order Fuzzy Time Series
Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev
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This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.
Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2223977 Multivariate High Order Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting for Car Road Accidents
Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil
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In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2497976 Comparison of Artificial Neural Network Architectures in the Task of Tourism Time Series Forecast
Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes
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The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1889975 Green, Smooth and Easy Electrochemical Synthesis of N-Protected Indole Derivatives
Authors: Sarah Fahad Alajmi, Tamer Ezzat Youssef
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Here, we report a simple method for the direct conversion of 6-Nitro-1H-indole into N-substituted indoles via electrochemical dehydrogenative reaction with halogenated reagents under strongly basic conditions through N–R bond formation. The N-protected indoles have been prepared under moderate and scalable electrolytic conditions. The conduct of the reactions was performed in a simple divided cell under constant current without oxidizing reagents or transition-metal catalysts. The synthesized products have been characterized via UV/Vis spectrophotometry, 1H-NMR, and FTIR spectroscopy. A possible reaction mechanism is discussed based on the N-protective products. This methodology could be applied to the synthesis of various biologically active N-substituted indole derivatives.
Keywords: Green chemistry, 1H-indole, NH-containing heteroaromatic, organic electrosynthesis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 941974 A 4-Element Corporate Series Feed Millimeter-Wave Microstrip Antenna Array for 5G Applications
Authors: G. Viswanadh Raviteja
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In this paper, a microstrip antenna array is designed for 5G applications. A corporate series feed is considered to operate with a center frequency between 27 to 28 GHz to be able to cover the 5G frequency bands 24.25-27.5 GHz, 26.5-29.5 GHz and 27.5-28.35 GHz. The substrate is taken to be Rogers RT/Duroid 6002. The corporate series 5G antenna array is designed stage by stage by taking into consideration a conventional antenna designed at 28 GHz, thereby constructing the 2X1 antenna array before arriving at the final design structure of 4-element corporate series feed antenna array. The discussions concerning S11 parameter, gain and voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) for the design structures are considered and all the important findings are tabulated. The proposed antenna array’s S11 parameter was found to be -29.00 dB at a frequency of 27.39 GHz with a good directional gain of 12.12 dB.
Keywords: Corporate series feed, millimeter wave antenna array, 5G applications, millimeter-wave (mm-wave) applications
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 635973 Multi-Context Recurrent Neural Network for Time Series Applications
Authors: B. Q. Huang, Tarik Rashid, M-T. Kechadi
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this paper presents a multi-context recurrent network for time series analysis. While simple recurrent network (SRN) are very popular among recurrent neural networks, they still have some shortcomings in terms of learning speed and accuracy that need to be addressed. To solve these problems, we proposed a multi-context recurrent network (MCRN) with three different learning algorithms. The performance of this network is evaluated on some real-world application such as handwriting recognition and energy load forecasting. We study the performance of this network and we compared it to a very well established SRN. The experimental results showed that MCRN is very efficient and very well suited to time series analysis and its applications.
Keywords: Gradient descent method, recurrent neural network, learning algorithms, time series, BP
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3051972 Implementation and Simulation of Half-Bridge Series Resonant Inverter in Zero Voltage Switching
Authors: Buket Turan Azizoğlu
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In switch mode power inverters, small sized inverters can be obtained by increasing the switching frequency. Switching frequency increment causes high driver losses. Also, high dt di and dt dv produced by the switching action creates high Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) and Radio Frequency Interference (RFI). In this paper, a series half bridge series resonant inverter circuit is simulated and evaluated practically to demonstrate the turn-on and turn-off conditions during zero or close to zero voltage switching. Also, the reverse recovery current effects of the body diode of the MOSFETs were investigated by operating above and below resonant frequency.Keywords: Driver losses, Half Bridge series resonant inverter, Zero Voltage Switching
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3773971 Influence of Technology Parameters on Properties of AA6061/SiC Composites Produced By Kobo Method
Authors: J. Wozniak, M. Kostecki, K. Broniszewski, W. Bochniak, A. Olszyna
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The influence of extrusion parameters on surface quality and properties of AA6061+x% vol. SiC (x = 0; 2,5; 5; 7,5;10) composites was discussed in this paper. The averages size of AA6061 and SiC particles were 10.6 μm and 0.42 μm, respectively. Two series of composites (I - compacts were preheated at extrusion temperature through 0.5 h and cooled by water directly after process; II - compacts were preheated through 3 hours and were not cooled) were consolidated via powder metallurgy processing and extruded by KoBo method. High values of density for both series of composites were achieved. Better surface quality was observed for II series of composites. Moreover, for these composites lower (compared to I series) but more uniform strength properties over the cross-section of the bar were noticed. Microstructure and Young-s modulus investigations were made.Keywords: aluminum alloy, extrusion, metal matrix composites, microstructure
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1751970 A Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model for Multi-Variate Forecasting Analysis with Fuzzy C-Means Clustering
Authors: Emrah Bulut, Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida
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In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.
Keywords: C-means clustering, Fuzzy time series, Multi-variate design
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2305969 Implementation of Neural Network Based Electricity Load Forecasting
Authors: Myint Myint Yi, Khin Sandar Linn, Marlar Kyaw
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This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast (STLF) in the electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB. The load data are treated as time series data. They are decomposed into several wavelet coefficient series using the wavelet transform technique known as Non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT). The reason for using this technique is the belief in the possibility of extracting hidden patterns from the time series data. The wavelet coefficient series are used to train the neural networks (NNs) and used as the inputs to the NNs for electricity load prediction. The Scale Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm is used as the learning algorithm for the NNs. To get the final forecast data, the outputs from the NNs are recombined using the same wavelet technique. The model was evaluated with the electricity load data of Electronic Engineering Department in Mandalay Technological University in Myanmar. The simulation results showed that the model was capable of producing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in STLF.Keywords: Neural network, Load forecast, Time series, wavelettransform.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2500968 Detecting the Nonlinearity in Time Series from Continuous Dynamic Systems Based on Delay Vector Variance Method
Authors: Shumin Hou, Yourong Li, Sanxing Zhao
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Much time series data is generally from continuous dynamic system. Firstly, this paper studies the detection of the nonlinearity of time series from continuous dynamics systems by applying the Phase-randomized surrogate algorithm. Then, the Delay Vector Variance (DVV) method is introduced into nonlinearity test. The results show that under the different sampling conditions, the opposite detection of nonlinearity is obtained via using traditional test statistics methods, which include the third-order autocovariance and the asymmetry due to time reversal. Whereas the DVV method can perform well on determining nonlinear of Lorenz signal. It indicates that the proposed method can describe the continuous dynamics signal effectively.
Keywords: Nonlinearity, Time series, continuous dynamics system, DVV method
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1628967 An Approach in the Improvement of the Reliability of Impedance Relay
Authors: D. Ouahdi, R. Ladjeroud, I. Habi
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The distance protection mainly the impedance relay which is considered as the main protection for transmission lines can be subjected to impedance measurement error which is, mainly, due to the fault resistance and to the power fluctuation. Thus, the impedance relay may not operate for a short circuit at the far end of the protected line (case of the under reach) or operates for a fault beyond its protected zone (case of overreach). In this paper, an approach to fault detection by a distance protection, which distinguishes between the faulty conditions and the effect of overload operation mode, has been developed. This approach is based on the symmetrical components; mainly the negative sequence, and it is taking into account both the effect of fault resistance and the overload situation which both have an effect upon the reliability of the protection in terms of dependability for the former and security for the latter.
Keywords: Distance Protection, Fault Detection, negative sequence, overload, Transmission line.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1845966 Signal Processing Approach to Study Multifractality and Singularity of Solar Wind Speed Time Series
Authors: Tushnik Sarkar, Mofazzal H. Khondekar, Subrata Banerjee
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This paper investigates the nature of the fluctuation of the daily average Solar wind speed time series collected over a period of 2492 days, from 1st January, 1997 to 28th October, 2003. The degree of self-similarity and scalability of the Solar Wind Speed signal has been explored to characterise the signal fluctuation. Multi-fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) method has been implemented on the signal which is under investigation to perform this task. Furthermore, the singularity spectra of the signals have been also obtained to gauge the extent of the multifractality of the time series signal.Keywords: Detrended fluctuation analysis, generalized Hurst exponent, holder exponents, multifractal exponent, multifractal spectrum, singularity spectrum, time series analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1317965 Application of Extreme Learning Machine Method for Time Series Analysis
Authors: Rampal Singh, S. Balasundaram
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In this paper, we study the application of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm for single layered feedforward neural networks to non-linear chaotic time series problems. In this algorithm the input weights and the hidden layer bias are randomly chosen. The ELM formulation leads to solving a system of linear equations in terms of the unknown weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer. The solution of this general system of linear equations will be obtained using Moore-Penrose generalized pseudo inverse. For the study of the application of the method we consider the time series generated by the Mackey Glass delay differential equation with different time delays, Santa Fe A and UCR heart beat rate ECG time series. For the choice of sigmoid, sin and hardlim activation functions the optimal values for the memory order and the number of hidden neurons which give the best prediction performance in terms of root mean square error are determined. It is observed that the results obtained are in close agreement with the exact solution of the problems considered which clearly shows that ELM is a very promising alternative method for time series prediction.Keywords: Chaotic time series, Extreme learning machine, Generalization performance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3523964 Power Series Solution to Sliding Velocity in Three-Dimensional Multibody Systems with Impact and Friction
Authors: Hesham A. Elkaranshawy, Amr M. Abdelrazek, Hosam M. Ezzat
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The system of ordinary nonlinear differential equations describing sliding velocity during impact with friction for a three-dimensional rigid-multibody system is developed. No analytical solutions have been obtained before for this highly nonlinear system. Hence, a power series solution is proposed. Since the validity of this solution is limited to its convergence zone, a suitable time step is chosen and at the end of it a new series solution is constructed. For a case study, the trajectory of the sliding velocity using the proposed method is built using 6 time steps, which coincides with a Runge- Kutta solution using 38 time steps.Keywords: Impact with friction, nonlinear ordinary differential equations, power series solutions, rough collision.
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