Search results for: Weighted Sum Model

Authors: Ankita Gaur, Mouli Karmakar, Shyam

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In this study, a silicon solar cell has been modeled and analyzed to enhance its performance by improving the optical properties using an anti-reflecting coating (ARC). The dynamic optical reflectance, transmittance along with the net transmissivity absorptivity product of each layer are assessed as per the diurnal variation of the angle of incidence using MATLAB 2019. The model is tested with various anti-reflective coatings and the performance has also been compared with uncoated cells. ARC improves the optical transmittance of the photon. Higher transmittance of ⁓96.57% with lowest reflectance of ⁓ 1.74% at 12.00 hours was obtained with MgF2 coated silicon cells. The electrical efficiency of the configured solar cell was evaluated for a composite climate of New Delhi, India, for all weather conditions. The annual electricity generation for anti-reflective coated and uncoated crystalline silicon PV Module was observed to be 103.14 KWh and 99.51 KWh, respectively.

Keywords: Anti-reflecting coating, electrical efficiency, reflectance, solar cell, transmittance.

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Authors: Thang V. Kieu, Long P. Nguyen

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Kernelized Correlation Filter (KCF) based trackers have gained a lot of attention recently because of their accuracy and fast calculation speed. However, this algorithm is not robust in cases where the object is lost by a sudden change of direction, being obscured or going out of view. In order to improve KCF performance in long-term tracking, this paper proposes an anomaly detection method for target loss warning by analyzing the response map of each frame, and a classification algorithm for reliable target re-locating mechanism by using Random fern. Being tested with Visual Tracker Benchmark and Visual Object Tracking datasets, the experimental results indicated that the precision and success rate of the proposed algorithm were 2.92 and 2.61 times higher than that of the original KCF algorithm, respectively. Moreover, the proposed tracker handles occlusion better than many state-of-the-art long-term tracking methods while running at 60 frames per second.

Keywords: Correlation filter, long-term tracking, random fern, real-time tracking.

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Authors: M. Shahina, K. Fakruddin, C. M. Subhan, S. Rangappa

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In this work, two mixtures with equal concentrations of 1) 4ꞌ-(6-(4-(pentylamino) methyl)-3-hydroxyphenoxy) hexyloxy) biphenyl-4-carbonitrile+-4-((4-(hexyloxy) benzylidene) amino) phenyl 4-butoxy benzoate and 2) 4ꞌ - (6-(4-(hexylamino) methyl)-3-hydroxyphenoxy) hexyloxy) biphenyl-4-carbonitrile+-4-((4-(octyloxy) benzylidene) amino) phenyl 4-butoxy benzoate, have been prepared. The transition temperature and optical texture are observed by using thermal microscopy. Density and birefringence studies are carried out on the above liquid crystalline mixtures. Using density and refractive indices data, the molecular polarizabilities are evaluated by using well-known Vuks and Neugebauer models. The molecular polarizability is also evaluated theoretically by Lippincott δ function model. The results reveal that the polarizability values are same in both experimental and theoretical methods.

Keywords: Liquid crystals, optical textures, transition temperature, birefringence, polarizability.

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Authors: Filiz Ersoz, Taner Ersoz, Erkin Guler

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This paper addresses the issues and technique for textile industry using data mining techniques. Data mining has been applied to the stitching of garments products that were obtained from a textile company. Data mining techniques were applied to the data obtained from the CHAID algorithm, CART algorithm, Regression Analysis and, Artificial Neural Networks. Classification technique based analyses were used while data mining and decision model about the production per person and variables affecting about production were found by this method. In the study, the results show that as the daily working time increases, the production per person also decreases. In addition, the relationship between total daily working and production per person shows a negative result and the production per person show the highest and negative relationship.

Keywords: Data mining, textile production, decision trees, classification.

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Authors: M. Selvaggi, F. Pinto, A. R. Pesce Delfino, A. Vicenti, C. Dario

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Data from 1731 Gentile di Puglia lambs, sired by 65 rams over a 5-year period were analyzed by a mixed model to estimate the variance components for heritability. The considered growth traits were: birth weight (BW), weight at 30 days of age (W30) and average daily gain from birth to 30 days of age (DG). Year of birth, sex of lamb, type of birth (single or twin), dam age at lambing and farm were significant sources of variation for all the considered growth traits. The average lamb weights were 3.85±0.16 kg at birth, 9.57±0.91 kg at 30 days of age and the average daily gain was 191±14 g. Estimates of heritability were 0.33±0.05, 0.41±0.06 and 0.16±0.05 respectively for the same traits. These values suggest there is a good opportunity to improve Gentile di Puglia lambs by selecting animals for growth traits.

Keywords: heritability estimate, growth traits, lambs, Gentile diPuglia.

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Authors: Phornpat Chewasoonthorn, Surat Kwanmuang

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Indoor positioning technologies have been evolved rapidly. They augment the Global Positioning System (GPS) which requires line-of-sight to the sky to track the location of people or objects. In this study, we developed an error correction method for an indoor real-time location system (RTLS) based on an ultra-wideband (UWB) sensor from Decawave. Multiple stationary nodes (anchor) were installed throughout the workspace. The distance between stationary and moving nodes (tag) can be measured using a two-way-ranging (TWR) scheme. The result has shown that the uncorrected ranging error from the sensor system can be as large as 1 m. To reduce ranging error and thus increase positioning accuracy, we present an online correction algorithm using the Kalman filter. The results from experiments have shown that the system can reduce ranging error down to 5 cm.

Keywords: Indoor positioning, ultra-wideband, error correction, Kalman filter.

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Authors: Satish Kumar Dewangan, Santosh Kumar Senapati

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The present work focuses on the investigation of the effect of non-Newtonian behavior on the oil-water stratified flow in a horizontal channel using ANSYS Fluent. Coupled level set and volume of fluid (CLSVOF) has been used to capture the evolving interface assuming unsteady, coaxial flow with constant fluid properties. The diametric variation of oil volume fraction, mixture velocity, total pressure and pressure gradient has been studied. Non-Newtonian behavior of oil has been represented by the power law model in order to investigate the effect of flow behavior index. Stratified flow pattern tends to assume dispersed flow pattern with the change in the behavior of oil to non-Newtonian. The pressure gradient is found to be very much sensitive to the flow behavior index. The findings could be useful in designing the transportation pipe line in petroleum industries.

Keywords: Oil-water stratified flow, horizontal channel, CLSVOF, non–Newtonian behavior.

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Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Yu-Sheng Hsu

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On-board available parking space detecting system, parking trajectory planning and tracking control mechanism are the key components of vehicle backward auto-parking system. Firstly, pair of ultrasonic sensors is installed on each side of vehicle body surface to detect the relative distance between ego-car and surrounding obstacle. The dimension of a found empty space can be calculated based on vehicle speed and the time history of ultrasonic sensor detecting information. This result can be used for constructing the 2D vehicle environmental map and available parking type judgment. Finally, the auto-parking controller executes the on-line optimal parking trajectory planning based on this 2D environmental map, and monitors the real-time vehicle parking trajectory tracking control. This low cost auto-parking system was tested on a model car.

Keywords: Vehicle auto-parking, parking space detection, parking path tracking, intelligent fuzzy controller.

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Zohdi, Mohamad Reza Dalvand, Maryam Zohdi

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In this research relationship between to be smooth the interest and output of accepted companies stock at negotiable paper exchange of Tehran is studied. Static community capacity included 363 companies member of negotiable paper exchange of Tehran that 54 companies were, by considering research limitation, selected from 2004 to 2009. Needed data for model test in librarian method was chosen from RAH AVARDE NOVIN informative banks, TADBIR and collecting needed data was selected from Tehran negotiable paper exchange archive. Given results show that in spite of belief among people based on companies have more smooth interest have more output, but resulted outcomes of test-done reveals that there is no relation between smooth interest and stock output.

Keywords: Smooth interest, interest fluctuation, interest level, output average, cost capital

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Authors: Li Long, Thomas Ortlepp

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The transport properties of carriers in polycrystalline silicon film affect the performance of polycrystalline silicon-based devices. They depend strongly on the grain structure, grain boundary trap properties and doping concentration, which in turn are determined by the film deposition and processing conditions. Based on the properties of charge carriers, phonons, grain boundaries and their interactions, the thermoelectric properties of polycrystalline silicon are analyzed with the relaxation time approximation of the Boltzmann transport equation. With this approach, thermal conductivity, electrical conductivity and Seebeck coefficient as a function of grain size, trap properties and doping concentration can be determined. Experiment on heavily doped polycrystalline silicon is carried out and measurement results are compared with the model.

Keywords: Conductivity, polycrystalline silicon, relaxation time approximation, Seebeck coefficient, thermoelectric property.

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Authors: F. May Liou, Y. C. Edwin Tang

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This paper aims to provide a conceptual framework to examine competitive disadvantage of banks that suffer from poor performance. Banks generate revenues mainly from the interest rate spread on taking deposits and making loans while collecting fees in the process. To maximize firm value, banks seek loan growth and expense control while managing risk associated with loans with respect to non-performing borrowers or narrowing interest spread between assets and liabilities. Competitive disadvantage refers to the failure to access imitable resources and to build managing capabilities to gain sustainable return given appropriate risk management. This paper proposes a four-quadrant framework of organizational typology is subsequently proposed to examine the features of competitive disadvantage in the banking sector. A resource configuration model, which is extracted from CAMEL indicators to examine the underlying features of bank failures.

Keywords: Bank failure, CAMEL, competitive disadvantage, resource configuration.

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Authors: S Hariharan, K Chaitanya, P Muthuchidambaranathan

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The IEEE 802.22 working group aims to drive the Digital Video Broadcasting-Terrestrial (DVB-T) bands for data communication to the rural area without interfering the TV broadcast. In this paper, we arrive at a closed-form expression for average detection probability of Fusion center (FC) with multiple antenna over the κ − μ fading channel model. We consider a centralized cooperative multiple antenna network for reporting. The DVB-T samples forwarded by the secondary user (SU) were combined using Maximum ratio combiner at FC, an energy detection is performed to make the decision. The fading effects of the channel degrades the detection probability of the FC, a generalized independent and identically distributed (IID) κ − μ and an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel is considered for reporting and sensing respectively. The proposed system performance is verified through simulation results.

Keywords: IEEE 802.22, Cooperative spectrum sensing, Multiple antenna, κ − μ .

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Authors: Tadashi Watanabe

Abstract:

The flow field and the motion of the free surface in an oscillating container are simulated numerically to assess the numerical approach for studying two-phase flows under oscillating conditions. Two numerical methods are compared: one is to model the oscillating container directly using the moving grid of the ALE method, and the other is to simulate the effect of container motion using the oscillating body force acting on the fluid in the stationary container. The two-phase flow field in the container is simulated using the level set method in both cases. It is found that the calculated results by the body force method coinsides with those by the moving grid method and the sloshing behavior is predicted well by both the methods. Theoretical back ground and limitation of the body force method are discussed, and the effects of oscillation amplitude and frequency are shown.

Keywords: Two-phase flow, simulation, oscillation, moving grid, body force

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Authors: Walid M. Saad

Abstract:

techniques are examined to overcome the performance degradation caused by the channel dispersion using slow frequency hopping (SFH) with dynamic frequency hopping (DFH) pattern adaptation. In DFH systems, the frequency slots are selected by continuous quality monitoring of all frequencies available in a system and modification of hopping patterns for each individual link based on replacing slots which its signal to interference ratio (SIR) measurement is below a required threshold. Simulation results will show the improvements in BER obtained by DFH in comparison with matched frequency hopping (MFH), random frequency hopping (RFH) and multi-carrier code division multiple access (MC-CDMA) in multipath slowly fading dispersive channels using a generalized bandpass two-path transfer function model, and will show the improvement obtained according to the threshold selection.

Keywords: code division multiple access (CDMA), dynamic channel allocation (DCA), dynamic channel assignment, frequency hopping, matched frequency hopping (MFH).

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Authors: Nikolaos Vassilas, Theocharis Tsenoglou, Djamchid Ghazanfarpour

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In this work, we explore the capability of the mean shift algorithm as a powerful preprocessing tool for improving the quality of spatial data, acquired from airborne scanners, from densely built urban areas. On one hand, high resolution image data corrupted by noise caused by lossy compression techniques are appropriately smoothed while at the same time preserving the optical edges and, on the other, low resolution LiDAR data in the form of normalized Digital Surface Map (nDSM) is upsampled through the joint mean shift algorithm. Experiments on both the edge-preserving smoothing and upsampling capabilities using synthetic RGB-z data show that the mean shift algorithm is superior to bilateral filtering as well as to other classical smoothing and upsampling algorithms. Application of the proposed methodology for 3D reconstruction of buildings of a pilot region of Athens, Greece results in a significant visual improvement of the 3D building block model.

Keywords: 3D buildings reconstruction, data fusion, data upsampling, mean shift.

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Authors: A. K. Abdel-Fattah, A. B. El-Tawil, N. A. Harraz

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This paper focuses on the operational and strategic planning decisions related to the quayside of container terminals. We introduce an integrated operational research (OR) and system dynamics (SD) approach to solve the Berth Allocation Problem (BAP) and the Quay Crane Assignment Problem (QCAP). A BAP-QCAP optimization modeling approach which considers practical aspects not studied before in the integration of BAP and QCAP is discussed. A conceptual SD model is developed to determine the long-term effect of optimization on the system behavior factors like resource utilization, attractiveness to port, number of incoming vessels to port and port profits. The framework can be used for improving the operational efficiency of container terminals and providing a strategic view after applying optimization.

Keywords: Operational research, system dynamics, container terminal, quayside operational problems, strategic planning decisions.

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Authors: Jamal Wiwoho, Pujiyono, Triyanto

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Terrorism is a real enemy for all countries, including Indonesia. Bomb attacks in some parts of Indonesia are proof that Indonesia has serious problems with terrorism. Perpetrators of terror are arrested and imprisoned, and some of them were executed. However, this method did not succeed in stopping the terrorist attacks. Former terrorists continue to carry out bomb attacks. Therefore, this paper proposes a program towards deradicalization efforts of former terrorists through entrepreneurship. This is necessary because it is impossible to change their radical ideology. The program is also motivated by understanding that terrorists generally come from poor families. This program aims to occupy their time with business activities so there is no time to plan and carry out bomb attacks. This research is an empirical law study. Data were collected by literature study, observation, and in-depth interviews. Data were analyzed with the Miles and Huberman interactive model. The results show that the entrepreneurship program is effective to prevent terrorist attack. Former terrorists are busy with their business. Therefore, they have no time to carry out bomb attacks.

Keywords: Deradicalization, terrorists, entrepreneurship.

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Authors: M.A. Calin, D. Voicu, M.R. Calin, D. Savastru, D. Manea

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In this paper we evaluated the efficacy of photodynamic treatment of infected wounds on pig animal model by diffuse reflectance spectrometry. The study was conducted on fifteen wounds contaminated with Staphylococcus aureus bacteria that were incubated for 30 min with methylene blue solution (c = 3.3 x 10-3 M) and exposed to laser radiations (λ = 670 nm, P = 15 mW) for 15 min. The efficiency of photodynamic inactivation of bacteria was evaluated by microbiological exams and diffuse reflectance spectrometry. The results of the microbiological exams showed that the bacterial concentration has decreased from 6.93±0.138 logCFU/ml to 3.12±0.108 logCFU/ml. The spectral examination showed that the diffuse reflectance of wounds contaminated with Staphylococcus aureus has decreased from 5.06±0.036 % to 3.36±0.025 %. In conclusion, photodynamic therapy is an effective method for the treatment of infected wounds and there is a correlation between the CFU count and diffuse reflectance.

Keywords: photodynamic inactivation, bacteria, pigs, wounds

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Authors: Saroj Kumar Sarangi, M. C. Ray

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This paper deals with the analysis of active constrained layer damping (ACLD) of doubly curved laminated composite shells using active fiber composite (AFC) materials. The constraining layer of the ACLD treatment has been considered to be made of the AFC materials. A three dimensional energy based finite element model of the smart doubly curved laminated composite shell integrated with a patch of such ACLD treatment has been developed to demonstrate the performance of the patch on enhancing the damping characteristics of the doubly curved laminated composite shells. Particular emphasis has been placed on studying the effect of variation of piezoelectric fiber orientation angle in the constraining AFC layer on the control authority of the ACLD patch.

Keywords: Active constrained layer damping, Active fibercomposites, Finite element modeling, First order shear deformationtheory.

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Authors: Chenxue Yang, Mao Ye, Zijian Liu, Tao Li, Jiao Bao

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Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a useful computational method to find basis information of multivariate nonnegative data. A popular approach to solve the NMF problem is the multiplicative update (MU) algorithm. But, it has some defects. So the columnwisely alternating gradient (cAG) algorithm was proposed. In this paper, we analyze convergence of the cAG algorithm and show advantages over the MU algorithm. The stability of the equilibrium point is used to prove the convergence of the cAG algorithm. A classic model is used to obtain the equilibrium point and the invariant sets are constructed to guarantee the integrity of the stability. Finally, the convergence conditions of the cAG algorithm are obtained, which help reducing the evaluation time and is confirmed in the experiments. By using the same method, the MU algorithm has zero divisor and is convergent at zero has been verified. In addition, the convergence conditions of the MU algorithm at zero are similar to that of the cAG algorithm at non-zero. However, it is meaningless to discuss the convergence at zero, which is not always the result that we want for NMF. Thus, we theoretically illustrate the advantages of the cAG algorithm.

Keywords: Non-negative matrix factorizations, convergence, cAG algorithm, equilibrium point, stability.

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Authors: Liming Chen, Baoxin Xiu, Zhaoyun Ding, Bin Liu, Xianqiang Zhu

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In the era of big data, public investors are faced with more complicated information related to investment decisions than ever before. To survive in the fierce competition, it has become increasingly urgent for investors to combine multi-source knowledge and evaluate the companies’ true value efficiently. For this, a rule-based ontology reasoning method is proposed to support steel companies’ value assessment. Considering the delay in financial disclosure and based on cost-benefit analysis, this paper introduces the supply chain enterprises financial analysis and constructs the ontology model used to value the value of steel company. In addition, domain knowledge is formally expressed with the help of Web Ontology Language (OWL) language and SWRL (Semantic Web Rule Language) rules. Finally, a case study on a steel company in China proved the effectiveness of the method we proposed.

Keywords: Financial ontology, steel company, supply chain, ontology reasoning.

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Authors: Vera Pujani, Alfitman, Refdinal Nazir

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E-travel is travel agency-s companies employing internet and website as e-commerce context. This study presents numerous initial key factors of electronic travel model based on small travel agencies perspectives. Browsing previous studies related to website travel activities are conducted. Five small travel agencies in Indonesia has been deeply interviewed in case studies. The finding of this research is identifying numerous characteristics and dimension factors and travel website operations including ownermanager roles, business experiences, characteristically business, and technological aspects. This study is the preliminary research related to travel website adoption in Indonesia. The further study would be conducted in questionnaires of the quantitative research in Indonesia contexts as a developing country.

Keywords: Tourism, travel agency, e-commerce, website, developing country, small business, case study.

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Authors: Dario Ramirez de Leon, Oscar Chavez Bosquez, Julian J. Francisco Leon

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Since the conception of JML, many tools, applications and implementations have been done. In this context, the users or developers who want to use JML seem surounded by many of these tools, applications and so on. Looking for a common infrastructure and an independent language to provide a bridge between these tools and JML, we developed an approach to embedded contracts in XML for Java: XJML. This approach offer us the ability to separate preconditions, posconditions and class invariants using JML and XML, so we made a front-end which can process Runtime Assertion Checking, Extended Static Checking and Full Static Program Verification. Besides, the capabilities for this front-end can be extended and easily implemented thanks to XML. We believe that XJML is an easy way to start the building of a Graphic User Interface delivering in this way a friendly and IDE independency to developers community wich want to work with JML.

Keywords: Model checking, verification and validation, JML, XML, java, runtime assertion checking, extended static checking, full static program verification.

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Authors: Alexandra Leukauf, Alexander Schirrer, Emir Talic

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Numerical computation of wave propagation in a large domain usually requires significant computational effort. Hence, the considered domain must be truncated to a smaller domain of interest. In addition, special boundary conditions, which absorb the outward travelling waves, need to be implemented in order to describe the system domains correctly. In this work, the linear one dimensional wave equation is approximated by utilizing the Fourier Galerkin approach. Furthermore, the artificial boundaries are realized with absorbing boundary conditions. Within this work, a systematic work flow for setting up the wave problem, including the absorbing boundary conditions, is proposed. As a result, a convenient modal system description with an effective absorbing boundary formulation is established. Moreover, the truncated model shows high accuracy compared to the global domain.

Keywords: Absorbing boundary conditions, boundary control, Fourier Galerkin approach, modal approach, wave equation.

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Authors: Amer Ezoji, Mohammad Sedighi

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In the article, the wire winding process for the reinforcement of a pressure vessel frame has been studied. Firstly, the importance of the wire winding method has been explained. The main step in the design process is the methodology axial force control and wire winding process. The hot isostatic press and wire winding process introduce. With use the equilibrium term in the pressure vessel and frame, stresses in the frame wires analyzed. A case study frame was studied to control axial force in the hot isostatic press. Frame and them wires simulated then friction effect and wires effect in elastic yoke in the simulation model considered. Then theoretical and simulate resulted compare and vessel pressure import to frame because we assurance wire wounded not received to yielding point.   

Keywords: Wire winding, Frame, stress, friction.

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Authors: Md Abdullah Al Faruque

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A very large percentage of bridge failures are attributed to scouring around bridge piers and this directly influences public safety. Experiments are carried out in a 12-m long rectangular open channel flume made of transparent tempered glass. A 300 mm thick bed made up of sand particles is leveled horizontally to create the test bed and a 50 mm hollow plastic cylinder is used as a model bridge pier. Tests are carried out with varying flow depths and velocities. Data points of various scour parameters such as scour depth, width, and length are collected based on different flow conditions and visual observations of changes in the stream bed downstream the bridge pier are also made as the scour progresses. Result shows that all three major flow characteristics (flow depth, Froude number and densimetric Froude number) have one way or other affect the scour profile.

Keywords: Bridge pier scour, densimetric Froude number, flow depth, Froude Number, sand.

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Authors: Martina Holenko Dlab, Natasa Hoic-Bozic

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This paper presents an original approach to student and group activity level assessment that relies on certainty factors theory. Activity level is used to represent quantity and continuity of student’s contributions in individual and collaborative e‑learning activities (e‑tivities) and is calculated to assist teachers in assessing quantitative aspects of student's achievements. Calculated activity levels are also used to raise awareness and provide recommendations during the learning process. The proposed approach was implemented within the educational recommender system ELARS and validated using data obtained from e‑tivity realized during a blended learning course. The results showed that the proposed approach can be used to estimate activity level in the context of e-tivities realized using Web 2.0 tools as well as to facilitate the assessment of quantitative aspect of students’ participation in e‑tivities.

Keywords: Assessment, ELARS, e-learning, recommender systems, student model.

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Authors: Hansung Wan, Hyungkwan Cho, Kiho Sung, Hongkyu Kim

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The amount of urban artificial heat which affects the urban temperature rise in urban meteorology was investigated in order to clarify the relationships between urbanization and urban meteorology in this study. The results of calculation to identify how urban temperate was increased through the establishment of a model for measuring the amount of urban artificial heat and theoretical testing revealed that the amount of urban artificial heat increased urban temperature by plus or minus 0.23 ˚ C in 2007 compared with 1996, statistical methods (correlation and regression analysis) to clarify the relationships between urbanization and urban weather were as follows. New design techniques and urban growth management are necessary from urban growth management point of view suggested from this research at city design phase to decrease urban temperature rise and urban torrential rain which can produce urban disaster in terms of urban meteorology by urbanization.

Keywords: The amount of urban artificial heat, Urban growth management, Urbanization, Urban meteorology

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Authors: Iman Atighi, Jalal Soleimannejad, Ahmad Akbarinasab, Saeid Moradpour

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In the past, we could increase profit by increasing product prices. But in the new decade, a competitive market does not let us to increase profit with increase prices. Therefore, the only way to increase profit will be reduce costs. A significant percentage of production costs are the maintenance costs, and analysis of these costs could achieve more profit. Most maintenance strategies such as RCM (Reliability-Center-Maintenance), TPM (Total Productivity Maintenance), PM (Preventive Maintenance) etc., are trying to reduce maintenance costs. In this paper, decreasing the maintenance costs of Concentration Plant of Golgohar Company (GEG) was examined by using of MTBF (Mean Time between Failures) and MTTR (Mean Time to Repair) analyses. These analyses showed that instead of buying new machines and increasing costs in order to promote capacity, the improving of MTBF and MTTR indexes would solve capacity problems in the best way and decrease costs.

Keywords: Golgohar Iron Ore Mining & Industrial Company, maintainability, maintenance costs, reliability-center-maintenance.

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Authors: Darren Zou

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Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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