Search results for: Uncertainty factors

Authors: Pascal Constantin, Gîlcă Ioan, Radu Rusu Răzvan, Nacu Gherasim

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In the Northern hemisphere, sheep reproduction is seasonal (September-November). Among several natural factors influencing the reproduction status of rams, we studied the daylight length and temperature. Rams from different breeds were studied: Merinos de Palas (half-precocious), Karakul de Botosani (halfbelated) and Turcana (belated breed, low reproductive plasticity). In Merinos de Palas, ejaculate volume during sexual repose is 51.3% from normal quantity. When autumn climate was experimentally induced, ejaculate volume reached 98.45% (Merinos), 94.97% (Karakul) and 97.59% (Turcana). Semen density increased from 1.031-1.033 till 1.035 after exposition to artificial light and temperature conditions. Spermatozoids mobility and sperm pH improved, passing over 82% and 6.75, values identical to those in the natural reproduction season. Behaviour analysis after photoperiodicity indicated that over 83.3% Merinos and Karakul males and all Turcana rams exteriorised normal and intense sexual reflexes. Certain effort and reduced expenses brought rams in good condition, producing higher quantity and quality sperm.

Keywords: natural factors, photoperiodicity, sexual behaviour, Romanian sheep.

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Authors: Shorena Tsiklauri, Avtandil Sulaberidze, Nino Gomelauri

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In the years followed independence, an economic crisis and some conflicts led to the displacement of many people inside Georgia. The growing poverty, unemployment, low income and its unequal distribution limited access to basic social service have had a clear direct impact on Georgian population dynamics and its age-sex structure. Factors influencing the changing population age structure and urbanization include mortality, fertility, migration and expansion of urban. In this paper presents the main factors of changing the distribution by urban and rural areas. How different are the urban and rural age and sex structures? Does Georgia have the same age-sex structure among their urban and rural populations since 1950s?

Keywords: Age and sex structure of population, Georgia, migration, urban-rural population.

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Authors: T. S. Chou, K. K. Yen, J. Luo

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The network traffic data provided for the design of intrusion detection always are large with ineffective information and enclose limited and ambiguous information about users- activities. We study the problems and propose a two phases approach in our intrusion detection design. In the first phase, we develop a correlation-based feature selection algorithm to remove the worthless information from the original high dimensional database. Next, we design an intrusion detection method to solve the problems of uncertainty caused by limited and ambiguous information. In the experiments, we choose six UCI databases and DARPA KDD99 intrusion detection data set as our evaluation tools. Empirical studies indicate that our feature selection algorithm is capable of reducing the size of data set. Our intrusion detection method achieves a better performance than those of participating intrusion detectors.

Keywords: Intrusion detection, feature selection, k-nearest neighbors, fuzzy clustering, Dempster-Shafer theory

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Authors: Nisarg A. Patel, Hiren B. Patel

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Quantum cryptography is described as a point-to-point secure key generation technology that has emerged in recent times in providing absolute security. Researchers have started studying new innovative approaches to exploit the security of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) for a large-scale communication system. A number of approaches and models for utilization of QKD for secure communication have been developed. The uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics created a new paradigm for QKD. One of the approaches for use of QKD involved network fashioned security. The main goal was point-to-point Quantum network that exploited QKD technology for end-to-end network security via high speed QKD. Other approaches and models equipped with QKD in network fashion are introduced in the literature as. A different approach that this paper deals with is using QKD in existing protocols, which are widely used on the Internet to enhance security with main objective of unconditional security. Our work is towards the analysis of the QKD in Mobile ad-hoc network (MANET).

Keywords: QKD, cryptography, quantum cryptography, network performance.

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Authors: Shiva Hashemi, Azizan Marzuki, S. Kiumarsi

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In recent years, conference destinations have been highly competitive; therefore, it is necessary to know about the behaviours of conference participants such as the process of their decision-making and the assessment of perceived conference quality. A conceptual research framework based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour model is presented in this research to get better understanding factors that influence it. This research study highlights key factors presented in previous studies in which behaviour intentions of participants are affected by the quality of conference. Therefore, this study is believed to provide an idea that conference participants should be encouraged to contribute to the quality and behaviour intention of the conference.

Keywords: Conference attendees, service quality, perceives value, trust, behaviour intention.

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Authors: E. A. Ojoko, G. B. Umbugadu

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This study aims at describing the expenditure pattern of households on millet, maize and sorghum across income groups in Nasarawa State. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select a sample size of 316 respondents for the study. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model was adopted in this study. Results from the study shows that the average household size was five persons with dependency ratio of 52 %, which plays an important role on the household’s expenditure pattern by increasing the household budget share. On the average 82 % were male headed households with an average age of 49 years and 13 years of formal education. Results on expenditure share show that maize has the highest expenditure share of 38 % across the three income groups and that most of the price effects are significantly different from zero at 5 % significant level. This shows that the low price of maize increased its demand as compared to other cereals. Household size and age of household members are major factors affecting the demand for cereals in the study. This agrees with the fact that increased household population (size) will bring about increase consumption. The results on factors influencing preferences for cereal grains reveals that cooking quality and appearance (65.7 %) were the most important factors affecting the demand for maize in the study area. This study recommends that cereal crop production should be prioritized in government policies and farming activities that help to boost food security and alleviate poverty should be subsidized.

Keywords: Expenditure pattern, AIDS model, budget share, price cereal grains and consumption.

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Authors: Essa Alenazi, Zulfikar Adamu

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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is not an exception in relying on the growth of its construction industry to support rapid population growth. However, its need for infrastructure development is constrained by low productivity levels and cost overruns caused by factors such as delays to project completion. Delays in delivering a construction project are a global issue and while theories such as Optimism Bias have been used to explain such delays, in KSA, client-related causes of delays are also significant. The objective of this paper is to develop a framework-based approach to explore how the country’s construction industry can manage and reduce delays in construction projects through building information modelling (BIM) in order to mitigate the cost consequences of such delays.  It comprehensively and systematically reviewed the global literature on the subject and identified gaps, critical delay factors and the specific benefits that BIM can deliver for the delay management.  A case study comprising of nine hospital projects that have experienced delay and cost overruns was also carried out. Five critical delay factors related to the clients were identified as candidates that can be mitigated through BIM’s benefits. These factors are: Ineffective planning and scheduling of the project; changes during construction by the client; delay in progress payment; slowness in decision making by the client; and poor communication between clients and other stakeholders. In addition, data from the case study projects strongly suggest that optimism bias is present in many of the hospital projects. Further validation via key stakeholder interviews and documentations are planned.

Keywords: BIM, client perspective, delay management, optimism bias, public sector projects.

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Authors: Mustafa Elfituri, Jonathan Cook

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Recently, graph-based computations have become more important in large-scale scientific computing as they can provide a methodology to model many types of relations between independent objects. They are being actively used in fields as varied as biology, social networks, cybersecurity, and computer networks. At the same time, graph problems have some properties such as irregularity and poor locality that make their performance different than regular applications performance. Therefore, parallelizing graph algorithms is a hard and challenging task. Initial evidence is that standard computer architectures do not perform very well on graph algorithms. Little is known exactly what causes this. The Graph500 benchmark is a representative application for parallel graph-based computations, which have highly irregular data access and are driven more by traversing connected data than by computation. In this paper, we present results from analyzing the performance of various example implementations of Graph500, including a shared memory (OpenMP) version, a distributed (MPI) version, and a hybrid version. We measured and analyzed all the factors that affect its performance in order to identify possible changes that would improve its performance. Results are discussed in relation to what factors contribute to performance degradation.

Keywords: Graph computation, Graph500 benchmark, parallel architectures, parallel programming, workload characterization.

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Authors: Andreas Ahrens, Ojaras Purvinis Jelena Zāšcerinska

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A successful shopping experience without overcrowded shops and long waiting times undoubtedly leads to the release of happiness hormones and is generally considered as the goal of any optimization. Factors influencing the shopping experience can be divided into internal and external ones. External factors are related e. g. to the arrival of the customers to the shop whereas internal factors are linked with the service process itself when checking out (waiting in the queue to the cash register and the scanning of the goods as well as the payment process itself) or any other non-expected delay when changing the status from a visitor to a buyer by choosing goods or items. This paper divides the customer-server interaction in five phases starting with the customer arrival at the shop, the selection of goods, the buyer waiting in the queue to the cash register, the payment process and ending with the customer or buyer departure. Our simulation results show how five phases are intertwined and influence the overall shopping experience. Parameters for measuring the shopping experience based on a burstiness level in each of the five phases of the customer-server interaction are estimated.

Keywords: Customers’ burstiness, cash register, customers’ waiting time, gap distribution function.

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Authors: Puteri Nemie Jahn Kassim, Khadijah Mohd Najid

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Medical negligence disputes in Malaysia are mainly resolved through litigation by using the tort system. The tort system, being adversarial in nature has subjected parties to litigation hazards such as delay, excessive costs and uncertainty of outcome. The dissatisfaction of the tort system in compensating medically injured victims has created various alternatives to litigation. Amongst them is the implementation of a no-fault compensation system which would allow compensation to be given without the need of proving fault on the medical personnel. Instead, the community now bears the burden of compensating and at the end, promotes collective responsibility. For Malaysia, introducing a no-fault system would provide a tempting solution and may ultimately, achieve justice for the medical injured victims. Nevertheless, such drastic change requires a great deal of consideration to determine the suitability of the system and whether or not it will eventually cater for the needs of the Malaysian population

Keywords: Medical Disputes, Litigation, Malaysia, No-Fault Compensation.

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Authors: Safwan Altarazi, Raghad Hemeimat, Mousa Wakileh, Ra'ad Qsous, Aya Khreisat

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With the development of the Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) products in many applications, the challenge of investigating the raw material composition and reducing the cost have both become more and more important. Considerable research has been done investigating the effect of additives on the PVC products. Most of the PVC composites research investigates only the effect of single/few factors, at a time. This isolated consideration of the input factors does not take in consideration the interaction effect of the different factors. This paper implements a mixture experimental design approach to find out a cost-effective PVC composition for the production of electrical-insulation cables considering the ASTM Designation (D) 6096. The results analysis showed that a minimum cost can be achieved through using 20% virgin PVC, 18.75% recycled PVC, 43.75% CaCO3 with participle size 10 microns, 14% DOP plasticizer, and 3.5% CPW plasticizer. For maximum UTS the compound should consist of: 17.5% DOP, 62.5% virgin PVC, and 20.0% CaCO3 of particle size 5 microns. Finally, for the highest ductility the compound should be made of 35% virgin PVC, 20% CaCO3 of particle size 5 microns, and 45.0% DOP plasticizer.

Keywords: ASTM 6096, mixture experimental-design approach, PVC electrical cable insulation, recycled PVC.

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Authors: Gholam Hossein Naseri, Manucher Tamizi

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Light is one of the most important qualitative and symbolic factors and has a special position in architecture and urban development in regard to practical function. The main function of light, either natural or artificial, is lighting up the environment and the constructional forms which is called lighting. However, light is used to redefine the urban spaces by architectural genius with regard to three aesthetic, conceptual and symbolic factors. In architecture and urban development, light has a function beyond lighting up the environment, and the designers consider it as one of the basic components. The present research aims at studying the function of light and color in architectural view and their effects in buildings.

Keywords: Architectural View , Color , Light

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Authors: Yue-Yang Chen, Hui-Ling Huang, Wan-Yu Yu, Chung-Lun Wei

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In recent years, though, the concept of fit has been now in widespread used in strategic management research, it is in its infancy for applying fit concept to service innovation issue. Therefore, drawing on the concept of fit, this present research proposed an innovation service fit model within service innovation, market orientation, marketing strategy, and IT adoption are coexisted. The perspective of fit as covariation will be employed to test the hypothesis and identify the effects of fit. We contend that the fit among these four factors will contribution to business performance. Finally, according to the empirical data collected from manufacturing, service, and financial industry in Taiwan, meaningful findings and conclusions will be proposed and discussed.

Keywords: Service innovation, market orientation, IT adoption, marketing strategy, fit

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Authors: Abder-Rahman Ali, Adélaïde Albouy-Kissi, Manuel Grand-Brochier, Viviane Ladan-Marcus, Christine Hoeffl, Claude Marcus, Antoine Vacavant, Jean-Yves Boire

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In this paper, we present a new segmentation approach for focal liver lesions in contrast enhanced ultrasound imaging. This approach, based on a two-cluster Fuzzy C-Means methodology, considers type-II fuzzy sets to handle uncertainty due to the image modality (presence of speckle noise, low contrast, etc.), and to calculate the optimum inter-cluster threshold. Fine boundaries are detected by a local recursive merging of ambiguous pixels. The method has been tested on a representative database. Compared to both Otsu and type-I Fuzzy C-Means techniques, the proposed method significantly reduces the segmentation errors.

Keywords: Defuzzification, fuzzy clustering, image segmentation, type-II fuzzy sets.

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Authors: Farideh Sharififar, Zahra Jamalian, Reza Nikbakhsh, Zahra Nobakht Ramezani

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In sport, human resources management gives special attention to method of applying volunteers, their maintenance, and participation of volunteers with each other and management approaches for better operation of events celebrants. The recognition of volunteers- characteristics and motives is important to notice, because it makes the basis of their participation and commitment at sport environment. The motivation and commitment of 281 volunteers were assessed using the organizational commitment scale, motivation scale and personal characteristics questionnaire.The descriptive results showed that; 64% of volunteers were women with age average 21/24 years old. They were physical education student, single (71/9%), without occupation (53%) and with average of 5 years sport experience. Their most important motivation was career factor and the most important commitment factor was normative factor. The results of examining the hypothesized showed that; age, sport experience and education are effective in the amount of volunteers- commitment. And the motive factors such as career, material, purposive and protective factors also have the power to predict the amount of sports volunteers- commitment value. Therefore it is recommended to provide possible opportunities for volunteers and carrying out appropriate instructional courses by events executive managers.

Keywords: Sport Volunteers, Motivation, Organizational Commitment, Sport Event

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Authors: Kyu Chul Lee, Sung Hyun Yoo, Choon Ki Ahn, Myo Taeg Lim

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Recent experimental evidences have shown that because of a fast convergence and a nice accuracy, neural networks training via extended kalman filter (EKF) method is widely applied. However, as to an uncertainty of the system dynamics or modeling error, the performance of the method is unreliable. In order to overcome this problem in this paper, a new finite impulse response (FIR) filter based learning algorithm is proposed to train radial basis function neural networks (RBFN) for nonlinear function approximation. Compared to the EKF training method, the proposed FIR filter training method is more robust to those environmental conditions. Furthermore , the number of centers will be considered since it affects the performance of approximation.

Keywords: Extended kalmin filter (EKF), classification problem, radial basis function networks (RBFN), finite impulse response (FIR)filter.

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Authors: Hanh Thi My Nguyen

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The purpose of this research is to examine the experiences of parents of children who are deaf or hard of hearing in supporting their children to access education in Vietnam. Parents play a crucial role in supporting their children to gain full access to education. It was widely reported that parents of those children confronted a range of problems to support their children to access education. To author’s best knowledge, there has been a lack of research exploring the experiences of those parents in literature. This research examines factors affecting those parents in supporting their children to access education. To conduct the study, qualitative approach using a phenomenological research design was chosen to explore the central phenomena. Ten parents of children who were diagnosed as deaf or hard of hearing and aged 6-9 years were recruited through the support of the Association of Parents of Children with Hearing Impairment. Participants were interviewed via telephone with a mix of open and closed questions; interviews were audio recorded, transcribed and thematically analysed. The research results show that there are nine main factors that affected the parents in this study in making decisions relating to education for their children including: lack of information resources, perspectives of those parents on communication approaches, the families’ financial capacity, the psychological impact on the participants after their children’ diagnosis, the attitude of family members, attitude of school administrators, lack of local schools and qualified teachers, and current education system for the deaf in Vietnam. Apart from those factors, the lack of knowledge of the participants’ partners about deaf education and the partners’ employment are barriers to educational access and successful communication with their child.

Keywords: Access to education, deaf, hard of hearing, parents experience.

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Authors: Yongsheng Guo, Xiaoxian Zhu, Mandella Osei-Assibey Bonsu

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This study explores the effects of national culture on consumer behaviour by identifying the characteristics of Chinese consumers’ decision making in Europe. It offers a better understanding of how cultural factors affect consumers’ behaviour, and how consumers make decisions in other nations with different culture. It adopted a grounded theory approach and conducted 24 in-depth interviews. Grounded theory models are developed to link the causal conditions, process, and consequences. Results reveal that some cultural factors including conservatism, emotionality, acquaintance community, long-term orientation and principles affect Chinese consumers when making purchase decisions in Europe. Most Chinese consumers plan and prepare their expenditure and stay in Europe as cultural learners, and purchase durable products or assets as investment, and share their experiences within a community. This study identified potential problems such as political and social environment, complex procedures, and restrictions. This study found that external factors influence internal factors and then internal characters determine consumer behaviour. This study proposes that cultural traits developed in convergence evolution through social selection and Chinese consumers persist most characters but adapt some perceptions and actions overtime in other countries. This study suggests that cultural marketing could be adopted by companies to reflect consumers’ preferences. Agencies, shops, and the authorities could take actions to reduce the complexity and restrictions.

Keywords: National culture, consumer behaviour, cultural marketing, decision making.

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Authors: S. N. Vijayan, S. Sendhil Kumar

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Recent years have an upward trend in the research of renewable energy sector, due to the low availability of resources and huge consumption of conventional energies. Considerable renewable energy can be achieved from the available solar power with the utilization of collecting systems. Parabolic trough concentrating collector systems are mostly used to utilize maximum availability of solar power. This paper reviews the contributing factors for the overall performance of parabolic trough collectors. Its performance depends on the operating parameters such as the type of receiver and the collector material, medium of heat transfer, type of application and various climatic conditions.

Keywords: Solar radiation, parabolic trough collector, thermal analysis, efficiency.

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Authors: L. Rodriguez-Benitez, J. Moreno-Garcia, J.J. Castro-Schez, C. Solana, L. Jimenez

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In this paper the use of sequential machines for recognizing actions taken by the objects detected by a general tracking algorithm is proposed. The system may deal with the uncertainty inherent in medium-level vision data. For this purpose, fuzzification of input data is performed. Besides, this transformation allows to manage data independently of the tracking application selected and enables adding characteristics of the analyzed scenario. The representation of actions by means of an automaton and the generation of the input symbols for finite automaton depending on the object and action compared are described. The output of the comparison process between an object and an action is a numerical value that represents the membership of the object to the action. This value is computed depending on how similar the object and the action are. The work concludes with the application of the proposed technique to identify the behavior of vehicles in road traffic scenes.

Keywords: Approximate reasoning, finite state machines, video analysis.

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Authors: Shahin Dezdar, Sulaiman Ainin

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The aim of this paper is to examine factors related to system environment (namely, system quality and vendor support) that influences ERP implementation success in Iranian companies. Implementation success is identified using user satisfaction and organizational impact perspective. The study adopts the survey questionnaire approach to collect empirical data. The questionnaire was distributed to ERP users and a total of 384 responses were used for analysis. The results illustrated that both system quality and vendor support have significant effect on ERP implementation success. This implies that companies must ensure they source for the best available system and a vendor that is dependable, reliable and trustworthy.

Keywords: Enterprise resource planning (ERP), Iran, system quality, vendor support.

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

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Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: Driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable.

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Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.

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German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.

Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing

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Authors: Paul Akagwu, Aaron Aboshio

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In this study, typical c-ɸ soils subjected to loadings were assessed with a view to understand the general stress distribution and settlement behaviour of the soils under drained conditions. Numerical estimations of the non-dimensional bearing capacity factors, N_q and N_γ for varied angles of friction in the soil mass were obtained using PLAXIS. Ultimate bearing capacity values over a Ф range of 0-30 degrees were also computed and compared with analytical results obtained from the traditional simplified uncoupled approach of Terzaghi and Meyerhof. Results from the numerical study agree well with theoretical findings.

Keywords: Bearing capacity factors, finite element method, safe bearing pressure, structure-soil interaction.

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Authors: S. H. Alwan, J. Jasni, M. Z. A. Ab Kadir, N. Aziz

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The aim of this paper is to present a parametric study to determine the major factors that influence the calculations of current rating for both air and underground cables. The current carrying capability of the power cables rely largely on the installation conditions and material properties. In this work, the influences on ampacity of conductor size, soil thermal resistivity and ambient soil temperature for underground installations are shown. The influences on the current-carrying capacity of solar heating (time of day effects and intensity of solar radiation), ambient air temperature and cable size for cables air are also presented. IEC and IEEE standards are taken as reference.

Keywords: Cable ampacity, underground cable, IEC standard, air cables.

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Authors: Yue Wang, Jixin Ma, Brian Knight

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This paper presents a visualized computer aided case tool for non-expert, called Visual Time, for representing and reasoning about incomplete and uncertain temporal information. It is both expressive and versatile, allowing logical conjunctions and disjunctions of both absolute and relative temporal relations, such as “Before”, “Meets”, “Overlaps”, “Starts”, “During”, and “Finishes”, etc. In terms of a visualized framework, Visual Time provides a user-friendly environment for describing scenarios with rich temporal structure in natural language, which can be formatted as structured temporal phrases and modeled in terms of Temporal Relationship Diagrams (TRD). A TRD can be automatically and visually transformed into a corresponding Time Graph, supported by automatic consistency checker that derives a verdict to confirm if a given scenario is temporally consistent or inconsistent.

Keywords: Time Visualization, Uncertainty, Incompleteness, Consistency Checking.

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Authors: Mariela V. De Mier, Veronica S. Sanchez Abchi, Ana M. Borzone

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This work aims to explore the factors that have an incidence in reading comprehension process, with different type of texts. In a recent study with 2nd, 3rd and 4th grade children, it was observed that reading comprehension of narrative texts was better than comprehension of expository texts. Nevertheless it seems that not only the type of text but also other textual factors would account for comprehension depending on the cognitive processing demands posed by the text. In order to explore this assumption, three narrative and three expository texts were elaborated with different degree of complexity. A group of 40 fourth grade Spanish-speaking children took part in the study. Children were asked to read the texts and answer orally three literal and three inferential questions for each text. The quantitative and qualitative analysis of children responses showed that children had difficulties in both, narrative and expository texts. The problem was to answer those questions that involved establishing complex relationships among information units that were present in the text or that should be activated from children’s previous knowledge to make an inference. Considering the data analysis, it could be concluded that there is some interaction between the type of text and the cognitive processing load of a specific text.

Keywords: comprehension, textual factors, type of text, processing demands.

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Authors: Ganesh Kothapalli, Mohammed Y. Hassan

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The hydraulic actuated excavator, being a non-linear mobile machine, encounters many uncertainties. There are uncertainties in the hydraulic system in addition to the uncertain nature of the load. The simulation results obtained in this study show that there is a need for intelligent control of such machines and in particular interval type-2 fuzzy controller is most suitable for minimizing the position error of a typical excavator-s bucket under load variations. We consider the model parameter uncertainties such as hydraulic fluid leakage and friction. These are uncertainties which also depend up on the temperature and alter bulk modulus and viscosity of the hydraulic fluid. Such uncertainties together with the load variations cause chattering of the bucket position. The interval type-2 fuzzy controller effectively eliminates the chattering and manages to control the end-effecter (bucket) position with positional error in the order of few millimeters.

Keywords: excavator, fuzzy control, hydraulics, mining, type-2

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Authors: Musthaya Patchanee

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This research aimed to study form of traffic distribution and environmental factors of road that affect traffic accidents in Dusit District, only areas responsible of Samsen Police Station. Data used in this analysis is the secondary data of traffic accident case from year 2011. Observed area units are 15 traffic lines that are under responsible of Samsen Police Station. Technique and method used are the Cartographic Method, the Correlation Analysis, and the Multiple Regression Analysis. The results of form of traffic accidents show that, the Samsen Road area had most traffic accidents (24.29%), second was Rachvithi Road(18.10%), third was Sukhothai Road (15.71%), fourth was Rachasrima Road (12.38%), and fifth was Amnuaysongkram Road(7.62%). The result from Dusit District, onlyareasresponsibleofSamsen police station, has suggested that the scale of accidents have high positive correlation with statistic significant at level 0.05 and the frequency of travel (r=0.857). Traffic intersection point (r=0.763)and traffic control equipments (r=0.713) are relevant factors respectively. By using the Multiple Regression Analysis, travel frequency is the only one that has considerable influences on traffic accidents in Dusit district only Samsen Police Station area. Also, a factor in frequency of travel can explain the change in traffic accidents scale to 73.40 (R² = 0.734). By using the Multiple regression summation from analysis was Ŷ=-7.977+0.044X6

Keywords: Form of Traffic Distribution, Environmental Factors of road, Traffic Accidents, Dusit District.

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Authors: N. A. Salim, M. M. Othman, I. Musirin, M. S. Serwan

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Uncertainty of system operating conditions is one of the causative reasons which may render to the instability of a transmission system. For that reason, accurate assessment of transmission reliability margin (TRM) is essential to ensure effective power transfer between areas during the occurrence of system uncertainties. The power transfer is also called as the available transfer capability (ATC) which is the information required by the utilities and marketers to instigate selling and buying the electric energy. This paper proposes a computationally effective approach to estimate TRM and ATC by considering the uncertainties of system cascading collapse and transmission line outages. In accordance to the results that have been obtained, the proposed method is essential for the transmission providers which could help the power marketers and planning sectors in the operation and reserving transmission services based on the ATC calculated.

Keywords: Available transfer capability, System cascading collapse, Transmission line outages, Transmission reliability margin.

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