Search results for: Multi-input power system stabilizer (MPSS)

Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar, Khaled A. AL-Rumaih

Abstract:

This paper presents performance comparison of three estimation techniques used for peak load forecasting in power systems. The three optimum estimation techniques are, genetic algorithms (GA), least error squares (LS) and, least absolute value filtering (LAVF). The problem is formulated as an estimation problem. Different forecasting models are considered. Actual recorded data is used to perform the study. The performance of the above three optimal estimation techniques is examined. Advantages of each algorithms are reported and discussed.

Keywords: Forecasting, Least error squares, Least absolute Value, Genetic algorithms

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Authors: Sudhir Agashe, Ashok Ghatol, Sujata Agashe

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In this paper the development of a heat exchanger as a pilot plant for educational purpose is discussed and the use of neural network for controlling the process is being presented. The aim of the study is to highlight the need of a specific Pseudo Random Binary Sequence (PRBS) to excite a process under control. As the neural network is a data driven technique, the method for data generation plays an important role. In light of this a careful experimentation procedure for data generation was crucial task. Heat exchange is a complex process, which has a capacity and a time lag as process elements. The proposed system is a typical pipe-in- pipe type heat exchanger. The complexity of the system demands careful selection, proper installation and commissioning. The temperature, flow, and pressure sensors play a vital role in the control performance. The final control element used is a pneumatically operated control valve. While carrying out the experimentation on heat exchanger a welldrafted procedure is followed giving utmost attention towards safety of the system. The results obtained are encouraging and revealing the fact that if the process details are known completely as far as process parameters are concerned and utilities are well stabilized then feedback systems are suitable, whereas neural network control paradigm is useful for the processes with nonlinearity and less knowledge about process. The implementation of NN control reinforces the concepts of process control and NN control paradigm. The result also underlined the importance of excitation signal typically for that process. Data acquisition, processing, and presentation in a typical format are the most important parameters while validating the results.

Keywords: Process identification, neural network, heat exchanger.

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Authors: Olga Orynycz, Andrzej Wasiak

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Mathematical model describing energetic efficiency (defined as a ratio of energy obtained in the form of biofuel to the sum of energy inputs necessary to facilitate production) of agricultural subsystem as a function of technological parameters was developed. Production technology is characterized by parameters of machinery, topological characteristics of the plantation as well as transportation routes inside and outside of plantation. The relationship between the energetic efficiency of agricultural and industrial subsystems is also derived. Due to the assumed large area of the individual field, the operations last for several days increasing inter-fields routes because of several returns. The total distance driven outside of the fields is, however, small as compared to the distance driven inside of the fields. This results in small energy consumption during inter-fields transport that, however, causes a substantial decrease of the energetic effectiveness of the whole system.

Keywords: Biofuel, energetic efficiency, EROEI, mathematical modelling, production system.

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Authors: Sajjad Rostami-Sani, Mojtaba Valinataj, Amir-Hossein Khojir-Angasi

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The cache has an important role in the reduction of access delay between a processor and memory in high-performance embedded systems. In these systems, the energy consumption is one of the most important concerns, and it will become more important with smaller processor feature sizes and higher frequencies. Meanwhile, the cache system dissipates a significant portion of energy compared to the other components of a processor. There are some elements that can affect the energy consumption of the cache such as replacement policy and degree of associativity. Due to these points, it can be inferred that selecting an appropriate configuration for the cache is a crucial part of designing a system. In this paper, we investigate the effect of different cache replacement policies on both cache’s performance and energy consumption. Furthermore, the impact of different Instruction Set Architectures (ISAs) on cache’s performance and energy consumption has been investigated.

Keywords: L1-cache, energy consumption, replacement policy, Instruction set architecture, multicore processor.

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Authors: Peyman Shadman Heidari, Mohammad Khorasani

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The principal purpose of this article is to present a new method based on Adaptive Neural Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to generate additional artificial earthquake accelerograms from presented data, which are compatible with specified response spectra. The proposed method uses the learning abilities of ANFIS to develop the knowledge of the inverse mapping from response spectrum to earthquake records. In addition, wavelet packet transform is used to decompose specified earthquake records and then ANFISs are trained to relate the response spectrum of records to their wavelet packet coefficients. Finally, an interpretive example is presented which uses an ensemble of recorded accelerograms to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Adaptive Neural Network Fuzzy Inference System, Wavelet Packet Transform, Response Spectrum.

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Authors: Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

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Transport and logistics are the lifeblood of societies. There is a strong correlation between overall growth in economic activity and growth of transport. The movement of people and goods has the potential for creating wealth and prosperity, therefore the state of transportation infrastructure and especially the condition of road networks is often a governmental priority. The design, building and maintenance of national roads constitute a substantial share of government budgets. Taking into account the magnitude and importance of these investments, the expedience, efficiency and sustainability of these projects are of great public interest. This paper provides an overview of supply chain management principles applied to road construction. In addition, road construction performance measurement systems and ICT solutions are discussed. Road construction in Estonia is analyzed. The authors propose the development of a national performance measurement system for road construction.

Keywords: ICT in road construction, key performance indicators, quality performance measurement, road construction supply chain.

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Authors: Siobhan O’Shea, Sangeetha Vijaysri Nair, Hee Cheol Kim, Charles Thomas Nugent, Cheuk Yan William Tong, Sam Douthwaite, Andrew Worlock

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The Aptima® HIV-1 Quant Dx Assay is a fully automated assay on the Panther system. It is based on Transcription- Mediated Amplification and real time detection technologies. This assay is intended for monitoring HIV-1 viral load in plasma specimens and for the detection of HIV-1 in plasma and serum specimens. Nine-hundred and seventy nine specimens selected at random from routine testing at St Thomas’ Hospital, London were anonymised and used to compare the performance of the Aptima HIV-1 Quant Dx assay and Roche COBAS® AmpliPrep/COBAS® TaqMan® HIV-1 Test, v2.0. Two-hundred and thirty four specimens gave quantitative HIV-1 viral load results in both assays. The quantitative results reported by the Aptima Assay were comparable to those reported by the Roche COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HIV-1 Test, v2.0 with a linear regression slope of 1.04 and an intercept on -0.097. The Aptima assay detected HIV-1 in more samples than the COBAS assay. This was not due to lack of specificity of the Aptima assay because this assay gave 99.83% specificity on testing plasma specimens from 600 HIV-1 negative individuals. To understand the reason for this higher detection rate a side-by-side comparison of low level panels made from the HIV-1 3rd international standard (NIBSC10/152) and clinical samples of various subtypes were tested in both assays. The Aptima assay was more sensitive than the COBAS assay. The good sensitivity, specificity and agreement with other commercial assays make the HIV-1 Quant Dx Assay appropriate for both viral load monitoring and detection of HIV-1 infections.

Keywords: HIV viral load, Aptima, Roche, Panther system.

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Authors: Gebriel M. Shamia

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The Improved Generalized Diversity Index (IGDI) has been proposed as a tool that can be used to identify areas that have high conservation value and measure the ecological condition of an area. IGDI is based on the species relative abundances. This paper is concerned with particular attention is given to comparisons involving the MacArthur model of species abundances. The properties and performance of various species indices were assessed. Both IGDI and species richness increased with sampling area according to a power function. IGDI were also found to be acceptable ecological indicators of conditions and consistently outperformed coefficient of conservatism indices.

Keywords: Statistical ecology, MacArthur model, Functional Diversity.

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Authors: Volker Heierhoff, Aurilla Aurelie Bechina Arntzen, Gerrit Muller

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It well recognized that one feature that makes a successful company is its ability to successfully align its business goals with its information communication technologies platform. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems contribute to achieve better performance by integrating various business functions and providing support for information flows. However, the technological systems complexity is known to prevent the business users to exploit in an efficient way the Enterprise Resource Planning Systems (ERP). This paper aims to investigate the role of training in improving the usage of ERP systems. To this end, we have designed an instrument survey to employees of a Norwegian multinational global provider of technology solutions. Based on the analysis of collected data, we have delineated a training model that could be high relevance for both researchers and practitioners as a step towards a better understanding of ERP system implementation.

Keywords: Business User Training, Enterprise resource planning system, Global consulting company, Role and responsibilities

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Authors: Olga Velts, Mai Uibu, Juha Kallas, Rein Kuusik

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An innovative approach utilizing highly alkaline oil shale waste ash and carbon dioxide gas (CO2), associated with power production, as a resource for production of precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC) is introduced in this paper. The specifics and feasibility of the integrated ash valorization and CO2 sequestration process by indirect aqueous carbonation of lime-consisting ash were elaborated and the main parameters established. Detailed description of the formed precipitates was included. Complimentary carbonation experiments with commercial CaO fine powder were conducted for comparative characterization of the final products obtained on the basis of two different raw materials. Finally, the expected CO2 uptake was evaluated.

Keywords: Calcium Carbonate, Carbon Dioxide Sequestration, Oil Shale Ash, Waste Valorization.

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Authors: Khenfer-Koummich Fatima, Mesbahi Larbi, Hendel Fatiha

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This paper presents a recognition system for isolated words like robot commands. It’s carried out by Time Delay Neural Networks; TDNN. To teleoperate a robot for specific tasks as turn, close, etc… In industrial environment and taking into account the noise coming from the machine. The choice of TDNN is based on its generalization in terms of accuracy, in more it acts as a filter that allows the passage of certain desirable frequency characteristics of speech; the goal is to determine the parameters of this filter for making an adaptable system to the variability of speech signal and to noise especially, for this the back propagation technique was used in learning phase. The approach was applied on commands pronounced in two languages separately: The French and Arabic. The results for two test bases of 300 spoken words for each one are 87%, 97.6% in neutral environment and 77.67%, 92.67% when the white Gaussian noisy was added with a SNR of 35 dB.

Keywords: Neural networks, Noise, Speech Recognition.

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Authors: Imran Sarwar Bajwa

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Internet is one of the major sources of information for the person belonging to almost all the fields of life. Major language that is used to publish information on internet is language. This thing becomes a problem in a country like Pakistan, where Urdu is the national language. Only 10% of Pakistan mass can understand English. The reason is millions of people are deprived of precious information available on internet. This paper presents a system for translation from English to Urdu. A module LESSA is used that uses a rule based algorithm to read the input text in English language, understand it and translate it into Urdu language. The designed approach was further incorporated to translate the complete website from English language o Urdu language. An option appears in the browser to translate the webpage in a new window. The designed system will help the millions of users of internet to get benefit of the internet and approach the latest information and knowledge posted daily on internet.

Keywords: Natural Language Translation, Text Understanding, Knowledge extraction, Text Processing

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.

Keywords: Covariance, logistic model, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: Zh. Kumganbayev, A. Abdildabekova, E. Teleuova, Zh. Zhappassov

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In this article, by means of examination of Bolshevists Turkistanskie Vedomosti" newspaper and “Erikti Oylar Organi" and “Turkistanskyi Vestnik" newspapers which had been published during 1917-1918, the fact that “Turkistan Governorship" established in city of Kokand in November of 1917, within the framework of former tsarist Russia Turkistan general-governorship, was the legal government formed as a requisition of people of Turkistan was proved. An examination of these two newspapers providing information regarding history of “Turkistan Autonomy" but having opposite to each other views makes it possible to obtain valuable data concerning history of autonomy which was inappropriately misrepresented during Soviet period.

Keywords: Turkestan autonomy, tsarist Russia, Turkic peoples, People's Government of Turkestan.

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Authors: Li Jie, Zhang Wei

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In this paper, the problem of posture stabilization for a kinematic model of differential drive robots is studied. A more complex model of the kinematics of differential drive robots is used for the design of stabilizing control. This model is formulated in terms of the physical parameters of the system such as the radius of the wheels, and velocity of the wheels are the control inputs of it. In this paper, the framework of Lyapunov-based control design has been used to solve posture stabilization problem for the comprehensive model of differential drive robots. The results of the simulations show that the devised controller successfully solves the posture regulation problem. Finally, robustness and performance of the controller have been studied under system parameter uncertainty.

Keywords: Differential drive robots, nonlinear control, Lyapunov-based control design, posture regulation.

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Authors: Azizollah Khormali, Seyyed Shahab Tabatabaee Moradi, Dmitry Petrakov

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One of the most important parameters in petroleum reservoirs is the pressure distribution along the reservoir, as the pressure varies with the time and location. A popular method to determine the pressure distribution in a reservoir in the unsteady state regime of flow is applying Darcy’s equation and solving this equation numerically. The numerical simulation of reservoirs is based on these numerical solutions of different partial differential equations (PDEs) representing the multiphase flow of fluids. Pressure profile has obtained in a one dimensional system solving Darcy’s equation explicitly. Changes of pressure profile in three situations are investigated in this work. These situations include section length changes, step time changes and time approach to infinity. The effects of these changes in pressure profile are shown and discussed in the paper.

Keywords: Explicit solution, Numerical simulation, Petroleum reservoir, Pressure distribution.

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Authors: C. P. Autry, A.W. Roscoe

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Authentication protocols based on public key infrastructure (PKI) and trusted third party (TTP) are no longer adequate for industrial scale IoT networks thanks to issues such as low compute and power availability, the use of widely distributed and commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) systems, and the increasingly sophisticated attackers and attacks we now have to counter. For example, there is increasing concern about nation-state-based interference and future quantum computing capability. We have examined this space from first principles and have developed several approaches to group and point-to-point authentication for IoT that do not depend on the use of a centralised client-server model. We emphasise the use of quantum resistant primitives such as strong cryptographic hashing and the use multi-factor authentication.

Keywords: Authentication, enterprise IoT cybersecurity, public key infrastructure, trusted third party.

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Authors: M. Karassartova, D. Shormanbayeva, A. Beissenova, S.Balshikeyev

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Forming a legal culture among citizens is a complicated and lengthy process, influencing all spheres of social life. It includes promoting justice, learning rights and duties, the introduction of juridical norms and knowledge, and also a process of developing a system of legal acts and constitutional norms. Currently, the evaluative and emotional influence of attempts to establish a legal culture among the citizens of Kazakhstan is limited by real legal practice. As a result, the values essential to a sound civil society are absent from the consciousness of the Kazakh people who are thus, in turn, not able to develop respect for these values. One of the disadvantages of the modern Kazakh educational system is a tendency to underrate the actual forces shaping the worldview of Kazakh youths. The mass-media, which are going through a personnel crisis, cannot provide society with the legal and political information necessary to form the sort of legal culture required for a true civil society.

Keywords: Kazakhstan society, Legal education, legal culture.

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Authors: F. Halabchi, A. Esteghamati, A. Razzaghi, A. Noori

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Nowadays, doping is an intricate dilemma. Wrestling is the nationally popular sport in Iran. Also the prevalence of doping may be high, due to its power demanding characteristics. So, we aimed to assess the knowledge and attitudes toward doping among the club wrestlers. In a cross sectional study, 426 wrestlers were studied. For this reason, a researcher made questionnaire was used. In this study, researchers selected the clubs by randomized clustered sampling and distributed the questionnaire among wrestlers. Knowledge of wrestlers in three categories of doping definitions, recognition of prohibited drugs and side effects was poor or moderate in 70.8%, 95.8% and 99.5%, respectively. Wrestlers have poor knowledge in doping. Furthermore, they believe some myths which are unfavorable. It seems necessary to design a comprehensive educational program for all of the athletes and coaches.

Keywords: Attitude, Doping, Knowledge, Wrestling

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Authors: Young-Jin Baik, Minsung Kim, Young-Soo Lee, Ki-Chang Chang, Seong-Ryong Park

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The compression-absorption heat pump (C-A HP), one of the promising heat recovery equipments that make process hot water using low temperature heat of wastewater, was evaluated by computer simulation. A simulation program was developed based on the continuity and the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Both the absorber and desorber were modeled using UA-LMTD method. In order to prevent an unfeasible temperature profile and to reduce calculation errors from the curved temperature profile of a mixture, heat loads were divided into lots of segments. A single-stage compressor was considered. A compressor cooling load was also taken into account. An isentropic efficiency was computed from the map data. Simulation conditions were given based on the system consisting of ordinarily designed components. The simulation results show that most of the total entropy generation occurs during the compression and cooling process, thus suggesting the possibility that system performance can be enhanced if a rectifier is introduced.

Keywords: Waste heat recovery, Heat Pump.

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Authors: Humayun Rashid, Lin Zhao

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Retention in the IT profession is critical for organizations to stay competitive and operate reliably in the dynamic business environment. Most organizations rely on compensation and rewards as primary tools to enhance retention of employees. In this quantitative survey-based study conducted at a large global bank, we analyze the perceptions of 575 information technology (IT) software professionals in India and Malaysia and find that fairness of rewards has very little impact on retention likelihood. It is far more important to actively involve employees in organizational activities. In addition, our findings indicate that involvement is far more important than information flow: the typical organizational communication to keep employees informed.

Keywords: fairness of rewards, information flow, informationinvolvement, retention

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Authors: Siliang Wang, Minghui Wang

Abstract:

This work proposes a novel market-based air traffic flow control model considering competitive airlines in air traffic network. In the flow model, an agent based framework for resources (link/time pair) pricing is described. Resource agent and auctioneer for groups of resources are also introduced to simulate the flow management in Air Traffic Control (ATC). Secondly, the distributed group pricing algorithm is introduced, which efficiently reflect the competitive nature of the airline industry. Resources in the system are grouped according to the degree of interaction, and each auctioneer adjust s the price of one group of resources respectively until the excess demand of resources becomes zero when the demand and supply of resources of the system changes. Numerical simulation results show the feasibility of solving the air traffic flow control problem using market mechanism and pricing algorithms on the air traffic network.

Keywords: Air traffic control, Nonlinear programming, Marketmechanism, Route policy.

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Authors: Rajab Abdullah Hokoma

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Manufacturing, production and service industries within Libya have struggled with many problems during the past two decades due to many difficulties. These problems have created a negative impact on the productivity and utilization of many industries around the country. This paper studies the implementation levels of the manufacturing control systems known as Manufacturing Resource Planning (MRPII) being adapted within some Libyan industries. A survey methodology has been applied for this research, based on the survey analysis, the results pointed out that the system within these industries has a modest strategy towards most of the areas that are considered as being very crucial in implementing these systems successfully. The findings also show a variation within these implementation levels with a respect to the key-elements that related to MRPII, giving the highest levels in the emphasise on financial data accuracy. The paper has also identified limitations within the investigated manufacturing and managerial areas and has pointed to where senior managers should take immediate actions in order to achieve effective implementation of MRPII within their business area.

Keywords: Control, Industry, Manufacturing, Survey, System

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Authors: Kittipob Kondee, Chutima Prommak

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an optimization technique that can be used to optimize the placements of reference nodes and improve the location determination performance for the multi-floor building. The proposed technique is based on Simulated Annealing algorithm (SA) and is called MSMR-M. The performance study in this work is based on simulation. We compare other node-placement techniques found in the literature with the optimal node-placement solutions obtained from our optimization. The results show that using the optimal node-placement obtained by our proposed technique can improve the positioning error distances up to 20% better than those of the other techniques. The proposed technique can provide an average error distance within 1.42 meters.

Keywords: Indoor positioning System, Optimization System design, Multi-Floor Building, Wireless Sensor Networks.

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Authors: Maisara Mohyeldin Gasim, A. K. Amirruddin, A. Shahrani

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This paper investigates the effect of replacing crankshaft with cam on the indicated torque during compression and power strokes in internal combustion engines. A Cycloidal cam profile was used in Revetec engine to calculate and compare the torque to a conventional engine, using a computational method. Firstly, the cylinder pressure was calculated using Ferguson equation, and then the torque calculated depending on cylinder pressure values in every crank angle. the results showed that by using Cycloidal cam profile in Revetec engine the torque can increased by 14% compared with conventional engines, which means an increase in engine efficiency.

Keywords: Revetec engine, indicated torque, cam profile.

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Authors: S. Sfarni, E. Bellenger, J. Fortin, M. Guessasma

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The use of the mechanical simulation (in particular the finite element analysis) requires the management of assumptions in order to analyse a real complex system. In finite element analysis (FEA), two modeling steps require assumptions to be able to carry out the computations and to obtain some results: the building of the physical model and the building of the simulation model. The simplification assumptions made on the analysed system in these two steps can generate two kinds of errors: the physical modeling errors (mathematical model, domain simplifications, materials properties, boundary conditions and loads) and the mesh discretization errors. This paper proposes a mesh adaptive method based on the use of an h-adaptive scheme in combination with an error estimator in order to choose the mesh of the simulation model. This method allows us to choose the mesh of the simulation model in order to control the cost and the quality of the finite element analysis.

Keywords: Finite element, discretization errors, adaptivity.

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Authors: T. Ahmed, Z. Butt, M. Ali, S. Attiq, M. Ali

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A series of Ti based shape memory alloys with composition of Ti50Ni49Cr1, Ti50Ni47Cr3 and Ti50Ni45Cr5 were developed by vacuum arc-melting under a purified argon atmosphere. The histometric and corrosion evaluation of Ti-Ni-Cr shape memory alloys have been considered in this research work. The alloys were developed by vacuum arc melting and implanted subcutaneously in rabbits for 4, 8 and 12 weeks. Metallic implants were embedded in order to determine the outcome of implantation on histometric and corrosion evaluation of Ti-Ni-Cr metallic strips. Encapsulating membrane formation around the alloys was minimal in the case of all materials. After histomorphometric analyses it was possible to demonstrate that there were no statistically significant differences between the materials. Corrosion rate was also determined in this study which is within acceptable range. The results showed the Ti- Ni-Cr alloy was neither cytotoxic, nor have any systemic reaction on living system in any of the test performed. Implantation shows good compatibility and a potential of being used directly in vivo system.

Keywords: Shape memory alloy, Ti-Ni-Fe, histomorphometric, corrosion.

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Authors: Mingde Du, Dong Han

Abstract:

A low profile, dual polarized, slot coupled patch antenna is designed and developed in this paper. The antenna has a measured bandwidth of 17.2% for return loss > 15 dB and pair ports isolation >23 dB. The gain of the antenna is over 10 dBi and the half power beam widths (HPBW) of the antenna are 80±3^o in the horizontal plane and 39±2^o in the vertical plane. The cross polarization discrimination (XPD) is less than 20 dB in HPBW. Within the operating band, the performances of good impedance match, high ports isolation, low cross polarization, and stable radiation patterns are achieved.

Keywords: Dual polarized, patch antenna, slot coupled, base station antenna.

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Authors: O. Hassanein, Sreenatha G. Anavatti, Tapabrata Ray

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The dynamics of the Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are highly nonlinear and time varying and the hydrodynamic coefficients of vehicles are difficult to estimate accurately because of the variations of these coefficients with different navigation conditions and external disturbances. This study presents the on-line system identification of AUV dynamics to obtain the coupled nonlinear dynamic model of AUV as a black box. This black box has an input-output relationship based upon on-line adaptive fuzzy model and adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model techniques to overcome the uncertain external disturbance and the difficulties of modelling the hydrodynamic forces of the AUVs instead of using the mathematical model with hydrodynamic parameters estimation. The models- parameters are adapted according to the back propagation algorithm based upon the error between the identified model and the actual output of the plant. The proposed ANFN model adopts a functional link neural network (FLNN) as the consequent part of the fuzzy rules. Thus, the consequent part of the ANFN model is a nonlinear combination of input variables. Fuzzy control system is applied to guide and control the AUV using both adaptive models and mathematical model. Simulation results show the superiority of the proposed adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model in tracking of the behavior of the AUV accurately even in the presence of noise and disturbance.

Keywords: AUV, AUV dynamic model, fuzzy control, fuzzy modelling, adaptive fuzzy control, back propagation, system identification, neural fuzzy model, FLNN.

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Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

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Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

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