Search results for: improved cloud model.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8724

Search results for: improved cloud model.

8304 Analytical Model for Predicting Whole Building Heat Transfer

Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Martti Viljanen

Abstract:

A new analytical model is developed which provides close-formed solutions for both transient indoor and envelope temperature changes in buildings. Time-dependent boundary temperature is presented as Fourier series which can approximate real weather conditions. The final close-formed solutions are simple, concise, and comprehensive. The model was compared with numerical results and good accuracy was obtained. The model can be used as design and control guidelines in engineering applications for analysing mechanical heat transfer properties for buildings.

Keywords: Analytical model, heat transfer, whole building.

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8303 Supply Chain Modeling and Improving Manufacturing Industry in Developing Countries: A Research Agenda

Authors: F.B. Georgise, K. D. Thoben, M. Seifert

Abstract:

This paper presents a research agenda on the SCOR model adaptation. SCOR model is designated to measure supply chain performance and logistics impact across the boundaries of individual organizations. It is at its growing stage of its life cycle and is enjoying the leverage of becoming the industry standard. The SCOR model has been developed and used widely in developed countries context. This research focuses on the SCOR model adaptation for the manufacturing industry in developing countries. With a necessary understanding of the characteristics, difficulties and problems of the manufacturing industry in developing countries- supply chain; consequently, we will try to designs an adapted model with its building blocks: business process model, performance measures and best practices.

Keywords: developing countries, manufacturing industry, SCOR model adaptation

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8302 Development of Blower for Air Management System of Fuel Cell Modules

Authors: Joo-Han Kim, Jung-Moo Seo, Ha Gyeong Sung, Se Hyun Rhyu

Abstract:

This study presents a blower for air management system of fuel cell modules. A blower is composed of BLDC motor and impeller. Magnetic equivalent circuit model and finite element analysis are used to design the motor, and an improved structure is considered to reduce a mechanical loss induced from bearing units. Finally, air blower system combined with the motor and an impeller is manufactured and output properties, such as an air pressure and an amount of flowing air, are measured. Through the experimental results, a validity of the simulated one is confirmed.

Keywords: Fuel cell modules, BLDC motor, Impeller, Air management

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8301 Simulation and Analysis of Polyetheretherketone Implants for Diaphysis Femur Fracture

Authors: Abhishek Soni, Bhagat Singh

Abstract:

In the present work, reverse engineering approach has been used to create a 3D model of a fractured femur diaphysis bone using the computed tomography (CT) scan data. Thereafter, a counter fit fixation plate of polyetheretherketone (PEEK) composite has been designed and analyzed considering static physiological loading conditions. Static stress distribution and deformation analysis of the plate have been performed. From the analysis, it has been found that the stresses and deformation developed are quite low. This implies that these designed fixation plates will be able to provide stable fixation and thus resulting in improved fracture union.

Keywords: Customized implant, deformation, femur diaphysis, stress.

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8300 Authentication Analysis of the 802.11i Protocol

Authors: Zeeshan Furqan, Shahabuddin Muhammad, Ratan Guha

Abstract:

IEEE has designed 802.11i protocol to address the security issues in wireless local area networks. Formal analysis is important to ensure that the protocols work properly without having to resort to tedious testing and debugging which can only show the presence of errors, never their absence. In this paper, we present the formal verification of an abstract protocol model of 802.11i. We translate the 802.11i protocol into the Strand Space Model and then prove the authentication property of the resulting model using the Strand Space formalism. The intruder in our model is imbued with powerful capabilities and repercussions to possible attacks are evaluated. Our analysis proves that the authentication of 802.11i is not compromised in the presented model. We further demonstrate how changes in our model will yield a successful man-in-the-middle attack.

Keywords: authentication, formal analysis, formal verification, security.

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8299 Learning the Dynamics of Articulated Tracked Vehicles

Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, Gaussian processes, robot control learning, tracked vehicles.

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8298 Optimal Efficiency Control of Pulse Width Modulation - Inverter Fed Motor Pump Drive Using Neural Network

Authors: O. S. Ebrahim, M. A. Badr, A. S. Elgendy, K. O. Shawky, P. K. Jain

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates an improved Loss Model Control (LMC) for a 3-phase induction motor (IM) driving pump load. Compared with other power loss reduction algorithms for IM, the presented one has the advantages of fast and smooth flux adaptation, high accuracy, and versatile implementation. The performance of LMC depends mainly on the accuracy of modeling the motor drive and losses. A loss-model for IM drive that considers the surplus power loss caused by inverter voltage harmonics using closed-form equations and also includes the magnetic saturation has been developed. Further, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) controller is synthesized and trained offline to determine the optimal flux level that achieves maximum drive efficiency. The drive’s voltage and speed control loops are connecting via the stator frequency to avoid the possibility of excessive magnetization. Besides, the resistance change due to temperature is considered by a first-order thermal model. The obtained thermal information enhances motor protection and control. These together have the potential of making the proposed algorithm reliable. Simulation and experimental studies are performed on 5.5 kW test motor using the proposed control method. The test results are provided and compared with the fixed flux operation to validate the effectiveness.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, ANN, efficiency optimization, induction motor, IM, Pulse Width Modulated, PWM, harmonic losses.

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8297 Fast Segmentation for the Piecewise Smooth Mumford-Shah Functional

Authors: Yingjie Zhang

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with an improved algorithm based on the piecewise-smooth Mumford and Shah (MS) functional for an efficient and reliable segmentation. In order to speed up convergence, an additional force, at each time step, is introduced further to drive the evolution of the curves instead of only driven by the extensions of the complementary functions u + and u - . In our scheme, furthermore, the piecewise-constant MS functional is integrated to generate the extra force based on a temporary image that is dynamically created by computing the union of u + and u - during segmenting. Therefore, some drawbacks of the original algorithm, such as smaller objects generated by noise and local minimal problem also are eliminated or improved. The resulting algorithm has been implemented in Matlab and Visual Cµ, and demonstrated efficiently by several cases.

Keywords: Active contours, energy minimization, image segmentation, level sets.

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8296 Building an e-Learning System Model with Implications for Research and Instructional Use

Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen, Keh-Wen “Carin” Chuang

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates a model of an e-Learning system based on nowadays learning theory and distant education practice. The relationships in the model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular e- Learning environments. It is meant to be a generic e-Learning system model with implications for any distant education course instructional design. It allows online instructors to move away from the discrepancy between the courses and body of knowledge. The interrelationships of four primary sectors that are at the e-Learning system are presented in this paper. This integrated model includes [1] pedagogy, [2] technology, [3] teaching, and [4] learning. There are interactions within each of these sectors depicted by system loop map.

Keywords: e-Learning system, online courses instructionaldesign, integrated model, interrelationships.

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8295 A Simulation Model for the H-gate PDSOI MOSFET

Authors: Bu Jianhui, Bi Jinshun, Liu Mengxin, Luo Jiajun, Han Zhengsheng

Abstract:

The floating body effect is a serious problem for the PDSOI MOSFET, and the H-gate layout is frequently used as the body contact to eliminate this effect. Unfortunately, most of the standard commercial SOI MOSFET model is for the device with finger gate, the necessity of the new models for the H-gate device arises. A simulation model for the H-gate PDSOI MOSFET is proposed based on the 0.35μm PDSOI process developed by the Institute of Microelectronics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IMECAS), and then the model is well verified by the ring-oscillator.

Keywords: PDSOI H-gate Device model Body contact.

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8294 Drag models for Simulation Gas-Solid Flow in the Bubbling Fluidized Bed of FCC Particles

Authors: S. Benzarti, H. Mhiri, H. Bournot

Abstract:

In the current work, a numerical parametric study was performed in order to model the fluid mechanics in the riser of a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB). The gas-solid flow was simulated by mean of a multi-fluid Eulerian model incorporating the kinetic theory for solid particles. The bubbling fluidized bed was simulated two dimensionally by mean of a Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) commercial software package, Fluent. The effects of using different inter-phase drag function (the drag model of Gidaspow, Syamlal and O-Brien and the EMMS drag model) on the model predictions were evaluated and compared. The results showed that the drag models of Gidaspow and Syamlal and O-Brien overestimated the drag force for the FCC particles and predicted a greater bed expansion in comparison to the EMMS drag model.

Keywords: Bubbling fluidized bed, CFD, drag model, EMMS

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8293 Moving Beyond the Limits of Disability Inclusion: Using the Concept of Belonging Through Friendship to Improve the Outcome of the Social Model of Disability

Authors: Luke S. Carlos A. Thompson

Abstract:

The medical model of disability, though beneficial for the medical professional, is often exclusionary, restrictive and dehumanizing when applied to the lived experience of disability. As a result, a critique of this model was constructed called the social model of disability. Much of the language used to articulate the purpose behind the social model of disability can be summed up within the word inclusion. However, this essay asserts that inclusiveness is an incomplete aspiration. The social model, as it currently stands, does not aid in creating a society where those with impairments actually belong. Rather, the social model aids in lessening the visibility, or negative consequence of, difference. Therefore, the social model does not invite society to welcome those with physical and intellectual impairments. It simply aids society in ignoring the existence of impairment by removing explicit forms of exclusion. Rather than simple inclusion, then, this essay uses John Swinton’s concept of friendship and Jean Vanier’s understanding of belonging to better articulate the intended outcome of the social model—a society where everyone can belong.

Keywords: Belong, community, disability, exclusion, friendship, inclusion.

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8292 Stochastic Resonance in Nonlinear Signal Detection

Authors: Youguo Wang, Lenan Wu

Abstract:

Stochastic resonance (SR) is a phenomenon whereby the signal transmission or signal processing through certain nonlinear systems can be improved by adding noise. This paper discusses SR in nonlinear signal detection by a simple test statistic, which can be computed from multiple noisy data in a binary decision problem based on a maximum a posteriori probability criterion. The performance of detection is assessed by the probability of detection error Per . When the input signal is subthreshold signal, we establish that benefit from noise can be gained for different noises and confirm further that the subthreshold SR exists in nonlinear signal detection. The efficacy of SR is significantly improved and the minimum of Per can dramatically approach to zero as the sample number increases. These results show the robustness of SR in signal detection and extend the applicability of SR in signal processing.

Keywords: Probability of detection error, signal detection, stochastic resonance.

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8291 Numerical Modeling of the Depth-Averaged Flow Over a Hill

Authors: Anna Avramenko, Heikki Haario

Abstract:

This paper reports the development and application of a 2D1 depth-averaged model. The main goal of this contribution is to apply the depth averaged equations to a wind park model in which the treatment of the geometry, introduced on the mathematical model by the mass and momentum source terms. The depth-averaged model will be used in future to find the optimal position of wind turbines in the wind park. κ − ε and 2D LES turbulence models were consider in this article. 2D CFD2 simulations for one hill was done to check the depth-averaged model in practise.

Keywords: Depth-averaged equations, numerical modeling, CFD

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8290 An Improved Lattice Reduction Aided Detection Scheme for MIMO-OFDM System

Authors: Jang-Kyun Ahn, Seung-Jun Yu, Eui-Young Lee, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

This paper proposes an efficient lattice-reduction-aided detection (LRD) scheme to improve the detection performance of MIMO-OFDM system. In this proposed scheme, V candidate symbols are considered at the first layer, and V probable streams are detected with LRD scheme according to the first detected V candidate symbols. Then, the most probable stream is selected through a ML test. Since the proposed scheme can more accurately detect initial symbol and can reduce transmission of error to rest symbols, the proposed scheme shows more improved performance than conventional LRD with very low complexity.

Keywords: Lattice reduction aided detection, MIMO-OFDM, QRD-M, V-BLAST.

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8289 The Performance of the Character-Access on the Checking Phase in String Searching Algorithms

Authors: Mahmoud M. Mhashi

Abstract:

A new algorithm called Character-Comparison to Character-Access (CCCA) is developed to test the effect of both: 1) converting character-comparison and number-comparison into character-access and 2) the starting point of checking on the performance of the checking operation in string searching. An experiment is performed; the results are compared with five algorithms, namely, Naive, BM, Inf_Suf_Pref, Raita, and Circle. With the CCCA algorithm, the results suggest that the evaluation criteria of the average number of comparisons are improved up to 74.0%. Furthermore, the results suggest that the clock time required by the other algorithms is improved in range from 28% to 68% by the new CCCA algorithm

Keywords: Pattern matching, string searching, charactercomparison, character-access, and checking.

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8288 A Cell-Based Multiphase Interleaving Buck Converter with Bypass Capacitors

Authors: T. Taufik, R. Prasetyo, D. Dolan, D. Garinto

Abstract:

Today-s Voltage Regulator Modules (VRMs) face increasing design challenges as the number of transistors in microprocessors increases per Moore-s Law. These challenges have recently become even more demanding as microprocessors operate at sub voltage range at significantly high current. This paper presents a new multiphase topology with cell configuration for improved performance in low voltage and high current applications. A lab scale hardware prototype of the new topology was design and constructed. Laboratory tests were performed on the proposed converter and compared with a commercially available VRM. Results from the proposed topology exhibit improved performance compared to the commercially available counterpart.

Keywords: Voltage Regulator Modules, dc-dc converters, powerelectronics.

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8287 Modeling and Simulation of a Serial Production Line with Constant Work-In-Process

Authors: Mehmet Savsar

Abstract:

This paper presents a model for an unreliable production line, which is operated according to demand with constant work-in-process (CONWIP). A simulation model is developed based on the discrete model and several case problems are analyzed using the model. The model is utilized to optimize storage space capacities at intermediate stages and the number of kanbans at the last stage, which is used to trigger the production at the first stage. Furthermore, effects of several line parameters on production rate are analyzed using design of experiments.

Keywords: Production line simulator, Push-pull system, JIT system, Constant WIP, Machine failures.

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8286 Measuring the Comprehensibility of a UML-B Model and a B Model

Authors: Rozilawati Razali, Paul W. Garratt

Abstract:

Software maintenance, which involves making enhancements, modifications and corrections to existing software systems, consumes more than half of developer time. Specification comprehensibility plays an important role in software maintenance as it permits the understanding of the system properties more easily and quickly. The use of formal notation such as B increases a specification-s precision and consistency. However, the notation is regarded as being difficult to comprehend. Semi-formal notation such as the Unified Modelling Language (UML) is perceived as more accessible but it lacks formality. Perhaps by combining both notations could produce a specification that is not only accurate and consistent but also accessible to users. This paper presents an experiment conducted on a model that integrates the use of both UML and B notations, namely UML-B, versus a B model alone. The objective of the experiment was to evaluate the comprehensibility of a UML-B model compared to a traditional B model. The measurement used in the experiment focused on the efficiency in performing the comprehension tasks. The experiment employed a cross-over design and was conducted on forty-one subjects, including undergraduate and masters students. The results show that the notation used in the UML-B model is more comprehensible than the B model.

Keywords: Model comprehensibility, formal and semi-formal notation, empirical assessment.

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8285 Improved Pattern Matching Applied to Surface Mounting Devices Components Localization on Automated Optical Inspection

Authors: Pedro M. A. Vitoriano, Tito. G. Amaral

Abstract:

Automated Optical Inspection (AOI) Systems are commonly used on Printed Circuit Boards (PCB) manufacturing. The use of this technology has been proven as highly efficient for process improvements and quality achievements. The correct extraction of the component for posterior analysis is a critical step of the AOI process. Nowadays, the Pattern Matching Algorithm is commonly used, although this algorithm requires extensive calculations and is time consuming. This paper will present an improved algorithm for the component localization process, with the capability of implementation in a parallel execution system.

Keywords: AOI, automated optical inspection, SMD, surface mounting devices, pattern matching, parallel execution.

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8284 Implementing Fault Tolerance with Proxy Signature on the Improvement of RSA System

Authors: H. El-Kamchouchi, Heba Gaber, Fatma Ahmed, Dalia H. El-Kamchouchi

Abstract:

Fault tolerance and data security are two important issues in modern communication systems. During the transmission of data between the sender and receiver, errors may occur frequently. Therefore, the sender must re-transmit the data to the receiver in order to correct these errors, which makes the system very feeble. To improve the scalability of the scheme, we present a proxy signature scheme with fault tolerance over an efficient and secure authenticated key agreement protocol based on the improved RSA system. Authenticated key agreement protocols have an important role in building a secure communications network between the two parties.

Keywords: Proxy signature, fault tolerance, improved RSA, key agreement.

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8283 The Establishment and Application of TRACE/FRAPTRAN Model for Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant

Authors: S. W. Chen, W. K. Lin, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chang, W. Y. Li

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 type NPP and located on the northern coast of Taiwan. First, Kuosheng NPP TRACE model were developed in this research. In order to assess the system response of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model, startup tests data were used to evaluate Kuosheng NPP TRACE model. Second, the overpressurization transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model was performed. Besides, in order to confirm the mechanical property and integrity of fuel rods, FRAPTRAN analysis was also performed in this study.

Keywords: TRACE, Safety analysis, BWR/6, FRAPTRAN.

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8282 Design of 900 MHz High Gain SiGe Power Amplifier with Linearity Improved Bias Circuit

Authors: Guiheng Zhang, Wei Zhang, Jun Fu, Yudong Wang

Abstract:

A 900 MHz three-stage SiGe power amplifier (PA) with high power gain is presented in this paper. Volterra Series is applied to analyze nonlinearity sources of SiGe HBT device model clearly. Meanwhile, the influence of operating current to IMD3 is discussed. Then a β-helper current mirror bias circuit is applied to improve linearity, since the β-helper current mirror bias circuit can offer stable base biasing voltage. Meanwhile, it can also work as predistortion circuit when biasing voltages of three bias circuits are fine-tuned, by this way, the power gain and operating current of PA are optimized for best linearity. The three power stages which fabricated by 0.18 μm SiGe technology are bonded to the printed circuit board (PCB) to obtain impedances by Load-Pull system, then matching networks are done for best linearity with discrete passive components on PCB. The final measured three-stage PA exhibits 21.1 dBm of output power at 1 dB compression point (OP1dB) with power added efficiency (PAE) of 20.6% and 33 dB power gain under 3.3 V power supply voltage.

Keywords: High gain power amplifier, linearization bias circuit, SiGe HBT model, Volterra Series.

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8281 Determining Optimal Demand Rate and Production Decisions: A Geometric Programming Approach

Authors: Farnaz G. Nezami, Mir B. Aryanezhad, Seyed J. Sadjadi

Abstract:

In this paper a nonlinear model is presented to demonstrate the relation between production and marketing departments. By introducing some functions such as pricing cost and market share loss functions it will be tried to show some aspects of market modelling which has not been regarded before. The proposed model will be a constrained signomial geometric programming model. For model solving, after variables- modifications an iterative technique based on the concept of geometric mean will be introduced to solve the resulting non-standard posynomial model which can be applied to a wide variety of models in non-standard posynomial geometric programming form. At the end a numerical analysis will be presented to accredit the validity of the mentioned model.

Keywords: Geometric programming, marketing, nonlinear optimization, production.

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8280 A Model of Sustainability in the Accommodation Sector

Authors: L. S. Zavodna, J. Zavodny Pospisil

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to identify the factors for sustainability in the accommodation sector. Although sustainability is a current trend in tourism, not many facilities know how to apply the concept in practice. This paper presents a model for the implementation of sustainability in hotels, hostels, campgrounds, or other facilities. First, there are identified sections of each accommodation facility, which can contribute to sustainability. Furthermore, concrete steps are presented to transfer this model into reality.

Keywords: Accommodation sector, model, sustainable tourism, sustainability.

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8279 On Algebraic Structure of Improved Gauss-Seidel Iteration

Authors: O. M. Bamigbola, A. A. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Analysis of real life problems often results in linear systems of equations for which solutions are sought. The method to employ depends, to some extent, on the properties of the coefficient matrix. It is not always feasible to solve linear systems of equations by direct methods, as such the need to use an iterative method becomes imperative. Before an iterative method can be employed to solve a linear system of equations there must be a guaranty that the process of solution will converge. This guaranty, which must be determined apriori, involve the use of some criterion expressible in terms of the entries of the coefficient matrix. It is, therefore, logical that the convergence criterion should depend implicitly on the algebraic structure of such a method. However, in deference to this view is the practice of conducting convergence analysis for Gauss- Seidel iteration on a criterion formulated based on the algebraic structure of Jacobi iteration. To remedy this anomaly, the Gauss- Seidel iteration was studied for its algebraic structure and contrary to the usual assumption, it was discovered that some property of the iteration matrix of Gauss-Seidel method is only diagonally dominant in its first row while the other rows do not satisfy diagonal dominance. With the aid of this structure we herein fashion out an improved version of Gauss-Seidel iteration with the prospect of enhancing convergence and robustness of the method. A numerical section is included to demonstrate the validity of the theoretical results obtained for the improved Gauss-Seidel method.

Keywords: Linear system of equations, Gauss-Seidel iteration, algebraic structure, convergence.

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8278 Receive and Transmit Array Antenna Spacingand Their Effect on the Performance of SIMO and MIMO Systems by using an RCS Channel Model

Authors: N. Ebrahimi-Tofighi, M. ArdebiliPour, M. Shahabadi

Abstract:

In this paper, the effect of receive and/or transmit antenna spacing on the performance (BER vs. SNR) of multipleantenna systems is determined by using an RCS (Radar Cross Section) channel model. In this physical model, the scatterers existing in the propagation environment are modeled by their RCS so that the correlation of the receive signal complex amplitudes, i.e., both magnitude and phase, can be estimated. The proposed RCS channel model is then compared with classical models.

Keywords: MIMO system, Performance of system, Signalcorrelation, SIMO system, Wireless channel model.

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8277 Region Based Hidden Markov Random Field Model for Brain MR Image Segmentation

Authors: Terrence Chen, Thomas S. Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the region based hidden Markov random field model (RBHMRF), which encodes the characteristics of different brain regions into a probabilistic framework for brain MR image segmentation. The recently proposed TV+L1 model is used for region extraction. By utilizing different spatial characteristics in different brain regions, the RMHMRF model performs beyond the current state-of-the-art method, the hidden Markov random field model (HMRF), which uses identical spatial information throughout the whole brain. Experiments on both real and synthetic 3D MR images show that the segmentation result of the proposed method has higher accuracy compared to existing algorithms.

Keywords: Finite Gaussian mixture model, Hidden Markov random field model, image segmentation, MRI.

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8276 Density Estimation using Generalized Linear Model and a Linear Combination of Gaussians

Authors: Aly Farag, Ayman El-Baz, Refaat Mohamed

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for density estimation. The proposed approach is based on using the logistic regression model to get initial density estimation for the given empirical density. The empirical data does not exactly follow the logistic regression model, so, there will be a deviation between the empirical density and the density estimated using logistic regression model. This deviation may be positive and/or negative. In this paper we use a linear combination of Gaussian (LCG) with positive and negative components as a model for this deviation. Also, we will use the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of LCG. Experiments on real images demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.

Keywords: Logistic regression model, Expectationmaximization, Segmentation.

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8275 Improving Decision Support for Organ Transplant

Authors: I. McCulloh, A. Placona, D. Stewart, D. Gause, K. Kiernan, M. Stuart, C. Zinner, L. Cartwright

Abstract:

We find in our data that an alarming number of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. We observe as many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient-specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision-makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.

Keywords: Decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant.

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