Search results for: retardation time

Authors: Mashitah Mohd Hussain, Salleh Serwan, Zuhaina Hj Zakaria

Abstract:

This paper presents a method to estimate load profile in a multiple power flow solutions for every minutes in 24 hours per day. A method to calculate multiple solutions of non linear profile is introduced. The Power System Simulation/Engineering (PSS®E) and python has been used to solve the load power flow. The result of this power flow solutions has been used to estimate the load profiles for each load at buses using Independent Component Analysis (ICA) without any knowledge of parameter and network topology of the systems. The proposed algorithm is tested with IEEE 69 test bus system represents for distribution part and the method of ICA has been programmed in MATLAB R2012b version. Simulation results and errors of estimations are discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Electrical Distribution System, Power Flow Solution, Distribution Network, Independent Component Analysis, Newton Raphson, Power System Simulation for Engineering.

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Authors: Maha Idrissi Aouad, Rene Schott, Olivier Zendra

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Reducing energy consumption of embedded systems requires careful memory management. It has been shown that Scratch- Pad Memories (SPMs) are low size, low cost, efficient (i.e. energy saving) data structures directly managed at the software level. In this paper, the focus is on heuristic methods for SPMs management. A method is efficient if the number of accesses to SPM is as large as possible and if all available space (i.e. bits) is used. A Tabu Search (TS) approach for memory management is proposed which is, to the best of our knowledge, a new original alternative to the best known existing heuristic (BEH). In fact, experimentations performed on benchmarks show that the Tabu Search method is as efficient as BEH (in terms of energy consumption) but BEH requires a sorting which can be computationally expensive for a large amount of data. TS is easy to implement and since no sorting is necessary, unlike BEH, the corresponding sorting time is saved. In addition to that, in a dynamic perspective where the maximum capacity of the SPM is not known in advance, the TS heuristic will perform better than BEH.

Keywords: Energy consumption, memory allocation management, optimization, tabu search heuristic.

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Authors: Omid A. Zargar

Abstract:

Vibration analysis is the most important factor in preventive maintenance. Gas turbine vibration analysis is also one of the most challenging categories in most critical equipment monitoring systems. Utilities are heart of the process in big industrial plants like petrochemical zones. Vibration analysis methods and condition monitoring systems of this kind of equipment developed too much in recent years. On the other hand, too much operation condition consideration in this kind of equipment should be adjusted properly like inlet and outlet pressure and temperature for both turbine and compressor. In this paper the most important tools and hypothesis used for analyzing of gas turbine power plants discussed in details through a real case history related to an Alstom Typhoon gas turbine power plant in Iran oil industries. In addition, the basic principal of vibration behavior caused by mechanical unbalance in gas turbine rotor discussed in details.

Keywords: Vibration analysis, gas turbine, time wave form (TWF), fast Fourier transform (FFT), phase angle.

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Authors: N. M. Nawi, R. S. Ransing, M. R. Ransing

Abstract:

The conjugate gradient optimization algorithm is combined with the modified back propagation algorithm to yield a computationally efficient algorithm for training multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks (CGFR/AG). The computational efficiency is enhanced by adaptively modifying initial search direction as described in the following steps: (1) Modification on standard back propagation algorithm by introducing a gain variation term in the activation function, (2) Calculation of the gradient descent of error with respect to the weights and gains values and (3) the determination of a new search direction by using information calculated in step (2). The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing accuracy and computation time with the conjugate gradient algorithm used in MATLAB neural network toolbox. The results show that the computational efficiency of the proposed method was better than the standard conjugate gradient algorithm.

Keywords: Adaptive gain variation, back-propagation, activation function, conjugate gradient, search direction.

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Authors: Özlem Pelin Can

Abstract:

This study evaluated the microbiological quality and the sensory characteristics of carp fillets processed by the sousvide method when stored at 2 and 10 °C. Four different combinations of sauced–storage were studied then stored at 2 or 10 °C was evaluate periodically sensory, microbiological and chemical quality. Batches stored at 2 °C had lower growth rates of mesophiles and psychrotrophs. Moreover, these counts decreased by increasing the heating temperature and time. Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens and Listeria monocytogenes were not found in any of the samples. The heat treatment of 90 °C for 15 min and sauced was the most effective to ensure the safety and extend the shelf-life of sousvide carp preserving its sensory characteristics. This study establishes the microbiological quality of sous vide carp and emphasizes the relevance of the raw materials, heat treatment and storage temperature to ensure the safety of the product.

Keywords: Sous- vide methods, carp, sauce, microbiological, chemical and sensory quality

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Authors: M. E. Marwan, A. R. Madar, N. Fuad

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Mobile communication provides access to the outside world without borders everywhere and at any time. The learning method that related to mobile communication technology is known as mobile learning (M-learning). It is a method that communicates learning materials with mobile device technology. The purpose of this method is to increase the interest in learning among students and assist them in obtaining learning materials at Kolej Poly-Tech MARA (KPTM) in order to improve the student’s performance in their study and to encourage educators to diversify the teaching practices. This paper discusses the student’s awareness for enhancement of learning style using mobile technologies and their readiness to apply the elements of mobile learning in learning to improve performance and interest in learning among students. An application called Mobile EEF Learning System (MEEFLS) has been developed as a tool to be used as a pilot test in KPTM.

Keywords: Awareness, MEEFLS, mobile learning, readiness.

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Authors: F. Simba, L. Trojer, N.H. Mvungi, B.M. Mwinyiwiwa, E.M. Mjema

Abstract:

Rural areas of Tanzania are still disadvantaged in terms of diffusion of IP-based services; this is due to lack of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructures, especially lack of connectivity. One of the limitations for connectivity problems in rural areas of Tanzania is the high cost to establish infrastructures for IP-based services [1-2]. However the cost of connectivity varies from one technology to the other and at the same time, the cost is also different from one operator (service provider) to another within the country. This paper presents development of software system to calculate cost of connectivity to rural areas of Tanzania. The system is developed to make an easy access of connectivity cost from different technologies and different operators. The development of the calculator follows the V-model software development lifecycle. The calculator is used to evaluate the economic viability of different technologies considered as being potential candidates to provide rural connectivity. In this paper, the evaluation is based on the techno-economic analysis approach.

Keywords: rural, connectivity, cost, V-model, techno economic analysis.

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Authors: Ghulam Mueen-ud-Din, Salim-ur-Rehman, Faqir M. Anjum, Haq Nawaz, Mian A. Murtaza

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The effect of wheat flour extraction rates on flour composition, farinographic characteristics and the quality of sourdough naans was investigated. The results indicated that by increasing the extraction rate, the amount of protein, fiber, fat and ash increased, whereas moisture content decreased. Farinographic characteristic like water absorption and dough development time increased with an increase in flour extraction rate but the dough stabilities and tolerance indices were reduced with an increase in flour extraction rates. Titratable acidity for both sourdough and sourdough naans also increased along with flour extraction rate. The study showed that overall quality of sourdough naans were affected by both flour extraction rate and starter culture used. Sensory analysis of sourdough naans revealed that desirable extraction rate for sourdough naan was 76%.

Keywords: Extraction rates, Farinographic characteristics, Flour composition, Sourdough naans, Wheat flour.

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Authors: Yousry El-Gamal, Khalid El-Gazzar, Magdy Saeb

Abstract:

The development of distributed systems has been affected by the need to accommodate an increasing degree of flexibility, adaptability, and autonomy. The Mobile Agent technology is emerging as an alternative to build a smart generation of highly distributed systems. In this work, we investigate the performance aspect of agent-based technologies for information retrieval. We present a comparative performance evaluation model of Mobile Agents versus Remote Method Invocation by means of an analytical approach. We demonstrate the effectiveness of mobile agents for dynamic code deployment and remote data processing by reducing total latency and at the same time producing minimum network traffic. We argue that exploiting agent-based technologies significantly enhances the performance of distributed systems in the domain of information retrieval.

Keywords: Mobile Agent, performance evaluation, RMI, information retrieval, distributed systems, database.

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Authors: Zaki Ahmad Khan, Jamshed Siddiqui, Abdus Samad

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The Scheduling and mapping of tasks on a set of processors is considered as a critical problem in parallel and distributed computing system. This paper deals with the problem of dynamic scheduling on a special type of multiprocessor architecture known as Linear Crossed Cube (LCQ) network. This proposed multiprocessor is a hybrid network which combines the features of both linear types of architectures as well as cube based architectures. Two standard dynamic scheduling schemes namely Minimum Distance Scheduling (MDS) and Two Round Scheduling (TRS) schemes are implemented on the LCQ network. Parallel tasks are mapped and the imbalance of load is evaluated on different set of processors in LCQ network. The simulations results are evaluated and effort is made by means of through analysis of the results to obtain the best solution for the given network in term of load imbalance left and execution time. The other performance matrices like speedup and efficiency are also evaluated with the given dynamic algorithms.

Keywords: Dynamic algorithm, Load imbalance, Mapping, Task scheduling.

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Authors: Abobaker M. Q. Farhan, Olof M. A. Saif

Abstract:

The demand for parking spaces in urban areas, particularly in developing countries, has led to a significant issue in the absence of sufficient parking spaces in crowded areas, which results in daily traffic congestion as drivers search for parking. This not only affects the appearance of the city but also has indirect impacts on the economy, society, and environment. In response to these challenges, researchers from various countries have sought technical and intelligent solutions to mitigate the problem through the development of smart parking systems. This paper aims to analyze and design three models of parking lots, with a focus on parking time and security. The study used computer software and Uppaal tools to simulate the models and determine the best among them. The results and suggestions provided in the paper aim to reduce the parking problems and improve the overall efficiency and safety of the parking process. The conclusion of the study highlights the importance of utilizing advanced technology to address the pressing issue of insufficient parking spaces in urban areas.

Keywords: Preliminaries, system requirements, timed automata, uppaal.

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Authors: S. Suren, U. Pancharoen

Abstract:

A double module hollow fiber supported liquid membrane (HFSLM) was applied to selectively separate lead and mercury ions from dilute synthetic produced water. The experiments were investigated on several variables: types of extractants (D2EHPA, Cyanex 471, Aliquat 336, and TOA), concentration of the selected extractant and operating time. The results clearly showed that the double module HFSLM could selectively separate Pb(II) and Hg(II) in feed solution at a very low concentration to less than the regulatory discharge limit of 0.2 and 0.005 mg/L issued by the Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Natural Resource Environment, Thailand. The highest extractions of lead and mercury ions from synthetic produced water were 96% and 100% using 0.03 M D2EHPA and 0.06 M Aliquat 336 as the extractant for the first and second modules.

Keywords: Hollow fiber, Lead ions, Liquid membrane, Mercury ions, Selective separation

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Authors: Leehter Yao, Chin-Chin Lin

Abstract:

An adaptive fuzzy PID controller with gain scheduling is proposed in this paper. The structure of the proposed gain scheduled fuzzy PID (GS_FPID) controller consists of both fuzzy PI-like controller and fuzzy PD-like controller. Both of fuzzy PI-like and PD-like controllers are weighted through adaptive gain scheduling, which are also determined by fuzzy logic inference. A modified genetic algorithm called accumulated genetic algorithm is designed to learn the parameters of fuzzy inference system. In order to learn the number of fuzzy rules required for the TSK model, the fuzzy rules are learned in an accumulated way. In other words, the parameters learned in the previous rules are accumulated and updated along with the parameters in the current rule. It will be shown that the proposed GS_FPID controllers learned by the accumulated GA perform well for not only the regular linear systems but also the higher order and time-delayed systems.

Keywords: Gain scheduling, fuzzy PID controller, adaptive control, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Being effective in every organizational activity has become necessary due to the escalating level of competition in all areas of corporate life. In the context of supply chain management, aircraft supplier selection is currently one of the most crucial activities. It is possible to choose the best aircraft supplier and deliver efficiency in terms of cost, quality, delivery time, economic status, and institutionalization if a systematic supplier selection approach is used. In this study, an effective multiple criteria decision-making methodology, proximity measure method (PMM), is used within a fuzzy environment based on the vague structure of the real working environment. The best appropriate aircraft suppliers are identified and ranked after the proposed multiple criteria decision making technique is used in a real-life scenario.

Keywords: Aircraft supplier selection, multiple criteria decision making, fuzzy sets, proximity measure method, Minkowski distance family function, Hausdorff distance function, PMM, MCDM

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Authors: Mubarak Saif Mohsen, Zurinahni Zainol, Rosalina Abdul Salam, Wahidah Husain

Abstract:

One of the major problems in genomic field is to perform sequence comparison on DNA and protein sequences. Executing sequence comparison on the DNA and protein data is a computationally intensive task. Sequence comparison is the basic step for all algorithms in protein sequences similarity. Parallel computing is an attractive solution to provide the computational power needed to speedup the lengthy process of the sequence comparison. Our main research is to enhance the protein sequence algorithm using dynamic programming method. In our approach, we parallelize the dynamic programming algorithm using multithreaded program to perform the sequence comparison and also developed a distributed protein database among many PCs using Remote Method Interface (RMI). As a result, we showed how different sizes of protein sequences data and computation of scoring matrix of these protein sequence on different number of processors affected the processing time and speed, as oppose to sequential processing.

Keywords: Protein sequence algorithm, dynamic programming algorithm, multithread

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Authors: A. Safari, H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar

Abstract:

On the basis of the linearized Phillips-Herffron model of a single-machine power system, a novel method for designing unified power flow controller (UPFC) based output feedback controller is presented. The design problem of output feedback controller for UPFC is formulated as an optimization problem according to with the time domain-based objective function which is solved by iteration particle swarm optimization (IPSO) that has a strong ability to find the most optimistic results. To ensure the robustness of the proposed damping controller, the design process takes into account a wide range of operating conditions and system configurations. The simulation results prove the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method in terms of a high performance power system. The simulation study shows that the designed controller by Iteration PSO performs better than Classical PSO in finding the solution.

Keywords: UPFC, IPSO, output feedback Controller.

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Authors: Daniela I. Borissova, Ivan C. Mustakerov

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The paper addresses a problem of optimal staffing in open shop environment. The problem is to determine the optimal number of operators serving a given number of machines to fulfill the number of independent operations while minimizing staff idle. Using a Gantt chart presentation of the problem it is modeled as twodimensional cutting stock problem. A mixed-integer programming model is used to get minimal job processing time (makespan) for fixed number of machines' operators. An algorithm for optimal openshop staffing is developed based on iterative solving of the formulated optimization task. The execution of the developed algorithm provides optimal number of machines' operators in the sense of minimum staff idle and optimal makespan for that number of operators. The proposed algorithm is tested numerically for a real life staffing problem. The testing results show the practical applicability for similar open shop staffing problems.

Keywords: Integer programming, open shop problem, optimal staffing.

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Authors: K. Kannan, V. Venkataraman

Abstract:

Free convection effects and heat transfer due to a pulsating point heat source embedded in an infinite, fluid saturated, porous dusty medium are studied analytically. Both velocity and temperature fields are discussed in the form of series expansions in the Rayleigh number, for both the fluid and particle phases based on the mean heat generation rate from source and on the permeability of the porous dusty medium. This study is carried out by assuming the Rayleigh number small and the validity of Darcy-s law. Analytical expressions for both phases are obtained for second order mean in both velocity and temperature fields and evolution of different wave patterns are observed in the fluctuating part. It has been observed that, at the vicinity of the origin, the second order mean flow is influenced only by relaxation time of dust particles and not by dust concentration.

Keywords: Pulsating point heat source, azimuthal velocity, porous dusty medium, Darcy's law.

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Authors: Mohamed I. Mahmoud, Moawad I. M. Dessouky, Salah Deyab, Fatma H. Elfouly

Abstract:

Recently, the Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) technology offers the potential of designing high performance systems at low cost. The discrete wavelet transform has gained the reputation of being a very effective signal analysis tool for many practical applications. However, due to its computation-intensive nature, current implementation of the transform falls short of meeting real-time processing requirements of most application. The objectives of this paper are implement the Haar and Daubechies wavelets using FPGA technology. In addition, the comparison between the Haar and Daubechies wavelets is investigated. The Bit Error Rat (BER) between the input audio signal and the reconstructed output signal for each wavelet is calculated. It is seen that the BER using Daubechies wavelet techniques is less than Haar wavelet. The design procedure has been explained and designed using the stat-of-art Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools for system design on FPGA. Simulation, synthesis and implementation on the FPGA target technology has been carried out.

Keywords: Daubechies wavelet, discrete wavelet transform, Haar wavelet, Xilinx FPGA.

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Authors: M. Padmavathi, R. M. Suresh

Abstract:

Every machine plays roles of client and server simultaneously in a peer-to-peer (P2P) network. Though a P2P network has many advantages over traditional client-server models regarding efficiency and fault-tolerance, it also faces additional security threats. Users/IT administrators should be aware of risks from malicious code propagation, downloaded content legality, and P2P software’s vulnerabilities. Security and preventative measures are a must to protect networks from potential sensitive information leakage and security breaches. Bit Torrent is a popular and scalable P2P file distribution mechanism which successfully distributes large files quickly and efficiently without problems for origin server. Bit Torrent achieved excellent upload utilization according to measurement studies, but it also raised many questions as regards utilization in settings, than those measuring, fairness, and Bit Torrent’s mechanisms choice. This work proposed a block selection technique using Fuzzy ACO with optimal rules selected using ACO.

Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Bit Torrent, Download time, Peer-to-Peer (P2P) network, Performance.

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Authors: Je Young Lee, Hee Sung Kim, Kwang Ho Choi, Joonhoo Lim, Sebum Chun, Hyung Keun Lee

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This study is purposed to develop an efficient fault detection method for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) applications based on adaptive noise covariance estimation. Due to the dependence on radio frequency signals, GNSS measurements are dominated by systematic errors in receiver’s operating environment. In the proposed method, the pseudorange and carrier-phase measurement noise covariances are obtained at time propagations and measurement updates in process of Carrier-Smoothed Code (CSC) filtering, respectively. The test statistics for fault detection are generated by the estimated measurement noise covariances. To evaluate the fault detection capability, intentional faults were added to the filed-collected measurements. The experiment result shows that the proposed method is efficient in detecting unhealthy measurements and improves GNSS positioning accuracy against fault occurrences.

Keywords: Adaptive estimation, fault detection, GNSS, residual.

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Authors: Alpha Agape Gopalai, Darwin Gouwanda, S.M.N. Arosha Senanayake

Abstract:

This paper explores the opportunity of using tri-axial wireless accelerometers for supervised monitoring of sports movements. A motion analysis system for the upper extremities of lawn bowlers in particular is developed. Accelerometers are placed on parts of human body such as the chest to represent the shoulder movements, the back to capture the trunk motion, back of the hand, the wrist and one above the elbow, to capture arm movements. These sensors placement are carefully designed in order to avoid restricting bowler-s movements. Data is acquired from these sensors in soft-real time using virtual instrumentation; the acquired data is then conditioned and converted into required parameters for motion regeneration. A user interface was also created to facilitate in the acquisition of data, and broadcasting of commands to the wireless accelerometers. All motion regeneration in this paper deals with the motion of the human body segment in the X and Y direction, looking into the motion of the anterior/ posterior and lateral directions respectively.

Keywords: Motion Regeneration, Virtual Instrumentation, Wireless Accelerometers

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Authors: Vasana M. Don, Eldad J. Avital, Fariborz Motallebi

Abstract:

Supersonic open and closed cavity flows are investigated experimentally and computationally. Free stream Mach number of two is set. Schlieren imaging is used to visualise the flow behaviour showing stark differences between open and closed. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to simulate open cavity of flow with aspect ratio of 4. A rear wall treatment is implemented in order to pursue a simple passive control approach. Good qualitative agreement is achieved between the experimental flow visualisation and the CFD in terms of the expansion-shock waves system. The cavity oscillations are shown to be dominated by the first and third Rossister modes combining to high fluctuations of non-linear nature above the cavity rear edge. A simple rear wall treatment in terms of a hole shows mixed effect on the flow oscillations, RMS contours, and time history density fluctuations are given and analysed.

Keywords: Supersonic, Schlieren, open-cavity, flow simulation, passive control.

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Authors: Wan Norhasniah Wan Husin, Mohd Ridhuan Tee Abdullah

Abstract:

Towards the end of 19th century, the discovery of tin and the growing importance of rubber, had led Malaya to once again become the centre of attraction to western colonization, which later on caused the region to be influxed by cheap labour from China and India. One of the factors which attracted the alien communities was the characteristics of social relation offered by the Malays. If one analyzes the history of social relation of the Malays either among themselves or their relation with alien communities, it is apparent that the community places high regards to values such as tolerant, cooperative, respectful and helpful with each other. In fact, all these values are deeply rooted in the value of 'budi'. With the arrival of Islam, the value of 'budi' had been well assimilated with Islamic values thus giving birth to the value of 'budi-Islam'. Through 'budi- Islam', the Malay conducted their dealings with British as well the other communities during the time of peace or conflict. This value is well nurtured due to the geographical circumstances like the fertile, naturally rich land and bountiful marine life. Besides, a set of Malay customs known as 'adat' custom contributed in enhancing the values of budi.

Keywords: Adat System, budi and Islam, Chinese community, Malay community

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Authors: Zainab Almukhtar, Adel Merabet

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In this paper, a method for maximum power point tracking of a photovoltaic energy conversion system is presented. This method is based on using the difference between the power from the solar panel and an estimated power value to control the DC-DC converter of the photovoltaic system. The difference is continuously compared with a preset error permitted value. If the power difference is more than the error, the estimated power is multiplied by a factor and the operation is repeated until the difference is less or equal to the threshold error. The difference in power will be used to trigger a DC-DC boost converter in order to raise the voltage to where the maximum power point is achieved. The proposed method was experimentally verified through a PV energy conversion system driven by the OPAL-RT real time controller. The method was tested on varying radiation conditions and load requirements, and the Photovoltaic Panel was operated at its maximum power in different conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: Control system, power error, solar panel, MPPT.

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Authors: Benmalek M. Larbi, R. Harbi, S. Boukor

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This paper reports an experimental work that aimed to investigate the effects of clay brick waste, as part of fine aggregate, on rendering mortar performance. The brick, in crushed form, was from a local brick manufacturer that was rejected due to being of-standard. It was used to replace 33.33 %, 50 %, 66.66 % and 100 % by weight of the quarry sand in mortar. Effects of the brick replacement on the mortar key properties intended for wall plastering were investigated; these are workability, compressive strength, flexural strength, linear shrinkage, water absorption by total immersion and by capillary suction. The results showed that as the brick replacement level increased, the mortar workability reduced. The linear shrinkage increases over time and decreases with the introduction of brick waste. The compressive and flexural strengths decrease with the increase of brick waste because of their great water absorption.

Keywords: Clay brick waste, mortar, properties, quarry sand.

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Authors: Chee Siong Teh, Chee Peng Lim

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel architecture for developing decision support systems. Unlike conventional decision support systems, the proposed architecture endeavors to reveal the decision-making process such that humans' subjectivity can be incorporated into a computerized system and, at the same time, to preserve the capability of the computerized system in processing information objectively. A number of techniques used in developing the decision support system are elaborated to make the decisionmarking process transparent. These include procedures for high dimensional data visualization, pattern classification, prediction, and evolutionary computational search. An artificial data set is first employed to compare the proposed approach with other methods. A simulated handwritten data set and a real data set on liver disease diagnosis are then employed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The results are analyzed and discussed. The potentials of the proposed architecture as a useful decision support system are demonstrated.

Keywords: Interactive evolutionary computation, multivariate data projection, pattern classification, topographic map.

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Authors: Azam Beg, P. W. Chandana Prasad, S.M.N.A Senenayake

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When binary decision diagrams are formed from uniformly distributed Monte Carlo data for a large number of variables, the complexity of the decision diagrams exhibits a predictable relationship to the number of variables and minterms. In the present work, a neural network model has been used to analyze the pattern of shortest path length for larger number of Monte Carlo data points. The neural model shows a strong descriptive power for the ISCAS benchmark data with an RMS error of 0.102 for the shortest path length complexity. Therefore, the model can be considered as a method of predicting path length complexities; this is expected to lead to minimum time complexity of very large-scale integrated circuitries and related computer-aided design tools that use binary decision diagrams.

Keywords: Monte Carlo circuit simulation data, binary decision diagrams, neural network modeling, shortest path length estimation

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Authors: Petar Halachev

Abstract:

Forecasting the values of the indicators, which characterize the effectiveness of performance of organizations is of great importance for their successful development. Such forecasting is necessary in order to assess the current state and to foresee future developments, so that measures to improve the organization-s activity could be undertaken in time. The article presents an overview of the applied mathematical and statistical methods for developing forecasts. Special attention is paid to artificial neural networks as a forecasting tool. Their strengths and weaknesses are analyzed and a synopsis is made of the application of artificial neural networks in the field of forecasting of the values of different education efficiency indicators. A method of evaluation of the activity of universities using the Balanced Scorecard is proposed and Key Performance Indicators for assessment of e-learning are selected. Resulting indicators for the evaluation of efficiency of the activity are proposed. An artificial neural network is constructed and applied in the forecasting of the values of indicators for e-learning efficiency on the basis of the KPI values.

Keywords: artificial neural network, balanced scorecard, e-learning

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Authors: Chia-Feng Lu, Yuh-Jen Wang, Yu-Te Wu, Sui-Hing Yan

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This study aimed at investigating whether the functional brain networks constructed using the initial EEG (obtained when patients first visited hospital) can be correlated with the progression of cognitive decline calculated as the changes of mini-mental state examination (MMSE) scores between the latest and initial examinations. We integrated the time–frequency cross mutual information (TFCMI) method to estimate the EEG functional connectivity between cortical regions, and the network analysis based on graph theory to investigate the organization of functional networks in aMCI. Our finding suggested that higher integrated functional network with sufficient connection strengths, dense connection between local regions, and high network efficiency in processing information at the initial stage may result in a better prognosis of the subsequent cognitive functions for aMCI. In conclusion, the functional connectivity can be a useful biomarker to assist in prediction of cognitive declines in aMCI.

Keywords: Cognitive decline, functional connectivity, MCI, MMSE.

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