Search results for: prediction model
7474 Unsupervised Text Mining Approach to Early Warning System
Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner
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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.
Keywords: Early Warning System, Knowledge Management, Topic Modeling, Market Prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19087473 Land Suitability Prediction Modelling for Agricultural Crops Using Machine Learning Approach: A Case Study of Khuzestan Province, Iran
Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari
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The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. This necessitates increased resource consumption and underscores the importance of addressing sustainable agriculture development along with other environmental considerations. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for 10 different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.
Keywords: Land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2527472 Prediction of California Bearing Ratio from Physical Properties of Fine-Grained Soils
Authors: Bao Thach Nguyen, Abbas Mohajerani
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The California Bearing Ratio (CBR) has been acknowledged as an important parameter to characterize the bearing capacity of earth structures, such as earth dams, road embankments, airport runways, bridge abutments and pavements. Technically, the CBR test can be carried out in the laboratory or in the field. The CBR test is time-consuming and is infrequently performed due to the equipment needed and the fact that the field moisture content keeps changing over time. Over the years, many correlations have been developed for the prediction of CBR by various researchers, including the dynamic cone penetrometer, undrained shear strength and Clegg impact hammer. This paper reports and discusses some of the results from a study on the prediction of CBR. In the current study, the CBR test was performed in the laboratory on some finegrained subgrade soils collected from various locations in Victoria. Based on the test results, a satisfactory empirical correlation was found between the CBR and the physical properties of the experimental soils.
Keywords: California bearing ratio, fine-grained soils, pavement, soil physical properties.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 66037471 An Investigative Study into Observer based Non-Invasive Fault Detection and Diagnosis in Induction Motors
Authors: Padmakumar S., Vivek Agarwal, Kallol Roy
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A new observer based fault detection and diagnosis scheme for predicting induction motors- faults is proposed in this paper. Prediction of incipient faults, using different variants of Kalman filter and their relative performance are evaluated. Only soft faults are considered for this work. The data generation, filter convergence issues, hypothesis testing and residue estimates are addressed. Simulink model is used for data generation and various types of faults are considered. A comparative assessment of the estimates of different observers associated with these faults is included.Keywords: Extended Kalman Filter, Fault detection and diagnosis, Induction motor model, Unscented Kalman Filter
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18697470 Multi-Label Hierarchical Classification for Protein Function Prediction
Authors: Helyane B. Borges, Julio Cesar Nievola
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Hierarchical classification is a problem with applications in many areas as protein function prediction where the dates are hierarchically structured. Therefore, it is necessary the development of algorithms able to induce hierarchical classification models. This paper presents experimenters using the algorithm for hierarchical classification called Multi-label Hierarchical Classification using a Competitive Neural Network (MHC-CNN). It was tested in ten datasets the Gene Ontology (GO) Cellular Component Domain. The results are compared with the Clus-HMC and Clus-HSC using the hF-Measure.
Keywords: Hierarchical Classification, Competitive Neural Network, Global Classifier.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23727469 Dynamic Process Monitoring of an Ammonia Synthesis Fixed-Bed Reactor
Authors: Bothinah Altaf, Gary Montague, Elaine B. Martin
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This study involves the modeling and monitoring of an ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor using partial least squares (PLS) and its variants. The process exhibits complex dynamic behavior due to the presence of heat recycling and feed quench. One limitation of static PLS model in this situation is that it does not take account of the process dynamics and hence dynamic PLS was used. Although it showed, superior performance to static PLS in terms of prediction, the monitoring scheme was inappropriate hence adaptive PLS was considered. A limitation of adaptive PLS is that non-conforming observations also contribute to the model, therefore, a new adaptive approach was developed, robust adaptive dynamic PLS. This approach updates a dynamic PLS model and is robust to non-representative data. The developed methodology showed a clear improvement over existing approaches in terms of the modeling of the reactor and the detection of faults.Keywords: Ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor, dynamic partial least squares modeling, recursive partial least squares, robust modeling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19117468 Prediction of Coast Down Time for Mechanical Faults in Rotating Machinery Using Artificial Neural Networks
Authors: G. R. Rameshkumar, B. V. A Rao, K. P. Ramachandran
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Misalignment and unbalance are the major concerns in rotating machinery. When the power supply to any rotating system is cutoff, the system begins to lose the momentum gained during sustained operation and finally comes to rest. The exact time period from when the power is cutoff until the rotor comes to rest is called Coast Down Time. The CDTs for different shaft cutoff speeds were recorded at various misalignment and unbalance conditions. The CDT reduction percentages were calculated for each fault and there is a specific correlation between the CDT reduction percentage and the severity of the fault. In this paper, radial basis network, a new generation of artificial neural networks, has been successfully incorporated for the prediction of CDT for misalignment and unbalance conditions. Radial basis network has been found to be successful in the prediction of CDT for mechanical faults in rotating machinery.Keywords: Coast Down Time, Misalignment, Unbalance, Artificial Neural Networks, Radial Basis Network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29787467 A Comparison of the Nonparametric Regression Models using Smoothing Spline and Kernel Regression
Authors: Dursun Aydin
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This paper study about using of nonparametric models for Gross National Product data in Turkey and Stanford heart transplant data. It is discussed two nonparametric techniques called smoothing spline and kernel regression. The main goal is to compare the techniques used for prediction of the nonparametric regression models. According to the results of numerical studies, it is concluded that smoothing spline regression estimators are better than those of the kernel regression.Keywords: Kernel regression, Nonparametric models, Prediction, Smoothing spline.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 30887466 Predictive Models for Compressive Strength of High Performance Fly Ash Cement Concrete for Pavements
Authors: S. M. Gupta, Vanita Aggarwal, Som Nath Sachdeva
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The work reported through this paper is an experimental work conducted on High Performance Concrete (HPC) with super plasticizer with the aim to develop some models suitable for prediction of compressive strength of HPC mixes. In this study, the effect of varying proportions of fly ash (0% to 50% @ 10% increment) on compressive strength of high performance concrete has been evaluated. The mix designs studied were M30, M40 and M50 to compare the effect of fly ash addition on the properties of these concrete mixes. In all eighteen concrete mixes that have been designed, three were conventional concretes for three grades under discussion and fifteen were HPC with fly ash with varying percentages of fly ash. The concrete mix designing has been done in accordance with Indian standard recommended guidelines. All the concrete mixes have been studied in terms of compressive strength at 7 days, 28 days, 90 days, and 365 days. All the materials used have been kept same throughout the study to get a perfect comparison of values of results. The models for compressive strength prediction have been developed using Linear Regression method (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Leave-One-Out Validation (LOOV) methods.
Keywords: ANN, concrete mixes, compressive strength, fly ash, high performance concrete, linear regression, strength prediction models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20687465 Using Stresses Obtained from a Low Detailed FE Model and Located at a Reference Point to Quickly Calculate the Free-edge Stress Intensity Factors of Bonded Joints
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The present study focuses on methods allowing a convenient and quick calculation of the SIFs in order to predict the static adhesive strength of bonded joints. A new SIF calculation method is proposed, based on the stresses obtained from a FE model at a reference point located in the adhesive layer at equal distance of the free-edge and of the two interfaces. It is shown that, even limiting ourselves to the two main modes, i.e. the opening and the shearing modes, and using the values of the stresses resulting from a low detailed FE model, an efficient calculation of the peeling stress at adhesive-substrate corners can be obtained by this way. The proposed method is interesting in that it can be the basis of a prediction tool that will allow the designer to quickly evaluate the SIFs characterizing a particular application without developing a detailed analysis.
Keywords: Adhesive layer, bounded joints, free-edge corner, stress intensity factor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11327464 Influence Analysis of Macroeconomic Parameters on Real Estate Price Variation in Taipei, Taiwan
Authors: Li Li, Kai-Hsuan Chu
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It is well known that the real estate price depends on a lot of factors. Each house current value is dependent on the location, room number, transportation, living convenience, year and surrounding environments. Although, there are different experienced models for housing agent to estimate the price, it is a case by case study without overall dynamic variation investigation. However, many economic parameters may more or less influence the real estate price variation. Here, the influences of most macroeconomic parameters on real estate price are investigated individually based on least-square scheme and grey correlation strategy. Then those parameters are classified into leading indices, simultaneous indices and laggard indices. In addition, the leading time period is evaluated based on least square method. The important leading and simultaneous indices can be used to establish an artificial intelligent neural network model for real estate price variation prediction. The real estate price variation of Taipei, Taiwan during 2005 ~ 2017 are chosen for this research data analysis and validation. The results show that the proposed method has reasonable prediction function for real estate business reference.Keywords: Real estate price, least-square, grey correlation, macroeconomics.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9727463 Predicting the Minimum Free Energy RNA Secondary Structures using Harmony Search Algorithm
Authors: Abdulqader M. Mohsen, Ahamad Tajudin Khader, Dhanesh Ramachandram, Abdullatif Ghallab
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The physical methods for RNA secondary structure prediction are time consuming and expensive, thus methods for computational prediction will be a proper alternative. Various algorithms have been used for RNA structure prediction including dynamic programming and metaheuristic algorithms. Musician's behaviorinspired harmony search is a recently developed metaheuristic algorithm which has been successful in a wide variety of complex optimization problems. This paper proposes a harmony search algorithm (HSRNAFold) to find RNA secondary structure with minimum free energy and similar to the native structure. HSRNAFold is compared with dynamic programming benchmark mfold and metaheuristic algorithms (RnaPredict, SetPSO and HelixPSO). The results showed that HSRNAFold is comparable to mfold and better than metaheuristics in finding the minimum free energies and the number of correct base pairs.
Keywords: Metaheuristic algorithms, dynamic programming algorithms, harmony search optimization, RNA folding, Minimum free energy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23247462 Computational Model for Predicting Effective siRNA Sequences Using Whole Stacking Energy (% G) for Gene Silencing
Authors: Reena Murali, David Peter S.
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The small interfering RNA (siRNA) alters the regulatory role of mRNA during gene expression by translational inhibition. Recent studies show that upregulation of mRNA because serious diseases like cancer. So designing effective siRNA with good knockdown effects plays an important role in gene silencing. Various siRNA design tools had been developed earlier. In this work, we are trying to analyze the existing good scoring second generation siRNA predicting tools and to optimize the efficiency of siRNA prediction by designing a computational model using Artificial Neural Network and whole stacking energy (%G), which may help in gene silencing and drug design in cancer therapy. Our model is trained and tested against a large data set of siRNA sequences. Validation of our results is done by finding correlation coefficient of experimental versus observed inhibition efficacy of siRNA. We achieved a correlation coefficient of 0.727 in our previous computational model and we could improve the correlation coefficient up to 0.753 when the threshold of whole tacking energy is greater than or equal to -32.5 kcal/mol.
Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Double Stranded RNA, RNA Interference, Short Interfering RNA.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26537461 Modelling the Occurrence of Defects and Change Requests during User Acceptance Testing
Authors: Kevin McDaid, Simon P. Wilson
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Software developed for a specific customer under contract typically undergoes a period of testing by the customer before acceptance. This is known as user acceptance testing and the process can reveal both defects in the system and requests for changes to the product. This paper uses nonhomogeneous Poisson processes to model a real user acceptance data set from a recently developed system. In particular a split Poisson process is shown to provide an excellent fit to the data. The paper explains how this model can be used to aid the allocation of resources through the accurate prediction of occurrences both during the acceptance testing phase and before this activity begins. Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23267460 A Survey of Model Comparison Strategies and Techniques in Model Driven Engineering
Authors: Junaid Rashid, Waqar Mehmood, Muhammad Wasif Nisar
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This survey paper shows the recent state of model comparison as it’s applies to Model Driven engineering. In Model Driven Engineering to calculate the difference between the models is a very important and challenging task. There are number of tasks involved in model differencing that firstly starts with identifying and matching the elements of the model. In this paper, we discuss how model matching is accomplished, the strategies, techniques and the types of the model. We also discuss the future direction. We found out that many of the latest model comparison strategies are geared near enabling Meta model and similarity based matching. Therefore model versioning is the most dominant application of the model comparison. Recently to work on comparison for versioning has begun to deteriorate, giving way to different applications. Ultimately there is wide change among the tools in the measure of client exertion needed to perform model comparisons, as some require more push to encourage more sweeping statement and expressive force.Keywords: Model comparison, model clone detection, model versioning, EMF Model, model diff.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21657459 The Traffic Prediction Multi-path Energy-aware Source Routing (TP-MESR)in Ad hoc Networks
Authors: Su Jin Kim, Ji Yeon Cho, Bong Gyou Lee
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The purpose of this study is to suggest energy efficient routing for ad hoc networks which are composed of nodes with limited energy. There are diverse problems including limitation of energy supply of node, and the node energy management problem has been presented. And a number of protocols have been proposed for energy conservation and energy efficiency. In this study, the critical point of the EA-MPDSR, that is the type of energy efficient routing using only two paths, is improved and developed. The proposed TP-MESR uses multi-path routing technique and traffic prediction function to increase number of path more than 2. It also verifies its efficiency compared to EA-MPDSR using network simulator (NS-2). Also, To give a academic value and explain protocol systematically, research guidelines which the Hevner(2004) suggests are applied. This proposed TP-MESR solved the existing multi-path routing problem related to overhead, radio interference, packet reassembly and it confirmed its contribution to effective use of energy in ad hoc networks.Keywords: Ad hoc, energy-aware, multi-path, routing protocol, traffic prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15477458 Probabilistic Approach of Dealing with Uncertainties in Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems and Situation Awareness for Multi-agent Systems
Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber
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In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.
Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9937457 FT-NIR Method to Determine Moisture in Gluten Free Rice Based Pasta during Drying
Authors: Navneet Singh Deora, Aastha Deswal, H. N. Mishra
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Pasta is one of the most widely consumed food products around the world. Rapid determination of the moisture content in pasta will assist food processors to provide online quality control of pasta during large scale production. Rapid Fourier transform near-infrared method (FT-NIR) was developed for determining moisture content in pasta. A calibration set of 150 samples, a validation set of 30 samples and a prediction set of 25 samples of pasta were used. The diffuse reflection spectra of different types of pastas were measured by FT-NIR analyzer in the 4,000-12,000cm-1 spectral range. Calibration and validation sets were designed for the conception and evaluation of the method adequacy in the range of moisture content 10 to 15 percent (w.b) of the pasta. The prediction models based on partial least squares (PLS) regression, were developed in the near-infrared. Conventional criteria such as the R2, the root mean square errors of cross validation (RMSECV), root mean square errors of estimation (RMSEE) as well as the number of PLS factors were considered for the selection of three pre-processing (vector normalization, minimum-maximum normalization and multiplicative scatter correction) methods. Spectra of pasta sample were treated with different mathematic pre-treatments before being used to build models between the spectral information and moisture content. The moisture content in pasta predicted by FT-NIR methods had very good correlation with their values determined via traditional methods (R2 = 0.983), which clearly indicated that FT-NIR methods could be used as an effective tool for rapid determination of moisture content in pasta. The best calibration model was developed with min-max normalization (MMN) spectral pre-processing (R2 = 0.9775). The MMN pre-processing method was found most suitable and the maximum coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.9875 was obtained for the calibration model developed.
Keywords: FT-NIR, Pasta, moisture determination.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 28117456 CFD Simulations of a Co-current Spray Dryer
Authors: Saad Nahi Saleh
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This paper presents the prediction of air flow, humidity and temperature patterns in a co-current pilot plant spray dryer fitted with a pressure nozzle using a three dimensional model. The modelling was done with a Computational Fluid Dynamic package (Fluent 6.3), in which the gas phase is modelled as continuum using the Euler approach and the droplet/ particle phase is modelled by the Discrete Phase model (Lagrange approach).Good agreement was obtained with published experimental data where the CFD simulation correctly predicts a fast downward central flowing core and slow recirculation zones near the walls. In this work, the effects of the air flow pattern on droplets trajectories, residence time distribution of droplets and deposition of the droplets on the wall also were investigated where atomizing of maltodextrin solution was used.Keywords: Spray, CFD, multiphase, drying, droplet, particle.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 39947455 Author Profiling: Prediction of Learners’ Gender on a MOOC Platform Based on Learners’ Comments
Authors: Tahani Aljohani, Jialin Yu, Alexandra. I. Cristea
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The more an educational system knows about a learner, the more personalised interaction it can provide, which leads to better learning. However, asking a learner directly is potentially disruptive, and often ignored by learners. Especially in the booming realm of MOOC Massive Online Learning platforms, only a very low percentage of users disclose demographic information about themselves. Thus, in this paper, we aim to predict learners’ demographic characteristics, by proposing an approach using linguistically motivated Deep Learning Architectures for Learner Profiling, particularly targeting gender prediction on a FutureLearn MOOC platform. Additionally, we tackle here the difficult problem of predicting the gender of learners based on their comments only – which are often available across MOOCs. The most common current approaches to text classification use the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, considering sentences as sequences. However, human language also has structures. In this research, rather than considering sentences as plain sequences, we hypothesise that higher semantic - and syntactic level sentence processing based on linguistics will render a richer representation. We thus evaluate, the traditional LSTM versus other bleeding edge models, which take into account syntactic structure, such as tree-structured LSTM, Stack-augmented Parser-Interpreter Neural Network (SPINN) and the Structure-Aware Tag Augmented model (SATA). Additionally, we explore using different word-level encoding functions. We have implemented these methods on Our MOOC dataset, which is the most performant one comparing with a public dataset on sentiment analysis that is further used as a cross-examining for the models' results.
Keywords: Deep learning, data mining, gender predication, MOOCs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13487454 Development of Predictive Model for Surface Roughness in End Milling of Al-SiCp Metal Matrix Composites using Fuzzy Logic
Authors: M. Chandrasekaran, D. Devarasiddappa
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Metal matrix composites have been increasingly used as materials for components in automotive and aerospace industries because of their improved properties compared with non-reinforced alloys. During machining the selection of appropriate machining parameters to produce job for desired surface roughness is of great concern considering the economy of manufacturing process. In this study, a surface roughness prediction model using fuzzy logic is developed for end milling of Al-SiCp metal matrix composite component using carbide end mill cutter. The surface roughness is modeled as a function of spindle speed (N), feed rate (f), depth of cut (d) and the SiCp percentage (S). The predicted values surface roughness is compared with experimental result. The model predicts average percentage error as 4.56% and mean square error as 0.0729. It is observed that surface roughness is most influenced by feed rate, spindle speed and SiC percentage. Depth of cut has least influence.Keywords: End milling, fuzzy logic, metal matrix composites, surface roughness
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21637453 Using Simulation Modeling Approach to Predict USMLE Steps 1 and 2 Performances
Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels
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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14557452 On Adaptive Optimization of Filter Performance Based on Markov Representation for Output Prediction Error
Authors: Hong Son Hoang, Remy Baraille
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This paper addresses the problem of how one can improve the performance of a non-optimal filter. First the theoretical question on dynamical representation for a given time correlated random process is studied. It will be demonstrated that for a wide class of random processes, having a canonical form, there exists a dynamical system equivalent in the sense that its output has the same covariance function. It is shown that the dynamical approach is more effective for simulating and estimating a Markov and non- Markovian random processes, computationally is less demanding, especially with increasing of the dimension of simulated processes. Numerical examples and estimation problems in low dimensional systems are given to illustrate the advantages of the approach. A very useful application of the proposed approach is shown for the problem of state estimation in very high dimensional systems. Here a modified filter for data assimilation in an oceanic numerical model is presented which is proved to be very efficient due to introducing a simple Markovian structure for the output prediction error process and adaptive tuning some parameters of the Markov equation.Keywords: Statistical simulation, canonical form, dynamical system, Markov and non-Markovian processes, data assimilation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12897451 Input Data Balancing in a Neural Network PM-10 Forecasting System
Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon
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Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.
Keywords: AI, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8227450 Identification of Nonlinear Predictor and Simulator Models of a Cement Rotary Kiln by Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy Technique
Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi
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One of the most important parts of a cement factory is the cement rotary kiln which plays a key role in quality and quantity of produced cement. In this part, the physical exertion and bilateral movement of air and materials, together with chemical reactions take place. Thus, this system has immensely complex and nonlinear dynamic equations. These equations have not worked out yet. Only in exceptional case; however, a large number of the involved parameter were crossed out and an approximation model was presented instead. This issue caused many problems for designing a cement rotary kiln controller. In this paper, we presented nonlinear predictor and simulator models for a real cement rotary kiln by using nonlinear identification technique on the Locally Linear Neuro- Fuzzy (LLNF) model. For the first time, a simulator model as well as a predictor one with a precise fifteen minute prediction horizon for a cement rotary kiln is presented. These models are trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental tree-structure algorithm. At the end, the characteristics of these models are expressed. Furthermore, we presented the pros and cons of these models. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for modeling.Keywords: Cement rotary kiln, nonlinear identification, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20127449 Post-Cracking Behaviour of High Strength Fiber Concrete Prediction and Validation
Authors: Andrejs Krasnikovs, Olga Kononova, Amjad Khabbaz, Edgar Machanovsky, Artur Machanovsky
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Fracture process in mechanically loaded steel fiber reinforced high-strength (SFRHSC) concrete is characterized by fibers bridging the crack providing resistance to its opening. Structural SFRHSC fracture model was created; material fracture process was modeled, based on single fiber pull-out laws, which were determined experimentally (for straight fibers, fibers with end hooks (Dramix), and corrugated fibers (Tabix)) as well as obtained numerically ( using FEM simulations). For this purpose experimental program was realized and pull-out force versus pull-out fiber length was obtained (for fibers embedded into concrete at different depth and under different angle). Model predictions were validated by 15x15x60cm prisms 4 point bending tests. Fracture surfaces analysis was realized for broken prisms with the goal to improve elaborated model assumptions. Optimal SFRHSC structures were recognized.Keywords: crack, fiber concrete, fiber pull-out, strength.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20827448 A Network Traffic Prediction Algorithm Based On Data Mining Technique
Authors: D. Prangchumpol
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This paper is a description approach to predict incoming and outgoing data rate in network system by using association rule discover, which is one of the data mining techniques. Information of incoming and outgoing data in each times and network bandwidth are network performance parameters, which needed to solve in the traffic problem. Since congestion and data loss are important network problems. The result of this technique can predicted future network traffic. In addition, this research is useful for network routing selection and network performance improvement.
Keywords: Traffic prediction, association rule, data mining.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 36527447 Application of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Maintainability Using Object-Oriented Metrics
Authors: K. K. Aggarwal, Yogesh Singh, Arvinder Kaur, Ruchika Malhotra
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Importance of software quality is increasing leading to development of new sophisticated techniques, which can be used in constructing models for predicting quality attributes. One such technique is Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This paper examined the application of ANN for software quality prediction using Object- Oriented (OO) metrics. Quality estimation includes estimating maintainability of software. The dependent variable in our study was maintenance effort. The independent variables were principal components of eight OO metrics. The results showed that the Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) was 0.265 of ANN model. Thus we found that ANN method was useful in constructing software quality model.
Keywords: Software quality, Measurement, Metrics, Artificial neural network, Coupling, Cohesion, Inheritance, Principal component analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25657446 Improve Safety Performance of Un-Signalized Intersections in Oman
Authors: Siham G. Farag
Abstract:
The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T-intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.
Keywords: Accidents Prediction Models (APMs), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20457445 Correlation of Viscosity in Nanofluids using Genetic Algorithm-neural Network (GA-NN)
Authors: Hajir Karimi, Fakheri Yousefi, Mahmood Reza Rahimi
Abstract:
An accurate and proficient artificial neural network (ANN) based genetic algorithm (GA) is developed for predicting of nanofluids viscosity. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to optimize the neural network parameters for minimizing the error between the predictive viscosity and the experimental one. The experimental viscosity in two nanofluids Al2O3-H2O and CuO-H2O from 278.15 to 343.15 K and volume fraction up to 15% were used from literature. The result of this study reveals that GA-NN model is outperform to the conventional neural nets in predicting the viscosity of nanofluids with mean absolute relative error of 1.22% and 1.77% for Al2O3-H2O and CuO-H2O, respectively. Furthermore, the results of this work have also been compared with others models. The findings of this work demonstrate that the GA-NN model is an effective method for prediction viscosity of nanofluids and have better accuracy and simplicity compared with the others models.Keywords: genetic algorithm, nanofluids, neural network, viscosity
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2072