Search results for: change point estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4212

Search results for: change point estimation

3822 Building Information Modeling-Based Approach for Automatic Quantity Take-off and Cost Estimation

Authors: Lo Kar Yin, Law Ka Mei

Abstract:

Architectural, engineering, construction and operations (AECO) industry practitioners have been well adapting to the dynamic construction market from the fundamental training of its disciplines. As further triggered by the pandemic since 2019, great steps are taken in virtual environment and the best collaboration is strived with project teams without boundaries. With adoption of Building Information Modeling-based approach and qualitative analysis, this paper is to review quantity take-off (QTO) and cost estimation process through modeling techniques in liaison with suppliers, fabricators, subcontractors, contractors, designers, consultants and services providers in the construction industry value chain for automatic project cost budgeting, project cost control and cost evaluation on design options of in-situ reinforced-concrete construction and Modular Integrated Construction (MiC) at design stage, variation of works and cash flow/spending analysis at construction stage as far as practicable, with a view to sharing the findings for enhancing mutual trust and co-operation among AECO industry practitioners. It is to foster development through a common prototype of design and build project delivery method in NEC4 Engineering and Construction Contract (ECC) Options A and C.

Keywords: Building Information Modeling, cost estimation, quantity take-off, modeling techniques.

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3821 Choosing Search Algorithms in Bayesian Optimization Algorithm

Authors: Hao Wu, Jonathan L. Shapiro

Abstract:

The Bayesian Optimization Algorithm (BOA) is an algorithm based on the estimation of distributions. It uses techniques from modeling data by Bayesian networks to estimating the joint distribution of promising solutions. To obtain the structure of Bayesian network, different search algorithms can be used. The key point that BOA addresses is whether the constructed Bayesian network could generate new and useful solutions (strings), which could lead the algorithm in the right direction to solve the problem. Undoubtedly, this ability is a crucial factor of the efficiency of BOA. Varied search algorithms can be used in BOA, but their performances are different. For choosing better ones, certain suitable method to present their ability difference is needed. In this paper, a greedy search algorithm and a stochastic search algorithm are used in BOA to solve certain optimization problem. A method using Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence to reflect their difference is described.

Keywords: Bayesian optimization algorithm, greedy search, KL divergence, stochastic search.

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3820 Long Term Examination of the Profitability Estimation Focused on Benefits

Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

Abstract:

Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis.

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3819 A Self Configuring System for Object Recognition in Color Images

Authors: Michela Lecca

Abstract:

System MEMORI automatically detects and recognizes rotated and/or rescaled versions of the objects of a database within digital color images with cluttered background. This task is accomplished by means of a region grouping algorithm guided by heuristic rules, whose parameters concern some geometrical properties and the recognition score of the database objects. This paper focuses on the strategies implemented in MEMORI for the estimation of the heuristic rule parameters. This estimation, being automatic, makes the system a highly user-friendly tool.

Keywords: Automatic object recognition, clustering, content based image retrieval system, image segmentation, region adjacency graph, region grouping.

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3818 FEM Models of Glued Laminated Timber Beams Enhanced by Bayesian Updating of Elastic Moduli

Authors: L. Melzerová, T. Janda, M. Šejnoha, J. Šejnoha

Abstract:

Two finite element (FEM) models are presented in this paper to address the random nature of the response of glued timber structures made of wood segments with variable elastic moduli evaluated from 3600 indentation measurements. This total database served to create the same number of ensembles as was the number of segments in the tested beam. Statistics of these ensembles were then assigned to given segments of beams and the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was called to perform 100 simulations resulting into the ensemble of 100 deflections subjected to statistical evaluation. Here, a detailed geometrical arrangement of individual segments in the laminated beam was considered in the construction of two-dimensional FEM model subjected to in fourpoint bending to comply with the laboratory tests. Since laboratory measurements of local elastic moduli may in general suffer from a significant experimental error, it appears advantageous to exploit the full scale measurements of timber beams, i.e. deflections, to improve their prior distributions with the help of the Bayesian statistical method. This, however, requires an efficient computational model when simulating the laboratory tests numerically. To this end, a simplified model based on Mindlin’s beam theory was established. The improved posterior distributions show that the most significant change of the Young’s modulus distribution takes place in laminae in the most strained zones, i.e. in the top and bottom layers within the beam center region. Posterior distributions of moduli of elasticity were subsequently utilized in the 2D FEM model and compared with the original simulations.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, FEM, four point bending test, laminated timber, parameter estimation, prior and posterior distribution, Young’s modulus.

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3817 Distributed Frequency Synchronization for Global Synchronization in Wireless Mesh Networks

Authors: Jung-Hyun Kim, Jihyung Kim, Kwangjae Lim, Dong Seung Kwon

Abstract:

In this paper, our focus is to assure a global frequency synchronization in OFDMA-based wireless mesh networks with local information. To acquire the global synchronization in distributed manner, we propose a novel distributed frequency synchronization (DFS) method. DFS is a method that carrier frequencies of distributed nodes converge to a common value by repetitive estimation and averaging step and sharing step. Experimental results show that DFS achieves noteworthy better synchronization success probability than existing schemes in OFDMA-based mesh networks where the estimation error is presented.

Keywords: OFDMA systems, Frequency synchronization, Distributed networks, Multiple groups.

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3816 Constructive Proof of Tychonoff’s Fixed Point Theorem for Sequentially Locally Non-Constant Functions

Authors: Yasuhito Tanaka

Abstract:

We present a constructive proof of Tychonoff’s fixed point theorem in a locally convex space for uniformly continuous and sequentially locally non-constant functions.

Keywords: sequentially locally non-constant functions, Tychonoff’s fixed point theorem, constructive mathematics.

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3815 Assessing Land Cover Change Trajectories in Olomouc, Czech Republic

Authors: Mukesh Singh Boori, Vít Voženílek

Abstract:

Olomouc is a unique and complex landmark with widespread forestation and land use. This research work was conducted to assess important and complex land use change trajectories in Olomouc region. Multi-temporal satellite data from 1991, 2001 and 2013 were used to extract land use/cover types by object oriented classification method. To achieve the objectives, three different aspects were used: (1) Calculate the quantity of each transition; (2) Allocate location based landscape pattern (3) Compare land use/cover evaluation procedure. Land cover change trajectories shows that 16.69% agriculture, 54.33% forest and 21.98% other areas (settlement, pasture and water-body) were stable in all three decade. Approximately 30% of the study area maintained as a same land cove type from 1991 to 2013. Here broad scale of political and socioeconomic factors was also affect the rate and direction of landscape changes. Distance from the settlements was the most important predictor of land cover change trajectories. This showed that most of landscape trajectories were caused by socio-economic activities and mainly led to virtuous change on the ecological environment.

Keywords: Remote Sensing, land use/cover, Change trajectories, Image classification.

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3814 Reliability of Digital FSO Links in Europe

Authors: Zdenek Kolka, Otakar Wilfert, Viera Biolkova

Abstract:

The paper deals with an analysis of visibility records collected from 210 European airports to obtain a realistic estimation of the availability of Free Space Optical (FSO) data links. Commercially available optical links usually operate in the 850nm waveband. Thus the influence of the atmosphere on the optical beam and on the visible light is similar. Long-term visibility records represent an invaluable source of data for the estimation of the quality of service of FSO links. The model used characterizes both the statistical properties of fade depths and the statistical properties of individual fade durations. Results are presented for Italy, France, and Germany.

Keywords: Computer networks, free-space optical links, meteorology, quality of service.

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3813 Color Constancy using Superpixel

Authors: Xingsheng Yuan, Zhengzhi Wang

Abstract:

Color constancy algorithms are generally based on the simplified assumption about the spectral distribution or the reflection attributes of the scene surface. However, in reality, these assumptions are too restrictive. The methodology is proposed to extend existing algorithm to applying color constancy locally to image patches rather than globally to the entire images. In this paper, a method based on low-level image features using superpixels is proposed. Superpixel segmentation partition an image into regions that are approximately uniform in size and shape. Instead of using entire pixel set for estimating the illuminant, only superpixels with the most valuable information are used. Based on large scale experiments on real-world scenes, it can be derived that the estimation is more accurate using superpixels than when using the entire image.

Keywords: color constancy, illuminant estimation, superpixel

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3812 Estimating Development Time of Software Projects Using a Neuro Fuzzy Approach

Authors: Venus Marza, Amin Seyyedi, Luiz Fernando Capretz

Abstract:

Software estimation accuracy is among the greatest challenges for software developers. This study aimed at building and evaluating a neuro-fuzzy model to estimate software projects development time. The forty-one modules developed from ten programs were used as dataset. Our proposed approach is compared with fuzzy logic and neural network model and Results show that the value of MMRE (Mean of Magnitude of Relative Error) applying neuro-fuzzy was substantially lower than MMRE applying fuzzy logic and neural network.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy Logic, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Estimation

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3811 Climate Change and Food Security: The Legal Aspects with Special Focus on the European Union

Authors: M. Adamczak-Retecka, O. Hołub-Śniadach

Abstract:

Dangerous of climate change is now global problem and as such has a strategic priority also for the European Union. Europe and European citizens try to do their best to cut greenhouse gas emissions, moreover they substantially encourage other nations and regions to follow the same way. The European Commission and a number of Member States have developed adaptation strategies in order to help strengthen EU's resilience to the inevitable impacts of climate change. The EU has long been a driving force in international negotiations on climate change and was instrumental in the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. As the world's leading donor of development aid, the EU also provides substantial funding to help developing countries tackle climate change problem. Global warming influences human health, biodiversity, ecosystems but also many social and economic sectors. The aim of this paper is to focus on impact of claimant change on for food security. Food security challenges are directly related to globalization, climate change. It means that current and future food policy is exposed to all cross-cutting and that must be linked with environmental and climate targets, which supposed to be achieved. In the 7th EAP —The new general Union Environment Action Program to 2020, called “Living well, within the limits of our planet” EU has agreed to step up its efforts to protect natural capital, stimulate resource efficient, low carbon growth and innovation, and safeguard people’s health and wellbeing– while respecting the Earth’s natural limits.

Keywords: Climate change, EU law, food policy, food security.

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3810 Tuning Cubic Equations of State for Supercritical Water Applications

Authors: Shyh-Ming Chern

Abstract:

Cubic equations of state (EoS), popular due to their simple mathematical form, ease of use, semi-theoretical nature and reasonable accuracy, are normally fitted to vapor-liquid equilibrium P-v-T data. As a result, they often show poor accuracy in the region near and above the critical point. In this study, the performance of the renowned Peng-Robinson (PR) and Patel-Teja (PT) EoS’s around the critical area has been examined against the P-v-T data of water. Both of them display large deviations at critical point. For instance, PR-EoS exhibits discrepancies as high as 47% for the specific volume, 28% for the enthalpy departure and 43% for the entropy departure at critical point. It is shown that incorporating P-v-T data of the supercritical region into the retuning of a cubic EoS can improve its performance at and above the critical point dramatically. Adopting a retuned acentric factor of 0.5491 instead of its genuine value of 0.344 for water in PR-EoS and a new F of 0.8854 instead of its original value of 0.6898 for water in PT-EoS reduces the discrepancies to about one third or less.

Keywords: Equation of state, EoS, supercritical water, SCW.

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3809 Estimation of Train Operation Using an Exponential Smoothing Method

Authors: Taiyo Matsumura, Kuninori Takahashi, Takashi Ono

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to improve the convenience of waiting for trains at level crossings and stations and to prevent accidents resulting from forcible entry into level crossings, by providing level crossing users and passengers with information that tells them when the next train will pass through or arrive. For this paper, we proposed methods for estimating operation by means of an average value method, variable response smoothing method, and exponential smoothing method, on the basis of open data, which has low accuracy, but for which performance schedules are distributed in real time. We then examined the accuracy of the estimations. The results showed that the application of an exponential smoothing method is valid.

Keywords: Exponential smoothing method, open data, operation estimation, train schedule.

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3808 Robust Adaptive Observer Design for Lipschitz Class of Nonlinear Systems

Authors: M. Pourgholi, V.J.Majd

Abstract:

This paper addresses parameter and state estimation problem in the presence of the perturbation of observer gain bounded input disturbances for the Lipschitz systems that are linear in unknown parameters and nonlinear in states. A new nonlinear adaptive resilient observer is designed, and its stability conditions based on Lyapunov technique are derived. The gain for this observer is derived systematically using linear matrix inequality approach. A numerical example is provided in which the nonlinear terms depend on unmeasured states. The simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Adaptive observer, linear matrix inequality, nonlinear systems, nonlinear observer, resilient observer, robust estimation.

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3807 Zero Truncated Strict Arcsine Model

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

The zero truncated model is usually used in modeling count data without zero. It is the opposite of zero inflated model. Zero truncated Poisson and zero truncated negative binomial models are discussed and used by some researchers in analyzing the abundance of rare species and hospital stay. Zero truncated models are used as the base in developing hurdle models. In this study, we developed a new model, the zero truncated strict arcsine model, which can be used as an alternative model in modeling count data without zero and with extra variation. Two simulated and one real life data sets are used and fitted into this developed model. The results show that the model provides a good fit to the data. Maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters.

Keywords: Hurdle models, maximum likelihood estimation method, positive count data.

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3806 Fixed Point Theorems for Set Valued Mappings in Partially Ordered Metric Spaces

Authors: Ismat Beg, Asma Rashid Butt

Abstract:

Let (X,) be a partially ordered set and d be a metric on X such that (X, d) is a complete metric space. Assume that X satisfies; if a non-decreasing sequence xn → x in X, then xn  x, for all n. Let F be a set valued mapping from X into X with nonempty closed bounded values satisfying; (i) there exists κ ∈ (0, 1) with D(F(x), F(y)) ≤ κd(x, y), for all x  y, (ii) if d(x, y) < ε < 1 for some y ∈ F(x) then x  y, (iii) there exists x0 ∈ X, and some x1 ∈ F(x0) with x0  x1 such that d(x0, x1) < 1. It is shown that F has a fixed point. Several consequences are also obtained.

Keywords: Fixed point, partially ordered set, metric space, set valued mapping.

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3805 Realization of Soliton Phase Characteristics in 10 Gbps, Single Channel, Uncompensated Telecommunication System

Authors: A. Jawahar

Abstract:

In this paper, the dependence of soliton pulses with respect to phase in a 10Gbps, single channel, dispersion uncompensated telecommunication system was studied. The characteristic feature of periodic soliton interaction was noted at the Interaction point (I=6202.5Km) in one collision length of L=12405.1 Km. The interaction point is located for 10Gbps system with an initial relative spacing (qo) of soliton as 5.28 using Perturbation theory. It is shown that, when two in-phase solitons are launched, they interact at the point I=6202.5 Km, but the interaction could be restricted with introduction of different phase initially. When the phase of the input solitons increases, the deviation of soliton pulses at the ‘I’ also increases. We have successfully demonstrated this effect in a telecommunication set-up in terms of Quality factor (Q), where the Q=0 for in-phase soliton. The Q was noted to be 125.9, 38.63, 47.53, 59.60, 161.37, and 78.04 for different phases such as 10o, 20o, 30o, 45o, 60o and 90o degrees respectively at Interaction point (I).

Keywords: Soliton interaction, Initial relative spacing, phase, Perturbation theory and telecommunication system.

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3804 A Design of Elliptic Curve Cryptography Processor Based on SM2 over GF(p)

Authors: Shiji Hu, Lei Li, Wanting Zhou, Daohong Yang

Abstract:

The data encryption is the foundation of today’s communication. On this basis, to improve the speed of data encryption and decryption is always an important goal for high-speed applications. This paper proposed an elliptic curve crypto processor architecture based on SM2 prime field. Regarding hardware implementation, we optimized the algorithms in different stages of the structure. For modulo operation on finite field, we proposed an optimized improvement of the Karatsuba-Ofman multiplication algorithm and shortened the critical path through the pipeline structure in the algorithm implementation. Based on SM2 recommended prime field, a fast modular reduction algorithm is used to reduce 512-bit data obtained from the multiplication unit. The radix-4 extended Euclidean algorithm was used to realize the conversion between the affine coordinate system and the Jacobi projective coordinate system. In the parallel scheduling point operations on elliptic curves, we proposed a three-level parallel structure of point addition and point double based on the Jacobian projective coordinate system. Combined with the scalar multiplication algorithm, we added mutual pre-operation to the point addition and double point operation to improve the efficiency of the scalar point multiplication. The proposed ECC hardware architecture was verified and implemented on Xilinx Virtex-7 and ZYNQ-7 platforms, and each 256-bit scalar multiplication operation took 0.275ms. The performance for handling scalar multiplication is 32 times that of CPU (dual-core ARM Cortex-A9).

Keywords: Elliptic curve cryptosystems, SM2, modular multiplication, point multiplication.

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3803 Discrete Polyphase Matched Filtering-based Soft Timing Estimation for Mobile Wireless Systems

Authors: Thomas O. Olwal, Michael A. van Wyk, Barend J. van Wyk

Abstract:

In this paper we present a soft timing phase estimation (STPE) method for wireless mobile receivers operating in low signal to noise ratios (SNRs). Discrete Polyphase Matched (DPM) filters, a Log-maximum a posterior probability (MAP) and/or a Soft-output Viterbi algorithm (SOVA) are combined to derive a new timing recovery (TR) scheme. We apply this scheme to wireless cellular communication system model that comprises of a raised cosine filter (RCF), a bit-interleaved turbo-coded multi-level modulation (BITMM) scheme and the channel is assumed to be memory-less. Furthermore, no clock signals are transmitted to the receiver contrary to the classical data aided (DA) models. This new model ensures that both the bandwidth and power of the communication system is conserved. However, the computational complexity of ideal turbo synchronization is increased by 50%. Several simulation tests on bit error rate (BER) and block error rate (BLER) versus low SNR reveal that the proposed iterative soft timing recovery (ISTR) scheme outperforms the conventional schemes.

Keywords: discrete polyphase matched filters, maximum likelihood estimators, soft timing phase estimation, wireless mobile systems.

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3802 Physical Deterioration of Semi-Arid Soils as Affected by Land Use Change in North West of Iran

Authors: Ali Reza Vaezi, Fereshteh Haghshenas

Abstract:

Land use has generally been considered a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Extensive changes to forests and pastures are being driven by the need to provide food, fiber, and shelter for people in recent decades. Land use is an important factor affecting soil organic carbon accumulation and storage in soils which influence directly on other physicochemical soil properties, soil productivity and soil’s susceptibility to water erosion. The change of pastures to the agricultural lands has been increasing rapidly in most semi-arid regions in Iran. Information on the effect of the land use change in these areas on the deterioration of soil physicochemical properties is limited. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the physical deterioration of soil as affected by land use change in semi-arid pastures in north west of Iran. Toward this, seven areas covering both pasture and rainfed lands with different soil textures (clay loam, silty clay loam, sandy clay loam, silt loam, loam, sandy loam and sandy loam) were selected in a semi-arid region in Zanjan, NW Iran. Pasture in the area is covered with poor vegetation and mostly grazed in wet seasons (end of winter and early spring and autumn). Rainfed lands resulting land use change are mostly planted for winter wheat production. In each area, soil samples (0-30 cm depth) were collected from the two land uses (pasture and rainfed land) at three replications. A total of 42 soil samples were taken from the study area. Various soil physical properties consisting of bulk density, total porosity, coarse pores volume, aggregate size, aggregate stability, water-holding capacity and saturated hydraulic conductivity were determined in the soil samples using the laboratory conventional methods. The results showed that the change of pastures to rainfeds is severely deteriorated soil physical properties. However, the variation rate of the physical soil properties is different. The loss of soil physical properties as a result of the land use change was in the following order: 61% water-stable aggregates, 60% aggregate size > 41% macroporosity > 28% bulk density > 22% total porosity > 11% water holding capacity > 5% saturated point. This result reveals that the structural characteristics of soils in this area are the most important soil physical characteristics that are affected by land use change. The deterioration of these soil properties influences negatively the pore size distribution and volume percentage of macroporosity. Effects of land use change on deterioration of soil physical properties were different in various soil textures. The highest mean loss of soil physical properties was found in loam (42%), whereas the lowest value was in silty clay loam (23%). As a consequence, loam is the most vulnerable soil to physical degradation caused by land use change in the pastures. This physical loss of soil is associated with its higher percentage of larger aggregates as well as water-stable aggregates.

Keywords: Pasture, soil physical properties, soil structural characteristics, soil texture.

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3801 Application of an Analytical Model to Obtain Daily Flow Duration Curves for Different Hydrological Regimes in Switzerland

Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

Abstract:

This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: Analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges.

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3800 Object Recognition in Color Images by the Self Configuring System MEMORI

Authors: Michela Lecca

Abstract:

System MEMORI automatically detects and recognizes rotated and/or rescaled versions of the objects of a database within digital color images with cluttered background. This task is accomplished by means of a region grouping algorithm guided by heuristic rules, whose parameters concern some geometrical properties and the recognition score of the database objects. This paper focuses on the strategies implemented in MEMORI for the estimation of the heuristic rule parameters. This estimation, being automatic, makes the system a self configuring and highly user-friendly tool.

Keywords: Automatic Object Recognition, Clustering, Contentbased Image Retrieval System, Image Segmentation, Region Adjacency Graph, Region Grouping.

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3799 Assessment of Climate Policy and Sustainability in Hungary

Authors: M. Csete, G. Szendrö

Abstract:

The last Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, stating that the greatest risk in climate change affects sustainability is now widely known and accepted. However, it has not provoked substantial reaction and attention in Hungary, while international and national efforts have also not achieved expected results so far. Still, there are numerous examples on different levels (national, regional, local, household) making considerable progress in limiting their own emissions and making steps toward mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. The local level is exceptionally important in sustainability adaptation, as local communities are often able to adapt more flexibly to changes in the natural environment.The aim of this paper is to attempt a review of the national climate policy and the local climate change strategies in Hungary considering sustainable development.

Keywords: adaptation, climate policy, mitigation, localsustainability.

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3798 A Comparison of Marginal and Joint Generalized Quasi-likelihood Estimating Equations Based On the Com-Poisson GLM: Application to Car Breakdowns Data

Authors: N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

In this paper, we apply and compare two generalized estimating equation approaches to the analysis of car breakdowns data in Mauritius. Number of breakdowns experienced by a machinery is a highly under-dispersed count random variable and its value can be attributed to the factors related to the mechanical input and output of that machinery. Analyzing such under-dispersed count observation as a function of the explanatory factors has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we aim at estimating the effects of various factors on the number of breakdowns experienced by a passenger car based on a study performed in Mauritius over a year. We remark that the number of passenger car breakdowns is highly under-dispersed. These data are therefore modelled and analyzed using Com-Poisson regression model. We use the two types of quasi-likelihood estimation approaches to estimate the parameters of the model: marginal and joint generalized quasi-likelihood estimating equation approaches. Under-dispersion parameter is estimated to be around 2.14 justifying the appropriateness of Com-Poisson distribution in modelling underdispersed count responses recorded in this study.

Keywords: Breakdowns, under-dispersion, com-poisson, generalized linear model, marginal quasi-likelihood estimation, joint quasi-likelihood estimation.

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3797 A Real-Time Image Change Detection System

Authors: Madina Hamiane, Amina Khunji

Abstract:

Detecting changes in multiple images of the same scene has recently seen increased interest due to the many contemporary applications including smart security systems, smart homes, remote sensing, surveillance, medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, speed and distance measurement, post-disaster forensics and much more. These applications differ in the scale, nature, and speed of change. This paper presents an application of image processing techniques to implement a real-time change detection system. Change is identified by comparing the RGB representation of two consecutive frames captured in real-time. The detection threshold can be controlled to account for various luminance levels. The comparison result is passed through a filter before decision making to reduce false positives, especially at lower luminance conditions. The system is implemented with a MATLAB Graphical User interface with several controls to manage its operation and performance.

Keywords: Image change detection, Image processing, image filtering, thresholding, B/W quantization.

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3796 Electromagnetic Source Direction of Arrival Estimation via Virtual Antenna Array

Authors: Meiling Yang, Shuguo Xie, Yilong Zhu

Abstract:

Nowadays, due to diverse electric products and complex electromagnetic environment, the localization and troubleshooting of the electromagnetic radiation source is urgent and necessary especially on the condition of far field. However, based on the existing DOA positioning method, the system or devices are complex, bulky and expensive. To address this issue, this paper proposes a single antenna radiation source localization method. A single antenna moves to form a virtual antenna array combined with DOA and MUSIC algorithm to position accurately, meanwhile reducing the cost and simplify the equipment. As shown in the results of simulations and experiments, the virtual antenna array DOA estimation modeling is correct and its positioning is credible.

Keywords: Virtual antenna array, DOA, localization, far field.

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3795 Ratio Type Estimators of the Population Mean Based on Ranked Set Sampling

Authors: Said Ali Al-Hadhrami

Abstract:

Ranked set sampling (RSS) was first suggested to increase the efficiency of the population mean. It has been shown that this method is highly beneficial to the estimation based on simple random sampling (SRS). There has been considerable development and many modifications were done on this method. When a concomitant variable is available, ratio estimation based on ranked set sampling was proposed. This ratio estimator is more efficient than that based on SRS. In this paper some ratio type estimators of the population mean based on RSS are suggested. These estimators are found to be more efficient than the estimators of similar form using simple random sample.

Keywords: Bias, Efficiency, Ranked Set Sampling, Ratio Type Estimator

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3794 Determination of Chemical Oxygen Demand in Spent Caustic by Potentiometric Determination

Authors: Hamed Harrafi, Masoumeh Khedri, Karim Karaminejad

Abstract:

Measurement of the COD of a spent caustic solution involves firstly digestion of a test sample with dichromate solution and secondly measurement of dichromate remained by titration by ferrous ammonium sulfate [FAS] to an end point. In this paper we study by a potentiometric end point with Ag/AgCl reference electrode and gold rode electrode. The potentiometric end point is sharp and easily identified especially for the samples with high turbidity and color that other methods such as colorimetric in this type of sample do not result in high precision. Because interim of titration responds quickly to potential changes within the [Cr+6/Cr+3& Fe+2/Fe+3] solution producing stable readings that is lead to accurate COD measurement. Finally results are compared with data determined using colorimetric method for standard samples. It is shown that the potentiometric end point titration with gold rode electrode can be used with equal or better facility

Keywords: chemical oxygen demand, spent caustic and potentiometric determination

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3793 Lubricating Grease from Waste Cooking Oil and Waste Motor Sludge

Authors: Aseem Rajvanshi, Pankaj Kumar Pandey

Abstract:

Increase in population has increased the demand of energy to fulfill all its needs. This will result in burden on fossil fuels especially crude oil. Waste oil due to its disposal problem creates environmental degradation. In this context, this paper studies utilization of waste cooking oil and waste motor sludge for making lubricating grease. Experimental studies have been performed by variation in time and concentration of mixture of waste cooking oil and waste motor sludge. The samples were analyzed using penetration test (ASTM D-217), dropping point (ASTM D-566), work penetration (ASTM D-217) and copper strip test (ASTM D-408). Among 6 samples, sample 6 gives the best results with a good drop point and a fine penetration value. The dropping point and penetration test values were found to be 205 °C and 315, respectively. The penetration value falls under the category of NLGI (National Lubricating Grease Institute) consistency number 1.

Keywords: Crude oil, copper strip corrosion test, dropping point, penetration test.

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