Search results for: BP neural network model.

Authors: Rosmina Bustami, Charles Bong, Darrien Mah, Afnie Hamzah, Marina Patrick

Abstract:

The distressing flood scenarios that occur in recent years at the surrounding areas of Sarawak River have left damages of properties and indirectly caused disruptions of productive activities. This study is meant to reconstruct a 100-year flood event that took place in this river basin. Sarawak River Subbasin was chosen and modeled using the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling approach using InfoWorks River Simulation (RS), in combination with Geographical Information System (GIS). This produces the hydraulic response of the river and its floodplains in extreme flooding conditions. With different parameters introduced to the model, correlations of observed and simulated data are between 79% – 87%. Using the best calibrated model, flood mitigation structures are imposed along the sub-basin. Analysis is done based on the model simulation results. Result shows that the proposed retention ponds constructed along the sub-basin provide the most efficient reduction of flood by 34.18%.

Keywords: Flood, Flood mitigation structure, InfoWorks RS, Retention pond, Sarawak River sub-basin.

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Authors: Bothinah Altaf, Gary Montague, Elaine B. Martin

Abstract:

This study involves the modeling and monitoring of an ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor using partial least squares (PLS) and its variants. The process exhibits complex dynamic behavior due to the presence of heat recycling and feed quench. One limitation of static PLS model in this situation is that it does not take account of the process dynamics and hence dynamic PLS was used. Although it showed, superior performance to static PLS in terms of prediction, the monitoring scheme was inappropriate hence adaptive PLS was considered. A limitation of adaptive PLS is that non-conforming observations also contribute to the model, therefore, a new adaptive approach was developed, robust adaptive dynamic PLS. This approach updates a dynamic PLS model and is robust to non-representative data. The developed methodology showed a clear improvement over existing approaches in terms of the modeling of the reactor and the detection of faults.

Keywords: Ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor, dynamic partial least squares modeling, recursive partial least squares, robust modeling.

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Authors: K. E. Oyetade, S. D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

One of the fundamental characteristics of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been the ever-changing nature of continuous release and models of ICTs with its impact on the academic, social, and psychological benefits of its introduction in schools. However, there seems to be a growing concern about its negative impact on students when introduced early in schools for teaching and learning. This study aims to design a model of child development factors affecting the early introduction of ICTs in schools in an attempt to improve the understanding of child development and introduction of ICTs in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of child development theories and child development factors. The child development theoretical framework that fitted to the best of all child development factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study hence found that the Jean Piaget cognitive developmental theory is the most adequate theoretical frameworks for modeling child development factors for ICT introduction in schools.

Keywords: Child development factors, child development theories, ICTs, theory.

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Authors: J. S. Yadav, N. P. Patidar, J. Singhai, S. Panda, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper a mixed method by combining an evolutionary and a conventional technique is proposed for reduction of Single Input Single Output (SISO) continuous systems into Reduced Order Model (ROM). In the conventional technique, the mixed advantages of Mihailov stability criterion and continued Fraction Expansions (CFE) technique is employed where the reduced denominator polynomial is derived using Mihailov stability criterion and the numerator is obtained by matching the quotients of the Cauer second form of Continued fraction expansions. Then, retaining the numerator polynomial, the denominator polynomial is recalculated by an evolutionary technique. In the evolutionary method, the recently proposed Differential Evolution (DE) optimization technique is employed. DE method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. The proposed method is illustrated through a numerical example and compared with ROM where both numerator and denominator polynomials are obtained by conventional method to show its superiority.

Keywords: Reduced Order Modeling, Stability, Mihailov Stability Criterion, Continued Fraction Expansions, Differential Evolution, Integral Squared Error.

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Authors: Vikas Tewari, Shivendra Tewari, K. R. Pardasani

Abstract:

Calcium is a vital second messenger used in signal transduction. Calcium controls secretion, cell movement, muscular contraction, cell differentiation, ciliary beating and so on. Two theories have been used to simplify the system of reaction-diffusion equations of calcium into a single equation. One is excess buffer approximation (EBA) which assumes that mobile buffer is present in excess and cannot be saturated. The other is rapid buffer approximation (RBA), which assumes that calcium binding to buffer is rapid compared to calcium diffusion rate. In the present work, attempt has been made to develop a model for calcium diffusion under excess buffer approximation in neuron cells. This model incorporates the effect of [Na+] influx on [Ca2+] diffusion,variable calcium and sodium sources, sodium-calcium exchange protein, Sarcolemmal Calcium ATPase pump, sodium and calcium channels. The proposed mathematical model leads to a system of partial differential equations which have been solved numerically using Forward Time Centered Space (FTCS) approach. The numerical results have been used to study the relationships among different types of parameters such as buffer concentration, association rate, calcium permeability.

Keywords: Excess buffer approximation, Na+ influx, sodium calcium exchange protein, sarcolemmal calcium atpase pump, forward time centred space.

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Authors: Anuraj Singh, Sunita Gakkhar

Abstract:

The three-species food web model proposed and investigated by Gakkhar and Naji is known to have chaotic behaviour for a choice of parameters. An attempt has been made to synchronize the chaos in the model using bidirectional coupling. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the analytical results. Numerical results show that for higher value of coupling strength, chaotic synchronization is achieved. Chaos can be controlled to achieve stable synchronization in natural systems.

Keywords: Lyapunov Exponent, Bidirectional Coupling, ChaosSynchronization, Synchronization Manifold

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Authors: N.Boontian

Abstract:

A novel calibration approach that aims to reduce ASM2d parameter subsets and decrease the model complexity is presented. This approach does not require high computational demand and reduces the number of modeling parameters required to achieve the ASMs calibration by employing a sensitivity and iteration methodology. Parameter sensitivity is a crucial factor and the iteration methodology enables refinement of the simulation parameter values. When completing the iteration process, parameters values are determined in descending order of their sensitivities. The number of iterations required is equal to the number of model parameters of the parameter significance ranking. This approach was used for the ASM2d model to the evaluated EBPR phosphorus removal and it was successful. Results of the simulation provide calibration parameters. These included YPAO, YPO4, YPHA, qPHA, qPP, μPAO, bPAO, bPP, bPHA, KPS, YA, μAUT, bAUT, KO2 AUT, and KNH4 AUT. Those parameters were corresponding to the experimental data available.

Keywords: ASM2d, calibration approach, iteration methodology, sensitivity, phosphorus removal

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Authors: Patience Muchini, Electdom Matandiroya, Emmanuel Mashonjowa

Abstract:

A ground-end manifestation of space weather phenomena is known as geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). GICs flow along the electric power transmission cables connecting the transformers and between the grounding points of power transformers during significant geomagnetic storms. Zimbabwe has no study that notes if grid failures have been caused by GICs. Research and monitoring are needed to investigate this possible relationship purpose of this paper is to characterize GICs with a power grid network. This paper analyses data collected, which are geomagnetic data, which include the Kp index, Disturbance storm time (DST) index, and the G-Scale from geomagnetic storms and also analyses power grid data, which includes reactive power, relay tripping, and alarms from high voltage substations and then correlates the data. This research analysis was first theoretically analyzed by studying geomagnetic parameters and then experimented upon. To correlate, MATLAB was used as the basic software to analyze the data. Latitudes of the substations were also brought into scrutiny to note if they were an impact due to the location as low latitudes areas like most parts of Zimbabwe, there are less severe geomagnetic variations. Based on theoretical and graphical analysis, it has been proven that there is a slight relationship between power system failures and GICs. Further analyses can be done by implementing measuring instruments to measure any currents in the grounding of high-voltage transformers when geomagnetic storms occur. Mitigation measures can then be developed to minimize the susceptibility of the power network to GICs.

Keywords: Adverse space weather, DST index, geomagnetically induced currents, Kp index, reactive power.

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Authors: Tero Huhtala, Minna Pikkarainen, Saila Saraniemi

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Information technology has long been used as an enabler of exchange for goods and services. Services are evolving from generic to personalized, and the reverse use of customer data has been discussed in both academia and industry for the past few years. This article presents the results of an empirical case study in the area of preventive health care services. The primary data were gathered in workshops, in which future personal data-based services were conceptualized by analyzing future scenarios from a business perspective. The aim of this study is to understand business model transformation in emerging personal data ecosystems. The work was done as a case study in the context of occupational healthcare. The results have implications to theory and practice, indicating that adopting personal data management principles requires transformation of the business model, which, if successfully managed, may provide access to more resources, potential to offer better value, and additional customer channels. These advantages correlate with the broadening of the business ecosystem. Expanding the scope of this study to include more actors would improve the validity of the research. The results draw from existing literature and are based on findings from a case study and the economic properties of the healthcare industry in Finland.

Keywords: Ecosystem, business model, personal data, preventive healthcare.

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Authors: F. Maamar, M. Sartor

Abstract:

The present study focuses on methods allowing a convenient and quick calculation of the SIFs in order to predict the static adhesive strength of bonded joints. A new SIF calculation method is proposed, based on the stresses obtained from a FE model at a reference point located in the adhesive layer at equal distance of the free-edge and of the two interfaces. It is shown that, even limiting ourselves to the two main modes, i.e. the opening and the shearing modes, and using the values of the stresses resulting from a low detailed FE model, an efficient calculation of the peeling stress at adhesive-substrate corners can be obtained by this way. The proposed method is interesting in that it can be the basis of a prediction tool that will allow the designer to quickly evaluate the SIFs characterizing a particular application without developing a detailed analysis.

Keywords: Adhesive layer, bounded joints, free-edge corner, stress intensity factor.

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Authors: Ali Sarosh, Dong Yun-Feng, Muhammad Umer

Abstract:

Fully reusable spaceplanes do not exist as yet. This implies that design-qualification for optimized highly-integrated forebody-inlet configuration of booster-stage vehicle cannot be based on archival data of other spaceplanes. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel TIPSO-SVM expert system methodology. A non-trivial problem related to optimization and classification of hypersonic forebody-inlet configuration in conjunction with mass-model of the two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle is solved. The hybrid-heuristic machine learning methodology is based on two-step improved particle swarm optimizer (TIPSO) algorithm and two-step support vector machine (SVM) data classification method. The efficacy of method is tested by first evolving an optimal configuration for hypersonic compression system using TIPSO algorithm; thereafter, classifying the results using two-step SVM method. In the first step extensive but non-classified mass-model training data for multiple optimized configurations is segregated and pre-classified for learning of SVM algorithm. In second step the TIPSO optimized mass-model data is classified using the SVM classification. Results showed remarkable improvement in configuration and mass-model along with sizing parameters.

Keywords: TIPSO-SVM expert system, TIPSO algorithm, two-step SVM method, aerothermodynamics, mass-modeling, TSTO vehicle.

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Authors: Kathaleeya Chanda, Panupong Chanplin, Suppara Charoenpoom

Abstract:

This purposes of the development of creative instruction model through digital media are to: 1) enable learners to learn from instruction media application; 2) help learners implementing instruction media correctly and appropriately; and 3) facilitate learners to apply technology for searching information and practicing skills to implement technology creatively. The sample group consists of 130 cases of secondary students studying in Bo Kluea School, Bo Kluea Nuea Sub-district, Bo Kluea District, Nan Province. The probability sampling was selected through the simple random sampling and the statistics used in this research are percentage, mean, standard deviation and one group pretest – posttest design. The findings are summarized as follows: The congruence index of instruction media for occupation and technology subjects is appropriate. By comparing between learning achievements before implementing the instruction media and learning achievements after implementing the instruction media, it is found that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. For the learning achievements from instruction media implementation, pretest mean is 16.24 while posttest mean is 26.28. Besides, pretest and posttest results are compared and differences of mean are tested, the test results show that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. This can be interpreted that the learners achieve better learning progress.

Keywords: Teaching learning model, digital media, creative instruction model, facilitate learners.

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Authors: A. P. Joshi, H. V. Warrior, J. P. Panda

Abstract:

This paper is a continuation of the work carried out by various turbulence modelers in Oceanography on the topic of oceanic turbulent mixing. It evaluates the evolution of ocean water temperature and salinity by the appropriate modeling of turbulent mixing utilizing proper prescription of eddy viscosity. Many modelers in past have suggested including terms like shear, buoyancy and vorticity to be the parameters that decide the slow pressure strain correlation. We add to it the fact that dissipation anisotropy also modifies the correlation through eddy viscosity parameterization. This recalibrates the established correlation constants slightly and gives improved results. This anisotropization of dissipation implies that the critical Richardson’s number increases much beyond unity (to 1.66) to accommodate enhanced mixing, as is seen in reality. The model is run for a couple of test cases in the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and the results are presented here.

Keywords: Anisotropy, GOTM, pressure-strain correlation, Richardson Critical number.

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Authors: Win Win Tun, Han Su Yin, Ohn Zin Lin

Abstract:

Transmission networks are an important part of an electric power system. The transmission lines not only have high power transmission capacity but also they are prone of larger magnitudes. Different types of faults occur in transmission lines such as single line to ground (L-G) fault, double line to ground (L-L-G) fault, line to line (L-L) fault and three phases (L-L-L) fault. These faults are needed to be cleared quickly in order to reduce damage caused to the system and they have high impact on the electrical power system equipment’s which are connected in transmission line. The main fault in transmission line is L-G fault. Therefore, protection relays are needed to protect transmission line. Overcurrent and earth fault relay is an important relay used to protect transmission lines, distribution feeders, transformers and bus couplers etc. Sometimes these relays can be used as main protection or backup protection. The modeling of protection relays is important to indicate the effects of network parameters and configurations on the operation of relays. Therefore, the modeling of overcurrent and earth fault relay is described in this paper. The overcurrent and earth fault relays with standard inverse definite minimum time are modeled and simulated by using MATLAB/Simulink software. The developed model was tested with L-G, L-L-G, L-L and L-L-L faults with various fault locations and fault resistance (0.001Ω). The simulation results are obtained by MATLAB software which shows the feasibility of analysis of transmission line protection with overcurrent and earth fault relay.

Keywords: Transmission line, overcurrent and earth fault relay, standard inverse definite minimum time, various faults, MATLAB Software.

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Authors: Nooshin La'l Mohamadi

Abstract:

Due to the fact that in the new century customers tend to express globally increasing demands, networks of interconnected businesses have been established in societies and the management of such networks seems to be a major key through gaining competitive advantages. Supply chain management encompasses such managerial activities. Within a supply chain, a critical role is played by quality. QFD is a widely-utilized tool which serves the purpose of not only bringing quality to the ultimate provision of products or service packages required by the end customer or the retailer, but it can also initiate us into a satisfactory relationship with our initial customer; that is the wholesaler. However, the wholesalers- cooperation is considerably based on the capabilities that are heavily dependent on their locations and existing circumstances. Therefore, it is undeniable that for all companies each wholesaler possesses a specific importance ratio which can heavily influence the figures calculated in the House of Quality in QFD. Moreover, due to the competitiveness of the marketplace today, it-s been widely recognized that consumers- expression of demands has been highly volatile in periods of production. Apparently, such instability and proneness to change has been very tangibly noticed and taking it into account during the analysis of HOQ is widely influential and doubtlessly required. For a more reliable outcome in such matters, this article demonstrates the application viability of Analytic Network Process for considering the wholesalers- reputation and simultaneously introduces a mortality coefficient for the reliability and stability of the consumers- expressed demands in course of time. Following to this, the paper provides further elaboration on the relevant contributory factors and approaches through the calculation of such coefficients. In the end, the article concludes that an empirical application is needed to achieve broader validity.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process, Quality Function Deployment, QFD flaws, Supply Chain Management

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Authors: Amir Abbas Najafi, Nima Zoraghi, Fatemeh Azimi

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Traditionally, project scheduling and material planning have been treated independently. In this research, a mixed integer programming model is presented to integrate project scheduling and materials ordering problems. The goal is to minimize the total material holding and ordering costs. In addition, an efficient metaheuristic algorithm is proposed to solve the model. The proposed algorithm is computationally tested, the results are analyzed, and conclusions are given.

Keywords: Project scheduling, metaheuristic, material ordering, optimization.

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

This paper features the modeling and design of a Robust Decentralized Fast Output Sampling (RDFOS) Feedback control technique for the active vibration control of a smart flexible multimodel Euler-Bernoulli cantilever beams for a multivariable (MIMO) case by retaining the first 6 vibratory modes. The beam structure is modeled in state space form using the concept of piezoelectric theory, the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and the Finite Element Method (FEM) technique by dividing the beam into 4 finite elements and placing the piezoelectric sensor / actuator at two finite element locations (positions 2 and 4) as collocated pairs, i.e., as surface mounted sensor / actuator, thus giving rise to a multivariable model of the smart structure plant with two inputs and two outputs. Five such multivariable models are obtained by varying the dimensions (aspect ratios) of the aluminium beam. Using model order reduction technique, the reduced order model of the higher order system is obtained based on dominant Eigen value retention and the Davison technique. RDFOS feedback controllers are designed for the above 5 multivariable-multimodel plant. The closed loop responses with the RDFOS feedback gain and the magnitudes of the control input are obtained and the performance of the proposed multimodel smart structure system is evaluated for vibration control.

Keywords: Smart structure, Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, Fastoutput sampling feedback control, Finite Element Method, Statespace model, Vibration control, LMI, Model order Reduction.

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Authors: Sanchay Vaidya, Sourabh Gupta, Gouresh Singhal

Abstract:

There are various modes of transport in metro cities in India, auto-rickshaws being one of them. Auto-rickshaws provide connectivity to all the places in the city offering last mile connectivity. Among all the modes of transport the auto-rickshaw industry is the most unorganized and inefficient. Although unions exist in different cities they aren’t good enough to cope up with the upcoming advancements in the field of technology. An introduction of simple technology in this field may do wonders and help increase the revenues. This paper aims to organize this segment under a single umbrella using GPS devices and mobile phones. The paper includes surveys of about 300 auto-rickshaw drivers and 1000 plus commuters across 6 metro cities in India. Carrying out research and analysis provides a base for the development of this model and implementation of this innovative technique, which is discussed in this paper in detail with ample emphasis given on the implementation of this model.

Keywords: Auto-rickshaws, Business Model, GPS device, Mobile application.

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath, Student Member, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

This paper features the mathematical modeling of a single input single output based Timoshenko smart beam. Further, this mathematical model is used to design a multirate output feedback based discrete sliding mode controller using Bartoszewicz law to suppress the flexural vibrations. The first 2 dominant vibratory modes is retained. Here, an application of the discrete sliding mode control in smart systems is presented. The algorithm uses a fast output sampling based sliding mode control strategy that would avoid the use of switching in the control input and hence avoids chattering. This method does not need the measurement of the system states for feedback as it makes use of only the output samples for designing the controller. Thus, this methodology is more practical and easy to implement.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Discretesliding mode control, Bartoszewicz law, Finite Element Method, State space model, Vibration control, Mathematical model, SISO.

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Authors: Ioannis Manikas

Abstract:

The increased consumer demand for environmentally friendly production and distribution practices and the stricter environmental regulations turned environmental aspects into important criteria in business decision-making. On the other hand, Food and Nutrition Security (FNS) has evolved dramatically during the last decades in theory and practice serving as a reference point for exchanging experiences among all agents involved in programs and projects to fostering policy and strategy development. Global pressures make it more important than ever to gain a better understanding of the contribution that agrifood businesses make to FNS and to examine ways to make them more resilient in an increasingly globalized and uncertain world. This study extends the standard three-dimensional model of sustainability to include two more dimensions: A technological dimension and a policy/political dimension. Apart from the economic, environmental and social dimensions regularly used in sustainability literature, the extended model will accurately represent the measures and policies addressing food and nutrition security.

Keywords: Food and nutrition security, sustainability, food safety, resilience.

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Authors: Abdullah Madhi Alsharif, Jamal Uddin

Abstract:

A liquid curved jet has many applications in different industrial and engineering processes, such as the prilling process for generating small spherical pellets (fertilizer or magnesium). The liquids used are usually molten and contain small quantities of polymers and therefore can be modelled as non-Newtonian liquids. In this paper, we model the viscoelastic liquid jet by using the Oldroyd- B model. An asymptotic analysis has been used to simplify the governing equations. Furthermore, the trajectory and a linear temporal stability in the presence of gravity and rotation have been determined.

Keywords: gravity, prilling, rotation, viscoelastic jets.

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Authors: Isa Ahmadi, Ramin Khamedi

Abstract:

In this paper, the elasto-plastic and cyclic torsion of a shaft is studied using a finite element method. The Prager kinematic hardening theory of plasticity with the Ramberg and Osgood stress-strain equation is used to evaluate the cyclic loading behavior of the shaft under the torsional loading. The material of shaft is assumed to follow the non-linear strain hardening property based on the Prager model. The finite element method with C¹ continuity is developed and used for solution of the governing equations of the problem. The successive substitution iterative method is used to calculate the distribution of stresses and plastic strains in the shaft due to cyclic loads. The shear stress, effective stress, residual stress and elastic and plastic shear strain distribution are presented in the numerical results.

Keywords: Cyclic Loading, Finite Element Analysis, Prager Kinematic Hardening Model, Torsion of shaft.

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Authors: M. Rozanek, K. Roubik

Abstract:

A mathematical model of the respiratory system is introduced in this study. Geometrical dimensions of the respiratory system were used to compute the acoustic properties of the respiratory system using the electro-acoustic analogy. The effect of the geometrical proportions of the respiratory system is observed in the paper.

Keywords: Electro-acoustic analogy, total lung impedance, mechanical parameters, respiratory system.

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Authors: R. Khaniki, M.B. Menhaj, H. Eliasi

Abstract:

This paper describes the application of a model predictive controller to the problem of batch reactor temperature control. Although a great deal of work has been done to improve reactor throughput using batch sequence control, the control of the actual reactor temperature remains a difficult problem for many operators of these processes. Temperature control is important as many chemical reactions are sensitive to temperature for formation of desired products. This controller consist of two part (1) a nonlinear control method GLC (Global Linearizing Control) to create a linear model of system and (2) a Model predictive controller used to obtain optimal input control sequence. The temperature of reactor is tuned to track a predetermined temperature trajectory that applied to the batch reactor. To do so two input signals, electrical powers and the flow of coolant in the coil are used. Simulation results show that the proposed controller has a remarkable performance for tracking reference trajectory while at the same time it is robust against noise imposed to system output.

Keywords: Generalized Predictive Control (GPC), TemperatureControl, Global Linearizing Control (GLC), Batch Reactor.

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Authors: R. Khaniki, M.B. Menhaj, H. Eliasi

Abstract:

This paper describes the application of a model predictive controller to the problem of batch reactor temperature control. Although a great deal of work has been done to improve reactor throughput using batch sequence control, the control of the actual reactor temperature remains a difficult problem for many operators of these processes. Temperature control is important as many chemical reactions are sensitive to temperature for formation of desired products. This controller consist of two part (1) a nonlinear control method GLC (Global Linearizing Control) to create a linear model of system and (2) a Model predictive controller used to obtain optimal input control sequence. The temperature of reactor is tuned to track a predetermined temperature trajectory that applied to the batch reactor. To do so two input signals, electrical powers and the flow of coolant in the coil are used. Simulation results show that the proposed controller has a remarkable performance for tracking reference trajectory while at the same time it is robust against noise imposed to system output.

Keywords: Generalized Predictive Control (GPC), TemperatureControl, Global Linearizing Control (GLC), Batch Reactor.

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Authors: Ozlem Koprulu Bagbanci, M.Bilal Bagbanci

Abstract:

This paper presents the effects of migration at the urban sites with an integrated model under the sustainable local development policies for the conservation and revitalization of the site areas as a case at Reyhan heritage site in Bursa. It is known as the “City of immigrants" because of its richness of cultural plurality. The city has always regarded the dynamic impact of immigration as a positive contribution. As a result of this situation, the city created the earliest urbanization practices: being the first capital city of the Ottoman Empire. Bursa created the first modern movement practices and set the first Organized Industrial Zone. The most important aim of the study is to be offer a model for the similar areas with the context of conservation and revitalization of the historical areas, subjected to the local integrated sustainable development policies of local goverments.

Keywords: integration, migration, local policies, sustainability.

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Authors: J. Junk, M. Eickermann

Abstract:

The Small Hive Beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a parasite for honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, and was recently introduced to the European continent, accidentally. Based on the literature, a model was developed by using regional meteorological variables (daily values of minimum, maximum and mean air temperature as well as mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth) to calculate the time-point of hive invasion by A. tumida in springtime, the development duration of pupae as well as the number of generations of A. tumida per year. Luxembourg was used as a test region for our model for 2005 to 2013. The model output indicates a successful surviving of the Small Hive Beetle in Luxembourg with two up to three generations per year. Additionally, based on our meteorological data sets a first migration of SHB to apiaries can be expected from mid of March up to April. Our approach can be transferred easily to other countries to estimate the risk potential for a successful introduction and spreading of A. tumida in Western Europe.

Keywords: Aethina tumida, air temperature, larval development, soil temperature.

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Authors: Rujira Kongnuy

Abstract:

Leptospirosis is recognized as an important zoonosis in tropical regions well as an important animal disease with substantial loss in production. In this study, the model for the transmission of the Leptospirosis disease to human population are discussed. Model is described the vector population dynamics and the Leptospirosis transmission to the human population are discussed. Local analysis of equilibria are given. We confirm the results by using numerical results.

Keywords: Eigenvalues, Leptospirosis, Local Stability, Numerical Result

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Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

Abstract:

This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, econometric models, Nile Delta.

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Authors: J. Furuya, S. Kobayashi, S. D. Meyer

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This research examines possible effects of climatic change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model. Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or regions will have different trends depending on the context. These alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population, temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant further investigation.

Keywords: Global warming, SRES scenarios, World food model.

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