Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 31515
Establishing Econometric Modeling Equations for Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in the Nile Delta of Egypt under Current Climate Conditions

Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy


This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, econometric models, Nile Delta.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 701


[1] Akhamis MA, VanderWaal K. Spatial and Temporal Epidemiology of Lumpy Skin Disease in the Middle East, 2012–2015. Front in Vet Science 2016; 3, 19.
[2] Bowden TR, Couper BE, Babiuk SL, White JR, Boyed V, Dutch CJ, Shiell BJ, Ueda N, Parkyn GR, Copps JS, Boyle DB. Detection of antibodies specific for sheep pox viruses using recombinant capri pox virus antigens in an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. J of Virology Meth 2009; 16: 19-29.
[3] El Afandi G, Mostafa M, Fathy EH. Heavy Rainfall Simulation over Sinai Peninsula Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Inter J of Atmospheric Sciences 2013; 11 p.
[4] Gari G, Biteau-Coroller F, LeGoff C, Caufour P, Roger F. Evaluation of Indirect Fluorescent Antibody Test (IFAT) for the Diagnosis and Screening of Lumpy Skin Disease Using Bayesian Method. Vet Micro 2008; 129: 269-280.
[5] Haig DA. Lumpy skin disease. Bull. Epiz. Dis. Afr., 5:421430. Afr 1975; 5:42143.
[6] Ahmded I, El Afandi G, Reddy GP. Modelling an econometric regional equations for avian influenza outbreaks in Egypt under current climate conditions. Inter J of Biological Sciences and Applications 2014; 1: 72-78.
[7] Moenga BO, Muchemi GM, Kang’ethe E K, Kimenju JW, Mutiga ER, Matete GO. The impact of climate change on the incidence of cattle diseases in a pastoral area of Kenya. Lives Res for Rural Develop 2016; 25: 4.
[8] Mertz GA, Stryker JD, Huppi M. Changing animal disease patterns induced by the greenhouse effects. In J. Smith and D.A Tirpack (eds): The potential effects of global climate change on the United States. Appendix C- Agriculture, Volume 2. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington D.C 1989;11 ̶ 38