Search results for: simulation modeling

Authors: Wonsim Cha, Kibum Kim, Kyungwook Choi, Kihyung Lee

Abstract:

A co-generation system in automobile can improve thermal efficiency of vehicle in some degree. The waste heat from the engine exhaust and coolant is still attractive energy source that reaches around 60% of the total energy converted from fuel. To maximize the effectiveness of heat exchangers for recovering the waste heat, it is vital to select the most suitable working fluid for the system, not to mention that it is important to find the optimum design for the heat exchangers. The design of heat exchanger is out of scoop of this study; rather, the main focus has been on the right selection of working fluid for the co-generation system. Simulation study was carried out to find the most suitable working fluid that can allow the system to achieve the optimum efficiency in terms of the heat recovery rate and thermal efficiency.

Keywords: Cycle Analysis, Heat Recovery, Rankine Cycle, Waste Heat Recovery, Working Fluid.

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Authors: Wooyoung Jung, Ghang Lee

Abstract:

This paper reports the worldwide status of building information modeling (BIM) adoption from the perspectives of the engagement level, the Hype Cycle model, the technology diffusion model, and BIM services. An online survey was distributed, and 156 experts from six continents responded. Overall, North America was the most advanced continent, followed by Oceania and Europe. Countries in Asia perceived their phase mainly as slope of enlightenment (mature) in the Hype Cycle model. In the technology diffusion model, the main BIM-users worldwide were “early majority” (third phase), but those in the Middle East/Africa and South America were “early adopters” (second phase). In addition, the more advanced the country, the more number of BIM services employed in general. In summary, North America, Europe, Oceania, and Asia were advancing rapidly toward the mature stage of BIM, whereas the Middle East/Africa and South America were still in the early phase. The simple indexes used in this study may be used to track the worldwide status of BIM adoption in long-term surveys.

Keywords: BIM adoption, BIM services, Hype Cycle model, Technology diffusion model.

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Authors: Chien-Sheng Chen, Szu-Lin Su, Chuan-Der Lu

Abstract:

Wireless location is to determine the mobile station (MS) location in a wireless cellular communications system. When fewer base stations (BSs) may be available for location purposes or the measurements with large errors in non-line-of-sight (NLOS) environments, it is necessary to integrate all available heterogeneous measurements to achieve high location accuracy. This paper illustrates a hybrid proposed schemes that combine time of arrival (TOA) at three BSs and angle of arrival (AOA) information at the serving BS to give a location estimate of the MS. The proposed schemes mitigate the NLOS effect simply by the weighted sum of the intersections between three TOA circles and the AOA line without requiring a priori information about the NLOS error. Simulation results show that the proposed methods can achieve better accuracy when compare with Taylor series algorithm (TSA) and the hybrid lines of position algorithm (HLOP).

Keywords: Time of arrival (TOA), angle of arrival (AOA), non-line-of-sight (NLOS).

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Authors: M.E.Karbaschi, R.Goudarzizadeh, N.Hedayat

Abstract:

Cylindrical concrete reservoirs are appropriate choice for storing liquids as water, oil and etc. By using of the pre-cast concrete reservoirs instead of the in-situ constructed reservoirs, the speed and precision of the construction would considerably increase. In this construction method, wall and roof panels would make in factory with high quality materials and precise controlling. Then, pre-cast wall and roof panels would carry out to the construction site for assembling. This method has a few faults such as: the existing weeks in connection of wall panels together and wall panels to foundation. Therefore, these have to be resisted under applied loads such as seismic load. One of the innovative methods which was successfully applied for seismic retrofitting of numerous pre-cast cylindrical water reservoirs in New Zealand, using of the high tensile cables around the reservoirs and post-tensioning them. In this paper, analytical modeling of wall and roof panels and post-tensioned cables are carried out with finite element method and the effect of height to diameter ratio, post-tensioning force value, liquid level in reservoir, installing position of tendons on seismic response of reservoirs are investigated.

Keywords: Seismic Retrofit, Pre-Cast, Concrete Reservoir, Post-Tensioning.

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Authors: Pankaj Swarnkar, Shailendra Jain, R.K Nema

Abstract:

Adaptive control involves modifying the control law used by the controller to cope with the fact that the parameters of the system being controlled change drastically due to change in environmental conditions or in system itself. This technique is based on the fundamental characteristic of adaptation of living organism. The adaptive control process is one that continuously and automatically measures the dynamic behavior of plant, compares it with the desired output and uses the difference to vary adjustable system parameters or to generate an actuating signal in such a way so that optimal performance can be maintained regardless of system changes. This paper deals with application of model reference adaptive control scheme in first order system. The rule which is used for this application is MIT rule. This paper also shows the effect of adaptation gain on the system performance. Simulation is done in MATLAB and results are discussed in detail.

Keywords: Adaptive control system, Adaptation gain, MIT rule, Model reference adaptive control.

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Authors: M. H. Moradi, S. M. Moosavi, A. R. Reisi

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the enhancement of power system stability via coordinated tuning of Power System Stabilizers (PSSs) in a multi-machine power system. The design problem of the proposed controllers is formulated as an optimization problem. Chaotic catfish particle swarm optimization (C-Catfish PSO) algorithm is used to minimize the ITAE objective function. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on a two-area, 4- machines system. The robustness of the proposed algorithm is verified on this system under different operating conditions and applying a three-phase fault. The nonlinear time-domain simulation results and some performance indices show the effectiveness of the proposed controller in damping power system oscillations and this novel optimization algorithm is compared with particle swarm optimization (PSO).

Keywords: Power system stabilizer, C-Catfish PSO, ITAE objective function, Power system control, Multi-machine power system

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Authors: S. A. Ahmadi, S. Sharif, R. Jamshidi

Abstract:

In this article, the flow behavior around a NACA 0012 airfoil which is oscillating with different Reynolds numbers and in various amplitudes has been investigated numerically. Numerical simulations have been performed with ANSYS software. First, the 2- D geometry has been studied in different Reynolds numbers and angles of attack with various numerical methods in its static condition. This analysis was to choose the best turbulent model and comparing the grids to have the optimum one for dynamic simulations. Because the analysis was to study the blades of wind turbines, the Reynolds numbers were not arbitrary. They were in the range of 9.71e5 to 22.65e5. The angle of attack was in the range of -41.81° to 41.81°. By choosing the forward wind speed as the independent parameter, the others like Reynolds and the amplitude of the oscillation would be known automatically. The results show that the SST turbulent model is the best choice that leads the least numerical error with respect the experimental ones. Also, a dynamic stall phenomenon is more probable at lower wind speeds in which the lift force is less.

Keywords: Dynamic stall, Numerical simulation, Wind turbine, Turbulent Model

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Authors: Raouf Fareh, Maarouf Saad, Sofiane Khadraoui, Tamer Rabie

Abstract:

This paper presents a tracking control strategy based on Lyapunov approach for nonholonomic wheeled mobile robot. This control strategy consists of two levels. First, a kinematic controller is developed to adjust the right and left wheel velocities. Using this velocity control law, the stability of the tracking error is guaranteed using Lyapunov approach. This kinematic controller cannot be generated directly by the motors. To overcome this problem, the second level of the controllers, dynamic control, is designed. This dynamic control law is developed based on Lyapunov theory in order to track the desired trajectories of the mobile robot. The stability of the tracking error is proved using Lupunov and Barbalat approaches. Simulation results on a nonholonomic wheeled mobile robot are given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the presented approach.

Keywords: Mobile robot, trajectory tracking, Lyapunov, stability.

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Authors: Renato Santos Paulinelli Raposo, Vinicius Resende Domingues, Manoel Porfirio Cordao Neto

Abstract:

Rapid drawdown is one of the cases referred to ground stability study in dam projects. Due to the complexity generated by the combination of loads and the difficulty in determining the parameters, analyses of rapid drawdown are usually performed considering the immediate reduction of water level upstream. The proposal of a simulation, considering the gradual reduction in water level upstream, requires knowledge of parameters about consolidation and those related to unsaturated soil. In this context, the purpose of this study is to understand the methodology of collection and analysis of parameters to simulate a rapid drawdown in dams. Using a numerical tool, the study is complemented with a hypothetical case study that can assist the practical use of data compiled. The referenced dam presents homogeneous section composed of clay soil, a height of 70 meters, a width of 12 meters, and upstream slope with inclination 1V:3H.

Keywords: Dam, GeoStudio, rapid drawdown, stability analysis.

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Authors: Morteza Fathipour, Samira Omidbakhsh, Kimia Khodayari

Abstract:

RF performance of SOI CMOS device has attracted significant amount of interest recently. In order to improve RF parameters, Strained Si/Relaxed Si0.8Ge0.2 investigated as a replacement for Si technology .Enhancement of carrier mobility associated with strain engineering makes Strained Si a promising candidate for improving RF performance of CMOS technology. From the simulation, the cut-off frequency is estimated to be 224 GHZ, whereas in SOI at similar bias is about 188 GHZ. Therefore, Strained Si exhibits 19% improvement in cut-off frequency over similar Si counterpart. In this paper, Ion/Ioff ratio is studied as one of the key parameters in logic and digital application. Strained Si/SiGe demonstrates better Ion/Ioff characteristic than SOI, in similar channel length of 100 nm.Another important key analog figures of merit such as Early Voltage (VEA) ,transconductance vs drain current (gm /Ids) are studied. They introduce the efficiency of the devices to convert dc power into ac frequency.

Keywords: cut-off frequency, RF application, Silicon oninsulator, Strained Si/SiGe on insulator.

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Authors: Z. Pooranian, A. Barati, A. Movaghar

Abstract:

Wireless sensor networks include small nodes which have sensing ability; calculation and connection extend themselves everywhere soon. Such networks have source limitation on connection, calculation and energy consumption. So, since the nodes have limited energy in sensor networks, the optimized energy consumption in these networks is of more importance and has created many challenges. The previous works have shown that by organizing the network nodes in a number of clusters, the energy consumption could be reduced considerably. So the lifetime of the network would be increased. In this paper, we used the Queen-bee algorithm to create energy efficient clusters in wireless sensor networks. The Queen-bee (QB) is similar to nature in that the queen-bee plays a major role in reproduction process. The QB is simulated with J-sim simulator. The results of the simulation showed that the clustering by the QB algorithm decreases the energy consumption with regard to the other existing algorithms and increases the lifetime of the network.

Keywords: Queen-bee, sensor network, energy efficient, clustering.

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Authors: Mehrdad Mahmudizad, Roya Ahmadi Ahangar

Abstract:

This paper presents the method of designing the type 2 fuzzy PID controllers in order to solve the problem of Load Frequency Control (LFC). The Harmony Search (HS) algorithm is used to regulate the measurement factors and the effect of uncertainty of membership functions of Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (IT2FPID) controllers in order to reduce the frequency deviation resulted from the load oscillations. The simulation results implicitly show that the performance of the proposed IT2FPID LFC in terms of error, settling time and resistance against different load oscillations is more appropriate and preferred than PID and Type 1 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (T1FPID) controllers.

Keywords: Load Frequency Control, Fuzzy-PID controller, Type 2 fuzzy system, Harmony Search algorithm.

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Authors: F. Vallée, J-F. Toubeau, Z. De Grève, J. Lobry

Abstract:

When evaluating the capacity of a generation park to cover the load in transmission systems, traditional Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and Expected Energy not Served (EENS) indices can be used. If those indices allow computing the annual duration and severity of load non covering situations, they do not take into account the fact that the load excess is generally shifted from one penury state (hour or quarter of an hour) to the following one. In this paper, a sequential Monte Carlo framework is introduced in order to compute adjusted LOLE and EENS indices. Practically, those adapted indices permit to consider the effect of load excess transfer on the global adequacy of a generation park, providing thus a more accurate evaluation of this quantity.

Keywords: Expected Energy not Served, Loss of Load Expectation, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, wind generation.

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Authors: Benjamin Y. M. Kwan, Hon Keung Kwan

Abstract:

Noise contamination in a magnetic resonance (MR) image could occur during acquisition, storage, and transmission in which effective filtering is required to avoid repeating the MR procedure. In this paper, an iterative asymmetrical triangle fuzzy filter with moving average center (ATMAVi filter) is used to reduce different levels of salt and pepper noise in a brain MR image. Besides visual inspection on filtered images, the mean squared error (MSE) is used as an objective measurement. When compared with the median filter, simulation results indicate that the ATMAVi filter is effective especially for filtering a higher level noise (such as noise density = 0.45) using a smaller window size (such as 3x3) when operated iteratively or using a larger window size (such as 5x5) when operated non-iteratively.

Keywords: Brain images, Fuzzy filters, Magnetic resonance imaging, Salt and pepper noise reduction.

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

The Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression (RCDR) model is to developed from Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) model and Autoregressive (AR) model. The RCDR model is considered by adding exogenous variables to RCA model. In this paper, the concept of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used to estimate the parameter of RCDR(1,1) model. Simulation results have shown the AIC and BIC criterion to compare the performance of the the RCDR(1,1) model. The variables as the stationary and weakly stationary data are good estimates where the exogenous variables are weakly stationary. However, the model selection indicated that variables are nonstationarity data based on the stationary data of the exogenous variables.

Keywords: Autoregressive, Maximum Likelihood Method, Nonstationarity, Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression, Stationary.

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Authors: S. Abdollahi Pour, M. Saneei

Abstract:

This paper propose a new circuit design which monitor total leakage current during standby mode and generates the optimal reverse body bias voltage, by using the adaptive body bias (ABB) technique to compensate die-to-die parameter variations. Design details of power monitor are examined using simulation framework in 65nm and 32nm BTPM model CMOS process. Experimental results show the overhead of proposed circuit in terms of its power consumption is about 10 μW for 32nm technology and about 12 μW for 65nm technology at the same power supply voltage as the core power supply. Moreover the results show that our proposed circuit design is not far sensitive to the temperature variations and also process variations. Besides, uses the simple blocks which offer good sensitivity, high speed, the continuously feedback loop.

Keywords: leakage current, leakage power monitor, body biasing, low power

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Authors: B. Mohebi, N. Asadi, F. Kazemi

Abstract:

Inelastic deformation of the brace in Special Concentrically Braced Frame (SCBF) creates inelastic damages on gusset plate connections such as buckling at edges. In this study, to improve the seismic performance of SCBFs connections, an analytical study was undertaken. To improve the gusset plate connection, this study proposes using ‎edge’s stiffeners in both sides of gusset plate.‎ For this purpose, in order to examine edge’s stiffeners effect on gusset plate connections, two groups of modeling with and without considering edge’s stiffener and different types of braces were modeled using ABAQUS software. The results show that considering the edge’s stiffener reduces the equivalent plastic strain values at a connection region of gusset plate with beam and column, which can improve the seismic performance of gusset plate. Furthermore, considering the edge’s stiffeners significantly decreases the strain concentration at regions where gusset plates have been connected to beam and column. Moreover, considering 2t_pl distance causes reduction in the plastic strain.

Keywords: Special concentrically braced frame, gusset plate, edge’s stiffener, seismic performance.

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Authors: I. Abuiziah, A. Oulhaj, K. Sebari, D. Ouazar

Abstract:

The primary objectives of transient analysis are to determine the values of transient pressures that can result from flow control operations and to establish the design criteria for system equipment and devices (such as control devices and pipe wall thickness) so as to provide an acceptable level of protection against system failure due to pipe collapse or bursting. Because of the complexity of the equations needed to describe transients, numerical computer models are used to analyze transient flow hydraulics. An effective numerical model allows the hydraulic engineer to analyze potential transient events and to identify and evaluate alternative solutions for controlling hydraulic transients, thereby protecting the integrity of the hydraulic system. This paper presents the influence of using the protection devices to control the adverse effects due to excessive and low pressure occurs in the transient.

Keywords: Flow Transient, Water hammer, Pipeline System, Surge Tank, Simulation Model, Protection Devices.

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Authors: I. U. Wickramasinghe, D. J. Hargreaves, D. V. De Pellegrin

Abstract:

This paper presents a strategy to predict the lifetime of rails subjected to large rolling contact loads that induce ratchetting strains in the rail head. A critical element concept is used to calculate the number of loading cycles needed for crack initiation to occur in the rail head surface. In this technique the finite element method (FEM) is used to determine the maximum equivalent ratchetting strain per load cycle, which is calculated by combining longitudinal and shear stains in the critical element. This technique builds on a previously developed critical plane concept that has been used to calculate the number of cycles to crack initiation in rolling contact fatigue under ratchetting failure conditions. The critical element concept simplifies the analytical difficulties of critical plane analysis. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used to identify the critical element in the mesh, and then the strain values of the critical element are used to calculate the ratchetting rate analytically. Finally, a ratchetting criterion is used to calculate the number of cycles to crack initiation from the ratchetting rate calculated.

Keywords: Critical element analysis, finite element modeling (FEM), wheel/rail contact.

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Authors: Muthana A. M. Jameel Al-Jaboori

Abstract:

In this paper, we will present a mathematical model to design a system able to generate electricity from ocean-sea waves. We will use the basic principles of the transfer of the energy potential of waves in a chamber to force the air inside a vertical or inclined cylindrical column, which is topped by a wind turbine to rotate the electric generator. The present mathematical model included a high number of variables such as the wave, height, width, length, velocity, and frequency, as well as others for the energy cylindrical column, like varying diameters and heights, and the wave chamber shape diameter and height. While for the wells wind turbine the variables included the number of blades, length, width, and clearance, as well as the rotor and tip radius. Additionally, the turbine rotor and blades must be made from the light and strong material for a smooth blade surface. The variables were too vast and high in number. Then the program was run successfully within the MATLAB and presented very good modeling results.

Keywords: Water wave, model, wells turbine, MATLAB program, results.

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Authors: N. Thongjub, B. Puangkird, V. Ngamaramvaranggul

Abstract:

The numerical simulation of the slip effect via vicoelastic fluid for 4:1 contraction problem is investigated with regard to kinematic behaviors of streamlines and stress tensor by models of the Navier-Stokes and Oldroyd-B equations. Twodimensional spatial reference system of incompressible creeping flow with and without slip velocity is determined and the finite element method of a semi-implicit Taylor-Galerkin pressure-correction is applied to compute the problem of this Cartesian coordinate system including the schemes of velocity gradient recovery method and the streamline-Upwind / Petrov-Galerkin procedure. The slip effect at channel wall is added to calculate after each time step in order to intend the alteration of flow path. The result of stress values and the vortices are reduced by the optimum slip coefficient of 0.1 with near the outcome of analytical solution.

Keywords: Slip effect, Oldroyd-B fluid, slip coefficient, time stepping method.

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Authors: Chuan Li, Ming Liang, Qibing Yu

Abstract:

To improve the dynamics response of the vehicle passive suspension, a two-terminal mass is suggested to connect in parallel with the suspension strut. Three performance criteria, tire grip, ride comfort and suspension deflection, are taken into consideration to optimize the suspension parameters. However, the three criteria are conflicting and non-commensurable. For this reason, the Chebyshev goal programming method is applied to find the best tradeoff among the three objectives. A simulation case is presented to describe the multi-objective optimization procedure. For comparison, the Chebyshev method is also employed to optimize the design of a conventional passive suspension. The effectiveness of the proposed design method has been clearly demonstrated by the result. It is also shown that the suspension with a two-terminal mass in parallel has better performance in terms of the three objectives.

Keywords: Vehicle, passive suspension, two-terminal mass, optimization, Chebyshev goal programming

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Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Seung-Hwa Kang, Sang-Hee Kang, Soon-Ryul Nam

Abstract:

Wind farms usually produce power irregularly, due to  unpredictable change of wind speed. Accordingly, we should  determine the penetration limit of wind power to consider stability of  power system and build a facility to control the wind power. The  operational limit of wind power is determined as the minimum  between the technical limit and the dynamic limit of wind power. The  technical limit is calculated by the number of generators and the  dynamic limit is calculated by the constraint of frequency variation  when a wind farm is disconnected suddenly. According to the  determined operational limit of wind power, pitch angles of wind  generators are controlled. PSS/E simulation results show that the pitch  angles were correctly controlled when wind speeds are changed in  addition to loads.

Keywords: Pitch Angle, Dynamic limit, Operational limit, Technical limit.

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Authors: J. Kolář, V. Dvořák

Abstract:

In this work, we try to find the best setting of Computational Fluid Dynamic solver available for the problems in the field of supersonic internal flows. We used the supersonic air-toair ejector to represent the typical problem in focus. There are multiple oblique shock waves, shear layers, boundary layers and normal shock interacting in the supersonic ejector making this device typical in field of supersonic inner flows. Modeling of shocks in general is demanding on the physical model of fluid, because ordinary conservation equation does not conform to real conditions in the near-shock region as found in many works. From these reasons, we decided to take special care about solver setting in this article by means of experimental approach of color Schlieren pictures and pneumatic measurement. Fast pressure transducers were used to measure unsteady static pressure in regimes with normal shock in mixing chamber. Physical behavior of ejector in several regimes is discussed. Best choice of eddy-viscosity setting is discussed on the theoretical base. The final verification of the k-ω SST is done on the base of comparison between experiment and numerical results.

Keywords: CFD simulations, color Schlieren, k-ω SST, supersonic flows, shock waves.

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Authors: Rungnapa Taithai, Anant Oonsivilai

Abstract:

This paper presents optimal based damping controllers of Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) for improving the damping power system oscillations. The design problem of UPFC damping controller and system configurations is formulated as an optimization with time domain-based objective function by means of Adaptive Tabu Search (ATS) technique. The UPFC is installed in Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) for the performance analysis of the power system and simulated using MATLAB-s simulink. The simulation results of these studies showed that designed controller has an tremendous capability in damping power system oscillations.

Keywords: Adaptive Tabu Search (ATS), damping controller, Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB), Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC).

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Authors: K. Chalernpon, P. Aroonjarattham, K. Aroonjarattham

Abstract:

Total hip replacement had been one of the most successful operations in hip arthritis surgery. The purpose of this research had been to develop a dynamic hip contact of Thai femoral bone to analyze the stress distribution on the implant and the strain distribution on the bone model under daily activities and compared with the static load simulation. The results showed the different of maximum von Mises stress 0.14 percent under walking and 0.03 percent under climbing stair condition and the different of equivalent total strain 0.52 percent under walking and 0.05 percent under climbing stair condition. The muscular forces should be evaluated with dynamic condition to reduce the maximum von Mises stress and equivalent total strain.

Keywords: Dynamic loading, Static Load, Hip prosthesis, Thai femur, Femoral bone, Finite Element Analysis.

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Authors: Yizhi Gai, Yukinori Kobayashi, Yohei Hoshino, Takanori Emaru

Abstract:

Motion control of flexible arms is more difficult than that of rigid arms, however utilizing its dynamics enables improved performance such as a fast motion in short operation time. This paper investigates a ball throwing robot with one rigid link and one flexible link. This robot throws a ball at a set speed with a proper control torque. A mathematical model of this ball throwing robot is derived through Hamilton’s principle. Several patterns of torque input are designed and tested through the proposed simulation models. The parameters of each torque input pattern is optimized and determined by chaos embedded vector evaluated particle swarm optimization (CEVEPSO). Then, the residual vibration of the manipulator after throwing is suppressed with input shaping technique. Finally, a real experiment is set up for the model checking.

Keywords: Motion control, flexible robotic arm, CEVEPSO, ball throwing robot.

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Authors: G. Chandana Sushma, T. R. Jyothsna

Abstract:

This paper presents optimal Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) Placement in network using a genetic algorithm approach as it is infeasible and require high installation cost to place PMUs at every bus in network. This paper proposes optimal PMU allocation considering observability and redundancy utilizing Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach. The nonlinear constraints of buses are modeled to give accurate results. Constraints associated with Zero Injection (ZI) buses and radial buses are modeled to optimize number of locations for PMU placement. GA is modeled with ZI bus constraints to minimize number of locations without losing complete observability. Redundancy of every bus in network is computed to show optimum redundancy of complete system network. The performance of method is measured by Bus Observability Index (BOI) and Complete System Observability Performance Index (CSOPI). MATLAB simulations are carried out on IEEE -14, -30 and -57 bus-systems and compared with other methods in literature survey to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Constraints, genetic algorithm, observability, phasor measurement units, redundancy, synchrophasors, zero injection bus.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper proposes entropic programming for the freighter aircraft selection problem using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive framework by focusing on the perspective of freighter aircraft selection. In order to achieve this goal, an integrated entropic programming approach was proposed to evaluate and rank alternatives. The decision criteria and aircraft alternatives were identified from the research data analysis. The objective criteria weights were determined by the mean weight method and the standard deviation method. The proposed entropic programming model was applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting freighter aircraft. The proposed entropic programming technique gives robust, reliable, and efficient results in modeling decision making analysis problems. As a result of entropic programming analysis, Boeing B747-8F, a freighter aircraft alternative ( a3), was chosen as the most suitable freighter aircraft candidate.   

Keywords: entropic programming, additive weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS, aircraft selection, freighter aircraft, Boeing B747-8F, Boeing B777F, Airbus A350F

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