Search results for: Basis pursuit
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1081

Search results for: Basis pursuit

751 Development of Mobile Application for Energy Consumption Assessment of University Buildings

Authors: M. H. Chung, B. Y. Lee, Y. Kim, E. K. Rhee

Abstract:

With an increase in the interest in the energy conservation for buildings, and the emergence of many methods and easily-understandable approaches to it, energy conservation has now become the public’s main interest, as compared to in the past when it was only focused upon by experts. This study aims to help the occupants of a building to understand the energy efficiency and consumption of the building by providing them information on the building’s energy efficiency through a mobile application. The energy performance assessment models are proposed on the basis of the actual energy usage and building characteristics such as the architectural scheme and the building equipment. The university buildings in Korea are used as a case to demonstrate the mobile application.

Keywords: Energy consumption, energy performance assessment, mobile application, university buildings.

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750 Possibilistic Aggregations in the Investment Decision Making

Authors: I. Khutsishvili, G. Sirbiladze, B. Ghvaberidze

Abstract:

This work proposes a fuzzy methodology to support the investment decisions. While choosing among competitive investment projects, the methodology makes ranking of projects using the new aggregation OWA operator – AsPOWA, presented in the environment of possibility uncertainty. For numerical evaluation of the weighting vector associated with the AsPOWA operator the mathematical programming problem is constructed. On the basis of the AsPOWA operator the projects’ group ranking maximum criteria is constructed. The methodology also allows making the most profitable investments into several of the project using the method developed by the authors for discrete possibilistic bicriteria problems. The article provides an example of the investment decision-making that explains the work of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Expert evaluations, investment decision making, OWA operator, possibility uncertainty.

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749 A Metametadata Architecture forPedagogic Data Description

Authors: A. Ismail, M. S. Joy, J. E. Sinclair, M. I. Hamzah

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a novel method for semantic searching and retrieval of information about learning materials. Metametadata encapsulate metadata instances by using the properties and attributes provided by ontologies rather than describing learning objects. A novel metametadata taxonomy has been developed which provides the basis for a semantic search engine to extract, match and map queries to retrieve relevant results. The use of ontological views is a foundation for viewing the pedagogical content of metadata extracted from learning objects by using the pedagogical attributes from the metametadata taxonomy. Using the ontological approach and metametadata (based on the metametadata taxonomy) we present a novel semantic searching mechanism.These three strands – the taxonomy, the ontological views, and the search algorithm – are incorporated into a novel architecture (OMESCOD) which has been implemented.

Keywords: Metadata, metametadata, semantic, ontologies.

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748 Near-Lossless Image Coding based on Orthogonal Polynomials

Authors: Krishnamoorthy R, Rajavijayalakshmi K, Punidha R

Abstract:

In this paper, a near lossless image coding scheme based on Orthogonal Polynomials Transform (OPT) has been presented. The polynomial operators and polynomials basis operators are obtained from set of orthogonal polynomials functions for the proposed transform coding. The image is partitioned into a number of distinct square blocks and the proposed transform coding is applied to each of these individually. After applying the proposed transform coding, the transformed coefficients are rearranged into a sub-band structure. The Embedded Zerotree (EZ) coding algorithm is then employed to quantize the coefficients. The proposed transform is implemented for various block sizes and the performance is compared with existing Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) transform coding scheme.

Keywords: Near-lossless Coding, Orthogonal Polynomials Transform, Embedded Zerotree Coding

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747 A Novel Approach to EMABS and Comparison with ABS

Authors: Mehrdad N. Khajavi, Abbas Hosseini, N.Bani Mostafa

Abstract:

In this paper two different Antilock braking system (ABS) are simulated and compared. One is the ordinary hydraulic ABS system which we call it ABS and the other is Electromagnetic Antilock braking system which is called (EMABS) the basis of performance of an EMABS is based upon Electromagnetic force. In this system there is no need to use servo hydraulic booster which are used in ABS system. In EMABS to generate the desired force we have use a magnetic relay which works with an input voltage through an air gap (g). The generated force will be amplified by the relay arm, and is applied to the brake shoes and thus the braking torque is generated. The braking torque is proportional to the applied electrical voltage E. to adjust the braking torque it is only necessary to regulate the electrical voltage E which is very faster and has a much smaller time constant T than the ABS system. The simulations of these two different ABS systems are done with MATLAB/SIMULINK software and the superiority of the EMABS has been shown.

Keywords: ABS, EMABS, ECU

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746 Basket Option Pricing under Jump Diffusion Models

Authors: Ali Safdari-Vaighani

Abstract:

Pricing financial contracts on several underlying assets received more and more interest as a demand for complex derivatives. The option pricing under asset price involving jump diffusion processes leads to the partial integral differential equation (PIDEs), which is an extension of the Black-Scholes PDE with a new integral term. The aim of this paper is to show how basket option prices in the jump diffusion models, mainly on the Merton model, can be computed using RBF based approximation methods. For a test problem, the RBF-PU method is applied for numerical solution of partial integral differential equation arising from the two-asset European vanilla put options. The numerical result shows the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.

Keywords: Radial basis function, basket option, jump diffusion, RBF-PUM.

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745 Digital Narrative as a Change Agent to Teach Reading to Media-Centric Students

Authors: Robert F. Kenny

Abstract:

Because today-s media centric students have adopted digital as their native form of communication, teachers are having increasingly difficult time motivating reluctant readers to read and write. Our research has shown these text-averse individuals can learn to understand the importance of reading and writing if the instruction is based on digital narratives. While these students are naturally attracted to story, they are better at consuming them than creating them. Therefore, any intervention that utilizes story as its basis needs to include instruction on the elements of story making. This paper presents a series of digitally-based tools to identify potential weaknesses of visually impaired visual learners and to help motivate these and other media-centric students to select and complete books that are assigned to them

Keywords: Cognitive tempo, digital narratives, digital Booktalk

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744 Current Strategic Trends – A Comparative Analysis of Hungarian Corporations

Authors: Gyula Fülöp, Bettina Hernádi

Abstract:

This paper deals with current strategic challenges related to the reshaping of the basic conditions of corporate operations. Through the experimental analysis of some domestic corporations, it presents how and to what extent Hungarian corporations are prepared for the current strategic challenges. The study examines how strategic directions and answer opportunities have changed in the following interrelated areas in the past five years: economic globalization, corporate sustainability, IT applications, labor force diversity and ethical competences. The conclusions of the empirical survey give a reliable basis on which economic organizations and enterprises can formulate their strategy.

Keywords: Economic globalization, corporate sustainability, IT applications, labor force diversity, ethical competences.

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743 Evaluation of Protein Digestibility in Canola Meals between Caecectomised and Intact Adult Cockerels

Authors: Ali Nouri Emamzadeh, Akbar Yaghobfar

Abstract:

The experiment was conducted to evaluate digestibility quantities of protein in Canola Meals (CMs) between caecectomised and intact adult Rhode Island Red (RIR) cockerels with using conventional addition method (CAM) for 7 d: a 4-d adaptation and a 3-d experiment period on the basis of a completely randomized design with 4 replicates. Results indicated that caecectomy decreased (P<0.05) apparent and true digestibility quantities of protein for CMs, except for CMs 2 and 3. The mean apparent and true digestibility quantities for all CMs in caecectomised (80.5 and 81.4%, respectively) were (3.1 and 3.3%, respectively) less (P<0.05) than intact cockerels (83.6 and 84.7%, respectively). Therefore, the caecectomy method increases accuracy of the digestibility measurements of protein for this meal in bioassays based on excreta collection in adult cockerels.

Keywords: Adult cockerels, caecectomy, canola meals, proteindigestibility.

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742 Novel GPU Approach in Predicting the Directional Trend of the S&P 500

Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

Abstract:

Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-ofsample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: Financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction.

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741 The Link between Distributed Leadership and Educational Outcomes: An Overview of Research

Authors: Maria Eliophotou Menon

Abstract:

School leadership is commonly considered to have a significant influence on school effectiveness and improvement. Effective school leaders are expected to successfully introduce and support change and innovation at the school unit. Despite an abundance of studies on educational leadership, very few studies have provided evidence on the link between leadership models, and specific educational and school outcomes. This is true of a popular contemporary approach to leadership, namely, distributed leadership. The paper provides an overview of research findings on the effect of distributed leadership on educational outcomes. The theoretical basis for this approach to leadership is presented, with reference to methodological and research limitations. The paper discusses research findings and draws their implications for educational research on school leadership.

Keywords: Distributed leadership, educational outcomes, leadership research.

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740 Analysis of the Main Concepts and Discussions Involving Sustainable Tourism

Authors: Veruska C. Dutra, Mary L. G. S. Senna

Abstract:

The development of tourism is on the use of landscapes, natural or constructed, which involves a number of factors that contribute to the deterioration of nature. Tourist activity coupled with sustainable development has led to the emergence of many questions about these terms, since they are not well defined in this sense through literature searches. The present study was to analyze the main concepts and discussions involving sustainable tourism, providing reflections that can cause answers about one of the main questions in today's activity sector on whether its sustainability is a myth or reality. The methodology of this study is discussions, theoretical studies and bibliographic research. The results showed that the scholars who address the issue, often leave uncertainty about some discussions that demonstrate that there are still many studies to be conducted in order to prove that the claims so as to form the basis of what will be Tourism sustainable.

Keywords: Tourism, sustainability, development, discussions.

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739 Technology Readiness Index (TRI) among USM Distance Education Students According to Age

Authors: A.A.Andaleeb, Rozhan.M.Idrus, Issham Ismail, A.K. Mokaram

Abstract:

This paper reports the findings of a research conducted to evaluate the ownership and usage of technology devices within Distance Education students- according to their age. This research involved 45 Distance Education students from USM Universiti Sains Malaysia (DEUSM) as its respondents. Data was collected through questionnaire that had been developed by the researchers based on some literature review. The data was analyzed to find out the frequencies of respondents agreements towards ownership of technology devices and the use of technology devices. The findings shows that all respondents own mobile phone and majority of them reveal that they use mobile on regular basis. The student in the age 30-39 has the heist ownership of the technology devices.

Keywords: technology devices, mobile phone, distance learners, techno readiness Index, Age

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738 Strategies of Education and Training Practice of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises

Authors: A. Bencsik, - A. Sólyom

Abstract:

The role of knowledge is a determinative factor in the life of economy and society. To determine knowledge is not an easy task yet the real task is to determine the right knowledge. From this view knowledge is a sum of experience, ideas and cognitions which can help companies to remain in markets and to realize a maximum profit. At the same time changes of circumstances project in advance that contents and demands of the right knowledge are changing. In this paper we will analyse a special segment on the basis of an empirical survey. We investigated the behaviour and strategies of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the area of knowledge-handling. This survey was realized by questionnaires and wide range statistical methods were used during processing. As a result we will show how these companies are prepared to operate in a knowledge-based economy and in which areas they have prominent deficiencies.

Keywords: education, knowledge, knowledgemanagement, strategy, SME

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737 Survey on Energy Efficient Routing Protocols in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

Authors: Swapnil Singh, Sanjoy Das

Abstract:

Mobile Ad-Hoc Network (MANET) is a network without infrastructure dynamically formed by autonomous system of mobile nodes that are connected via wireless links. Mobile nodes communicate with each other on the fly. In this network each node also acts as a router. The battery power and the bandwidth are very scarce resources in this network. The network lifetime and connectivity of nodes depend on battery power. Therefore, energy is a valuable constraint which should be efficiently used. In this paper we survey various energy efficient routing protocols. The energy efficient routing protocols are classified on the basis of approaches they use to minimize the energy consumption. The purpose of this paper is to facilitate the research work and combine the existing solution and to develop a more energy efficient routing mechanism.

Keywords: Delaunay Triangulation, deployment, energy efficiency, MANET.

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736 Lightweight Materials Obtained by Utilization of Agricultural Waste

Authors: Bogdan Bogdanov, Irena Markovska, Yancho Hristov, Dimitar Georgiev

Abstract:

Lightweight ceramic materials in the form of bricks and blocks are widely used in modern construction. They may be obtained by adding of rice husk, rye straw, etc, as porous forming materials. Rice husk is a major by-product of the rice milling industry. Its utilization as a valuable product has always been a problem. Various technologies for utilization of rice husk through biological and thermochemical conversion are being developed. The purpose of this work is to develop lightweight ceramic materials with clay matrix and filler of rice husk and examine their main physicomechanical properties. The results obtained allow to suppose that the materials synthesized on the basis of waste materials can be used as lightweight materials for construction purpose.

Keywords: lightweight ceramic materials, properties, agro-waste

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735 Virtual E-Medic: A Cloud Based Medical Aid

Authors: Madiajagan Muthaiyan, Neha Goel, Deepti Sunder Prakash

Abstract:

This paper discusses about an intelligent system to be installed in ambulances providing professional support to the paramedics on board. A video conferencing device over mobile 4G services enables specialists virtually attending the patient being transferred to the hospital. The data centre holds detailed databases on the patients past medical history and hospitals with the specialists. It also hosts various software modules that compute the shortest traffic –less path to the closest hospital with the required facilities, on inputting the symptoms of the patient, on a real time basis.

Keywords: 4G mobile services, cloud computing, data centre, intelligent system, optimization, real time traffic reporting, SaaS, video conferencing.

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734 Developing Research Involving Different Species: Opportunities and Empirical Foundations

Authors: A. V. Varfolomeeva, N. S. Tkachenko, A. G. Tishchenko

Abstract:

In this study, we addressed the problem of weak validity, implausible results, and inaccurate reporting in psychological research on different species. The theoretical basis of the study was the systems-evolutionary approach (SEA). We assumed that the root of the problem is the values and attitudes of the researchers (in particular anthropomorphism and anthropocentrism). The first aim of the study was the formulation of a research design that avoids this problem. Based on a literature review, we concluded that such design, amongst other things, should include methodics with playful components. The second aim was to conduct a series of studies on the differences in the formation of instrumental skill in rats raised and housed in different environments. As a result, we revealed that there are contradictions between some of the statements of SEA, so that it is not possible to choose one of the alternative hypotheses. We suggested that in order to get out of this problem, it is necessary to modify these provisions by aligning them with the attitude of multicentrism.

Keywords: epistemological attitudes, experimental design, validity, psychological structure, learning

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733 Classification of Prostate Cell Nuclei using Artificial Neural Network Methods

Authors: M. Sinecen, M. Makinacı

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to assess the value of neural networks for classification of cancer and noncancer prostate cells. Gauss Markov Random Fields, Fourier entropy and wavelet average deviation features are calculated from 80 noncancer and 80 cancer prostate cell nuclei. For classification, artificial neural network techniques which are multilayer perceptron, radial basis function and learning vector quantization are used. Two methods are utilized for multilayer perceptron. First method has single hidden layer and between 3-15 nodes, second method has two hidden layer and each layer has between 3-15 nodes. Overall classification rate of 86.88% is achieved.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, texture classification, cancer diagnosis.

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732 Integrating Life Cycle Uncertainties for Evaluating a Building Overall Cost

Authors: M. Arja, G. Sauce, B. Souyri

Abstract:

Overall cost is a significant consideration in any decision-making process. Although many studies were carried out on overall cost in construction, little has treated the uncertainties of real life cycle development. On the basis of several case studies, a feedback process was performed on the historical data of studied buildings. This process enabled to identify some factors causing uncertainty during the operational period. As a result, the research proposes a new method for assessing the overall cost during a part of the building-s life cycle taking account of the building actual value, its end-of-life value and the influence of the identified life cycle uncertainty factors. The findings are a step towards a higher level of reliability in overall cost evaluation taking account of some usually unexpected uncertainty factors.

Keywords: Asset management, building life cycle uncertainty, building value, overall cost.

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731 Japan’s Policy towards the Countries of Central Asia

Authors: R. Sadykova

Abstract:

This article analyses the peculiarities of Japan’s policy toward the countries of Central Asia. The increasing role of Central Asia in the system of international relations engendered an objective need for understanding of the policy of leading states, including Japan, in the region in the twenty-first century. The purpose of the study is to investigate the peculiarities of the formation and development of Japan policy in Central Asia and to identify the problems and prospects of Japan’s policy toward the countries of the region on the basis of experts’ opinions. In this article, the method of analysis of the situation and a systematic method were used. Prognostic methods, the collective expert assessment and scenarios were used in the study to determine the prospects of Japan’s policy toward the countries of Central Asia.

Keywords: Japan, Central Asia, the Eurasian concept, ‘Central Asia plus Japan’ Dialogue.

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730 Definition in Law: Transgender Identities and Marriage

Authors: Kimberly Tao

Abstract:

This paper looks at transgender identities and the law in the context of marriage. It particularly focuses on the role of language and definition in classifying transgendered individuals into a legal category. Two lines of cases in transgender jurisprudence are examined. The former cases decided the definition of 'man' and 'woman' on the basis of biological criteria while the latter cases held that biological factors should not be the sole criterion for defining a man or a woman. Three categories were found to classify transgender people, namely male, female and "monstrous". Since transgender people challenge the core gender distinction that the law stresses, they are often regarded as problematic and monstrous which caused them to be subjected to severe legal consequences. This paper discusses these issues by analyzing and comparing different cases in transgender jurisprudence as well as examining how these issues play out in contemporary Hong Kong.

Keywords: Trangender, Monstrousness, Categorization, Definition.

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729 Does Labour Supply Respond to Globalisation? Malaysia Evidence from Micro Data

Authors: Poo Bee Tin, Rahmah Ismail, Norasmah Othman

Abstract:

Globalisation is a phenomenon that cannot be avoided. As globalisation allowed free flow of inputs including labour, it may affect job opportunities for the locals. Therefore, investigate the determinants of labour supply is essential in understanding the structure of labour market in the new era of globalization. The objective of this article is to examine labour supply by taking into account the globalisation effect. The study covers 3885 households in Peninsular Malaysia who are chosen using stratified random sampling. The labour supply model will be the basis for the analysis. The basic labour supply determinants are own wage and non-labour income. However, the extended labour supply model incorporates other variables like spouse wage,number of children and individuals characteristics like education level and age. Besides, the globalization indicator will also be incorporated as another independent variable.

Keywords: globalization, head of households, labour supply, wage

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728 Predictability Analysis on HIV/AIDS System using Hurst Exponents

Authors: K. Kamalanand, P. Mannar Jawahar

Abstract:

Methods of contemporary mathematical physics such as chaos theory are useful for analyzing and understanding the behavior of complex biological and physiological systems. The three dimensional model of HIV/AIDS is the basis of active research since it provides a complete characterization of disease dynamics and the interaction of HIV-1 with the immune system. In this work, the behavior of the HIV system is analyzed using the three dimensional HIV model and a chaotic measure known as the Hurst exponent. Results demonstrate that Hurst exponents of CD4, CD8 cells and viral load vary nonlinearly with respect to variations in system parameters. Further, it was observed that the three dimensional HIV model can accommodate both persistent (H>0.5) and anti-persistent (H<0.5) dynamics of HIV states. In this paper, the objectives of the study, methodology and significant observations are presented in detail.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, mathematical model, chaos theory, Hurst exponent

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727 Learning an Overcomplete Dictionary using a Cauchy Mixture Model for Sparse Decay

Authors: E. S. Gower, M. O. J. Hawksford

Abstract:

An algorithm for learning an overcomplete dictionary using a Cauchy mixture model for sparse decomposition of an underdetermined mixing system is introduced. The mixture density function is derived from a ratio sample of the observed mixture signals where 1) there are at least two but not necessarily more mixture signals observed, 2) the source signals are statistically independent and 3) the sources are sparse. The basis vectors of the dictionary are learned via the optimization of the location parameters of the Cauchy mixture components, which is shown to be more accurate and robust than the conventional data mining methods usually employed for this task. Using a well known sparse decomposition algorithm, we extract three speech signals from two mixtures based on the estimated dictionary. Further tests with additive Gaussian noise are used to demonstrate the proposed algorithm-s robustness to outliers.

Keywords: expectation-maximization, Pitman estimator, sparsedecomposition

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726 A Statistical Identification Approach by the Boundary Field Changes

Authors: Rumena D. Stancheva, Ilona I. Iatcheva

Abstract:

In working mode some unexpected changes could be arise in inner structure of electromagnetic device. They influence modification in electromagnetic field propagation map. The field values at an observed boundary are also changed. The development of the process has to be watched because the arising structural changes would provoke the device to be gone out later. The probabilistic assessment of the state is possible to be made. The numerical assessment points if the resulting changes have only accidental character or they are due to the essential inner structural disturbances. The presented application example is referring to the 200MW turbine-generator. A part of the stator core end teeth zone is simulated broken. Quasi three-dimensional electromagnetic and temperature field are solved applying FEM. The stator core state diagnosis is proposed to be solved as an identification problem on the basis of a statistical criterion.

Keywords: Identification, structural disturbance, statistical criterion.

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725 CSR of top Portuguese Companies: Relation between Social Performance and Economic Performance

Authors: Afonso, S. C., Fernandes, P. O., Monte, A. P.

Abstract:

Modern times call organizations to have an active role in the social arena, through Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The objective of this research was to test the hypothesis that there is a positive relation between social performance and economic performance, and if there is a positive correlation between social performance and financial-economic performance. To test these theories a measure of social performance, based on the Green Book of Commission of the European Community, was used in a group of nineteen Portuguese top companies, listed on the PSI 20 index, through a period of five years, since 2005 to 2009. A clusters analysis was applied to group companies by their social performance and to compare and correlate their economic performance. Results indicate that companies that had a better social performance are not the ones who had a better economic performance, and suggest that the middle path might provide a good relation CSR-Economic performance, as a basis to a sustainable development.

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility, Economic Performance, Win-Win relationship

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724 Modeling Corporate Memories using the ReCaRo Model, Some Experiments

Authors: Lotfi Admane

Abstract:

This paper presents a model of case based corporate memory named ReCaRo (REsource, CAse, ROle). The approach suggested in ReCaRo decomposes the domain to model through a set of components. These components represent the objects developed by the company during its activity. They are reused, and sometimes, while bringing adaptations. These components are enriched by knowledge after each reuse. ReCaRo builds the corporate memory on the basis of these components. It models two types of knowledge: 1) Business Knowledge, which constitutes the main knowledge capital of the company, refers to its basic skill, thus, directly to the components and 2) the Experience Knowledge which is a specialised knowledge and represents the experience gained during the handling of business knowledge. ReCaRo builds corporate memories which are made up of five communicating ones.

Keywords: Corporate memories, meta-model, reuse, ReCaRo.

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723 A Serial Hierarchical Support Vector Machine and 2D Feature Sets Act for Brain DTI Segmentation

Authors: Mohammad Javadi

Abstract:

Serial hierarchical support vector machine (SHSVM) is proposed to discriminate three brain tissues which are white matter (WM), gray matter (GM), and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). SHSVM has novel classification approach by repeating the hierarchical classification on data set iteratively. It used Radial Basis Function (rbf) Kernel with different tuning to obtain accurate results. Also as the second approach, segmentation performed with DAGSVM method. In this article eight univariate features from the raw DTI data are extracted and all the possible 2D feature sets are examined within the segmentation process. SHSVM succeed to obtain DSI values higher than 0.95 accuracy for all the three tissues, which are higher than DAGSVM results.

Keywords: Brain segmentation, DTI, hierarchical, SVM.

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722 Forecasting Rainfall in Thailand: A Case Study of Nakhon Ratchasima Province

Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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