Search results for: axial power distribution

Authors: Yohei Saika, Yuji Haraguchi

Abstract:

We constructed a method of noise reduction for JPEG-compressed image based on Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal (MPM) estimate. In this method, we tried the MPM estimate using two kinds of likelihood, both of which enhance grayscale images converted into the JPEG-compressed image through the lossy JPEG image compression. One is the deterministic model of the likelihood and the other is the probabilistic one expressed by the Gaussian distribution. Then, using the Monte Carlo simulation for grayscale images, such as the 256-grayscale standard image “Lena" with 256 × 256 pixels, we examined the performance of the MPM estimate based on the performance measure using the mean square error. We clarified that the MPM estimate via the Gaussian probabilistic model of the likelihood is effective for reducing noises, such as the blocking artifacts and the mosquito noise, if we set parameters appropriately. On the other hand, we found that the MPM estimate via the deterministic model of the likelihood is not effective for noise reduction due to the low acceptance ratio of the Metropolis algorithm.

Keywords: Noise reduction, JPEG-compressed image, Bayesian inference, the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate

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Authors: Safa Boudhaouia, Mohamed Amen Gahbiche, Eliane Giraud, Wacef Ben Salem, Philippe Dal Santo

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Multi-point forming (MPF) and asymmetric incremental forming (ISF) are two flexible processes for sheet metal manufacturing. To take advantages of these two techniques, a hybrid process has been developed: The Multipoint Incremental Forming (MPIF). This process accumulates at once the advantages of each of these last mentioned forming techniques, which makes it a very interesting and particularly an efficient process for single, small, and medium series production. In this paper, an experimental and a numerical investigation of this technique are presented. To highlight the flexibility of this process and its capacity to manufacture standard and complex shapes, several pieces were produced by using MPIF. The forming experiments are performed on a 3-axis CNC machine. Moreover, a numerical model of the MPIF process has been implemented in ABAQUS and the analysis showed a good agreement with experimental results in terms of deformed shape. Furthermore, the use of an elastomeric interpolator allows avoiding classical local defaults like dimples, which are generally caused by the asymmetric contact and also improves the distribution of residual strain. Future works will apply this approach to other alloys used in aeronautic or automotive applications.

Keywords: Incremental forming, numerical simulation, MPIF, multipoint forming.

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Authors: Kyoung-il Do, Byung-seok Lee, Hee-guk Chae, Jeong-yun Seo Yong-seo Koo

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In this paper, a Silicon Controlled Rectifier (SCR)-based Electrostatic Discharge (ESD) protection circuit with high holding voltage and high robustness characteristics is proposed. Unlike conventional SCR, the proposed circuit has low trigger voltage and high holding voltage and provides effective ESD protection with latch-up immunity. In addition, the TCAD simulation results show that the proposed circuit has better electrical characteristics than the conventional SCR. A stack technology was used for voltage-specific applications. Consequentially, the proposed circuit has a trigger voltage of 17.60 V and a holding voltage of 3.64 V.

Keywords: ESD, SCR, latch-up, power clamp, holding voltage.

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Authors: Peter Odero Akuon

Abstract:

A rain cell ratio model is proposed that computes attenuation of the smallest rain cell which represents the maximum rain rate value i.e. the cell size when rainfall rate is exceeded 0.01% of the time, R_0.01 and predicts attenuation for other cells as the ratio with this maximum. This model incorporates the dependence of the path factor r on the ellipsoidal path variation of the Fresnel zone at different frequencies. In addition, the inhomogeneity of rainfall is modeled by a rain drop packing density factor. In order to derive the model, two empirical methods that can be used to find rain cell size distribution D_c are presented. Subsequently, attenuation measurements from different climatic zones for terrestrial radio links with frequencies F in the range 7-38 GHz are used to test the proposed model. Prediction results show that the path factor computed from the rain cell ratio technique has improved reliability when compared with other path factor and effective rain rate models, including the current ITU-R 530-15 model of 2013.

Keywords: Packing density of rain drops, prediction model, rain attenuation, rain cell ratio technique.

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Authors: M. H. Abedi, A. Jalilvand

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The economic development benefits of wind energy may be the most tangible basis for the local and state officials’ interests. In addition to the direct salaries associated with building and operating wind projects, the wind energy industry provides indirect jobs and benefits. The optimal planning of a wind farm is one most important topic in renewable energy technology. Many methods have been implemented to optimize the cost and output benefit of wind farms, but the contribution of this paper is mentioning different types of service providers and also time of installation of wind turbines during planning horizon years. Genetic algorithm (GA) is used to optimize the problem. It is observed that an appropriate layout of wind farm can cause to minimize the different types of cost.

Keywords: Renewable energy, wind farm, optimization, planning.

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Authors: N. Q. Bau, N. V. Nghia

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The acoustomagnetoelectric (AME) field in a rectangular quantum wire with an infinite potential (RQWIP) is calculated in the presence of an external magnetic field (EMF) by using the quantum kinetic equation for the distribution function of electrons system interacting with external phonons and electrons scattering with internal acoustic phonon in a RQWIP. We obtained ananalytic expression for the AME field in the RQWIP in the presence of the EMF. The dependence of AME field on the frequency of external acoustic wave, the temperature T of system, the cyclotron frequency of the EMF and the intensity of the EMF is obtained. Theoretical results for the AME field are numerically evaluated, plotted and discussed for a specific RQWIP GaAs/GaAsAl. This result has shown that the dependence of the AME field on intensity of the EMF is nonlinearly and it is many distinct maxima in the quantized magnetic region. We also compared received fields with those for normal bulk semiconductors, quantum well and quantum wire to show the difference. The influence of an EMF on AME field in a RQWIP is newly developed.

Keywords: Rectangular quantum wire, acoustomagnetoelectric field, electron-phonon interaction, kinetic equation method.

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Authors: S. Cagin, X. Fischer, E. Delacourt, N. Bourabaa, C. Morin, D. Coutellier, B. Carré, S. Loumé

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The complexity of scavenging by ports and its impact on engine efficiency create the need to understand and to model it as realistically as possible. However, there are few empirical scavenging models and these are highly specialized. In a design optimization process, they appear very restricted and their field of use is limited. This paper presents a comparison of two methods to establish and reduce a model of the scavenging process in 2-stroke diesel engines. To solve the lack of scavenging models, a CFD model has been developed and is used as the referent case. However, its large size requires a reduction. Two techniques have been tested depending on their fields of application: The NTF method and neural networks. They both appear highly appropriate drastically reducing the model’s size (over 90% reduction) with a low relative error rate (under 10%). Furthermore, each method produces a reduced model which can be used in distinct specialized fields of application: the distribution of a quantity (mass fraction for example) in the cylinder at each time step (pseudo-dynamic model) or the qualification of scavenging at the end of the process (pseudo-static model).

Keywords: Diesel engine, Design optimization, Model reduction, Neural network, NTF algorithm, Scavenging.

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Authors: Min Goo Lee, Yong Kuk Park, Kyung Kwon Jung, Jun Jae Yoo

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This paper describes the smart energy monitoring system with a wireless sensor network for monitoring of electrical usage in smart house. Proposed system is composed of wireless plugs and energy control wallpad server. The wireless plug integrates an AC power socket, a relay to switch the socket ON/OFF, a Hall effect sensor to sense current of load appliance and a Kmote. The Kmote is a wireless communication interface based on TinyOS. We evaluated wireless plug in a laboratory, analyzed and presented energy consumption data from electrical appliances for 3 months in home.

Keywords: smart house, energy monitoring, wireless plug, wireless sensor network, current consumption.

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Authors: Anurag Sharma, Christian W. Omlin

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Self-organizing map (SOM) is a well known data reduction technique used in data mining. It can reveal structure in data sets through data visualization that is otherwise hard to detect from raw data alone. However, interpretation through visual inspection is prone to errors and can be very tedious. There are several techniques for the automatic detection of clusters of code vectors found by SOM, but they generally do not take into account the distribution of code vectors; this may lead to unsatisfactory clustering and poor definition of cluster boundaries, particularly where the density of data points is low. In this paper, we propose the use of an adaptive heuristic particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for finding cluster boundaries directly from the code vectors obtained from SOM. The application of our method to several standard data sets demonstrates its feasibility. PSO algorithm utilizes a so-called U-matrix of SOM to determine cluster boundaries; the results of this novel automatic method compare very favorably to boundary detection through traditional algorithms namely k-means and hierarchical based approach which are normally used to interpret the output of SOM.

Keywords: cluster boundaries, clustering, code vectors, data mining, particle swarm optimization, self-organizing maps, U-matrix.

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Authors: F. Behrouzi, A. Maimun, M. Nakisa

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The growth of population, rising fossil fuel prices (limited and decreasing day by day), pollution problem due to use of fossil fuels and increasing electrical demand are important factors that encourage the use of green and renewable energy technologies. Among the different renewable energy technologies, hydro power generation (large and small scale) is the prime choice in terms of contribution to the world's electricity generation by using water current turbines. Currently, researchers mainly focused on design and development of different kind of turbines to capture hydropower to generate electricity as clean and reliable energy. This paper is a review of the status of research on water current turbines carried out to generate electricity from hydrokinetic energy especially in places where there is no electricity, but there is access to flowing water.

Keywords: Turbines, Renewable Energy, Hydropower.

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Authors: Ravinder Kataria, Jatinder Kumar, B. S. Pabla

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Ultrasonic machining is one of the most widely used non-traditional machining processes for machining of materials that are relatively brittle, hard, and fragile such as advanced ceramics, refractories, crystals, quartz etc. Present article has been targeted at investigating the impact of different experimental conditions (power rating, cobalt content, tool material, thickness of work piece, tool geometry, and abrasive grit size) on over cut in ultrasonic drilling of WC-Co composite material. Taguchi’s L-36 orthogonal array has been employed for conducting the experiments. Significant factors have been identified using analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. The experimental results revealed that abrasive grit size and tool material are most significant factors for over cut.

Keywords: ANOVA, Abrasive grit size, Taguchi, WC-Co, ultrasonic machining.

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Authors: Y. Li, K. Buddharaju, N. Singh, G. Q. Lo, S. J. Lee

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Silicon nanowire (SiNW) based thermoelectric device (TED) has potential applications in areas such as chip level cooling/ energy harvesting. It is a great challenge however, to assemble an efficient device with these SiNW. The presence of parasitic in the form of interfacial electrical resistance will have a significant impact on the performance of the TED. In this work, we explore the effect of the electrical contact resistance on the performance of a TED. Numerical simulations are performed on SiNW to investigate such effects on its cooling performance. Intrinsically, SiNW individually without the unwanted parasitic effect has excellent cooling power density. However, the cooling effect is undermined with the contribution of the electrical contact resistance.

Keywords: Thermoelectric, silicon, nanowire, electrical contact resistance, parasitics.

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Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali

Abstract:

Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.

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Authors: Chun-Yao Lee, Siang-Ren Wang

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to improve electromagnetic characteristics on grounding grid by applying the conductive concrete. The conductive concrete in this study is under an extra high voltage (EHV, 345kV) system located in a high-tech industrial park or science park. Instead of surrounding soil of grounding grid, the application of conductive concrete can reduce equipment damage and body damage caused by switching surges. The focus of the two cases on the EHV distribution system in a high-tech industrial park is presented to analyze four soil material styles. By comparing several soil material styles, the study results have shown that the conductive concrete can effectively reduce the negative damages caused by electromagnetic transient. The adoption of the style of grounding grid located 1.0 (m) underground and conductive concrete located from the ground surface to 1.25 (m) underground can obviously improve the electromagnetic characteristics so as to advance protective efficiency.

Keywords: Switching surges, grounding gird, electromagnetic transient, conductive concrete.

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Authors: Dirk Hegemann, Martin Amberg

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Sputter deposition processes, especially for sputtering from metal targets, are well investigated. For practical reasons, i.e. for industrial processes, energetic considerations for sputter deposition are useful in order to optimize the sputtering process. In particular, for substrates at floating conditions it is required to obtain energetic conditions during film growth that enables sufficient dense metal films of good quality. The influence of ion energies, energy density and momentum transfer is thus examined both for sputtering at the target as well as during film growth. Different regimes dominated by ion energy, energy density and momentum transfer were identified by using different plasma sources and by varying power input, pressure and bias voltage.

Keywords: Energy density, film growth, momentum transfer, sputtering.

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Authors: Mahmoud Elmezain, Samar El-shinawy

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Many approaches to pattern recognition are founded on probability theory, and can be broadly characterized as either generative or discriminative according to whether or not the distribution of the image features. Generative and discriminative models have very different characteristics, as well as complementary strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we study these models to recognize the patterns of alphabet characters (A-Z) and numbers (0-9). To handle isolated pattern, generative model as Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and discriminative models like Conditional Random Field (CRF), Hidden Conditional Random Field (HCRF) and Latent-Dynamic Conditional Random Field (LDCRF) with different number of window size are applied on extracted pattern features. The gesture recognition rate is improved initially as the window size increase, but degrades as window size increase further. Experimental results show that the LDCRF is the best in terms of results than CRF, HCRF and HMM at window size equal 4. Additionally, our results show that; an overall recognition rates are 91.52%, 95.28%, 96.94% and 98.05% for CRF, HCRF, HMM and LDCRF respectively.

Keywords: Statistical Pattern Recognition, Generative Model, Discriminative Model, Human Computer Interaction.

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Authors: Heung Sun Yoon, Jong Tae Kim

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an activity diagram model for double-loop control self-adaptive braking system. Since activity diagram helps to improve visibility of self-adaption. We can easily find where improvement is needed on double-loop control. Double-loop control is adopted since the design conditions and actual conditions can be different. The system is reconfigured in runtime by using double-loop control. We simulated to verify and validate our model by using MATLAB. We compared single-loop control model with double-loop control model. Simulation results show that double-loop control provides more consistent brake power control than single-loop control.

Keywords: Activity diagram, automotive, braking system, double-loop, Self-adaptive, UML, vehicle.

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Authors: A. Brinda Lakshmi, J. Lakshmi Priya

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Cantaloupes (muskmelon and watermelon) contain biologically active molecules such as carotenoids which are natural pigments used as food colorants and afford health benefits. ß-carotene is the major source of carotenoids present in muskmelon and watermelon shell. Carotenoids were extracted using Microwave assisted extraction (MAE) and Ultrasound assisted extraction (UAE) utilising organic lipophilic solvents such as acetone, methanol, and hexane. Extraction conditions feed-solvent ratio, microwave power, ultrasound frequency, temperature and particle size were varied and optimized. It was found that the yield of carotenoids was higher using UAE than MAE, and muskmelon had the highest yield of carotenoids when was ethanol used as a solvent for 0.5 mm particle size.

Keywords: Carotenoids, extraction, muskmelon shell, watermelon shell.

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Authors: Young-Kwan Choi

Abstract:

In development of floating photovoltaic generation system, finding a suitable place of installation is as important as development of economically feasible and stable structure. Especially since floating photovoltaic system has its facility floating on water surface, it is extremely important to review the effects of weather conditions such as wind, water flow and floating matters, various factors (such as fogs) that can reduce generation efficiency, possibility of connection with power system, and legal restrictions. The method of investigating suitable area and resource for development of tracking-type floating photovoltaic generation system was proposed in this paper, which can be used for development of floating and ocean photovoltaic system in the future.

Keywords: Floating PV system, On-site Survey, Resources Survey of Photovoltaic, Tracking-type Floating PV.

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Authors: Moumita Palchaudhuri, Sujata Biswas

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Drought is universally acknowledged as a phenomenon associated with scarcity of water. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) expresses the actual rainfall as standardized departure from rainfall probability distribution function. In this study severity and spatial pattern of meteorological drought was analyzed in the Puruliya District, West Bengal, India using multi-temporal SPI. Daily gridded data for the period 1971-2005 from 4 rainfall stations surrounding the study area were collected from IMD, Pune, and used in the analysis. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to generate drought severity maps for the different time scales and months of the year. Temporal SPI graphs show that the maximum SPI value (extreme drought) occurs in station 3 in the year 1993. Mild and moderate droughts occur in the central portion of the study area. Severe and extreme droughts were mostly found in the northeast, northwest and the southwest part of the region.

Keywords: Standardized Precipitation Index, Meteorological Drought, Geographical Information System, Drought severity.

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Authors: Vishnu Pratap Singh Kirar

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Memristor is also known as the fourth fundamental passive circuit element. When current flows in one direction through the device, the electrical resistance increases and when current flows in the opposite direction, the resistance decreases. When the current is stopped, the component retains the last resistance that it had, and when the flow of charge starts again, the resistance of the circuit will be what it was when it was last active. It behaves as a nonlinear resistor with memory. Recently memristors have generated wide research interest and have found many applications. In this paper we survey the various applications of memristors which include non volatile memory, nanoelectronic memories, computer logic, neuromorphic computer architectures low power remote sensing applications, crossbar latches as transistor replacements, analog computations and switches.

Keywords: Memristor, non-volatile memory, arithmatic operation, programmable resistor.

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Authors: Sarah Abdourraziq, Rachid El Bachtiri

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The solar power source for pumping water is one of the most promising areas in photovoltaic applications. The implementation of these systems allows to protect the environment and reduce the CO₂ gas emission compared to systems trained by diesel generators. This paper presents a comparative study between the photovoltaic pumping system driven by DC motor, and AC motor to define the optimum design of this application. The studied system consists of PV array, DC-DC Boost Converter, inverter, motor-pump set and storage tank. The comparison was carried out to define the characteristics and the performance of each system. Each subsystem is modeled in order to simulate the whole system in MATLAB/ Simulink. The results show the efficiency of the proposed technique.

Keywords: Photovoltaic water pumping system, DC motor-pump, AC motor-pump, DC-DC boost converter.

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Authors: Ambuj Kumar, Sunil Kumar Singh, Shrikant Singh

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Sweep frequency response analysis has been turning out a powerful tool for investigation of mechanical as well as electrical integration of transformers. In this paper various aspect of practical application of SFRA has been studied. Open circuit and short circuit measurement were done on different phases of high voltage and low voltage winding. A case study was presented for the transformer of rating 31.5 MVA for various frequency ranges. A clear picture was presented for sub- frequency ranges for HV as well as LV winding. The main motive of work is to investigate high voltage short circuit response. The theoretical concept about SFRA responses is validated with expert system software results.

Keywords: Frequency deviation, OCT & SCT, SFRA, Transformer winding.

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Authors: Morakot Worachairungreung

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The objectives of the research are to study patterns of fire location distribution and develop techniques of Geographic Information System application in fire risk assessment for fire planning and management. Fire risk assessment was based on two factors: the vulnerability factor such as building material types, building height, building density and capacity for mitigation factor such as accessibility by road, distance to fire station, distance to hydrants and it was obtained from four groups of stakeholders including firemen, city planners, local government officers and local residents. Factors obtained from all stakeholders were converted into Raster data of GIS and then were superimposed on the data in order to prepare fire risk map of the area showing level of fire risk ranging from high to low. The level of fire risk was obtained from weighted mean of each factor based on the stakeholders. Weighted mean for each factor was obtained by Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

Keywords: Fire Risk Assessment, Geographic Information System: GIS, Raster Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

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Authors: S. H. Kazmi, T. Ahmed, K. Javed, A. Ghani

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In this paper static scheme of under-frequency based load shedding is considered for chemical and petrochemical industries with islanded distribution networks relying heavily on the primary commodity to ensure minimum production loss, plant downtime or critical equipment shutdown. A simplistic methodology is proposed for in-house implementation of this scheme using underfrequency relays and a step by step guide is provided including the techniques to calculate maximum percentage overloads, frequency decay rates, time based frequency response and frequency based time response of the system. Case study of FFL electrical system is utilized, presenting the actual system parameters and employed load shedding settings following the similar series of steps. The arbitrary settings are then verified for worst overload conditions (loss of a generation source in this case) and comprehensive system response is then investigated.

Keywords: Islanding, under-frequency load shedding, frequency rate of change, static UFLS.

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Authors: T. Prommi, P. Thamsenanupap

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The influence of physicochemical water quality parameters on the abundance and diversity of caddisfly larvae was studied in seven sampling stations in Mae Tao and Mae Ku watersheds, Mae Sot District, Tak Province, northern Thailand. The streams: MK2 and MK8 as reference site, and impacted streams (MT1-MT5) were sampled bi-monthly during July 2011 to May 2012. A total of 4,584 individual of caddisfly larvae belonging to 10 family and 17 genera were found. The larvae of family Hydropsychidae were the most abundance, followed by Philopotamidae, Odontoceridae, and Leptoceridae, respectively. The genus Cheumatopsyche, Hydropsyche, and Chimarra were the most abundance genera in this study. Results of CCA ordination showed the total dissolved solids, sulfate, water temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH were the most important physicochemical factors to affect distribution of caddisflies communities. Changes in the caddisfly fauna may indicate changes in physicochemical factors owing to agricultural pollution, urbanization, or other human activities. Results revealed that the order Trichoptera, identified to species or genus, can be potentially used to assess environmental water quality status in freshwater ecosystems.

Keywords: Caddisfly larvae, environmental variables, diversity, streams.

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Authors: Pankaj K. Gupta, Krishnan V. Pagalthivarthi

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The present work compares the performance of three turbulence modeling approach (based on the two-equation k -ε model) in predicting erosive wear in multi-size dense slurry flow through rotating channel. All three turbulence models include rotation modification to the production term in the turbulent kineticenergy equation. The two-phase flow field obtained numerically using Galerkin finite element methodology relates the local flow velocity and concentration to the wear rate via a suitable wear model. The wear models for both sliding wear and impact wear mechanisms account for the particle size dependence. Results of predicted wear rates using the three turbulence models are compared for a large number of cases spanning such operating parameters as rotation rate, solids concentration, flow rate, particle size distribution and so forth. The root-mean-square error between FE-generated data and the correlation between maximum wear rate and the operating parameters is found less than 2.5% for all the three models.

Keywords: Rotating channel, maximum wear rate, multi-sizeparticulate flow, k −ε turbulence models.

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Authors: Samee Ullah Khan, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fine-grained data replication over the Internet allows duplication of frequently accessed data objects, as opposed to entire sites, to certain locations so as to improve the performance of largescale content distribution systems. In a distributed system, agents representing their sites try to maximize their own benefit since they are driven by different goals such as to minimize their communication costs, latency, etc. In this paper, we will use game theoretical techniques and in particular auctions to identify a bidding mechanism that encapsulates the selfishness of the agents, while having a controlling hand over them. In essence, the proposed game theory based mechanism is the study of what happens when independent agents act selfishly and how to control them to maximize the overall performance. A bidding mechanism asks how one can design systems so that agents- selfish behavior results in the desired system-wide goals. Experimental results reveal that this mechanism provides excellent solution quality, while maintaining fast execution time. The comparisons are recorded against some well known techniques such as greedy, branch and bound, game theoretical auctions and genetic algorithms.

Keywords: Internet, data content replication, static allocation, mechanism design, equilibrium.

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Authors: Toshinori Nawata

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In this paper a nonlinear feedback control called augmented automatic choosing control (AACC) for a class of nonlinear systems with constrained input is presented. When designed the control, a constant term which arises from linearization of a given nonlinear system is treated as a coefficient of a stable zero dynamics. Parameters of the control are suboptimally selected by maximizing the stable region in the sense of Lyapunov with the aid of a genetic algorithm. This approach is applied to a field excitation control problem of power system to demonstrate the splendidness of the AACC. Simulation results show that the new controller can improve performance remarkably well.

Keywords: Augmented automatic choosing control, nonlinear control, genetic algorithm, zero dynamics.

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

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This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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