Search results for: intrinsic incubation period

Authors: U.E.Mahrous, A. Abd El-Aziz, A.I.El-Shiekh, S.Z. EL-kholya

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Twenty four New Zealand white rabbits (12 does and 12 bucks) and twenty four Flanders (12 does and 12 bucks) rabbits, allotted into two feeding regime (6 for each breed, 3 males and 3 females) first one fed commercial ration and second one fed commercial diet plus sodium butyrate (300 g/ton). The obtained results showed that at end of 8th week experimental period New Zealand white rabbits were heavier body weight than Flanders rabbits (1934.55+39.05 vs. 1802.5+30.99 g); significantly high body weight gain during experimental period especially during 8th week (136.1+3.5 vs. 126.8+1.8 g/week); better feed conversion ratio during all weeks of experiment from first week (3.07+0.16 vs. 3.12+0.10) till the 8th week of experiment (5.54+0.16 vs. 5.76+0.07) with significantly high dressing percentages (0.54+0.01 vs. 0.52+0.01). Also all carcass cuts were significantly high in New Zealand white rabbits than Flanders. Females rabbits (at the same age) were lower body weight than males from start of experiment (941.1+39.8 vs.972.1+33.5 g) till the end of experiment (1833.64+37.69 vs. 1903.41+36.93 g); gained less during all weeks of experiment except during 8th week (132.1+2.3 vs. 130.9+3.4 g/week), with lower dressing percentage (0.52+0.01 vs. 0.53+0.01) and lighter carcass cuts than males, however, they had better feed conversion ratio during 1st week, 7th week and 8th week of experiment. Addition of 300g sodium butyrate/ton of rabbit increased the body weight of rabbits at the end of experimental period (1882.71+26.45 vs. 1851.5+49.82 g); improve body weight gain at 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th week of experiment and significantly improve feed conversion ratio during all weeks of the experiment from 1st week (2.85+0.07 vs. 3.30+0.15) till the 8th week of the experiment (5.51+0.12 vs. 5.77+0.12). Also the dressing percentage was higher in Sodium butyrate fed groups than control one (0.53+0.01 vs. 0.52+0.01) and the most important results of feeding sodium butyrate is the reducing of the mortality percentage in rabbits during 8 week experiment to zero percentage as compared with 16% in control group.

Keywords: rabbit, productive performance, carcass quality, sodium byturate

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Authors: Patchalaphon Seeladlao, Anocha Kimkong

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The aims of this study were to compare the differences of being good membership behavior among faculties and staffs of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University with different sex, age, income, education, marital status, and working period, and investigate the relationships between organizational commitment and being good membership behavior. The research methodology employed a questionnaire as a quantitative method. The respondents were 305 faculties and staffs of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. This research used Percentage, Mean, Standard Deviation, t-test, One-Way ANOVA Analysis of Variance, and Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient in data analysis. The results showed that organizational commitment among faculties and staffs of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University was at a high level. In addition, differences in sex, age, income, education, marital status, and working period revealed differences in being good membership behavior. The results also indicated that organizational commitment was significantly related to being good membership behavior.

Keywords: Being Good membership behavior, Organizational Commitment.

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Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

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The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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Authors: Laila Salah Seada, Ashraf Ibrahim, Fawaz Al Rashid, Ihab Abdo, Hassan Kasim, Waleed Al Mansi, Saud Al Shabli

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Background and Objectives: Colorectal carcinoma is increasing among both men and women worldwide. It has a multifactorial etiology including genetic factors, environmental factors and inflammatory conditions of the digestive tract. A clinicopathologic assessment of colorectal carcinoma in Hail region is done, considering any changing patterns in two 5-year periods from 2005-2009 (A) and from 2012 to 2017 (B). All data had been retrieved from histopathology files of King Khalid Hospital, Hail. Results: During period (A), 75 cases were diagnosed as colorectal carcinoma. Male patients comprised 56/75 (74.7%) of the study, with a mean age of 58.4 (36-97), while females were 19/75 (25.3%) with a mean age of 50.3(30-85) and the difference was significant (p = 0.05). M:F ratio was 2.9:1. Most common histological type was adenocarcioma in 68/75 (90.7%) patients mostly well differentiated in 44/68 (64.7%). Mucinous neoplasms comprised only 7/75 (9.3%) of cases and tended to have a higher stage (p = 0.04). During period (B), 115 cases were diagnosed with an increase of 53.3% in number of cases than period (A). Male to female ratio also decreased to 1.35:1, females being 44.83% more affected. Adenocarcinoma remained the prevalent type (93.9%), while mucinous type was still rare (5.2%). No distal metastases found at time of presentation. Localization of tumors was rectosigmoid in group (A) in 41.4%, which increased to 56.6% in group (B), with an increase of 15.2%. Iliocecal location also decreased from 8% to 3.5%, being 56.25% less. Other proximal areas of the colon were decreased by 25.75%, from 53.9% in group (A) to 40% in group (B). Conclusion: Colorectal carcinoma in Hail region has increased by 53.3% in the past 5 years, with more females being diagnosed. Localization has also shifted distally by 15.2%. These findings are different from Western world patterns which experienced a decrease in incidence and proximal shift of the colon cancer localization. This might be due to better diagnostic tools, population awareness of the disease, as well as changing of life style and/or food habits in the region.

Keywords: Colorectal cancer, Hail Region, changing pattern, distal shift.

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Authors: Hamdon A. Abdelrhman

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The purpose of the analysis is estimation of viability and profitability of kenaf plant farming in Kelantan State. The monetary information was gathered through interviewing kenaf growers as well group discussion. In addition, the production statistics were collected from Kenaf factory administrative group. The monetary data were analyzed using the Precision financial Calculator. For kenaf production per hectare three scenarios of productivity were adopted, they were 15, 12 and ten; the research results exposed that, when kenaf productivity was 15 ton and the agronomist received financial supports from kenaf administration, the margin profit reached up to 37% which is almost dual profitability that is expected without government support. The financial analysis explains that, the adopted scenarios of the productivity are feasible when Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) was used as financial indicator. Nonetheless, the kenaf productivity of 15 ton is the superlative viable among the others and payback period is 5 years which equals to middle period time to return the invested amount back. The study concluded that for the farmer to increase the productivity of kenaf per hectare the well farming practices as well as continuously farmers financial support are highly needed.

Keywords: Margin profit, farming practices, financial analysis, kenaf cultivation.

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Authors: Mohammed B. Abohedma, Milad M. Alshebani

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Recent trends in building constructions in Libya are more toward tall (high-rise) building projects. As a consequence, a better estimation of the lateral loading in the design process is becoming the focal of a safe and cost effective building industry. Byin- large, Libya is not considered a potential earthquake prone zone, making wind is the dominant design lateral loads. Current design practice in the country estimates wind speeds on a mere random bases by considering certain factor of safety to the chosen wind speed. Therefore, a need for a more accurate estimation of wind speeds in Libya was the motivation behind this study. Records of wind speed data were collected from 22 metrological stations in Libya, and were statistically analysed. The analysis of more than four decades of wind speed records suggests that the country can be divided into four zones of distinct wind speeds. A computer “survey" program was manipulated to draw design wind speeds contour map for the state of Libya. The paper presents the statistical analysis of Libya-s recorded wind speed data and proposes design wind speed values for a 50-year return period that covers the entire country.

Keywords: Ccontour map, return period, wind speed, and zone.

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Authors: Branislav V. Šojić, Ljiljana S. Petrović, Vladimir M. Tomović, Natalija R. Džinić, Anamarija I. Mandić, Snežana B. Škaljac, Marija R. Jokanović, Predrag M. Ikonić, Tatjana A. Tasić, Ivana J. Sedej

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The influence of ripening conditions (traditional and industrial) on oxidative and sensory stability of dry fermented sausage (Petrovská klobása), during 7 months of storage, was investigated. During the storage period the content of free fatty acids was significantly higher (P<0.05), while the content of malondialdehyde was significantly lower in the sausage subjected to traditional conditions of drying. At the end of the storage period, content of hexanal in the sausage subjected to traditional conditions of ripening (1.67μg/g) was significantly lower (P<0.05) in comparison with this content in the sausage subjected to industrial conditions of ripening (4.94µg/g). Traditional conditions of ripening at lower temperatures have led to better sensory properties of odor and taste of traditional dry fermented sausage, Petrovská klobása after 2 and 7 months of storage.

Keywords: Lipid oxidation, Petrovská klobása, sensory stability, storage time.

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Authors: Elnaz Lashgari, Emel Demircan

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Electromyography (EMG) is one of the most important interfaces between humans and robots for rehabilitation. Decoding this signal helps to recognize muscle activation and converts it into smooth motion for the robots. Detecting each muscle’s pattern during walking and running is vital for improving the quality of a patient’s life. In this study, EMG data from 10 muscles in 10 subjects at 4 different speeds were analyzed. EMG signals are nonlinear with high dimensionality. To deal with this challenge, we extracted some features in time-frequency domain and used manifold learning and Laplacian Eigenmaps algorithm to find the intrinsic features that represent data in low-dimensional space. We then used the Bayesian classifier to identify various patterns of EMG signals for different muscles across a range of running speeds. The best result for vastus medialis muscle corresponds to 97.87±0.69 for sensitivity and 88.37±0.79 for specificity with 97.07±0.29 accuracy using Bayesian classifier. The results of this study provide important insight into human movement and its application for robotics research.

Keywords: Electrocardiogram, manifold learning, Laplacian Eigenmaps, running pattern.

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Authors: S. Jahani, V. Choopankareh

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Many people lost their life caused by environmental pollution every year. The negative effects of environmental crises appear to be much higher in Asian countries. The most important environmental issue in the developing countries and especially in Tehran, to our best knowledge, is air pollution that has affected many aspects of life in society. Environmental topics related to technology’s development have been salient issues among the main concerns of designers. Green facades are the most considerable solutions which designers and architectures are focused on, all over the world. But there are lots of behavioral and psychological problems about this point. In this line, this excavation has tried to reveal the cultural and psychological influences of green façade in developing countries like Tehran. Green façades in developing countries are so useless, although they are so expensive. As a matter of fact, users consider green facade as a decorative item. This research is an attempt to recognize the reasons which show green façades as worthless element. Also, some solutions are presented to promote green façades in the developing countries as an intrinsic solution. There are so many environmental threats, especially about air pollution, for a city as Tehran, which might be solved by green facades.

Keywords: Air pollution, developing countries, effects, green facades.

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Authors: M. M. Mon, S. S. Maw, Z. K. Oo

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Antioxidant activities of ethanolic extracts of Ardisia japonica Blume., Ageartum conyzoides Linn., and Cocculus hirsutus Linn Diels. leaves was determined qualitatively and quantitatively in this research. 1, 1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) free radical solution was used to investigate free radical scavenging activity of these leaves extracts. Ascorbic acid (Vitamin C) was used as the standard. In the present investigation, it is found that all of these extracts have remarkable antioxidant activities. The EC50 values of these ethanolic extracts were 12.72 μg/ml for A. japonica, 15.19 μg/ml for A. conyzoides, 10.68 μg/ml for C. hirsutus respectively. Among these Myanmar medicinal plants, C. hirsutus showed higher antioxidant activities as well as free radical scavenging activity than black tea (Camellia sinensis), the famous antioxidant, and A. japonica and A. conyzoides showed a rather lower antioxidant activity than tea extracts. According to results from bioassay with carrot discs infected with Agrobacterium tumefaciens, all extracts showed anti-tumor activity after 3 weeks of incubation. No gall was detected in carrot disks treated with C. hirsutus and A. japonica extracts in the dose of 100ppm and in carrot discs treated with A. conyzoides extract in the dose of 1000 ppm. Therefore, the research clearly indicates that these weedy plants of dry farm land are exceptionally advantageous for human health.

Keywords: Antioxidant, Anti-tumor activity, Carrot-discbioassay, DPPH

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Authors: Slavka Zeković

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A preliminary evaluation of the urban land system is presented in the article together with the instruments of land policy in Serbia. The main reason for the analysis is demand for definition of reform framework for urban land management in Serbia in the period of transition towards market-led system. It is concluded that due to the limitations of the current regulation it will be impossible in the future to apply market principles in the urban land policy (supply and demand of land, land capitalization, investment efficiency, et al.). Based on the estimation that the urban land system and land policy are key factors of competitiveness between regions and towns in Serbia, it is necessary to initiate changes in this field. There are indicated on an option of privatization of urban public land and possible establishment of leasehold land. A comparative analysis of the possibilities of the reform urban land system in Serbia has been carried out in relation to two approaches of market systems: (a) with dominant private ownership of urban land (neo/liberal approach) and (b) with dominant public ownership of urban land (system of leasehold)whose findings can be a basis for further study of the new system in Serbia.. The attanied results are part of studies matter for the making of Strategy of territorial development of Serbia.

Keywords: Urban Land System, Urban Land Management, Instruments of Land Policy, Evaluation, Market.

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Authors: P. Vijaya Laxmi, V. Goswami, V. Suchitra

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This paper presents a finite buffer renewal input single working vacation and vacation interruption queue with state dependent services and state dependent vacations, which has a wide range of applications in several areas including manufacturing, wireless communication systems. Service times during busy period, vacation period and vacation times are exponentially distributed and are state dependent. As a result of the finite waiting space, state dependent services and state dependent vacation policies, the analysis of these queueing models needs special attention. We provide a recursive method using the supplementary variable technique to compute the stationary queue length distributions at pre-arrival and arbitrary epochs. An efficient computational algorithm of the model is presented which is fast and accurate and easy to implement. Various performance measures have been discussed. Finally, some special cases and numerical results have been depicted in the form of tables and graphs. 

Keywords: State Dependent Service, Vacation Interruption, Supplementary Variable, Single Working Vacation, Blocking Probability.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouri, Majid Bayatian

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Analysis of fire data is a way for the implementation of any plan to improve the level of safety in cities. Such an analysis is able to reveal signs of changes in a given period and can be used as a measure of safety. The information of about 66,341 fires (from 2002 to 2012) released by Tehran Safety Services and Fire-Fighting Organization and data on the population and the number of households provided by Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Yearbook of Iran were extracted. Using the data, the fire changes, the rate of injuries, and mortality rate were determined and analyzed. The rate of injuries and mortality rate of fires per one million population of Tehran were 59.58% and 86.12%, respectively. During the study period, the number of fires and fire stations increased by 104.38% and 102.63%, respectively. Most fires (9.21%) happened in the 4th District of Tehran. The results showed that the recorded fire data have not been systematically planned for fire prevention since one of the ways to reduce injuries caused by fires is to develop a systematic plan for necessary actions in emergency situations. To determine a reliable source for fire prevention, the stages, definitions of working processes and the cause and effect chains should be considered. Therefore, a comprehensive statistical system should be developed for reported and recorded fire data.

Keywords: Fire statistics, fire analysis, accident prevention, Tehran.

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Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta

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Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure that attains optimality in two steps with demand information availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy expected value, Fuzzy random demand, Hybrid uncertainty, Optimal order quantity, Single-period inventory

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Authors: Syed Javed Arif, Mohd Ayyub Khan, Saleem Anwar Khan

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In this paper, a simple method is presented for measurement of power frequency deviations. A phase locked loop (PLL) is used to multiply the signal under test by a factor of 100. The number of pulses in this pulse train signal is counted over a stable known period, using decade driving assemblies (DDAs) and flip-flops. These signals are combined using logic gates and then passed through decade counters to give a unique combination of pulses or levels, which are further encoded. These pulses are equally suitable for both control applications and display units. The experimental circuit developed gives a resolution of 1 Hz within the measurement period of 20 ms. The proposed circuit is also simulated in Verilog Hardware Description Language (VHDL) and implemented using Field Programing Gate Arrays (FPGAs). A Mixed signal Oscilloscope (MSO) is used to observe the results of FPGA implementation. These results are compared with the results of the proposed circuit of discrete components. The proposed system is useful for frequency deviation measurement and control in power systems.

Keywords: Frequency measurement, digital control, phase locked loop, encoding, Verilog HDL.

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Authors: Hilmi Yazici

Abstract:

The more homogenized population taken over by the Republic immediately after the Ottoman was being canalized towards the goal of national identity and the historical and cultural structure of the nation was being readdressed and redefined. Modernization and Westernization history of the new Turkey, which started with Ottoman reforms and took its final form with the Kemalist nation-state, politically resulted in transformation from a multinational empire to a “nation-state” and adopted reaching to the level of Western civilizations as a sociology ideal. This objective of change will be achieved, on the one hand, by finding the Turkish culture which was preserved only by the society and by instilling Western civilization to national culture, on the other hand.  In line with this, it is seen that in musical considerations while Turkish folk music was accepted and adopted as an indispensible part of Turkish identity, Turkish classical music was refused on the ground that it was not a part of Turkish identity. Again in this period, it is seen that with the notion of cultural reform, which is a part of “nation building”, the desire to create a national music to be performed with Western techniques brought along deliberate interventions to folk music.

Keywords: Folk song, Nationalism, National music, nation-state, Turkish music.

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Authors: Josiane R. Pires, Marco A. S. González, Bruna L. Brenner, Luciana S. Roos

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The concern with sustainability brought the need for optimization of the buildings to reduce consumption of natural resources. Almost 1/3 of energy demanded by Brazilian housings is used to provide thermal solutions. AEC sector may contribute applying bioclimatic strategies on building design. The aim of this research is to investigate the viability of applying some alternative solutions in residential buildings. The research was developed with computational simulation on single family social housing, examining envelope type, absorptance, and insolation. The analysis of the thermal performance applied both Brazilian standard NBR 15575 and degree-hour method, in the scenery of Porto Alegre, a southern Brazilian city. We used BIM modeling through Revit/Autodesk and used Energy Plus to thermal simulation. The payback of the investment was calculated comparing energy savings and building costs, in a period of 50 years. The results shown that with the increment of envelope’s insulation there is thermal comfort improvement and energy economy, with a pay-back period of 24 to 36 years, in some cases.

Keywords: Civil construction, design, thermal performance, energy, economic analysis.

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Authors: Muhammad Naeem, Abdus Salam, Muhammad Ashraf, Muhammad Imran, Mehtab Ahmad, Muhammad Jamshed Khan, Muhammad Mazhar Ayaz, Muzaffar Ali, Arshad Ali, Memoona Qayyum Abir Ishtiaq

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The present study was designed to demonstrate the seasonal variations in physico-chemical parameters of fish farm at Govt. Nursery Unit, Muzaffargarh, Department of Fisheries Govt. of Punjab, Pakistan for a period of eight months from January to August 2008. Water samples were collected on fifteen days basis and have been analyzed for estimation of Air temperature, Water temperature, Light penetration, pH, Total dissolved oxygen, Clouds, Carbonates, Bicarbonates, Total carbonates, Total dissolved solids, Chlorides, Calcium and Hardness. Seasonal fluctuations were observed in all the physico-chemical parameters of fish farm. The overall physicochemical parameters of fish pond water remained within the tolerable range throughout the study period.

Keywords: Freshwater, Fish farm, Water quality, Seasonal variation, Chemical factor

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Authors: A. Sharma, R. Tewari, S. K. Soni

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Biofuels production has come forth as a future technology to combat the problem of depleting fossil fuels. Bio-based ethanol production from enzymatic lignocellulosic biomass degradation serves an efficient method and catching the eye of scientific community. High cost of the enzyme is the major obstacle in preventing the commercialization of this process. Thus main objective of the present study was to optimize composition of medium components for enhancing cellulase production by newly isolated strain of Bacillus tequilensis. Nineteen factors were taken into account using statistical Plackett-Burman Design. The significant variables influencing the cellulose production were further employed in statistical Response Surface Methodology using Central Composite Design for maximizing cellulase production. The optimum medium composition for cellulase production was: peptone (4.94 g/L), ammonium chloride (4.99 g/L), yeast extract (2.00 g/L), Tween-20 (0.53 g/L), calcium chloride (0.20 g/L) and cobalt chloride (0.60 g/L) with pH 7, agitation speed 150 rpm and 72 h incubation at 37oC. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed high coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. Maximum cellulase productivity of 11.5 IU/ml was observed against the model predicted value of 13 IU/ml. This was found to be optimally active at 60oC and pH 5.5.

Keywords: Bacillus tequilensis, CMCase, Submerged Fermentation, Optimization, Plackett-Burman Design, Response Surface Methodology.

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Authors: Zhalmagambetov Yerlanbek, Assymova Dariya, Tashieva Saltanat, and Aliya Bolatkhan

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The relevance of the study of everyday life in Almaty and Kyzylorda are associated with the emergence of the modern trends in historiography and socializing areas of government reform. The relevance is due to the fact that in the early twentieth century Kyzylorda and Almaty began to develop as a city and this period has a special place in the life of the state. An interesting aspect of the everyday life of the inhabitants of the new city, which was built in the era of Stalin's Five-Year Plans, can be examined through the eyes of the Soviet people living in a specific environment, reflecting the life of the citizens. The study of industrialization of the Soviet Union and the attention paid to new developments in the first five years of everyday aspects as the impact of the modernization of the 1930s was one of the decisive factors in the lives of residents. Among these factors, we would like to highlight the medical field, which is the basis of all human life, specifically focusing on the state of medicine in Alma-Ata in the first 20-30-years of the twentieth century, and analyze the different aspects of human life, determining the quality of medical care to the population during this period.

Keywords: Alma Ata, capital, epidemic diseases, health care, Kyzylorda, the USSR, Vernyj.

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Authors: A.Chetaine, A. Benchrif, H. Amsil, V. Kuznetsov, Y. Shimazu

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The evaluation of unit cell neutronic parameters and lifetime for some innovant reactors without on sit-refuling will be held in this work. the behavior of some small and medium reactors without on site refueling with triso and cermet fuel. For the FBNR long life except we propose to change the enrichment of the Cermet MFE to 9%. For the AFPR reactor we can see that the use of the Cermet MFE can extend the life of this reactor but to maintain the same life period for AFPR-SC we most use burnup poison to have the same slope for Kinf (Burnup). PFPWR50 cell behaves almost in same way using both fuels Cermet and TRISO. So we can conclude that PFPWR50 reactor, with CERMET Fuel, is kept among the long cycle reactors and with the new configuration we avoid subcriticality at the beginning of cycle. The evaluation of unit cell neutronic parameters reveals a good agreement with the goal of BWR-PB concept. It is found out that the Triso fuel assembly lifetime can be extended for a reasonably long period without being refueled, approximately up to 48GWd/t burnup. Using coated particles fuels with the Cermet composition can be more extended the fuel assembly life time, approximately 52 GWd/t.

Keywords: Cermet., Trisot, without on site refueling.

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Authors: Mosaad Khadr, Gerd Morgenschweis, Andreas Schlenkhoff

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Drought is one of the most damaging climate-related hazards, it is generally considered as a prolonged absence of precipitation. This normal and recurring climate phenomenon had plagued civilization throughout history because of the negative impacts on economical, environmental and social sectors. Drought characteristics are thus recognized as important factors in water resources planning and management. The purpose of this study is to detect the changes in drought frequency, persistence and severity in the Ruhr river basin. The frequency of drought events was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Used data are daily precipitation records from seven meteorological stations covering the period 1961-2007. The main benefit of the application of this index is its versatility, only rainfall data is required to deliver five major dimensions of a drought : duration, intensity, severity, magnitude, and frequency. Furthermore, drought can be calculated in different time steps. In this study SPI was calculated for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. Several drought events were detected in the covered period, these events contain mild, moderate and severe droughts. Also positive and negative trends in the SPI values were observed.

Keywords: Drought, Germany, Precipitation, Ruhr River, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Trend Test.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

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In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

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Movable power sources of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC) are the important research done in the current fuel cells (FC) field. The PEMFC system control influences the cell performance greatly and it is a control system for industrial complex problems, due to the imprecision, uncertainty and partial truth and intrinsic nonlinear characteristics of PEMFCs. In this paper an adaptive PI control strategy using neural network adaptive Morlet wavelet for control is proposed. It is based on a single layer feed forward neural networks with hidden nodes of adaptive morlet wavelet functions controller and an infinite impulse response (IIR) recurrent structure. The IIR is combined by cascading to the network to provide double local structure resulting in improving speed of learning. The proposed method is applied to a typical 1 KW PEMFC system and the results show the proposed method has more accuracy against to MLP (Multi Layer Perceptron) method.

Keywords: Adaptive Control, Morlet Wavelets, PEMFC.

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Authors: Angela Unna Chukwu, Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin

Abstract:

We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter (allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz growth models over its source model.

Keywords: Height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz.

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Authors: Kanita Thanacharoenchanaphas, Orose Rugchati

Abstract:

This study assessed the effects of climate change on Thai soybeans under simulation situations. Our study is focused on temperature variability and effects on growth, yield, and genetic changes in 2 generations of Chiang Mai 60 cultivars. In the experiment, soybeans were exposed to 3 levels of air temperature for 8 h day-1 in an open top chamber for 2 cropping periods. Air temperature levels in each treatment were controlled at 30-33°C (± 2.3) for LT-treatment, 33-36°C ( ± 2.4) for AT-treatment, and 36-40 °C ( ± 3.2) for HT-treatment, respectively. Positive effects of high temperature became obvious at the maturing stage when yield significantly increased in both cropping periods. Results in growth indicated that shoot length at the pre-maturing stage (V3-R3) was more positively affected by high temperature than at the maturing stage. However, the positive effect on growth under high temperature was not found in the 2nd cropping period. Finally, genetic changes were examined in phenotype characteristics by the AFLPs technique. The results showed that the high temperature factor clearly caused genetic change in the soybeans and showed more alteration in the 2nd cropping period.

Keywords: simulation, air temperature, variability, Thai soybean, yield , genetic change

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Authors: Samra Bajwa, Muhammad W. Siddiqi

Abstract:

The study investigates the causal link between trade openness and economic growth for four South Asian countries for period 1972-1985 and 1986-2007 to examine the scenario before and after the implementation of SAARC. Panel cointegration and FMOLS techniques are employed for short run and long run estimates. In 1972-85 short run unidirectional causality from GDP to openness is found whereas, in 1986-2007 there exists bi-directional causality between GDP and openness. The long run elasticity magnitude between GDP and openness contains negative sign in 1972-85 which shows that there exists long run negative relationship. While in time period 1986-2007 the elasticity magnitude has positive sign that indicates positive causation between GDP and openness. So it can be concluded that after the implementation of SAARC overall situation of selected countries got better. Also long run coefficient of error term suggests that short term equilibrium adjustments are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium.

Keywords: Causality, Economic Growth, Panel Co-integration, SAARC, Trade Openness.

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Authors: Juan L. Acero, F. Javier Benitez, Francisco J. Real, Gloria Roldan, Francisco Casas

Abstract:

The bromination of five selected pharmaceuticals (metoprolol, naproxen, amoxicillin, hydrochlorotiazide and phenacetin) in ultrapure water and in three water matrices (a groundwater, a surface water from a public reservoir and a secondary effluent from a WWTP) was investigated. The apparent rate constants for the bromination reaction were determined as a function of the pH, and the sequence obtained for the reaction rate was amoxicillin > naproxen >> hydrochlorotiazide ≈ phenacetin ≈ metoprolol. The proposal of a kinetic mechanism, which specifies the dissociation of bromine and each pharmaceutical according to their pKa values and the pH allowed the determination of the intrinsic rate constants for every elementary reaction. The influence of the main operating conditions (pH, initial bromine dose, and the water matrix) on the degradation of pharmaceuticals was established. In addition, the presence of bromide in chlorination experiments was investigated. The presence of bromide in wastewaters and drinking waters in the range of 10 to several hundred μg L-1 accelerated slightly the oxidation of the selected pharmaceuticals during chorine disinfection.

Keywords: Pharmaceuticals, bromine, chlorine, apparent andintrinsic rate constants, water matrices, degradation rates

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Authors: E. Kouhgardi, S. Dashti, H. Fekrandish

Abstract:

This research has been conducted to study the method of culture and comparing growth and biomass of Gracilaria corticata cultured on rope and net for 50 days through two treatments (first treatment: culture of alga on net and the second treatment: culture of alga on rope and each treatment was repeated by four cases). During culture period, the water of aquariums was replaced once every two days for 40-50%. Also, 0.3-0.5 grams of urea fertilizer was added to the culture environment for fertilization. Moreover, some of the environmental factors such as pH, salinity and temperature of the environment were measured on a daily basis. During the culture period, extent of longitudinal growth of the species of both treatments was equal. The said length was reached from 8-10 cm to 10.5-13 cm accordingly. The resulted weight in repetitions of the first treatment was higher than that of the second treatment in such a way as in the first treatment, its weight reached from 10 grams to 21.119 grams and in the second treatment, its weight reached from 10 grams to 17.663 grams. On a whole, it may be stated that that kind of alga being studied has a considerable growth with respect to its volume. The results have revealed that the percentage of daily growth and wet weight at the end of the first treatment was higher than that of the second treatment and it was registered as 0.934, 6.072 and 811.432 in the first treatment and 0.797, 4.990 and 758.071 in the second treatment respectively. This difference is significant (P<0.05). Growth and biomass of G. corticata through culture on net was more emphasizing on numerous branches due to wider bed. Moreover, higher level of the species in this method was exposed to sunlight and this increased biosynthesis and eventually increases of growth and biomass.

Keywords: Red alga, growth, biomass, culture, net, rope.

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Authors: Lady Marianne E. Polinga, Candy C. Mercado, Camilo A. Polinga

Abstract:

This study was an investigation on the suitability of Lahar/HDPE composite as a primary material for low-cost smallscale biogas digesters. While sources of raw materials for biogas are abundant in the Philippines, cost of the technology has made the widespread utilization of this resource an indefinite proposition. Aside from capital economics, another problem arises with space requirements of current digester designs. These problems may be simultaneously addressed by fabricating digesters on a smaller, household scale to reach a wider market, and to use materials that may accommodate optimization of overall design and fabrication cost without sacrificing operational efficiency. This study involved actual fabrication of the Lahar/HDPE composite at varying composition and geometry, subsequent mechanical and thermal characterization, and implementation of Statistical Analysis to find intrinsic relationships between variables. From the results, Lahar/HDPE composite was found to be feasible for use as digester material from both mechanical and economic standpoints. 

Keywords: Biogas digester, Composite, High density polyethylene, Lahar.

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