Search results for: food chain model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1970

Search results for: food chain model

1670 State Feedback Speed Controller for Turbocharged Diesel Engine and Its Robustness

Authors: Dileep Malkhede, Bhartendu Seth

Abstract:

In this paper, the full state feedback controllers capable of regulating and tracking the speed trajectory are presented. A fourth order nonlinear mean value model of a 448 kW turbocharged diesel engine published earlier is used for the purpose. For designing controllers, the nonlinear model is linearized and represented in state-space form. Full state feedback controllers capable of meeting varying speed demands of drivers are presented. Main focus here is to investigate sensitivity of the controller to the perturbations in the parameters of the original nonlinear model. Suggested controller is shown to be highly insensitive to the parameter variations. This indicates that the controller is likely perform with same accuracy even after significant wear and tear of engine due to its use for years.

Keywords: Diesel engine model, Engine speed control, State feedback controller, Controller robustness.

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1669 Parametric Optimization of Hospital Design

Authors: M. K. Holst, P. H. Kirkegaard, L. D. Christoffersen

Abstract:

Present paper presents a parametric performancebased design model for optimizing hospital design. The design model operates with geometric input parameters defining the functional requirements of the hospital and input parameters in terms of performance objectives defining the design requirements and preferences of the hospital with respect to performances. The design model takes point of departure in the hospital functionalities as a set of defined parameters and rules describing the design requirements and preferences.

Keywords: Architectural Layout Design, Hospital Design, Parametric design, Performance-based models.

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1668 Effect of Chloroform on Aerobic Biodegradation of Organic Solvents in Pharmaceutical Wastewater

Authors: Balasubramanian P, Ligy Philip, S. Murty Bhallamudi

Abstract:

In this study, cometabolic biodegradation of chloroform was experimented with mixed cultures in the presence of various organic solvents like methanol, ethanol, isopropanol, acetone, acetonitrile and toluene as these are predominant discharges in pharmaceutical industries. Toluene and acetone showed higher specific chloroform degradation rate when compared to other compounds. Cometabolic degradation of chloroform was further confirmed by observation of free chloride ions in the medium. An extended Haldane model, incorporating the inhibition due to chloroform and the competitive inhibition between primary substrates, was developed to predict the biodegradation of primary substrates, cometabolic degradation of chloroform and the biomass growth. The proposed model is based on the use of biokinetic parameters obtained from single substrate degradation studies. The model was able to satisfactorily predict the experimental results of ternary and quaternary mixtures. The proposed model can be used for predicting the performance of bioreactors treating discharges from pharmaceutical industries.

Keywords: Chloroform, Cometabolic biodegradation, Competitive inhibition, Extended Haldane model, Pharmaceuticalindustry.

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1667 A Hybrid DEA Model for the Measurement of the Enviromental Performance

Authors: A. Hadi-Vencheh, N. Shayesteh Moghadam

Abstract:

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has gained great popularity in environmental performance measurement because it can provide a synthetic standardized environmental performance index when pollutants are suitably incorporated into the traditional DEA framework. Since some of the environmental performance indicators cannot be controlled by companies managers, it is necessary to develop the model in a way that it could be applied when discretionary and/or non-discretionary factors were involved. In this paper, we present a semi-radial DEA approach to measuring environmental performance, which consists of non-discretionary factors. The model, then, has been applied on a real case.

Keywords: Environmental performance, efficiency, non-discretionary variables, data envelopment analysis.

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1666 Basic Tendency Model in Complete Factor Synergetics of Complex Systems

Authors: Li Zong-Cheng

Abstract:

The deviation between the target state variable and the practical state variable should be used to form the state tending factor of complex systems, which can reflect the process for the complex system to tend rationalization. Relating to the system of basic equations of complete factor synergetics consisting of twenty nonlinear stochastic differential equations, the two new models are considered to set, which should be called respectively the rationalizing tendency model and the non- rationalizing tendency model. Therefore we can extend the theory of programming with the objective function & constraint condition suitable only for the realm of man-s activities into the new analysis with the tendency function & constraint condition suitable for all the field of complex system.

Keywords: complex system, complete factor synergetics, basicequation, rationalizing tendency model, non-rationalizing tendencymodel.

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1665 Simulation of Snow Covers Area by a Physical based Model

Authors: Hossein Zeinivand, Florimond De Smedt

Abstract:

Snow cover is an important phenomenon in hydrology, hence modeling the snow accumulation and melting is an important issue in places where snowmelt significantly contributes to runoff and has significant effect on water balance. The physics-based models are invariably distributed, with the basin disaggregated into zones or grid cells. Satellites images provide valuable data to verify the accuracy of spatially distributed model outputs. In this study a spatially distributed physically based model (WetSpa) was applied to predict snow cover and melting in the Latyan dam watershed in Iran. Snowmelt is simulated based on an energy balance approach. The model is applied and calibrated with one year of observed daily precipitation, air temperature, windspeed, and daily potential evaporation. The predicted snow-covered area is compared with remotely sensed images (MODIS). The results show that simulated snow cover area SCA has a good agreement with satellite image snow cover area SCA from MODIS images. The model performance is also tested by statistical and graphical comparison of simulated and measured discharges entering the Latyan dam reservoir.

Keywords: Physical based model, Satellite image, Snow covers.

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1664 A New Model of English-Vietnamese Bilingual Information Retrieval System

Authors: Chinh Trong Nguyen, Dang Tuan Nguyen

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new model of English- Vietnamese bilingual Information Retrieval system. Although there are so many CLIR systems had been researched and built, the accuracy of searching results in different languages that the CLIR system supports still need to improve, especially in finding bilingual documents. The problems identified in this paper are the limitation of machine translation-s result and the extra large collections of document to be found. So we try to establish a different model to overcome these problems.

Keywords: Bilingual Information Retrieval, Cross-lingual Information Retrieval, Bilingual Web sites.

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1663 Random Oracle Model of Information Hiding System

Authors: Nan Jiang, Jian Wang

Abstract:

Random Oracle Model (ROM) is an effective method for measuring the practical security of cryptograph. In this paper, we try to use it into information hiding system (IHS). Because IHS has its own properties, the ROM must be modified if it is used into IHS. Firstly, we fully discuss why and how to modify each part of ROM respectively. The main changes include: 1) Divide the attacks that IHS may be suffered into two phases and divide the attacks of each phase into several kinds. 2) Distinguish Oracles and Black-boxes clearly. 3) Define Oracle and four Black-boxes that IHS used. 4) Propose the formalized adversary model. And 5) Give the definition of judge. Secondly, based on ROM of IHS, the security against known original cover attack (KOCA-KOCA-security) is defined. Then, we give an actual information hiding scheme and prove that it is KOCA-KOCA-secure. Finally, we conclude the paper and propose the open problems of further research.

Keywords: Attack, Information Hiding, Provable Security, Random Oracle Model.

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1662 A Study on a Discrete Event Simulation Model for Availability Analysis of Weapon Systems

Authors: Hye Lyeong Kim, Sang Yeong Choi

Abstract:

This paper discusses a discrete event simulation model for the availability analysis of weapon systems. This model incorporates missions, operational tasks and system reliability structures to analyze the availability of a weapon system. The proposed simulation model consists of 5 modules: Simulation Engine, Maintenance Organizations, System, its Mission Profile and RBD which are based on missions and operational tasks. Simulation Engine executes three kinds of discrete events in chronological order. The events are mission events generated by Mission Profile, failure events generated by System, and maintenance events executed by Maintenance Organization. Finally, this paper shows the case study of a system's availability analysis and mission reliability using the simulation model.

Keywords: MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure), MTTR (Mean Time To Repair), Availability, Reliability, RBD (Reliability Block Diagram)

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1661 A Temporal Synchronization Model for Heterogeneous Data in Distributed Systems

Authors: Jorge Estudillo Ramirez, Saul E. Pomares Hernandez

Abstract:

Multimedia distributed systems deal with heterogeneous data, such as texts, images, graphics, video and audio. The specification of temporal relations among different data types and distributed sources is an open research area. This paper proposes a fully distributed synchronization model to be used in multimedia systems. One original aspect of the model is that it avoids the use of a common reference (e.g. wall clock and shared memory). To achieve this, all possible multimedia temporal relations are specified according to their causal dependencies.

Keywords: Multimedia, Distributed Systems, Partial Ordering, Temporal Synchronization

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1660 Numerical Simulation of the Liquid-Vapor Interface Evolution with Material Properties

Authors: Kimou Kouadio Prosper, Souleymane Oumtanaga, Tety Pierre, Adou Kablan Jérôme

Abstract:

A satured liquid is warmed until boiling in a parallelepipedic boiler. The heat is supplied in a liquid through the horizontal bottom of the boiler, the other walls being adiabatic. During the process of boiling, the liquid evaporates through its free surface by deforming it. This surface which subdivides the boiler into two regions occupied on both sides by the boiled liquid (broth) and its vapor which surmounts it. The broth occupying the region and its vapor the superior region. A two- fluids model is used to describe the dynamics of the broth, its vapor and their interface. In this model, the broth is treated as a monophasic fluid (homogeneous model) and form with its vapor adiphasic pseudo fluid (two-fluid model). Furthermore, the interface is treated as a zone of mixture characterized by superficial void fraction noted α* . The aim of this article is to describe the dynamics of the interface between the boiled fluid and its vapor within a boiler. The resolution of the problem allowed us to show the evolution of the broth and the level of the liquid.

Keywords: Two-fluid models, homogeneous model, interface, averaged equations, Jumps conditions, void fraction.

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1659 Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for Neural Multi-Delay Logarithmic Population Model

Authors: Zhouhong Li

Abstract:

In this paper, by applying Mawhin-s continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, we study the existence of almost periodic solutions for neural multi-delay logarithmic population model and obtain one sufficient condition for the existence of positive almost periodic solution for the above equation. An example is employed to illustrate our result.

Keywords: Almost periodic solution, Multi-delay, Logarithmic population model, Coincidence degree.

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1658 Optimization Approaches for a Complex Dairy Farm Simulation Model

Authors: Jagannath Aryal, Don Kulasiri, Dishi Liu

Abstract:

This paper describes the optimization of a complex dairy farm simulation model using two quite different methods of optimization, the Genetic algorithm (GA) and the Lipschitz Branch-and-Bound (LBB) algorithm. These techniques have been used to improve an agricultural system model developed by Dexcel Limited, New Zealand, which describes a detailed representation of pastoral dairying scenarios and contains an 8-dimensional parameter space. The model incorporates the sub-models of pasture growth and animal metabolism, which are themselves complex in many cases. Each evaluation of the objective function, a composite 'Farm Performance Index (FPI)', requires simulation of at least a one-year period of farm operation with a daily time-step, and is therefore computationally expensive. The problem of visualization of the objective function (response surface) in high-dimensional spaces is also considered in the context of the farm optimization problem. Adaptations of the sammon mapping and parallel coordinates visualization are described which help visualize some important properties of the model-s output topography. From this study, it is found that GA requires fewer function evaluations in optimization than the LBB algorithm.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Linux Cluster, LipschitzBranch-and-Bound, Optimization

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1657 MATLAB/SIMULINK Based Model of Single- Machine Infinite-Bus with TCSC for Stability Studies and Tuning Employing GA

Authors: Sidhartha Panda, Narayana Prasad Padhy

Abstract:

With constraints on data availability and for study of power system stability it is adequate to model the synchronous generator with field circuit and one equivalent damper on q-axis known as the model 1.1. This paper presents a systematic procedure for modelling and simulation of a single-machine infinite-bus power system installed with a thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC) where the synchronous generator is represented by model 1.1, so that impact of TCSC on power system stability can be more reasonably evaluated. The model of the example power system is developed using MATLAB/SIMULINK which can be can be used for teaching the power system stability phenomena, and also for research works especially to develop generator controllers using advanced technologies. Further, the parameters of the TCSC controller are optimized using genetic algorithm. The non-linear simulation results are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, MATLAB/SIMULINK, modelling and simulation, power system stability, single-machineinfinite-bus power system, thyristor controlled series compensator.

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1656 Individual Learning and Collaborative Knowledge Building with Shared Digital Artifacts

Authors: Joachim Kimmerle, Johannes Moskaliuk, Ulrike Cress

Abstract:

The development of Internet technology in recent years has led to a more active role of users in creating Web content. This has significant effects both on individual learning and collaborative knowledge building. This paper will present an integrative framework model to describe and explain learning and knowledge building with shared digital artifacts on the basis of Luhmann-s systems theory and Piaget-s model of equilibration. In this model, knowledge progress is based on cognitive conflicts resulting from incongruities between an individual-s prior knowledge and the information which is contained in a digital artifact. Empirical support for the model will be provided by 1) applying it descriptively to texts from Wikipedia, 2) examining knowledge-building processes using a social network analysis, and 3) presenting a survey of a series of experimental laboratory studies.

Keywords: Individual learning, collaborative knowledge building, systems theory, equilibration.

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1655 Ensembling Adaptively Constructed Polynomial Regression Models

Authors: Gints Jekabsons

Abstract:

The approach of subset selection in polynomial regression model building assumes that the chosen fixed full set of predefined basis functions contains a subset that is sufficient to describe the target relation sufficiently well. However, in most cases the necessary set of basis functions is not known and needs to be guessed – a potentially non-trivial (and long) trial and error process. In our research we consider a potentially more efficient approach – Adaptive Basis Function Construction (ABFC). It lets the model building method itself construct the basis functions necessary for creating a model of arbitrary complexity with adequate predictive performance. However, there are two issues that to some extent plague the methods of both the subset selection and the ABFC, especially when working with relatively small data samples: the selection bias and the selection instability. We try to correct these issues by model post-evaluation using Cross-Validation and model ensembling. To evaluate the proposed method, we empirically compare it to ABFC methods without ensembling, to a widely used method of subset selection, as well as to some other well-known regression modeling methods, using publicly available data sets.

Keywords: Basis function construction, heuristic search, modelensembles, polynomial regression.

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1654 An Intelligent Optimization Model for Multi-objective Order Allocation Planning

Authors: W. K. Wong, Z. X. Guo, P.Y. Mok

Abstract:

This paper presents a multi-objective order allocation planning problem with the consideration of various real-world production features. A novel hybrid intelligent optimization model, integrating a multi-objective memetic optimization process, a Monte Carlo simulation technique and a heuristic pruning technique, is proposed to handle this problem. Experiments based on industrial data are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results show that (1) the proposed model can effectively solve the investigated problem by providing effective production decision-making solutions, which outperformsan NSGA-II-based optimization process and an industrial method.

Keywords: Multi-objective order allocation planning, Pareto optimization, Memetic algorithm, Mento Carlo simulation

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1653 Simulation of Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti using Climate Dependent Model

Authors: Nuraini Yusoff, Harun Budin, Salemah Ismail

Abstract:

A climate dependent model is proposed to simulate the population of Aedes aegypti mosquito. In developing the model, average temperature of Shah Alam, Malaysia was used to determine the development rate of each stage of the life cycle of mosquito. Rainfall dependent function was proposed to simulate the hatching rate of the eggs under several assumptions. The proposed transition matrix was obtained and used to simulate the population of eggs, larvae, pupae and adults mosquito. It was found that the peak of mosquito abundance comes during a relatively dry period following a heavy rainfall. In addition, lag time between the peaks of mosquito abundance and dengue fever cases in Shah Alam was estimated.

Keywords: simulation, Aedes aegypti, Lefkovitch matrix, rainfall dependent model, Shah Alam

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1652 A Retrospective Analysis of a Professional Learning Community: How Teachers- Capacities Shaped It

Authors: S.Pancucci

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to describe the process of setting up a learning community within an elementary school in Ontario, Canada. The description is provided through reflection and examination of field notes taken during the yearlong training and implementation process. Specifically the impact of teachers- capacity on the creation of a learning community was of interest. This paper is intended to inform and add to the debate around the tensions that exist in implementing a bottom-up professional development model like the learning community in a top-down organizational structure. My reflections of the process illustrate that implementation of the learning community professional development model may be difficult and yet transformative in the professional lives of the teachers, students, and administration involved in the change process. I conclude by suggesting the need for a new model of professional development that requires a transformative shift in power dynamics and a shift in the view of what constitutes effective professional learning.

Keywords: Learning community model, professionaldevelopment, teacher capacity, teacher leadership.

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1651 A Fuzzy Logic Based Model to Predict Surface Roughness of A Machined Surface in Glass Milling Operation Using CBN Grinding Tool

Authors: Ahmed A. D. Sarhan, M. Sayuti, M. Hamdi

Abstract:

Nowadays, the demand for high product quality focuses extensive attention to the quality of machined surface. The (CNC) milling machine facilities provides a wide variety of parameters set-up, making the machining process on the glass excellent in manufacturing complicated special products compared to other machining processes. However, the application of grinding process on the CNC milling machine could be an ideal solution to improve the product quality, but adopting the right machining parameters is required. In glass milling operation, several machining parameters are considered to be significant in affecting surface roughness. These parameters include the lubrication pressure, spindle speed, feed rate and depth of cut. In this research work, a fuzzy logic model is offered to predict the surface roughness of a machined surface in glass milling operation using CBN grinding tool. Four membership functions are allocated to be connected with each input of the model. The predicted results achieved via fuzzy logic model are compared to the experimental result. The result demonstrated settlement between the fuzzy model and experimental results with the 93.103% accuracy.

Keywords: CNC-machine, Glass milling, Grinding, Surface roughness, Cutting force, Fuzzy logic model.

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1650 Speed Control of a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine (PMSM) Fed by an Inverter Voltage Fuzzy Control Approach

Authors: Jamel Khedri, Mohamed Chaabane, Mansour Souissi, Driss Mehdi

Abstract:

This paper deals with the synthesis of fuzzy controller applied to a permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM) with a guaranteed H∞ performance. To design this fuzzy controller, nonlinear model of the PMSM is approximated by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model (T-S fuzzy model), then the so-called parallel distributed compensation (PDC) is employed. Next, we derive the property of the H∞ norm. The latter is cast in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMI-s) while minimizing the H∞ norm of the transfer function between the disturbance and the error ( ) ev T . The experimental and simulations results were conducted on a permanent magnet synchronous machine to illustrate the effects of the fuzzy modelling and the controller design via the PDC.

Keywords: Feedback controller, Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI), PMSM, H∞ performance.

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1649 The Sizes of Large Hierarchical Long-Range Percolation Clusters

Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

We study a long-range percolation model in the hierarchical lattice ΩN of order N where probability of connection between two nodes separated by distance k is of the form min{αβ−k, 1}, α ≥ 0 and β > 0. The parameter α is the percolation parameter, while β describes the long-range nature of the model. The ΩN is an example of so called ultrametric space, which has remarkable qualitative difference between Euclidean-type lattices. In this paper, we characterize the sizes of large clusters for this model along the line of some prior work. The proof involves a stationary embedding of ΩN into Z. The phase diagram of this long-range percolation is well understood.

Keywords: percolation, component, hierarchical lattice, phase transition.

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1648 The Fundamental Reliance of Iterative Learning Control on Stability Robustness

Authors: Richard W. Longman

Abstract:

Iterative learning control aims to achieve zero tracking error of a specific command. This is accomplished by iteratively adjusting the command given to a feedback control system, based on the tracking error observed in the previous iteration. One would like the iterations to converge to zero tracking error in spite of any error present in the model used to design the learning law. First, this need for stability robustness is discussed, and then the need for robustness of the property that the transients are well behaved. Methods of producing the needed robustness to parameter variations and to singular perturbations are presented. Then a method involving reverse time runs is given that lets the world behavior produce the ILC gains in such a way as to eliminate the need for a mathematical model. Since the real world is producing the gains, there is no issue of model error. Provided the world behaves linearly, the approach gives an ILC law with both stability robustness and good transient robustness, without the need to generate a model.

Keywords: Iterative learning control, stability robustness, monotonic convergence.

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1647 Numerical Simulation of a Single Air Bubble Rising in Water with Various Models of Surface Tension Force

Authors: Afshin Ahmadi Nadooshan, Ebrahim Shirani

Abstract:

Different numerical methods are employed and developed for simulating interfacial flows. A large range of applications belong to this group, e.g. two-phase flows of air bubbles in water or water drops in air. In such problems surface tension effects often play a dominant role. In this paper, various models of surface tension force for interfacial flows, the CSF, CSS, PCIL and SGIP models have been applied to simulate the motion of small air bubbles in water and the results were compared and reviewed. It has been pointed out that by using SGIP or PCIL models, we are able to simulate bubble rise and obtain results in close agreement with the experimental data.

Keywords: Volume-of-Fluid, Bubble Rising, SGIP model, CSS model, CSF model, PCIL model, interface, surface tension force.

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1646 AGENTMAP: A Conceptual Meta-Model of Interacting Simulations

Authors: Thomas M. Prinz Wilhelm R. Rossak, Kai Gebhardt

Abstract:

A straightforward and intuitive combination of single simulations into an aggregated master-simulation is not trivial. There are lots of problems, which trigger-specific difficulties during the modeling and execution of such a simulation. In this paper we identify these problems and aim to solve them by mapping the task to the field of multi agent systems. The solution is a new meta-model named AGENTMAP, which is able to mitigate most of the problems and to support intuitive modeling at the same time. This meta-model will be introduced and explained on basis of an example from the e-commerce domain.

Keywords: Multi Agent System, Agent-based Simulation, Distributed Systems, Meta-models.

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1645 Dengue Transmission Model between Infantand Pregnant Woman with Antibody

Authors: R. Kongnuy, P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

Dengue, a disease found in most tropical and subtropical areas of the world. It has become the most common arboviral disease of humans. This disease is caused by any of four serotypes of dengue virus (DEN1-DEN4). In many endemic countries, the average age of getting dengue infection is shifting upwards, dengue in pregnancy and infancy are likely to be encountered more frequently. The dynamics of the disease is studied by a compartmental model involving ordinary differential equations for the pregnant, infant human and the vector populations. The stability of each equilibrium point is given. The epidemic dynamic is discussed. Moreover, the numerical results are shown for difference values of dengue antibody.

Keywords: Dengue antibody, infant, pregnant human, mathematical model.

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1644 Applications of Artificial Neural Network to Building Statistical Models for Qualifying and Indexing Radiation Treatment Plans

Authors: Pei-Ju Chao, Tsair-Fwu Lee, Wei-Luen Huang, Long-Chang Chen, Te-Jen Su, Wen-Ping Chen

Abstract:

The main goal in this paper is to quantify the quality of different techniques for radiation treatment plans, a back-propagation artificial neural network (ANN) combined with biomedicine theory was used to model thirteen dosimetric parameters and to calculate two dosimetric indices. The correlations between dosimetric indices and quality of life were extracted as the features and used in the ANN model to make decisions in the clinic. The simulation results show that a trained multilayer back-propagation neural network model can help a doctor accept or reject a plan efficiently. In addition, the models are flexible and whenever a new treatment technique enters the market, the feature variables simply need to be imported and the model re-trained for it to be ready for use.

Keywords: neural network, dosimetric index, radiation treatment, tumor

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1643 The Characteristics of the Factors that Govern the Preferred Force in the Social Force Model of Pedestrian Movement

Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Mohammed Mahmod Shuaib, Ibtesam M. Abu-Sulyman

Abstract:

The social force model which belongs to the microscopic pedestrian studies has been considered as the supremacy by many researchers and due to the main feature of reproducing the self-organized phenomena resulted from pedestrian dynamic. The Preferred Force which is a measurement of pedestrian-s motivation to adapt his actual velocity to his desired velocity is an essential term on which the model was set up. This Force has gone through stages of development: first of all, Helbing and Molnar (1995) have modeled the original force for the normal situation. Second, Helbing and his co-workers (2000) have incorporated the panic situation into this force by incorporating the panic parameter to account for the panic situations. Third, Lakoba and Kaup (2005) have provided the pedestrians some kind of intelligence by incorporating aspects of the decision-making capability. In this paper, the authors analyze the most important incorporations into the model regarding the preferred force. They make comparisons between the different factors of these incorporations. Furthermore, to enhance the decision-making ability of the pedestrians, they introduce additional features such as the familiarity factor to the preferred force to let it appear more representative of what actually happens in reality.

Keywords: Pedestrian movement, social force model, preferredforce, familiarity.

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1642 Water Demand Prediction for Touristic Mecca City in Saudi Arabia using Neural Networks

Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali

Abstract:

Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.

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1641 Multilevel Fuzzy Decision Support Model for China-s Urban Rail Transit Planning Schemes

Authors: Jin-Bao Zhao, Wei Deng

Abstract:

This paper aims at developing a multilevel fuzzy decision support model for urban rail transit planning schemes in China under the background that China is presently experiencing an unprecedented construction of urban rail transit. In this study, an appropriate model using multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is developed. In the decision process, the followings are considered as the influential objectives: traveler attraction, environment protection, project feasibility and operation. In addition, consistent matrix analysis method is used to determine the weights between objectives and the weights between the objectives- sub-indictors, which reduces the work caused by repeated establishment of the decision matrix on the basis of ensuring the consistency of decision matrix. The application results show that multilevel fuzzy decision model can perfectly deal with the multivariable and multilevel decision process, which is particularly useful in the resolution of multilevel decision-making problem of urban rail transit planning schemes.

Keywords: Urban rail transit, planning schemes, multilevel fuzzy decision support model, consistent matrix analysis

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