Search results for: series system

Authors: Zahra Ghadampour, Gholamreza Rakhshandehroo

Abstract:

A concern that researchers usually face in different applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is determination of the size of effective domain in time series. In this paper, trial and error method was used on groundwater depth time series to determine the size of effective domain in the series in an observation well in Union County, New Jersey, U.S. different domains of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 120 preceding day were examined and the 80 days was considered as effective length of the domain. Data sets in different domains were fed to a Feed Forward Back Propagation ANN with one hidden layer and the groundwater depths were forecasted. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the correlation factor (R2) of estimated and observed groundwater depths for all domains were determined. In general, groundwater depth forecast improved, as evidenced by lower RMSEs and higher R2s, when the domain length increased from 20 to 120. However, 80 days was selected as the effective domain because the improvement was less than 1% beyond that. Forecasted ground water depths utilizing measured daily data (set #1) and data averaged over the effective domain (set #2) were compared. It was postulated that more accurate nature of measured daily data was the reason for a better forecast with lower RMSE (0.1027 m compared to 0.255 m) in set #1. However, the size of input data in this set was 80 times the size of input data in set #2; a factor that may increase the computational effort unpredictably. It was concluded that 80 daily data may be successfully utilized to lower the size of input data sets considerably, while maintaining the effective information in the data set.

Keywords: Neural networks, groundwater depth, forecast.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

Abstract:

This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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Authors: Natarajan Vijayarangan, Prasanna S. Bidare

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Cryptography, Image watermarking and E-banking are filled with apparent oxymora and paradoxes. Random sequences are used as keys to encrypt information to be used as watermark during embedding the watermark and also to extract the watermark during detection. Also, the keys are very much utilized for 24x7x365 banking operations. Therefore a deterministic random sequence is very much useful for online applications. In order to obtain the same random sequence, we need to supply the same seed to the generator. Many researchers have used Deterministic Random Number Generators (DRNGs) for cryptographic applications and Pseudo Noise Random sequences (PNs) for watermarking. Even though, there are some weaknesses in PN due to attacks, the research community used it mostly in digital watermarking. On the other hand, DRNGs have not been widely used in online watermarking due to its computational complexity and non-robustness. Therefore, we have invented a new design of generating DRNG using Pi-series to make it useful for online Cryptographic, Digital watermarking and Banking applications.

Keywords: E-tokens, LFSR, non-linear, Pi series, pseudo random number.

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Authors: Yoshifumi Ishizaki, Naoki Kanatani, Masaki Ito, Toshihiko Sasama, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates the bus location system for the route bus through the experiment in the real environment. A bus location system is a system that provides information such as the bus delay and positions. This system uses actual services and positions data of buses, and those information should match data on the database. The system has two possible problems. One, the system could cost high in preparing devices to get bus positions. Two, it could be difficult to match services data of buses. To avoid these problems, we have developed this system at low cost and short time by using the smart phone with GPS and the bus route system. This system realizes the path planning considering bus delay and displaying position of buses on the map. The bus location system was demonstrated on route buses with smart phones for two months.

Keywords: Route Bus, Path Planning System, GPS, Smart Phone.

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Authors: M. Faraji, F. Berroug

Abstract:

A one-dimensional mathematical model was developed in order to analyze and optimize the latent heat storage wall. The governing equations for energy transport were developed by using the enthalpy method and discretized with volume control scheme. The resulting algebraic equations were next solved iteratively by using TDMA algorithm. A series of numerical investigations were conducted in order to examine the effects of the thickness of the PCM layer on the thermal behavior of the proposed heating system. Results are obtained for thermal gain and temperature fluctuation. The charging discharging process was also presented and analyzed.

Keywords: Phase change material, Building, Concrete, Latent heat, Thermal control.

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Authors: Ayman M. Mansour

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an intelligent system that is used for monitoring the health conditions of patients. Monitoring the health condition of patients is a complex problem that involves different medical units and requires continuous monitoring especially in rural areas because of inadequate number of available specialized physicians. The proposed system will improve patient care and drive costs down comparing to the existing system in Jordan. The proposed system will be the start point to faster and improve the communication between different units in the health system in Jordan. Connecting patients and their physicians beyond hospital doors regarding their geographical area is an important issue in developing the health system in Jordan. The ability of making medical decisions, the quality of medical is expected to be improved.

Keywords: GSM, SMS, Patient, Monitoring system, Fuzzy Logic, Multi-agent system.

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Authors: R. Usubamatov, M. Z. Abdulmuin

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Automated production lines with so called 'hard structures' are widely used in manufacturing. Designers segmented these lines into sections by placing a buffer between the series of machine tools to increase productivity. In real production condition the capacity of a buffer system is limited and real production line can compensate only some part of the productivity losses of an automated line. The productivity of such production lines cannot be readily determined. This paper presents mathematical approach to solving the structure of section-based automated production lines by criterion of maximum productivity.

Keywords: optimization production line, productivity, sections

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Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

Abstract:

This paper analyzes innovation trends in South Korea by means of the number of patent applications filed by residents and nonresidents during the period 1965 to 2012. Making use of patent data released by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), we search for the presence of multiple structural changes in patent application series in this country. These changes may suggest that firms’ innovative activity has been modified as a result of implementing some science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. Accordingly, the new regulations implemented in this country in the last decades have influenced its innovative activity. The question conducting this research is thus how STI policies in South Korea have influenced its innovation activity. The results confirm the existence of multiple structural changes in the series of patent applications resulting from alternative STI policies implemented during these years.

Keywords: Econometric methods, innovation activity, South Korea, patent applications, science, technology and innovation (STI) policy.

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Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, T. Langtharthong

Abstract:

This paper presents the optimal placement and sizing of distributed generation (DG) in a distribution system. The problem is to reliability improvement of distribution system with distributed generations. The technique employed to solve the minimization problem is based on a developed Tabu search algorithm and reliability worth analysis. The developed methodology is tested with a distribution system of Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) bus 2. It can be seen from the case study that distributed generation can reduce the customer interruption cost and therefore improve the reliability of the system. It is expected that our proposed method will be utilized effectively for distribution system operator.

Keywords: Distributed generation Optimization technique Reliability improvement, Distribution system.

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Authors: M. B. Meenavathi, K. Rajesh

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In this paper, we propose a new class of Volterra series based filters for image enhancement and restoration. Generally the linear filters reduce the noise and cause blurring at the edges. Some nonlinear filters based on median operator or rank operator deal with only impulse noise and fail to cancel the most common Gaussian distributed noise. A class of second order Volterra filters is proposed to optimize the trade-off between noise removal and edge preservation. In this paper, we consider both the Gaussian and mixed Gaussian-impulse noise to test the robustness of the filter. Image enhancement and restoration results using the proposed Volterra filter are found to be superior to those obtained with standard linear and nonlinear filters.

Keywords: Gaussian noise, Image enhancement, Imagerestoration, Linear filters, Nonlinear filters, Volterra series.

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Authors: Zubair Ahmad, Muhammad Hassan Sayyad

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In this paper, fabrication and study of electronic properties of Au/methyl-red/Ag surface type Schottky diode by current-voltage (I-V) method has been reported. The I-V characteristics of the Schottky diode showed the good rectifying behavior. The values of ideality factor n and barrier height b of Au/methyl-red/Ag Schottky diode were calculated from the semi-log I-V characteristics and by using the Cheung functions. From semi-log current-voltage characteristics the values of n and b were found 1.93 and 0.254 eV, respectively, while by using Cheung functions their values were calculated 1.89 and 0.26 eV, respectively. The effect of series resistance was also analyzed by Cheung functions. The series resistance RS values were determined from dV/d(lnI)–I and H(I)–I graphs and were found to be 1.1 k and 1.3 k, respectively.

Keywords: Surface type Schottky diodes, Methyl-red, Currentvoltage method

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Authors: Yuki. Akiyama, Hiroaki. Sengoku, Ryosuke. Shibasaki

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In this study, the locations and areas of commercial accumulations were detected by using digital yellow page data. An original buffering method that can accurately create polygons of commercial accumulations is proposed in this paper.; by using this method, distribution of commercial accumulations can be easily created and monitored over a wide area. The locations, areas, and time-series changes of commercial accumulations in the South Kanto region can be monitored by integrating polygons of commercial accumulations with the time-series data of digital yellow page data. The circumstances of commercial accumulations were shown to vary according to areas, that is, highly- urbanized regions such as the city center of Tokyo and prefectural capitals, suburban areas near large cities, and suburban and rural areas.

Keywords: Commercial accumulations, Spatio-temporal analysis, Urban monitoring, Yellow page data

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Authors: Raju Kaduru, Narsaiah Srinivas Gondlala

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This paper presents an analytical approach for evaluating distribution system reliability indices in the presence of distributed generation. Modeling distributed generation and evaluation of distribution system reliability indices using the frequency duration technique. Using model implements and case studies are discussed. Results showed that location of DG and its effect in distribution reliability indices. In this respect, impact of DG on distribution system is investigated using the IEEE Roy Billinton test system (RBTS2) included feeder 1. Therefore, it will help to the distribution system planners in the DG resource placement.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, DG Location, Distribution System, Reliability Indices.

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Authors: Kalinga Ellen A., Bagile Burchard B.

Abstract:

Tanzania Secondary Schools e-Learning (TanSSe-L) system is a customized learning management system (LMS) developed to enable ICT support in teaching and learning functions. Methodologies involved in the development of TanSSe-L system are Object oriented system analysis and design with UML to create and model TanSSe-L system database structure in the form of a design class diagram, Model Driven Architecture (MDA) to provide a well defined process in TanSSe-L system development, where MDA conceptual layers were integrated with system development life cycle and customization of open source learning management system which was used during implementation stage to create a timely functional TanSSe-L system. Before customization, a base for customization was prepared. This was the manual transformation from TanSSe-L system platform independent models (PIM) to TanSSe-L system specific PIM. This paper presents how Moodle open source LMS was analyzed and prepared to be the TanSSe-L system specific PIM as applied by MDA.

Keywords: Customization, e-Learning, MDA Transformation, Moodle, Secondary Schools, Tanzania.

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Authors: M.A.A. Younis, N. A. Rahim, S. Mekhilef

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and analysis of a parallel connected inverter configuration of. The configuration consists of parallel connected three-phase dc/ac inverter. Series resistors added to the inverter output to maintain same current in each inverter of the two parallel inverters, and to reduce the circulating current in the parallel inverters to the minimum. High frequency third harmonic injection PWM (THIPWM) employed to reduce the total harmonic distortion and to make maximum use of the voltage source. DSP was used to generate the THIPWM and the control algorithm for the converter. Selected experimental results have been shown to validate the proposed system.

Keywords: Three-phase inverter, Third harmonic injection PWM, inverters parallel connection.

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Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad

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The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.

Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall.

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Authors: Manfred Hartmann, Andreas Graef, Hannes Perko, Christoph Baumgartner, Tilmann Kluge

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In this paper we introduce a novel method for the characterization of synchronziation and coupling effects in multivariate time series that can be used for the analysis of EEG or ECoG signals recorded during epileptic seizures. The method allows to visualize the spatio-temporal evolution of synchronization and coupling effects that are characteristic for epileptic seizures. Similar to other methods proposed for this purpose our method is based on a regression analysis. However, a more general definition of the regression together with an effective channel selection procedure allows to use the method even for time series that are highly correlated, which is commonly the case in EEG/ECoG recordings with large numbers of electrodes. The method was experimentally tested on ECoG recordings of epileptic seizures from patients with temporal lobe epilepsies. A comparision with the results from a independent visual inspection by clinical experts showed an excellent agreement with the patterns obtained with the proposed method.

Keywords: EEG, epilepsy, regression analysis, seizurepropagation.

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Authors: Jean-Jacques Randrianarimanana, Nassim Sebaibi, Mohamed Boutouil

Abstract:

In order to solve problems associated with stormwater runoff in urban areas and their effects on natural and artificial water bodies, the integration of new technical solutions to the rainwater drainage becomes even more essential. Permeable pavement systems are one of the most widely used techniques. This paper presents a laboratory analysis of stormwater runoff hydraulic and pollutant removal performance of permeable pavement system using pervious pavements based on seashell products. The laboratory prototype is a square column of 25 cm of side and consists of the surface in pervious concrete, a bedding of 3 cm in height, a geotextile and a subbase layer of 50 cm in height. A series of constant simulated rain events using semi-synthetic runoff which varied in intensity and duration were carried out. The initial vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity of the entire pervious pavement system was 0.25 cm/s (148 L/m²/min). The hydraulic functioning was influenced by both the inlet flow rate value and the test duration. The total water losses including evaporation ranged between 9% to 20% for all hydraulic experiments. The temporal and vertical variability of the pollutant removal efficiency (PRE) of the system were studied for total suspended solids (TSS). The results showed that the PRE along the vertical profile was influenced by the size of the suspended solids, and the pervious paver has the highest capacity to trap pollutant than the other porous layers of the permeable pavement system after the geotextile. The TSS removal efficiency was about 80% for the entire system. The first-flush effect of TSS was observed, but it appeared only at the beginning (2 to 6 min) of the experiments. It has been shown that the PPS can capture first-flush. The project in which this study is integrated aims to contribute to both the valorization of shellfish waste and the sustainable management of rainwater.

Keywords: Hydraulic, pervious concrete, pollutant removal efficiency, seashell by-products, stormwater runoff.

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Authors: Yu-Chi Shiue, Jyong Lin, Shih-Chang Chen

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With the increase of economic behavior and the upgrade of living standar, the ratio for people in Taiwan who own automobiles and motorcycles have recently increased with multiples. Therefore, parking issues will be a big challenge to facilitate traffic network and ensure urban life quality. The Parking Guidance and Information System is one of important systems for Advanced Traveler Information Services (ATIS). This research proposes a parking guidance and information system which integrates GPS and 3G network for a map on the Geographic Information System to solution inadequate of roadside information kanban. The system proposed in this study mainly includes Parking Host, Parking Guidance and Information Server, Geographic Map and Information System as well as Parking Guidance and Information Browser. The study results show this system can increase driver-s efficiency to find parking space and efficiently enhance parking convenience in comparison with roadside kanban system.

Keywords: Geographic Information System, 3G, GPS, parkinginformation

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Authors: Jing Zhu, Liancun Zheng, Xinxin Zhang

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This work is focused on the steady boundary layer flow near the forward stagnation point of plane and axisymmetric bodies towards a stretching sheet. The no slip condition on the solid boundary is replaced by the partial slip condition. The analytical solutions for the velocity distributions are obtained for the various values of the ratio of free stream velocity and stretching velocity, slip parameter, the suction and injection velocity parameter, magnetic parameter and dimensionality index parameter in the series forms with the help of homotopy analysis method (HAM). Convergence of the series is explicitly discussed. Results show that the flow and the skin friction coefficient depend heavily on the velocity slip factor. In addition, the effects of all the parameters mentioned above were more pronounced for plane flows than for axisymmetric flows.

Keywords: slip flow, axisymmetric flow, homotopy analysismethod, stagnation-point.

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Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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Authors: Amy LeBar, Kim L. Trenbath, Bennett Doherty, William Livingood

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Plug and process loads (PPLs) account for a large portion of U.S. commercial building energy use. There is a huge potential to reduce whole building consumption by targeting PPLs for energy savings measures or implementing some form of plug load management (PLM). Despite this potential, there has yet to be a widely adopted commercial PLM technology. This paper describes the Automatic Type and Location Identification System (ATLIS), a PLM system framework with automatic and dynamic load detection (ADLD). ADLD gives PLM systems the ability to automatically identify devices as they are plugged into the outlets of a building. The ATLIS framework takes advantage of smart, connected devices to identify device locations in a building, meter and control their power, and communicate this information to a central database. ATLIS includes five primary capabilities: location identification, communication, control, energy metering, and data storage. A laboratory proof of concept (PoC) demonstrated all but the energy metering capability, and these capabilities were validated using a series of system tests. The PoC was able to identify when a device was plugged into an outlet and the location of the device in the building. When a device was moved, the PoC’s dashboard and database were automatically updated with the new location. The PoC implemented controls to devices from the system dashboard so that devices maintained correct schedules regardless of where they were plugged in within the building. ATLIS’s primary technology application is improved PLM, but other applications include asset management, energy audits, and interoperability for grid-interactive efficient buildings. An ATLIS-based system could also be used to direct power to critical devices, such as ventilators, during a brownout or blackout. Such a framework is an opportunity to make PLM more widespread and reduce the amount of energy consumed by PPLs in current and future commercial buildings.

Keywords: commercial buildings, grid-interactive efficient buildings, miscellaneous electric loads, plug loads, plug load management

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Authors: Manoela Cabo da Silva, Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Pacheco, Heloisa Pires

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This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.

Keywords: Air passenger transport, cointegration, economic growth, GDP, granger causality.

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Authors: Amjaad Alsalamah, Liyakathunsia Syed

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Transportation is an essential need for many people to go to their work, school, and home. In particular, the main common method inside many cities is to drive the car. Driving a car can be an easy job to reach the destination and load all stuff in a reasonable time. However, deciding to find a parking lot for a car can take a long time using the traditional system that can issue a paper ticket for each customer. The old system cannot guarantee a parking lot for all customers. Also, payment methods are not always available, and many customers struggled to find their car among a numerous number of cars. As a result, this research focuses on providing an online smart parking system in order to save time and budget. This system provides a flexible management system for both parking owner and customers by receiving all request via the online system and it gets an accurate result for all available parking and its location.

Keywords: Smart parking system, IoT, tracking system, process model, cost, time.

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Authors: M. H. Moradi, S. M. Moosavi, A. R. Reisi

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the enhancement of power system stability via coordinated tuning of Power System Stabilizers (PSSs) in a multi-machine power system. The design problem of the proposed controllers is formulated as an optimization problem. Chaotic catfish particle swarm optimization (C-Catfish PSO) algorithm is used to minimize the ITAE objective function. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on a two-area, 4- machines system. The robustness of the proposed algorithm is verified on this system under different operating conditions and applying a three-phase fault. The nonlinear time-domain simulation results and some performance indices show the effectiveness of the proposed controller in damping power system oscillations and this novel optimization algorithm is compared with particle swarm optimization (PSO).

Keywords: Power system stabilizer, C-Catfish PSO, ITAE objective function, Power system control, Multi-machine power system

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Authors: Chih-Jian Hu, Chung-Chih Cheng, Hsiao-Yuan Wu., Nien-Tzu Chao

Abstract:

Increasing user comfort and reducing operation costs have always been primary objectives of lighting control strategies in a building. This paper proposes an architecture of the lighting control system for a daylit office. The system consists of the lighting controller, A/D & D/A converter, dimmable LED lights, and the lighting management software. Verification tests are conducted using the proposed system specialized for the interior lighting of a open-plan office. The results showed the proposed architecture of the lighting system would improve the overall system reliability, lower the system cost, and provide ease of installation and maintenance.

Keywords: control, dimming, LED, lighting.

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Authors: A. Gandomkar, R. Dehghani

Abstract:

Drought is natural and climate phenomenon and in fact server as a part of climate in an area and also it has significant environmental, social ,and economic consequences .drought differs from the other natural disasters from this viewpoint that it s a creeping phenomenon meaning that it progresses little and its difficult to determine the time of its onset and termination .most of the drought definitions are on based on precipitation shortage and consequently ,the shortage of water some of the activities related to the water such as agriculture In this research ,drought condition in Fars province was evacuated using SPI method within a 37 year – statistical –period(1974-2010)and maps related to the drought were prepared for each of the statistical period years. According to the results obtained from this research, the years 1974, 1976, 1975, 1982 with SPI (-1.03, 0.39, -1.05, -1.49) respectively, were the doughiest years and 1996,1997,2000 with SPI (2.49, 1.49, 1.46, 1.04) respectively, the most humid within the studying time series and the rest are in more normal conditions in the term of drought.

Keywords: Fars Province, Drought, SPI Method, Time Series

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Authors: Changhong Guo, Shaomei Fang, Yong He

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In this paper, fractional Black-Scholes models for the European option pricing were established based on the fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm), which generalizes the concepts of the classical Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion and the G-Brownian motion, and that can be used to be a tool for considering the long range dependence and uncertain volatility for the financial markets simultaneously. A generalized fractional Black-Scholes equation (FBSE) was derived by using the Taylor’s series of fractional order and the theory of absence of arbitrage. Finally, some explicit option pricing formulas for the European call option and put option under the FBSE were also solved, which extended the classical option pricing formulas given by F. Black and M. Scholes.

Keywords: European option pricing, fractional Black-Scholes equations, fractional G-Brownian motion, Taylor’s series of fractional order, uncertain volatility.

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Authors: Mamta Agrawal, Neeru Adlakha, K.R. Pardasani

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An attempt has been made to develop a seminumerical model to study temperature variations in dermal layers of human limbs. The model has been developed for two dimensional steady state case. The human limb has been assumed to have elliptical cross section. The dermal region has been divided into three natural layers namely epidermis, dermis and subdermal tissues. The model incorporates the effect of important physiological parameters like blood mass flow rate, metabolic heat generation, and thermal conductivity of the tissues. The outer surface of the limb is exposed to the environment and it is assumed that heat loss takes place at the outer surface by conduction, convection, radiation, and evaporation. The temperature of inner core of the limb also varies at the lower atmospheric temperature. Appropriate boundary conditions have been framed based on the physical conditions of the problem. Cubic splines approach has been employed along radial direction and Fourier series along angular direction to obtain the solution. The numerical results have been computed for different values of eccentricity resembling with the elliptic cross section of the human limbs. The numerical results have been used to obtain the temperature profile and to study the relationships among the various physiological parameters.

Keywords: Blood Mass Flow Rate, Metabolic Heat Generation, Fourier Series, Cubic splines and Thermal Conductivity.

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Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

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ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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