Search results for: rainfall variability.

Authors: Muhamad Azani Yahya, Vikneswaran Munikanan, Mohammed Alias Yusof

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Lean thinking holds the potential for improving the construction sector, and therefore, it is a concept that should be adopted by construction sector players and academicians in the real industry. Bridging from that, a learning process for construction sector players regarding this matter should be the agenda in gaining the knowledge in preparation for their career. Lean principles offer opportunities for reducing lead times, eliminating non-value adding activities, reducing variability, and are facilitated by methods such as pull scheduling, simplified operations and buffer reduction. Thus, the drive for rapid construction, which is a systematic approach in enhancing efficiency to deliver a project using time reduction, while lean is the continuous process of eliminating waste, meeting or exceeding all customer requirements, focusing on the entire value stream and pursuing perfection in the execution of a constructed project. The methodology presented is shown to be valid through literature, interviews and questionnaire. The results show that the majority of construction sector players unfamiliar with lean thinking and they agreed that it can improve the construction process flow. With this background knowledge established and identified, best practices and recommended action are drawn.

Keywords: Construction improvement, rapid construction, time reduction, lean construction.

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Authors: Kaustav Kundu, Alberto Portioli Staudacher

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Construction industry plays a vital role in the economy of the world. However, due to high uncertainty and variability in the industry, its performance is not as efficient in terms of quality, lead times, productivity and costs as of other industries. Moreover, there are continuous conflicts among the different actors in the construction supply chains in terms of profit sharing. Previous studies suggested partnership as an important approach to promote cooperation among the different actors in the construction supply chains and thereby it improves the overall performance. Construction practitioners tried to focus on partnership which can enhance the performance of construction supply chains but they are not fully aware of different approaches and techniques for improving partnership. In this research, a systematic review on partnership in relation to construction supply chains is carried out to understand different elements influencing the partnership. The research development of this domain is analyzed by reviewing selected articles published from 1996 to 2015. Based on the papers, three major elements influencing partnership in construction supply chains are identified: ‘Lean approach’, ‘Relationship building’ and ‘E-commerce applications’. This study analyses the contributions in the areas within each element and provides suggestions for future developments of partnership in construction supply chains.

Keywords: Partnership, construction, lean, SCM, supply chain management.

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Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Monzur Alam Imteaz, Mohammed Iqbal Hossain

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Estimation of stormwater pollutants is a pre-requisite for the protection and improvement of the aquatic environment and for appropriate management options. The usual practice for the stormwater quality prediction is performed through water quality modeling. However, the accuracy of the prediction by the models depends on the proper estimation of model parameters. This paper presents the estimation of model parameters for a catchment water quality model developed for the continuous simulation of stormwater pollutants from a catchment to the catchment outlet. The model is capable of simulating the accumulation and transportation of the stormwater pollutants; suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from a particular catchment. Rainfall and water quality data were collected for the Hotham Creek Catchment (HTCC), Gold Coast, Australia. Runoff calculations from the developed model were compared with the calculated discharges from the widely used hydrological models, WBNM and DRAINS. Based on the measured water quality data, model water quality parameters were calibrated for the above-mentioned catchment. The calibrated parameters are expected to be helpful for the best management practices (BMPs) of the region. Sensitivity analyses of the estimated parameters were performed to assess the impacts of the model parameters on overall model estimations of runoff water quality.

Keywords: Calibration, Model Parameters, Suspended Solids, TotalNitrogen, Total Phosphorus.

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Authors: ZerarkaHizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

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Landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) has been an old slip since 1969; it was reactivated after an intense rainfall period in 2008 where it presents a complex shape and affects broad areas. The schist of AEH is more or less altered; the alteration is facilitated by the fracturing of the rock in its upper part, the presence of flowing water as well as physical and chemical mechanisms of desegregation in joint of altered schist. The factors following these instabilities are mostly related to the geological formation, the hydro-climatic conditions and the topography of the region. The city of AEH is located on the top of a steep slope at 50 km from the city of TiziOuzou (Algeria). AEH’s topographic monitoring of unstable slope allows analyzing the structure and the different deformation mechanism and the gradual change in the geometry, the direction of change of slip. It also allows us to delimit the area affected by the movement. This work aims to study the behavior of AEH landslide with topographic monitoring and to validate the results with numerical modeling of the slip site, when the hydraulic factors are identified as the most important factors for the reactivation of this landslide. With the help of the numerical code PLAXIS 2D and PlaxFlow, the precipitations and the steady state flow are modeled. To identify the mechanism of deformation and to predict the spread of the AEH landslide numerically, we used the equivalent deviatory strain, and these results were visualized by MATLAB software.

Keywords: Equivalent deviatory strain, landslide, numerical modeling, topographic monitoring.

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Authors: M. E. Ghobadi, M. Ghobadi

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Waterlogging reduces shoot and root growth and final yield of wheat. Waterlogged sites have a combination of low slope, high rainfall, heavy texture and low permeability. This study was aimed the importance of waterlogging on root growth and wheat yield. In order to study the effects of different waterlogging duration (0, 10, 20 and 30 days) at growth stages (1-leaf stage, tillering stage and stem elongation stage) on root growth of wheat cultivars (Chamran, Vee/Nac and Yavaroos), one pot experiment was carried out. The experiment was a factorial according to a RCBD with three replications. Results showed that root dry weight and total root length in the anthesis and grain ripening stages and biological and grain yields were significantly different between cultivars, growth stages and waterlogging durations. Vee/Nac was found superior with respect to other cultivars. Susceptibility to waterlogging at different growth stages for cultivars was 1-leaf stage > tillering stage > stem elongation stage. Under waterlogging treatments, grain and biological yields, were decreased 44.5 and 39.8%, respectively. Root length and root dry weight were reduced 55.1 and 45.2%, respectively, too. In this experiment, decrease at root growth because of waterlogging reduced grain and biological yields. Based on the results, even short period (10 days) of waterlogging had unrecoverable effects on the root growth and grain yield of wheat.

Keywords: Wheat, waterlogging, root length, root dry weight, grain yield.

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Authors: Madhuri Bhavsar, Anupam K Singh, Shrikant Pradhan

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Long term rainfall analysis and prediction is a challenging task especially in the modern world where the impact of global warming is creating complications in environmental issues. These factors which are data intensive require high performance computational modeling for accurate prediction. This research paper describes a prototype which is designed and developed on grid environment using a number of coupled software infrastructural building blocks. This grid enabled system provides the demanding computational power, efficiency, resources, user-friendly interface, secured job submission and high throughput. The results obtained using sequential execution and grid enabled execution shows that computational performance has enhanced among 36% to 75%, for decade of climate parameters. Large variation in performance can be attributed to varying degree of computational resources available for job execution. Grid Computing enables the dynamic runtime selection, sharing and aggregation of distributed and autonomous resources which plays an important role not only in business, but also in scientific implications and social surroundings. This research paper attempts to explore the grid enabled computing capabilities on weather indices from HOAPS data for climate impact modeling and change detection.

Keywords: Climate model, Computational Grid, GridApplication, Heterogeneous Grid

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Authors: M. P. Sebastian

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Health for all is considered as a sign of well-being and inclusive growth. New healthcare technologies are contributing to the quality of human lives by promoting health education and awareness, leading to the prevention, early diagnosis and treatment of the symptoms of diseases. Healthcare technologies have now migrated from the medical and institutionalized settings to the home and everyday life. This paper explores these new technologies and investigates how they contribute to health education and awareness, promoting the objective of high-value health system for all. The methodology used for the research is literature review. The paper also discusses the opportunities and challenges with futuristic healthcare technologies. The combined advances in genomics medicine, wearables and the IoT with enhanced data collection in electronic health record (EHR) systems, environmental sensors, and mobile device applications can contribute in a big way to high-value health system for all. The promise by these technologies includes reduced total cost of healthcare, reduced incidence of medical diagnosis errors, and reduced treatment variability. The major barriers to adoption include concerns with security, privacy, and integrity of healthcare data, regulation and compliance issues, service reliability, interoperability and portability of data, and user friendliness and convenience of these technologies.

Keywords: Bigdata, education, healthcare, ICT, patients, technologies.

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Authors: A. Sawangsuriya, T. B. Edil

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Microstructure and fabric of soils play an important role on structural properties e.g. stiffness and strength of compacted earthwork. Traditional quality control monitoring based on moisturedensity tests neither reflects the variability of soil microstructure nor provides a direct assessment of structural property, which is the ultimate objective of the earthwork quality control. Since stiffness and strength are sensitive to soil microstructure and fabric, any independent test methods that provide simple, rapid, and direct measurement of stiffness and strength are anticipated to provide an effective assessment of compacted earthen materials’ uniformity. In this study, the soil stiffness gauge (SSG) and the dynamic cone penetrometer (DCP) were respectively utilized to measure and monitor the stiffness and strength in companion with traditional moisture-density measurements of various earthen materials used in Thailand road construction projects. The practical earthwork quality control criteria are presented herein in order to assure proper earthwork quality control and uniform structural property of compacted earthworks.

Keywords: Dynamic cone penetrometer, moisture content, relative compaction, soil stiffness gauge, structural property.

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Authors: Zaouche Mohammed, Amini Mohammed, Foughali Khaled, Hamissi Aicha, Aktouf Mohand Arezki, Boureghda Ilyes

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In this paper, we present a piloting law based on the adaptive differentiators via high order sliding mode controller, by using an aircraft in virtual simulated environment. To deal with the design of an autopilot controller, we propose a framework based on Software in the Loop (SIL) methodology and we use Microsoft^TM Flight Simulator (FS-2004) as the environment for plane simulation. The aircraft dynamic model is nonlinear, Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) and tightly coupled. The nonlinearity resides in the dynamic equations and also in the aerodynamic coefficients' variability. In our case, two (02) aircrafts are used in the flight tests, the Zlin-142 and MQ-1 Predator. For both aircrafts and in a very low altitude flight, we send the piloting control inputs to the aircraft which has stalled due to a command disconnection. Then, we present the aircraft’s dynamic behavior analysis while reestablishing the command transmission. Finally, a comparative study between the two aircraft’s dynamic behaviors is presented.

Keywords: Adaptive differentiators, Microsoft Flight Simulator, MQ-1 predator, second order sliding modes, Zlin-142.

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Authors: Ammar Elyas babiker, M.Nordin B. Zakaria, Hassan Yosif, Samir B. Ibrahim

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Variable channel conditions in underwater networks, and variable distances between sensors due to water current, leads to variable bit error rate (BER). This variability in BER has great effects on energy efficiency of error correction techniques used. In this paper an efficient energy adaptive hybrid error correction technique (AHECT) is proposed. AHECT adaptively changes error technique from pure retransmission (ARQ) in a low BER case to a hybrid technique with variable encoding rates (ARQ & FEC) in a high BER cases. An adaptation algorithm depends on a precalculated packet acceptance rate (PAR) look-up table, current BER, packet size and error correction technique used is proposed. Based on this adaptation algorithm a periodically 3-bit feedback is added to the acknowledgment packet to state which error correction technique is suitable for the current channel conditions and distance. Comparative studies were done between this technique and other techniques, and the results show that AHECT is more energy efficient and has high probability of success than all those techniques.

Keywords: Underwater communication, wireless sensornetworks, error correction technique, energy efficiency

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Authors: T. Häfele, J. Kaspar, M. Vielhaber, W. Calles, J. Griebsch

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The demand for an increasing diversification of the product spectrum associated with the current huge customization desire and subsequently the decreasing unit quantities of each production lot is gaining more and more importance within a great variety of industrial branches, e.g. automotive industry. Nevertheless, traditional product development and production processes (molding, extrusion) are already reaching their limits or fail to address these trends of a flexible and digitized production in view of a product variability up to lot size one. Thus, upcoming innovative production concepts like the additive manufacturing technology basically create new opportunities with regard to extensive potentials in product development (constructive optimization) and manufacturing (economic individualization), but mostly suffer from insufficient strength regarding structural components. Therefore, this contribution presents an innovative technological and procedural conception of a hybrid additive manufacturing process (fiber-reinforced sandwich structures based on selective laser sintering technology) to overcome these current structural weaknesses, and consequently support the design of complex lightweight components.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, fiber-reinforced plastics, hybrid design, lightweight design.

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Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

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This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: Intentional bias, Management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability.

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Authors: George N. Zaimes, Valasia Iakovoglou, Paschalis Koutalakis, Konstantinos Ioannou, Ioannis Kosmadakis, Panagiotis Tsardaklis, Theodoros Laopoulos

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The advancements in technology allow the development of a new system that can continuously measure surface soil erosion. Continuous soil erosion measurements are required in order to comprehend the erosional processes and propose effective and efficient conservation measures to mitigate surface erosion. Mitigating soil erosion, especially in Mediterranean countries such as Greece, is essential in order to maintain environmental and agricultural sustainability. In this paper, we present the Automated Soil Erosion Monitoring System (ASEMS) that measures surface soil erosion along with other factors that impact erosional process. Specifically, this system measures ground level changes (surface soil erosion), rainfall, air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture. Another important innovation is that the data will be collected by remote communication. In addition, stakeholder’s awareness is a key factor to help reduce any environmental problem. The different dissemination activities that were utilized are described. The overall outcomes were the development of a new innovative system that can measure erosion very accurately. These data from the system help study the process of erosion and find the best possible methods to reduce erosion. The dissemination activities enhance the stakeholders and public's awareness on surface soil erosion problems and will lead to the adoption of more effective soil erosion conservation practices in Greece.

Keywords: Soil management, climate change, new technologies, conservation practices.

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Authors: Godwin A. Otogo, Sansanee Wangvoralak, Graham J. Pierce, Lee C. Hastie, Beth Scott

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The squid Loligo forbesii is suspected to be an important species in marine food webs, as it can strongly impact its prey and be impacted upon by predation, competition, fishing and/or climate variability. To quantify these impacts in the food web, the measurement of its trophic position and ecological role within well-studied ecosystems is essential. An Ecopath model was balanced and run for the Moray Firth ecosystem and was used to investigate the significance of this squid’s trophic roles. The network analysis routine included in Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) was used to estimate trophic interaction, system indicators (health condition and developmental stage) and food web features. Results indicated that within the Moray Firth squid occupy a top trophic position in the food web and also a major prey item for many other species. Results from Omnivory Index (OI) showed that squid is a generalized feeder transferring energy across wide trophic levels and is more important as a predator than that as a prey in the Moray Firth ecosystem. The results highlight the importance of taking squid into account in the management of Europe’s living marine resources.

Keywords: Ecopath, Loligo forbesii, moray firth, squid, trophic-level.

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Authors: Maris Klavins, Valery Rodinov

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The aim of this study was to analyze long term changes of surface water quality in Latvia, spatial variability of water chemical composition, possible impacts of different pollution sources as well as to analyze the measures to protect national water resources - river basin management. Within this study, the concentrations of major water ingredients and microelements in major rivers and lakes of Latvia have been determined. Metal concentrations in river and lake waters were compared with water chemical composition. The mean concentrations of trace metals in inland waters of Latvia are appreciably lower than the estimated world averages for river waters and close to or lower than background values, unless regional impacts determined by local geochemistry. This may be explained by a comparatively lower level of anthropogenic load. In the same time in several places, direct anthropogenic impacts are evident, regarding influences of point sources both transboundary transport impacts. Also, different processes related to pollution of surface waters in Latvia have been analyzed. At first the analysis of changes and composition of pollutant emissions in Latvia has been realized, and the obtained results were compared with actual composition of atmospheric precipitation and their changes in time.

Keywords: Water quality, trend analysis, pollution, human impact.

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Authors: Z. Popova, L. S. Pereira, М. Ivanova, P. Alexandrova, K. Doneva, V. Alexandrov, M. Kercheva

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This study assesses the vulnerability of Bulgarian agriculture to drought using the WINISAREG model and seasonal standard precipitation index SPI(2) for the period 1951-2004. This model was previously validated for maize on soils of different water holding capacity (TAW) in various locations. Simulations are performed for Plovdiv, Stara Zagora and Sofia. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (180 mm m-1) net irrigation requirements (NIRs) range 0-40 mm in wet years and 350-380 mm in dry years. In soils of small TAW (116 mm m-1), NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia are about 80 mm smaller. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability (29%91%) were found for seasonal agricultural drought relating the SPI (2) for “July-Aug" with the simulated RYD of rainfed maize while in Stara Zagora and Sofia the relationships are less accurate (R2>71%). When rainfed maize is grown on soils of large TAW economical losses are produced when high peak season SPI (2) < -0.50 in Plovdiv/Stara Zagora and SPI (2) < -0.90 in Sofia. The corresponding NIR thresholds were identified.

Keywords: Drought vulnerability, ISAREG simulation model, South Bulgaria, SPI-index

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: Daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events.

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Authors: M. Mhada, E. N. Jellen, S. E. Jacobsen, O. Benlhabib

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The present work has been carried out to evaluate the diversity of a collection of 78 quinoa accessions developed through recurrent selection from Andean germplasm introduced to Morocco in the winter of 2000. Twenty-three quantitative and qualitative characters were used for the evaluation of genetic diversity and the relationship between the accessions, and also for the establishment of a core collection in Morocco. Important variation was found among the accessions in terms of plant morphology and growth behavior. Data analysis showed positive correlation of the plant height, the plant fresh and the dry weight with the grain yield, while days to flowering was found to be negatively correlated with grain yield. The first four PCs contributed 74.76% of the variability; the first PC showed significant variation with 42.86% of the total variation, PC2 with 15.37%, PC3 with 9.05% and PC4 contributed 7.49% of the total variation. Plant size, days to grain filling and days to maturity are correlated to the PC1; and seed size, inflorescence density and mildew resistance are correlated to the PC2. Hierarchical cluster analysis rearranged the 78 quinoa accessions into four main groups and ten sub-clusters. Clustering was found in associations with days to maturity and also with plant size and seed-size traits.

Keywords: Character association, Chenopodium quinoa, Diversity analysis, Morphotypic cluster, Multivariate analysis.

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Authors: Chung-Hung Tsai

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Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.

Keywords: Tourism industry, extreme weather, multi-hazard, vulnerability analysis, loss exceeding probability, risk management.

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Authors: A. Mir, C. Aribi, B. Bezzazi

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Work presented is interested in the characterization of the quasistatic mechanical properties and in fatigue of a composite laminated in jute/epoxy. The natural fibers offer promising prospects thanks to their interesting specific properties, because of their low density, but also with their bio-deterioration. Several scientific studies highlighted the good mechanical resistance of the vegetable fiber composites reinforced, even after several recycling. Because of the environmental standards that become increasingly severe, one attends the emergence of eco-materials at the base of natural fibers such as flax, bamboo, hemp, sisal, jute. The fatigue tests on elementary vegetable fibers show an increase of about 60% of the rigidity of elementary fibers of hemp subjected to cyclic loadings. In this study, the test-tubes manufactured by the method infusion have sequences of stacking of 0/90° and ± 45° for the shearing and tensile tests. The quasistatic tests reveal a variability of the mechanical properties of about 8%. The tensile fatigue tests were carried out for levels of constraints equivalent to half of the ultimate values of the composite. Once the fatigue tests carried out for well-defined values of cycles, a series of static tests of traction type highlights the influence of the number of cycles on the quasi-static mechanical behavior of the laminate jute/epoxy.

Keywords: Jute, epoxy resin, mechanical, static, dynamic behavior.

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Authors: Asma Rabaoui, Zied Lachiri, Noureddine Ellouze

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Discrimination between different classes of environmental sounds is the goal of our work. The use of a sound recognition system can offer concrete potentialities for surveillance and security applications. The first paper contribution to this research field is represented by a thorough investigation of the applicability of state-of-the-art audio features in the domain of environmental sound recognition. Additionally, a set of novel features obtained by combining the basic parameters is introduced. The quality of the features investigated is evaluated by a HMM-based classifier to which a great interest was done. In fact, we propose to use a Multi-Style training system based on HMMs: one recognizer is trained on a database including different levels of background noises and is used as a universal recognizer for every environment. In order to enhance the system robustness by reducing the environmental variability, we explore different adaptation algorithms including Maximum Likelihood Linear Regression (MLLR), Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) and the MAP/MLLR algorithm that combines MAP and MLLR. Experimental evaluation shows that a rather good recognition rate can be reached, even under important noise degradation conditions when the system is fed by the convenient set of features.

Keywords: Sounds recognition, HMM classifier, Multi-style training, Environmental Adaptation, Feature combinations.

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Authors: A. Abdullah, A. Bakshwain, A. Aslam

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Livestock is one of the fastest-growing sectors in agriculture. If carefully managed, have potential opportunities for economic growth, food sovereignty and food security. In this study we mainly analyse and compare long-term i.e. for year 2030 climate variability impact on predicted productivity of meat i.e. beef, mutton and poultry for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia w.r.t three factors i.e. i) climatic-change vulnerability ii) CO2 fertilization and iii) water scarcity and compare the results with two countries of the region i.e. Iraq and Yemen. We do the analysis using data from diverse sources, which was extracted, transformed and integrated before usage. The collective impact of the three factors had an overall negative effect on the production of meat for all the three countries, with adverse impact on Iraq. High similarity was found between CO2 fertilization (effecting animal fodder) and water scarcity i.e. higher than that between production of beef and mutton for the three countries considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favorable for the three Middle-East countries considered. This points to possibility of a vegetarian year 2030 based on dependency on indigenous livestock population.

Keywords: Prediction, animal-source foods, pastures, CO2 fertilization, climatic-change vulnerability, water scarcity.

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Authors: V. Jafari, M. Jafari

Abstract:

When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.

Keywords: ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari, climate change, impacts, Iran, milk production.

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Authors: Pingping Zhang, Yanpeng Cai, Jianlong Wang

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Stormwater storage tank (SST) is a popular low impact development technology for reducing stormwater runoff in the construction of sponge city. At present, it is difficult to perform the automatic control of SST for reducing peak flow. In this paper, fuzzy control was introduced into the peak control of SST to improve the efficiency of reducing stormwater runoff. Firstly, the design of SST was investigated. A catchment area and a return period were assumed, a SST model was manufactured, and then the storage capacity of the SST was verified. Secondly, the control parameters of the SST based on reducing stormwater runoff were analyzed, and a schematic diagram of real-time control (RTC) system based on peak control SST was established. Finally, fuzzy control system of a double input (flow and water level) and double output (inlet and outlet valve) was designed. The results showed that 1) under the different return periods (one year, three years, five years), the SST had the effect of delayed peak control and storage by increasing the detention time, 2) rainfall, pipeline flow, the influent time and the water level in the SST could be used as RTC parameters, and 3) the response curves of flow velocity and water level fluctuated very little and reached equilibrium in a short time. The combination of online monitoring and fuzzy control was feasible to control the SST automatically. This paper provides a theoretical reference for reducing stormwater runoff and improving the operation efficiency of SST.

Keywords: Stormwater runoff, stormwater storage tank, real-time control, fuzzy control.

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Authors: Ali Keshavarzi, Fereydoon Sarmadian

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Investigation of soil properties like Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) plays important roles in study of environmental reaserches as the spatial and temporal variability of this property have been led to development of indirect methods in estimation of this soil characteristic. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide an alternative by estimating soil parameters from more readily available soil data. 70 soil samples were collected from different horizons of 15 soil profiles located in the Ziaran region, Qazvin province, Iran. Then, multivariate regression and neural network model (feedforward back propagation network) were employed to develop a pedotransfer function for predicting soil parameter using easily measurable characteristics of clay and organic carbon. The performance of the multivariate regression and neural network model was evaluated using a test data set. In order to evaluate the models, root mean square error (RMSE) was used. The value of RMSE and R2 derived by ANN model for CEC were 0.47 and 0.94 respectively, while these parameters for multivariate regression model were 0.65 and 0.88 respectively. Results showed that artificial neural network with seven neurons in hidden layer had better performance in predicting soil cation exchange capacity than multivariate regression.

Keywords: Easily measurable characteristics, Feed-forwardback propagation, Pedotransfer functions, CEC.

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Authors: Ingy A. El-Khouly, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Aziz E. El-Sayed

Abstract:

The process of wafer fabrication is arguably the most technologically complex and capital intensive stage in semiconductor manufacturing. This large-scale discrete-event process is highly reentrant, and involves hundreds of machines, restrictions, and processing steps. Therefore, production control of wafer fabrication facilities (fab), specifically scheduling, is one of the most challenging problems that this industry faces. Dispatching rules have been extensively applied to the scheduling problems in semiconductor manufacturing. Moreover, lot release policies are commonly used in this manufacturing setting to further improve the performance of such systems and reduce its inherent variability. In this work, simulation is used in the scheduling of re-entrant flow shop manufacturing systems with an application in semiconductor wafer fabrication; where, a simulation model has been developed for the Intel Five-Machine Six Step Mini-Fab using the ExtendTM simulation environment. The Mini-Fab has been selected as it captures the challenges involved in scheduling the highly re-entrant semiconductor manufacturing lines. A number of scenarios have been developed and have been used to evaluate the effect of different dispatching rules and lot release policies on the selected performance measures. Results of simulation showed that the performance of the Mini-Fab can be drastically improved using a combination of dispatching rules and lot release policy.

Keywords: Dispatching rules, lot release policy, re-entrant flowshop, semiconductor manufacturing.

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Authors: Mohammad Adnan Rajib, Md.Rubayet Mortuza, Saranah Selmi, Asif Khan Ankur, Md. Mujibur Rahman

Abstract:

Heat Index describes the combined effect of temperature and humidity on human body. This combined effect is causing a serious threat to the health of people because of the changing climate. With climate change, climate variability and thus the occurrence of heat waves is likely to increase. Evidence is emerging from the analysis of long-term climate records of an increase in the frequency and duration of extreme temperature events in all over Bangladesh particularly during summer. Summer season has prolonged while winters have become short in Bangladesh. Summers have become hotter and thus affecting the lives of the people engaged in outdoor activities during scorching sun hours. In 2003 around 62 people died due to heat wave across the country. In this paper Bangladesh is divided in four regions and heat index has been calculated from 1960 to 2010 in these regions of the country. The aim of this paper is to identify the spots most vulnerable to heat strokes and heat waves due to high heat index. The results show upward trend of heat index in almost all the regions of Bangladesh. The highest increase in heat index value has been observed in areas of South-west region and North-west Region. The highest change in average heat index has been found in Jessore by almost 5.50C.

Keywords: Anomaly, Heat index, Relative humidity, Temperature

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Authors: Sumiko Anno, Keiji Imaoka, Takeo Tadono, Tamotsu Igarashi, Subramaniam Sivaganesh, Selvam Kannathasan, Vaithehi Kumaran, Sinnathamby Noble Surendran

Abstract:

Dengue outbreaks are affected by biological, ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors that vary over time and space. These factors have been examined separately and still require systematic clarification. The present study aimed to investigate the spatial-temporal clustering relationships between these factors and dengue outbreaks in the northern region of Sri Lanka. Remote sensing (RS) data gathered from a plurality of satellites were used to develop an index comprising rainfall, humidity and temperature data. RS data gathered by ALOS/AVNIR-2 were used to detect urbanization, and a digital land cover map was used to extract land cover information. Other data on relevant factors and dengue outbreaks were collected through institutions and extant databases. The analyzed RS data and databases were integrated into geographic information systems, enabling temporal analysis, spatial statistical analysis and space-time clustering analysis. Our present results showed that increases in the number of the combination of ecological factor and socio-economic and demographic factors with above the average or the presence contribute to significantly high rates of space-time dengue clusters.

Keywords: ALOS/AVNIR-2, Dengue, Space-time clustering analysis, Sri Lanka.

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Authors: José Neves, M. Rosário Martins, Fátima Candeias, Diana Ferreira, Sílvia Arantes, Júlio Cruz-Morais, Guida Gomes, Joaquim Macedo, António Abelha, Henrique Vicente

Abstract:

Some plants of genus Schinus have been used in the folk medicine as topical antiseptic, digestive, purgative, diuretic, analgesic or antidepressant, and also for respiratory and urinary infections. Chemical composition of essential oils of S. molle and S. terebinthifolius had been evaluated and presented high variability according with the part of the plant studied and with the geographic and climatic regions. The pharmacological properties, namely antimicrobial, anti-tumoural and anti-inflammatory activities are conditioned by chemical composition of essential oils. Taking into account the difficulty to infer the pharmacological properties of Schinus essential oils without hard experimental approach, this work will focus on the development of a decision support system, in terms of its knowledge representation and reasoning procedures, under a formal framework based on Logic Programming, complemented with an approach to computing centered on Artificial Neural Networks and the respective Degree-of-Confidence that one has on such an occurrence.

Keywords: Artificial neuronal networks, essential oils, knowledge representation and reasoning, logic programming, Schinus molle L, Schinus terebinthifolius raddi.

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Authors: S. Z. Sayed Hassen

Abstract:

The load frequency control problem of power systems has attracted a lot of attention from engineers and researchers over the years. Increasing and quickly changing load demand, coupled with the inclusion of more generators with high variability (solar and wind power generators) on the network are making power systems more difficult to regulate. Frequency changes are unavoidable but regulatory authorities require that these changes remain within a certain bound. Engineers are required to perform the tricky task of adjusting the control system to maintain the frequency within tolerated bounds. It is well known that to minimize frequency variations, a large proportional feedback gain (speed regulation constant) is desirable. However, this improvement in performance using proportional feedback comes about at the expense of a reduced stability margin and also allows some steady-state error. A conventional PI controller is then included as a secondary control loop to drive the steadystate error to zero. In this paper, we propose a robust controller to replace the conventional PI controller which guarantees performance and stability of the power system over the range of variation of the speed regulation constant. Simulation results are shown to validate the superiority of the proposed approach on a simple single-area power system model.

Keywords: Robust control, power system, integral action, minimax LQG control.

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