Search results for: flood mitigation

Authors: Rosmina Bustami, Charles Bong, Darrien Mah, Afnie Hamzah, Marina Patrick

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The distressing flood scenarios that occur in recent years at the surrounding areas of Sarawak River have left damages of properties and indirectly caused disruptions of productive activities. This study is meant to reconstruct a 100-year flood event that took place in this river basin. Sarawak River Subbasin was chosen and modeled using the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling approach using InfoWorks River Simulation (RS), in combination with Geographical Information System (GIS). This produces the hydraulic response of the river and its floodplains in extreme flooding conditions. With different parameters introduced to the model, correlations of observed and simulated data are between 79% – 87%. Using the best calibrated model, flood mitigation structures are imposed along the sub-basin. Analysis is done based on the model simulation results. Result shows that the proposed retention ponds constructed along the sub-basin provide the most efficient reduction of flood by 34.18%.

Keywords: Flood, Flood mitigation structure, InfoWorks RS, Retention pond, Sarawak River sub-basin.

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Authors: Lara L. Barbosa, Marco Imperadori

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This article aims to define strategies for applying innovative technology so that housing in regions subject to floods can be more resilient to disasters. Based on case studies of seven amphibious and floating projects, it proposes design guidelines to implement this practice. Its originality consists of transposing a technology developed for fluctuating buildings for housing types in regions affected by flood disasters. The proposal could be replicated in other contexts, endowing vulnerable households with ability to resist rising water levels after a flood. The results of this study are design guidelines to adapt for houses in areas subject to flooding, contributing to the mitigation of this disaster.

Keywords: Amphibious housing, disaster resilience, floating architecture, flood mitigation, post-disaster reconstruction.

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Authors: Ali Heidari

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This paper presents the principles for improving flood mitigation operation in multipurpose dams and maximizing reservoir performance during flood occurrence with a focus on the real-time operation of gated spillways. The criteria of operation include the safety of dams during flood management, minimizing the downstream flood risk by decreasing the flood hazard and fulfilling water supply and other purposes of the dam operation in mid and long terms horizons. The parameters deemed to be important include flood inflow, outlet capacity restrictions, downstream flood inundation damages, economic revenue of dam operation, and environmental and sedimentation restrictions. A simulation model was used to determine the real-time release of the Dez Dam located in the Dez Rivers in southwest Iran, considering the gate regulation curves for the gated spillway. The results of the simulation model show that there is a possibility to improve the current procedures used in the real-time operation of the dams, particularly using gate regulation curves and early flood forecasting system results. The Dez Dam operation data show that in one of the best flood control records, 17% of the total active volume and flood control pool of the reservoir have not been used in decreasing the downstream flood hazard despite the availability of a flood forecasting system.

Keywords: Dam operation, flood control criteria, Dez Dam, Iran.

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Authors: Chia Lin Chan, Yi Ju Yang, Chih Chin Yang

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Rainfall records of rainfall station including the rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research. When rainfall frequency of one hour rainfall duration is more than 100-year frequency which exceeds the flood detention standard of 20-year frequency for the flood detention pond, the flood peak duration of flood detention pond is 1.7 hours at most even though the flood detention pond with maximum drainage potential about 15.0 m3/s of pumping system is constructed. If the rainfall peak current is more than maximum drainage potential, the flood peak duration of flood detention pond is about 1.9 hours at most. The flood detention pond is the key factor of stable drainage control and flood prevention. The critical factors of flood disaster is not only rainfall mass, but also rainfall frequency of heavy storm in different rainfall duration and flood detention frequency of flood detention system.

Keywords: Rainfall frequency, Rainfall duration, Rainfallintensity, Flood detention capability

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Authors: Siti Murniningsih, Evi Anggraheni

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Various infrastructures such as dams, flood control dams and reservoirs have been developed in the 19th century until the 20th century. These infrastructures are very effective in controlling the river flows and in preventing inundation in the urban area prone to flooding. Flooding in the urban area often brings large impact, affecting every aspect of life and also environment. Ciliwung is one of the rivers allegedly contributes to the flooding problems in Jakarta; various engineering work has been done in Ciliwung river to help controlling the flooding. One of the engineering work is to build Ciawi Dam and Sukamahi Dam. In this research, author is doing the flood calculation with Nakayasu Method, while the previous flooding in that case study is computed using Level Pool Routine. The effectiveness of these dams can be identified by using flood simulation of existing condition and compare it to the flood simulation after the dam construction. The final goal of this study is to determine the effectiveness of flood mitigation infrastructure located at upstream area in reducing the volume of flooding in Jakarta.

Keywords: Effectiveness, flood simulation, infrastructure flooding, level pool routine.

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Authors: Douangmala Kounsana, Toru Takahashi

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In recent years, the number of natural disasters in Laos has a trend to increase, especially the disaster of flood. To make a flood plan risk management in the future, it is necessary to understand and analyze the characteristics of the rainfall and Mekong River level data. To reduce the damage, this paper presents the flood risk analysis in Luangprabang and Vientiane, the prefecture of Laos. In detail, the relationship between the rainfall and the Mekong River level has evaluated and appropriate countermeasure for flood was discussed.

Keywords: Lao flood, Mekong river, rainfall, risk management.

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Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M.L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano

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Flash Floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Early Warning Systems, Flash Flood, Natural Hazard.

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Authors: S. Pullteap, M. Pathomsuriyaporn

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In this article, a study of employee’s opinion to the factors that affect to the flood preventive and the corrective action plan in an electronic industry at the Sharp Manufacturing (Thailand) Co., Ltd. has been investigated. The surveys data of 175 workers and supervisors have, however, been selected for data analysis. The results is shown that the employees emphasize about the needs in a subsidy at the time of disaster at high levels of 77.8%, as the plan focusing on flood prevention of the rehabilitation equipment is valued at the intermediate level, which is 79.8%. Demonstration of the hypothesis has found that the different education levels has thus been affected to the needs factor at the flood disaster time. Moreover, most respondents give priority to flood disaster risk management factor. Consequently, we found that the flood prevention plan is valued at high level, especially on information monitoring, which is 93.4% for the supervisor item. The respondents largely assume that the flood will have impacts on the industry, up to 80%, thus to focus on flood management plans is enormous.

Keywords: Flood prevention plan, flood event, electronic industrial plant, disaster, risk management.

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Authors: S. Zappacosta, C. Bove, M. Carmela Marinelli, P. di Lauro, K. Spasenovic, L. Ostano, G. Aiello, M. Pietrosanto

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This paper proposes a neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (Piani Assetto Idrogeologico, acronimed as PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale), encoding four different increasing flood hazard levels. The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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Authors: Ranjan Sarukkalige, Joseph Sanjaya Ma

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Flood management is one of the important fields in urban storm water management. Floods are influenced by the increase of huge storm event, or improper planning of the area. This study mainly provides the flood protection in four stages; planning, flood event, responses and evaluation. However it is most effective then flood protection is considered in planning/design and evaluation stages since both stages represent the land development of the area. Structural adjustments are often more reliable than nonstructural adjustments in providing flood protection, however structural adjustments are constrained by numerous factors such as political constraints and cost. Therefore it is important to balance both adjustments with the situation. The technical decisions provided will have to be approved by the higher-ups who have the power to decide on the final solution. Costs however, are the biggest factor in determining the final decision. Therefore this study recommends flood protection system should have been integrated and enforces more in the early stages (planning and design) as part of the storm water management plan. Factors influencing the technical decisions provided should be reduced as low as possible to avoid a reduction in the expected performance of the proposed adjustments.

Keywords: Urban Flood, flood protection, water management, storm water, cost,

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.

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Authors: Aditi Bhadra, Sutapa Choudhury, Daita Kar

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Flood zoning studies have become more efficient in recent years because of the availability of advanced computational facilities and use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In the present study, flood inundated areas were mapped using GIS for the Dikrong river basin of Arunachal Pradesh, India, corresponding to different return periods (2, 5, 25, 50, and 100 years). Further, the developed inundation maps corresponding to 25, 50, and 100 year return period floods were compared to corresponding maps developed by conventional methods as reported in the Brahmaputra Board Master Plan for Dikrong basin. It was found that, the average deviation of modelled flood inundation areas from reported map inundation areas is below 5% (4.52%). Therefore, it can be said that the modelled flood inundation areas matched satisfactorily with reported map inundation areas. Hence, GIS techniques were proved to be successful in extracting the flood inundation extent in a time and cost effective manner for the remotely located hilly basin of Dikrong, where conducting conventional surveys is very difficult.

Keywords: Flood hazard mapping, GIS, inundation area, return period.

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Authors: Mohamad Sukeri Khalid, Che Su Mustaffa, Mohd Najib Marzuki, Mohd Fo’ad Sakdan, Sapora Sipon, Mohd Taib Ariffin, Shazwani Shafiai

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This paper describes the issues relating to the role of the flash flood early warning system provided by the Malaysian Government to the communities in Malaysia, specifically during the flash flood disaster in the Cameron Highlands, Malaysia. Normally, flash flood disasters can occur as a result of heavy rainfall in an area, and that water may possibly cause flooding via streams or narrow channels. The focus of this study is the flash flood disaster which occurred on 23 October 2013 in the Cameron Highlands, and as a result the Sungai Bertam overflowed after the release of water from the Sultan Abu Bakar Dam. This release of water from the dam caused flash flooding which led to damage to properties and also the death of residents and livestock in the area. Therefore, the effort of this study is to identify the perceptions of the flash flood victims on the role of the flash flood early warning system. For the purposes of this study, data were gathered through face-to-face interviews from those flood victims who were willing to participate in this study. This approach helped the researcher to glean in-depth information about their feelings and perceptions of the role of the flash flood early warning system offered by the government. The data were analysed descriptively and the findings show that the respondents of 22 flood victims believe strongly that the flash flood early warning system was confusing and dysfunctional, and communities had failed to response positively to it. Therefore, most of the communities were not well prepared for the releasing of water from the dam which caused property damage, and 3 people were killed in the Cameron Highland flash flood disaster.

Keywords: Communities affected, disaster management, early warning system, flash flood disaster.

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Authors: Avelino Mondlane, Karin Hansson, Oliver Popov, Xavier Muianga

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This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.

Keywords: ICT, KM, scenario planning, backcasting and flood risk management.

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Authors: Le Xuan Cau

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Flash flood is occurred in short time rainfall interval: from 1 hour to 12 hours in small and medium basins. Flash floods typically have two characteristics: large water flow and big flow velocity. Flash flood is occurred at hill valley site (strip of lowland of terrain) in a catchment with large enough distribution area, steep basin slope, and heavy rainfall. The risk of flash floods is determined through Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index (GBFFPI). Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) is determined through terrain slope flash flood index, soil erosion flash flood index, land cover flash floods index, land use flash flood index, rainfall flash flood index. Determining GBFFPI, each cell in a map can be considered as outlet of a water accumulation basin. GBFFPI of the cell is determined as basin average value of FFPI of the corresponding water accumulation basin. Based on GIS, a tool is developed to compute GBFFPI using ArcObjects SDK for .NET. The maps of GBFFPI are built in two types: GBFFPI including rainfall flash flood index (real time flash flood warning) or GBFFPI excluding rainfall flash flood index. GBFFPI Tool can be used to determine a high flash flood potential site in a large region as quick as possible. The GBFFPI is improved from conventional FFPI. The advantage of GBFFPI is that GBFFPI is taking into account the basin response (interaction of cells) and determines more true flash flood site (strip of lowland of terrain) while conventional FFPI is taking into account single cell and does not consider the interaction between cells. The GBFFPI Map of QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue is built and exported to Google Earth. The obtained map proves scientific basis of GBFFPI.

Keywords: ArcObjects SDK for .NET, Basin average value of FFPI, Gridded basin flash flood potential index, GBFFPI map.

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Authors: Thanut Kallaka, Ching-Jong Wang

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High level and high velocity flood flows are potentially harmful to bridge piers as evidenced in many toppled piers, and among them the single-column piers were considered as the most vulnerable. The flood flow characteristic parameters including drag coefficient, scouring and vortex shedding are built into a pier-flood interaction model to investigate structural safety against flood hazards considering the effects of local scouring, hydrodynamic forces, and vortex induced resonance vibrations. By extracting the pier-flood simulation results embedded in a neural networks code, two cases of pier toppling occurred in typhoon days were reexamined: (1) a bridge overcome by flash flood near a mountain side; (2) a bridge washed off in flood across a wide channel near the estuary. The modeling procedures and simulations are capable of identifying the probable causes for the tumbled bridge piers during heavy floods, which include the excessive pier bending moments and resonance in structural vibrations.

Keywords: Bridge piers, Neural networks, Scour depth, Structural safety, Vortex shedding

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Authors: Jaturong Som-ard

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The heavy rainfall from 3rd to 22th January 2017 had swamped much area of Ranot district in southern Thailand. Due to heavy rainfall, the district was flooded which had a lot of effects on economy and social loss. The major objective of this study is to detect flooding extent using Sentinel-1A data and identify a number of damaged buildings over there. The data were collected in two stages as pre-flooding and during flood event. Calibration, speckle filtering, geometric correction, and histogram thresholding were performed with the data, based on intensity spectral values to classify thematic maps. The maps were used to identify flooding extent using change detection, along with the buildings digitized and collected on JOSM desktop. The numbers of damaged buildings were counted within the flooding extent with respect to building data. The total flooded areas were observed as 181.45 sq.km. These areas were mostly occurred at Ban khao, Ranot, Takhria, and Phang Yang sub-districts, respectively. The Ban khao sub-district had more occurrence than the others because this area is located at lower altitude and close to Thale Noi and Thale Luang lakes than others. The numbers of damaged buildings were high in Khlong Daen (726 features), Tha Bon (645 features), and Ranot sub-district (604 features), respectively. The final flood extent map might be very useful for the plan, prevention and management of flood occurrence area. The map of building damage can be used for the quick response, recovery and mitigation to the affected areas for different concern organization.

Keywords: Flooding extent, Sentinel-1A data, JOSM desktop, damaged buildings.

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Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Akira Yano, Nishiyama Soichi

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This paper presents an alternate approach that uses artificial neural network to simulate the flood level dynamics in a river basin. The algorithm was developed in a decision support system environment in order to enable users to process the data. The decision support system is found to be useful due to its interactive nature, flexibility in approach and evolving graphical feature and can be adopted for any similar situation to predict the flood level. The main data processing includes the gauging station selection, input generation, lead-time selection/generation, and length of prediction. This program enables users to process the flood level data, to train/test the model using various inputs and to visualize results. The program code consists of a set of files, which can as well be modified to match other purposes. This program may also serve as a tool for real-time flood monitoring and process control. The running results indicate that the decision support system applied to the flood level seems to have reached encouraging results for the river basin under examination. The comparison of the model predictions with the observed data was satisfactory, where the model is able to forecast the flood level up to 5 hours in advance with reasonable prediction accuracy. Finally, this program may also serve as a tool for real-time flood monitoring and process control.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Neural Network, Flood Level

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Authors: Boualem El Kechebour, Djilali Benouar

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The objective of this work is to present a expertise on flooding hazard analysis and how to reduce the risk. The analysis concerns the disaster induced by the flood on November 10/11, 2001 in the Bab El Oued district of the city of Algiers.The study begins by an expertise of damages in related with the urban environment and the history of the urban growth of the site. After this phase, the work is focalized on the identification of the existing correlations between the development of the town and its vulnerability. The final step consists to elaborate the interpretations on the interactions between the urban growth, the sewerage network and the vulnerability of the urban system.In conclusion, several recommendations are formulated permitting the mitigation of the risk in the future. The principal recommendations concern the new urban operations and the existing urbanized sites.

Keywords: urban growth, sewerage network, vulnerability of town, flooding risk, mitigation

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

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Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

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The climatic condition over Indian region is highly dependent on monsoon. India receives maximum amount of rainfall during southwest monsoon. Indian economy is highly dependent on agriculture. The presence of flood and drought years influenced the total cultivation system as well as the economy of the country as Indian agricultural systems is still highly dependent on the monsoon rainfall. The present study has been planned to investigate the flood and drought years for the north-west Himalayan region from 1951 to 2014 by using area average Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data. For this investigation the Normalized index (NI) has been utilized to find out whether the particular year is drought or flood. The data have been extracted for the north-west Himalayan (NWH) region states namely Uttarakhand (UK), Himachal Pradesh (HP) and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) to find out the rainy season average rainfall for each year, climatological mean and the standard deviation. After calculation it has been plotted by the diagrams (or graphs) to show the results- some of the years associated with drought years, some are flood years and rest are neutral. The flood and drought years can also relate with the large-scale phenomena El-Nino and La-Lina.

Keywords: Indian Meteorological Department, Rainfall, Normalized index, Flood, Drought, NWH.

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

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The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of a high performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice River catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: Flood prediction process, High performance computing, Online flood prediction system, Parallelization.

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Authors: Min Min Swe Zin

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This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.

Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.

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Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

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At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. This finding needs to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: Floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier.

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Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

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Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding, while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: Flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors.

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Authors: M. Irannezhad, E. H. N. Gashti, U. Moback, B. Kløve

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Climate change would cause mean sea level to rise +1 m by 2100. To prevent coastal floods resulting from the sea level rising, different flood control structures have been built, with acceptable protection levels. Gothenburg with the River Göta älv located on the southwest coast of Sweden is a vulnerable city to the accelerated rises in mean sea level. We evaluated using a sea barrage in the River Göta älv to protect Gothenburg during this century. The highest sea level was estimated to 2.95 m above the current mean sea level by 2100. To verify flood protection against such high sea levels, both barriers have to be closed. To prevent high water level in the River Göta älv reservoir, the barriers would be open when the sea level is low. The suggested flood control structures would successfully protect the city from flooding events during this century.

Keywords: Climate change, Flood control structures, Gothenburg, Sea level rising, Water level model.

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Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Ioannis Nikolaou

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On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece’s deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs’ resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioural responses and experiences, can feed into: a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: Flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organisational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study.

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

Abstract:

Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. It is difficult to find analytical solution of these non-linear equations. Hence, in this paper verification of the finite element model has been carried out against available numerical predictions and field data. The results of the model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29km at both sites (15km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400km downstream in the Indus River from Sukkur barrage of Sindh, Pakistan, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed the daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for flood warnings in advance.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, Flood Forecasting, HEC-RAS, Indus river.

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Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

Abstract:

Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.

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