Search results for: weed infestation forecast

Authors: Sahar Heidary, Ramin Ghasemi Shayan

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The overall goal Monte Carlo N-atom radioactivity transference PC program (MCNP4C) was done for the regeneration of x-ray groups in diagnostic radiology and mammography. The electrons were transported till they slow down and stopover in the target. Both bremsstrahlung and characteristic x-ray creation were measured in this study. In this issue, the x-ray spectra forecast by several computational models recycled in the diagnostic radiology and mammography energy kind have been calculated by appraisal with dignified spectra and their outcome on the scheming of absorbed dose and effective dose (ED) told to the adult ORNL hermaphroditic phantom quantified. This comprises practical models (TASMIP and MASMIP), semi-practical models (X-rayb&m, X-raytbc, XCOMP, IPEM, Tucker et al., and Blough et al.), and Monte Carlo modeling (EGS4, ITS3.0, and MCNP4C). Images got consuming synchrotron radiation (SR) and both screen-film and the CR system were related with images of the similar trials attained with digital mammography equipment. In sight of the worthy feature of the effects gained, the CR system was used in two mammographic inspections with SR. For separately mammography unit, the capability acquiesced bilateral mediolateral oblique (MLO) and craniocaudal(CC) mammograms attained in a woman with fatty breasts and a woman with dense breasts. Referees planned the common groups and definite absences that managed to a choice to miscarry the part that formed the scientific imaginings.

Keywords: mammography, monte carlo, effective dose, radiology

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: ZeinolAbedin Rahmani, Marzieh Evazi Borazjani, Nooshin Salehi

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Organizations are increasingly facing changes and developments scientific, technological, social, cultural changes among these organizations those ones are reckoned successful and effective that in addition to coordinating the development of modern society can forecast future changes and be able to accommodate these changes in order to create favorable developments to build a better future. But we can change that with the changes that occur in the organization of the program it will distinguish. Today's organizations need leaders that change and grow them have to survive. In fact, without transformational managers and leaders, it is certainly difficult to create changes in organizations. Both private and public organizations need to increase knowledge and awareness of the cause widespread changes in the structure, culture and practice for the viability and sustainability of life and growth and development. By now, different signs have determined different causes for a suitable function of employees. However, the important thing is that the commitment of the employees to their organization has always been very important. Since the decrease of organization commitment causes the high rate of absenteeism, turnover intentions, and even to reduce the impact of health staff. and these factors prevent organizations from achieving its goals. If organizations want to retain staff, the organization must find a way to be happy and continue their work with commitment, motivation, and willingness. So here is the need for strong leaders, analysts, creative and transformational upper ranks more than ever is felt. The aim of this study is to revise history, the leadership style of managers shipbuilding company by using the MLQ model.

Keywords: leadership style, managers, organizational, manufacturing company, sustainability of life

Procedia PDF Downloads 462

Authors: Fatima Muhammad Abdulkadir, D. B. Maikaje, Y. A. Umar

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A study conducted to determine cercariae diversity and prevalence of trematode infection in freshwater snails from six freshwater bodies selected by systematic random sampling in Kaduna State was carried from January 2013 to December 2013. Freshwater snails and cercariae harvested from the study sites were morphologically identified. A total of 23,823 freshwater snails were collected from the six freshwater bodies: Bagoma dam, Gimbawa dam, Kangimi dam, Kubacha dam, Manchok water intake and Saminaka water intake. The observed freshwater snail species were: Melanoides tuberculata, Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Bulinus globosus, Lymnaea natalensis, Physa sp., Cleopatra bulimoides, Bellamya unicolor and Lanistes varicus. The freshwater snails were exposed to artificial bright light from a 100 Watt electric bulb in the laboratory to induce cercarial shedding. Of the total freshwater snails collected, 10.55% released one or more types of cercariae. Seven morphological types of cercariae were shed by six freshwater snail species namely: Brevifurcate-apharyngeate distome, Amphistome, Gymnocephalus, Longifurcate-pharyngeate monostome, Longifurcate-pharyngeate distome, Echinostome and Xiphidio cercariae. Infection was monotype in most of the freshwater snails collected; however, Physa species presented a mixed infection with Gymnocephalus and Longifurcate-pharyngeate distome cercariae. B. globosus and B. pfeifferi were the most preferred intermediate hosts with the prevalence of 13.48% and 13.46%, respectively. The diversity and prevalence of cercariae varied among the six freshwater bodies with Manchok water intake having the highest infestation (14.3%) and the least recorded in Kangimi dam (3.9%). There was a correlation trend between the number of freshwater snails and trematode infection with Manchok exhibiting the highest and Bagoma none. The highest cercarial diversity was observed in B. pfeifferi and B. globosus with four morphotypes each, and the lowest was in M. tuberculata with one morphotype. The general distribution of freshwater snails and the trematode cercariae they shed suggests the risk of human and animals to trematodiasis in Manchok community. Public health education to raise awareness on individual and communal action that may control snail breeding sites, prevent transmission and provide access to treatment should be intensified.

Keywords: Cercariae, diversity, freshwater snails, prevalence, trematodiasis

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: Nadezhda Kvatashidze

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The International Accounting Standards Board updated the conceptual framework for financial reporting. The main reason behind it is to resolve the tasks of the accounting, which are caused by the market development and business-transactions of a new economic content. Also, the investors call for higher transparency of information and responsibility for the results in order to make a more accurate risk assessment and forecast. All these make it necessary to further develop the conceptual framework for financial reporting so that the users get useful information. The market development and certain shortcomings of the conceptual framework revealed in practice require its reconsideration and finding new solutions. Some issues and concepts, such as disclosure and supply of information, its qualitative characteristics, assessment, and measurement uncertainty had to be supplemented and perfected. The criteria of recognition of certain elements (assets and liabilities) of reporting had to be updated, too and all this is set out in the updated edition of the conceptual framework for financial reporting, a comprehensive collection of concepts underlying preparation of the financial statement. The main objective of conceptual framework revision is to improve financial reporting and development of clear concepts package. This will support International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to set common “Approach & Reflection” for similar transactions on the basis of mutually accepted concepts. As a result, companies will be able to develop coherent accounting policies for those transactions or events that are occurred from particular deals to which no standard is used or when standard allows choice of accounting policy.

Keywords: conceptual framework, measurement basis, measurement uncertainty, neutrality, prudence, stewardship

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Admire Isaac Tichafa Shayanowako, Mark Laing, Hussein Shimelis

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Striga asiatica is among the leading abiotic constraints to maize production under small-holder farming communities in southern African. However, confirmed sources of resistance to the parasitic weed are still limited. Conventional breeding programmes have been progressing slowly due to the complex nature of the inheritance of Striga resistance, hence there is a need for more innovative approaches. This study aimed to achieve partial resistance as well as to breed for compatibility with Fusarium oxysporum fsp strigae, a soil fungus that is highly specific in its pathogenicity. The agar gel and paper roll assays in conjunction with a glass house pot trial were done to select genotypes based on their potential to stimulate germination of Striga and to test the efficacy of Fusarium oxysporum as a biocontrol agent. Results from agar gel assays showed a moderate to high potential in the release of Strigalactones among the 33 OPVs. Maximum Striga germination distances from the host root of 1.38 cm and up to 46% germination were observed in most of the populations. Considerable resistance was observed in a landrace ‘8lines’ which had the least Striga germination percentage (19%) with a maximum distance of 0.93 cm compared to the resistant check Z-DPLO-DTC1 that had 23% germination at a distance of 1.4cm. The number of fusarium colony forming units significantly deferred (P < 0.05) amongst the genotypes growing between germination papers. The number of crown roots, length of primary root and fresh weight of shoot and roots were highly correlated with concentration of fusarium macrospore counts. Pot trials showed significant differences between the fusarium coated and the uncoated treatments in terms of plant height, leaf counts, anthesis-silks intervals, Striga counts, Striga damage rating and Striga vigour. Striga emergence counts and Striga flowers were low in fusarium treated pots. Plants in fusarium treated pots had non-significant differences in height with the control treatment. This suggests that foxy 2 reduces the impact of Striga damage severity. Variability within fusarium treated genotypes with respect to traits under evaluation indicates the varying degree of compatibility with the biocontrol.

Keywords: maize, Striga asiaitca, resistance, compatibility, F. oxysporum

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Adesoji Tunbosun Jaiyeola, Josiah Adeyemo

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Sediment yield can be considered to be the total sediment load that leaves a drainage basin. The knowledge of the quantity of sediments present in a river at a particular time can lead to better flood capacity in reservoirs and consequently help to control over-bane flooding. Furthermore, as sediment accumulates in the reservoir, it gradually loses its ability to store water for the purposes for which it was built. The development of hydrological models to forecast the quantity of sediment present in a reservoir helps planners and managers of water resources systems, to understand the system better in terms of its problems and alternative ways to address them. The application of artificial intelligence models and technique to such real-life situations have proven to be an effective approach of solving complex problems. This paper makes an extensive review of literature relevant to the theories and applications of evolutionary algorithms, and most especially genetic programming. The successful applications of genetic programming as a soft computing technique were reviewed in sediment modelling and other branches of knowledge. Some fundamental issues such as benchmark, generalization ability, bloat and over-fitting and other open issues relating to the working principles of GP, which needs to be addressed by the GP community were also highlighted. This review aim to give GP theoreticians, researchers and the general community of GP enough research direction, valuable guide and also keep all stakeholders abreast of the issues which need attention during the next decade for the advancement of GP.

Keywords: benchmark, bloat, generalization, genetic programming, over-fitting, sediment yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Aaditya U. Jhamb

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Due to the current energy crisis that many countries are battling, energy-efficient buildings are the subject of extensive research in the modern technological era because of growing worries about energy consumption and its effects on the environment. The paper explores 8 factors that help determine energy efficiency for a building: (relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area, and glazing area distribution), with Tsanas and Xifara providing a dataset. The data set employed 768 different residential building models to anticipate heating and cooling loads with a low mean squared error. By optimizing these characteristics, machine learning algorithms may assess and properly forecast a building's heating and cooling loads, lowering energy usage while increasing the quality of people's lives. As a result, the paper studied the magnitude of the correlation between these input factors and the two output variables using various statistical methods of analysis after determining which input variable was most closely associated with the output loads. The most conclusive model was the Decision Tree Regressor, which had a mean squared error of 0.258, whilst the least definitive model was the Isotonic Regressor, which had a mean squared error of 21.68. This paper also investigated the KNN Regressor and the Linear Regression, which had to mean squared errors of 3.349 and 18.141, respectively. In conclusion, the model, given the 8 input variables, was able to predict the heating and cooling loads of a residential building accurately and precisely.

Keywords: energy efficient buildings, heating load, cooling load, machine learning models

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Jasmal A. Syamsu, Muhammad Yusuf, Hikmah M. Ali, Mawardi A. Asja, Zulkharnaim

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This study was conducted and aimed in identifying and mapping the pasture as an ecological base of beef cattle. A survey was carried out during a period of April to June 2016, in Suppa, Mattirobulu, the district of Pinrang, South Sulawesi province. The mapping process of grazing area was conducted in several stages; inputting and tracking of data points into Google Earth Pro (version 7.1.4.1529), affirmation and confirmation of tracking line visualized by satellite with a variety of records at the point, a certain point and tracking input data into ArcMap Application (ArcGIS version 10.1), data processing DEM/SRTM (S04E119) with respect to the location of the grazing areas, creation of a contour map (a distance of 5 m) and mapping tilt (slope) of land and land cover map-making. Analysis of land cover, particularly the state of the vegetation was done through the identification procedure NDVI (Normalized Differences Vegetation Index). This procedure was performed by making use of the Landsat-8. The results showed that the topography of the grazing areas of hills and some sloping surfaces and flat with elevation vary from 74 to 145 above sea level (asl), while the requirements for growing superior grass and legume is an altitude of up to 143-159 asl. Slope varied between 0 - > 40% and was dominated by a slope of 0-15%, according to the slope/topography pasture maximum of 15%. The range of NDVI values for pasture image analysis results was between 0.1 and 0.27. Characteristics of vegetation cover of pasture land in the category of vegetation density were low, 70% of the land was the land for cattle grazing, while the remaining approximately 30% was a grove and forest included plant water where the place for shelter of the cattle during the heat and drinking water supply. There are seven types of graminae and 5 types of legume that was dominant in the region. Proportionally, graminae class dominated up 75.6% and legume crops up to 22.1% and the remaining 2.3% was another plant trees that grow in the region. The dominant weed species in the region were Cromolaenaodorata and Lantana camara, besides that there were 6 types of floor plant that did not include as forage fodder.

Keywords: pastoral, ecology, mapping, beef cattle

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Marina Aferiba Tandoh, Elsie Odei

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Peptic Ulcer Disease (PUD) is amongst the commonest gastrointestinal problems that require emergency treatment in order to preserve life. The prevalence of PUD is increasing within the Ghanaian population, deepening the need to identify factors that are associated with its occurrence. This cross-sectional study assessed the nutritional status, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors associated with PUD among patients attending the Out-Patient Department of the Tema General Hospital of Ghana. A food frequency questionnaire and a three-day, 24-hour recall were used to assess the dietary intakes of study participants. A standardized questionnaire was used to obtain information on the participants’ socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle as well as medical history. The data was analyzed using SPSS version 22. The mean age of study participants was 32.8±15.41years. Females were significantly higher (61.4%) than males (38.6%) (p < 0.001). All participants had received some form of education, with tertiary education being the highest (52.6%). The majority of them managed their condition with medications only (86%), while 10.5% managed it with a combination of medications and diet. The rest were either by dietary counseling only (1.8%), or surgery only (1.8%). or herbal medicines (29.3%), which were made from home (7.2%) or bought from a medical store (10.8%). Most of the participants experienced a recurrence of the disease (42.1%). For those who had ever experienced recurrences of the disease, it happened when they ate acidic foods (1.8%), ate bigger portions (1.8%), starved themselves (1.8%), or were stressed (1.8%). Others also had triggers when they took certain medications (1.8%) or ate too much pepper (1.8%). About 49% of the participants were either overweight or obese with a recurrence of PUD (p>0.05). Obese patients had the highest rate of PUD recurrences (41%). Drinking alcohol was significantly associated with the recurrence of PUD (χ2= 5.243, p=0.026). Other lifestyles, such as weed smoking, fasting, and use of herbal medicine and NSAIDs did not have any significant association with the disease recurrence. There was no significant correlation between the various dietary patterns and anthropometric parameters except dietary pattern one (salty snacks, regular soft drinks, milk, sweetened yogurt, ice cream, and cooked vegetables), which had a positive correlation with weight (p=0.002) and BMI (p=0.038). PUD patients should target weight reduction actions and reduce alcohol intake as measures to control the recurrence of the disease. Nutrition Education among this population must be promoted to minimize the recurrence of PUD.

Keywords: Dietary patterns, lifestyle factors, nutritional status, peptic ulcer disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Damian Czubak

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The Białowieża Forest is a very valuable natural area, included in the World Natural Heritage at UNESCO, where, due to infestation by the bark beetle (Ips typographus), norway spruce (Picea abies) have deteriorated. This catastrophic scenario led to an increase in fire danger. This was due to the occurrence of large amounts of dead wood and grass cover, as light penetrated to the bottom of the stands. These factors in a dry state are materials that favour the possibility of fire and the rapid spread of fire. One of the objectives of the study was to monitor the quantitative and qualitative changes of combustible material on the permanent decay plots of spruce stands from 2012-2022. In addition, the size of the area with highly flammable vegetation was monitored and a classification of the stands of the Białowieża Forest by flammability classes was made. The key factor that determines the potential fire hazard of a forest is combustible material. Primarily its type, quantity, moisture content, size and spatial structure. Based on the inventory data on the areas of forest districts in the Białowieża Forest, the average fire load and its changes over the years were calculated. The analysis was carried out taking into account the changes in the health status of the stands and sanitary operations. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of fallen timber and fire load of ground cover used the results of the 2019 and 2021 inventories. Approximately 9,000 circular plots were used for the study. An assessment was made of the amount of potential fuel, understood as ground cover vegetation and dead wood debris. In addition, monitoring of areas with vegetation that poses a high fire risk was conducted using data from 2019 and 2021. All sub-areas were inventoried where vegetation posing a specific fire hazard represented at least 10% of the area with species characteristic of that cover. In addition to the size of the area with fire-prone vegetation, a very important element is the size of the fire load on the indicated plots. On representative plots, the biomass of the land cover was measured on an area of 10 m2 and then the amount of biomass of each component was determined. The resulting element of variability of ground covers in stands was their flammability classification. The classification developed made it possible to track changes in the flammability classes of stands over the period covered by the measurements.

Keywords: classification, combustible material, flammable vegetation, Norway spruce

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Ajab G. Majidi, Bilal Bingölbali, Adem Akpınar

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This study aims to investigate the amount of energy (economic wave energy potential) that can be obtained from the existing wave energy converters in the high wave energy potential region of the Black Sea in terms of wave energy potential and their performance at different depths in the region. The data needed for this purpose were obtained using the calibrated nested layered SWAN wave modeling program version 41.01AB, which was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) winds from 1979 to 2009. The wave dataset at a time interval of 2 hours was accumulated for a sub-grid domain for around Karaburun beach in Arnavutkoy, a district of Istanbul city. The annual sea state characteristic matrices for the five different depths along with a vertical line to the coastline were calculated for 31 years. According to the power matrices of different wave energy converter systems and characteristic matrices for each possible installation depth, the probability distribution tables of the specified mean wave period or wave energy period and significant wave height were calculated. Then, by using the relationship between these distribution tables, according to the present wave climate, the energy that the wave energy converter systems at each depth can produce was determined. Thus, the economically feasible potential of the relevant coastal zone was revealed, and the effect of different depths on energy converter systems is presented. The Oceantic at 50, 75 and 100 m depths and Oyster at 5 and 25 m depths presents the best performance. In the 31-year long period 1998 the most and 1989 is the least dynamic year.

Keywords: annual power production, Black Sea, efficiency, power production performance, wave energy converter

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Maged El-Sayed Mohamed

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Plant tissue culture practices are presented nowadays as the most promising substitute to a whole plant in the terms of secondary metabolites production. They offer the advantages of high production, tunability and they have less effect on plant ecosystems. Lantana camara is a weed, which is common all over the world as an ornamental plant. Weeds can adapt to any type of soil and climate due to their rich cellular machinery for secondary metabolites’ production. This characteristic is found in Lantana camara as a plant of very rich diversity of secondary metabolites with no dominant class of compounds. Aim: This trait has encouraged the author to develop tissue culture experiments for Lantana camara to be a platform for production and manipulation of secondary metabolites through biotransformation. Methodology: The plant was collected in its flowering stage in September 2014, from which explants were prepared from shoot tip, auxiliary bud and leaf. Different types of culture media were tried as well as four phytohormones and their combinations; NAA, 2,4-D, BAP and kinetin. Explants were grown in dark or in 12 hours dark and light cycles at 25°C. A metabolic profile for the produced callus was made and then compared to the whole plant profile. The metabolic profile was made using GC-MS for volatile constituents (extracted by n-hexane) and by HPLC-MS and capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry (CE-MS) for non-volatile constituents (extracted by ethanol and water). Results: The best conditions for the callus induction was achieved using MS media supplied with 30 gm sucrose and NAA/BAP (1:0.2 mg/L). Initiation of callus was favoured by incubation in dark for 20 day. The callus produced under these conditions showed yellow colour, which changed to brownish after 30 days. The rate of callus growth was high, expressed in the callus diameter, which reached to 1.15±0.2 cm in 30 days; however, the induction of callus delayed for 15 days. The metabolic profile for both volatile and non-volatile constituents of callus showed more simple background metabolites than the whole plant with two new (unresolved) peaks in the callus’ nonvolatile constituents’ chromatogram. Conclusion: Lantana camara callus production can be itself a source of new secondary metabolites and could be used for biotransformation studies due to its simple metabolic background, which allow easy identification of newly formed metabolites. The callus production gathered the simple metabolic background with the rich cellular secondary metabolite machinery of the plant, which could be elicited to produce valuable medicinally active products.

Keywords: capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry, gas chromatography, metabolic profile, plant tissue culture

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Nasrin Hosseinzad, Ramin Ghasemi Shayan

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Chemotherapy is the most common procedure in the treatment of advanced cancers but is justsoberlyoperativeand toxic. Nevertheless, the efficiency of chemotherapy is restrictedowing to multiple drug resistance(MDR). Lately, plentiful preclinical experiments have revealedthatPaclitaxel-Curcumin could be an ultimateapproach to converse MDR and synergistically increase their efficiency. The connotationsamongst B-cell-lymphoma2(BCL-2) and multi-drug-resistance-associated-P-glycoprotein(MDR1) consequence of patients forecast the efficiency of paclitaxel-built chemoradiotherapy. There are evidences of the efficacy of paclitaxel in the treatment of surface-transmission of bladder-cell-carcinoma by manipulating bio-adhesive microspheres accomplishedthroughout measured release of drug at urine epithelium. In Genetically-Modified method, muco-adhesive oily constructionoftricaprylin, Tween 80, and paclitaxel group showed slighter toxicity than control in therapeutic dose. Postoperative chemotherapy-Paclitaxel might be more advantageous for survival than adjuvant chemo-radio-therapy, and coulddiminish postoperative complications in cervical cancer patients underwent a radical hysterectomy.HA-Se-PTX(Hyaluronic acid, Selenium, Paclitaxel) nanoparticles could observablyconstrain the proliferation, transmission, and invasion of metastatic cells and apoptosis. Furthermore, they exhibitedvast in vivo anti-tumor effect. Additionally, HA-Se-PTX displayedminor toxicity on mice-chef-organs. Briefly, HA-Se-PTX mightprogress into a respectednano-scale agentinrespiratory cancers. To sum up, Paclitaxel is considered a profitable anti-cancer drug in the treatment and anti-progress symptoms in malignant cancers.

Keywords: cancer, paclitaxel, chemotherapy, tumor

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Vandna Raghuvanshi, Vikrant Thakur, Anupam Jhobta

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Objective: To design HRCT criterion to forecast the threat of pulmonary tuberculosis. Material and methods: This was a prospective study of 69 patients with clinical suspicion of pulmonary tuberculosis. We studied their medical characteristics, numerous separate HRCT-results, and a combination of HRCT findings to foresee the danger for PTB by utilizing univariate and multivariate investigation. Temporary HRCT diagnostic criteria were planned in view of these outcomes to find out the risk of PTB and tested these criteria on our patients. Results: The results of HRCT chest were analyzed, and Rank was given from 1 to 4 according to the HRCT chest findings. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated. Rank 1: Highly suspected PTB. Rank 2: Probable PTB Rank 3: Nonspecific or difficult to differentiate from other diseases Rank 4: Other suspected diseases • Rank 1 (Highly suspected TB) was present in 22 (31.9%) patients, all of them finally diagnosed to have pulmonary tuberculosis. The sensitivity, specificity, and negative likelihood ratio for RANK 1 on HRCT chest was 53.6%, 100%, and 0.43, respectively. • Rank 2 (Probable TB) was present in 13 patients, out of which 12 were tubercular, and 1 was non-tubercular. • The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio of the combination of Rank 1 and Rank 2 was 82.9%, 96.4%, 23.22, and 0.18, respectively. • Rank 3 (Non-specific TB) was present in 25 patients, and out of these, 7 were tubercular, and 18 were non-tubercular. • When all these 3 ranks were considered together, the sensitivity approached 100% however, the specificity reduced to 35.7%. The positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 1.56 and 0, respectively. • Rank 4 (Other specific findings) was given to 9 patients, and all of these were non-tubercular. Conclusion: HRCT is useful in selecting individuals with greater chances of pulmonary tuberculosis.

Keywords: pulmonary, tuberculosis, multivariate, HRCT

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Tim Steinhaus, Christian Beidl

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Urban air quality and climate protection are two major challenges for future mobility systems. Despite the steady reduction of pollutant emissions from vehicles over past decades, local immission load within cities partially still reaches heights, which are considered hazardous to human health. Although traffic-related emissions account for a major part of the overall urban pollution, modeling the exact interaction remains challenging. In this paper, a novel approach for the determination of the emission-immission interaction on the basis of neural network modeling for traffic induced NO2-immission load within a near-traffic hot-spot scenario is presented. In a detailed sensitivity analysis, the significance of relevant influencing variables on the prevailing NO2 concentration is initially analyzed. Based on this, the generation process of the model is described, in which not only environmental influences but also the vehicle fleet composition including its associated segment- and certification-specific real driving emission factors are derived and used as input quantities. The validity of this approach, which has been presented in the past, is re-examined in this paper using updated data on vehicle emissions and recent immission measurement data. Within the framework of a final scenario analysis, the future development of the immission load is forecast for different developments in the vehicle fleet composition. It is shown that immission levels of less than half of today’s yearly average limit values are technically feasible in hot-spot situations.

Keywords: air quality, emission, emission-immission-interaction, immission, NO2, zero impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Sobar M. Johari, Ida Putri Anjarsari

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In the transmission of monetary instrument towards real sector of the economy, Bank Indonesia as monetary authority has developed Islamic Bank Indonesia Certificate (abbreviated as SBIS) as an instrument in Islamic open market operation. One of the monetary transmission channels could take place through financing channel from which the fund is used as the source of banking financing. This study aims to analyse the impact of Islamic monetary instrument towards output or economic growth. Data used in this research is taken from Bank Indonesia and Central Board of Statistics for the period of January 2008 until December 2015. The study employs Granger Causality Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Function (IRF) technique and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) as its analytical methods. The results show that, first, the transmission mechanism of banking financing channel are not linked to output. Second, estimation results of VECM show that SBIS, PUAS, and FIN have significant impact in the long term towards output. When there is monetary shock, output or economic growth could be recovered and stabilized in the short term. FEVD results show that Islamic banking financing contributes 1.33 percent to increase economic growth.

Keywords: Islamic monetary instrument, Islamic banking financing channel, economic growth, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Vipin Kumar Verma, Neeta Sehgal, Om Prakash

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Cyprinus carpio has a wide spread occurrence in the lakes and rivers of Europe and Asia. Heavy losses in natural environment due to anthropogenic activities, including pollution as well as pathogenic diseases have landed this fish in IUCN red list of vulnerable species. The significance of a suitable diet in preserving the health status of fish is widely recognized. In present study, artificial feed supplemented with leaves of two weed plants, Eichhornia crassipes and Ricinus communis were evaluated for their role on the fish immune system. To achieve this objective fish were acclimatized to laboratory conditions (25 ± 1 °C; 12 L: 12D) for 10 days prior to start of experiment and divided into 4 groups: non-challenged (negative control= A), challenged [positive control (B) and experimental (C & D)]. Group A, B were fed with non-supplemented feed while group C & D were fed with feed supplemented with 5% Eichhornia crassipes and 5% Ricinus communis respectively. Supplemented feeds were evaluated for their effect on growth, health, immune system and disease resistance in fish when challenged with Vibrio harveyi. Fingerlings of C. carpio (weight, 2.0±0.5 g) were exposed with fresh overnight culture of V. harveyi through bath immunization (concentration 2 Χ 105) for 2 hours on 10 days interval for 40 days. The growth was monitored through increase in their relative weight. The rate of mortality due to bacterial infection as well as due to effect of feed was recorded accordingly. Immune response of fish was analyzed through differential leucocyte count, percentage phagocytosis and phagocytic index. The effect of V. harveyi on fish organs were examined through histo-pathological examination of internal organs like spleen, liver and kidney. The change in the immune response was also observed through gene expression analysis. The antioxidant potential of plant extracts was measured through DPPH and FRAP assay and amount of total phenols and flavonoids were calculates through biochemical analysis. The chemical composition of plant’s methanol extracts was determined by GC-MS analysis, which showed presence of various secondary metabolites and other compounds. Investigation revealed immuno-modulatory effect of plants, when supplemented with the artificial feed of fish.

Keywords: immuno-modulation, gc-ms, Cyprinus carpio, Eichhornia crassipes, Ricinus communis

Procedia PDF Downloads 455

Authors: Arfan Ali Nagra, Tariq Shahzad, Meshal Alharbi, Khalid Masood Khan, Muhammad Mugees Asif, Taher M. Ghazal, Khmaies Ouahada

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Gene selection is an essential step for the classification of microarray cancer data. Gene expression cancer data (DNA microarray) facilitates computing the robust and concurrent expression of various genes. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) requires simple operators and less number of parameters for tuning the model in gene selection. The selection of a prognostic gene with small redundancy is a great challenge for the researcher as there are a few complications in PSO based selection method. In this research, a new variant of PSO (Self-inertia weight adaptive PSO) has been proposed. In the proposed algorithm, SIW-APSO-ELM is explored to achieve gene selection prediction accuracies. This new algorithm balances the exploration capabilities of the improved inertia weight adaptive particle swarm optimization and the exploitation. The self-inertia weight adaptive particle swarm optimization (SIW-APSO) is used to search the solution. The SIW-APSO is updated with an evolutionary process in such a way that each particle iteratively improves its velocities and positions. The extreme learning machine (ELM) has been designed for the selection procedure. The proposed method has been to identify a number of genes in the cancer dataset. The classification algorithm contains ELM, K- centroid nearest neighbor (KCNN), and support vector machine (SVM) to attain high forecast accuracy as compared to the start-of-the-art methods on microarray cancer datasets that show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: microarray cancer, improved PSO, ELM, SVM, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, turkey

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Authors: Sikhou Drame, Arfang Diamanka

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In Senegal, the fishing sector plays an important role in socio-economic development. However, he is going through enormous difficulties, caused by the scarcity of fish on the Senegalese coast, the overexploitation of fishery resources. Based on this observation, the authorities are betting on the development of aquaculture. It is in this context that the exploration of fish from the highly consumed Sparidae family remains a good solution. Indeed, the Sparidae family has good characteristics for farming at sea. However, parasites can proliferate and destroy the efforts made to cultivate fish in confined areas. the knowledge of these parasites in particular the monogeneans, very specific to the sparidae fishes will allow to better know the bio-ecology of the fishes. Better know the main parasitic monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus of sparidae fish of the genus Pagrus harvested in Senegal. It will first be a question of identifying from the observation of the morpho-anatomical characters, Monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus, branchial parasites collected from three species of host: Pagrus caeruleostictus , Pagrus auriga and Pagrus africanus. Then to evaluate the spatial and temporary distribution of parasitic indices on two Dakar landing sites (Soumbédioune and Yarakh) and finally to determine their specificity. The fish examined were purchased directly from the landing sites in Dakar and then transported to the laboratory where they were identified, then dissected. The gills were examined under a magnifying glass and the monogeneans were harvested, fixed in 70% ethanol and then mounted between slide and coverslip. The identification of the parasites is based on the observation of the morpho-anatomical characters and on the measurements of the sclerified organs of the haptor and the male copulatory organ. In total out of the 90 individuals examined: Pagrus auriga (30), Pagrus africanus (30) and Pagrus caeruleostictus (30), 6 species of monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus (Monogenea, Diplectanidae) are obtained: L. sarculus, L. sigillatus, L.vicinus, L. rastellus, L. africanus n.sp and L. yarakhensis n.sp. Our results show that specimens of small sizes [15-20[cm are the most infested. The values of infestation intensity and abundance are higher in fish from Yarakh and also during the cold season. it is the species Pagrus caeruleostictus which records the highest parasitic loads in the two localities. the majority of the parasites identified have a strict or oioxene specificity. It appears from this study that fish of the genus Pagrus are highly parasitized by monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus with a general prevalence of 87.78%. Each infested fish has an average of 30 monogeneans of the genus Lamellodiscus.

Keywords: monogeneans, Lamellodiscus, Dakar coast, genus Pagrus

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Authors: Farhad Salek, Shahaboddin Resalati

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The production of electric vehicles (EVs) featuring lithium-ion battery technology has substantially escalated over the past decade, demonstrating a steady and persistent upward trajectory. The imminent retirement of electric vehicle (EV) batteries after approximately eight years underscores the critical need for their redirection towards recycling, a task complicated by the current inadequacy of recycling infrastructures globally. A potential solution for such concerns involves extending the operational lifespan of electric vehicle (EV) batteries through their utilization in stationary energy storage systems during secondary applications. Such adoptions, however, require addressing the safety concerns associated with batteries’ knee points and thermal runaways. This paper develops an accurate mathematical model representative of the second-life battery packs from a cell-to-pack scale using an equivalent circuit model (ECM) methodology. Neural network algorithms are employed to forecast the degradation parameters based on the EV batteries' aging history to develop a degradation model. The degradation model is integrated with the ECM to reflect the impacts of the cycle aging mechanism on battery parameters during operation. The developed model is tested under real-life load profiles to evaluate the life span of the batteries in various operating conditions. The methodology and the algorithms introduced in this paper can be considered the basis for Battery Management System (BMS) design and techno-economic analysis of such technologies.

Keywords: second life battery, electric vehicles, degradation, neural network

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Authors: Sterling C. DeVerter

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In recent decades, there has been continually growing concern amongst scholars and political leaders towards the global resurgence of nationalism, particularly in Europe, the United States, and China. However, very few studies have attempted to empirically examine the relationship between religion and nationalism at the level of the individual, and none are known to have done so quantitatively. Building on Tajfel's and Turner's (1978) Social Identity Theory (SIT), and Anderson (1991) and Marx (2003), this study will employ SIT and regression analysis to compare the sources and patterns of nationalistic sentiment among European respondents in eight countries to the average levels of self-reported religiosity, religious participation, age, education, and income levels. Survey reports from the International Social Survey Programme were the primary quantitative data sources. It was hypothesized that the increase in nationalism across Europe follows this same evolution as first identified by Anderson, and is positively correlated to the reduction in reported religiosity. However, this study failed to reject the null, there was no substantial ( < .035) correlation between nationalistic sentiment and any of the measures of religiosity, nor were there any substantial correlations between nationalistic sentiment and either of the three control variables ( < .008). Across all countries examined, it was discovered that inclusionary nationalism has slightly declined (-5.08%), while exclusionary nationalism had increased substantially (+17.25%). The combined trend reflected an overall rise in nationalism across the time period and a forecast that suggests the current levels are also elevated. The primary implications include the demand to readdress the notion of religion and nationalism, and the correlation between the two, as well as the current nationalism trends in terms of support or non-support for future political and social movements.

Keywords: European Union, secularization, nationalism, social identity theory

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Authors: Habtamu Tkubet Ebuy

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Purpose Conventional dynamic energy simulation tools go beyond the static dimension of simplified methods by providing better and more accurate prediction of building performance. However, their ability to forecast actual performance is undermined by a low representation of human interactions. The purpose of this study is to examine the potential benefits of incorporating information on occupant diversity into occupant behavior models used to simulate building performance. The co-simulation of the stochastic behavior of the occupants substantially increases the accuracy of the simulation. Design/methodology/approach In this article, probabilistic models of the "opening and closing" behavior of the window of inhabitants have been developed in a separate multi-agent platform, SimOcc, and implemented in the building simulation, TRNSYS, in such a way that the behavior of the window with the interconnectivity can be reflected in the simulation analysis of the building. Findings The results of the study prove that the application of complex behaviors is important to research in predicting actual building performance. The results aid in the identification of the gap between reality and existing simulation methods. We hope this study and its results will serve as a guide for researchers interested in investigating occupant behavior in the future. Research limitations/implications Further case studies involving multi-user behavior for complex commercial buildings need to more understand the impact of the occupant behavior on building performance. Originality/value This study is considered as a good opportunity to achieve the national strategy by showing a suitable tool to help stakeholders in the design phase of new or retrofitted buildings to improve the performance of office buildings.

Keywords: occupant behavior, co-simulation, energy consumption, thermal comfort

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Authors: Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda, Onyebuchi Iwegbu

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This study investigates the response of human development outcomes to selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. Human development outcomes is measured by human development index while the selected macroeconomic variables are inflation rate, real interest rate, government capital expenditure, real exchange rate, current account balance, and savings. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is employed in examining the response of human development index to the macroeconomic shocks. The result from the forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse-Response analysis reveals that fiscal policy (government capital expenditure) shock is the greatest determinant of human development outcomes. This result reiterates the role which the government plays in improving the welfare of the citizenry. The fiscal policy tool is pivotal in human development which comes in the form of investment in education, health, housing, and infrastructure. Further conclusion drawn from this study is that human development outcome positively and significantly responds to shocks from real interest rate, a monetary policy transmission variable and is felt greatly in the short run period. The policy implication of this study is that if capital budget implementation falls below expectations, human development will be engendered. Hence, efforts should be made to ensure that full implementation and appraisal of government capital expenditure is taken sacrosanct as any shock from such plan, engenders human development outcome.

Keywords: human development outcome, macroeconomic outcomes, structural vector autoregression, SVAR

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Authors: M. Magrini, D. Moroni, G. Palazzese, G. Pieri, D. Azzarelli, A. Spada, L. Fanucci, O. Salvetti

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Railway crossings are complex entities whose optimal management cannot be addressed unless with the help of an intelligent transportation system integrating information both on train and vehicular flows. In this paper, we propose an integrated system named SIMPLE (Railway Safety and Infrastructure for Mobility applied at level crossings) that, while providing unparalleled safety in railway level crossings, collects data on rail and road traffic and provides value-added services to citizens and commuters. Such services include for example alerts, via variable message signs to drivers and suggestions for alternative routes, towards a more sustainable, eco-friendly and efficient urban mobility. To achieve these goals, SIMPLE is organized as a System of Systems (SoS), with a modular architecture whose components range from specially-designed radar sensors for obstacle detection to smart ETSI M2M-compliant camera networks for urban traffic monitoring. Computational unit for performing forecast according to adaptive models of train and vehicular traffic are also included. The proposed system has been tested and validated during an extensive trial held in the mid-sized Italian town of Montecatini, a paradigmatic case where the rail network is inextricably linked with the fabric of the city. Results of the tests are reported and discussed.

Keywords: Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), railway, railroad crossing, smart camera networks, radar obstacle detection, real-time traffic optimization, IoT, ETSI M2M, transport safety

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

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Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

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We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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