Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 361

Search results for: Seasonal Holt-Winters

361 Sales Patterns Clustering Analysis on Seasonal Product Sales Data

Authors: Soojin Kim, Jiwon Yang, Sungzoon Cho


As a seasonal product is only in demand for a short time, inventory management is critical to profits. Both markdowns and stockouts decrease the return on perishable products; therefore, researchers have been interested in the distribution of seasonal products with the aim of maximizing profits. In this study, we propose a data-driven seasonal product sales pattern analysis method for individual retail outlets based on observed sales data clustering; the proposed method helps in determining distribution strategies.

Keywords: clustering, distribution, sales pattern, seasonal product

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360 The Usage of Bridge Estimator for Hegy Seasonal Unit Root Tests

Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar


The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

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359 First Survey of Seasonal Abundance and Daily Activity of Stomoxys calcitrans: In Zaouiet Sousse, the Sahel Area of Tunisia

Authors: Amira Kalifa, Faïek Errouissi


The seasonal changes and the daily activity of Stomoxys calcitrans (Diptera: Muscidae) were examined, using Vavoua traps, in a dairy cattle farm in Zaouiet Sousse, the Sahel area of Tunisia during May 2014 to October 2014. Over this period, a total of 4366 hematophagous diptera were captured and Stomoxys calcitrans was the most commonly trapped species (96.52%). Analysis of the seasonal activity, showed that S.calcitrans is bivoltine, with two peaks: a significant peak is recorded in May-June, during the dry season, and a second peak at the end of October, which is quite weak. This seasonal pattern would depend on climatic factors, particularly the temperature of the manure and that of the air. The activity pattern of Stomoxys calcitrans was diurnal with seasonal variations. The daily rhythm shows a peak between 11:00 am to 15:00 pm in May and between 11:00 am to 17:00 pm in June. These vector flies are important pests of livestock in Tunisia, where they are known as a mechanical vector of several pathogens and have a considerable economic and health impact on livestock. A better knowledge of their ecology is a prerequisite for more efficient control measures.

Keywords: cattle farm, daily rhythm, Stomoxys calcitrans, seasonal activity

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358 Seasonal and Monthly Field Soil Respiration Rate and Litter Fall Amounts of Kasuga-Yama Hill Primeval Forest

Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani


The seasonal (January, April, July and October) and monthly soil respiration rate and the monthly litter fall amounts were examined in the laurel-leaved (B_B-1) and Cryptomeria japonica (B_B-2 and PW) forests in the Kasugayama Hill Primeval Forest (Nara, Japan). The change of the seasonal soil respiration rate corresponded to that of the soil temperature. The soil respiration rate was higher in October when fresh organic matter was supplied in the forest floor than in April in spite of the same temperature. The seasonal soil respiration rate of B_B-1 was higher than that of B_B-2, which corresponded to more numbers of bacteria and fungi counted by the dilution plate method and by the direct count method by microscopy in B_B-1 than that of B_B-2. The seasonal soil respiration rate of B_B-2 was higher than that of PW, which corresponded to more microbial biomass by the direct count method by microscopy in B_B-2 than that of PW. The correlation coefficient with the seasonal soil respiration and the soil temperature was higher than that of the monthly soil respiration. The soil respiration carbon was more than the litter fall carbon. It was suggested that the soil respiration included in the carbon dioxide which was emitted by the plant root and soil animal, or that the litter fall supplied to the forest floor included in animal and plant litter.

Keywords: field soil respiration rate, forest soil, litter fall, mineralization rate

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357 Effect of Seasonal Variation on Two Introduced Columbiformes in Awba Dam Tourism Centre, University of Ibadan, Ibadan

Authors: Kolawole F. Farinloye, Samson O. Ojo


Two Columbiformes species were recently introduced to the newly established Awba Dam Tourism Centre [ADTC], hence there is need to investigate the effect of seasonal variation on these species with respect to hematological composition. Blood samples were obtained from superficial ulna vein of the 128 apparently healthy C. livia and C. guinea into tubes containing EDTA as anticoagulant. Thin blood smears (TBS) were prepared, stained and viewed under microscope. Values of Red Blood Cell (RBC) count, White Blood Cell (WBC) count, cholesterol (CH), Uric Acid (UA), Protein (PR), Mean Corpuscular Volume (MCV), Haemoglobin Content (HB), Blood Volume (BV), Plasma Glucose (PG) and Length/Width (L/W) ratio of red blood cells were assessed. The procedure was carried out on a seasonal basis (wet and dry seasons of 2013-2014). Data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Lymphocyte count for C. livia was F3, 161 = 13.15, while for C. guinea was F3, 178 = 13.15. Heterophil, H/L ratio and Muscle score values for both species were (rs = -0.38, rs = -0.44), (rs = 0.51, rs = 0.31) (4, 3) respectively. Analyses also demonstrated a low WBC to RBC ratio (0.004: 25.3) in both species during the wet season compared to dry season, respectively. L/W varied significantly among sampling seasons i.e. wet (19.1% of BV, 12.6% of BV, 0.1% of BV) and dry (18.9% of BV, 12.7% of BV, 0.08% of BV). The level of HB in wet season (19.20±8.46108) is lower compared to dry season (19.70±8.48762). T-test also showed (wet=15.625, 0.111), (dry=12.125, 0.146) respectively, hence there is no association between species and haematological parameters. Species introduced were found to be haematologically stable. Although there were slight differences in seasonal composition, however this can be attributed to seasonal variation; suggesting little or no effect of seasons on their blood composition.

Keywords: seasonal variation, Columbiformes, Awba Dam tourism centre, University of Ibadan, Ibadan

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356 Non-Autonomous Seasonal Variation Model for Vector-Borne Disease Transferral in Kampala of Uganda

Authors: Benjamin Aina Peter, Amos Wale Ogunsola


In this paper, a mathematical model of malaria transmission was presented with the effect of seasonal shift, due to global fluctuation in temperature, on the increase of conveyor of the infectious disease, which probably alters the region transmission potential of malaria. A deterministic compartmental model was proposed and analyzed qualitatively. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches of the model were considered. The next-generation matrix is employed to determine the basic reproduction number of the model. Equilibrium points of the model were determined and analyzed. The numerical simulation is carried out using Excel Micro Software to validate and support the qualitative results. From the analysis of the result, the optimal temperature for the transmission of malaria is between and . The result also shows that an increase in temperature due to seasonal shift gives rise to the development of parasites which consequently leads to an increase in the widespread of malaria transmission in Kampala. It is also seen from the results that an increase in temperature leads to an increase in the number of infectious human hosts and mosquitoes.

Keywords: seasonal variation, indoor residual spray, efficacy of spray, temperature-dependent model

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355 Energy Performance of Buildings Due to Downscaled Seasonal Models

Authors: Anastasia K. Eleftheriadou, Athanasios Sfetsos, Nikolaos Gounaris


The present work examines the suitability of a seasonal forecasting model downscaled with a very high spatial resolution in order to assess the energy performance and requirements of buildings. The application of the developed model is applied on Greece for a period and with a forecast horizon of 5 months in the future. Greece, as a country in the middle of a financial crisis and facing serious societal challenges, is also very sensitive to climate changes. The commonly used method for the correlation of climate change with the buildings energy consumption is the concept of Degree Days (DD). This method can be applied to heating and cooling systems for a better management of environmental, economic and energy crisis, and can be used as medium (3-6 months) planning tools in order to predict the building needs and country’s requirements for residential energy use.

Keywords: downscaled seasonal models, degree days, energy performance

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354 Two-Dimensional Modeling of Seasonal Freeze and Thaw in an Idealized River Bank

Authors: Jiajia Pan, Hung Tao Shen


Freeze and thaw occurs seasonally in river banks in northern countries. Little is known on how the riverbank soil temperature responds to air temperature changes and how freeze and thaw develops in a river bank seasonally. This study presents a two-dimensional heat conduction model for numerical investigations of seasonal freeze and thaw processes in an idealized river bank. The model uses the finite difference method and it is convenient for applications. The model is validated with an analytical solution and a field case with soil temperature distributions. It is then applied to the idealized river bank in terms of partially and fully saturated conditions with or without ice cover influence. Simulated results illustrate the response processes of the river bank to seasonal air temperature variations. It promotes the understanding of freeze and thaw processes in river banks and prepares for further investigation of frost and thaw impacts on riverbank stability.

Keywords: freeze and thaw, riverbanks, 2D model, heat conduction

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353 Beyond Black Friday: The Value of Collaborative Research on Seasonal Shopping Events and Behavior

Authors: Jasmin H. Kwon , Thomas M. Brinthaupt


There is a general lack of consumer behavior research on seasonal shopping events. Studying these kinds of events is interesting and important for several reasons. First, global shopping opportunities have implications for cross-cultural shopping events and effects on seasonal events in other countries. Second, seasonal shopping events are subject to economic conditions and may wane in popularity, especially with e-commerce options. Third, retailers can expand the success of their seasonal shopping events by taking advantage of cross-cultural opportunities. Fourth, it is interesting to consider how consumers from other countries might take advantage of different countries’ seasonal shopping events. Many countries have seasonal shopping events such as Black Friday. Research on these kinds of events can lead to the identification of cross-cultural similarities and differences in consumer behavior. We compared shopping motivations of college students who did (n=36) and did not (n=81) shop on Cyber Monday. The results showed that the groups did not differ significantly on any of the shopping motivation subscales. The Cyber Monday shoppers reported being significantly more likely to agree than disagree that their online shopping experience was enjoyable and exciting. They were more likely to disagree than agree that their experience was overwhelming. In addition, they agreed that they shopped only for deals, purchased the exact items they wanted, and thought that their efforts were worth it. Finally, they intended to shop again at next year’s Cyber Monday. It appears that there are many positive aspects to online seasonal shopping, independent of one’s typical shopping motivations. Different countries have seasonal events similar to the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping holiday (e.g., Boxing Day, Fukubukuro, China’s Singles Day). In Korea, there is increasing interest in taking advantage of U.S. Black Friday and Cyber Monday opportunities. Government officials are interested in adapting the U.S. holiday to Korean retailers, essentially recreating the Black Friday/Cyber Monday holiday there. Similarly, the Japanese Fukubukuro ('Lucky Bag') holiday is being adapted by other countries such as Korea and the U.S. International shipping support companies are also emerging that help customers to identify and receive products from other countries. U.S. department stores also provide free shipping on international orders for certain items. As these structural changes are occurring and new options for global shopping emerge, the need to understand the role of shoppers’ motivations becomes even more important. For example, the Cyber Monday results are particularly relevant to the new landscape with e-commerce and cross-cultural opportunities, since many of these events involve e-commerce. Within today’s global market, physical location of a retail store is no longer a limitation to growing one’s market share. From a consumer perspective, it is important to investigate how shopping motivations are related to e-commerce seasonal events. From a retail perspective, understanding the shopping motivations of international customers would help retailers to expand and better tailor their seasonal shopping events beyond the boundaries of their own countries. From a collaborative perspective, research on this topic can include interdisciplinary researchers, including those from fashion merchandising, marketing, retailing, and psychology.

Keywords: Black Friday, cross-cultural research, Cyber Monday, seasonal shopping behavior

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352 Annual and Seasonal Variations in Air Quality Index of the National Capital Region, India

Authors: Surinder Deswal, Vineet Verma


Air Quality Index (AQI) is used as a tool to indicate the level of severity and disseminate the information on air pollution to enable the public to understand the health and environmental impacts of air pollutant concentration levels. The annual and seasonal variation of criteria air pollutants concentration based on the National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Programme has been conducted for a period of nine years (2006-2014) using the AQI system. AQI was calculated using IND-AQI methodology and Maximum Operator Concept is applied. An attempt has been made to quantify the variations in AQI on an annual and seasonal basis over a period of nine years. Further, year-wise frequency of occurrence of AQI in each category for all the five stations is analysed, which presents in depth analysis of trends over the period of study. The best air quality was observed in the Noida residential area, followed by Noida industrial area during the study period; whereas, Bulandshahar industrial area and Faridabad residential area were observed to have the worst air quality. A shift in the worst air quality from winter to summer season has also been observed during the study period. Further, the level of Respirable Suspended Particulate Matter was found to be above permissible limit at all the stations. The present study helps in enhancing public awareness and calls for the need of immediate measures to be taken to counter-effect the cause of the increasing level of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality index, annual trends, criteria pollutants, seasonal variation

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351 Post-Harvest Preservation of Mango Fruit Using Freeze and Tray Drying Methods

Authors: O. A. Adeyeye, E. R. Sadiku, Periyar Selvam Sellamuthu, Anand Babu Perumal, Reshma B. Nambiar


Mango is a tropical fruit which is often labelled as ‘super-fruit’ because of its unquantifiable benefits to human beings. However, despite its great importance, mango is a seasonal fruit and only very few off-seasonal cultivars are available in the market for consumption. Therefore, to overcome the seasonal variation and to increase the shelf-life of mango fruits, different drying methods are considered. In this study, freeze drying and tray drying methods were used to preserve two different cultivars of mango from South Africa. Moisture content, total soluble solid, ascorbic acid, total phenol content (TPC), antioxidant activity (DPPH) and organoleptic tests were carried out on the samples before and after drying. The effects of different edible preservatives and selected packaging materials used were analyzed on each sample. The result showed that freeze drying method is the best method of preserving the selected cultivar.

Keywords: postharvest, Mangos, cultivar, total soluble solid, total phenol content, antioxidant

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350 Post Harvest Preservation of Mango Fruit Using Freeze Drying and Tray Drying Methods

Authors: O. A. Adeyeye, E. R. Sadiku, Selvam Sellamuthu Periyar, Babu Perumal Anand, B. Nambiar Reshma


Mango is a tropical fruit which is often labelled as ‘super-fruit’ because of its unquantifiable benefits to human beings. However, despite its great importance, mango is a seasonal fruit, and only very few off-seasonal species are available in the market for consumption. Therefore, in order to overcome the seasonal variation and to increase the shelf-life of mango fruits, different drying methods are considered In this study, freeze drying and tray drying methods were used to preserve two different cultivars of mango from South Africa. Moisture content, total soluble solid, ascorbic acid, total phenol content (TPC), antioxidant activity (DPPH) and organoleptic tests were carried out on the samples before and after drying. The effects of different edible preservatives and selected packaging materials used were analyzed on each sample. The result showed that freeze drying method is the best method of preserving the selected cultivar.

Keywords: postharvest, mangos, cultivar, total soluble solid, total phenol content, antioxidant

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349 Seasonal Variation in 25(OH)D Concentration and Sprint Performance in Elite Athletes with a Spinal Cord Injury

Authors: Robert C. Pritchett, Elizabeth Broad, Kelly L. Pritchett


Individuals a with spinal cord injuries have been suggested to be at risk for a 25(OH)D insufficiency. However, little is known regarding the relationship between seasonal Vitamin D status and performance in a spinally injured athletic population. Purpose: The purpose of this study was: 1) to examine the seasonal change in 25(OH)D concentrations and 2) to determine whether 25(OH)D status impacts athletic performance in US Paralympic athletes. Methods: 25 (OH)D concentrations were measured in 11 outdoor track athletes ( 5 men/6 females), between fall (October/November) and winter(February). Dietary intake and lifestyle habits were assessed via questionnaire, and performance measurements were assessed using a 20meter sprint test. 25(OH)D concentrations were assessed using a blood spot method (ZRT Laboratory). Results: There was no significant change in 25 (OH) D concentrations across seasons (P=0.505; 31 + 6.35 ng/mL, 29 + 8.72 ng/mL (mean + SD) for Fall and Winter, respectively. In the Fall,42% of the athletes had sufficient levels (>32ng/mL), and 58% were insufficient. (20ng/mL -31ng/mL) where as the winter levels dropped with 33% being sufficient and 58% being insufficient and 1% being deficient (<20ng/mL). There was a weak but significant correlation between a change in 25(OH)D concentrations, and change in 20m sprint time (p<0.05; r=0.408). Conclusion: A substantial proportion of elite athletes with an SCI have low vitamin D status. However, results suggest there was little seasonal variation in 25(OH)D status in elite track athletes with an SCI. Furthermore, any change that was observed demonstrated a very weak relationship with a change in performance.

Keywords: 25(oh)d, performance, spinal cord injuries, elite, sprint, concentration

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348 Diversity and Ecology of the Aquatic Avifauna of the Wetland of Sebkhet Bazer Sakhra, South of Setif, Algeria

Authors: Gouga Hadjer, Djerdali Sofia, Benssaci Ettayeb


In order to estimate the evolution of the numbers of the aquatic avifauna and their seasonal variations in Sebkhet of Bazer-Sakhra (Site of the eco-complex wetlands of Setif) a monitoring realized during the period from September 2012 to August 2013 allowed to inventory 54 species are spread over 08 orders, 15 families, 34 genres. To follow the global dynamics and the seasonal distribution of species inventoried at Sebkhet Bazer, an analysis of the variation of the total workforce has been established by ecological indices. The autumn season includes the largest number of birds, it totals 3639 individuals. Accidental species are well represented at the autumn and spring seasons denote the interest of the site with respect to migration passages of aquatic birds. During the fall and spring, the Flamingo and the Belon Shelduck are the most abundant with respectively (500, 883) and (560, 1296) individuals. The ecological analysis of this stand showed us that the highest species richness is recorded in spring, (45 species) and the lowest value is obtained in summer it is 20 species.

Keywords: Sebkhet of BazerSakra, ecology, aquatic avifauna, biodiversity, seasonal evolution, wetland

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347 Identification of Thermally Critical Zones Based on Inter Seasonal Variation in Temperature

Authors: Sakti Mandal


Varying distribution of land surface temperature in an urbanized environment is a globally addressed phenomenon. Usually has been noticed that criticality of surface temperature increases from the periphery to the urban centre. As the centre experiences maximum severity of heat throughout the year, it also represents most critical zone in terms of thermal condition. In this present study, an attempt has been taken to propose a quantitative approach of thermal critical zonation (TCZ) on the basis of seasonal temperature variation. Here the zonation is done by calculating thermal critical value (TCV). From the Landsat 8 thermal digital data of summer and winter seasons for the year 2014, the land surface temperature maps and thermally critical zonation has been prepared, and corresponding dataset has been computed to conduct the overall study of that particular study area. It is shown that TCZ can be clearly identified and analyzed by the help of inter-seasonal temperature range. The results of this study can be utilized effectively in future urban development and planning projects as well as a framework for implementing rules and regulations by the authorities for a sustainable urban development through an environmentally affable approach.

Keywords: thermal critical values (TCV), thermally critical zonation (TCZ), land surface temperature (LST), Landsat 8, Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC)

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346 Seasonal Heat Stress Effect on Cholesterol, Estradiol and Progesterone during Follicular Development in Egyptian Buffalo

Authors: Heba F. Hozyen, Hodallah H. Ahmed, S. I. A. Shalaby, G. E. S. Essawy


Biochemical and hormonal changes that occur in both follicular fluid and blood are involved in the control of ovarian physiology. The present study was conducted on follicular fluid and serum samples obtained from 708 buffaloes. Samples were examined for estradiol, progesterone, and cholesterol concentrations in relation to seasonal changes, ovarian follicular size, and stage of estrous cycle. The obtained results revealed that follicular fluid and serum levels of estradiol, progesterone, and cholesterol were significantly lower during summer and autumn when compared to winter and spring seasons. With the increase in follicular size, the follicular fluid levels of progesterone and cholesterol were significantly decreased, while estradiol levels were significantly increased. Estradiol and progesterone levels were significantly higher in follicular fluid than blood, while cholesterol was significantly lower in follicular fluid than serum. In conclusion, the current study threw a light on the hormonal changes in the follicular fluid and blood under the effect of heat stress which could be related to the low fertility of buffalo in the summer.

Keywords: buffalo, follicular fluid, folliculogenesis, seasonal changes, steroids

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345 The Effects of North Sea Caspian Pattern Index on the Temperature and Precipitation Regime in the Aegean Region of Turkey

Authors: Cenk Sezen, Turgay Partal


North Sea Caspian Pattern Index (NCP) refers to an atmospheric teleconnection between the North Sea and North Caspian at the 500 hPa geopotential height level. The aim of this study is to search for effects of NCP on annual and seasonal mean temperature and also annual and seasonal precipitation totals in the Aegean region of Turkey. The study contains the data that consist of 46 years obtained from nine meteorological stations. To determine the relationship between NCP and the climatic parameters, firstly the Pearson correlation coefficient method was utilized. According to the results of the analysis, most of the stations in the region have a high negative correlation NCPI in all seasons, especially in the winter season in terms of annual and seasonal mean temperature (statistically at significant at the 90% level). Besides, high negative correlation values between NCPI and precipitation totals are observed during the winter season at the most of stations. Furthermore, the NCPI values were divided into two group as NCPI(-) and NCPI(+), and then mean temperature and precipitation total values, which are grouped according to the NCP(-) and NCP(+) phases, were determined as annual and seasonal. During the NCPI(-), higher mean temperature values are observed in all of seasons, particularly in the winter season compared to the mean temperature values under effect of NCP(+). Similarly, during the NCPI(-) in winter season precipitation total values have higher than the precipitation total values under the effect of NCP(+); however, in other seasons there no substantial changes were observed between the precipitation total values. As a result of this study, significant proof is obtained with regards to the influences of NCP on the temperature and precipitation regime in the Aegean region of Turkey.

Keywords: Aegean region, NCPI, precipitation, temperature

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344 Forecasting Container Throughput: Using Aggregate or Terminal-Specific Data?

Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka


We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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343 Performance Analysis of Three Absorption Heat Pump Cycles, Full and Partial Loads Operations

Authors: B. Dehghan, T. Toppi, M. Aprile, M. Motta


The environmental concerns related to global warming and ozone layer depletion along with the growing worldwide demand for heating and cooling have brought an increasing attention toward ecological and efficient Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. Furthermore, since space heating accounts for a considerable part of the European primary/final energy use, it has been identified as one of the sectors with the most challenging targets in energy use reduction. Heat pumps are commonly considered as a technology able to contribute to the achievement of the targets. Current research focuses on the full load operation and seasonal performance assessment of three gas-driven absorption heat pump cycles. To do this, investigations of the gas-driven air-source ammonia-water absorption heat pump systems for small-scale space heating applications are presented. For each of the presented cycles, both full-load under various temperature conditions and seasonal performances are predicted by means of numerical simulations. It has been considered that small capacity appliances are usually equipped with fixed geometry restrictors, meaning that the solution mass flow rate is driven by the pressure difference across the associated restrictor valve. Results show that gas utilization efficiency (GUE) of the cycles varies between 1.2 and 1.7 for both full and partial loads and vapor exchange (VX) cycle is found to achieve the highest efficiency. It is noticed that, for typical space heating applications, heat pumps operate over a wide range of capacities and thermal lifts. Thus, partially, the novelty introduced in the paper is the investigation based on a seasonal performance approach, following the method prescribed in a recent European standard (EN 12309). The overall result is a modest variation in the seasonal performance for analyzed cycles, from 1.427 (single-effect) to 1.493 (vapor-exchange).

Keywords: absorption cycles, gas utilization efficiency, heat pump, seasonal performance, vapor exchange cycle

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342 Effects of Reclamation on Seasonal Dynamic of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus Stoichiometry in Suaeda salsa

Authors: Yajun Qiao, Yaner Yan, Ning Li, Shuqing An


In order to relieve the pressure on a land resource from a huge population, reclamation has occurred in many coastal wetlands. Plants can maintain their elemental composition within normal limits despite the variations of external conditions. Reclamation may affect carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) stoichiometry in the plant to some extent by altering physical and chemical properties of soil in a coastal wetland. We reported the seasonal dynamic of C, N and P stoichiometry in root, stem and leaf of Suaeda salsa (L.) Pall. and in soil between reclamation plots and natural plots. Our results of three-way ANOVA indicated that sampling season always had significant effect on C, N, P concentrations and their ratios; organ had no significant effect on N, P concentration and N:P; plot type had no significant effect on N concentration and C:N. Sampling season explained the most variability of tissue N and P contents, C:N, C:P and N:P, while it’s organ for C using the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method. By independent sample T-test, we found that reclamation affect more on C, N and P stoichiometry of stem than that of root or leaf on the whole. While there was no difference between reclamation plots and natural plots for soil in four seasons. For three organs, C concentration had peak values in autumn and minimum values in spring while N concentration had peak values in spring and minimum values in autumn. For P concentration, three organs all had peak values in spring; however, the root had minimum value in winter, the stem had that in autumn, and leaf had that in summer. The seasonal dynamic of C, N and P stoichiometry in a leaf of Suaeda salsa were much steadier than that in root or stem under the drive of reclamation.

Keywords: nitrogen, phosphorus, reclamation, seasonal dynamic, Suaeda salsa

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341 Forecasting Residential Water Consumption in Hamilton, New Zealand

Authors: Farnaz Farhangi


Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

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340 Assessment of Water Quality of Euphrates River at Babylon Governorate, for Drinking, Irrigation and general, Using Water Quality Index (Canadian Version) (CCMEWQI)

Authors: Amer Obaid Saud


Water quality index (WQI) is considered as an effective tool in categorization of water resources for its quality and suitability for different uses. The Canadian version of water quality index (CCME WQI) which based on the comparison of the water quality parameters to regulatory standards and give a single value to the water quality of a source was applied in this study to assess the water quality of Euphrates river in Iraq at Babylon Governorate north of Baghdad and determine its suitability for aquatic environment (GWQI), drinking water (PWSI) and irrigation(IWQI). Five stations were selected on the river in Babylon (Euphrates River/AL-Musiab, Hindia barrage, two stations at Hilla city and the fifth station at Al-Hshmeya north of Hilla. Fifteen water samples were collected every month during August 2013 to July 2014 at the study sites and analyzed for the physico-chemical parameters like (Temperature, pH, Electrical Conductivity, Total Dissolved Solids(TDS), Total Suspended Solids(TSS), Total Alkalinity, Total Hardness, Calcium and Magnesium Concentration, some of nutrient like Nitrite, Nitrate, Phosphate also the study of concentration of some heavy metals (Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu, Mn, and Cd) in water and comparison of measures to benchmarks such as guidelines and objectives to assess change in water quality. The result of Canadian version of(CCME .WQI) to assess the irrigation water quality (IWQI) of Euphrates river was (83-good) at site one during second seasonal period while the lowest was (66-Fair) in the second station during the fourth seasonal period, the values of potable water supply index (PWSI)that the highest value was (68-Fair) in the fifth site during the second period while the lowest value (42 -Poor) in the second site during the first seasonal period,the highest value for general water quality (GWQI) was (74-Fair) in site five during the second seasonal period, the lowest value (48-Marginal) in the second site during the first seasonal period. It was observed that the main cause of deterioration in water quality was due to the lack of, unprotected river sites ,high anthropogenic activities and direct discharge of industrial effluent.

Keywords: Babylon governorate, Canadian version, water quality, Euphrates river

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339 Long-Term Monitoring and Seasonal Analysis of PM10-Bound Benzo(a)pyrene in the Ambient Air of Northwestern Hungary

Authors: Zs. Csanádi, A. Szabó Nagy, J. Szabó, J. Erdős


Atmospheric aerosols have several important environmental impacts and health effects in point of air quality. Monitoring the PM10-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) could have important environmental significance and health protection aspects. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is the most relevant indicator of these PAH compounds. In Hungary, the Hungarian Air Quality Network provides air quality monitoring data for several air pollutants including BaP, but these data show only the annual mean concentrations and maximum values. Seasonal variation of BaP concentrations comparing the heating and non-heating periods could have important role and difference as well. For this reason, the main objective of this study was to assess the annual concentration and seasonal variation of BaP associated with PM10 in the ambient air of Northwestern Hungary seven different sampling sites (six urban and one rural) in the sampling period of 2008–2013. A total of 1475 PM10 aerosol samples were collected in the different sampling sites and analyzed for BaP by gas chromatography method. The BaP concentrations ranged from undetected to 8 ng/m3 with the mean value range of 0.50-0.96 ng/m3 referring to all sampling sites. Relatively higher concentrations of BaP were detected in samples collected in each sampling site in the heating seasons compared with non-heating periods. The annual mean BaP concentrations were comparable with the published data of the other Hungarian sites.

Keywords: air quality, benzo(a)pyrene, PAHs, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

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338 Role of MGNREGA(s) in Seasonal Labour Migration: Micro Evidence from Telangana State, India

Authors: Vijay Korra


The main focus of this paper is to examine the performance, outcomes and impacts of MGNREGA Scheme in particular on migrant beneficiary households. This article is based on a field survey carried out in 2010 in three randomly selected villages in Mahabubnagar district of Telangana State, India. It was found that majority of the job card holders are only able to get employment/work between 30-60 days and receive wages maximum between Rs.60 to 70 per day wherein wage discrimination was prevalent in line with gender. It concludes by saying that the government sponsored employment programme has indeed given rural poor a sense of hope about livelihood security through guaranteed employment. On the other hand, the scheme is defected in providing full employment days, wages, and thus unable to prevent the working class from migrating to cities/towns in search of employment mainly due to malpractices involved in the implementation of the scheme.

Keywords: MGNREGA(s), labour, employment, wages, livelihood, seasonal migration

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337 Prevalence of Gastrointestinal Nematodes of Farm Animals by Copro-Culture

Authors: Mosaab A. Omar, Mohammad Saleh Al-Aboody


In the present study, examination of 442 faecal samples was performed: 171 from cattle, 128 from buffaloes and 143 from sheep. During the period from May, 2014 to April, 2015, fecal examination showed the infection rate with abomasal nematodes was 30% in cattle, 22.6% in buffaloes, and 31.4% in sheep. Fecal culture gave results of 47.5%, 30%, and 50.3% in cattle, buffaloes and sheep respectively. Seasonal infection with abomasal nematodes as shown by faecal culture in cattle, reveals the highest infection rate is in summer (55.9%), followed by spring (54.1%), autumn (50%), and winter (33.3%). Cooperia spp. is the most prevalent larva in both cattle and buffaloes; Strongyloides papillosus is the most predominant one in sheep. Here we introduce the first study of abomasal worms infection in ruminants in Qena, Egypt. The prevalence is found to be so high among the all examined animals, that we recommend that the authorities apply suitable control programs.

Keywords: haemonchus, ostertagia, seasonal dynamics, floatation

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336 Spatial and Temporal Evaluations of Disinfection By-Products Formation in Coastal City Distribution Systems of Turkey

Authors: Vedat Uyak


Seasonal variations of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs) concentrations were investigated within three distribution systems of a coastal city of Istanbul, Turkey. Moreover, total trihalomethanes and other organics concentration were also analyzed. The investigation was based on an intensive 16 month (2009-2010) sampling program, undertaken during the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. Four THM (chloroform, dichlorobromomethane, chlorodibromomethane, bromoform), and nine HAA (the most commonly occurring one being dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) and trichloroacetic acid (TCAA); other compounds are monochloroacetic acid (MCAA), monobromoacetic acid (MBAA), dibromoacetic acid (DBAA), tribromoacetic acid (TBAA), bromochloroacetic acid (BCAA), bromodichloroacetic acid (BDCAA) and chlorodibromoacetic acid (CDBAA)) species and other water quality and operational parameters were monitored at points along the distribution system between the treatment plant and the system’s extremity. The effects of coastal water sources, seasonal variation and spatial variation were examined. The results showed that THMs and HAAs concentrations vary significantly between treated waters and water at the distribution networks. When water temperature exceeds 26°C in summer, the THMs and HAAs levels are 0.8 – 1.1, and 0.4 – 0.9 times higher than treated water, respectively. While when water temperature is below 12°C in the winter, the measured THMs and HAAs concentrations at the system’s extremity were very rarely higher than 100 μg/L, and 60 μg/L, respectively. The highest THM concentrations occurred in the Buyukcekmece distribution system, with an average total HAA concentration of 92 μg/L. Moreover, the lowest THM levels were observed in the Omerli distribution network, with a mean concentration of 7 μg/L. For HAA levels, the maximum concentrations again were observed in the Buyukcekmece distribution system, with an average total HAA concentration of 57 μg/l. High spatial and seasonal variation of disinfection by-products in the drinking water of Istanbul was attributed of illegal wastewater discharges to water supplies of Istanbul city.

Keywords: disinfection byproducts, drinking water, trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, seasonal variation

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335 Electrolysis Ship for Green Hydrogen Production and Possible Applications

Authors: Julian David Hunt, Andreas Nascimento


Green hydrogen is the most environmental, renewable alternative to produce hydrogen. However, an important challenge to make hydrogen a competitive energy carrier is a constant supply of renewable energy, such as solar, wind and hydropower. Given that the electricity generation potential of these sources vary seasonally and interannually, this paper proposes installing an electrolysis hydrogen production plant in a ship and move the ship to the locations where electricity is cheap, or where the seasonal potential for renewable generation is high. An example of electrolysis ship application is to produce green hydrogen with hydropower from the North region of Brazil and then sail to the Northeast region of Brazil and generate hydrogen using excess electricity from offshore wind power. The electrolysis ship concept is interesting because it has the flexibility to produce green hydrogen using the cheapest renewable electricity available in the market.

Keywords: green hydrogen, electrolysis ship, renewable energies, seasonal variations

Procedia PDF Downloads 52
334 Analysis of Rainfall and Malaria Trends in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Authors: Abiodun M. Adeola, Hannes Rautenbach, Gbenga J. Abiodun, Thabo E. Makgoale, Joel O. Botai, Omolola M. Adisa, Christina M. Botai


There was a surge in malaria morbidity as well as mortality in 2016/2017 malaria season in malaria-endemic regions of South Africa. Rainfall is a major climatic driver of malaria transmission and has potential use for predicting malaria. Annual and seasonal trends and cross-correlation analyses were performed on time series of monthly total rainfall (derived from interpolated weather station data) and monthly malaria cases in five districts of Limpopo Province for the period of 1998 to 2017. The time series analysis indicated that an average of 629.5mm of rainfall was received over the period of study. The rainfall has an annual variation of about 0.46%. Rainfall amount varies among the five districts, with the north-eastern part receiving more rainfall. Spearman’s correlation analysis indicated that total monthly rainfall with one to two months lagged effect is significant in malaria transmission in all the five districts. The strongest correlation is noticed in Mopani (r=0.54; p-value = < 0.001), Vhembe (r=0.53; p-value = < 0.001), Waterberg (r=0.40; p-value = < 0.001), Capricorn (r=0.37; p-value = < 0.001) and lowest in Sekhukhune (r=0.36; p-value = < 0.001). More particularly, malaria morbidity showed a strong relationship with an episode of rainfall above 5-year running means of rainfall of 400 mm. Both annual and seasonal analyses showed that the effect of rainfall on malaria varied across the districts and it is seasonally dependent. Adequate understanding of climatic variables dynamics annually and seasonally is imperative in seeking answers to malaria morbidity among other factors, particularly in the wake of the sudden spike of the disease in the province.

Keywords: correlation, malaria, rainfall, seasonal, trends

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333 Revolving Ferrofluid Flow in Porous Medium with Rotating Disk

Authors: Paras Ram, Vikas Kumar


The transmission of Malaria with seasonal were studied through the use of mathematical models. The data from the annual number of Malaria cases reported to the Division of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand during the period 1997-2011 were analyzed. The transmission of Malaria with seasonal was studied by formulating a mathematical model which had been modified to describe different situations encountered in the transmission of Malaria. In our model, the population was separated into two groups: the human and vector groups, and then constructed a system of nonlinear differential equations. Each human group was divided into susceptible, infectious in hot season, infectious in rainy season, infectious in cool season and recovered classes. The vector population was separated into two classes only: susceptible and infectious vectors. The analysis of the models was given by the standard dynamical modeling.

Keywords: ferrofluid, magnetic field, porous medium, rotating disk, Neuringer-Rosensweig Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 343
332 Seasonal Variation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Associated with PM10 in Győr, Hungary

Authors: Andrea Szabó Nagy, János Szabó, Zsófia Csanádi, József Erdős


The main objective of this study was to assess the seasonal variation of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations associated with PM10 in an urban site of Győr, Hungary. A total of 112 PM10 aerosol samples were collected in the years of 2012 and 2013 and analyzed for PAHs by gas chromatography method. The total PAH concentrations (sum of the concentrations of 19 individual PAH compounds) ranged from 0.19 to 70.16 ng/m3 with the mean value of 12.29 ng/m3. Higher concentrations of both total PAHs and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) were detected in samples collected in the heating seasons. Using BaP-equivalent potency index on the carcinogenic PAH concentration data, the local population appears to be exposed to significantly higher cancer risk in the heating seasons. However, the comparison of the BaP and total PAH concentrations observed for Győr with other cities it was found that the PAH levels in Győr generally corresponded to the EU average.

Keywords: air quality, benzo[a]pyrene, PAHs, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

Procedia PDF Downloads 392