Search results for: variance analysis

Authors: Varsha Singh, Kishan Fuse

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This paper presents a study of the grey-Taguchi method to optimize CNC milling parameters of AA6061 T6 aluminium alloy. Grey-Taguchi method combines Taguchi method based design of experiments (DOE) with grey relational analysis (GRA). Multi-response optimization of different quality characteristics as surface roughness, material removal rate, cutting forces is done using grey relational analysis (GRA). The milling parameters considered for experiments include cutting speed, feed per tooth, and depth of cut. Each parameter with three levels is selected. A grey relational grade is used to estimate overall quality characteristics performance. The Taguchi’s L9 orthogonal array is used for design of experiments. MINITAB 17 software is used for optimization. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to identify most influencing parameter. The experimental results show that grey relational analysis is effective method for optimizing multi-response characteristics. Optimum results are finally validated by performing confirmation test.

Keywords: ANOVA, CNC milling, grey relational analysis, multi-response optimization

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Authors: Luh Eka Suryani, Purhadi

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Poisson regression is a non-linear regression model with response variable in the form of count data that follows Poisson distribution. Modeling for a pair of count data that show high correlation can be analyzed by Poisson Bivariate Regression. Data, the number of infant mortality and maternal mortality, are count data that can be analyzed by Poisson Bivariate Regression. The Poisson regression assumption is an equidispersion where the mean and variance values are equal. However, the actual count data has a variance value which can be greater or less than the mean value (overdispersion and underdispersion). Violations of this assumption can be overcome by applying Generalized Poisson Regression. Characteristics of each regency can affect the number of cases occurred. This issue can be overcome by spatial analysis called geographically weighted regression. This study analyzes the number of infant mortality and maternal mortality based on conditions in East Java in 2016 using Geographically Weighted Bivariate Generalized Poisson Regression (GWBGPR) method. Modeling is done with adaptive bisquare Kernel weighting which produces 3 regency groups based on infant mortality rate and 5 regency groups based on maternal mortality rate. Variables that significantly influence the number of infant and maternal mortality are the percentages of pregnant women visit health workers at least 4 times during pregnancy, pregnant women get Fe3 tablets, obstetric complication handled, clean household and healthy behavior, and married women with the first marriage age under 18 years.

Keywords: adaptive bisquare kernel, GWBGPR, infant mortality, maternal mortality, overdispersion

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Authors: Sonali Agarwal

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The investor perception about investment avenues is affected to a great degree by the current happenings, within the country, and on the global stage. The influencing events can range from government policies, bilateral trade agreements, election agendas, to changing exchange rates, appreciation and depreciation of currency, recessions, meltdowns, bankruptcies etc. The current research attempts to discover and unravel the effect of various macroeconomic variables (crude oil price, gold price, silver price and USD exchange rate) on the Indian mutual fund industry in general and the chosen funds (Axis Gold Fund, BSL Gold Fund, Kotak Gold Fund & SBI gold fund) in particular. Cointegration tests and Vector error correction equations prove that the chosen variables have strong effect on the NAVs (net asset values) of the mutual funds. However, the greatest influence is felt from the fund’s own past and current information and it is found that when an innovation of fund’s own lagged NAVs is given, variance caused is high that changes the current NAVs markedly. The study helps to highlight the interplay of macroeconomic variables and their repercussion on mutual fund industry.

Keywords: cointegration, Granger causality, impulse response, macroeconomic variables, mutual funds, stationarity, unit root test, variance decomposition, VECM

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Authors: John A. Morales, Guillermo Guidi, B. M. Keune

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Electric Power supply is a crucial topic for economic and social development. Power outages statistics show that discharges atmospherics are imperative phenomena to produce those outages. In this context, it is necessary to correctly detect when overhead line insulators are faulted. In this paper, an algorithm to detect if a lightning stroke generates or not permanent fault on insulator strings is proposed. On top of that, lightning stroke simulations developed by using the Alternative Transients Program, are used. Based on these insights, a novel approach is designed that depends on mother functions analysis corresponding to the given variance-covariance matrix. Signals registered at the insulator string are projected on corresponding axes by the means of Principal Component Analysis. By exploiting these new axes, it is possible to determine a flashover characteristic zone useful to a good insulation design. The proposed methodology for flashover detection extends the existing approaches for the analysis and study of lightning performance on transmission lines.

Keywords: mother function, outages, lightning, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Stijn Horck

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Background: The value of lessons learned from failure increases when these insights can be put to use by those who did not experience the failure. While learning from others has mostly been researched between individuals or teams within the same environment, transferring knowledge from the person who experienced the failure to an outsider comes with extra challenges. As sense-making of failure is an individual process leading to different learning experiences, the potential of lessons learned from failure is highly variable depending on who is transferring the lessons learned. Using an integrated framework of linguistic aspects related to attributional egotism, this study aims to offer a complete explanation of the challenges in transferring lessons learned from failures that are experienced by others. Method: A case study of a failed foundation established to address the information needs for GPs in times of COVID-19 has been used. An overview of failure causes and lessons learned were made through a preliminary analysis of data collected in two phases with metaphoric examples of failure types. This was followed up by individual narrative interviews with the board members who have all experienced the same events to analyse the individual variance of lessons learned through discourse analysis. This research design uses the researcher-as-instrument approach since the recipient of these lessons learned is the author himself. Results: Thirteen causes were given why the foundation has failed, and nine lessons were formulated. Based on the individually emphasized events, the explanation of the failure events mentioned by all or three respondents consisted of more linguistic aspects related to attributional egotism than failure events mentioned by only one or two. Moreover, the learning events mentioned by all or three respondents involved lessons learned that are based on changed insight, while the lessons expressed by only one or two are more based on direct value. Retrospectively, the lessons expressed as a group in the first data collection phase seem to have captured some but not all of the direct value lessons. Conclusion: Individual variance in expressing lessons learned to outsiders can be reduced using metaphoric or analogical explanations from a third party. In line with the attributional egotism theory, individuals separated from a group that has experienced the same failure are more likely to refer to failure causes of which the chances to be contradicted are the smallest. Lastly, this study contributes to the academic literature by demonstrating that the use of linguistic analysis is suitable for investigating the knowledge transfer from lessons learned after failure.

Keywords: failure, discourse analysis, knowledge transfer, attributional egotism

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Authors: Adem Peker, Yüksel Eroğlu, İsmail Ay

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As the information and communication technologies have become embedded in everyday life of adolescents, both their possible benefits and risks to adolescents are being identified. The information and communication technologies provide opportunities for adolescents to connect with peers and to access to information. However, as with other social connections, users of information and communication devices have the potential to meet and interact with in harmful ways. One emerging example of such interaction is cyber bullying. Cyber bullying occurs when someone uses the information and communication technologies to harass or embarrass another person. Cyber bullying can take the form of malicious text messages and e-mails, spreading rumours, and excluding people from online groups. Cyber bullying has been linked to psychological problems for cyber bullies and victims. Therefore, it is important to determine how internet addiction contributes to cyber bullying. Building on this question, this study takes a closer look at the relationship between internet addiction and cyber bullying. For this purpose, in this study, based on descriptive relational model, it was hypothesized that loss of control, excessive desire to stay online, and negativity in social relationships, which are dimensions of internet addiction, would be associated positively with cyber bullying and victimization. Participants were 383 high school students (176 girls and 207 boys; mean age, 15.7 years). Internet addiction was measured by using Internet Addiction Scale. The Cyber Victim and Bullying Scale was utilized to measure cyber bullying and victimization. The scales were administered to the students in groups in the classrooms. In this study, stepwise regression analyses were utilized to examine the relationships between dimensions of internet addiction and cyber bullying and victimization. Before applying stepwise regression analysis, assumptions of regression were verified. According to stepwise regression analysis, cyber bullying was predicted by loss of control (β=.26, p<.001) and negativity in social relationships (β=.13, p<.001). These variables accounted for 9 % of the total variance, with the loss of control explaining the higher percentage (8 %). On the other hand, cyber victimization was predicted by loss of control (β=.19, p<.001) and negativity in social relationships (β=.12, p<.001). These variables altogether accounted for 8 % of the variance in cyber victimization, with the best predictor loss of control (7 % of the total variance). The results of this study demonstrated that, as expected, loss of control and negativity in social relationships predicted cyber bullying and victimization positively. However, excessive desire to stay online did not emerge a significant predictor of both cyberbullying and victimization. Consequently, this study would enhance our understanding of the predictors of cyber bullying and victimization since the results proposed that internet addiction is related with cyber bullying and victimization.

Keywords: cyber bullying, internet addiction, adolescents, regression

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Authors: Antonela Matana, Dubravka Brdar, Vesela Torlak, Marijana Popovic, Ivana Gunjaca, Ozren Polasek, Vesna Boraska Perica, Maja Barbalic, Ante Punda, Caroline Hayward, Tatijana Zemunik

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Parathyroid hormone (PTH) plays a critical role in the regulation of bone mineral metabolism and calcium homeostasis. Higher PTH levels are associated with heart failure, hypertension, coronary artery disease, cardiovascular mortality and poorer bone health. A twin study estimated that 60% of the variation in PTH concentrations is genetically determined. Only one GWAS of PTH concentration has been reported to date. Identified loci explained 4.5% of the variance in circulating PTH, suggesting that additional genetic variants remain undiscovered. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify novel genetic variants associated with PTH levels in a general population. We have performed a GWAS meta-analysis on 2596 individuals originating from three Croatian cohorts: City of Split and the Islands of Korčula and Vis, within a large-scale project of “10,001 Dalmatians”. A total of 7 411 206 variants, imputed using the 1000 Genomes reference panel, with minor allele frequency ≥ 1% and Rsq ≥ 0.5 were analyzed for the association. GWAS within each data set was performed under an additive model, controlling for age, gender and relatedness. Meta-analysis was conducted using the inverse-variance fixed-effects method. Furthermore, to identify sex-specific effects, we have conducted GWAS meta-analyses analyzing males and females separately. In addition, we have performed biological pathway analysis. Four SNPs, representing one locus, reached genome-wide significance. The most significant SNP was rs11099476 on chromosome 4 (P=1.15x10-8), which explained 1.14 % of the variance in PTH. The SNP is located near the protein-coding gene RASGEF1B. Additionally, we detected suggestive association with SNPs, rs77178854 located on chromosome 2 in the DPP10 gene (P=2.46x10-7) and rs481121 located on chromosome 1 (P=3.58x10-7) near the GRIK1 gene. One of the top hits detected in the main meta-analysis, intron variant rs77178854 located within DPP10 gene, reached genome-wide significance in females (P=2.21x10-9). No single locus was identified in the meta-analysis in males. Fifteen biological pathways were functionally enriched at a P<0.01, including muscle contraction, ion homeostasis and cardiac conduction as the most significant pathways. RASGEF1B is the guanine nucleotide exchange factor, known to be associated with height, bone density, and hip. DPP10 encodes a membrane protein that is a member of the serine proteases family, which binds specific voltage-gated potassium channels and alters their expression and biophysical properties. In conclusion, we identified 2 novel loci associated with PTH levels in a general population, providing us with further insights into the genetics of this complex trait.

Keywords: general population, genome-wide association analysis, parathyroid hormone, single nucleotide polymorphisms.

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Authors: Fariba Dortaj, Reza Asadinejad, Akram Dortaj, Atena Baziyar

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The aim of this study was to determine the effect of distance education (based on MOOC) on the components of academic engagement of Kerman PNU. The research was quasi-experimental method that cluster sampling with an appropriate volume was used in this study (one class in experimental group and one class in controlling group). Sampling method is single-stage cluster sampling. The statistical society is students of Kerman Payam Noor University, which) were selected 40 of them as sample (20 students in the control group and 20 students in experimental group). To test the hypothesis, it was used the analysis of univariate and Co-covariance to offset the initial difference (difference of control) in the experimental group and the control group. The instrument used in this study is academic engagement questionnaire of Zerang (2012) that contains component of cognitive, behavioral and motivational engagement. The results showed that there is no significant difference between mean scores of academic components of academic engagement in experimental group and the control group on the post-test, after elimination of the pre-test. The adjusted mean scores of components of academic engagement in the experimental group were higher than the adjusted average of scores after the test in the control group. The use of technology-based education in distance education has been effective in increasing cognitive engagement, motivational engagement and behavioral engagement among students. Experimental variable with the effect size 0.26, predicted 26% of cognitive engagement component variance. Experimental variable with the effect size 0.47, predicted 47% of the motivational engagement component variance. Experimental variable with the effect size 0.40, predicted 40% of behavioral engagement component variance. So teaching with technology (MOOC) has a positive impact on increasing academic engagement and academic performance of students in educational technology. The results suggest that technology (MOOC) is used to enrich the teaching of other lessons of PNU.

Keywords: educational technology, distance education, components of academic engagement, mooc technology

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Authors: Arunee Wongkhao, Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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In this paper, we propose two new confidence intervals for the difference between the inverse of normal means with known coefficients of variation. One of these two confidence intervals for this problem is constructed based on the generalized confidence interval and the other confidence interval is constructed based on the closed form method of variance estimation. We examine the performance of these confidence intervals in terms of coverage probabilities and expected lengths via Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: coverage probability, expected length, inverse of normal mean, coefficient of variation, generalized confidence interval, closed form method of variance estimation

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Authors: Ashwinder K. Dhaliwal, G. P. S. Dhillon

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Eucalyptus is one of the most important forest tree species that can tolerate and grow well on degraded and unfertile soils which are not suitable for other tree species. Besides this, these trees have a short rotation and good economic value. However, the gall inducing wasp Leptocybe invasa Fisher and La Salle has been reported from many countries throughout the world. The spread of L. invasa is of huge economic concern as more than 20,000 ha of young Eucalyptus trees have already been affected in southern states of India. The host plant resistance being the first line of defense against insect pests demands the screening of different germplasm source against L. invasa. Keeping this in view, fourteen different clones of Eucalyptus spp. were evaluated for their susceptibility to L. invasa from a replicated clonal trial planted at Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. The degree of gall infestation was recorded from three plants of each clone in each replication. Three branches selected from the lower, middle and upper canopy of the trees were selected for recording the total number of galls induced by L. invasa. The statistical analysis was done as per the procedure laid down for completely randomised block design (CRBD), analysis of variance (ANOVA), critical difference (CD) and variance components using Proc GLM (SAS software 9.3, SAS Institute Ltd. U.S.A). All possible treatment means were compared with Duncan’s multiple range test (DMRT) at 1 % probability level. The results showed that the clones C-9, C-45 and C-42 were completely free from the infestation of L. invasa. However, there was minor infestation of L. invasa on C-2135, C-413, C-407, C-35, C-72 and C-37 clones. The clone C-6 was severely infested by L. invasa followed by C-11, C-12, F-316 and C-25 clones. The information generated by this study will be helpful for future breeding and use in afforestation programmes.

Keywords: eucalyptus clones, gall wasp, Leptocybe invasa, screening, susceptibility

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Authors: Noor Ismael, Lisa Mische Lawson, Lauren Little, Murad Moqbel

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Background/Significance: Caregivers of children with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) develop coping mechanisms to overcome daily challenges to successfully parent their child. There is variability in coping strategies used among caregivers of children with ASD. Capturing homogeneity among such variable groups may help elucidate targeted intervention approaches for caregivers of children with ASD. Study Purpose: This study aimed to identify groups of caregivers of children with ASD based on coping mechanisms, and to examine whether there are differences among these groups in terms of strain level. Methods: This study utilized a secondary data analysis, and included survey responses of 273 caregivers of children with ASD. Measures consisted of the COPE Inventory and the Caregiver Strain Questionnaire. Data analyses consisted of cluster analysis to group caregiver coping strategies, and analysis of variance to compare the caregiver coping groups on strain level. Results: Cluster analysis results showed four distinct groups with different combinations of coping strategies: Social-Supported/Planning (group one), Spontaneous/Reactive (group two), Self-Supporting/Reappraisal (group three), and Religious/Expressive (group four). Caregivers in group one (Social-Supported/Planning) demonstrated significantly higher levels than the remaining three groups in the use of the following coping strategies: planning, use of instrumental social support, and use of emotional social support, relative to the other three groups. Caregivers in group two (Spontaneous/Reactive) used less restraint relative to the other three groups, and less suppression of competing activities relative to the other three groups as coping strategies. Also, group two showed significantly lower levels of religious coping as compared to the other three groups. In contrast to group one, caregivers in group three (Self-Supporting/Reappraisal) demonstrated significantly lower levels of the use of instrumental social support and the use of emotional social support relative to the other three groups. Additionally, caregivers in group three showed more acceptance, positive reinterpretation and growth coping strategies. Caregivers in group four (Religious/Expressive) demonstrated significantly higher levels of religious coping relative to the other three groups and utilized more venting of emotions strategies. Analysis of Variance results showed no significant differences between the four groups on the strain scores. Conclusions: There are four distinct groups with different combinations of coping strategies: Social-Supported/Planning, Spontaneous/Reactive, Self-Supporting/Reappraisal, and Religious/Expressive. Each caregiver group engaged in a combination of coping strategies to overcome the strain of caregiving.

Keywords: autism, caregivers, cluster analysis, coping strategies

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Authors: Dwi Wijiastutik, Tarjo, Yuni Rimawati

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The purpose of this empirical study is to analyse how to the market reaction and the conservative degree changes on the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standart (IFRS) through Jakarta Islamic Index. The study also has given others additional analysis on the profitability, capital structure and size company toward IFRS adoption. The data collection methods used in this study reveals as secondary data and deep analysis to the company’s annual report and daily price stock at yahoo finance. We analyse 40 companies listed on Jakarta Islamic Index from 2010 to 2014. The result of the study concluded that IFRS has given a different on the depth analysis to the two of variance analysis: Moderated Regression Analysis and Wilcoxon Signed Rank to test developed hypotheses. Our result on the regression analysis shows that market response and conservatism principle is not significantly after IFRS Adoption in Jakarta Islamic Index. Furthermore, in addition, analysis on profitability, capital structure, and company size show that significantly after IFRS adoption. The findings of our study help investor by showing the impact of IFRS for making decided investment.

Keywords: IFRS, earnings response coefficient, conservatism principle

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Authors: Linyu Wang, Jiahui Ma, Jianhong Xiang, Hanyu Jiang

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For the pilot design of the sparse channel estimation model in Multiple Input Multiple Output Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) systems, the observation matrix constructed according to the matrix cross-correlation criterion, total correlation criterion and other optimization criteria are not optimal, resulting in inaccurate channel estimation and high bit error rate at the receiver. This paper proposes a pilot design method combining high-power sum and high-power variance criteria, which can more accurately estimate the channel. First, the pilot insertion position is designed according to the high-power variance criterion under the condition of equal power. Then, according to the high power sum criterion, the pilot power allocation is converted into a cone programming problem, and the power allocation is carried out. Finally, the optimal pilot is determined by calculating the weighted sum of the high power sum and the high power variance. Compared with the traditional pilot frequency, under the same conditions, the constructed MIMO-OFDM system uses the optimal pilot frequency for channel estimation, and the communication bit error rate performance obtains a gain of 6~7dB.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, pilot optimization, compressed sensing, channel estimation

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Authors: D. Supaporn, B. Julaluk

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The purposes of this study were to study symptom cluster, functional status and quality of life of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and to examine factors related to and predicting symptom cluster, functional status and quality of life of COPD patients. The sample was 180 COPD patients multi-stage random sampling from 4 hospitals in the eastern region, Thailand. The research instruments were 8 questionnaires and recorded forms measuring personal and illness data, co-morbidity, physical and psychological symptom, health status perception, social support, and regimen adherence, functional status and quality of life. Spearman rank and Pearson correlation coefficient, exploratory factors analysis and standard multiple regression were used to analyzed data. The findings revealed that two symptom clusters were generated: physical symptom cluster including dyspnea, fatigue and insomnia; and, psychological symptom cluster including anxiety and depression. Scores of physical symptom cluster was at moderate level while that of psychological symptom cluster was at low level. Scores on functional status, social support and overall regimen adherence were at good level whereas scores on quality of life and health status perception were at moderate level. Disease severity was positively related to physical symptom cluster, psychological symptom cluster and quality of life, and was negatively related to functional status at a moderate level (rs = .512, .509, .588 and -.611, respectively). Co-morbidity was positively related to physical symptom cluster and psychological symptom cluster at a low level (r = .179 and .176, respectively). Regimen adherence was negatively related to quality of life and psychological symptom cluster at a low level (r=-.277 and -.309, respectively), and was positively related to functional status at a moderate level (r=.331). Health status perception was negatively related to physical symptom cluster, psychological symptom cluster and quality of life at a moderate to high level (r = -.567, -.640 and -.721, respectively) and was positively related to functional status at a high level (r = .732). Social support was positively related to functional status (r=.235) and was negatively related to quality of life at a low level (r=-.178). Physical symptom cluster was negatively related to functional status (r= -.490) and was positively related to quality of life at a moderate level (r=.566). Psychological symptom cluster was negatively related to functional status and was positively related to quality of life at a moderate level (r= -.566 and .559, respectively). Disease severity, co-morbidity and health status perception could predict 40.2% of the variance of physical symptom cluster. Disease severity, co-morbidity, regimen adherence and health status perception could predict 49.8% of the variance of psychological symptom cluster. Co-morbidity, regimen adherence and health status perception could predict 65.0% of the variance of functional status. Disease severity, health status perception and physical symptom cluster could predict 60.0% of the variance of quality of life in COPD patients. The results of this study can be used for enhancing quality of life of COPD patients.

Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, functional status, quality of life, symptom cluster

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Authors: Ayşen Edirneligil, Mehmet Mucuk

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In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run.

Keywords: external debt, economic growth, Turkish economy, time series analysis

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Authors: Jéssica Ferreira Rodrigues, Júlio Silvio De Sousa Bueno Filho, Vanessa Rios De Souza, Ana Carla Marques Pinheiro

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This study aimed to evaluate the implications of the block size and testing order on efficiency and precision of preference estimation for Dulce de leche samples. Efficiency was defined as the inverse of the average variance of pairwise comparisons among treatments. Precision was defined as the inverse of the variance of treatment means (or effects) estimates. The experiment was originally designed to test 16 treatments as a series of 8 Sudoku 16x16 designs being 4 randomized independently and 4 others in the reverse order, to yield balance in testing order. Linear mixed models were assigned to the whole experiment with 112 testers and all their grades, as well as their partially balanced subgroups, namely: a) experiment with the four initial EU; b) experiment with EU 5 to 8; c) experiment with EU 9 to 12; and b) experiment with EU 13 to 16. To record responses we used a nine-point hedonic scale, it was assumed a mixed linear model analysis with random tester and treatments effects and with fixed test order effect. Analysis of a cumulative random effects probit link model was very similar, with essentially no different conclusions and for simplicity, we present the results using Gaussian assumption. R-CRAN library lme4 and its function lmer (Fit Linear Mixed-Effects Models) was used for the mixed models and libraries Bayesthresh (default Gaussian threshold function) and ordinal with the function clmm (Cumulative Link Mixed Model) was used to check Bayesian analysis of threshold models and cumulative link probit models. It was noted that the number of samples tested in the same session can influence the acceptance level, underestimating the acceptance. However, proving a large number of samples can help to improve the samples discrimination.

Keywords: acceptance, block size, mixed linear model, testing order, testing order

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Authors: Baya Takhedmit, Karim Abbas, Sofiane Ouazine

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The vacations queues are often employed to model many real situations such as computer systems, communication networks, manufacturing and production systems, transportation systems and so forth. These queueing models are solved at fixed parameters values. However, the parameter values themselves are determined from a finite number of observations and hence have uncertainty associated with them (epistemic uncertainty). In this paper, we consider the M/G/1/N queue with server vacation and exhaustive discipline where we assume that the vacation parameter values have uncertainty. We use the Taylor series expansions approach to estimate the expectation and variance of model output, due to epistemic uncertainties in the model input parameters.

Keywords: epistemic uncertainty, M/G/1/N queue with vacations, non-parametric sensitivity analysis, Taylor series expansion

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Authors: Madhat Abu Al-Naeem, Ismail Yusoff, Ng Tham Fatt, Yatimah Alias

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Groundwater in Gaza strip is increasingly being exposed to anthropic and natural factors that seriously impacted the groundwater quality. Physiochemical data of groundwater can offer important information on changes in groundwater quality that can be useful in improving water management tactics. An integrative hydrochemical and statistical techniques (Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and factor analysis (FA)) have been applied on the existence ten physiochemical data of 84 samples collected in (2000/2001) using STATA, AquaChem, and Surfer softwares to: 1) Provide valuable insight into the salinization sources and the hydrochemical processes controlling the chemistry of groundwater. 2) Differentiate the influence of natural processes and man-made activities. The recorded large diversity in water facies with dominance Na-Cl type that reveals a highly saline aquifer impacted by multiple complex hydrochemical processes. Based on WHO standards, only (15.5%) of the wells were suitable for drinking. HCA yielded three clusters. Cluster 1 is the highest in salinity, mainly due to the impact of Eocene saline water invasion mixed with human inputs. Cluster 2 is the lowest in salinity also due to Eocene saline water invasion but mixed with recent rainfall recharge and limited carbonate dissolution and nitrate pollution. Cluster 3 is similar in salinity to Cluster 2, but with a high diversity of facies due to the impact of many sources of salinity as sea water invasion, carbonate dissolution and human inputs. Factor analysis yielded two factors accounting for 88% of the total variance. Factor 1 (59%) is a salinization factor demonstrating the mixing contribution of natural saline water with human inputs. Factor 2 measure the hardness and pollution which explained 29% of the total variance. The negative relationship between the NO3- and pH may reveal a denitrification process in a heavy polluted aquifer recharged by a limited oxygenated rainfall. Multivariate statistical analysis combined with hydrochemical analysis indicate that the main factors controlling groundwater chemistry were Eocene saline invasion, seawater invasion, sewage invasion and rainfall recharge and the main hydrochemical processes were base ion and reverse ion exchange processes with clay minerals (water rock interactions), nitrification, carbonate dissolution and a limited denitrification process.

Keywords: dendrogram and cluster analysis, water facies, Eocene saline invasion and sea water invasion, nitrification and denitrification

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Authors: Shih Yu Pan, Pao Chen Hung, Chuan Yao Lin, Charles C.-K. Chou, Yu Chi Lin, Kai Hsien Chi

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This study analyzed 16 atmospheric PAHs species which were controlled by USEPA and IARC. To measure the concentration of PAHs, four rural sampling sites and two urban sampling sites were selected in Central Taiwan during spring and summer. In central Taiwan, the rural sampling stations were located in the downstream of Da-An River, Da-Jang River, Wu River and Chuo-shui River. On the other hand, the urban sampling sites were located in Taichung district and close to the roadside. Ambient air samples of both vapor phase and particle phase of PAHs compounds were collected using high volume sampling trains (Analitica). The sampling media were polyurethane foam (PUF) with XAD2 and quartz fiber filters. Diagnostic ratio, Principal component analysis (PCA), Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) models were used to evaluate the apportionment of PAHs in the atmosphere and speculate the relative contribution of various emission sources. Because of the high temperature and low wind speed, high PAHs concentration in the atmosphere was observed. The total PAHs concentration, especially in vapor phase, had significant change during summer. During the sampling periods the total PAHs concentration of atmospheric at four rural and two urban sampling sites in spring and summer were 3.70±0.40 ng/m3,3.40±0.63 ng/m3,5.22±1.24 ng/m3,7.23±0.37 ng/m3,7.46±2.36 ng/m3,6.21±0.55 ng/m3　; 15.0± 0.14 ng/m3,18.8±8.05 ng/m3,20.2±8.58 ng/m3,16.1±3.75 ng/m3,29.8±10.4 ng/m3,35.3±11.8 ng/m3, respectively. In order to identify PAHs sources, we used diagnostic ratio to classify the emission sources. The potential sources were diesel combustion and gasoline combustion in spring and summer, respectively. According to the principal component analysis (PCA), the PC1 and PC2 had 23.8%, 20.4% variance and 21.3%, 17.1% variance in spring and summer, respectively. Especially high molecular weight PAHs (BaP, IND, BghiP, Flu, Phe, Flt, Pyr) were dominated in spring when low molecular weight PAHs (AcPy, Ant, Acp, Flu) because of the dominating high temperatures were dominated in the summer. Analysis by using PMF model found the sources of PAHs in spring were stationary sources (34%), vehicle emissions (24%), coal combustion (23%) and petrochemical fuel gas (19%), while in summer the emission sources were petrochemical fuel gas (34%), the natural environment of volatile organic compounds (29%), coal combustion (19%) and stationary sources (18%).

Keywords: PAHs, source identification, diagnostic ratio, principal component analysis, positive matrix factorization

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Authors: B. Marasović, S. Pivac, S. V. Vukasović

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Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the presence of transaction costs on the Croatian capital market is analyzed. The model applied in the paper is an extension of the standard portfolio mean-variance optimization model in which transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. This model allows different costs for different securities, and different costs for buying and selling. In order to find efficient portfolio, using this model, first, the solution of quadratic programming problem of similar size to the Markowitz model, and then the solution of a linear programming problem have to be found. Furthermore, in the paper the impact of transaction costs on the efficient frontier is investigated. Moreover, it is shown that global minimum variance portfolio on the efficient frontier always has the same level of the risk regardless of the amount of transaction costs. Although efficient frontier position depends of both transaction costs amount and initial portfolio it can be concluded that extreme right portfolio on the efficient frontier always contains only one stock with the highest expected return and the highest risk.

Keywords: Croatian capital market, Markowitz model, fractional quadratic programming, portfolio optimization, transaction costs

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Authors: Wajeeha Shahid

Abstract:

The study was designed to assess the impact of transformational and transactional leadership styles on work motivation and organizational commitment among faculty members of universities of Punjab. 713 faculty members were selected as sample through convenient random sampling technique. Three self-constructed questionnaires namely Leadership Styles Questionnaire (LSQ), Work Motivation Questionnaire (WMQ) and Organizational Commitment Questionnaire (OCMQ) were used as research instruments. Major objectives of the study included assessing the effect and impact of transformational and transactional leadership styles on work motivation and organizational commitment. Theoretical frame work of the study included Idealized Influence, Inspirational Motivation, Intellectual Stimulation, Individualized Consideration, Contingent Rewards and Management by Exception as independent variables and Extrinsic motivation, Intrinsic motivation, Affective commitment, Continuance commitment and Normative commitment as dependent variables. SPSS Version 21 was used to analyze and tabulate data. Cronbach's Alpha reliability, Pearson Correlation and Multiple regression analysis were applied as statistical treatments for the analysis. Results revealed that Idealized Influence correlated significantly with intrinsic motivation and Affective commitment whereas Contingent rewards had a strong positive correlation with extrinsic motivation and affective commitment. Multiple regression models revealed a variance of 85% for transformational leadership style over work motivation and organizational commitment. Whereas transactional style as a predictor manifested a variance of 79% for work motivation and 76% for organizational commitment. It was suggested that changing organizational cultures are demanding more from their leadership. All organizations need to consider transformational leadership style as an important part of their equipment in leveraging both soft and hard organizational targets.

Keywords: leadership styles, work motivation, organizational commitment, faculty member

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Authors: Osman Zorbaz, Selen Demirtas-Zorbaz, Ozlem Ulas

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The factors that cause adolescents to drop out school were several. One of the frameworks about school dropout focuses on the contextual factors around the adolescents whereas the other one focuses on individual factors. It can be said that both factors are important equally. In this study, both adolescent’s individual factors (anti-social behaviors, academic success) and contextual factors (parent academic involvement, parent academic support, number of siblings, living with parent) were examined in the term of school dropout. The study sample consisted of 346 high school students in the public schools in Ankara who continued their education in 2015-2016 academic year. One hundred eighty-five the students (53.5%) were girls and 161 (46.5%) were boys. In addition to this 118 of them were in ninth grade, 122 of them in tenth grade and 106 of them were in eleventh grade. Multiple regression and one-way ANOVA statistical methods were used. First, it was examined if the data meet the assumptions and conditions that are required for regression analysis. After controlling the assumptions, regression analysis was conducted. Parent academic involvement, parent academic support, number of siblings, anti-social behaviors, academic success variables were taken into the regression model and it was seen that parent academic involvement (t=-3.023, p < .01), anti-social behaviors (t=7.038, p < .001), and academic success (t=-3.718, p < .001) predicted school dropout whereas parent academic support (t=-1.403, p > .05) and number of siblings (t=-1.908, p > .05) didn’t. The model explained 30% of the variance (R=.557, R2=.300, F5,345=30.626, p < .001). In addition to this the variance, results showed there was no significant difference on high school students school dropout levels according to living with parents or not (F2;345=1.183, p > .05). Results discussed in the light of the literature and suggestion were made. As a result, academic involvement, academic success and anti-social behaviors will be considered as an important factors for preventing school drop-out.

Keywords: adolescents, anti-social behavior, parent academic involvement, parent academic support, school dropout

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Authors: Naoyuki Sugihashi, Toshiharu Kishi

Abstract:

The probability of occurrence of thermal cracks in mass concrete in Japan is evaluated by the cracking probability diagram that represents the relationship between the thermal cracking index and the probability of occurrence of cracks in the actual structure. In this paper, we propose a method to directly calculate the cracking probability, following a probabilistic theory by modeling the variance of tensile stress and tensile strength. In this method, the relationship between the variance of tensile stress and tensile strength, the thermal cracking index, and the cracking probability are formulated and presented. In addition, standard deviation of tensile stress and tensile strength was identified, and the method of calculating cracking probability in a general construction controlled environment was also demonstrated.

Keywords: thermal crack control, mass concrete, thermal cracking probability, durability of concrete, calculating method of cracking probability

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Authors: Roya Maqami, Kaveh Qaderi Bagajan, Mohammad Mahdi Yousefi, Saeed Moradi

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficacy of solution-focused group therapy on improving the depressed mothers of child abuser families. This study was carried out in the form of a semi-pilot, pre-test and post-test on two groups (experimental and control). Subjects include all mothers and their children that are the members of Shush and Naser Khosro child home. Beck Depression Inventory and Child Trauma Questionnaire were used to collect data. First, child abuse questionnaire was completed by children, Then Beck Depression Inventory was completed by their mothers that 22 of them were recognized as depressed and randomly divided in two groups of experimental and control. After applying pre-test for both of these groups, the intervention of solution- focused group therapy was performed in five sessions on experimental group. Finally, post-test was applied on both groups and subsequently in a month, follow-up test was performed. T-test, multivariate variance, and repeated measurement analysis of variance were used to analyze the data. According to the findings, it can be concluded that this therapy leads to the improvement of depressed mother's mood. As a result, the intervention of solution-focused group therapy is useful in order to improve the depressing mood of mothers of child abuser families.

Keywords: child abuse, depressed mothers, child abuser families, solution focused group therapy

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Authors: O. P. Popoola, O. A. Alawode, M. O. Olayiwola, A. M. Oladele

Abstract:

This research work is based on using discriminant analysis to forecast crime rate in Nigeria between 1996 and 2008. The work is interested in how gender (male and female) relates to offences committed against the government, against other properties, disturbance in public places, murder/robbery offences and other offences. The data used was collected from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). SPSS, the statistical package was used to analyse the data. Time plot was plotted on all the 29 offences gotten from the raw data. Eigenvalues and Multivariate tests, Wilks’ Lambda, standardized canonical discriminant function coefficients and the predicted classifications were estimated. The research shows that the distribution of the scores from each function is standardized to have a mean O and a standard deviation of 1. The magnitudes of the coefficients indicate how strongly the discriminating variable affects the score. In the predicted group membership, 172 cases that were predicted to commit crime against Government group, 66 were correctly predicted and 106 were incorrectly predicted. After going through the predicted classifications, we found out that most groups numbers that were correctly predicted were less than those that were incorrectly predicted.

Keywords: discriminant analysis, DA, multivariate analysis of variance, MANOVA, canonical correlation, and Wilks’ Lambda

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Authors: A. M. Abd-Elfattah, M. H. Abu-Moussa

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In this paper, the estimation of stress-strength parameter R = P(Y < X) is considered when X; Y the strength and stress respectively are two independent random variables of Burr Type XII distribution. The samples taken for X and Y are progressively censoring of type II. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of R is obtained when the common parameter is unknown. But when the common parameter is known the MLE, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) and the Bayes estimator of R = P(Y < X) are obtained. The exact condence interval of R based on MLE is obtained. The performance of the proposed estimators is compared using the computer simulation.

Keywords: Burr Type XII distribution, progressive type-II censoring, stress-strength model, unbiased estimator, maximum-likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, confidence intervals, Bayes estimator

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Authors: Keven A. Prusak, William F. Christensen, Zack Beddoes

Abstract:

Background: For more than a decade, the Sport Motivation Scale (SMS) has been used to measure contextual motivation across a variety of sporting and physical education (PE) settings but not without criticism as to its tenability. Consequently, a new version of the sport motivation scale (SMS-II) was created to address certain weakness of the original SMS. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to assess the suitability of the SMS-II in the secondary PE setting. Methods: Three hundred and twenty (204 females, and 116 males; grades 7-9) completed the 18-item, six-subscale SMS-II at the end of a required PE class. Factor means, standard deviations, and correlations were calculated and further examined via confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Model parameters were estimated maximum likelihood function. Results: Results indicate that participants held generally positive perceptions toward PE as a context (more so for males than females). Reliability analysis yielded adequate alphas (rα = 0.71 to 0.87, Mα = 0.78) with the exception of the AM subscale (αAM = .64). Correlation analysis indicated some support for the SIMPLEX pattern, but distal ends of the motivation continuum displayed no relationship. CFA yielded robust fit indices to the proposed structure of the SMS-II for PE. A small but significant variance across genders was noted and discussed. Conclusions: In all, the SMS-II suitably accesses PE context-specific motivational indices within Jr. High PE.

Keywords: motivation, self-determination theory, physical education, confirmatory factor analysis

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Authors: Mohamed Ben Amar, Najib Souissi, Chedly Bradai

Abstract:

A Taguchi design investigation has been made into the relationship between the ductility and process variables in a squeeze cast 2017A wrought aluminium alloy. The considered process parameters were: squeeze pressure, melt temperature and die preheating temperature. An orthogonal array (OA), main effect, signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio, and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) are employed to analyze the effect of casting parameters. The results have shown that the selected parameters significantly affect the ductility of 2017A wrought Al alloy castings. Optimal squeeze cast process parameters were provided to illustrate the proposed approach and the results were proven to be trustworthy through practical experiments.

Keywords: Taguchi method, squeeze casting, process parameters, ductility, microstructure

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Authors: Shweta K. Vyas, Rakesh Musale, Sanjeev R. Shukla

Abstract:

Eri silk is a non mulberry silk which is obtained without killing the silkworms and hence it is also known as Ahmisa silk. In the present study, the results on degumming of eri silk with alkaline peroxide have been compared with those obtained by using ionic liquid (IL) 1-Butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride [BMIM]Cl. Experiments were designed to find out the optimum processing parameters for degumming of eri silk by response surface methodology. The statistical software, Design-Expert 6.0 was used for regression analysis and graphical analysis of the responses obtained by running the set of designed experiments. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to estimate the statistical parameters. The polynomial equation of quadratic order was employed to fit the experimental data. The quality and model terms were evaluated by F-test. Three dimensional surface plots were prepared to study the effect of variables on different responses. The optimum conditions for IL treatment were selected from predicted combinations and the experiments were repeated under these conditions to determine the reproducibility.

Keywords: silk degumming, ionic liquid, response surface methodology, ANOVA

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Authors: Selin Kara-Bahçekapılı, Bengisu Nehir Aydın

Abstract:

Objective: In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between childhood traumas (overprotection-control, emotional/physical/sexual abuse, emotional/physical neglect), age, emotional regulation difficulties, and the tendency of violence in adults. In the study, the direct and indirect effects of 6 sub-factors of childhood traumas, emotion regulation difficulties, and age on tendency to violence are evaluated on a model that theoretically reveals. Method: The population of this cross-sectional study consists of individuals between the ages of 18-65 living in Turkey. The data from 527 participants were obtained by online surveys and convenience sampling method within the scope of the study. As a result of exclusion criteria and then outlier data analysis, the data of 443 participants were included in the analysis. Data were collected by demographic information form, childhood trauma scale, emotion regulation difficulty scale, and violence tendency scale. Research data were analyzed by SPSS and AMOS using correlation, path analysis, direct and indirect effects. Results: According to the research findings, the variables in the model explained 28.2% of the variance of the mean scores of the individuals' tendency to violence. Emotion regulation difficulties have the most direct effect on the tendency to violence (d=.387; p<.01). The effects of excessive protection and control, emotional neglect, and physical neglect variables on the tendency to violence are not significant. When the significant and indirect effects of the variables on tendency to violence over emotion regulation difficulties are examined, age has a negative effect, emotional neglect has a positive effect, emotional abuse has a positive effect, and overprotection-control has a positive effect. The indirect effects of sexual abuse, physical neglect, and physical abuse on tendency to violence are not significant. Childhood traumas and age variables in the model explained 24.1% of the variance of the mean scores of the individuals’ emotion regulation difficulties. The variable that most affects emotion regulation difficulties is age (d=-.268; p<.001). The direct effects of sexual abuse, physical neglect, and physical abuse on emotion regulation difficulties are not significant. Conclusion: The results of the research emphasize the critical role of difficulty in emotion regulation on the tendency to violence. Difficulty in emotion regulation affects the tendency to violence both directly and by mediating different variables. In addition, it is seen that some sub-factors of childhood traumas have direct and/or indirect effects on the tendency to violence. Emotional abuse and age have both direct and indirect effects on the tendency to violence over emotion regulation difficulties.

Keywords: childhood trauma, emotion regulation difficulties, tendency to violence, path analysis

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