Search results for: speed ratio

Authors: Liudmila Shabalinskaya, Victor Golovanov, Liudmila Milinis, Sergey Loponos, Alexander Maslov, D. O. Frolov

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The work is devoted to the rapid laboratory diagnosis of the condition of aircraft friction units, based on the application of the nondestructive testing method by analyzing the parameters of wear particles, or tribodiagnostics. The most important task of tribodiagnostics is to develop recommendations for the selection of more advanced designs, materials and lubricants based on data on wear processes for increasing the life and ensuring the safety of the operation of machines and mechanisms. The object of tribodiagnostics in this work are the tooth gears of the central drive and the gearboxes of the gas turbine engine of the civil aviation PS-90A type, in which rolling friction and sliding friction with slip occur. The main criterion for evaluating the technical state of lubricated friction units of a gas turbine engine is the intensity and rate of wear of the friction surfaces of the friction unit parts. When the engine is running, oil samples are taken and the state of the friction surfaces is evaluated according to the parameters of the wear particles contained in the oil sample, which carry important and detailed information about the wear processes in the engine transmission units. The parameters carrying this information include the concentration of wear particles and metals in the oil, the dispersion composition, the shape, the size ratio and the number of particles, the state of their surfaces, the presence in the oil of various mechanical impurities of non-metallic origin. Such a morphological analysis of wear particles has been introduced into the order of monitoring the status and diagnostics of various aircraft engines, including a gas turbine engine, since the type of wear characteristic of the central drive and the drive box is surface fatigue wear and the beginning of its development, accompanied by the formation of microcracks, leads to the formation of spherical, up to 10 μm in size, and in the aftermath of flocculent particles measuring 20-200 μm in size. Tribodiagnostics using the morphological analysis of wear particles includes the following techniques: ferrography, filtering, and computer analysis of the classification and counting of wear particles. Based on the analysis of several series of oil samples taken from the drive box of the engine during their operating time, a study was carried out of the processes of wear kinetics. Based on the results of the study and comparing the series of criteria for tribodiagnostics, wear state ratings and statistics of the results of morphological analysis, norms for the normal operating regime were developed. The study allowed to develop levels of wear state for friction surfaces of gearing and a 10-point rating system for estimating the likelihood of the occurrence of an increased wear mode and, accordingly, prevention of engine failures in flight.

Keywords: aviation, box of drives, morphological analysis, tribodiagnostics, tribology, ferrography, filtering, wear particle

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Authors: Antonella Falanga, Armando Cartenì

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Today, an unprecedented amount of data coming from several sources, including mobile devices, sensors, tracking systems, and online platforms, characterizes our lives. The term “big data” not only refers to the quantity of data but also to the variety and speed of data generation. These data hold valuable insights that, when extracted and analyzed, facilitate informed decision-making. The 4Vs of big data - velocity, volume, variety, and value - highlight essential aspects, showcasing the rapid generation, vast quantities, diverse sources, and potential value addition of these kinds of data. This surge of information has revolutionized many sectors, such as business for improving decision-making processes, healthcare for clinical record analysis and medical research, education for enhancing teaching methodologies, agriculture for optimizing crop management, finance for risk assessment and fraud detection, media and entertainment for personalized content recommendations, emergency for a real-time response during crisis/events, and also mobility for the urban planning and for the design/management of public and private transport services. Big data's pervasive impact enhances societal aspects, elevating the quality of life, service efficiency, and problem-solving capacities. However, during this transformative era, new challenges arise, including data quality, privacy, data security, cybersecurity, interoperability, the need for advanced infrastructures, and staff training. Within the transportation sector (the one investigated in this research), applications span planning, designing, and managing systems and mobility services. Among the most common big data applications within the transport sector are, for example, real-time traffic monitoring, bus/freight vehicle route optimization, vehicle maintenance, road safety and all the autonomous and connected vehicles applications. Benefits include a reduction in travel times, road accidents and pollutant emissions. Within these issues, the proper transport demand estimation is crucial for sustainable transportation planning. Evaluating the impact of sustainable mobility policies starts with a quantitative analysis of travel demand. Achieving transportation decarbonization goals hinges on precise estimations of demand for individual transport modes. Emerging technologies, offering substantial big data at lower costs than traditional methods, play a pivotal role in this context. Starting from these considerations, this study explores the usefulness impact of big data within transport demand estimation. This research focuses on leveraging (big) data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to estimate the evolution of the mobility demand in Italy. Estimation results reveal in the post-COVID-19 era, more than 96 million national daily trips, about 2.6 trips per capita, with a mobile population of more than 37.6 million Italian travelers per day. Overall, this research allows us to conclude that big data better enhances rational decision-making for mobility demand estimation, which is imperative for adeptly planning and allocating investments in transportation infrastructures and services.

Keywords: big data, cloud computing, decision-making, mobility demand, transportation

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Authors: K. H. Reeta, Bhavana Prasher, Mitali Mukerji, Dhwani Dholakia, Sangeeta Khanna, Archana Vats, Shivam Pandey, Sandeep Seth, Subir Kumar Maulik

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Introduction Research has demonstrated a connection between coronary artery disease (CAD) and genetics. We did a deep literature mining using both bioinformatics and manual efforts to identify the susceptible polymorphisms in coronary artery disease. Further, the study sought to validate these findings in an Asian population. Methodology In first phase, we used an automated pipeline which organizes and presents structured information on SNPs, Population and Diseases. The information was obtained by applying Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to approximately 28 million PubMed abstracts. To accomplish this, we utilized Python scripts to extract and curate disease-related data, filter out false positives, and categorize them into 24 hierarchical groups using named Entity Recognition (NER) algorithms. From the extensive research conducted, a total of 466 unique PubMed Identifiers (PMIDs) and 694 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) related to coronary artery disease (CAD) were identified. To refine the selection process, a thorough manual examination of all the studies was carried out. Specifically, SNPs that demonstrated susceptibility to CAD and exhibited a positive Odds Ratio (OR) were selected, and a final pool of 324 SNPs was compiled. The next phase involved validating the identified SNPs in DNA samples of 96 CAD patients and 37 healthy controls from Indian population using Global Screening Array. ResultsThe results exhibited out of 324, only 108 SNPs were expressed, further 4 SNPs showed significant difference of minor allele frequency in cases and controls. These were rs187238 of IL-18 gene, rs731236 of VDR gene, rs11556218 of IL16 gene and rs5882 of CETP gene. Prior researches have reported association of these SNPs with various pathways like endothelial damage, susceptibility of vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms, and reduction of HDL-cholesterol levels, ultimately leading to the development of CAD. Among these, only rs731236 had been studied in Indian population and that too in diabetes and vitamin D deficiency. For the first time, these SNPs were reported to be associated with CAD in Indian population. Conclusion: This pool of 324 SNP s is a unique kind of resource that can help to uncover risk associations in CAD. Here, we validated in Indian population. Further, validation in different populations may offer valuable insights and contribute to the development of a screening tool and may help in enabling the implementation of primary prevention strategies targeted at the vulnerable population.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, single nucleotide polymorphism, susceptible SNP, bioinformatics

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Authors: M. Tammaro, S. Manzo, J. Rimauro, A. Salluzzo, S. Schiavo

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The solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are considered to have a negligible environmental impact compared to the fossil energy. Therefore also the waste management and the corresponding potential environmental hazard needs to be considered. The case of the photovoltaic panel is unique because the time lag from the manufacturing to the decommissioning as waste usually takes 25-30 years. Then the environmental hazard associated with end life of PV panels has been largely related to their metal contents. The principal concern regards the presence of heavy metals as Cd in thin film (TF) modules or Pb and Cr in crystalline silicon (c-Si) panels. At the end of life of PV panels, these dangerous substances could be released in the environment, if special requirements for their disposal are not adopted. Nevertheless, in literature, only a few experimental study about metal emissions from silicon crystalline/thin film panels and the corresponding environmental effect are present. As part of a study funded by the Italian national consortium for the waste collection and recycling (COBAT), the present work was aimed to analyze experimentally the potential release into the environment of hazardous elements, particularly metals, from PV waste. In this paper, for the first time, eighteen releasable metals a large number of photovoltaic panels, by c-Si and TF, manufactured in the last 30 years, together with the environmental effects by a battery of ecotoxicological tests, were investigated. Leaching tests are conducted on the crushed samples of PV module. The test is conducted according to Italian and European Standard procedure for hazard assessment of the granular waste and of the sludge. The sample material is shaken for 24 hours in HDPE bottles with an overhead mixer Rotax 6.8 VELP at indoor temperature and using pure water (18 MΩ resistivity) as leaching solution. The liquid-to-solid ratio was 10 (L/S=10, i.e. 10 liters of water per kg of solid). The ecotoxicological tests were performed in the subsequent 24 hours. A battery of toxicity test with bacteria (Vibrio fisheri), algae (Pseudochirneriella subcapitata) and crustacea (Daphnia magna) was carried out on PV panel leachates obtained as previously described and immediately stored in dark and at 4°C until testing (in the next 24 hours). For understand the actual pollution load, a comparison with the current European and Italian benchmark limits was performed. The trend of leachable metal amount from panels in relation to manufacturing years was then highlighted in order to assess the environmental sustainability of PV technology over time. The experimental results were very heterogeneous and show that the photovoltaic panels could represent an environmental hazard. The experimental results showed that the amounts of some hazardous metals (Pb, Cr, Cd, Ni), for c-Si and TF, exceed the law limits and they are a clear indication of the potential environmental risk of photovoltaic panels "as a waste" without a proper management.

Keywords: photovoltaic panel, environment, ecotoxicity, metals emission

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Authors: M. K. Sheikh, Y. M. Laghari., P. K. Lashari., N. T. Narejo

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The Indus River is one of the longest important rivers of the world in Asia that flows southward through Pakistan, merges into the Arabian Sea near the port city of Karachi in Sindh Province, and forms the Indus Delta. Fish are an important resource for humans worldwide, especially as food. In fish, healthy nutriments are present which are not found in any other meat source because it have a huge quantity of omega- 3 fatty acids, which are very essential for the human body. Ichthyologic surveys were conducted to explore the diversity of freshwater fishes, distribution, abundance and current status of the fishes at different spatial scale of the downstream, Indus River. Total eight stations were selected namely Railo Miyan (RM), Karokho (Kk), Khanpur (Kp), Mullakatiyar (Mk), Wasi Malook Shah (WMS), Branch Morie (BM), Sujawal (Sj) and Jangseer (JS). The study was carried in the period of January 2016 to December 2019 to identify River and biodiversity threats and to suggest recommendations for conservation. The data were analysed by different population diversity index. Altogether, 124 species were recorded belonging to 12 Orders and 43 Families from the downstream of Indus River. Among 124 species, 29% belong to high commercial value and 35% were trash fishes. 31% of fishes were identified as marine/estuarine origin (migratory) and 05% were exotic fish species. Perciformes is the most predominated order, contributing to 41% of families. Among 43 families, the family Cyprinidae was the richest family from all localities of downstream, represented by 24% of fish species demonstrating a significant dominance in the number of species. A significant difference was observed for species abundance in between all sites, the maximum abundance species were found at first location RM having 115 species and minimum observed at the last station JS 56 genera. In the recorded Ichthyofauna, seven groups were found according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature status (IUCN), where a high species ratio was collected, in Least Concern (LC) having 94 species, 11 were found as not evaluated (NE), whereas 8 was identified as near threatened (NT), 1 was recorded as critically endangered (CR), 11 were collected as data deficient (DD), and while 8 was observed as vulnerable (VU) and 3 endangered (EN) species. Different diversity index has been used extensively in environmental studies to estimate the species richness and abundance of ecosystems outputs of their wellness; a positive environment (biodiversity rich) with species at RM had an environmental wellness and biodiversity levels of 4.566% while a negative control environment (biodiversity poor) on last station JS had an environmental wellness and biodiversity levels of 3.931%. The status of fish biodiversity and river has been found under serious threat. Due to the lower diversity of fishes, it became not only venerable for fish but also risky for fishermen. Necessary steps are recommended to protect the biodiversity by conducting further conservative research in this area.

Keywords: ichthyofaunal biodiversity, threatened species, diversity index, Indus River downstream

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Authors: Mohammad R. Bhuyan, Mohammad J. Khattak

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Deterioration of flexible pavements due to crack reflection from its soil-cement base layer is a major concern around the globe. The service life of flexible pavement diminishes significantly because of the reflective cracks. Highway agencies are struggling for decades to prevent or mitigate these cracks in order to increase pavement service lives. The root cause of reflective cracks is the shrinkage crack which occurs in the soil-cement bases during the cement hydration process. The primary factor that causes the shrinkage is the cement content of the soil-cement mixture. With the increase of cement content, the soil-cement base gains strength and durability, which is necessary to withstand the traffic loads. But at the same time, higher cement content creates more shrinkage resulting in more reflective cracks in pavements. Historically, various states of USA have used the soil-cement bases for constructing flexile pavements. State of Louisiana (USA) had been using 8 to 10 percent of cement content to manufacture the soil-cement bases. Such traditional soil-cement bases yield 2.0 MPa (300 psi) 7-day compressive strength and are termed as cement stabilized design (CSD). As these CSD bases generate significant reflective cracks, another design of soil-cement base has been utilized by adding 4 to 6 percent of cement content called cement treated design (CTD), which yields 1.0 MPa (150 psi) 7-day compressive strength. The reduction of cement content in the CTD base is expected to minimize shrinkage cracks thus increasing pavement service lives. Hence, this research study evaluates the long-term field performance of CTD bases with respect to CSD bases used in flexible pavements. Pavement Management System of the state of Louisiana was utilized to select flexible pavement projects with CSD and CTD bases that had good historical record and time-series distress performance data. It should be noted that the state collects roughness and distress data for 1/10th mile section every 2-year period. In total, 120 CSD and CTD projects were analyzed in this research, where more than 145 miles (CTD) and 175 miles (CSD) of roadways data were accepted for performance evaluation and benefit-cost analyses. Here, the service life extension and area based on distress performance were considered as benefits. It was found that CTD bases increased 1 to 5 years of pavement service lives based on transverse cracking as compared to CSD bases. On the other hand, the service lives based on longitudinal and alligator cracking, rutting and roughness index remain the same. Hence, CTD bases provide some service life extension (2.6 years, on average) to the controlling distress; transverse cracking, but it was inexpensive due to its lesser cement content. Consequently, CTD bases become 20% more cost-effective than the traditional CSD bases, when both bases were compared by net benefit-cost ratio obtained from all distress types.

Keywords: cement treated base, cement stabilized base, reflective cracking , service life, flexible pavement

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Authors: Adriana Haulica

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Powered by Machine Learning, Precise medicine is tailored by now to use genetic and molecular profiling, with the aim of optimizing the therapeutic benefits for cohorts of patients. As the majority of Machine Language algorithms come from heuristics, the outputs have contextual validity. This is not very restrictive in the sense that medicine itself is not an exact science. Meanwhile, the progress made in Molecular Biology, Bioinformatics, Computational Biology, and Precise Medicine, correlated with the huge amount of human biology data and the increase in computational power, opens new healthcare challenges. A more accurate diagnosis is needed along with real-time treatments by processing as much as possible from the available information. The purpose of this paper is to present a deeper vision for the future of Artificial Intelligence in Precise medicine. In fact, actual Machine Learning algorithms use standard mathematical knowledge, mostly Euclidian metrics and standard computation rules. The loss of information arising from the classical methods prevents obtaining 100% evidence on the diagnosis process. To overcome these problems, we introduce MEDICOMPILLS, a new architectural concept tool of information processing in Precise medicine that delivers diagnosis and therapy advice. This tool processes poly-field digital resources: global knowledge related to biomedicine in a direct or indirect manner but also technical databases, Natural Language Processing algorithms, and strong class optimization functions. As the name suggests, the heart of this tool is a compiler. The approach is completely new, tailored for omics and clinical data. Firstly, the intrinsic biological intuition is different from the well-known “a needle in a haystack” approach usually used when Machine Learning algorithms have to process differential genomic or molecular data to find biomarkers. Also, even if the input is seized from various types of data, the working engine inside the MEDICOMPILLS does not search for patterns as an integrative tool. This approach deciphers the biological meaning of input data up to the metabolic and physiologic mechanisms, based on a compiler with grammars issued from bio-algebra-inspired mathematics. It translates input data into bio-semantic units with the help of contextual information iteratively until Bio-Logical operations can be performed on the base of the “common denominator “rule. The rigorousness of MEDICOMPILLS comes from the structure of the contextual information on functions, built to be analogous to mathematical “proofs”. The major impact of this architecture is expressed by the high accuracy of the diagnosis. Detected as a multiple conditions diagnostic, constituted by some main diseases along with unhealthy biological states, this format is highly suitable for therapy proposal and disease prevention. The use of MEDICOMPILLS architecture is highly beneficial for the healthcare industry. The expectation is to generate a strategic trend in Precise medicine, making medicine more like an exact science and reducing the considerable risk of errors in diagnostics and therapies. The tool can be used by pharmaceutical laboratories for the discovery of new cures. It will also contribute to better design of clinical trials and speed them up.

Keywords: bio-semantic units, multiple conditions diagnosis, NLP, omics

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Authors: Elena Maria Scalisi

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Currently, photodegradation by nanoparticles (NPs) is a common solution for wastewater treatment. Nanoparticles are efficient for removing organic and inorganic pollutants, heavy metals from wastewater and killing microorganisms through environmentally friendly. In this context, the major representative of photocatalytic technology for industrial wastewater treatment are TiO₂ nanoparticles (TiO₂-NPs). TiO₂-NPs have a strong catalytic activity that depends to their physicochemical properties. Thanks to their small size (between 1-100 nm), nanoparticles occupy less volume, then their surface area increases. The increase in the surface-to-volume ratio results in the increase of the particle surface energy, which improve their reactivity potential. However, these unique properties represent risks to the ecosystems and organisms when unintentionally TiO₂-NPs are release into the environment and absorbed by living organisms. Several studies confirm that there is a high level of interest concerning the safety of TiO₂-NPs in the aquatic environment, furthermore, ecotoxicological tools are useful to correctly evaluate their toxicity. In the current study, we aimed to characterize potential toxic effects of TiO₂-NP suspension to zebrafish during embryo-larval stages to evaluate parameters such as survival rates, malformation, hatching, the overall length of the larvae heartbeat, and biochemical biomarkers that reflect the acute toxicity and sublethal effects of TiO₂-NPs. Zebrafish embryos were exposed to titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO₂-NPs at 1mg/L, 2mg/L, and 4mg/L) from fertilization to the free swimming stage (144hpf). Every day, we recorded the toxicological endpoints, moreover, immunohistochemical analysis has been performed at the end of the exposure. In particular, we have evaluate the expression of the following biomarkers: Heat Shock Protein 70 (HSP70), Poly ADP-Ribose Polymerase-1 (PARP-1), Metallothioneins (MTs). Our results have shown that hatch ability, survival, and malformation rate were not affected by TiO₂ NPs at these exposure levels. However, TiO₂-NPs caused an increase of heartbeat and reduction of body length; at the same time, TiO₂-NPs have inducted the production of ROS and the expression of oxidative stress biomarkers HSP70 and PARP-1. Hight positivity for PARP-1 at all concentration tested was observed. As regards MT, positivity was found in the expression of this biomarker in the whole body of the embryo, with the exception of the end of the tail. Metallothioneins (MT) are biomarkers widely used in environmental monitoring programs for aquatic creatures. At the light of our results i.e. no death until the end of the experiment (144hpf), no malformation and expression of the biomarkers mentioned, it is evident that zebrafish larvae with their natural detoxification pathways are able to resist the presence of toxic substances and then they can tolerate the presence of metal concentrations. However, an excessive oxidative state can compromise cell function, therefore the uncontrolled release of nanoparticles into the environment is severe and must be constantly monitored.

Keywords: nanoparticles, embryo zebrafish, HSP70, PARP-1

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Authors: Jinhui Bak, Bumjin Kim

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The purpose of this study is to analyze how the scientific and mathematical fields (STEM) and liberal arts (A) work together in the STEAM program. In the future STEAM programs that have been designed and developed, the humanities will act not just as a 'tool' for science technology and mathematics, but as a 'core' content to have an equivalent status. STEAM was first introduced to the Republic of Korea in 2011 when the Ministry of Education emphasized fostering creative convergence talent. Many programs have since been developed under the name STEAM, but with the majority of programs focusing on technology education, arts and humanities are considered secondary. As a result, arts is most likely to be accepted as an option that can be excluded from the teachers who run the STEAM program. If what we ultimately pursue through STEAM education is in fostering STEAM literacy, we should no longer turn arts into a tooling area for STEM. Based on this consciousness, this study analyzed over 160 STEAM programs in middle and high schools, which were produced and distributed by the Ministry of Education and the Korea Science and Technology Foundation from 2012 to 2017. The framework of analyses referenced two criteria presented in the related prior studies: normative convergence and technological convergence. In addition, we divide Arts into fine arts and liberal arts and focused on Korean Language Course which is in liberal arts and analyzed what kind of curriculum standards were selected, and what kind of process the Korean language department participated in teaching and learning. In this study, to ensure the reliability of the analysis results, we have chosen to cross-check the individual analysis results of the two researchers and only if they are consistent. We also conducted a reliability check on the analysis results of three middle and high school teachers involved in the STEAM education program. Analyzing 10 programs selected randomly from the analyzed programs, Cronbach's α .853 showed a reliable level. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, the convergence ratio of the liberal arts was lowest in the department of moral at 14.58%. Second, the normative convergence is 28.19%, which is lower than that of the technological convergence. Third, the language and achievement criteria selected for the program were limited to functional areas such as listening, talking, reading and writing. This means that the convergence of Korean language departments is made only by the necessary tools to communicate opinions or promote scientific products. In this study, we intend to compare these results with the STEAM programs in the United States and abroad to explore what elements or key concepts are required for the achievement criteria for Korean language and curriculum. This is meaningful in that the humanities field (A), including Korean, provides basic data that can be fused into 'equivalent qualifications' with science (S), technical engineering (TE) and mathematics (M).

Keywords: Korean STEAM Programme, liberal arts, STEAM curriculum, STEAM Literacy, STEM

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Authors: Abdulaziz Alakeel, Roaa Alamri, Abdulrahman Alomair, Mohammed Fouda

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Introduction: Ibrutinib is a selective, potent, and irreversible small-molecule inhibitor of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK). It forms a covalent bond with a cysteine residue (CYS-481) at the active site of Btk, leading to inhibition of Btk enzymatic activity. The drug is indicated to treat certain type of cancers such as mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), chronic lymphocytic leukaemia and Waldenström's macroglobulinaemia (WM). Cardiac failure is a condition referred to inability of heart muscle to pump adequate blood to human body organs. There are multiple types of cardiac failure including left and right-sided heart failure, systolic and diastolic heart failures. The aim of this review is to evaluate the risk of cardiac failure associated with the use of ibrutinib and to suggest regulatory recommendations if required. Methodology: Signal Detection team at the National Pharmacovigilance Center (NPC) of Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA) performed a comprehensive signal review using its national database as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) database (VigiBase), to retrieve related information for assessing the causality between cardiac failure and ibrutinib. We used the WHO- Uppsala Monitoring Centre (UMC) criteria as standard for assessing the causality of the reported cases. Results: Case Review: The number of resulted cases for the combined drug/adverse drug reaction are 212 global ICSRs as of July 2020. The reviewers have selected and assessed the causality for the well-documented ICSRs with completeness scores of 0.9 and above (35 ICSRs); the value 1.0 presents the highest score for best-written ICSRs. Among the reviewed cases, more than half of them provides supportive association (four probable and 15 possible cases). Data Mining: The disproportionality of the observed and the expected reporting rate for drug/adverse drug reaction pair is estimated using information component (IC), a tool developed by WHO-UMC to measure the reporting ratio. Positive IC reflects higher statistical association while negative values indicates less statistical association, considering the null value equal to zero. The results of (IC=1.5) revealed a positive statistical association for the drug/ADR combination, which means “Ibrutinib” with “Cardiac Failure” have been observed more than expected when compared to other medications available in WHO database. Conclusion: Health regulators and health care professionals must be aware for the potential risk of cardiac failure associated with ibrutinib and the monitoring of any signs or symptoms in treated patients is essential. The weighted cumulative evidences identified from causality assessment of the reported cases and data mining are sufficient to support a causal association between ibrutinib and cardiac failure.

Keywords: cardiac failure, drug safety, ibrutinib, pharmacovigilance, signal detection

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Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

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Authors: Martin Grootveld, Benita Percival, Sarah Moumtaz, Kerry L. Grootveld

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Objectives/Hypotheses: The adverse health effect potential of dietary lipid oxidation products (LOPs) has evoked much clinical interest. Therefore, we employed a ¹H NMR-linked Principal Component Regression (PCR) chemometrics modelling strategy to explore relationships between data matrices comprising (1) aldehydic LOP concentrations generated in culinary oils/fats when exposed to laboratory-simulated shallow frying practices, and (2) the prior saturated (SFA), monounsaturated (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) contents of such frying media (FM), together with their heating time-points at a standard frying temperature (180 ^oC). Methods: Corn, sunflower, extra virgin olive, rapeseed, linseed, canola, coconut and MUFA-rich algae frying oils, together with butter and lard, were heated according to laboratory-simulated shallow-frying episodes at 180 ^oC, and FM samples were collected at time-points of 0, 5, 10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 min. (n = 6 replicates per sample). Aldehydes were determined by ¹H NMR analysis (Bruker AV 400 MHz spectrometer). The first (dependent output variable) PCR data matrix comprised aldehyde concentration scores vectors (PC1* and PC2*), whilst the second (predictor) one incorporated those from the fatty acid content/heating time variables (PC1-PC4) and their first-order interactions. Results: Structurally complex trans,trans- and cis,trans-alka-2,4-dienals, 4,5-epxy-trans-2-alkenals and 4-hydroxy-/4-hydroperoxy-trans-2-alkenals (group I aldehydes predominantly arising from PUFA peroxidation) strongly and positively loaded on PC1*, whereas n-alkanals and trans-2-alkenals (group II aldehydes derived from both MUFA and PUFA hydroperoxides) strongly and positively loaded on PC2*. PCR analysis of these scores vectors (SVs) demonstrated that PCs 1 (positively-loaded linoleoylglycerols and [linoleoylglycerol]:[SFA] content ratio), 2 (positively-loaded oleoylglycerols and negatively-loaded SFAs), 3 (positively-loaded linolenoylglycerols and [PUFA]:[SFA] content ratios), and 4 (exclusively orthogonal sampling time-points) all powerfully contributed to aldehydic PC1* SVs (p 10^-3 to < 10^-9), as did all PC1-3 x PC4 interaction ones (p 10^-5 to < 10^-9). PC2* was also markedly dependent on all the above PC SVs (PC2 > PC1 and PC3), and the interactions of PC1 and PC2 with PC4 (p < 10^-9 in each case), but not the PC3 x PC4 contribution. Conclusions: NMR-linked PCR analysis is a valuable strategy for (1) modelling the generation of aldehydic LOPs in heated cooking oils and other FM, and (2) tracking their unsaturated fatty acid (UFA) triacylglycerol sources therein.

Keywords: frying oils, lipid oxidation products, frying episodes, chemometrics, principal component regression, NMR Analysis, cytotoxic/genotoxic aldehydes

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Authors: C. Amer, M. Sahin

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The design of an optimised horizontal axis 5-meter-long wind turbine rotor blade in according with IEC 61400-2 standard is a research and development project in order to fulfil the requirements of high efficiency of torque from wind production and to optimise the structural components to the lightest and strongest way possible. For this purpose, a research study is presented here by focusing on the structural characteristics of a composite wind turbine blade via finite element modelling and analysis tools. In this work, first, the required data regarding the general geometrical parts are gathered. Then, the airfoil geometries are created at various sections along the span of the blade by using CATIA software to obtain the two surfaces, namely; the suction and the pressure side of the blade in which there is a hat shaped fibre reinforced plastic spar beam, so-called chassis starting at 0.5m from the root of the blade and extends up to 4 m and filled with a foam core. The root part connecting the blade to the main rotor differential metallic hub having twelve hollow threaded studs is then modelled. The materials are assigned as two different types of glass fabrics, polymeric foam core material and the steel-balsa wood combination for the root connection parts. The glass fabrics are applied using hand wet lay-up lamination with epoxy resin as METYX L600E10C-0, is the unidirectional continuous fibres and METYX XL800E10F having a tri-axial architecture with fibres in the 0,+45,-45 degree orientations in a ratio of 2:1:1. Divinycell H45 is used as the polymeric foam. The finite element modelling of the blade is performed via MSC PATRAN software with various meshes created on each structural part considering shell type for all surface geometries, and lumped mass were added to simulate extra adhesive locations. For the static analysis, the boundary conditions are assigned as fixed at the root through aforementioned bolts, where for dynamic analysis both fixed-free and free-free boundary conditions are made. By also taking the mesh independency into account, MSC NASTRAN is used as a solver for both analyses. The static analysis aims the tip deflection of the blade under its own weight and the dynamic analysis comprises normal mode dynamic analysis performed in order to obtain the natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes focusing the first five in and out-of-plane bending and the torsional modes of the blade. The analyses results of this study are then used as a benchmark prior to modal testing, where the experiments over the produced wind turbine rotor blade has approved the analytical calculations.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, fiber reinforced composites, horizontal axis wind turbine blade, hand-wet layup, modal testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Danny Alexander R. Moreno, Gustavo L. Sartorello, Yuli Andrea P. Bermudez, Richard R. Lobo, Ives Claudio S. Bueno, Augusto H. Gameiro

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Meat production is a significant sector for Brazil's economy; however, the agricultural segment has suffered censure regarding the negative impacts on the environment, which consequently results in climate change. Therefore, it is essential the implementation of nutritional strategies that can improve the environmental performance of livestock. This research aimed to estimate the environmental impact and profitability of the use of yerba mate extract (Ilex paraguariensis) as an additive in the feeding of feedlot lamb. Thirty-six castrated male lambs (average weight of 23.90 ± 3.67 kg and average age of 75 days) were randomly assigned to four experimental diets with different levels of inclusion of yerba mate extract (0, 1, 2, and 4 %) based on dry matter. The animals were confined for fifty-three days and fed with 60:40 corn silage to concentrate ratio. As an indicator of environmental impact, the carbon footprint (CF) was measured as kg of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂-eq) per kg of body weight produced (BWP). The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as methane (CH₄) generated from enteric fermentation, were calculated using the sulfur hexafluoride gas tracer (SF₆) technique; while the CH₄, nitrous oxide (N₂O - emissions generated by feces and urine), and carbon dioxide (CO₂ - emissions generated by concentrate and silage processing) were estimated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology. To estimate profitability, the gross margin was used, which is the total revenue minus the total cost; the latter is composed of the purchase of animals and food. The boundaries of this study considered only the lamb fattening system. The enteric CH₄ emission from the lamb was the largest source of on-farm GHG emissions (47%-50%), followed by CH₄ and N₂O emissions from manure (10%-20%) and CO₂ emission from the concentrate, silage, and fossil energy (17%-5%). The treatment that generated the least environmental impact was the group with 4% of yerba mate extract (YME), which showed a 3% reduction in total GHG emissions in relation to the control (1462.5 and 1505.5 kg CO₂-eq, respectively). However, the scenario with 1% YME showed an increase in emissions of 7% compared to the control group. In relation to CF, the treatment with 4% YME had the lowest value (4.1 kg CO₂-eq/kg LW) compared with the other groups. Nevertheless, although the 4% YME inclusion scenario showed the lowest CF, the gross margin decreased by 36% compared to the control group (0% YME), due to the cost of YME as a food additive. The results showed that the extract has the potential for use in reducing GHG. However, the cost of implementing this input as a mitigation strategy increased the production cost. Therefore, it is important to develop political strategies that help reduce the acquisition costs of input that contribute to the search for the environmental and economic benefit of the livestock sector.

Keywords: meat production, natural additives, profitability, sheep

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Asghar Ali, Narjis Khatoon

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This study focuses on the presence of wage differentials in Pakistan and also on the determinants that originate it. Since there are a smaller number of studies that are conducted on this topic in Pakistan, the current study aims to contribute in bridging the existing gap in this particular research genre. Hence, this study not only generates the desired results specific focus but it also contributes to the overall empirical work on the Pakistan economy. The preceding works which have been done to research wage determinants and wage differentials have used numerous different theories and approaches to reach their goals. The current study, in order to analyze the determinants of wage differentials in the developing economy, deals with the study of a number of such theories and approaches that are supposed as being beneficial for the purpose. This study undertakes the explanation of wage differentials in Pakistan by focusing on wage differentials in public and private sectors, formal and informal sectors, and major occupational groups. The study uses 'Wage Theory' to examine wage differentials among male and female employees in public and private sectors on varied levels of working conditions. This study also uses 'Segmented Labor Market Theory' to determine the wage differential in both public and private sectors, formal and informal, and major occupational groups in Pakistan. So the author has used various econometric techniques in order to explain and test these theories and to find out the required results. This study has employed seven different cross-sectional Labour Force Surveys for the time period between 2006-07 to 2012-13. Gender equality is not only a policy reform agenda for developing countries but also an important goal of Millennium Development Goals. This study investigates the nexus between wage inequality and economic growth and detects co-integration between gender wage differential and economic growth using ARDL bound test. It is confirmed from the empirical results that there exists long-run relationship between economic growth and wage differential. Our study indicated that half of the total female employees from fourteen major cities of Pakistan were employed in the public sector. Out of total female employees in private sector, 66 percent are employed in the formal sector, and 33 percent are working in the informal sector. Results also indicated that both men and women were paid more in the public sector compared to the private sector counterparts. Among the total female employees, only 9 percent had received any formal training, 52% were married and average years of schooling were 11 years. Further, our findings regarding wage differential between genders indicate that wage gap is lower in public sector as compared to private sector. In proportion, gender wage ratio was found to be 0.96, 0.62 and 0.66 in public, formal private and informal private sectors respectively. This suggests that in this case, private sector female employees with the same pay structure are compensated at a lower endowments rate as then public sector workers as compared to their counter parts.

Keywords: wage differentials, formal, informal, economic growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Dipankar Saha, J. P. Singh, C. B. Pandey

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Indian Thar desert being the seventh largest in the world is the main hot sand desert occupies nearly 385,000km2 and about 9% of the area of the country harbours several species likely the flora of 682 species (63 introduced species) belonging to 352 genera and 87 families. The degree of endemism of plant species in the Thar desert is 6.4 percent, which is relatively higher than the degree of endemism in the Sahara desert which is very significant for the conservationist to envisage. The advent and development of computer technology for digitization and data base management coupled with the rapidly increasing importance of biodiversity conservation resulted in the invention of biodiversity informatics as discipline of basic sciences with multiple applications. Aichi Target 19 as an outcome of Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD) specifically mandates the development of an advanced and shared biodiversity knowledge base. Information on species distributions in space is the crux of effective management of biodiversity in the rapidly changing world. The efficiency of biodiversity management is being increased rapidly by various stakeholders like researchers, policymakers, and funding agencies with the knowledge and application of biodiversity informatics. Herbarium specimens being a vital repository for biodiversity conservation especially in climate change scenario the digitization process usually aims to improve access and to preserve delicate specimens and in doing so creating large sets of images as a part of the existing repository as arid plant information facility for long-term future usage. As the leaf characters are important for describing taxa and distinguishing between them and they can be measured from herbarium specimens as well. As a part of this activity, laminar characterization (leaves being the most important characters in assessing climate change impact) initially resulted in classification of more than thousands collections belonging to ten families like Acanthaceae, Aizoaceae, Amaranthaceae, Asclepiadaceae, Anacardeaceae, Apocynaceae, Asteraceae, Aristolochiaceae, Berseraceae and Bignoniaceae etc. Taxonomic diversity indices has also been worked out being one of the important domain of biodiversity informatics approaches. The digitization process also encompasses workflows which incorporate automated systems to enable us to expand and speed up the digitisation process. The digitisation workflows used to be on a modular system which has the potential to be scaled up. As they are being developed with a geo-referencing tool and additional quality control elements and finally placing specimen images and data into a fully searchable, web-accessible database. Our effort in this paper is to elucidate the role of BIs, present effort of database development of the existing botanical collection of institute repository. This effort is expected to be considered as a part of various global initiatives having an effective biodiversity information facility. This will enable access to plant biodiversity data that are fit-for-use by scientists and decision makers working on biodiversity conservation and sustainable development in the region and iso-climatic situation of the world.

Keywords: biodiversity informatics, climate change, digitization, herbarium, laminar characters, web accessible interface

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Xuerui Niu, Bolin Wang, Xinchuang Zhang, Xiaohua Ma, Bin Hou, Ling Yang

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The application of discrete GaN-based power switches requires the collaboration of silicon-based peripheral circuit structures. However, the packages and interconnection between the Si and GaN devices can introduce parasitic effects to the circuit, which has great impacts on GaN power transistors. GaN-based monolithic power integration technology is an emerging solution which can improve the stability of circuits and allow the GaN-based devices to achieve more functions. Complementary logic circuits consisting of GaN-based E-mode p-channel heterostructure field-effect transistors (p-HFETs) and E-mode n-channel HEMTs can be served as the gate drivers. E-mode p-HFETs with recessed gate have attracted increasing interest because of the low leakage current and large gate swing. However, they suffer from a poor interface between the gate dielectric and polarized nitride layers. The reliability of p-HFETs is analyzed and discussed in this work. In circuit applications, the inverter is always operated with dynamic gate voltage (VGS) rather than a constant VGS. Therefore, dynamic electrical stress has been simulated to resemble the operation conditions for E-mode p-HFETs. The dynamic electrical stress condition is as follows. VGS is a square waveform switching from -5 V to 0 V, VDS is fixed, and the source grounded. The frequency of the square waveform is 100kHz with the rising/falling time of 100 ns and duty ratio of 50%. The effective stress time is 1000s. A number of stress tests are carried out. The stress was briefly interrupted to measure the linear IDS-VGS, saturation IDS-VGS, As VGS switches from -5 V to 0 V and VDS = 0 V, devices are under negative-bias-instability (NBI) condition. Holes are trapped at the interface of oxide layer and GaN channel layer, which results in the reduction of VTH. The negative shift of VTH is serious at the first 10s and then changes slightly with the following stress time. However, different phenomenon is observed when VDS reduces to -5V. VTH shifts negatively during stress condition, and the variation in VTH increases with time, which is different from that when VDS is 0V. Two mechanisms exists in this condition. On the one hand, the electric field in the gate region is influenced by the drain voltage, so that the trapping behavior of holes in the gate region changes. The impact of the gate voltage is weakened. On the other hand, large drain voltage can induce the hot holes generation and lead to serious hot carrier stress (HCS) degradation with time. The poor-quality interface between the oxide layer and GaN channel layer at the gate region makes a major contribution to the high-density interface traps, which will greatly influence the reliability of devices. These results emphasize that the improved etching and pretreatment processes needs to be developed so that high-performance GaN complementary logics with enhanced stability can be achieved.

Keywords: GaN-based E-mode p-HFETs, dynamic electric stress, threshold voltage, monolithic power integration technology

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Authors: Dace Grauda, Inta Belogrudova, Alexei Katashev, Linda Lancere, Isaak Rashal

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The goal of study was the elaboration of easy applicable flow cytometry method for detection of influence of abiotic stress factors on plants, which could be useful for detection of environmental stresses in urban areas. The lime tree Tillia vulgaris H. is a popular tree species used for urban landscaping in Europe and is one of the main species of street greenery in Riga, Latvia. Tree decline and low vitality has observed in the central part of Riga. For this reason lime trees were select as a model object for the investigation. During the period of end of June and beginning of July 12 samples from different urban environment locations as well as plant material from a greenhouse were collected. BD FACSJazz® cell sorter (BD Biosciences, USA) with flow cytometer function was used to test viability of plant cells. The method was based on changes of relative fluorescence intensity of cells in blue laser (488 nm) after influence of stress factors. SpheroTM rainbow calibration particles (3.0–3.4 μm, BD Biosciences, USA) in phosphate buffered saline (PBS) were used for calibration of flow cytometer. BD PharmingenTM PBS (BD Biosciences, USA) was used for flow cytometry assays. The mean fluorescence intensity information from the purified cell suspension samples was recorded. Preliminary, multiple gate sizes and shapes were tested to find one with the lowest CV. It was found that low CV can be obtained if only the densest part of plant cells forward scatter/side scatter profile is analysed because in this case plant cells are most similar in size and shape. The young pollen cells in one nucleus stage were found as the best for detection of influence of abiotic stress. For experiments only fresh plant material was used– the buds of Tillia vulgaris with diameter 2 mm. For the cell suspension (in vitro culture) establishment modified protocol of microspore culture was applied. The cells were suspended in the MS (Murashige and Skoog) medium. For imitation of dust of urban area SiO2 nanoparticles with concentration 0.001 g/ml were dissolved in distilled water. Into 10 ml of cell suspension 1 ml of SiO2 nanoparticles suspension was added, then cells were incubated in speed shaking regime for 1 and 3 hours. As a stress factor the irradiation of cells for 20 min by UV was used (Hamamatsu light source L9566-02A, L10852 lamp, A10014-50-0110), maximum relative intensity (100%) at 365 nm and at ~310 nm (75%). Before UV irradiation the suspension of cells were placed onto a thin layer on a filter paper disk (diameter 45 mm) in a Petri dish with solid MS media. Cells without treatment were used as a control. Experiments were performed at room temperature (23-25 °C). Using flow cytometer BS FACS Software cells plot was created to determine the densest part, which was later gated using oval-shaped gate. Gate included from 95 to 99% of all cells. To determine relative fluorescence of cells logarithmic fluorescence scale in arbitrary fluorescence units were used. 3x103 gated cells were analysed from the each sample. The significant differences were found among relative fluorescence of cells from different trees after treatment with SiO2 nanoparticles and UV irradiation in comparison with the control.

Keywords: flow cytometry, fluorescence, SiO2 nanoparticles, UV irradiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Jeanne Leblond, Warren Viricel, Amira Mbarek

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Although several products have reached the market, gene therapeutics are still in their first stages and require optimization. It is possible to improve their lacking efficiency by the use of carefully engineered vectors, able to carry the genetic material through each of the biological barriers they need to cross. In particular, getting inside the cell is a major challenge, because these hydrophilic nucleic acids have to cross the lipid-rich plasmatic and/or endosomal membrane, before being degraded into lysosomes. It takes less than one hour for newly endocytosed liposomes to reach highly acidic lysosomes, meaning that the degradation of the carried gene occurs rapidly, thus limiting the transfection efficiency. We propose to use a new pH-sensitive lipid able to change its conformation upon protonation at endosomal pH values, leading to the disruption of the lipidic bilayer and thus to the fast release of the nucleic acids into the cytosol. It is expected that this new pH-sensitive mechanism promote endosomal escape of the gene, thereby its transfection efficiency. The main challenge of this work was to design a preparation presenting fast-responding lipidic bilayer destabilization properties at endosomal pH 5 while remaining stable at blood pH value and during storage. A series of pH-sensitive lipids able to perform a conformational switch upon acidification were designed and synthesized. Liposomes containing these switchable lipids, as well as co-lipids were prepared and characterized. The liposomes were stable at 4°C and pH 7.4 for several months. Incubation with siRNA led to the full entrapment of nucleic acids as soon as the positive/negative charge ratio was superior to 2. The best liposomal formulation demonstrated a silencing efficiency up to 10% on HeLa cells, very similar to a commercial agent, with a lowest toxicity than the commercial agent. Using flow cytometry and microscopy assays, we demonstrated that drop of pH was required for the transfection efficiency, since bafilomycin blocked the transfection efficiency. Additional evidence was brought by the synthesis of a negative control lipid, which was unable to switch its conformation, and consequently exhibited no transfection ability. Mechanistic studies revealed that the uptake was mediated through endocytosis, by clathrin and caveolae pathways, as reported for previous lipid nanoparticle systems. This potent system was used for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia. The switchable lipids were able to knockdown PCSK9 expression on human hepatocytes (Huh-7). Its efficiency is currently evaluated on in vivo mice model of PCSK9 KO mice. In summary, we designed and optimized a new cationic pH-sensitive lipid for gene delivery. Its transfection efficiency is similar to the best available commercial agent, without the usually associated toxicity. The promising results lead to its use for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia on a mice model. Anticancer applications and pulmonary chronic disease are also currently investigated.

Keywords: liposomes, siRNA, pH-sensitive, molecular switch

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Gideon J. Bonthuys, Marco van Dijk, Jay N. Bhagwan

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Small scale hydropower used to play a very important role in the provision of energy to urban and rural areas of South Africa. The national electricity grid, however, expanded and offered cheap, coal generated electricity and a large number of hydropower systems were decommissioned. Unfortunately, large numbers of households and communities will not be connected to the national electricity grid for the foreseeable future due to high cost of transmission and distribution systems to remote communities due to the relatively low electricity demand within rural communities and the allocation of current expenditure on upgrading and constructing of new coal fired power stations. This necessitates the development of feasible alternative power generation technologies. A feasibility and implementation model was developed to assist in designing and financially evaluating small-scale hydropower (SSHP) plants. Several sites were identified using the model. The SSHP plants were designed for the selected sites and the designs for the different selected sites were priced using pricing models (civil, mechanical and electrical aspects). Following feasibility studies done on the designed and priced SSHP plants, a feasibility analysis was done and a design chart developed for future similar potential SSHP plant projects. The methodology followed in conducting the feasibility analysis for other potential sites consisted of developing cost and income/saving formulae, developing net present value (NPV) formulae, Capital Cost Comparison Ratio (CCCR) and levelised cost formulae for SSHP projects for the different types of plant installations. It included setting up a model for the development of a design chart for a SSHP, calculating the NPV, CCCR and levelised cost for the different scenarios within the model by varying different parameters within the developed formulae, setting up the design chart for the different scenarios within the model and analyzing and interpreting results. From the interpretation of the develop design charts for feasible SSHP in can be seen that turbine and distribution line cost are the major influences on the cost and feasibility of SSHP. High head, short transmission line and islanded mini-grid SSHP installations are the most feasible and that the levelised cost of SSHP is high for low power generation sites. The main conclusion from the study is that the levelised cost of SSHP projects indicate that the cost of SSHP for low energy generation is high compared to the levelised cost of grid connected electricity supply; however, the remoteness of SSHP for rural electrification and the cost of infrastructure to connect remote rural communities to the local or national electricity grid provides a low CCCR and renders SSHP for rural electrification feasible on this basis.

Keywords: cost, feasibility, rural electrification, small-scale hydropower

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Jesús Horacio, Alfredo Ollero, Víctor Bouzas-Blanco, Augusto Pérez-Alberti

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Rivers have traditionally been classified, assessed and managed in terms of hydrological, chemical and / or biological criteria. Geomorphological classifications had in the past a secondary role, although proposals like River Styles Framework, Catchment Baseline Survey or Stroud Rural Sustainable Drainage Project did incorporate geomorphology for management decision-making. In recent years many studies have been attracted to the geomorphological component. The geomorphological processes and their associated forms determine the structure of a river system. Understanding these processes and forms is a critical component of the sustainable rehabilitation of aquatic ecosystems. The fluvial auto-classification approach suggests that a river is a self-built natural system, with processes and forms designed to effectively preserve their ecological function (hydrologic, sedimentological and biological regime). Fluvial systems are formed by a wide range of elements with multiple non-linear interactions on different spatial and temporal scales. Besides, the fluvial auto-classification concept is built using data from the river itself, so that each classification developed is peculiar to the river studied. The variables used in the classification are specific stream power and mean grain size. A discriminant analysis showed that these variables are the best characterized processes and forms. The statistical technique applied allows to get an individual discriminant equation for each geomorphological type. The geomorphological classification was developed using sites with high naturalness. Each site is a control point of high ecological and geomorphological quality. The changes in the conditions of the control points will be quickly recognizable, and easy to apply a right management measures to recover the geomorphological type. The study focused on Galicia (NW Spain) and the mapping was made analyzing 122 control points (sites) distributed over eight river basins. In sum, this study provides a method for fluvial geomorphological classification that works as an open and flexible tool underlying the fluvial auto-classification concept. The hydrographic mapping is the visual expression of the results, such that each river has a particular map according to its geomorphological characteristics. Each geomorphological type is represented by a particular type of hydraulic geometry (channel width, width-depth ratio, hydraulic radius, etc.). An alteration of this geometry is indicative of a geomorphological disturbance (whether natural or anthropogenic). Hydrographic mapping is also dynamic because its meaning changes if there is a modification in the specific stream power and/or the mean grain size, that is, in the value of their equations. The researcher has to check annually some of the control points. This procedure allows to monitor the geomorphology quality of the rivers and to see if there are any alterations. The maps are useful to researchers and managers, especially for conservation work and river restoration.

Keywords: fluvial auto-classification concept, mapping, geomorphology, river

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: R. Christopher, C. Brandt, N. Damons

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Background: The sequence of prevention model states that by constant assessment of injury, injury mechanisms and risk factors are identified, highlighting that collecting and recording of data is a core approach for preventing injuries. Several screening tools are available for use in the clinical setting. These screening techniques only recently received research attention, hence there is a dearth of inconsistent and controversial data regarding their applicability, validity, and reliability. Several systematic reviews related to common soccer injuries have been conducted; however, none of them addressed the screening tools for common soccer injuries. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a review of screening tools and their accuracy for common injuries in soccer. Methods: A systematic scoping review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were used to access suitable studies. Some of the key search terms included: injury screening, screening, screening tool accuracy, injury prevalence, injury prediction, accuracy, validity, specificity, reliability, sensitivity. All types of English studies dating back to the year 2000 were included. Two blind independent reviewers selected and appraised articles on a 9-point scale for inclusion as well as for the risk of bias with the ACROBAT-NRSI tool. Data were extracted and summarized in tables. Plot data analysis was done, and sensitivity and specificity were analyzed with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The initial search yielded 95 studies, of which 21 were duplicates, and 54 excluded. A total of 10 observational studies were included for the analysis: 3 studies were analysed quantitatively while the remaining 7 were analysed qualitatively. Seven studies were graded low and three studies high risk of bias. Only high methodological studies (score > 9) were included for analysis. The pooled studies investigated tools such as the Functional Movement Screening (FMS™), the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS), the Tuck Jump Assessment, the Soccer Injury Movement Screening (SIMS), and the conventional hamstrings to quadriceps ratio. The accuracy of screening tools was of high reliability, sensitivity and specificity (calculated as ICC 0.68, 95% CI: 52-0.84; and 0.64, 95% CI: 0.61-0.66 respectively; I² = 13.2%, P=0.316). Conclusion: Based on the pooled results from the included studies, the FMS™ has a good inter-rater and intra-rater reliability. FMS™ is a screening tool capable of screening for common soccer injuries, and individual FMS™ scores are a better determinant of performance in comparison with the overall FMS™ score. Although meta-analysis could not be done for all the included screening tools, qualitative analysis also indicated good sensitivity and specificity of the individual tools. Higher levels of evidence are, however, needed for implication in evidence-based practice.

Keywords: accuracy, screening tools, sensitivity, soccer injuries, specificity

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Waisea Votadroka, Bert Van Bavel

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The most commonly consumed shellfish species produced in the Pacific, shellfish and tuna fish, were investigated for the occurrence of a range of brominated and chlorinated contaminants in order to establish current levels. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) were analysed in the muscle of tuna species Katsuwonis pelamis, yellow fin tuna, and shellfish species from the Fiji Islands. The investigation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), furans (PCDFs) and polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDE No.47) in tuna and shellfish in Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Fiji is necessary due to the lack of research data in the Pacific region. The health risks involved in the consumption of marine foods laced with toxic organo-chlorinated and brominated compounds makes in the analyses of these compounds in marine foods important particularly when Pacific communities rely on these resources as their main diet. The samples were homogenized in a motor with anhydrous sodium sulphate in the ratio of 1:3 (muscle) and 1:4-1:5 (roe and butter). The tuna and shellfish samples were homogenized and freeze dried at the sampling location at the Institute of Applied Science, Fiji. All samples were stored in amber glss jars at -18 ° C until extraction at Orebro University. PCDD/Fs, PCBs and pesticides were all analysed using an Autospec Ultina HRGC/HRMS operating at 10,000 resolutions with EI ionization at 35 eV. All the measurements were performed in the selective ion recording mode (SIR), monitoring the two most abundant ions of the molecular cluster (PCDD/Fs and PCBs). Results indicated that the Fiji Composite sample for Batissa violacea range 0.7-238.6 pg/g lipid; Fiji sample composite Anadara antiquate range 1.6 – 808.6 pg/g lipid; Solomon Islands Katsuwonis Pelamis 7.5-3770.7 pg/g lipid; Solomon Islands Yellow Fin tuna 2.1 -778.4 pg/g lipid; Kiribati Katsuwonis Pelamis 4.8-1410 pg/g lipids. The study has demonstrated that these species are good bio-indicators of the presence of these toxic organic pollutants in edible marine foods. Our results suggest that for pesticides levels, p,p-DDE is the most dominant for all the groups and seems to be highest at 565.48 pg/g lipid in composite Batissa violacea from Fiji. For PBDE no.47 in comparing all samples, the composite Batissa violacea from Fiji had the highest level of 118.20 pg/g lipid. Based upon this study, the contamination levels found in the study species were quite lower compared with levels reported in impacted ecosystems around the world

Keywords: polychlorinated biphenyl, polybrominated diphenylethers, pesticides, organoclorinated pesticides, PBDEs

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: S. Maniruzzaman, N. Ramanujam, Qazi Akhter Rasool, Swapan Kumar Biswas, P. Prasad, Chandrakanta Ojha

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Landslide is one of the major natural disasters in South Asian countries. Applying 2D Electrical Resistivity Tomographic Imaging estimation of geometry, thickness, and depth of failure zone of the landslide can be made. Landslide is a pertinent problem in Nilgris plateau next to Himalaya. Nilgris range consists of hard Archean metamorphic rocks. Intense weathering prevailed during the Pre-Cambrian time had deformed the rocks up to 45m depth. The landslides are dominant in the southern and eastern part of plateau of is comparatively smaller than the northern drainage basins, as it has low density of drainage; coarse texture permitted the more of infiltration of rainwater, whereas in the northern part of the plateau entombed with high density of drainage pattern and fine texture with less infiltration than run off, and low to the susceptible to landslide. To get comprehensive information about the landslide zone 2D Electrical Resistivity Tomographic imaging study with CRM 500 Resistivity meter are used in Coonoor– Mettupalyam sector of Nilgiris plateau. To calculate Factor of Safety the infinite slope model of Brunsden and Prior is used. Factor of Safety can be expressed (FS) as the ratio of resisting forces to disturbing forces. If FS < 1 disturbing forces are larger than resisting forces and failure may occur. The geotechnical parameters of soil samples are calculated on the basis upon the apparent resistivity values for litho units of measured from 2D ERT image of the landslide zone. Relationship between friction angles for various soil properties is established by simple regression analysis from apparent resistivity data. Increase of water content in slide zone reduces the effectiveness of the shearing resistance and increase the sliding movement. Time-lapse resistivity changes to slope failure is determined through geophysical Factor of Safety which depends on resistivity and site topography. This ERT technique infers soil property at variable depths in wider areas. This approach to retrieve the soil property and overcomes the limit of the point of information provided by rain gauges and porous probes. Monitoring of slope stability without altering soil structure through the ERT technique is non-invasive with low cost. In landslide prone area an automated Electrical Resistivity Tomographic Imaging system should be installed permanently with electrode networks to monitor the hydraulic precursors to monitor landslide movement.

Keywords: 2D ERT, landslide, safety factor, slope stability

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Authors: Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Chetra Mang, Xavier Lorang

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Thanks to the additive manufacturing process, lattice structures are replacing the traditional structures in aeronautical and automobile industries. In order to evaluate the mechanical response of the lattice structures, one has to resort to numerical techniques. Ansys is a globally well-known and trusted commercial software that allows us to model the lattice structures and analyze their mechanical responses using either solid or beam elements. In this software, a script may be used to systematically generate the lattice structures for any size. On the one hand, solid elements allow us to correctly model the contact between the substrates (the supports of the lattice structure) and the lattice structure, the local plasticity, and the junctions of the microbeams. However, their computational cost increases rapidly with the size of the lattice structure. On the other hand, although beam elements reduce the computational cost drastically, it doesn’t correctly model the contact between the lattice structures and the substrates nor the junctions of the microbeams. Also, the notion of local plasticity is not valid anymore. Moreover, the deformed shape of the lattice structure doesn’t correspond to the deformed shape of the lattice structure using 3D solid elements. In this work, motivated by the pros and cons of the 3D and beam models, a numerically hybrid model is presented for the lattice structures to reduce the computational cost of the simulations while avoiding the aforementioned drawbacks of the beam elements. This approach consists of the utilization of solid elements for the junctions and beam elements for the microbeams connecting the corresponding junctions to each other. When the global response of the structure is linear, the results from the hybrid models are in good agreement with the ones from the 3D models for body-centered cubic with z-struts (BCCZ) and body-centered cubic without z-struts (BCC) lattice structures. However, the hybrid models have difficulty to converge when the effect of large deformation and local plasticity are considerable in the BCCZ structures. Furthermore, the effect of the junction’s size of the hybrid models on the results is investigated. For BCCZ lattice structures, the results are not affected by the junction’s size. This is also valid for BCC lattice structures as long as the ratio of the junction’s size to the diameter of the microbeams is greater than 2. The hybrid model can take into account the geometric defects. As a demonstration, the point clouds of two lattice structures are parametrized in a platform called LATANA (LATtice ANAlysis) developed by IRT-SystemX. In this process, for each microbeam of the lattice structures, an ellipse is fitted to capture the effect of shape variation and roughness. Each ellipse is represented by three parameters; semi-major axis, semi-minor axis, and angle of rotation. Having the parameters of the ellipses, the lattice structures are constructed in Spaceclaim (ANSYS) using the geometrical hybrid approach. The results show a negligible discrepancy between the hybrid and 3D models, while the computational cost of the hybrid model is lower than the computational cost of the 3D model.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, Ansys, geometric defects, hybrid finite element model, lattice structure

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Authors: Sarah Fitzpatrick, Hossein Zare-Behtash, Konstantinos Kontis

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Traditionally, the focus of horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) blade aerodynamic optimisation studies has been the outer working region of the blade. However, recent works seek to better understand, and thus improve upon, the performance of the inboard blade region to enhance power production, maximise load reduction and better control the wake behaviour. This paper presents the design considerations and characterisation of a wind turbine wind tunnel model devised to further the understanding and fundamental definition of horizontal axis wind turbine root vortex shedding and interactions. Additionally, the application of passive and active flow control mechanisms – vortex generators and plasma actuators – to allow for the manipulation and mitigation of unsteady aerodynamic behaviour at the blade inboard section is investigated. A static, modular blade wind turbine model has been developed for use in the University of Glasgow’s de Havilland closed return, low-speed wind tunnel. The model components - which comprise of a half span blade, hub, nacelle and tower - are scaled using the equivalent full span radius, R, for appropriate Mach and Strouhal numbers, and to achieve a Reynolds number in the range of 1.7x105 to 5.1x105 for operational speeds up to 55m/s. The half blade is constructed to be modular and fully dielectric, allowing for the integration of flow control mechanisms with a focus on plasma actuators. Investigations of root vortex shedding and the subsequent wake characteristics using qualitative – smoke visualisation, tufts and china clay flow – and quantitative methods – including particle image velocimetry (PIV), hot wire anemometry (HWA), and laser Doppler anemometry (LDA) – were conducted over a range of blade pitch angles 0 to 15 degrees, and Reynolds numbers. This allowed for the identification of shed vortical structures from the maximum chord position, the transitional region where the blade aerofoil blends into a cylindrical joint, and the blade nacelle connection. Analysis of the trailing vorticity interactions between the wake core and freestream shows the vortex meander and diffusion is notably affected by the Reynold’s number. It is hypothesized that the shed vorticity from the blade root region directly influences and exacerbates the nacelle wake expansion in the downstream direction. As the design of inboard blade region form is, by necessity, driven by function rather than aerodynamic optimisation, a study is undertaken for the application of flow control mechanisms to manipulate the observed vortex phenomenon. The designed model allows for the effective investigation of shed vorticity and wake interactions with a focus on the accurate geometry of a root region which is representative of small to medium power commercial HAWTs. The studies undertaken allow for an enhanced understanding of the interplay of shed vortices and their subsequent effect in the near and far wake. This highlights areas of interest within the inboard blade area for the potential use of passive and active flow control devices which contrive to produce a more desirable wake quality in this region.

Keywords: vortex shedding, wake interactions, wind tunnel model, wind turbine

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Massimiliano Panella, Sara Bortoluzzi, Sophia Russotto, Daniele Nicolini, Carmela Rinaldi

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Osteoporosis affects more than 200 million people worldwide. About 75% of osteoporosis cases are undiagnosed or diagnosed only when a bone fracture occurs. Since osteoporosis related fractures are significant determinants of the burden of disease and health and social costs of aging populations, we believe that this is the early identification and treatment of high-risk patients should be a priority in actual healthcare systems. Screening for osteoporosis by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is not cost-effective for general population. An alternative is pulse-echo ultrasound (PEUS) because of the minor costs. To this end, we developed an early detection program for osteoporosis with PEUS, and we evaluated is possible impact and sustainability. We conducted a cross-sectional study including 1,050 people in Italy. Subjects with >1 major or >2 minor risk factors for osteoporosis were invited to PEUS bone mass density (BMD) measurement at the proximal tibia. Based on BMD values, subjects were classified as healthy subjects (BMD>0.783 g/cm²) and pathological including subjects with suspected osteopenia (0.783≤BMD>0.719 g/cm²) or osteoporosis (BMD ≤ 0.719 g/cm²). The responder rate was 60.4% (634/1050). According to the risk, PEUS scan was recommended to 436 people, of whom 300 (mean age 45.2, 81% women) accepted to participate. We identified 240 (80%) healthy and 60 (20%) pathological subjects (47 osteopenic and 13 osteoporotic). We observed a significant association between high risk people and reduced bone density (p=0.043) with increased risks for female gender, older ages, and menopause (p<0.01). The yearly cost of the screening program was 8,242 euros. With actual Italian fracture incidence rates in osteoporotic patients, we can reasonably expect in 20 years that at least 6 fractures will occur in our sample. If we consider that the mean costs per fracture in Italy is today 16,785 euros, we can estimate a theoretical cost of 100,710 euros. According to literature, we can assume that the early treatment of osteoporosis could avoid 24,170 euros of such costs. If we add the actual yearly cost of the treatments to the cost of our program and we compare this final amount of 11,682 euros to the avoidable costs of fractures (24,170 euros) we can measure a possible positive benefits/costs ratio of 2.07. As a major outcome, our study let us to early identify 60 people with a significant bone loss that were not aware of their condition. This diagnostic anticipation constitutes an important element of value for the project, both for the patients, for the preventable negative outcomes caused by the fractures, and for the society in general, because of the related avoidable costs. Therefore, based on our finding, we believe that the PEUS based screening performed could be a cost-effective approach to early identify osteoporosis. However, our study has some major limitations. In fact, in our study the economic analysis is based on theoretical scenarios, thus specific studies are needed for a better estimation of the possible benefits and costs of our program.

Keywords: osteoporosis, prevention, public health, screening

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Authors: Gail Schofield, Antoine M. Dujon, Nicole Esteban, Rebecca M. Lester, Graeme C. Hays

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Variation in diel movement patterns during migration provides information on the strategies used by animals to maximize energy efficiency and ensure the successful completion of migration. For instance, many flying and land-based terrestrial species stop to rest and refuel at regular intervals along the migratory route, or at transitory ‘stopover’ sites, depending on resource availability. However, in cases where stopping is not possible (such as over–or through deep–open oceans, or over deserts and mountains), non-stop travel is required, with animals needing to develop strategies to rest while actively traveling. Recent advances in biologging technologies have identified mid-flight micro sleeps by swifts in Africa during the 10-month non-breeding period, and the use of lateralized sleep behavior in orca and bottlenose dolphins during migration. Here, highly accurate locations obtained by Argos-linked Fastloc-GPS transmitters of adult green (n=8 turtles, 9487 locations) and loggerhead (n=46 turtles, 47,588 locations) sea turtles migrating around thousand kilometers (over several weeks) from breeding to foraging grounds across the Indian and Mediterranean oceans were used to identify potential resting strategies. Stopovers were only documented for seven turtles, lasting up to 6 days; thus, this strategy was not commonly used, possibly due to the lack of potential ‘shallow’ ( < 100 m seabed depth) sites along routes. However, observations of the day versus night speed of travel indicated that turtles might use other mechanisms to rest. For instance, turtles traveled an average 31% slower at night compared to day during oceanic crossings. Slower travel speeds at night might be explained by turtles swimming in a less direct line at night and/or deeper dives reducing their forward motion, as indicated through studies using Argos-linked transmitters and accelerometers. Furthermore, within the first 24 h of entering waters shallower than 100 m towards the end of migration (the depth at which sea turtles can swim and rest on the seabed), some individuals travelled 72% slower at night, repeating this behavior intermittently (each time for a one-night duration at 3–6-day intervals) until reaching the foraging grounds. If the turtles were, in fact, resting on the seabed at this point, they could be inactive for up to 8-hours, facilitating protracted periods of rest after several weeks of constant swimming. Turtles might not rest every night once within these shallower depths, due to the time constraints of reaching foraging grounds and restoring depleted energetic reserves (as sea turtles are capital breeders, they tend not to feed for several months during migration to and from the breeding grounds and while breeding). In conclusion, access to data-rich, highly accurate Argos-linked Fastloc-GPS provided information about differences in the day versus night activity at different stages of migration, allowing us, for the first time, to compare the strategies used by a marine vertebrate with terrestrial land-based and flying species. However, the question of what resting strategies are used by individuals that remain in oceanic waters to forage, with combinations of highly accurate Argos-linked Fastloc-GPS transmitters and accelerometry or time-depth recorders being required for sufficient numbers of individuals.

Keywords: argos-linked fastloc GPS, data loggers, migration, resting strategy, telemetry

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Authors: G. Singer, M. Golan

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Providing students with learning disabilities (LD) with extra time to grant them equal access to the exam is a necessary but insufficient condition to compensate for their LD; there should also be a clear indication that the additional time was actually used. For example, if students with LD use more time than students without LD and yet receive lower grades, this may indicate that a different accommodation is required. If they achieve higher grades but use the same amount of time, then the effectiveness of the accommodation has not been demonstrated. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the effect of including parameters related to LD and extended exam time, along with other commonly-used characteristics (e.g., student background and ability measures such as high-school grades), on the ability of ordinal decision-tree algorithms to predict exam performance. We use naturally-occurring data collected from hundreds of undergraduate engineering students. The sub-goals are i) to examine the improvement in prediction accuracy when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' in addition to the conventional indicator (exam grade) employed in most research; ii) to explore the effectiveness of extended exam time on exam performance for different courses and for LD students with different profiles (i.e., sets of characteristics). This is achieved by using the patterns (i.e., subgroups) generated by the algorithms to identify pairs of subgroups that differ in just one characteristic (e.g., course or type of LD) but have different outcomes in terms of exam performance (grade and time used). Since grade and time used to exhibit an ordering form, we propose a method based on ordinal decision-trees, which applies a weighted information-gain ratio (WIGR) measure for selecting the classifying attributes. Unlike other known ordinal algorithms, our method does not assume monotonicity in the data. The proposed WIGR is an extension of an information-theoretic measure, in the sense that it adjusts to the case of an ordinal target and takes into account the error severity between two different target classes. Specifically, we use ordinal C4.5, random-forest, and AdaBoost algorithms, as well as an ensemble technique composed of ordinal and non-ordinal classifiers. Firstly, we find that the inclusion of LD and extended exam-time parameters improves prediction of exam performance (compared to specifications of the algorithms that do not include these variables). Secondly, when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' together with grade (as opposed to grade only), the prediction accuracy improves. Thirdly, our subgroup analyses show clear differences in the effect of extended exam time on exam performance among different courses and different student profiles. From a methodological perspective, we find that the ordinal decision-tree based algorithms outperform their conventional, non-ordinal counterparts. Further, we demonstrate that the ensemble-based approach leverages the strengths of each type of classifier (ordinal and non-ordinal) and yields better performance than each classifier individually.

Keywords: actual exam time usage, ensemble learning, learning disabilities, ordinal classification, time extension

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